The Slide Continues

We look at the latest finance data from the ABS, the NAB Business Survey, and the latest from the poor old RBA on home prices. They still do not get it!
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Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!

[@investornator]

Quiet a few properties are coming online with people who purchased off the plan in the last 2 years ....Time to settle...I work for one of the largest builders in Australia and they are very nervous regarding a build of thousands of units that will start settling in the next few months.. I will keep you posted on how sales are proceeding :)

[@MrSunnyuber]

You're just the person we need to hear from Red Quoll....somebody at a grass roots level who tells the truth minus the spin (b/s). Please stay in touch with this site.

[@nixnix99]

How many is quite a few? More than 1000-5000?

[@investornator]

@@nixnix99 Its a precinct...in the CBD ..1000 odd Apartments !

[@josephwilkes1668]

Thanks for being involved and sharing a bit more information and data. People can’t make considered decisions if they’re kept in the dark. Best regards Joe Wilkes @ DFA

[@tomtesoro7994]

@@josephwilkes1668 "peopler" ARE in the dark, because the MSM, government and corporations are staying silent because of their stake in the losses.. real estate sales, adverts, etc. this oligarchy (OZ) "ain't gonna spill the beans"

[@rickyjohnson261]

Modern day slaves aren't in chains, they are in debt. This ain't going to end well.

[@choopa1670]

Ricky Johnson well said

[@54footscray]

In medieval times the people would burn down the homes of certain people that collected debts

[@nickyounger6544]

Great coment got me thinking we can all make a differance in our every day lives

[@HeywoodJablowme7]

Been hearing that now for literally 15 months..... life still goes on.

[@16323070]

Paper slaves

[@cyberwarrior8616]

Just in from Newcastle....ONYX Apartments project in Newcastle west has been "abandoned" , Deposits have been returned (not sure many were interested in the first place) - The project is now going to be a white elephant standing in a semi-completed state for who knows how long. It's stated that, although many had placed a deposit, it is due to the downturn that the decision has been made, This is the latest of several such abandoned sites in Newcastle central that I have posted before. Here is the project site, but nothing has been posted on line yet, but I will endeavor to post as soon as something comes up. If any of you from Newcastle come across anything, please post. www.theherald.com.au/story/5511918/onyx-development-on-former-empire-site-set-to-hit-market/

[@choopa1670]

cyber warrior thanks for that insight I’m interested in the Newcastle market. Cheers

[@eyeLikeCarrots]

Something similar happened to a mate in Canberra.

[@cyberwarrior8616]

Lindasy, take a drive to Warners Bay and look at the the building ALDI is located in. All the street level commercial units have never been occupied since the site was completed nearly 2 years ago, plus the units above are mostly empty. Then look at the massive construction directly across the road with even more units plus commercials at street level ...what chance do you give these of occupancy any time soon. I also noticed just a few streets in from the same place several old houses were purchased then cleared for units, but have not progressed in almost a year that I have been noticing. Charlestown has similar story, then of course a drive along the harbour will make one's head really spin at the amount of unit construction. I believe as Maaa-aaa-aaate above has stated, that when the dust settles, these properties/projects will be bought for a song by internationals.

[@josephwilkes1668]

@cyber warrior. Good to get on the ground reports. Many Thanks for your involvement. Joe @DFA

[@Charliechorizo]

Thanks for the info, it would be worth a road trip to view the monument commemorating the great property boom.

[@Vanessa-qj5hj]

Hi Martin. Your comments on the RBA and credit availability reminds me of the argument I had with a former RBNZ trader. Basically she told me that population growth over the last 100 years is the reason why demand for land and property will always be greater than supply. I asked her about the role of credit and if she thought it made a difference to the price? And her reply is that credit makes no difference because of simple demand and supply. Land is scarce and cannot be increased in supply. I told her at the time she's wrong. And it's because the availability of credit brings forward the demand side of the equation. Cheap credit allows demand side to increase making supply availability scarce. I'm a student of Austrian economics and we don't believe in the simple demand and supply graph as there are many more factors involved. But just goes to show the sheer arrogance of these central banks that they think they know everything because they have a Ph.d.

