The New World (Dis)Order - Peter Zeihan - 72nd CFA Institute Annual Conference

This session from the 72nd CFA Institute Annual Conference covers: The threats to the global order are not simply serious but are also mortal and unavoidable, setting the stage for at least two decades of global breakdown; Exploring the intersection between demography and finance-highlighting why something much worse than the 2007-09 financial crisis is right around the corner; Forecast how political evolutions in a host of countries are interacting with the Trump administration to remake the future of every country in the world.

[@supercalifragic1551]

I've seen just about all Zeihan's talks for the past few years and they're all basically the same talk but with updated information yet somehow it doesn't get old.

[@johnszabo9981]

It's because the map hasn't changed. A geopolitical lens tends to emphasize that which is constant on the board (mountains, who's whose neighbor). This analysis doesn't explain everything but it gives a firm grounding in something like "reality" so an analyst avoids explanations from a particular metaphysical ideology. I'd love for him to give a history lecture on basically any time period / region ever.

[@davidrapalyea7727]

@@johnszabo9981 The new world order is developing as scheduled. I wonder how many people realize how momentous all this is.

[@danielclayton3170]

Exactly I view some 2 or 3 times so I can understand it all

[@davidrapalyea7727]

@@danielclayton3170 Here is my accumulated "wisdom". Golden Age 2050 THE IRON LAW OF BAD DEMOGRAPHICS. 1) Only India and USA have adequate demographics for 2050. (see charts a-d below) 2) China is a status quo power because of demographics and 800 million people who do not live in either a tier one or tier two city. 3) USA now has more hydrocarbons than god. Both energy (natural gas) and industrial feed stocks (natural gas) are both plentiful and cheap. Natural gas is a byproduct of oil fracking and will continue to be flared until pipes are installed. Peter Ziehan on hydrocarbons and demographics (1 hr) kzbin.info/www/bejne/eHnVamxvh6yDh9k a) Industrial world fertility rate bar graph (2.1 is replacement). familyinequality.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/globaltfrs.jpg b) Japan, China USA population pyramids static.businessinsider.com/image/53b2927e6bb3f7a659603d6d/image.jpg?_ga=2.184282478.936777095.1563812465-1560154508.1563812465 c) India population pyramid. www.populationpyramid.net/india/2017/ d) China population by city tier. (slow load?) sampi.co/chinas-city-tier-system/

[@Noodlepunk]

It is similar but I always learn different things everytime.

[@lexbaldwin5613]

I love listening to Peter so much you could say I am a Zeihanist shill.

[@romeotango8324]

Oyyyy veyyyy

[@userasdf1546]

Same, I bought both of his books, read all of his newsletters and read all of his Twitter posts....a modern day prophet 😂

[@jeffskent]

@@userasdf1546 Me too!

[@jhwilson00]

I am a shill too. He is doing what the media should be doing - Analyzing events and challenging your thoughts on the world

[@MarkGast]

@@userasdf1546 Sadly, he didn't read his second (audio)book at Audible.com. I prefer his voice to the guy that reads the second book.

[@daveandrew6703]

The US and Japan just finalized a trade deal today. This dude is on point.

[@shanjafri1785]

That's not that impressive. They have been in talks for a while.

[@focusedthought3348]

Shan Jafri Peter has been on about this for years...

[@Stellar15Mike]

Actually, it is impressive because in the end they submitted to American terms ...just like Peter Zeihan said they would.

[@RockJusticeVids]

Someone mentioned this conference was in May 2019. . . So this video is as recent as his previous video. . .

[@redrave404]

@@shanjafri1785 In talks since the US shredded TPP, which was the rubric that Japan and the US were going to trade through for the foreseeable 21st century. Another private geopolitical analyzer known in the financial services arena (Ian Bremmer) had been claiming the US had permanently crippled itself in east Asia with its withdrawal from TPP. This now shows where the power and weight in the relationship really is, East Asia needs an active US in the region to counter China, no one there is looking for a return to the "mandate of heaven" from the middle kingdom, but the US won't be keeping the Chinese at bay for free. If the other East Asian powers want an economic and security alliance with the US, they have to make it profitable for the US.

[@pgwingman]

Those questions were pretty polite considering the fact that Peter told them to find a new line of work.

[@junkscience6397]

Hahaha! Good one.

[@deshawnmichaelson4161]

I know right? He's a bit harsh - calls four presidents morons like it's nothing.

[@w8stral]

@@deshawnmichaelson4161 Well, his presentation is on purpose a bit... OVER the TOP. And frankly, his description as international geopolitical morons for three of the 4 is 100% spot on

[@deshawnmichaelson4161]

@@w8stral : Here's the thing: those supposed morons are the ones who navigated the shifting and sometimes impossible circumstances to put America into the cat-bird-seat. Even Obama's war on coal - now seems helpful. Even Bushe's destabilizing wars - now seem advantagious. Even Clinton's giving the econoomic farm to China - now results and the biggest emerging market ever.

[@w8stral]

@@deshawnmichaelson4161 Do you consider yourself rational? Or was your reply sarcasm?

[@dve804]

What an entertaining speaker. I can listen to Peter for hours.

