The Stock Market Is About To Blow Up

US inflation just fell to 3.1% after posting two months of 0.0% and 0.1% month on month movements.
The good news is that the inflation problem in the US is over.
All key indicators are pointing down and Shelter is the last piece of the puzzle. In the next few months, inflation is likely to drop below 3% towards the Fed's goal of 2%.
So what is going to happen to the US stock market when interest rates start falling next year and when will the rates start falling?
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[@Susanhartman.]

Given reduced inflation signals and the belief that the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $500K portfolio to enhance overall performance through diversification, with the less haves bearing the brunt of the burden. I'm more concerned that the rising inflation may lead my entire $990k retirement funds to lose value. Where else could we put our funds ?

[@mikegarvey17]

Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire

[@mariaguerrero08]

True, some folks employ hedging strategies or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during market downturns and such pointers are provided by engaging the services of market experts just like i did in 2019, amid corona-outbreak, and as of today, i can boost of a 45% enhancement on my $1m portfolio after acquiring assets recommended by my advisor.

[@ThomasChai05]

@@mariaguerrero08 Please who’s this Financial coach that guides you?

[@mariaguerrero08]

Credits to *Camille Alicia Garcia* , she maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.

[@diane.moore-]

I located her, sent her an email, and scheduled a call; hopefully, she will reply because I want to start the new year off financially strong.

[@rodpanhard]

They are not incredibly bad at analysing data they are incredibly good at skewing and misrepresenting data.

[@SashaYanshin]

They seem to skew and misrepresent in opposite directions which suggests it is very much not intentional.

[@RetireandGo]

Make sure you are well positioned in the market for 2 percent inflation… it will roar upwards

[@ozemalhao]

@@RetireandGo tech mostly?

[@RobertGillontheinterweb]

So is Sasha tbf

[@rogerstarkey5390]

You just know that if the "government" persuades the fed to reduce rates "certain politicians" (or 1) will scream "they're gaming the economy before the election", despite having done exactly the same thing

[@LaraineWilson-em3zm]

Started going big on stocks a year ago with assistance from a licensed FA. so far it’s been my best market experience, just hit the 700k milestone. I recommend working with an expert

[@albforever]

Yes it's best to work with an experienced professional because of how inconsistent the market is. my investments with a licensed broker, Ann Marie Celentano has been very impressive.I've been able to scale from 100k to over half a million.

[@rodriguezolson4290]

did some google background check, impressive lady

[@Vynie-pu7md]

I once met her at a seminar in New York. she is. a very well experienced lady, polite and passionate.

[@Lettogle109]

With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio.

[@gracegomez109]

The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

[@Judithmoy109]

I enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not outperform, been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over $300k .

[@priyankamahatma6672]

Would you mind recommending a specialist with a variety of investment options? This is extremely rare, and I eagerly await your response

[@Judithmoy109]

VALERIE JEAN ZWOSTA That’s my licesed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later.

[@priyankamahatma6672]

Thanks, could really use the recommendation, I've been losing a shit-ton lately, I looked up Gretchen Marie Hostetter and I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals,.

[@liammullan2197]

Re those historic rallies you mentioned... none of them started with anything like today's PE ratios

[@change2023now]

The stock market is going to blowup for the millionth time this week.

[@PowderMilk69]

STILL WAITING !

[@elephanthuntinvesting1613]

@@PowderMilk69You sound like a Trading212 user. Everyone has already seen it. What the hell are you invested in if you're still waiting?!

[@eco-nutjob]

Blowup meaning get destroyed.

[@eco-nutjob]

Blowup meaning get destroyed.

[@jonathanphillips3257]

Always check the data yourselves, don't trust what others say. Great update 👍

[@user-rc7rf6st7k]

As always a pleasure hearing you 😊

[@SandgateandCaboRoig]

Well done mate, keep vloging

[@dps615]

People were saying the same thing in 2007/2008

[@victoryiamofficial]

What are you talking about

[@williampmcd8548]

Thank you.

[@mhgerbus]

Love your delivery always a pleasure to listen in 🎉

[@DavidAllen-fo4jl]

Thank you Sasha. Godspeed. David.

[@DanKnowlson]

Having fairly recently discovered your channel I'm loving your down to earth, say it how it is approach. Gives me much more confidence in what you say that most people out there, including big names like Patrick BD, etc

[@Moosegravy420]

Trim is looking neat buddy. Thanks for the great content as always

[@davdep]

You keep on about rates being high but people have short memories, remember when rates were typically between 5- 7%. rates should stay around that mark just to keep a lid on a house bubble and keeping inflation under control.

