The Next Alpine Fault Earthquake in New Zealand

[@JonKloske]

Great job to everyone who presented here and the whole team behind it. This is really fascinating stuff, and it's always amazing to watch how you go about the science of determining what actually has happened in the past. I also loved the final presentation which used the data to make some really useful recommendations. A perfect little hour-long example of how science works and benefits us all.

[@slooob23]

Very interesting data, the lakes are especially compelling considering two lakes at either end of the region have produced identical results. So it seems as though we are heading for a sub 300 year recurrence interval, time to get ready folks.

[@englandkev1]

Thanks for sharing this video. Let's hope that people watch and understand it...

[@lizhilliar5479]

Any update videos on the science of the potential quake? Will look on the GNS CHANNEL Great job on explaining the complex science 1:32

[@huttboynz4422]

That LIDAR mapping is amazing!!

[@blackiecat4984]

What would this mean for the main rivers, eg the Waimakariri River in North Canterbury?

[@3tapsnu0ut87]

The LATEST update here was one yr ago?

[@mightymiffed]

This is great, thanks for putting it up (I know I’m 5 years late to this)

[@matthewhackett1710]

There are quite a few large 8+ earthquakes due now... I wonder if there are times when they all chime together? One big one due in Istanbul sets off Greek / Appennine / African Rift / Mediterranean, sets off Himalayas, sets off Japan, sets off New Zealand and Alaska/Cascades, sets off California, sets off Andes.

[@riverAmazonNZ]

Very interesting stuff. Unfortunately I hear a surprisingly high number of NZers say things like, “Hardly anyone lives there so who cares.” That kind of attitude helps no one.

[@lordchickenhawk]

In three days it will be 6 years since this was uploaded. So only 44 years left 'til either the hammer has fallen or another round or two gets chambered in that weird looking wheel gun at 35:15 I thought it might be a Ruger Single Ten but then I saw the centerfire cartridges and the six pawl ratchet. Ok, Photoshop, you almost got me again.

[@pgcom100]

this lecture is way complex. have to find something about alpine fault that is more about possible threat, signs & how to deal with it

[@flowinsounds]

why on earth are you guys obsessed with the alpine fault? Sure, it used to be significant, providing a connection between the northern faults via the bridging faults - the last of which was in marlborough. Given that the currently active bridging fault is in ChCh, how is it supposed to connect to the alpine fault? The only way through the alps is down via twizel - which is where we see the actual earthquakes. The alpine fault seems like a fixation without evidence beyond historic

[@GNSscience]

flow in The alpine fault is a plate boundary fault and runs the length of the South Island. Over the last 8000 years it has produced 24 earthquakes (on average every 330 years), the last one was about 300 years ago. It is now considered to be capable of rupturing at any time to produce a very big earthquake. Scientists therefore do not think we should be complacent about it, and the more we know, the better prepared we can be for when the event occurs.

[@flowinsounds]

***** All I can find is statistical predictions. Where is the model? Surely by now you've got a supercomputer somewhere modelling the plate movements? I'd love to see a model that can account for existing faults, taking into account the plate consistency, substrate and rock layers etc etc. If you could point me in the direction of a model then that would be great. I must confess to finding it hard to accept predictions based solely on stats.

[@flowinsounds]

so, no model.

[@GNSscience]

flow in Thanks for your interest. You are correct that we are confined to using statistical records from the past in order to forecast future hazards. www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Our-Science/Natural-Hazards/Earthquakes/Earthquake-hazard-modelling/National-Seismic-Hazard-Model . The lack of earthquakes on the Alpine Fault for the last 300 years makes the probability of it producing a significant earthquake in the near future higher, not lower.

[@flowinsounds]

***** that's assuming that the underlying mechanism that drives the fault is still driving it in the same way. Statistics are great, but normally science requires a model...

[@addyrule1520]

I've had 2x dreams of huge earthquakes and tsunamis in Christchurch. That's was after the big one. It's was so real I could smell the sea and saw hundreds on birds flying away.

