The Trigger For $200 Oil This Year And Destruction Of The Economy | Doomberg

Doomberg, Head Writer of the Doomberg Substack, discusses the factors that could push crude oil up to well above $100 a barrel, as well as also bear cases for oil that could cause the price to retrace $50.
*This video was recorded on April 6, 2024
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*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
1:13 - Geopolitical risks and oil
8:00 - OPEC supply
10:20 - Oil price if war breaks out
13:10 - Strategic petroleum reserve
16:10 - Higher oil price and recession
17:35 - Phase out of ICE cars
24:54 - Bearish case for oil
27:10 - Peak oil
32:45 - Doomberg
#economy #oil #investing

[@TheDavidLinReport]

Do you think oil will spike above $100 a barrel this year? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! FOLLOW DOOMBERG: Website: doomberg.com/ Substack: doomberg.substack.com/

[@lamloc5068]

Oil will be above $100 and will stay above for pretty long this time if Trump in the office next year in my own opinion.

[@mattclark6482]

Excellent Video David (as always).

[@SofaKingShit]

Ukraine will grind away for a few more months before they collapse from exhaustion. I think Putin is simply too stable and predictable to uoset markets, l mean if he didn't freak out at the grotesque Crocus shenanigans then it seems that tryly nothing fazes the fellow. Whereas there is perhaps an 80% chance that the middle East will suffer an escalation, likely Israel provoking Iran some more by blowing up a refinery or two. Far less predictability there with how much Likud and actual public opinion will with continue their heavy handed retribution and how far they are willing to provoke Iran and Lebanon so even if the poo doesn't hit the fan there the lack of predictability will influence prices way up past 100, maybe 120 for months with occasional peaks at 150 plus and then its recession time.

[@scottbonata5145]

OIL SHOCK?

[@paulasaavedra3696]

Yes, Oil to $100 or above

[@elgerardoedwardio2498]

"Oil prices could crash!" "who told you?" "A giant green chicken..."

[@arturonavarro66]

A Russian green chicken

[@creaturelost4354]

A little bird told me.

[@CoyoteOfSC]

This guy works for @Kurtzgesagt

[@barryfleming8488]

Keep pushing David. I love your willingness to listen and learn. ❤

[@VancouverStacker]

........."Giant Green Chicken Lives Matter" !

[@edwri9759]

Good to see David’s hair care product supply chain issues have been resolved.

[@yulianinoriega8598]

It’s crazy how much he’s hair changes from one episode to the other

[@MrInfoPhilly]

That's funny 😂😂😂

[@info88w11]

@@MrInfoPhilly added viagra gel

[@CollectorChronicles]

This comment made my day.

[@socialseahawksfan9325]

Maybe he fired the flock of seagulls hair stylist.

[@eyce9]

It finally happened! The tarot card lady said that a green chicken would give me the keys to my financial freedom. LOL

[@marcusallee8991]

Caution: never play poker with tarot cards. When I was little my friend and I found a deck of tarot cards, he got a full house and three people died.

[@patentexperts1675]

LMAO

[@thebarryman]

33:00 "we're trying to professionalize our organization" says the green chicken

[@abeybaby29]

Oil is the energy that drives the economy. With out energy nothing gets done.

[@dman9416]

Thanks Zoolander , water is wet.

[@PeterLeeInvest]

Feeds into everything

[@SuperPhunThyme9]

@@dman9416 liberals don't know this

[@kenlydon1395]

Oil is not “energy” it is FUEL the energy is produced when this fuel is burnt .

[@Tomorrison28]

​@@SuperPhunThyme9 That's a fact. I've had too many conversations where the average person doesn't consider the role of energy

[@marcgirard7551]

David Lin, great show as always. Can I recommend that you have Eric Nuttall on to talk oil and energy and perhaps even better if you have him debate Doomberg on the political risk premium in the oil price currently?

[@tdrbrt]

I was told by a car dealer EV's don't really work in subzero climates. Both the charge is affected and the blasting a heater consumes a lot of battery life.

[@allancastillo3419]

Makes sense they're prominent in California

[@user-jd5oq9rn8p]

Cant use a ev to go on long trips, it would be a total.failure , fi ding a charging station in the middle of nowhere!! And paying 60% more makes no sense!!