[@ciaranirvine]

Yes, people got too used to the highly-unusual situation in recent decades of ZIRP. Long-term neutral rates should be about 4% and I think we're back to the old normal again for the next decade or two

[@DK-ty5ue]

That’s the historical average indeed. People got too used to no rates that now they think that’s the norm we are returning to lol

[@shellyperera2010]

Exactly. Rates aren't high. They're normal and we just have to get used to it and adjust accordingly.

[@iaminterestedineverything]

​@@ciaranirvinepeople also forget that back then governments and central banks made sensible long term decisions. As soon as the economy looks too bad in respect of upcoming elections, they'll soon enough reduce rates and print money again.

[@sirmacca09]

Great analysis as ever!

[@FUBAR733]

Sasha, your analysis and delivery is awesome. It is always very insightful and also makes me laugh. Thanks.

[@brianmckillop6860]

Nice one Sasha! Great snappy fact lead video! Love it!

[@websurfer2344]

Fantastic!

[@garygranato9164]

maybe i wasnt listening right but,i dont see anywhere on planet earth where food inflation is dropping !!

[@AnthonyHolan]

oh, but don't you see the data they show you hahaha

[@garygranato9164]

@@AnthonyHolan lol :) what i am seeing is videos of people spending money at the supermarket, and then complaining about how little said money now buys. i dont understand this guys video?, he's usually spot on!

[@dduplis]

Your videos are so entertaining but oh so informative.

[@owenkrysler8235]

Just back from USA, spending time in Austin and Dallas. These cities are absolutely booming.

[@greatjaygatsby]

Oh, how I wish you were right about the "no recession". Just placing my comment here for future reference. 😉

[@Isaachar72]

It seems the job market is softening, will this impact stock prices ?

[@jonm4989]

Makes sense to me Sasha, what are your thoughts on the U.K. stock market?

[@JustinGreenwoodDelgado]

Same how does this impact the uk or what’s the Uk outlook?

[@jamesvdv0]

UK outlook = very bad!

[@gabrielstevens2679]

Honestly, the only opinion i trust, the data points help so much too, love the vids

[@florin2tube]

Totally agree. Load the boat when nice stocks are down.

[@nigel904]

Cheers Sasha, you’re the best! 🍻

[@MrAnarchocapitalist]

There is a reason for the Fed to cut rates if inflation is low. Everyone says the Fed has a dual mandate, but it actually has a triple mandate: "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates". If the first two boxes are checked, it should work on the third.

[@snappie-riversofengland7589]

The best source for financial logical reasoning on youtube. I watch a lot of KZbinrs but you by far provide the best analysis

[@mrmoneyhacks5480]

If they reduce interest rates, it's going to release enormous pent-up demand and inflation will blow up again. Then KZbinrs will have a real reason to criticize them.

[@hachimaru295]

exactly

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Do you think people will *really* decide to buy... Just for instance, the cars (/trucks) they've been screaming are too expensive for the last year or so? . Will they wait for, or even insist that those prices reduce? Will the car companies who "made hay while the sun shone" listen? Will the dealers who are in a hole with too much ageing inventory that they "bought" (on loans) at the peak, sell cheap and swallow their losses? Will the banks reduce existing loan rates to get customers who overextended (on the advice of banks?) Out of their predicament? . There's plenty of scope for pain before a boom.

[@agaragar21]

............BUT IF THEY'VE BEEN WAITING FOR LOWER PRICES......WHy WOULD THEY BUY IF PRICES INCREASED BECAUSE OF NEW DEMAND ?....THAT happens 2 years down the road !.......in march they reduce the rate 1 %

[@mrmoneyhacks5480]

@@agaragar21 If interest rates go down, there will be an expectation of price growth, so people will buy now to avoid paying more later, or because they want profit from an investment. For example, If people think houses are going to go up over the next few years, they will buy now as an investment, which will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Home sales are very low right now (pent up demand). Investors are ready to pounce!

[@danimorrow6317]

Thank you for covering today's US inflation data!!

[@SashaYanshin]

👍

[@muf]

So what's going to be next year?

[@eclkt]

Thank uou

[@amulpatel]

in a sea of doom.. I look forward to your content. NOW more than ever. Thank You!

