The Truth Behind The 2024 Housing Crash (Fraud Warning)

To get to the bottom of any crash what you need to look at is actually pretty simple. You see while economists, experts, KZbinrs, authors, and bloggers all like to make complicated predictions regarding the real estate market, what it all really boils down to is inventory. How many houses are for sale? This simple fact is the ultimate driver for figuring out whether or not a crash can unfold. To understand what it takes, we can look at some recent history and then compare it to what is happening right now.
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[@austinbar]

In the USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.

[@rogerwheelers4322]

Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

[@joshbarney114]

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[@FabioOdelega876]

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[@joshbarney114]

Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

[@FabioOdelega876]

I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Marisa Breton Dollard up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.

[@slacktronic6587]

It's an affordability crisis. "New Normal" should never be something we should settle for.

[@paulbrungardt9823]

If you voted Biden / Harris--You voted for this ! Now Enjoy !!!

[@user-iu2kq7nx8u]

​​@@paulbrungardt9823Same if you did Trump . Tax cuts for the rich and I can't deduct what I used to anymore AND IT'S LIMITED. Paying more taxes now!!!!🤬

[@straightdrive6192]

Not affordable means you are poor, Get over it and re-skill. Lol

[@ADMONIUS]

@@straightdrive6192Once most people can barely afford to even live underneath a roof is when things become more than a “skill issue”.

[@kennypowers2429]

This is insane. Inventory is skyrocketing. The consumer is dead and so is the economy. The idea the economy is fine is a joke. Inflation will continue to rise and purchasing power will continue to fall. The market and home prices are so detached from reality there's no such thing as price discovery any more. Median HH income and unemployment is falling in 88% of states. Credit card debt is at ATH, car repos and delinquencies are exploding and the number of small businesses that have been delinquent on loan payments is the highest it's been since 2008. All the while, families are spending, on average, $11,000 more per year for basic necessities. Once people find out this is all a charade and companies like Zillow, builders and this administration are rigging the numbers to keep things artificially elevated. I'm a builder in TN and everyone knows this idea is nonsense. Not to mention, commercial real estate is crumbling which will have a massive effect on banks willing to loan money. And don't get me started on Florida. Homes on the market are rising. Sharply. With no buyers. Home sales are at their lowest level in 30 years and home values are at least 30% above long term averages. Not to mention the debt market will melt down. But, hey, don't worry about that. Everything is fine

[@youflatscreentube]

Your synopsis what perfect. The content creator just lost a ton of respect from me. This current situation looks very contrived to me.

[@b4804514]

You are wrong. Corporations are making record profits off their inflationary pricing. Nothing is artificial about that. The stock market is solid because the companies are solid. Consumers buy at the high prices and have not stopped to slow inflation. Consumers are the real problem. Just stop buying and they can't

[@hockeymikey]

Inventory is not skyrocketing bro.

[@nonyaisinuse]

Soon as consumer spending dries up, because they can't borrow anymore, there will be a massive crash after the election. They will blame the orange man again.

[@metrocaptain]

@@hockeymikey In many markets it is. This is macro viewpoint here. You can find markets with low, or reducing inventory, but macro level (all 50 states included) has it *increasing* rapidly.

[@ryukirito2616]

I don’t know how this is sustainable. I make $100k/year and I can’t buy a home without the mortgage alone taking up 40% of my monthly income

[@antman7673]

Maybe a 100k income has been inflationed away to something different than it used to mean.

[@AtheosTheAtheist]

​@@antman7673 that's the point

[@HarryPotterFan1307]

Agree. It is not sustainable.

[@Ultrajamz]

Yeah people either riding their parent’s money or being irresponsible

[@Matt_K]

You should be happy since you cannot own anything, according to Klauss & Co.

[@EBHood]

I think one thing he is missing is an underlying factor that has never happened before. That is, large investors, primarily companies. Hiding there money in real estate like never before and pushing the prices higher than ever. Then they can dictate rent. Now they are not going to sale off so fast too destroy their own investments, but I wonder what happens when we can no longer afford the rent, to buy, it's hard to say. What happens if the company bellies up and is forced to liquidate their assets.

[@tradewisetv2801]

“Inventory” is not the driving factor when lack of buyers offsets the impact inventory could have. If there was only one Ferrari available in the world, and nobody wants to pay the asking price, then its price will decline until someone sees the value.

[@BPoweredLove]

"inventory" has always been the singular metric that agents use to attempt to determine price direction. But as we know, agents are the absolute worst at predicting anything. Their model always assumes a constant in demand and this is where they are woefully incorrect. So you are right - inventory (which is climbing anyway) is far from the sole factor in determining housing pricing.

[@jonathantaylor6926]

Yeah but nobody needs a Ferrari. You need a place to live.