[@jimuren2388]

The battery drains a bit each day as the car maintains the battery at an optimum temperature. Be VERY careful when going on vacation ... you might come home to find your car has become a brick.

[@shawn576]

The heater is a surprisingly small load on the car. Heater for the inside of the car is maybe 1000W when it's on full blast, but the car is using 50x that amount in just regular city driving. Cold temps are what destroy battery life. There was a snap where temps dropped to -40C in Edmonton and lots of our gas cars couldn't start, and lead batteries in our cars are a lot more robust in cold temps than lithium batteries are. At least a gas car can be jump started; a battery car is straight up dead until it warms up.

[@jtrealfunny]

Doomberg and Lynn Alden squaring or differentiating their world views would be very interesting to me. I love Doombergs real world industry level pragmatism and I love Alden's macro/historical analysis of money and it's alternatives.

[@Lyzaaarnew]

I do like doomberg but $40 a barrel without the war premium is wrong. With the increase in costs to extract it from the ground no companies make money, it’s more like $60-$70 minimum

[@palookakj6622]

I agree. There was no discussion of inflation on the energy market

[@PeterLeeInvest]

@@palookakj6622 I feel the same. Especially with capex of oil companies going down & much more...

[@SuperPhunThyme9]

If we werent such cowards and we properly used our political leverage on OPEC, we wouldn't pay shlt for oil.....unfortunately the entire boomer generation is weak

[@aaronsullivan1628]

The big green chicken with the electric voice is Ai… artificial insanity. Natural gas conversion is expensive and maintenance is complicated. Tartarini and Impco conversions need to be maintained. Parts are expensive. When you add it all up, you understand why a Union Gas truck was filling up with gasoline at the pump the other day, as the conversions were removed due to high cost of maintenance. If the big green chicken had any ballz, he’d show his face.

[@socialseahawksfan9325]

I bet it's Cathy wood 😂😂

[@johnoliver4199]

That’s what I thought but there are solutions. The stuff is “ dirt” cheap. Like the bird said- don’t underestimate our ability to solve those technical apparatus issues. Unlike pure EV tech which has some unsolvable physical defects.

[@socialseahawksfan9325]

@@johnoliver4199 the bird is a quack when it comes to energy.

[@penponds]

Trump will take the edge off oil price rises in short - medium term, but long term, energy demand even allowing for a 18 month recession will keep moving upwards and Doomy reveals woeful lack of appreciation of oil industry dynamics.

[@lamloc5068]

I am amazed that David can understand a big bird talking LOL

[@pbrown0829]

You do realize he is speaking English. It’s super easy to hear and understand him

[@LarsLarsen77]

Oil going up is the max pain scenario.

[@jeanpaulfelix4095]

every chicken comes home to roost.

[@jmanakajosh9354]

U.S. is a major oil producer this is good for many companies in the U.S.

[@vincentyeo88]

For the consumers, yes! But not for the producers. For the grabberment, more corporate taxes to spend.

[@PeterLeeInvest]

So true - feeds into everything. 1970-80ies is the prime example

[@andreyyakunin3114]

Very smart comments for a huge green chicken

[@BIGGOODBOY]

Who do you get your Econ info from? A green cartoon chicken..

[@barryfleming8488]

Love your chicken ❤

[@Immigrationsituation]

Kinda scary that if it's a person's face you instantly trust them more

[@cjswa6473]

Let me explain a bit about natural gas. At 1.60mcf.Nobody is drilling for nat gas. Nobody. We are getting excessive nat gas now because we are putting 4 straw's(drilling) the same oil reserve where there used to be 1. This produces a flush production, but keep in mind the oil reserve field remains the same. We are not finding more oil..in fact, most oil is now termed "tight" oil. We are just wasting/ spending more money to get the oil out faster. In fact..one might argue that more drill holes gets you more access to the oil... actually the reverse often happens. Many formations are very sensitive and that why even at these crazy low prices, you still dont shut in the well wait for better prices. Often it doesn't come back at all when shut in😮

[@marcovaldovinos4754]

Doomberg has gotten oil price direction 11 out of his last 9 predictions. Green chicken credibility is suspect. I don’t understand why green chicken is still around.

[@Clemsnman]

The EPA is the biggest reason we don't have natural gas powered vehicles as the majority now.