[@ivantsanov3650]

Outstanding 👍

[@SashaYanshin]

👍

[@agaragar21]

So where to invest in falling rates ????

[@sharkychris]

Too many words. Cut to the chase man - should I buy or sell? or hold? or hodl? WHICH IS IT!!

[@ba177ba18]

SpX call ALL IN!!!

[@jdl9623]

You did it again my friend. Spot on!

[@SECULARDEVELOPMENT]

Wow,great analysis and insights to what is possibly coming in the next couple of quarters.There is a lot of money that will be coming out of bonds and the sidelines in general.😊

[@victorr.4607]

Thanks!

[@victorr.4607]

I really like this "nobody see it coming" impression :)

[@victorr.4607]

@SashaYanshin you don't invest in crypto at all? like eth or bitcoin?

[@SashaYanshin]

Wow! Thank you! Might treat myself to a beer!!!

[@davidurban3357]

Remember, what he doesn't tell you is that when inflation is flat or positive, prices remain high. And clearly all the data shows that the cost of living remains inflated and difficult. The Fed is going to maintain higher interest rates until employment drops, as unprofitable companies continue to reduce labor costs to compensate for refinancing corporate debt at inflated rates.

[@dakotacavin5210]

💯💯💯💯

[@timog7358]

100% on point

[@lewis809]

I don’t know, I don’t feel like we can ever predict these things

[@jamisonm5854]

I agree they'll likely reduce rates next year as in 2019, but neither would be due to political pressure. It would be due to fact that if they kept rates high while inflation is low/getting lower, the real interest rate is getting more restrictive which is generally unnecessary if the economy is weakening or likely to weaken. You only need restrictive real rates if there is inflation pressure to the upside with a strong or overheating economy.

[@mkdons22]

I am ready

[@SSRUNNER0]

No word of a lie everytime Sasha has released a ‘the stock market is about to explode’ video. My vanguard Vusa (as recommended by Sasha) has gone up the next day. The great mystic has spoken.

[@drosman2872]

Did you Join his community to get this advise on what to buy

[@fix-hb1561]

Hope so

[@georgeorwell7291]

so why do you think the banks are telling us that next year will suck? Because the post covid GDP hike will slow? Deflation bad for earnings? Would love to hear some insight from you there.

[@TheArtofValue]

If GDP keeps being that high while interest rates are, not sure why they’d be keen to lower rates; wouldn’t they risk having inflation take off again?

[@affegorilla1299]

Glad you cover again outside the UK. To much UK content overall imo in the past. ✌🏻

[@nickfoster7043]

right, but what about the immense corporate, mortgage and government debt that's about to hit the fan q2 2024? refinancing the debt should spike it again right?

[@aac74]

The problem is that debt laden economies are binary, if the inflation problem is fixed that means you will soon have the much bigger problem of debt deflation and that will collapse the stock market.

[@danielhems1457]

Yeah !

[@CNArea51]

Buy Right - Sit Tight

[@stevekowalski7936]

Do you still own and add to Fiverr position?

[@asteroidz]

This dude is great.

[@intheskymusic]

You are the best again

[@SashaYanshin]

🙏

[@joeellul-turner1280]

What do you think caused the inflation spikes in the 70s? And why do you not see that as a possibility if they lower interest rates without any need?

[@user-py2dd1sk4w]

Your analysis is very straight-forward and hard to dispute; Perhaps the Fed has played it well - they held the economy back with rate hikes and rhetoric and avoided a wage-price spiral. They can't say they'll cut in March but know they probably will. Not saying I like what is happening or that they've always got it right - but maybe this time they have.

[@user-og4dj8ie4o]

It seems just as irresponsible to tell only the very best of the story as it is to tell only the very worst... inverted yield curve, gas price plummeting (indicative of demand drop for shipping), bond market crash (which by the way - the Fed effective funds rate HEAVILY correlates to the bond market, which actively precedes it basically always), American consumers living paycheck to paycheck and having more credit card defaults than ever before, the repo market for automobiles booming, European and Chinese recessions, etc. You have alot of sway Sasha, and so boldly touting that "next year will be fun" whilst ignoring the red lights flashing is pretty ridiculous. You don't have to agree with the bears, just do more research before blatantly telling people futures that no one can predict.

[@joshuakelsey1196]

Can we please have a response to this Sasha? We understand people can have differing views but how are the aforementioned issues not going to impact the US and the global economy at all? Are they non-factors? Overblown?

