The Roads to Black Swan Events in 2025

[@nonnyena4267]

*_If you're here following the 1/9/'25 3pm [CST] video where Belle sends you here for the "Club of Rome" reference:_* Watch 1st 30 secs as Belle explains what _"Black Swan Events"_ are, or you get these are *_unlikely_*_ predictions."_ 1:59 She starts talking about TFG "losing" the conspiracy crowd & uses the example of the Club of Rome's American Union thought experiment.

[@jonathanrich9281]

Sweet, thanks! This is indeed why I’m here.

[@nonnyena4267]

@jonathanrich9281 👍 Just glad i made it before you got here!😅 [I post the Ranch and all variations of the Roads videos on Bluesky -- hoping to direct folk this way for calm, accurate, researched information to counter what we're facing for the next few years -- but it takes me *_forever_* to post if i add "teasers" -- i have "Zombie Finger Syndrome" & i'm confined to a virtual keyboard for now.🙄 Seriously: 20 minutes for what i posted here... *ANYWAY* I was concerned i wouldn't get here in time to do my bit o' Rule ,303ing It was really cool of the Crew to pin it, so that'll help folk, too.😉

[@MkMOriginal]

Melania and Trudeau run away together to France. 👋

[@ushere5791]

i wouldn't wish her on trudeau, even though she clearly has the hots for him. she's as awful as her husband.

[@CPGurchGurch-ki8xw]

@@MkMOriginal 😂

[@kathleenmescal6370]

😅

[@andyjulia]

Melania & Elonia run away together

[@perigraph6644]

To quote Burt Ward as Robin [actual quote, btw]: "Holy unsatisfying endings, Batman!"

[@scottpederson952]

Canada outbids the USA trying to buy Greenland by $11,768.00 - one more than we need.

[@cherylb6755]

😉

[@margaretnicol3423]

... and buys Alaska for the original price of $7.2 million?

[@sherribarman915]

Yup

[@kaydrew5170]

😂😂😂

[@jabbermocky4520]

Good one! Dark but good.

[@lettiemulder6732]

Swan lake playing on Russian TV after Putin dies.

[@robbylock1741]

Swan lake plays on Russian TV after Putin "has an accident" and is hospitalized and later dies of from injuries from his fall from a window.

[@jabbermocky4520]

Russians get Swan Lake whenever their leaders f-up. We just get more unwanted advertising. It's the only real difference in "media coverage" between Russia and the USA.

[@DarkSyster]

@@robbylock1741 from a basement window

[@StefanManjakov]

🤞🙏

[@WhatIsThatAvi]

I actually want this more than I want to see First Lady Donnie gone.

[@romazone101]

I have never been so enthusiastic for an alien invasion. Man are we screwed.

[@enricogattone432]

"Extraterrestre, portami via Voglio una stella che sia tutta mia Extraterrestre, vienimi a pigliare Voglio un pianeta su cui ricominciare" "Extraterrestre" Eugenio Finardi 1978

[@byecatsstacey7467]

I'm rooting for the math on Apophis to be wrong

[@reynard61]

I should have voted for the asteroid... 🙄😒

[@Hi_Im_Akward]

Agent orange kicks the bucket, conspiracy theories spark about his death and a riot happens. The right completely fractures.

[@thesquirrelchase-exploreph5635]

This actually seems fairly predictable.

[@romazone101]

we can only hope!

[@DaDunge]

Aside from the last it'sa grey Rhino, one day trump will die and when he does there will be conspiracy theories about his deaht and the right will riot.

[@janice193]

I like it! 😂

[@w0ody16]

Extremely possible.

[@WickedDandelion]

Black Swan Event: Trump gets Barron checked for hereditary bone spurs. If he's going to wage wars on 3 fronts, he'll need a draft.

[@thatjeff7550]

And in doing so, finds out he isn't Barron's father--Don Jr. is.

[@kathleendepew1683]

@@thatjeff7550hahaha😂

[@jamesmccreery250]

Accidentally finds out Baron is his grandson

[@jamesmccreery250]

​@@thatjeff7550lol I typed before reading, You totally beat me to it.

[@heartofdawn2341]

Trump and Musk are lost in a fatal cybertruck fire

[@peggyparish364]

You have to include Vance. President Vance is a nightmare

[@peaceout6285]

​@@peggyparish364 Mike Johnson would be absolutely awful as well!