[@anthonywhelan4660]

I live in Australia. My history/geography teacher, Marist Brother Vincent Daly, was a brilliant teacher and national expert on demographics. He predicted everything stated in this presentation. BTW, Shane Brennan, executive producer of NCIS Los Angeles, was also taught and inspired by Vincent Daly.

[@1schwererziehbar1]

Good stuff! Thanks for uploading, Nathan!

[@jaydugger3291]

Thank you for posting this video.

[@drdaver]

Uh...am I the only one that notices that his Superman socks have a cape????

[@SingularisVisum]

At 38:31

[@danqueseq01]

1:57 zeihan starts talking

[@matthew8153]

Daniel Quesada S. Thank you

[@RockJusticeVids]

Thank you

[@h-mart9694]

A true hero

[@FourOf92000]

careful, he's a hero

[@gustavoabreu3097]

The Brazilian government is doing economic reform and the minister of the economy is a hard-core Chicago boy.

[@georgerasmutin699]

Good luck to our friends in the favelas

[@ssssaa2]

He just tweeted that his next book disunited nations is finished and has been sent to the publishers can't wait! Obviously nobody can get the details 100% accurate that's ridiculous, but I like the big picture view he puts into several trends (demography in particular I'm interested in). He tweets about stuff pretty often too if you are interested in more.

[@texasforever7887]

Yep the demographics don't lie. Even if he is wrong on everything else, they are enough.

[@frankcrosby6222]

Read it. So epic. I loved it.

[@AJourneyOfYourSoul]

When Peter talks about the 3 countries that have threatened the mainland of the USA and ends it with the UK, that hits everyone there pretty hard.

[@charlietipton8502]

I disagree with him on that. No one cares about the War of 1812 or the Mexican War for that matter. I think he was being colorful and the real answer was far too complicated and boring. The real answer is leverage and greed. And the UK will have far more to offer the US than most of Europe very soon. And it will get security guarantees almost no one else gets.

[@joebuck943]

I agree with you. Britain is crucial to the USA and vice versa. But I think people dislike the American arrogance of it all. He is flatly stating that the uk will be America’s airstrip as Orwell wrote in 1984, and nothing more. This seems humiliating to me. I would not want to be regarded this way if I were British, as merely an American satellite. That’s why I’m hoping and have my fingers crossed that the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand form some sort of association as a way of maintaining at least some independence.

[@charlietipton8502]

I do not disagree with you. I would say that having the only other supercarriers in the world helps a lot. [And, a lot depends if the EU quickly approves a withdrawl agreement. Looks like the EU will screw UK for years to come.] The US will leverage economic advantage in exchange for full free access to the largest consumer market plus premier security guarantees. I think the UK is not in a humiliating position. What other navy will be embedded with the USN to protect their worldwide interests? A junior partner to be sure. But it is a very exclusive membership that practically guarantees survival. All the while much of the world will burn and struggle to survive. Including parts of Europe (not France). The forces that allowed the UK to drag a reluctant US into two world wars still exist. And they apply only to the UK and commonwealth. Not France. Not Germany. Not Italy. It is not a one-sided relationship. The arrogance. There is a geopolitical reason for it. It is no excuse, but there is a reason.

[@charlietipton8502]

JP, I live in Texas and am well aware of the crisis at the border. That is a far different thing than the Mexican War. Mexico was soundly defeated and lost vast areas of territory. It has been no military threat since. There have been border frictions to be sure. Most recently Mexican soldiers crossed the border and detained America law enforcement officers. Pancho Villa is another example. However I do not think these border difficulties constitute a state of war nor lead to a resentment in which the us govt seeks retribution. One evidence is the very recent assistance of the Mexican govt to limit migrants from central america traveling to the US to claim sactuary. Indeed Mexico is America's most important trading partner. I would argue it is the only essential trading partner.

[@charlietipton8502]

@J P As A Texan, I am reminded of Mexicans defending the Alamo. There are families in San Antonio who predate Anglo immigration. I think the issue is assimilation. I think a controlled number of hispanic immigrants and other immigrants is beneficial. I think your focus on ethnicity is misplaced. If you are concerned about uncontrolled, illegal immigration, you are preaching to the choir. If you are focused on keeping other ethnicities as minorities, I must confess that makes me uncomfortable and I do not agree. Nor do I know of any politician supporting ethnic quotas. I think linking immigration to high demand occupations fixes most of the problems. Requiring sponsors who assume financial responsibility for immigrants would also help.

[@texasforever7887]

Yes!!! More Zeihan

[@jaredfromaccounting9520]

;-; I’ve waited so long for another one of these conferences

[@marcuswildfire1234]

The naval part is misleading but not how many people think. The U.S. NAVY is in a building spree in most classes. For smaller most flexible situations we've brought back the OHP frigates and the LCS. Sub class is being reworked toward covert ops. Destroyers and Cruisers escorting most ships. And Carriers are being redone to have more robust power system to support new tech and to carry drones and more and newer planes. And Peter is right we are withdrawing and will be using that navy less, giving the navy time to evolve and build.

[@w8stral]

The world is in a naval DROUGHT of epic proportions. It is not that the USA is on a naval building spree it is rather the fact that nothing was built for 30 years shrinking even the USA navy, the smallest it has been, til before WWII. And the USA is by far the worlds largest navy. Let that sink in for a moment.... The worlds largest navy is at its smallest for 80 years and no other navy is close in the world.....