[@tradewisetv2801]

@@jonathantaylor6926 A place to live doesn’t require purchasing a house. I’m renting after selling all of my real estate in ‘22. I just signed a new lease in my previous market, knowing my window to buy is approaching in the next 9-18 months. You’re certainly welcome to go buy a house at the highest value inflation of all time, the highest property tax of all time, a higher than what people are used to rate, highest insurance costs of all time, and highest maintenance and repair costs of all time. Or you can rent until prices revert to the mean, and the oncoming recession dampens housing related expenses. I’m no rookie at this. I’ve been trading markets for thirty years. Do what you wish with your money. Nobody’s stopping you.

[@tradewisetv2801]

@@jonathantaylor6926 A place to live doesn’t require purchasing a house. I’m renting after selling all of my real estate in ‘22. I just signed a new lease in my previous market, knowing my window to buy is approaching in the next 9-18 months. You’re certainly welcome to go buy a house at the highest value inflation of all time, the highest property tax of all time, a higher than what people are used to rate, highest insurance costs of all time, and highest maintenance and repair costs of all time. Or you can rent until prices revert to the mean, and the oncoming recession dampens housing related expenses. I’m no rookie at this. I’ve been trading markets for thirty years. Do what you wish with your money. Nobody’s stopping you.

[@tradewisetv2801]

@@jonathantaylor6926 A place to live doesn’t require purchasing a house. I’m renting after selling all of my real estate in ‘22. I just signed a new lease in my previous market, knowing my window to buy is approaching in the next 9-18 months. You’re certainly welcome to go buy a house at the highest value inflation of all time, the highest property tax of all time, a higher than what people are used to rate, highest insurance costs of all time, and highest maintenance and repair costs of all time. Or you can rent until prices revert to the mean, and the oncoming recession dampens housing related expenses. I’m no rookie at this. I’ve been trading markets for thirty years. Do what you wish with your money. Nobody’s stopping you.

[@fpanadero2626]

He was FOMO several years ago, then went Crash Bro, now back to FOMO! Lol

[@Sonofawildanimal4241]

Could there be a lawsuit from all the misinformation? Alex Jones was the last guy who got sued. These housing market gurus are reaching and affecting a LOT of people

[@missfromsunshinestate]

Yeah, he flipped again.😂

[@cobaltbroker]

I lived through 2008 as a real estate brokerage owner. It was a horrible time. People losing their homes, savings, even suicides. It took everything I had accumulated. I had to start over with two teenagers and go back to work as a nurse. Our lives are different now, but we are content. We live within our means...humbly. There are people who will suffer through this, but it won't be as widespread as people fear. My advise...live as cheaply as you possibly can, then use your savings to make a huge down payment on a modest home. If you do that, you'll be able to go on vacations, buy clothes when you want, and pay cash for a car.

[@red5standingby419]

A "modest" home in 2024 is like $300,000+ is most areas. How much was that same home in 2007/8? What was the average earnings of the people buying those modest homes then vs now? I'm willing to bet the rate of increase on the cost of the house compared to the rate of increase in income are nowhere near each other.

[@gc2276]

Your insights are astute, and it's evident that many individuals, myself included, have gleaned valuable lessons from the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. During that time, the construction industry bore the brunt of the economic downturn, with its ripple effects felt across all connected sectors. However, amidst the challenges, there were those who seized opportunities, capitalizing on distressed properties and turning them into lucrative investments. Homes sold for half their original value then would be considered a fraction of today's prices. Reflecting on the past 15 years, it's clear that numerous industries have undergone significant upheavals, influenced by unforeseen political shifts and questionable decisions by officials. Complicating matters is the emergence of a new class of billionaires, many of whom have amassed wealth through the creation of intangible, digitally-driven products devoid of practical value beyond their online presence. This dependence on virtual assets leaves these billionaires vulnerable to the whims of political decisions, as evidenced by the impending fate of platforms like TIK TOK. The impending consequences will serve as a sobering reality check for those heavily reliant on such platforms. History teaches us that every meteoric rise in popularity inevitably faces a reckoning in reality and requires correction. Take, for instance, the recent phenomenon of digital currencies, touted as one of the greatest stories of our time. It's remarkable how people have placed their trust in something lacking tangible existence, based solely on its narrative.

[@cobaltbroker]

@red5standingby419 you're correct in the wage vs home price, but if you get away from the 'hot' markets, the home prices are much better. Many people refuse to consider more modest communities, in more modest locations. Yes, it comes with a lifestyle reality check...jobs, schools, commutes...I get that. I can only relate to my own experiences, wishing I had lived that way in my 30s and 40s. My husband and I lost everything, including our oldest son in the turmoil, bankruptcy, foreclosure and loss of our businesses. I see the same things coming for those that bought a home in 2022 at the ridiculous price height of the market. Been there...done that. It cost me dearly.

[@CoinRunner175]

My exact experience. But no teenagers. God speed.

[@todaynottomorrow367]

I take your videos as a contrarian indicator. the fact that finally you have given into the fomo, The turn is near. Thank you!