[@tonihodges5972]

😂

[@davidbrennan2728]

Black swan event : House republicans impeach Trump.

[@stephaniewilson3955]

That is wishful thinking. Though his insanity and the way the USA is tanking thanks to his insanity might make them think about it.

[@jollyjackass]

I could actually see this happening if not a 25th. If nothing else Vance is low key enough they could push some of their crazier policies without trump announcing it in a 2am tweet

[@echowentz5717]

@@stephaniewilson3955I don’t see it as wishful thinking. Read Democracy in Chains and recognize how much structural power the Kochs have built via Project 2025. If Trump ceases to be a ‘useful idiot’ to their plans? He will be discarded.

[@bakakafka4428]

Sure. My bet would be on Trump appearing in dress saying he's trans before that.

[@carolbulmer8253]

May it be so🙏

[@kapmando]

Not gonna lie, for a minute, I thought it was “roads to Swan Lake Events“ and I was immediately checking the news for stuff about Putin

[@WhatIsThatAvi]

You’re not alone. ;)

[@donaldmrambojr5695]

🌍 I applaud you Belle for identifying & calling out conspiracy theories on the world stage...🌎

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

Belle's vision is keener than most!

[@shawnr771]

Good morning Donald.

[@katboss4886]

Morning Donald. Have a good day ✌️😀

[@margaretnicol3423]

@@victoriajohnson-parratt6975 Yes. Rose colored spectacles should be banned!

[@adotjon78]

​​​​@@victoriajohnson-parratt6975How do you figure? She's been wrong about everything for 4 years. Remember when she got you all excited that he would get locked up? She told you that he couldn't win. She told you he'd be disqualified to run. Do you like false hope and lies?

[@crakowski]

Trump has a massive stroke and no one notices.

[@7screamingdizzbusters]

Im waiting for a "Swan Lake " event 👍

[@marcellacruser951]

I'm with you there.

[@StefanManjakov]

Playing on Russian TV on loop.🤞🙏

[@thomasbraeking6225]

@@StefanManjakov Does that mean it will also be looped on Fox/KGB Propaganda?

[@dankolar6066]

"One of the extraordinary things about human events is that the unthinkable becomes thinkable." - Salman Rushdie

[@ninemoonplanet]

Or be like Margaret Atwood and watch how some things keep happening and people think those things can't happen.

[@shawnr771]

Thank you for the commentary, Belle. MAGA adherents have an epiphany and realize they have been grifted.

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

Good morning Shawn! Now that would be quite the epiphany!

[@nathanh6439]

I can't help but think most have already come to that realization by the way they vehemently deny it and are, perhaps, just too proud to admit it.

[@HarryDirtay]

Ha. I bet the sun envelops the Earth before that happens😂

[@JimHolder-pk2kk]

@@victoriajohnson-parratt6975 At least the road to Damascus is a little safer for MAGA to travel now.

[@WhatIsThatAvi]

@@HarryDirtay The thing is, it’s already happening.

[@brettAnichols]

Crab people escape their Antarctic confinement.

[@margaretnicol3423]

Black swans really do exist so the chances of something coming true is very possible. Let's hope it's the right one.

[@CPGurchGurch-ki8xw]

**Black Swan Event** i learned something new today, as usual when i tune in to the channel. Thanks! I like it! 💜

[@Dark_Jaguar]

The key to a "black swan event" (or the even bigger rarity, an out of context event, such as if the mountains of the world opened their eyes and started moving around), is that they are UNPREDICTABLE.

[@yvonneplant9434]

We already went thru one recently. The SARS- Cov2 pandemic.

[@SnowyOwlPrepper]

Look up Dragon King event. Beyond that complexity science is an area that tells about such systems.

[@CPGurchGurch-ki8xw]

@@SnowyOwlPrepper omw

[@sdfouhasdouhlse]

Mine: a breakthrough in fusion energy research that is net positive and cost-effective enough to be commercially viable. We did say "possible, but not probable". And recent projects have shown more promise than ever before. One can hope. 🙂

[@roadswithbeau]

That would be a pretty awesome black swan event, wouldn't it?

[@cherylb6755]

I second that emotion!