[@allen_p]

Major reason no new petrochemical refinery has been built in 30 years

[@SomeUserNameBlahBlah]

What's the efficiency vs. gasoline engines?

[@brandonnetzley1906]

​@SomeUserNameBlahBlah in Brazil Uber drivers have NatGas conversion kits. It's insanely cheaper.

[@tbone5654]

@@allen_p Yeah, but all the existing refinery's have been expanded 3-5X in size. You need context, or be blind.

[@RD-kz4wr]

@@brandonnetzley1906 This existed in the late 90's in Canada

[@Resmith18SR]

Another Eggcellent interview David. 😂

[@animalsarebeautifulpeople3094]

Possible war isn't the only reason why oil price must go up.

[@socialseahawksfan9325]

Yup...

[@prettyblueplanet]

If only politicians could be this honest and smart.

[@adamg4490]

One of your best interviews to date! Thanks!

[@brainkill7034]

Compressed natural gas powered vehicles have been around for quite some time now. The most prevalent in the US would probably be public transportation. Many city busses have run off of it for the better part of the past two decades.

[@alanmrsic893]

Great stuff, thanks again!

[@Northern-Don]

Our green chicken friend doesn’t seem to have a clue concerning EV’s

[@MarkJensen-se8nn]

*Re: $50.00 - &200.00* Retracement back to 50.00 (Brent/WTI) is simply -laudable- ridiculous. Regards -

[@ZapperJohn]

Great interview!

[@mechannel7046]

2:00 geo risk, natural gas glut 8:45 opec 16:25 glut of natural gas 19:20 gas vehicles to stay 26:00 trump win bearish for oil 28:30 peak oil myth 30:20 polical decision will not survive energy crises

[@myutube8x]

Excellent job David; you always have so many questions that are in alignment with what your listeners want to know. And Doomberg, as always. skillfully brought us so darn much clarity.

[@johnramhos7615]

I never thought I could learn so much from a cartoon bird. 😂

[@bellakrinkle9381]

You are the exception. Most do not take any green chickens seriously.

[@briannewman6216]

CNG engines have been around for decades. They do produce NOx. They only makes sense if the price of Nat gas is much lower than oil.

[@boromirsonofdenethor2586]

Oil @ $50 per barrel LOL

[@ripster9713]

Don’t forget $700 Gold!🤣

[@edackley8595]

Trump would be bearish for oil prices, for sure. Other inflationary pressures would stay intact as Trump is a deficit runner. Gold might back off, however, as the de-weaponization of the US dollar would commence.

[@socialseahawksfan9325]

Yea, the bird is coocoo I'm his thesis'.

[@user-wv3wc7zc7m]

Awesome info as always :)

[@CraftEccentricity]

Up 50 cents a gallon since Monday in FL 9a

[@truhunk1]

Filling cars with natural gas needs massively strong compressors to fill those tanks. I dont think homes can accommodate these compressors. The tanks are also quite large, and they get only half the range of EVs. I speak from experience. Natural gas cars is not new. My car 30 years ago was powered by natural gas. It also has about 15% less power.

[@info88w11]

World will rapidly transition to methanol fuel for motor transport . Methanol fuel will be produced in a carbon neutral process. Technology to produce methanol at scale has been recently developed using CO2 & copper.

[@edwardhemberger9542]

Good stuff David.I had asked you a question awhile back about Harry Dent & you responded !! PS have been involved with commodities since 2020 & theirs lots of money to be made.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Good content . Thanks David

[@ydobp]

Appreciate the news

[@tracyreutlinger5387]

Isn’t the price of oil going up part of the business cycle as well? At this point in the market oil and gold generally perform very well.

[@martinroncetti4134]

The cure for high prices is high prices.

[@janetpelletier1238]

This is such a good interview! Thank you.

[@dabronx340]

I love the climate colonialism evidenced in that interviewers question and insistence that Ghana needs European permission to use its natural resources for itself

[@usaverageguy]

I don,'t get this guy. $200 dollars a barrel oil dose not mean we have reached peak cheap oil? $140 a barrel brought the world economy to it's knees! And he has obviously never driven a natural gas engine vehical. They are a maintaince nightmare.

[@bennylava8717]

canada was the leader in CNG research, development, and production but their gov't dithers. Canada was also ahead of US, Australia, indonesia in LNG but again, gov't dithers.