[@joshuahibbs4639]

@@w8stral Nobody needs to build navy ships if the USA acts as the policeman watching everyone in the jail cells but what happens when the policeman gets up to go take a nap in the office in the other room? ya the world won't know what to do.

[@chottochotto7112]

Joshua Hibbs and the world (read : Petulant children) won’t care either so long as they can blame it on the us.

[@alanwild1448]

George (and Meredith) Friedman wrote The Future of War, and in it he points out the progression of weaponry regarding the latest & greatest, which in our case is the Super-Carrier group, its cost which evolves, and its inevitable failure to inexpensive countermeasures. Our flattops fit that description of expensive overly protected technology to a tee. I fear a cheaper countermeasure such as a swarm of cheap rockets, or a less expensive (by far) hypersonic rocket or two will be the harbinger.

[@w8stral]

@J P 98% of the world does not. Now a couple countries in the middle east... yea. Of course said countries have bigger problems at home

[@lgriestra]

Excellent conference.

[@dustin628]

Love Zeihan!

[@bigraf3178]

Peter is the best in the business.

[@AntonioCostaRealEstate]

Well...he made adjustments and did keep up with current trends. So he does his homework. He sees the big picture. Good thing he left Argentina’s prognostics out of the conversation. They are not the odds on favorites. They are a disfunctional republic. His new insight on Trump ‘s policy we’re overdue and appreciated , I did not know Trump’s inner circle , and how influential they are. Kudos to him. He also threw in some nuggets , and some insightful facts and answers , so his book might be a must read. The more I see the repeating patterns on his keynote speeches , the more I am convinced that if one wants the nitty gritty details , one has to pay for his consultancy services.

[@evanjohnson1299]

Argentina has by far the best geography in the world excluding the USA. Their government is doing everything possible to screw it up, so far quite successfully. If Argentina ever develops a government that even slightly stops screwing things up they'd be the Big Dogs of South America and a top ten economy without much difficulty.

[@frankcrosby6222]

And china JUST made a huge Argentina trade deal. So begins their ascent if they can fix their sorry government.

[@w8stral]

You realize he made most of that stuff up right? About the inner workings of leaders from around the world.

[@w8stral]

@@frankcrosby6222 The trade deal was no different OTHER THAN, China now gives jobs to Argentina to process the soybeans they grow into feed cakes for animals etc. Of course the rest of the world still has to eat so... the soy Argentina is now selling slightly more of to China has to be grown elsewhere... Paraguay/USA.

[@shawnjavery]

I think part of it is that his more minute to minute analysis has a much stronger showing of his personal bias. Its harder to separate personal desires/beliefs when looking at things at a short term time scale, than over a long term where larger scale factors play a more deciding role in the out come of events.

[@julio5prado]

Hey Peter, great analysis. I just have a question, where did you get this socks?

[@avarielblackwing6613]

This Conference is from mid-May 2019.

[@RockJusticeVids]

Ohhh, of course... >_>

[@TheJules1003]

The man speaking Peter is highly intelligent and very well spoken. This man knows what heis talking about and it is the first time that I heard this man speak.

[@Ultrajamz]

TheJules1003 he is also sneaky he insults trump so libs will listen but then informs them on how well he is doing.

[@ytyt3922]

To sum it up : NEVER bet against America

[@stingray427man]

Get Khan out of London, he is the perfect example of why London is falling.

[@hosmerhomeboy]

he is a symptom, not the cause. There will be more like him until the underlying cultural problem is solved.

[@stingray427man]

thisisn'tmyrealname example means just that. There are a lot of them, which is unfortunate for the UK

[@lv3184]

thisisn'tmyrealname What “underlying cultural issue”? Khan was born in Britain and is a British citizen. What do you want to do? Turn the country into an Apartheid state where people who have the wrong skin color don’t get the same rights as others?

[@hosmerhomeboy]

@@lv3184 you're conflating culture and race friend. i wonder if that is deliberate?

[@linmal2242]

@Henryk Gödel They hate Britain? Then why are they there; why do they not emigrate. Britain has a long history of exporting people to the ends of the earth. Can they not emigrate? Will no country accept them because they are ? what?

[@QueOndaWhey]

Fantastic.

[@genemorris9256]

The video guy really dropped the ball on this one. I would love to see ALL of the slides please.

[@NathanWatsonzero]

Not my fault mate. I didn't do the raw recording.

[@genemorris9256]

@@NathanWatsonzero Video guy who did the raw recording dropped the ball.. Thanks for chiming in Nathan and thanks for posting.

[@edgeldine3499]

@@NathanWatsonzero I wouldnt feel too bad Ive seen this on a few of his other vids.. It might be they just didnt think it was important.

[@jimmysparks315]

Wow... learnt more in the last hour than in the last 10 years..

[@TheVitalover]

Watching Europe's economy is like watching the fuse on a firework....when will it blow up?

[@bestofthebest2148]

Just as soon as our military is pulled out.

[@TheVitalover]

@Boxcarcifer He also stated he thinks Europe will implode on its own. Europe has negative economic growth with negative interest rates.... I agree with your statement that Europe needs the US far more than the US needs Europe. Europe does not have the tools to help itself.