[@sharonrose295]

I just keep flashing back on that Next Generation episode where the Romulans were experimenting with using a mini black hole to power their ship and really bad shit happens. And Doc Oct's mini sun from the Tobey McGuire Spiderman. Like, I know those are fiction, but a containment breach like Chernobyl only with a fusion reactor, rather than the fission reactors we currently have, scares the hell out of me. We can't really contain gravity and if we let that fused mass accumulate to a point necessary for net positive energy, what technology do we have in place to keep it from becoming its own star, sucking in all available matter?

[@christopherapel1712]

May I add an even more unlikely layer to your's , The government pours massive amounts of funding into scaling it up to a practical plant size , and then even more massive amounts to subsidize building actual energy producing plants ! In stead of OUR NORMAL PATTERN of politicians accepting BILLIONS of dollars a year in campaign contributions from fossil fuel companies , and then just coincidentally quashing the new technology for decades upon decade ...

[@SASAS-ru8ys]

@@sharonrose295 You can rest easy. Fusion reactors contain extremely low amounts of "active" material. For example ITER is planned to go to down to a millionth of a bar (!) before heating up to fusion temperature (at fusion temperatures, the pressure is higher but the mass contained in the fusion vessel stays the same). I.e. the whole gigantic machine just contains a few grams of gas / plasma and its density is much lower than air. So if air doesn't spontaneously form black holes, fusion vessels won't either. And if things were to leak: We're talking about a few grams of tritium escaping into the air and dispersing. Cosmic rays naturally produce _much_ more than that each year in the atmosphere, so i wouldn't loose sleep about that either. (Another comparison: Fission reactors typically contain hundreds of tons of fuel, and the sheer amount of stuff is the problem when things go wrong).

[@JeffKing-qy9nw]

I think the “Trump loses the conspiracy crowd” is the one I’d go with. Trying to leash that monster was doomed to fail. And if we can push the time line a little, I could imagine a scenario where the ruling class starts to implement gun restrictions, after a particularly bad event.

[@cherylb6755]

It would likely take “multiple particularly bad events,” no?

[@thorsteinmortensen4399]

@@cherylb6755 no just several events of them being shot.

[@JeffKing-qy9nw]

@@cherylb6755 just a reason to change the messaging. we have to do this to protect “you” from “them”.

[@CPGurchGurch-ki8xw]

@@JeffKing-qy9nw good one!

[@Jedi_Vigilante]

I could see the gun restrictions if there is a rush to copy a certain Nintendo character, or a mass event at one of their get-togethers. I mean, we know that laws aren't written to benefit us, and if there is one group of people who can outbid the NRA when they feel threatened...

[@daniellev2901]

I’m with Belle on the stock plummeting! Thank you All! Stay strong and if there is some way you can help victims of SoCal fires, please do so. Thank you!

[@BC25citizen]

Thanks for that. Don’t forget about the displaced pets. Humane Society and other shelters are taking in as many as they can and treating burns and injuries. Money always helps. Apparently they’ve been flooded with offers for fostering.

[@RichardLemke-c9n]

I applaud Belle and Dana keeping us informed thanks the world needs brighter people like yourself

[@YikesThump]

The Tangerine Palpatine dies on the golf course and Vance becomes the 48th president.

[@SamClemens-id3cl]

I thought about the chance of the ultimate Big Mac attack. I actually think JD would be more dangerous than Trump, though. Trump is being hamstrung by his own stupidity.

[@ohana8535]

@@SamClemens-id3cl What makes him more dangerous? He certainly isn't smart.

[@crono3339]

@@SamClemens-id3clI disagree that JD would be more dangerous than Trump. DJT has some kind of witchcraft like hold on peoples minds. He fascinates them and he has charisma to sway them. Now a lot of us seen right through it from the beginning but those who’ve been in his orbit the last decade their minds are cooked haha. They may agree or follow JD but he doesn’t have the personality they worship like Trump.

[@postmodernrecycler]

Huh-WHERE is Vance?? Did anybody check between the couch cushions?

[@stephaniewilson3955]

That is almost a certainty.

[@Grim_Beard]

01:50 "...Trump's economic plans..." Trump** actually _having_ an economic plan (beyond 'more money for Trump') would be a Black Swan event.

[@christopherbrown6891]

An actual black swan lands on the White House lawn.