[@12345maxx]

"Why did you buy that stock?" "Well this green chicken on you tube said..."

[@sonnygsmith3207]

Very interesting and informative info👍

[@alexconnors1027]

Oil goes to $200 would kill G & S miner profits...

[@stephenheins7182]

Roll on, Doomie, you are articulating a sane vision about the future at a very clear level. Thanks for your great work and thinking.

[@rustymorning431]

Such a great interview!

[@sergios9338]

Well I’ll be damned….why did the chicken cross the road? Because he’s my financial advisor. Lol best show hands down!

[@stanburman9978]

Excellent discussion. Thank you David and Doomy. It would be nice if Toyota could get the memo on the CNG engines.

[@Dog_gone_it]

Fudders are comparing BTC to beanie babies when electric cars are the true beanie babies. 😅

[@Rawdiswar]

Now that's a comparison.

[@prolific1518]

This level of smooth brain is dangerous to society

[@bahpapajarmjackson]

Best guest you have had.

[@Imaginethis304]

Who wore the hairstyle better. David or Doomberg?

[@davebrewer7170]

That isn’t a serious question. Answer is obvious

[@quietStorm247]

Thank you so much, David, for bringing to the forefront the thoughts of the prominent energy expert Doomberg.

[@timmySmith-jl8jx]

I trust this green chicken more than any FED chair or mainstream economist

[@jimmyjamesl6605]

I just subscribed to your channel because of this interview. Fantastic!

[@user-nq2no8id4s]

David, great job as always. I’m amazed how you keep the poker face during the interview. I couldn’t hide my bias.

[@NV-uv3yz]

The solar ad was priceless. And the Ghana one too

[@ALLworldCONSTRUCTIONLLC]

historical data suggests sectors like energy and financials tend to perform well leading up to and following inflation peaks

[@user-cn5ri5he4c]

How could they NOT SEE things were going very, very badly in Ukraine before Dec? This is very, very strange!

[@karlkessler6017]

15:40 - Doomberg says "we've added 2.5 Saudi Arabias since the onset of the shale revolution". I don't believe that's accurate, at least with respect to oil. Saudi production is slightly below 9 mm bpd. 2.5x that is 22.5 mm bpd. We're producing a little more than 13 right now, and perhaps 8 of that is due to shale, so he's overstating it by almost 3x. Plus, shale wells deplete faster and the oil is more expensive to produce.

[@info88w11]

World will rapidly transition to methanol fuel for motor transport . Methanol fuel will be produced in a carbon neutral process. Technology to produce methanol at scale has been recently developed using CO2 & copper.

[@ronaldcarrel5388]

And your sources are better than his, when he is in the business of doing nothing but research to find out the actual facts opposed to what the government puts out, you’ve got to be kidding me. You must have a big set of cojones buddy!

[@karlkessler6017]

@@ronaldcarrel5388 So you're saying the US government is understating oil production by a factor of 2? Something it is responsible by law for regulating and reporting? And you believe that because a cartoon bird said so? My position doesn't takes cojones, believe me.

[@ronaldcarrel5388]

@@karlkessler6017 Ridiculous

[@onlypranav]

When he says 2.5x saudi, he used an expanded definition of oil which included NGLs.. They have tonnes of uses in the petro chemical value chain displacing traditional oil hence the need to expand the definition as refinery tech accommodates more hydrocarbons

[@user-iz2eg2ix4l]

This was one of doomberg’s better interviews. I enjoyed it! I always enjoy doomberg and David

[@stevendefehr4393]

Great talk David!! That’s no Chicken!!! THATS A ROOSTER ‼️ Have him back again before the end of the year please 😊 Cheers 🥂from BC’s Fraser Valley

[@toppersunglasses9288]

Nice job

[@marcobiagioni]

Doomberg ❤❤❤❤

[@sudo2998]

Doomberg the green chicken makes it easier for me to concentrate, honestly.

[@edenrr390]

Thanks for posting David. Sounds like Doomberg was a follower of the late Randy Peterson. Cheers SV Good Karma as Grins

[@lanab4103]

Green chicken power! 💯

[@MateoHunt]

Been loving the interviews! Good job!..

[@aaa21usa]

Good analysis!

[@FamilyofFour30]

He’s been spouting recently about how oil prices were going to crash. So what’s changed?