[@RenaWith]

thanks for doing this video

[@skatedd2451]

The question is whose fault is it

[@hindenburgminsky7638]

The fault line makes me up all night!

[@julesc296]

9yrs counting

[@larryrayner3826]

hmmm me thinks you got the wrong coast

[@briantones5993]

Larry Rayner, they correct,, The fault runs from Jackson bay up the middle of the South Island and runs under Nelson to The Capital Wellington then Branches into two more faults..

[@justsomeyoutubecommentorwi4378]

@@briantones5993 So if the fault lines break The island cuts in half?

[@suehowie152]

@@justsomeyoutubecommentorwi4378 It's gone off before and hasn't done that..

[@AvgeekCarGeek]

Love your GNS Keep it up

[@elisabethfrankish4947]

Very interesting thank you

[@juliawasright9623]

Alpine Fault the fastest in world on land? How can it be so with 35mm year slip rate at Wallace Creek, Carrizo Plain, California? Offset stream beds don't lie.....avoid the 'est', its iffy at best !

[@ryanshaw7573]

think you need to readress your lindslide threat given the kiakoura quake , kinda blows this vid out of the water

[@annlittle2664]

So much for land value

[@juliawasright9623]

Avoid the 'est' it is 'iffy' at best...should read.

[@coldshot5555]

Very educational/I LUV IT!

[@coldshot5555]

Thanks for the thumbs up Sherry...YOU ROCK!

[@kytddjj]

+

[@mattmarriott6929]

Kaikoura earthquake, the day of the supermoon: Google Mountains built within minutes take thousands of years to crumble IS mountains continuously rising for millions of years

[@ninja_derp7675]

Ha ha ha yeahhhh.... I live on the alpine fault line. I'm screwed for when it goes off. It's supposed to be a magnitude 8.0 I ain't looking forward to it.

[@stankeepuss]

Ninja_Derp no, it's supposed to be 8.9+, and it will most likely rip New Zealand in half. I read that in 3 different books, I'm not the person that came up with it.

[@justsomeyoutubecommentorwi4378]

@@stankeepuss You're right imma move to damn Auckland

[@guyincognito.]

@@justsomeyoutubecommentorwi4378 I think I'd rather endure the earthquake than live in Auckland.

[@justsomeyoutubecommentorwi4378]

@@guyincognito. West Coast would be gone and split into two

[@lordchickenhawk]

@@stankeepuss Given that these seem to happen relatively frequently (in terms of geological scales of time) I doubt that even a 9.0 will actually "rip NZ in half". It would already have done so if that were the case. The NZ economy on the other hand...

[@AboveInShadow]

That fault is not moving, South NZ east coast is the real problem.

[@bobsmith3291]

Did she just say “daa-tar”

[@chrisgriffin9164]

Your Job is no good while there is fracking. and drilling and mining and Genetic engineering mixed with HAARP within the skies. you are living in the old days.

[@Butter_bread_]

On the west coast we don't do fracking or drilling except for earthquake drilling (drilling into the fault line.) And we defiantly don't have HARRP here.

[@chrisgriffin9164]

B Butters yes.. you do have HAARP. I have many photos of HAARP active in the sky. they use HAARP for sound waves to read what is hidden under the earth, that is why so much land is being snapped up for lots of money.. not for what is on the land.. but more for what is underneath. ( example. - crude oil ) you need to research so you can identify what is what.

[@swissmoose]

um.. what.. haarp is a failed science experiment, to use frequency to model the upper atmosphere.. for communications.. map oil?.. its an antenna array in alaska ..not ground penetrating radar on the west coast..

[@jeroenjansen2709]

Agree, the threat of HAARP is real. There is wordwide manipulation of the weather taking place. These electro magnetic rays at ultra low frequency can cause the stresses of the tectonic plates to release and move, it is like church bells releasing an avalanche.