[@carolbulmer8253]

An omen🙏

[@peaceout6285]

😂😂😂😂

[@echowentz5717]

Here is mine: all of the people pursuing and experiencing spiritual awakening finally reach a tipping point in human consciousness that creates a tidal wave of sanity.

[@meganmaki8489]

I like that one.

[@cherylb6755]

Yup. I’ve been focused on that White Christmas / Black Swan event for several years now. Sometimes you just gotta believe.

[@attempted_realist]

I hope it doesn't happen, but America needs a Black Swan event to happen in DC on January 20th at 12:01pm.

[@Sableagle]

A Black Swan Lake event?

[@ajchapeliere]

Can you elaborate?

[@corryg6403]

Facebook has sparked concerns over potential user data collection and influence operations by the United States government, leading to restrictions and bans around the world

[@williambrasky3891]

Oh that’s definitely gonna get worse

[@christiaanterveen4633]

After the recent events, a (temporary) EU ban on Facebook and Twitter would be my guess.

[@donaldwert7137]

Good, cold morning Belle, the team, and Ranch Fam! Hope everyone is safe and warm this morning. You know, it occurred to me that wanting to take over Canada and Greenland means the US could hardly call itself an "English-speaking" country any longer, since Canada has such a large French-Canadian population and the folks in Greenland speak Greenlandic or Danish. In both cases people may (or may not) speak English. I can imagine the head implosions over this on the right.

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

You just know that drumph would insist everybody speak English. The trilingual signs would be expensive and hurt the little maga minds. :-)

[@donaldwert7137]

@@victoriajohnson-parratt6975 Good morning, Victoria! Yes, I can't imagine he or any of his followers would respect anyone's language.

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

Happy trails fellow travelers! Let's learn something new today together!

[@BeauoftheFifthColumn]

Hi

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

​@@BeauoftheFifthColumn Good morning Cassandra! I hope you have a beautiful day today!

[@shawnr771]

Good morning, Victoria.

[@shawnr771]

​@@BeauoftheFifthColumnHowdy Belle.

[@SaberToothBicycle]

Gtsy Victoria!

[@sotek2345]

Major breadbasket crop failures. Most likely this is still years away, but unusual drought and flood cycles could accelerate it.

[@haggielady]

It's not so far away. Nobody is watching weather because they are watching wars. Mother Nature is Really mad at what we have done to her planet.

[@rtj6874]

Ranch hand slipping into Roads! Don't forget to muck the stables and feed the cows in these snowy times!

[@TheSuzberry]

Cows and horses don’t take days off and the Ranch hands don’t either.

[@Sableagle]

Blackbird came and sat on the garden fence and looked in through the kitchen window this morning, so I fed her early.

[@donnahopper9799]

And break the ice if you don't have a warmer.

[@deboraheriksen881]

The Republicans and Vance use the 25th to take out Trump due to his rants about Canada and Greenland.

[@bettycarey2446]

That's very possible

[@lazeau]

5:08 honestly? this one is kinda my biggest fear. if the orange one doesn't kneecap the economy, especially after all the talk about market "corrections" since the pandemic, if it all goes smoothly then how deeply does that cement the loyalty to him? i mean that seems like the perfect setup for an actual red wave

[@byecatsstacey7467]

And increased, concerted efforts for his 3rd term he is already talking about

[@katrinawilliams7866]

Because I keep having this recurring nightmare (*yes, I have a therapist lol): trump gets sworn in, pardon's himself, resigns so he can go live out the rest of his miserable life at Mar-A-Lardo and leaves us with vance and the heritage foundation at the helm of project 2025. Possible? Yes. Elon and the tech brolagarchy basically TOLD trump shady-vance was their choice for VP and Elon backed it up with $. Why?

[@californiacloud1036]

Oh…

[@marksieber4626]

First event might be how he treats fire damage victims in California. How the 2025 version of FEMA looks.

[@jamesharrison2374]

They need to boot strap it, no money for CA, hear him posting that soon.

[@roughroadstudio]

Biden already declared it a Major Disaster Emergency to release funds to California.

[@Mamalovesrocks]

This is a very serious and very likely event. I am worried about this. I do not live in CA but celebrity or not, they are humans and citizens of the US. 😔

[@byecatsstacey7467]

Base that on how he treated them in 2018 - he had to be shown voter data and actual numbers of trump voters before he would send any fire response funding to California back then. I envision him cutting off all the relief and rehabilitation funding Biden and Congress already allocated for CA this time - especially given his distasteful rants on social media of late. He has already determined which of U.S. American citizens are expendable.