[@tomtesoro7994]

'renovation lending' . is down to the lowest since 2002!

[@MG-xy9rn]

The block this year should see contestants start with negative equity

[@tainuibabe1812]

I'm still renovating! But I save the money and then do the reno. I refuse to go back to my bank to borrow the funds!

[@benderrodriquez]

Those reno shows' ratings are going to nosedive!

[@coasteyscoasteys]

Tom I'm renovating But with money I save!

[@tainuibabe1812]

Vodafone NZ has asked it's staff to put their hand up for voluntary redundancies because they want to make their business more attractive to shareholders. The only staff they want to keep are their "retail stores sales staff" and perhaps their account managers. They want to send the jobs offshore where they can pay cheaper salaries in countries that have cheap living costs, in other words, NZ has high living costs and therefore higher salaries compared to other countries like the Philippines. Another sign of things to come.

[@josephwilkes1668]

Hi - and thanks for commenting. It’s not an ideal situation for Vodafone employees and I really feel for them, some of those going through this are friends of mine, I heard about it last week before the papers issued the stories. The challenge that NZ currently has is that the wage spiral has left many sectors uncompetitive internationally - this is again largely the result of the credit binge of the last decade. When you look at other economies wages (a major business cost) they are just lower. Even very developed economies have lower minimum wages. Take he UK ‘From April 2018 the rate for National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage is: 25 and over: £7.83. 21-24: £7.38. 18-20: £5.90. At current exchange rates the UK minimum wage is NZ$15.11 for over 25’s and 18-20 wage NZ$11.40. The press constantly refer to a low wage economy?? When Actually the Credit Bubble has simply created a high cost economy relative to productive capacity. The constant private debt has masked a big balance of payments deficit and the underlying productive issues, until now.

[@tainuibabe1812]

Joseph Wilkes, I completely agree on all levels with you. This has been the biggest credit expansion in our history! It is also one of the reasons why we have had enormous inflation in asset bubbles, in particular, housing inflation!! There is a definite correlation between cheap money, low interest rates, low wages AND over-inflated assets like property!!

[@technoomelette6836]

@@josephwilkes1668 this is exactly what has happened in Australia. And many businesses in far flung regional centres have just increased their prices in everything. It seems like we're all paying for these expensive houses through inflation on everything and low interest rates for savers. Wine is still cheap though.

[@grahamchestnut6510]

@@josephwilkes1668 that's where me and a certain banker parted ways, was the cost of living. i am more worried about price's, i can't control going up . i have given my self a big hair cut ,to keep up with the cost's i can't live with out.

[@chrisyorke3013]

If they outsource all their help desks to offshore supports, they, or their customers will regret it.

[@CharlesOwenVALUEOFEVERYTHING]

Everything is explained by two words - Minsky Moment

[@CharlesOwenVALUEOFEVERYTHING]

Or - Debt Trapped

[@billboyd2009]

Completely forked?

[@CharlesOwenVALUEOFEVERYTHING]

@@billboyd2009 That as well

[@ConqueringCaffeine]

Charles Owen GO MINSKY!!🎉🎉. CRASH THAT SHIT!

[@wingkeechan5329]

Seems the RBA paid an undergrad (maybe the kid of some executive) to create that report of A Model of the Australian Housing Market. The RBA should actually make a more useful report entitled 'Why House Prices Can Fall Even Though Interest Rates Are Low'!

[@benderrodriquez]

Report should be titled "How we f%$&#ed up"

[@LosizakII]

I applied for a loan last week, have five times the money in my account to cover it, no other debt, excellent credit score, plus a gov't job that pays twice the loan amount, and they said no. That's OK, I just won't spend money...which is exactly the opposite thing that needs to be happening at this point in the cycle. Banksters have no clue, which is why we're in trouble. They should have been saying no to people who genuinely couldn't afford to borrow money years ago...then they maybe wouldn't be so scared to lend to people now.