[@sjt627]

​@@joshuakelsey1196it would be good to hear your response Sasha

[@yenifa5925]

Indeed, at those previous times when the interest rates curve went down there was no energy shortage and angry Putin involved. Lowering the interest rate would only increase inflation on necessary consumers items. Highly doubt that people would have enough leftover funds to splurge on stocks.

[@petecabrina]

Yeah it almost seems he is deliberately doing counter videos or something, like everyone else are fools, rather than doing any kind of deep dive on a lot of these issues. There is an Aussie guy called New Money who seems to do more balanced stuff and seems pretty grounded.

[@SashaYanshin]

😂😂😂 I hear the same stuff every year. The red flags keep flashing but I keep talking about the power of long term investing over trying to make random short term moves and I’ll get the same comments back every time. I don’t just decide on a narrative and fit the story. In fact I have been discussing the exact opposite in the UK which also just happens to be coming through now.

[@suddendeath6959]

What am ready is for another FED tool to be announced any day now.

[@themsmloveswar3985]

Concerning the stock market, central bankers are printing money in an effort to prop up the Nasdaq, S&P, Wiltshire, FTSE, DAX, CAC, etc...

[@deseosuho]

The metric the Fed most refers to, "Core CPI", is 40% shelter. The US housing market has not yet cracked. Home sales VOLUME is way down, but sales prices have only just started to drop. I don't think there's any plausible path to the Fed's 2% inflation target that doesn't involve a home price and rent price drop of 20% or more from today's levels. The smart money says Powell will pivot too late, when inflation finally does go below 2.5%, UNLESS major banks start failing in the next 3-4 months, in which case he will probably start cutting right on time.

[@beresd]

What is your portfolio made up of if its gone up 53%? Can you outline it?

[@dougmanck4149]

How much is your Fiverr stock up this year?

[@quokkapirquish6825]

Sasha is the only KZbinr consistently getting it right. It’s going to be boomtown when central banks start cutting interest rates, I have no doubt. Only one complaint about this video - WHERE IS THE PUPPY?

[@barrybarry6592]

Data as published and information not spoken about in public are quite different things.

[@almabe7608]

😄 I was just about waiting for your new video bratan! I knew it

[@SashaYanshin]

👍

[@Got2Learn]

"about to" has been the term used for the last 3-4 years and it'll be used for the next 5 to 10 years to come.

[@SK-oc5qb]

Are you thinking interest rate is likely to drop in the UK also in 2024?

[@SashaYanshin]

The UK has a very different (and worse) set of problems - I cover the UK in separate videos. 👍

[@thenakedsingularity]

The entire society we live in is based on hype. The market's movement is a hype based movement. It's not a mature, sustainable move - it could just as easily go down tomorrow or next week.

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

very calm by sasha's standard, almost powellesque.the problem is the lack of soft landings historically. none. this would be a first.

[@DK-ty5ue]

There will be non because mass psychology always overreacts

[@stevenbacon3878]

Great video😂

[@JeroenHerbrink-lm4mq]

Sasha, great data analysis and I fully agree, but what do you think of the possibility of the Fed being pressured by the US gov to keep rates higher for a few more FOMC meetings, to allow the US gov to entice enough bondbuyers to fund their massive deficit and keep welfare/programs going, also for getting re-elected?

[@future62]

This makes no sense as that same US govt will have to pay the interest on that debt. We are already spending a huge % of our budget just on interest. It will be interested to see what happens to bonds if/when rates go back down. I don't think they will ever go back to 0

[@JeroenHerbrink-lm4mq]

@@future62 you are right and I agree that higher rates further increase the deficit and the amount US govt is spending to service debt, but I am also wondering what temporary effects might occur due to re-election pressures, US govt dont really seem to care about the ballooning debt/deficit and quite willing to kick quite some cans down quite some roads, just to keep all the spending/benefits/bailouts going.

[@pilotguy5075]

I fucking love this channel!

[@DesignVisStudios]

need exit liquidity

[@Nick-from-norfolk]

How does your portfolio compare from November 2021?

[@mattx4253]

Used car values are crashing and new car sales are so bad that Porsche is giving discounts. If you think that means good times are here I’m not sure what else proves the problem is big. Used car values is the working American is now broke. New Porsches aren’t selling so the rich are also fucked by high rates too.

[@shpluk]

Blow up good or bad? What are we buying index, tesla, fiver?? Apple?