[@jamesharrison2374]

@ well the MAGA party does not seem interested in us living in devastated western NC either, and over half of the area has big Trump flags everywhere.

[@attempted_realist]

My prediction is that Democrats start to play politics the way the GOP has for decades, and it shifts politics on the USA. Also for the record, I'm not sure if this would be for the better or not, but it would change things.

[@xionkuriyama5697]

I feel like this election did to Dems what 2012 did to the right. Just completely broke the status quo. Unfortunately, the response so far seems to be "sink into defeatism", but hey, maybe Katie Porter will catch on or something.

[@mochynddu723]

Donald winning a golf round without cheating?

[@Allastrology]

Lol!

[@byecatsstacey7467]

That isn't even a remote possibility! lol

[@lexslate2476]

Wrote a novel in which Canada, Mexico, and the US collectively made a unified currency. Not to replace their existing ones, but to help synchronize their economies to function as a more cohesive trading bloc. Ended up as a good currency for tourists to carry worldwide. It wasn't even a real plot point, just a worldbuilding element. Also it amused me to say that such a thing would just end up being named 'money' as a result of a joke that spiraled out of control. I also included that at some point Texas had seceded and it wasn't going well.

[@johannageisel5390]

Texit, the even less successful version of Brexit.

[@johnreid2851]

I live in Western Australia. Black swan events are quite common here if you happen to be anywhere near a water body 😉

[@Ron_Lockwood]

Thank you,Crew and Belle.😎🇺🇸💙

[@Erin-Thor]

Texas is getting SNOW! Color me dancing! 💃🏾

[@roadswithbeau]

Have fun!

[@Erin-Thor]

@@roadswithbeau- LOL! Thanks, Hugs Belle and warm wishes! 💛😎

[@shawnr771]

Good morning. Still above freezing here with a light rain.

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

As someone with experience, I can tell you a waltz is safer than a jitterbug. When you eventually drop, make a snow angel! Have fun Mr. Astaire!

[@rhodawatkins4516]

I hope your grid holds up! We're supposed to get several inches here in Oklahoma, too. It's been awfully cold, and I've been letting my water run all week to prevent freeze ups and leaks. It's mostly worked.

[@thylacine569]

Trump drops off the twig and JD Vance takes over.

[@ADude-f3z]

I dunno if that qualifies as unpredictable…. For Trump sycophants maybe, but for the rest of us?

[@klrs8525]

Perfect; seemlying unexpected but definitely retroactively predictable with great impact. I might also add 'Trump forced to reveal Alzheimers or Dementia diagnosis' leading to the same effect as ceasing to exist and the same effect as early lame duck. Edit-I think the truly be a Black swan before January 20th. Then impacts thus becoming wild and unpredictable.

[@rusmct1404]

Scotch guard your couches.

[@CPGurchGurch-ki8xw]

@@thylacine569 idk but this seems too likely to be a black swan, unfortunately. Imho after a small study time. Your black swan is my worst nightmare. I guess we would need to look at how many presidents have died and VP took the Presidency. Easy enough to Google but... I'm not in the mood!

[@roughroadstudio]

​@@CPGurchGurch-ki8xw Supposedly that is the plan. They use Trump to get into the White House, then use the 25th Amendment on him to remove him, and boom Vance is president. That's who they wanted from the beginning. Vance is the Project 2025 choice. They just wanted to use Trump's base to get him there.

[@Lessinath]

Here's a black swan event of a non-political origin that would have interesting (and probably terrifying) sociopolitical implications: How well do you think the Trump admin would handle the impacts from a large, climate altering volcanic eruption? Like, say, on the scale of the eruption of Mt Tambora in 1815, where 1816 is often called "The year without a summer" because of a short but intense volcanic winter from this event. Snow fell in New York in June. It wouldn't matter if the eruption happened in the US or not, although the impact would be much greater if it did. For local impacts near the eruption, pick your Black Swan Volcano and delete everything within 100 miles of it, in terms of life and infrastructure. In that circle, it's literally not even the same landscape anymore. If something can't get out, it's gone. Then, crippling but not decisively fatal level impacts downwind for 2,000 miles from that circle in an expanding cone from the extreme ash and pumice fall. I question if a competent administration could handle a very rare (about 1 per 300 years on average, globally), but high impact natural event like this. I'm sure under the Trump admin, it would be something else entirely. Note: This isn't a prediction of such an event, purely a theoretical. There is no indication of any event of this scale taking place any time soon... but isn't that always the case with black swan events?