[@khashy87]

This is exactly what bankers want this is happening by design they are not stupid. The plan is to funnel the money from us to the 0.01% and systematically kill the middle class.

[@johnl4469]

Thanks Martin, continue to love what you're doing.

[@mickyd824]

Vote 1 Martin North for RBA governor....

[@mohitraghavnz]

But they will corrupt him too. Evil they are. Martin should get 100M as 100M = 100k. Lol

[@Charliechorizo]

Shut down the RBA, don't let the cancer live.

[@mickyd824]

@@Charliechorizo I think its days are numbered in its current form, manipulation with lies never works...

[@technoomelette6836]

Nah. His integrity would hinder his job description.

[@grahamchestnut6510]

@@mickyd824 i think that is part of the plan to do away with cash

[@tomtesoro7994]

unemployment! ha! ha! so, it will rise from the current 10%?

[@benderrodriquez]

"Admitted" is the operative word.

[@zwarst]

RBA - Credit is key to our housing market meddling 🛎 -sorry modelling..

[@Charliechorizo]

No, you were right the first time. The role of the RBA is to take orders from the Bank of International Settlements a increase the wealth gap between the ruling banking families, and everyone else.

[@cameronmoore3886]

Start learning to live on the smell of an oily rag ;)

[@chrisryan508]

Or set yourself up as an oil & rag salesperson, it's a neoliberal world, _leave no stone unturned!_

[@eyeLikeCarrots]

Or just live within your means.

[@chrisryan508]

@@eyeLikeCarrots where can I loan some of these means, I could do with a few, do they take Mastercard?

[@jeffeeeeeee]

Speaking of the smell of an oily rag! I recently completed a 50 day stint on my 20 acre bug out. Took supplies which cost me 250 bucks (aldi) that fed me n the mut for 7 weeks 1 day which works out at 5 dollars a day all inclusive. Could have lasted another couple of days but ran out of uht milk and i can only handle black coffee for so long! Gonna do it all over again in a week,tweak it to last longer this time around.

[@cameronmoore3886]

@@jeffeeeeeee love it! ... I talk the talk but I'm yet to walk the walk, it's awesome to see people like yourself are making it happen, hats off to you Jeffrey :)

[@tomtesoro7994]

NOT FOR THE MSM it is not! All is normal for them..

[@billboyd2009]

Why? They did what they were paid to do. He who pays the piper calls the tune. They will decide a scapegoat and all will blame them. They might well point the finger at commentators like DFA for spread fud and breaking the housing market!

[@grahamchestnut6510]

@@billboyd2009 a very scary piont

[@markrichardson8382]

After a divorce left me broke and homeless, I bought back into property about 6 months before the GFC hit in 2008. Ever since I have struggled holding the property with tomorrow bringing my bank appointment where I'm handing the keys to my home back. I'm destroyed emotionally, physically and financially from 10yrs on a single wage supporting two children, an ex-wife and a home loan that charges interest well above the reserve interest rates!!!!l It's time the people started a revolution against this tyranny and stood as one for a change.....

[@leighscott-kemmis8258]

Why is it obvious to everybody but the so called economists at the RBA that its mostly about credit availability and its pace. Remarkable is maybe not strong enough Martin.

[@ChasingMidnight001]

Shocking (RBA omitting credit). I'm in Wgtn, NZ where the major insurance agency is refusing policies for new buildings. I think the loss of available credit is about to cause a precipitous decline in house price. What do others think?

[@swaldron5451]

Martin, your comments on credit availability to borrowers should include the fact that many workers are becoming casual workers and lenders are not keen on lending them housing loans. A significant downturn with higher unemployment will see wages depressed and more companies only offering casual work. Attempts by governments to increase taxes, provide subsidies or establish support schemes will always have costs passed on to the consumer or get priced into assets. Is this Australia's future?