[@julianrodriguez661]

wow this guy is so smart. especially with record high of today stock market.

[@minimad8793]

At least you back the narrative with data dude. Going to be a good one next year i reckon.

[@maxvangent3793]

High chance a flash crash happens in Q1 tho. Not out of the field yet.

[@devipriyanka6656]

Is it best time to invest in us market

[@paulsargeant3764]

Sasha, isn't the US gdp growth down to war funding?

[@kw8757]

Which war?

[@jjm00811]

They say prices of eggs and milk are down. Meanwhile everyone is still getting squeezed. The inflation data is manipulated. CC debt is at an all time high. Wages have not kept up even close. There will be a deflationary recession in 24'.

[@georgediaz9925]

Everyone is feeling this

[@freespeechmatters583]

@@georgediaz9925 No it's fine. Inflation has gone apparently. Prices must all be back to 2019.

[@son_guhun]

@@freespeechmatters583 That's not how inflation works. If prices were back to 2019 levels, it would be deflationary. Inflation going away simply means that prices aren't RISING as much as they had been, not that they've gone back to where they were.

[@ratsliveonnoevilstar1]

everyone is feeling it

[@rodpanhard]

There is a good reason for the Fed to keep interest rates high - it busts commercial banks as it's these that will be major opposition to the CBDCs.

[@danunpronounceable8559]

Only because they won't be able to get away with the ridiculous fees they put on their products.

[@AIQREATIONS-pk7jr]

trust me Bro Sasha has been on it all year

[@timetraveller3063]

I am beginning to think that there will be a stock market dump in January 2024, similar to Jan 2022.

[@DK-ty5ue]

I think so too

[@david69869]

I do

[@timetraveller3063]

@@david69869 There's too much froth

[@davidhamtaro]

⁠tsla already dump their stocks. They’re giving it for FREE

[@stephenmcsweeney7562]

The leadership at the FED knows exactly what its at. Historically speaking, decreasing rates always preceeds a recession by months.

[@avalagum7957]

Yeah, everybody knows that the stock market is about to blow up. The question is when. 1 week? 2 weeks? 3 weeks? a month? 2 months? 3 months? ... Nobody knows.

[@DK-ty5ue]

The market will blow up after it blows down first

[@Wilfgood]

Do you ever share your portfolio?

[@SashaYanshin]

I do - will do an update at the end of the year 👍

[@Wilfgood]

@@SashaYanshin Cheers 👍 heard Tesla and Fiverr

[@dan_taninecz_geopol]

Oh hey look you were right.

[@TRUMPSAMORON]

Wow. You were right about the market a few weeks back ! Im putting all my money in tomorrow blast off !

[@stephenmcsweeney7562]

You'd be better off sticking to Owen Benjamin.

[@drosman2872]

Which ISA u recommend we put it on

[@JerryCecco]

If all the short sellers got force out of market, who will be on the other side of the BUY?

[@fifis101]

I'd be very interested in your opinion on Game of Trades video "5 More Months Until It Begins..." A recession that is.

[@gasman6163]

gas prices are based on future contracts and will take time to fall, suppliers have contracted longer term deals to hedge their costs so a drop in the spot price does not have an immediate impact

[@kevingeoghegan294]

So why does an increase in spot price produce an immediate rise?

[@gasman6163]

@@kevingeoghegan294 human nature and the fact that contracts won't comprise solely futures, but a mix

[@djsstutter]

Sasha, great videos. Im from UK and typically the videos I have watched from you have been about UK economics. Recently I also watched your US economic videos. They seem to tell a opposite story - US doing well and UK doing bad. What are the main differences, how did they become so diverse and whats the outlook for each? A narrative has been that the UK is doing bad, but so is everyone else.. however it looks like UK has its own unique issues.

[@shellyperera2010]

UK has the Tory party. That's why we're doing bad.

[@tropics8407]

Yeh Sacha, pls chime in. I think it is the high taxes and all the laws and regulations for everything in the UK. Geez. The fricking government over there actually thinks they can fix something 🙄🤦‍♂️

[@claucmgpcstuf5103]

Dude intha UK ther selling studios hausing. At tha age of tha wel not ok citis ..with 200k ma. . Tha is wer you see ther si a problem. On of them tha adre one is tha total Rati of bisnis fail in tha last 20.40 yars vs before . Etc in tha UK etc and probali aders . In Ani case yea it is not ok . Wel se