[@ireneuszpyc6684]

@@TheVitalover so many trolls: TheVitalover, Best Ofthebest,...

[@Hannodb1961]

Your comment made me think of the 1812 overture.

[@linmal2242]

@Boxcarcifer ullshit! America doesn't start these 'wars' It goes in to either neutralize or end them. That's when everything gets more complicated 'cause the US military doesn't do things by halves!

[@thezebraherd8275]

Does anybody know where he got those graphs for private investment from

[@tangosmurfen2376]

Is this video categoriesed as Motor and cars?

[@robertangelier4495]

Love his socks

[@jileel]

A new talk, nice.

[@francoluissotomayor3123]

Zeihan!

[@antongorillo7715]

Great info and insights, delivered with great humor. Thanks Peter.

[@SpiderJerusalem-jb6jx]

Where was this man when I was a rich executive? 🙌🏻😳 he could have saved me......millions

[@r64g]

What he’s describing is the emergence of Oceania. UK will be Air Strip One.

[@redrave404]

That implies "Eurasia" (Europe) is of strategic importance to "Oceania" (Anglosphere), the three power blocs were in a global struggle and Airstrip One was used against Eurasia. Peter argues a more fragmented world where interests and conflicts the US might have in Europe no longer exist, and haven't existed now for decades. Europe just doesn't matter for the US in the 21st century, it's a shrinking market that requires too many security commitments from the US to even remain a functional power/partner in world affairs. And so Europe will be left to decay, the question is if the UK will join the continent in the grave.

[@Digital_Blondie]

God I love being American.

[@Digital_Blondie]

@Leroy Jenkins Yes, being an island nation-state has many advantages such as maintaining a defensive position due to geography, cultural and ecological isolation providing social stability and ethnic/racial homogeneity allowing for a distinct and original identity, which helps nurture a strong foundation for national pride and common civic loyalty. Unfortunately you have very limited space and limited resources, creating a need for foreign trade and economic dependence. That being said, Britain still claims the largest empire to have ever existed, which lasted multiple centuries and still carries significant political and economic influence to this very moment. Britain, in my opinion, modeled the very structure of s successful nation state as is evidenced throughout nearly the entire civilized world: law, trade, government, ethics, military, even science and trade all carry the stamp of British legacy. But if you do not stop all non-white immigration and racial miscegenation you will no longer exist as it has for over a millennium. Islam should be banned or unsupported and all 1st generation non-European (non white) immigrants should be deported.

[@Digital_Blondie]

@J P The "bubble" that people have been waiting for since before the housing crisis in 2009? The only way a crash will happen is if it is allowed to happen, in which case it will be less of a crash and more of a transition to a new economy completely designed and determined by the current powers that be. The whole world runs on the American dollar, I highly doubt that America will be destroyed by economic calamity, too many failsafes, too much interdependence in the system amongst trading partners. Just keep buying silver and listening to Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente, Bill Holter, et al....they have all been predicting this crash for years and it never comes, they just move the goal line further down the field, and keep people like you scared out of their wits chasing their golden carrot.

[@Digital_Blondie]

@J P What I meant was that people have been pandering this idea for almost 2 decades and it still hasn't happened. The reason it hasn't happened is that because a vast majority of purchases are tracked using debit cards and UPC'S...entire markets are manipulated through supercomputers purchasing and selling stock at rates that balance these markets for better or for worse. Besides, they just shut down the market anytime they believe they need to curb a stock or bank run.

[@SuperMaxiiiiii]

i'm genuinely curious what his views on the coming influence of automation/AI are on his predictions of the future.

[@redrave404]

You get that a little with his Japan segment. Currently "post-industrial" nations seek the cheapest labor costs possible, that means outsourcing to nations with excess population, but corruption problems and immigration policies that favor quantity over quality. In the future energy security will take precedence, as the guarantee that the factory you have can even run is questionable given where it is on the globe. Some nations have energy resources to run a modern economy, but most don't. Almost no nations have the military capability to protect or offer security guarantees to make transporting energy resources globally possible.

[@bigmacattack7747]

He's going to be remembered as one of the great minds of our time.

[@ireneuszpyc6684]

he will be remembered as a former U.S. State Department emploee who expected the European Union to collapse, and then he died, and the European Union outlived him

[@bigmacattack7747]

@@ireneuszpyc6684 Lmao nice strawman. Have fun watching everything you think be proven wrong.

[@ireneuszpyc6684]

@@bigmacattack7747 you too expect the European Union to collapse?

[@bigmacattack7747]

@@ireneuszpyc6684 I know it will, in effect it already has. Germany has now solidly stepped into recession paired with ongoing but unspoken Italian debt crisis and a general slowdown in both regional and international imports combined further still with what might possibly be the beginnings of a recession or at least downturn in the PRC all hurtling full tilt at a bloc that guarantees it's member states economic prosperity? This is all of course ommitting rather than discounting the huge rise of anti-EU or the "euro-realist" groups committed to the dismemberment of Brussels power to do anything more impactful than scowl in the general direction of a member state nevermind those whom wish the fateful project to vanish hitherto from the earth. Yeah, call it a hunch.

[@ireneuszpyc6684]

@@bigmacattack7747 do you live in England?