[@annakryzilinski4748]

Signs of the times: 1) RBA paints economy into corner, raising or lowering interest rates both spell trouble, they make up policy as they go along. 2) Suicides, self-medication, aggresive behaviour, mental illness escalating as living conditions become intolerable; USA is worst. 3) Just as immigration is used as an excuse to solve our labour needs, more jobs going offshore; for example a trainer for a big labour hire firm based in Melbourne told me on the plane as I was coming back from Fiji that their call centre business, in Suva, Fiji, is utilised by more Australian companies than ever, and he proudly said they only pay their Fijian workers AUD $3:00 an hour. Unless and until there is more pain for more people nothing will change the status quo.

[@neilcharnock4167]

Thank you Martin I have been saying all this to a small audience for years now. BTW well done slowing down the presentation. I'm pretty quick but had some difficulty keeping pace with your presentations until very recently. You do fantastic work I must send you some money as thanks.

[@joshjeffrey2761]

Thanks Martin. We’ve recently sold two properties based on your analysis AND what’s happening from a global macro economic perspective. It’ll be very interesting to see what happens domestically and globally over the next 12-18 months I think. Thank you for all your efforts!!!!

[@Platinumcalculator]

Yes, future FHB here. "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." - still a few years away to hit a trough

[@bengray4293]

Morning Martin :)

[@SF-ow5ru]

If you are a smoker who is trying to quit but can't, try vaping, it really does work and much much better than cigarettes. I am only mentioning this based on a personsl experience and increased smoking is related to increased stress which is related to the financial stress we live in. Hope this helps.

[@MrSunnyuber]

I read a repot a week ago that said vaping is every bit as bad as the real thing.

[@dazbenpeter8311]

@@MrSunnyuber hi gaz..............for some reason ( tax ) ,they really dont want people to stop smoking........vaping for 2 yrs no smokes, no probs breathing good again..........heaps of money for my cryptos.

[@dazbenpeter8311]

SF..........spot on mate, 2yrs now..... ''WINNING''..........vaping is the best way to kill the icky sticks.............shits me how everyone believes the bullshit the pharmaceutical co. put out, use nicotine replacement therapy from them of course & be hooked on that shit for life...........acquaintance has been on the mouth spray 5yrs............f&^$# joke

[@SF-ow5ru]

@@MrSunnyuber Hi Gary, total bs. Corporations smear tactics. Myself and 2 more relos have quit smoking and thier lung function is much better

[@SF-ow5ru]

@@dazbenpeter8311 awesome Daz! Really glad it worked. Initially takes sometime to get used to but some preseverence and all good

[@rodneygillespie9212]

I hope after the crash we don't go red.

[@baikal4784]

The global debt levels are off the charts… Its only a matter of time and the collapse of the entire system will accelerate fast… Its been pure gradualism for the last 10 years but we have now reached the tipping point of no return… You can either put your head back in the sand and hope things get better or you can prepare the collapse of the global economy.

[@chrisryan508]

Emergency response like QE will be normalised as a regulatory measure & the band will play on...

[@baikal4784]

@@chrisryan508 Just about all nations around the world are insolvent in one form or another….The 2008 GFC was just the start of this mess… Im predicting a huge false flag event soon to finish off the economy… The ones who have caused this mess will also have all of the answers… Out of chaos comes control… All part of the NWO…

[@mohitraghavnz]

Crypto or gold? What is safe haven? Hehe

[@chrisryan508]

@@baikal4784 been following Das & Keen & Kaiser since 2011, the band played on is a reference to the sinking of the Titanic.

[@chrisryan508]

@@mohitraghavnz far away property with some chickens, solar, & your own water supply ;)

[@michaeljp9605]

Great insight again Martin, if only more people watched your videos the country would be a lot better off.

[@BassGoesBoom1]

Great as always

[@teatowel11]

Btw Martin, of course it is all about supply and demand. It’s just that the biggest influence on the demand side is credit availability. With less credit there is less demand yet the supply is still increasing because there is a lag time on buildings that were planned when credit availability was high and so was demand.

[@punchybandu]

I love your work Martin but I have to admit all of this is depressing me a bit now. I feel like I would prefer to have my head in the sand. This channel is like sour milk... You come back for a second smell to see how bad it really is... Keep up the great work mate from a fan in Perth.