[@trevorlally7860]

With shale oil becoming more gassy,opec is in the driver's seat and they said they need 90 to $95 oil for all. Their spending projects with the cost of inflation for at least at 85 to 95 oil. The chicken is wrong

[@ryuaan]

Smart guy who has lots of interesting ideas. Seems 100% certain about what will happen in the future, leaving no room for alternatives other than the ones he advocates for. Why put any stock in fortune tellers unwilling to show their faces?

[@judgedredd8876]

At 3:30 "the beginning of the realization that the war is not going so well" The guy has been under a rock for a year?

[@benhaze1010]

The green fellow is very wrong about CNG. It has one of the major hurdles of deploying BEVs: weight. The increased weight reduces payload for many applications. Also if anything it will be LNG, not CNG that may gain some market share.

[@regulartxdude7813]

LOVE Doomberg!

[@jamesfernandez6801]

Great show David and the chicken.

[@bennylava8717]

DJT also want to crush the EV wave.

[@RageOfBlades]

I came for the bird but stayed for the content. This was a great discussion.

[@johncarter1469]

Who knew Putin owned a green chicken ?

[@Jonzouz123]

What stocks? CPQ LNG liberty energy

[@nonokodog622]

There isn't enough copper for an electric fleet not to mention the infrastructure. NG just makes sense. Maybe when technology has caught up in 100 years, we'll see via electric options.

[@UltimateStaredown]

"another fracking moment" 😆

[@JonnyKipping]

Can you please interview Eric Cartman next?

[@datboi449]

from what I understand, the oil exclusive refined products are no longer exclusive and the chemical engineering has been done to open them up to NG. the next step is industrial buildout to support supply chains.

[@zacharyprinsloo2540]

Love the content but I think a new mic for you would be great.

[@gamano7905]

I am an American living in Thailand, they have been using CNG for cars and freight trucks for many years and it works well

[@Dodger1999]

But there usage in Thailand is in decline. Look at all the empty CNG refill stations.

[@user-fl9hj9pg5f]

He said its a sucker's bet to fade human ingenuity, and this is what led to the discovery of nuclear energy, but human inginuity is also what led to the development of the nuclear bomb...

[@goldilocksminer8393]

Great audio.

[@helenkessler6012]

I live in the oilpatch.my friends work in the patch. The guys in texas can work 7 days a week if they want the ot. Haven't missed a week in three years ot. Too busy to come do work for us.

[@helenkessler6012]

The new XTO contract lost lots of guys. Set it up like RR No Bueno heffe

[@nonokodog622]

Only problem with CNG is the loss of power, about 20%. I wonder if hybrids will be used with CNG ?

[@intelligentfringe]

This is as smart as it gets re: future of oil, but it’s ultimately unnecessary. The MIC has energy tech underground that could obviate petroleum as fuel in an instant. Cf. “UAP” hearings of last summer.

[@MattieXMoto]

The chance for peace is zero

[@jcmjcm1945]

Bring on the 114+ baby we need the government to admit we in rescission / deptess erra. If you dont think we are already, you are in lalala land

[@ryansmith3369]

should have Art Berman on to debate Doomberg... Art seems so have a BIG problem with Doomberg.

[@CollectorChronicles]

One thing about internal combustion cars is that poor people willing to work on them can keep them going. Myself and some of my friends have 80s cars and we can go to a junkyard and swap out engines and transmissions and have a set of wheels even if we're behind the 8-ball financially. If we can save a whole car and all these parts from the crusher I don't see how that isn't helping the environment. And incidentally I'm a Mercedes guy and Mercedes-Benz still makes parts for very old cars that are pretty much always a higher quality version of what left the factory.

[@Evelynlee89096]

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It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!

[@NguyenChau703]

It is really refreshing to see a comment about Flora Elkin.I have worked with her also for months now, reached out after reading more about her on the internet. she simplifies matters, whether it's a market surge or drop; her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the trend, She's a guru i'll say

[@kristianscout]

Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary

[@ZarikaIraka]

Nice to see this here, Flora Elkin's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch

[@sg305]

shale oil needs oil to be higher than $50....$70 min espeacially when dollars are worth less.

[@rolm7877]

Doom erv How natural gas is cleaner if you need to inject water with all these additives to ground ?