[@evni6208]

Nice socks you wearing Pete

[@XalphYT]

21:30 Oh, burn! That's quite the description of a Mexican leader.

[@TreesAreCool206]

Peter is clearly brilliant, and an excellent speaker and entertainer. I'm puzzled about his opinion on gold. He said that you can't eat gold. True, but why would you try that? You can't eat hard currency either? (technically cash, yes, but that's not the point). Usually when people say that, then they reveal that they don't understand the nature of gold. (In some cases it is a smear on a topic that they don't understand and serves only to perpetuate the general ignorance that prevail on the topic.) The fact is that no government can print it, it is virtually indestructible, it is fungible, malleable, the only physical element on the periodic table of elements that doesn't corrode or go away, and it is not a liability of any institution. It is also not an investment, as it yields 0%, but that is the point of money (cash). It is that final asset class that everyone, and nation can agree to use when the international structure goes away and nations no longer trust each other, which is precisely because no single government can create it out of thin air. In fact, recently the Dutch central bank explained that gold is a sort of insurance policy for exactly those times when the international monetary falls apart. In a monetary sense, it is Alpha and Omega. Funnily enough, it is the deflationary trend caused by the demographics that he presents which will make it impossible for indebted governments to pay off there debts to the point that they inflate the real value of it away by printing currency, which in turn causes the gold price to go up. Meaning that gold RETAINS and PRESERVES its value. Also, the only reason that the term "Hard Currency" exists is because those currencies were once backed by physical gold. I'm not upset at Peter though, I think this just isn't his area of expertise, but I commend the hostess for asking that question, because the answer is a resounding YES. If any of you are interested in this topic, then you should read James G. Rickards (not a gold bug or gold dealer). In particular, you should check out his book "The New Case for Gold". It is the ultimate book that really lays out why gold is important and will once again find it's way to the heart of the international monetary systems whenever it finally cracks, which, if you've been watching the repo and interest rate markets lately (sep 19), may be nigh. But I digress. Kudos to anyone that read all of this. God Bless!

[@w8stral]

Not enough gold. Gold price would increase by ~1000X if not more. I would say Oil products/Platinum/aluminum/fertilzer are the new gold replacement as it is all energy based. Energy moves the modern world. So, name a product that requires a lot of energy and sell/trade as a commodity and that is how the world would turn without the USD or Gold. Remember before the Steam engine, everyone bartered, it was not Gold/Silver changing hands except in extreme cases between nations at the highest level. Since the world runs on oil....

[@TreesAreCool206]

@@w8stral Interesting opinion. You are right that energy moves the world, but there is no such element in existence that can do what gold does. Which is to store the energy that you spent working, in a form that is indestructible and at all times in all places around the world honored as a form of money. The idea that there isn't enough gold is a myth. It has nothing to do with quanitity of gold and everything to do with the price. After all, fiat money can be printed infinitely, so is it really hard to believe that the US dollar price of gold could increase by 1000%? In a hyper inflationary scenario, the answer is yes. In the 1970' - 1980's the gold price went from $40 to 800, so, there is a historical precedent already for the value of dollars relative to gold to diminish significatnly. James G. Rickards fully debunks the myth that there isn't enough gold, along with nearly every other myth about Gold in his book "The New Case for Gold'. I mean it. Sincerely, I do. It is not that you and I would personally exchange gold, though we actually could. It is that the financial system could easily convert to a type of gold standard by simply backing the M2 world money supply at 20% or 40% gold backing. But the price of gold would need to be closer to $10k. I just gave you the most bite size morsel of a highly complex analysis offerred by Jim Rickards. You should check him out. Also, gold, silver, and copper were in circulation for a long, long time in various parts of the world as money, because barter is such an inefficient system. You can read the bible to figure that out, and there weren't any steam engines in those days!

[@shepherdsknoll8]

Jonathan Bame , you can argue the reasons for gold’s value all day. In the end it is a commodity and just a yellow metal. It is the perception of that metal that gives it value. Many people just perceive it as a yellow metal. That’s why many would rather hold different commodities.

[@k_tess]

@@TreesAreCool206 There are many metals that are "Indestructible". I think Iridium might replace gold. It's VERY beautiful. Bismuth even more so.

[@rafaelkusumadinata2336]

hey what book she mean in 41:22 ?

[@starkbotha1129]

16:51 Um... suddenly im seeing the Iran/Yemen/Saudi attack in a WHOLE different light. Holy shit.

[@zeanamush]

2020 is one of my favorite elections because it shows how a single events can really shake everything up

[@playea123]

I was looking for someone from post 2020. Really shows how bad Trump fumbled by his response to Covid and BLM riots. 2020 might be the worse year for a president ever and William Henry Harrison died 33 days into his term.

[@totoro5527]

I did learn a lot about that woman in the 120 sec she spoke

[@XalphYT]

I am surprised that normal people are allowed to watch this video. This is the stuff you're not supposed to think about at all, ever.

[@NathanWatsonzero]

How so?

[@nickolasbrown3342]

I try to "edumacate" people with this stuff and most if it is rejected straight out. Peter offers a lot of tough pills to swallow about the nature of the world, so any force that sought to limit the supply of this information finds themselves having no need to, as the only people who find it probably have an interest in geopolitics to begin with.