[@tomtesoro7994]

' credit?' SEE STEVE KEEN.. ! existing system does NOT count 'credit' in their system.

[@mohitraghavnz]

Steve Keen has been predicting all this.

[@tomtesoro7994]

@@mohitraghavnz 2009: "40% decline within 15 years" almost spot on! AND they ridiculed him and his work..

[@davidlazarus67]

tom tesoro Their models ignore all credit because their core model is that banks are simply intermediaries and so not relevant.

[@davidlazarus67]

edmack4me That might be a side effect but the neoclassical models that mainstream economists use exclude banks and money. Prof Steve Keen has commented on this multiple times. They treat all lending as between individuals and have ignored banks completely because they are only intermediaries in their models, even though the Bank of England has identified commercial banks as the source of new money.

[@AislingMonahan]

tom tesoro well he was a BIT early!. Unless you think prices will fall back 40% from 2009 levels?

[@bondisteve3617]

Lovin' it Mr. Martin. Many thanks.

[@txtx-ic4nh]

Australia is the second main gold producing country in the World. Australia's reserves of gold as of December 2012 were estimated at 7400t (13.7% of the global total) The gold reserves might help Australia as iron ore mining did in the recent past from a "slide" in the future.

[@wingkeechan5329]

Venezuela have more oil reserves under the ground than the Saudis. Didn't help them a bit... LOL

[@txtx-ic4nh]

@@wingkeechan5329 Should mention that to gold bugs.!!!! Good point.

[@MG-xy9rn]

The take away is that if the AUD tanks as we go into recession propper, ASX listed gold miners should do well.

[@wingkeechan5329]

@@MG-xy9rn, doubt that. Labour cost is only a small component compared to imported resources. What do Australia manufacture besides processed milk products?

[@brianmoran1196]

@@MG-xy9rn Do you know any good companies?,,I've been with GOR, they have done well but maybe its time to change

[@merlingeikie]

Thanks Martin, well done and more on the ball than others, imo.

[@profdoc8339]

Completely correct!

[@Natpoo101]

Why is the RBA not willing to reference credit as an major factor impacting house prices???

[@tomtesoro7994]

martin where are we on your published scenarios?

[@muradtalukdar4401]

4:37 , what kind of rise was that? ;)

[@vadeout.]

4:38, A shite rise,... 🤣🤣🤣

[@TheYodaman22]

“We’re also going to talk about this financial report from the ABS which is currently on fire 🔥 “

[@climatechangepreppersfaceb2148]

Can we short the banks now?

[@cheeser01]

Hi Martin, i really like your channel. I'm looking into buying property in Melbourne and lucky I came across you. Just making a suggestion (I know you have Paypal and Patreon option), have you ever thought of putting a bitcoin/ethereum address in your description for cryptocurrency donations? I would feel more comfortable donating via this method and I'm sure there's others. Keep up to good work!

[@Thyalwaysseek]

I don't understand how Tasmania are doing so well when they have some of the worst unemployment rates in their capital Hobart. How can Tasmanians afford to buy a house if they're not employed? And if unemployment is high it means the business sector is not doing so well, I think the only reason their business confidence is so high compared to other states is because Tasmanians are getting high on the hopeium pushed by the MSM.

[@wingkeechan5329]

Perhaps purchases by retirees from other states. If so, there is bright future for businesses providing health care and medical services.

[@scorer3418]

Rumour has it lots of international workers purchased property as a go between to Antarctica.

[@UsurpersAndAssassins]

You are right. Anybody with a brain cell in their head understands that this has all been a credit boom, and the Assets and Liabilities don't cancel each other out - because you owe the debt - but you don't necessarily own the house. Not until it is totally paid off - which won't happen, because all these owners and investors are busy borrowing extra money on the home to live lavish lifestyles. They never actually have any equity in the home. It's just debt on top of debt on top of debt. All liabilities.

[@Tobacc0]

No mention of Chinese money?

[@jimmylt109]

I watch most KZbin videos at x 1.25 speed, occasionally 1.5. I comfortably watched this at 1.75. I didnt think it was possible for a human to talk so slowly!!