[@reynard61]

He'd handle it about as well as he handled COVID: He'd try to mitigate the damage to his personal reputation and fortune, all else be d@mned. 😒

[@BC25citizen]

Ummm…. Dana said something about thinning ice sheets reducing compression on magma chambers beneath them. So eruptions become more likely under the ice…so more ice melts…so less compression…. I don’t fancy this line of speculation. 😨 I think I’ll just imagine the king of ruzzia in a wile e coyote flying suit instead. Tied to an anvil. 🦇

[@gerritverburg4105]

Happy travels Belle and internet Community 🎉

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

Good morning Gerrit! It's good when we travel together!

[@donaldmrambojr5695]

😊 Happy travels, fellow "Roads scholars"!😉

[@roadswithbeau]

👋

[@Erin-Thor]

Good Morning Donald, Belle/Beau/Dana and horses! 👋🏽🤠💙💛

[@donaldmrambojr5695]

@ Lest we forget Mr President 🏇& Marylyn 🐎too...💕

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

Good morning good Donald! It's a pleasure to be traveling this Roads with you today!

[@Erin-Thor]

@@donaldmrambojr5695- I said horses didn’t I? 😂

[@geh449]

That stock-AI-crypto-neuralink conspiracy theory sounds like a winner. Someone should get that started.

[@koanikal]

I'm surprised it hasn't, considering Evangelical Christians' obsession with the End Times and the mark of the Beast, etc..

[@evac3928]

Don’t forget to include photos of T with Epstein, Hillary, whoever. It’s a deep well.

[@OutdoorLonghair]

👋 mornin' all hope you have a wonderful day

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

It's a real pleasure to share this Road with you Longhair!

[@tamdsms]

Stay calm, he's just a paper tiger, & will soon find himself under arrest for treason.

[@rhsb553]

I feel like we're already in Pre-Pandemic stage. Alot of people have been really sick, though they've tested negative for everything. Most are sick at least a month.

[@ajchapeliere]

Is there any reporting out on it? I haven't heard about anything like that where I am but maybe I'm missing something

[@FGM013]

We’ve had a lot of people sick and more people are wearing masks in public. The ones that I know have all tested positive for influenza A.

[@CricketsBay]

There's an HMPV outbreak in China and India. It's a particularly virulent strain, but it doesn't appear to be deadly. It's a respiratory (upper and lower) virus which can cause pneumonia, but mostly is like the common cold.

[@greatboniwanker]

If we get another pandemic he is officially the pandemic president.

[@ajchapeliere]

I really hope we don't. That just feels way too cyclical to be okay. Win election-> break economy-> pandemic hides broken economy

[@johannageisel5390]

He just turns out to be Pestilence of the apocalyptic riders.

[@CricketsBay]

Human metapneumovirus. HMPV. The press in India is freaking out about it. It spread from China to India recently. It's a particularly virulent strain, but it doesn't seem to be deadly. Yet.

[@alephnot000]

I have been telling everyone about the Quantum risk to cryptologic since 2011. Shors algorithm could break rsa and ecc. Just as having a linearized prime number enumeration function as a result of proving the riemann hypothesis would. No one talks about this shit but it's been keeping me up at night for over a decade. Thank you for bringing this to the debate, finally.

[@margaretnicol3423]

I predict a new free updated Windows that is totally secure and really works for everyone.

[@tabularasa0606]

Unpossible. (Spelling error on purpose)

[@shawnr771]

Its called Linux Mint.

[@Peisinoe.o.A]

Woa, let's not go overboard. We said "possible", remember?

[@fighttheevilrobots3417]

😂😂😂

[@jasongallagher5464]

I lost my mother to Covid. She spent the last month of her life in a hospital bed fighting for every breath until her heart finally gave out. It was real

[@peaceout6285]

I'm so sorry 😞 😢

[@jasongallagher5464]

@ Thank you. Yeah to anyone who thinks that was just a joke, I don’t even want to imagine the hell and fear that was the last month of my moms life in that hospital bed

[@lanapeterzon]

That was fun Belle.

