The Numbers: A turning point in Toronto-St. Paul's

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.
For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto-St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here: / thenumberspod
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1:50 Toronto-St. Paul's Byelection
23:50 Alberta NDP Leadership
26:52 Premiers' Approval Ratings
34:22 Mailbag
39:12 Quiz
48:04 Numbers of the Week

[@ianleslie6971]

It was good of youse to broadcast as long as you did. People ARE engaged, a great many Canadians have been watching a 9 year train wreck. It's become obvious that the ideologues don't care about a healthy economy which is what pays the bills. The tent cities are in cities and small towns across this country.The food banks are breaking.. The incoming party will not just be seeing an empty cupboard , but the house has been mortgaged to the level of bankruptcy.

[@QWZXM]

Summed up pretty good.

[@DouglasdV-x9l]

And Eric.... congratulations on the quiz!!

[@keithallsebrook2797]

Thx for all your hard work Monday night. It was the first time I found you fellows.

[@eighteenin78]

The Liberals say they are going to listen more - so we're all good.

[@gregd183]

😂😂😂😂 good satire

[@michaelshebetun4215]

Also, in York we didn’t have conservative MPP for ages, but our family votes every election and finally we got through with Michael Ford. We can vote conservative MP in as well! I’m ordering biggest lawn sign ever. 💪

[@saladgirl2062]

Could Christea loose her seat 🤔

[@JamesMcNeillmcneilmortgages]

Winn loss put the provincial Liberals at a place where they are still in.

[@dianemezzatesta3149]

Pierre was there going house to house with the conservative MP!

[@memph7610]

49:40 I wonder if some of this is a case of people who think anything that's not revolutionary socialism is right wing, or people who think all of Canada's major political are left wing and the CPC is just not as left wing as the rest? People who define left/right relative to what they view as the ideal political leaning, rather than the national median?

[@michaelshebetun4215]

What you guys think about why Liberals would delay general election? Could it be that their chances would not be worse one year from now, but if let’s say economy improves, inflation slows down and they can push for boc rate decrease they might regain some popularity and some recent corruption/foreign interference subside?

[@RAM-KINGOFTRUCKS]

Bring it Home Conservatives 🏡 👌👍

[@johnny75channel]

The longer the LPC holds onto this slow motion disaster, the worse it’s gonna get .. the longer jagmeet and his people hang onto this the worse it gets for them as well ..

[@macdaddymgiarc]

I have a liberal MP in my riding and am very motivated to vote she/her out come election day 2025.

[@jamesburrows3711]

Most Canadians have changed the channel on the Federal Liberals. I wish the federal election was this Monday. They just can’t STOP spending money! They are just so disconnected from the reality of main stream Canadians.

[@frickineh6703]

You nailed it, the general public have been tightening their belts for years now. The liberals answer is to spend, spend, spend. So out of touch. I’m not against safety nets, just not at the expense of our economy and nation.

[@shuvmesumknowlegde]

They don't have anyone to take the helm.

[@thegreatdominion949]

So I guess now you have to give the CPC an A+ grade and the LPC an F (D at least).

[@blindeye1258]

They have to do something. The Liberals responding to every gut punch with "we will continue to do what we're doing" is baffling.

[@ace6285]

I enjoyed staying up so late with you guys. What a rush it was in the end!! So much fun, finally.

[@SylviusTheMad]

My local BC United candidate knocked on my door recently. I felt so bad for her; it's not her fault. But they're all going to lose, Kevin Falcon is to blame, and the candidates know this.

[@cementmanorwoman]

I am a member of the Liberal Party but voted for Conservative for the byelection. I hate PM.

[@verajaynepalmer]

I was a liberal, left that cult years ago. Congrats!😊

[@johnny75channel]

Before the vote I called this one at a CPC win by 3% .. pretty good call..

[@GraemeHein]

I know many long term liberals who will never vote for conservatives. I am shocked that the turnout was so high. People who have dinated millions are over this. Over

[@realmickeyd2306]

Federal NDP should not sit on their hands or they may swirl down the same drain in the end.

[@WanukeX]

15:00 - Got into an argument with someone last week on this exact point about the MBNDP winning Tuxedo, the numbers said the MBNDP would probably win, but I apparently didn’t understand how “safe” that seat was and that manitoba governments never pick up seats in by elections so the result was truly shocking, yada yada. It’s just pure woo woo logic that the canadian political class seems to take as gospel.

[@RichardTaves-wc3qo]

Always the greatest event each week to listen to you both. Love it.

[@MitchellTremblays]

you guys rock! merci beacoup!!

[@DouglasdV-x9l]

Polster blindness.... Do you consider that with controversial figures like Ford (or Trump) people polled respond with what they think you want to hear... and not how they actually plan to vote?

[@Jarsia]

I stayed up and watched and I think it really started to get interesting about 20 minutes after you guys signed off. On the discord I'm on a few other guys were staying up watching, and I said "Eric and Philippe signed off at the wrong time"😂

[@martindixon1]

They will win St Pauls by more the next time.

[@VintageGarden-e9d]

I was watching it when the last vote count at 4:43 am

[@stoned_at_the_nail_salon]

Vote early vote conservative