[@dreamzz01-p2s]

Lol

[@richardshaules3981]

Hi Martin- love the work you're doing! Unrelated question, a recent CNBC article suggested the Aussie and NZ dollar is most vulnerable to a continued China economic slowdown. In your view, what kind of impact would a further China slowdown have on the Aussie housing market (if any)? Also, Im very curious what a weaker Aussie dollar (assuming this would happen if China continues slowing down) would have on precious metal spot prices? I understand this isn't real estate related, but I'm not sure who else to ask... Thanks Martin! www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/aussie-dollar-new-zealand-dollar-most-vulnerable-to-china-slowdown.html

[@AussieAngeltv]

0:50 it’s a little depressing seeing the PayPal donation page always at $0.00 😢 hehe

[@chrisbishop3687]

If understand correctly you're saying now is a great time to invest in property? Get in quick right?

[@wingkeechan5329]

Wrong. You don't buy early in the downswing. You wait for a bottoming of prices, which would be a flattening of the trend line for at least 2 quarters. goo.gl/images/uu8QFu

[@chrisbishop3687]

@@wingkeechan5329Thanks mate good to know. Looks like it will take a while to flatline. Not much good news out there from a price growth perspective

[@peterwakeman9930]

less loan when house is cheaper?

[@sharynjones6065]

Haha higher interest rates

[@wingkeechan5329]

You might only need a loan for renovation and pay cash for the house when this downturn bottoms out.

[@jackau08]

Cause the academic nuts think that credit eventually cancel each other out in the mighty zero sum ? Yet they forgot that there is interest and profit that it must be made from the credit which means something gonna be suck out of non credits ... existing economic value being draw to the banks and beneficiaries from some where..

[@nickyounger6544]

Modern day slaves that are not in debt are still slaves to the system, Its the system that needs to change to a decentralised one.. Blockchain & Digiatl Currency has the ability to level the playing field and free Man Kind from the world we live in now! We just have to open our eyes and minds and run with it!

[@world-uk2vj]

ALP is intending to step in a fill the void affordable housing projects They have stated this publicly

[@grahamchestnut6510]

well it sounds like there will a lot of off the plan housing for them to do a deal on . weather the people will be able to get insurance after. some of your building failure's. remain's to be seen

[@Otters71]

I think there are still tranches of money to come in. Friends who want to invest in real estate, and who are debt free, are getting advised to wait until June/July. There is still money out there.

[@grahamchestnut6510]

there is alway's money out there. it called smart money

[@flyingbears5635]

hi do you own any property?

[@teatowel11]

Still waiting for you to get a bitcoin address for me to donate to Martin.

[@daveanderson1862]

teatowel11 I would definitely pay you in BTC Martin. Get an address mate!🌈

[@teatowel11]

I used PayPal last time and wasn’t impressed by the fee.

[@chrisryan508]

It's a big universe, all kinds of nasty things waiting to do you in, you should always know where your towel is, & your BC address.

[@chrisryan508]

@Mrs Mooney ripple is a very interesting & effective cross ledger system but I think the relationship to banking corporations & the centralised nature of its operation puts some people off.

[@SB-vh7jn]

Lending down?? No way. You realise the banks aren't lending. Is your audience really this simple

[@hounddog7256]

if your engine runs out of oil, then whats the result...? 💥

[@SB-vh7jn]

@@hounddog7256 come on, he says the same thing everyday and then asks for PayPal donations

[@gordonpaulsen7359]

Is this the first and only video of his that you have watched? It would seem so from your comment. There is plenty of substantiated technical information given almost daily, that his 15k subscribers really appreciate. He is fast becoming a household name due to his accurate reading of the market. Of course he is going to discuss what is happening in the market and why.

[@nixnix99]

Mouse trails!!!

[@ivanbrbot8857]

first

[@anthonycresswell4690]

First

[@MrJigarercivil]

1st

[@ianpennack]

Sorry i think you came third. Anyway, i'm the 50th thumb up.

[@ytyt3922]

Happy housing crash everyone! 😢💔🏠💔😢