[@jeanine1410]

Thank you Belle and Team. A lot of interesting ideas here. I love this channel.

[@daverose2279]

melinaia leaves trump and trump and caitlyn jenner get married gop melts down

[@curtismmichaels]

I don't think this is really a Black Swan, because it seems obvious to me, but often what seems obvious to me never happens, so my prediction genes are definitely faulty. I expect Vance and Johnson to article 25 Trump fairly early in the term. If I'm right, then maybe Johnson will use his famously versatile spine to back out on vance at the last minute, neutering Vance's political career. I don't expect this, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[@SnowyOwlPrepper]

Dragon king is a double metaphor for an event that is both extremely large in size or effect (a "king") and born of unique origins (a "dragon") relative to its peers (other events from the same system). DK events are generated by or correspond to mechanisms such as positive feedback, tipping points, bifurcations, and phase transitions, that tend to occur in nonlinear and complex systems, and serve to amplify Dragon king events to extreme levels. By understanding and monitoring these dynamics, some predictability of such events may be obtained. Wikipedia.

[@QTEPYE]

Black Swan event 2025: donald wakes-up at 5 a.m. Gets a couple of newspapers to scan for about 45 minutes. Then spends the next hour exercising. Has breakfast with his blushing bride, melania. Then he goes to work. He treats his staff and folks he meet with a warm smile, dignity, and honor. Then I wakeup, and realize I was dreaming.

[@johannageisel5390]

Next plot point: He gets abducted by the CIA because he is clearly controlled by aliens.

[@HattieLankford-24]

Would it be a black swan if Trump met his own Luigi?

[@meganmaki8489]

I really, really hope that doesn't happen. It would make him a martyr, and that would be even worse. That and I don't wish anyone un-alive.

[@byecatsstacey7467]

It remains open season.

[@suewarren4486]

Go, Luigi. The game, of course.

[@CricketsBay]

No. Because the recent "attempts on Trump's life" are prepping MAGA so they are receptive to his demise, at which time Shady Vance will become POTUS. The rally on Jan. 19 is a setup for another such attempt.

[@johnsteiner3417]

You might need to do a video on the bird flu strain people are worrying about, in particular the mortality rate.

[@CricketsBay]

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed made a video on H5N1 recently. I've been expecting a new one since I heard about the terminal case in Louisiana. As someone with asthma and other health conditions, I'm freaking out about how the U.S. under the new Dump administration will not appropriately handle an outbreak with a 50% mortality rate.

[@wandaway1961]

In 2026 election every eligable to vote American will vote. 😂

[@markrenfrow9873]

Good Bright and chilly morning Ms. Bell and internet folks.

[@victoriajohnson-parratt6975]

I hope you have a beautiful day today Mark!

[@sarahmartin7181]

In my history studies, saying that we need territory for economic security/stability is also a thing the Yazi's said.

[@adnysaokerfay6035]

We're with you!

[@jeremyleyland1047]

My black swan prediction. Fusion will be upgraded from 20 years away to 10 years away, it will still always be 10 years away, but it will get the upgrade

[@b.pragmatic]

😮‍💨 The only Black Swan I want this year is the cheeky one at the San Antonio Zoo, or the song by BTS.💟 No matter how saddened I was not to get VP Walz, I'm not rooting for people to suffer in the next 4 years.🦄

[@newts-gaming695]

These are all great, thank you! Honestly, you made my day.

[@NancyfromIllinois]

Elon Musk gets a serious health scare and starts giving his money to charity. Or Bezos.

[@brettAnichols]

The Earth, which was an egg this whole time, hatches. All biological life serves as substance for whatever life emerges.

[@ryanroyce]

My Black Swan event: Trump's health takes a sudden nosedive and either dies in office or is sufficiently incapacitated. Vance becomes president and the conspiracy crowd goes nuts.

[@roughroadstudio]

This has already been planned way back. Vance is going to be president fairly soon.

[@ElimEx1]

Trump is replaced by Vance who invokes the 14th amendment

[@milot2311]

Thank You Belle and Team--- trump🤡 being in office is already a Black Swan event, what's worse?

[@tjk3430]

Putin pulls some major escalation a day before Tr takes office.