[@youngsamuel1]

Throwin up the sign @2:14😄. This guy is a straight up nwo messenger. Knowingly or otherwise

[@brhughes487]

Post war honeymoon is over!

[@boobtuber06]

You like these? Listen to his one on one radio interviews: Pete's even better...

[@jaydugger3291]

Links?

[@robertm.9515]

@@jaydugger3291 just listened to this one, something different, skip ahead of the annoying host and ads though www.iheart.com/podcast/263-get-rich-education-29573615/episode/237-how-america-works-with-peter-30855000/

[@kristyann9912]

Why we keep our navy.

[@coptickansan4025]

We don't want to do away with it, I would support other nations paying for our naval protections

[@philip48230]

I’ve been impressed with Peter. But 7 years of the same speech is now getting boring. I only listen to mark what has changed. The clown cartoonist is extremely childish ....

[@alexanderhvass456]

It’s become a popular thing at a lot of conferences in Europe, across many topic fields, to have these cartoonist.

[@user-ld4qt6ci7b]

@@alexanderhvass456 do the cartoonists even understand what is going on?

[@garretttedeman]

Darn good stuff in this talk, IMHO. ...Maybe a bit "bracing" of a message from Zeihan, to use the interviewer's term, but these are a lot of issues we should be really thinking about at present time.

[@youareajackass2005]

Pete talks Russia and China individually. Is there any thoughts on them working together as to keep them selves afloat?

[@manuelwitrago6511]

china and russia may be neighbors... however their geography means that any real trade has to be done by sea since they are joined by tundra and deserts.... and given that regions history they are more likely to fight each other than trade as equals.

[@focusedthought3348]

Manuel Witrago that’s assuming China can keep its country together.

[@robertm.9515]

Russia is dying through demography, China is dying through demography. Their population centers are in completely different spheres of the planet, and you have to go through siberia without the wonders of boats to trade. They can, but there's not much they can get out of it besides maybe energy.

[@manuelwitrago6511]

@@focusedthought3348 true, however I was commenting on main question... assuming they want to trade to stay afloat, they have to develop/maintain some of the most environmental hostile region in euroasia. It would be cheaper to simply fight over it.

[@focusedthought3348]

Manuel Witrago I think Russia has a huge insurgency problem as well. I see what your saying

[@immortaljanus]

Love his Superman socks...

[@junkscience6397]

No way. His American Flag belt buckle tops them socks anyday! Probably the one subtle thing he chose to wear that day...

[@flicmydik]

Finally Peter got a well-fitting suit

[@Bmwguy2011]

Butt ugly tie though. That is worse than none.

[@Bmwguy2011]

Butt ugly shirt, Too. Maybe he should just wear A t shirt. Would be an improvement. Canadian rural fashion, I guess.

[@flicmydik]

@@Bmwguy2011 Since when is Iowa Canadian?

[@MindandQiR1]

After watching this whole video, it's impossible to be cheerful about anything.

[@cliffsuddaby6581]

If your a liberal I suppose .

[@ericmanget4280]

The guy is full of shit. He's just trying to sell books. Do a deep dive into any one of the 50 topics he rapidly brushes by and you can quickly prove him wrong.

[@Condor1970]

At 48:45, the one thing about Gold he says is true. You can't eat it. If the world ever gets so bad that you really "need" gold, then having it is pointless. You'll be better off stocking up on food and ammunition.

[@aleksanderwierzejski1346]

What do you know about ego of Jarosław Kaczynski of Poland?

[@CZac2k12]

Dear America, Mercy! It was a joke!! Sincerely, Canada 🤪

[@ocnier]

You re-elected Trudeau.... Your wounds are self inflicted......

[@Noodlepunk]

Tell Alberta a secede and join America.

[@gusarmstrong563]

Is he describing the fruition of PNAC?

[@opetke]

Okay, that illustrator is pissing me off. Seriously...what is with the nursery room lettering and the artist? This is a kid show? Peter, as usual, was fantastic.

[@rjsfhl]

The illustrator/cartoonist . . . the setting of this presentation is a conference and it is the conference attendees paying for the speaker. Following a speaker's presentation, many conferences I've attended have table discussions about what they have just heard from the speaker. The illustrator/cartoonist's work is posted on the walls around the room and serves as a useful tool to ensure lively post-presentation discussion. I've never seen that material used as like a type of meeting minutes or documentation. It's a conference tool for the participants in attendance. BTW - we might should thank the conference for their free sharing of what they paid for. I for one very much appreciate it. Joshua: my comments here aren't directed at you as there were many comments that questioned the illustrator as I read down the page. It's just my explanation wound up by chance underneath you and wasn't intended to be irritating.

[@bruhmoment8108]

I find it laughable that Zeihan called Chrystia Freeland one of the smartest person in the western civilization, it's almost as if he was being sarcastic here.

[@josephzsoka874]

LOL...he was,

[@bruhmoment8108]

@@josephzsoka874 for some reason, I'm still not sure

[@josephzsoka874]

@@bruhmoment8108 how do you feel he intended the comment ?

[@bruhmoment8108]

@@josephzsoka874 well she is part of Trudeau govt. given zeihan's profession, he has all the reason to stay in her good books just in case some need arises in future.