[@BubblesByYoli]

Thank you

[@Allastrology]

Thanks again Belle and crew!!!

[@RexJordan-s8x]

Thank you Belle again from Sterling Heights Michigan USA

[@mikeminden1090]

My concept of a plan for the Trump Monument on the Mall will be approved by the National Park Service, thereby increasing the availability of public toilet facilities in D.C.

[@JaquentaJackie]

I think they're looking for a Beaustradamus/Bellestradamus take. 😅 BTW... I had to check my hoodie for the spelling. 😅

[@victormunroe2418]

Canada, Greenland, and maybe Panama are gifted nukes from the UK and/or France

[@CricketsBay]

Canada technically had nukes, since the UK has nukes ... being a British Commonwealth and all ...

[@WestOfEarth]

My black swan event is that Russia ends its war in Ukraine for some as yet to be determined reason (Putin unlived, domestic uprising, etc), but Trump will take credit for it.

[@CricketsBay]

Except that's 100% what will happens.

[@davidbryden7904]

The pandemic scenario actually seems fairly plausible and probable to me. Whether it's Bird flu or something new, I think the general public's lack of confidence in both vaccines and our governments ability to deal with the crisis could easily lead to such a black swan event.

[@CricketsBay]

HMPV is spreading in India and China. The press in India is freaking out about it. Basically, it's a respiratory virus that causes pneumonia. It does not have a high mortality rate.

[@chrisforsyth8323]

Madame, a King has no term limits.

[@swiles]

I love your topic choice and thoughts on it, Belle!

[@johnsteiner3417]

One of the hurdles of quantum computing is the ability to recall prior states of each bit. Since quantum computers have simultaneous states there's no recall ability. A series computer would be needed to augment the quantum computing to recall prior states. However, the more storage and processing power the quantum computer has the higher the ratio of series processing is needed to track prior states.

[@deanfranklin6870]

It's possible that Russia cutting cables will finally cause a NATO response

[@CricketsBay]

That's not a Black Swan Event. Finland is begging NATO to respond as we speak, and quietly preparing Finland's own response.

[@jimmyen]

Black Swans as shorthand for big unpredictable events was popularized by Nicholas Nassim Talbeb's 2007 book about the concept, which gained a lot of recognition after the 2008 financial crisis in part because he had previously worked in finance. In its transition to mainstream usage, the idea naturally lost a lot of the nuance he was attempting to communicate. A true black swan is not simply an unlikely event that disrupts the status quo, it's an event that isn't considered possible because the empirical record used to make predictions is incomplete. Like if you needed to calculate how much wealth existed in the world and surveyed a million random people to create a model to generate a likely range. This sample would be unlikely to include a billionaire, which would be a single outlier so significant it renders the rest of your work meaningless. Black swans are in this sense not unpredictable per se, but stem from extrapolating too much from our incomplete understanding of the possibile outcomes. It is still fun and interesting and important to consider the future, fringe scenarios, and the circumstances that might bring them about. I think the black swan is a concept that is meant to keep us humble about our ability to make meaningful predictions.

[@edithmaverickfolger4014]

There is an outbreak of Polio in Marin County California that spreads across the US. Hey, I get half credit if it is German Measles instead.

[@RR-ms1nv]

"lamed duck" or He can also not be able to finish because of health.

[@jmasuo]

We saw it all in the ICU.

[@seraphonica]

"due to his age, he just kind of takes it easy" and also the four years of evidence we have for Donald the elected politician

[@ajchapeliere]

Are we just crowd-sourcing spicy bingo card entries? 😂

[@auntieangie6546]

Oooohhh good idea 💡

[@dianne5086]

How about WW III? I'm pairing fRump's current imperialistic plans with his older comment about nukes, "If we have them, why can't we use them?".

[@GillamtheGreatest]

a positive one. huge breakthrough in fusion.

[@nilo70]

putin dies,the old orange guy dies followed by husk .

[@comfortablynumb9342]

Here's one. What if trump actually decides to help Ukraine? That could easily ruin a lot of support.

[@euniceaugust2197]

Thanks Belle, love predictions.

[@1verstapp]

i'm going with the pandemic, china is already lying about the 'normal winter flu' outbreak they're having at the moment.

[@BoredBob]

If suddenly one day in the next four years all the TV stations in the US started simulcasting Swan Lake I wouldn't be the least be surprised.