[@josephzsoka874]

@@bruhmoment8108 Good point... but Peter is American, what reason would an American need to pander to a Canadian politician ?

[@spacecatboy2962]

not a speck of gold? Yeah a genius

[@TobeornottooB]

"Gold Fever" is a mental illness.

[@wz8881]

How new is this?

[@NathanWatsonzero]

Around may time

[@malamati007]

What is CFA?

[@danielclayton3170]

Great job 👍

[@billdomb]

Seen one of his presentations, seen 'em all.

[@kaltwies]

October 21st 2022... 😮

[@erickrcisneros]

This is my 3rd time watching his talk, it’s entertaining, but it’s the same down to the jokes. I like his style

[@directedby100]

That's revealing. He's an entertainer. His analysis is very selective. He gives bullet points with little background or context or explanation. On first viewing a Thiel talk it's convincing, far less so after viewing other presentations by him. Seriously.

[@ariaprianto658]

Woww...

[@bobmeyer854]

"Dystopian vision?" Not from my perspective as an American. I've always been in the Pat Buchanan camp on foreign policy. The Cold War has been long over. It's long past time to stop upholding this "international order" that American politicians are so fond of. I would be all for this new world that Zeihan is predicting.

[@Greg_P611]

Peter I love listening to your speeches but do you ever change it up?

[@tc9634]

I'm in the UK and I'm not quite so pessimistic about our prospects. We have better infrastructure than the US in a smaller area. We have a better education system with basically no dropout and we attract a lot of international students per capita. a good river and canal network for our size., we're a small cohesive island easy to defend and a non-threatening nuclear power to be taken seriously, we have a decent amount of oil and gas reserves in the North Sea, and probably decades of shale reserves. And already we're at 1/3 of energy needs from renewables and we're building enough so that by 2050 latest we'll be energy independent. I'm guessing that will mean renewables capacity for >100% demand + maybe 1/3 demand covered by nuclear capacity for when it is isn't windy. We're far more of a trading nation than the us because we're more business friendly whereas the US doesn't need to be (30% GDP Vs 10% GDP), and our blue water navy, experienced diplomatic corps and "soft power" should give us the ability to exploit a disordered world as the hq of many multinationals. our military is probably second or close second to the US in terms of equipment and experience (China may have more but ours are better trained, equipped and experienced). We have had universal free healthcare since 1948 and our life expectancy is still rising. Our demographics aren't quite as favourable, we're a little narrower in the millennials section but nothing like the rest of Europe, and if we embraced migration we could have a lot more 20 and 30 something's working and consuming but with effectively no debt from the uk. I think the decline of oil, gas and financials will be good for the UK in the long run. For too long our governments have actually been too internationally focused and there are big swathes of the country that have been economically neglected for decades. I voted remain for the economic reasons for after watching Zeihan I wouldn't say I'm pro-Leave but I am pro-if you're gonna leave just do it already. I still think free market access is worthwhile but only if it isn't exclusive and allows the UK to make other trade deals. What I think we have to offer the US Access to London: even after Brexit it will still be #1 in Europe for finance, there's a lot of inertia, human capital and reputation behind London and the demographics imply a capital rich domestic economy too. In any event, big cities don't die. #2 the cultural ties don't count for nothing. #3 we are always going to be your #1 ally, period. #4 an extra 67 million English speaking consumers, with integrated established cross-atlantic trade links, who don't complain, want what you have and can onl grow 60% of food needs #5 2 supercarriers coming online at the exact time we need them and you don't, were going to repay the heavy lifting you have done #6 an intelligence network probably comparable with the us Russia and China #7 a bases all over the world where you need them (when keeping a Nimitz/Ford on standby is too much) - Cyprus, Diego Garcia etc #8 cheaper skilled educated proper English workforce in country with established transatlantic transit routes and trade Framework and common law system (on an absolute basis and because we have lower GDP/capita ppp) And we've been through 2 world wars and the 70s which hit us way harder.

[@danielrobertson3589]

I understand and respect Peter Zehain work as very clear. I would suggest that a cultural issue regarding Brexit is been ignored by the EU Commission. A lot of us voted Remain, yet we are not going to crash the UK in spite of logic -just because. There will be a day after Brexit and it will suck. Then we will work to repair and rebuild which we have become very good at. Those who kick us when down won't be our enemies, far too dramatic for the UK. Yet I don't think that we will rush to help when desired as opposed to when needed. A harsh start to the 21st century.

[@shawnjavery]

Its relative. Compared to the 20th century I think this has been a pretty good start to the century.

[@ajsfa]

Isn't Britian supposed to become majority Islamic within the century? How is that going with regard to social cohesion and stability?

[@shawnjavery]

@@ajsfa Where'd you hear that from? There's only 4% right now.

[@danielrobertson3589]

@J P Riigghhttt. Though I do actually drink tea and I remember to stick my pinky out.

[@jimb.942]

I enjoy listening to him but he sounds like a fiscal conservative. Everything money and resources. He doesn’t address things like the negative repercussions of open borders and assimilating people who are hostile to your culture and system of governance. I know you can’t put a money figure to it but it doesn’t make any less important.

[@davecorrea1061]

dude wears superman socks... with capes attached

[@GDWII]

Like a boss with those Superman socks

[@multiHappyHacker]

oh come on cut out before the thunderous applause he always gets?

[@phatster88]

Shale oil is run on debt and has never generated profit thus is unsustainable. It will still run as long as the Fed runs QE4 and more, and "investors" don't ask for profit. Once the Fed fudges up, all bets are off and US stops being energy net exporter.

[@jevgenijliogkij7849]

Show this to Boris Johnson about trade deal with U.S.

[@helmsscotta]

Every time someone mentions Boris Johnson, I see him driving a reasonably priced car.

[@frankcrosby6222]

@@helmsscotta lmfao. Love it

[@glasshammer291]

How does the absorption of the Hong Kong economy help or hurt China?

[@jon782]

I find it difficult for anyone to really influence the financial district in London, since it is not a part of the UK. The queen is not its sovereign and its technically its own city-state and has been since the late 1600s i believe. The property owners Ie, companies vote who's mayor and they have there own little government. I don't think the UK really has the authority to agree on changing much there. Idk if this guy isn't aware of this, or his is and has an idea how it won't be a problem.

[@coasteraddict10]

Agree with this, and it's why the City will forever be the leading financial centre in the world, it's also arguably the best situated geographically as the link centre between all the financial centres.

[@sweenie58]

I wouldn't be so quick to discredit the belt and road.

[@Bobelponge123]

The Chinese are building roads to deliver goods from their factories to foreign countries, but they won’t have people in the factories by the time it’s finished

[@steelcannibal]

Ammunition, and toilet paper, and water purification product's, will do far more than any monetary commodity ever will!

[@jackgoldman1]

Peter, the US Treasury issues gold and silver coins as real money. Fed issues counterfeit currency debt notes.

[@regolith1350]

SHOW THE SCREEN!!! So frustrating grrrrrrrrr.

[@funkervogt47]

27:00 - Zeihan was wrong and Hard Brexit didn't happen. 47:00 - Zeihan was wrong about Trump being reelected. Hmm...I think his prediction that China will just, like, fall apart, will also fail.

[@Premium_ZoomerTrader]

Lmfao

[@JA-vz1nl]

Something new out of his past talks that I hadn't heard yet, I like listening to him and found his call on the Russia - Ukraine invasion right on the nose. After hearing this one though, I didn't know at that time he gave the probability of Trump being reelected as high as 90%. Given that Biden officially won the election in 2020, not all of Zeihan's calls have been accurate.

[@RJStockton]

The woman goes away at 1:55.

[@GeorgeSemel]

I get his newsletter, and he goes even into more interesting details or things. It's entirely spot-on for the most part. He has also gone into George H.W. Bushes taste in Socks.

[@tommyodonovan3883]

The last 15 min when Peter answered questions must have sent chills down the Englander's spine. But look on the bright side....At least NOW.... you are somebody's BITCH! I'm Canadian....We play 2nd fiddle to Mexico....they come before Canada in America's geopolitical outlook.

[@Alorand]

Has Ziehan ever mentioned the role that a certain Middle East Lobby plays in charting US foreign policy?

[@ot23234]

OH Gawd!

[@ScorpionRanchTX]

@47:46 Why are business conservatives against Trump? I thought they would like the results of these trade deals.

[@SteezyRider]

Instability. Global order=global markets. You lose one, you lose the other; at least the ease of doing business as it stands at the moment.

[@w8stral]

Trump is a rather odd conundrum. I think half of what he says is just for political wrangling. Which half? Who knows. At this point I ignore what he says 100% and look only at the actions. So far, he is giving lightheizer free reign and I can only agree in principle with what is going on. Their messaging is beyond putrid though.

[@matthew8153]

Scorpion Ranch They’ve gotten used to easy profits from outsourcing America’s jobs and don’t want to lag even to start working again. The CFO at my company only comes in once in a blue moon to surf the Internet. 100% of our manufacturing is done in China.

[@lexi2706]

Wall St. and multinationals hate what Trump is doing re: trade with China. Trump is re-orienting global supply lines to our allies/other liberal democracies and divesting from China. Wall St IBs like Goldman Sachs and PE guys like Swartzman have made a lot of money the last 30 years gutting out US industry that have decimated rural and urban areas. Even now, when it's well-known that China's CCP has been persecuting their religious minorities & their human rights abuses (along with labor and environmental abuses), these finance guys are still apologists.

[@Hannodb1961]

The short version is: Nothing much has changed since his previous talk a few years ago.

[@codysodyssey3818]

That's because his analysis is broad strokes stuff. Everything he says as far as I can tell has been confirmed by events happening in the last 5 years. He does refine his analysis as time goes on of course.

[@Hannodb1961]

@@codysodyssey3818 I know. If you're a strategic forecaster, and your speech remains the same and relevant over 10 years - it might be boring for the audience, but it means you're good at your job.

[@marinokids123]

Feminist reporter, just moved to Wyoming, 👍

[@Based_Blue96]

who?

[@davidvavra9113]

Town Class? You can tell this guy's from Iowa.

[@gustavodiaz4689]

😎🇺🇸

[@roxyraccoon8856]

I'm not a fan of monetizing everything but the Gold comment at the end is fundamentally incorrect because Gold for trade pre-dates Christ. So, giving money and factories to our competitors could also _not_ work out the way you claim it will.