[@fpanadero2626]

He was FOMO several years ago, then went Crash Bro, now back to FOMO! Lol

[@straightdrive6192]

finally he has realized what housing market is the best thing to have happed. You will realize it too but home prices may be up 20%. LOL.

[@F4URGranted]

That would be a good argument if he hadn't already said the same thing around june-july last year...

[@matto5547]

There needs to be an aggressive and swift correction in corporate owned single family homes. The timelines proposed to force divestments is entirely too long. The inventory exists, but the market is being squeezed by these companies that are happy to sit on empty properties to keep the market up. Either tax the shit out of empty homes, or force them to divest their SFH assets.

[@bms4654]

When people are forced to pay student loans, bankruptcy goes through the roof due to credit car deliquesce and people have maxed out every credit card they can get ahold of, you will see housing crash.

[@some5672]

So your belief is this unaffordable environment IS sustainable

[@BPoweredLove]

It appears so. I wouldn't bet a single penny on MHFIN being correct here. There are too many factors for me to type which are currently applying to downward pressure of house pricing.

[@cassidycross3406]

Landlords, Wallstreet, and foreign investors can still afford the market, and basically all of our lawmakers are landlords, soo...

[@honkhonkler7732]

​@@cassidycross3406That doesn't matter. They still have to be able to rent at a profit. Nobody can afford what they need to charge for rent either. These companies are also about to be forced to refinance much of their debt they used to purchase these properties at much higher interest, $1T this year alone.The writing is on the wall.

[@some5672]

@@cassidycross3406 that’s always been the case, yet markets crash all over the world

[@snakegriffin4928]

It’s sustainable because the rich can still afford to buy houses to put them in their “trusts” and “holding companies”

[@Cozc47]

Basically if you didn't get a house before 2021 you'll never be able to afford a house short of a lotto win or something

[@RedMighty68]

In my opinion, the catalyst for a flood of houses on the market will be high unemployment. People are maxed out on credit cards and are draining their savings and investments with late payments and payment defaults on the rise. Families have to cut back spending and this will cause a domino effect in the economy. I work in manufacturing and we have fewer orders which means we are currently building a lot of inventory and will be looking to shut down production and let go of workers until the inventory levels come way down. No job means you have to sell the house. I think the unemployment numbers will be on the rise toward the end of the year and into 2025. High inflation will eventually cause high unemployment. It may take another 6-12 months for us to see the next crash, but it is definitely coming.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

I honestly don't think it'll be that, nor that it even needs to be that. The Boomers are out of the workforce and there aren't enough younger bodies to pick up the slack. I think that there are many frothy covid era/AI hype jobs that went to young people but are starting to go away. But, rather than remain unemployed, I think those people will find work doing something else, only that something else won't pay as well. That's when we will see people forced to sell and/or relocate to smaller apartments imo. So lots of people are waiting for a traditional spike in unemployment but this isn't the 70's where manufacturing plants would close across the nation and large groups were screwed simultaneously. I could definitely be wrong about that though. All I know is that the boomer demographic means things really are different this time (but in a way that should eventually create a glut of homes, not this bizarre shortage we supposedly have).

[@VoyageSpectra]

I feel like this is just clickbait titles with very little substance

[@idnotapplicable]

I think people are seriously discounting the potential recession adding to the supply very quickly. Sure many homeowners have a lot in savings and can hold out if the recession is long, but there are plenty of homeowners living paycheck to paycheck and mortgage payment to mortgage payment. Not to mention the real estate investors who will likely be forced to sell if no one is renting their properties because they don't have the funds to do so.

[@jonathantaylor6926]

It really comes down to bond yields.. the 10 year at 4.62% right now.. thats not high enough to cause a mass investor exodus, but it's getting close. 5.5% would probably do it.. 6% or anything above 6% is basically a guarantee to crush housing. Hundreds of billions of dollars was used to buy rental properties when bond yields hit rock bottom in 2020... no investor wanted a 10 year bond paying 0.55%.... that is $5,500 per year on 1 million dollars. It's currently at $46,000 per year on 1M.. getting tempting. 60K on 1M and many landlords stop being landlords. What's important is landlord selling is WAY different than a person selling their primary.. when a normal person sells they add corresponding demand for their next house... but an investor could sell 1, 10 or a 1,000 homes... and buy zero.. this is how inventory explodes.

[@mrtmanatlful]

I always tell older people I know that the safety net between the older folks and the younger generation is tremendously different. People in their late 40’s and up probably have a decent amount saved up and can survive being laid off for an extended amount of time. The reality is so different for folks that are younger than 40. They’d likely be unable to pay rent in one month of being laid off. There’s so much wealth disparity cause of real estate.

[@red5standingby419]

A crash is coming, not sure about on a national level but in many... many areas of the country. The prices of homes have become untenable. Especially with the rise of interest rates. Interest rates alone slashed how much I could afford by like 50%. And any home in most areas that are 250k or less are what used to be 100k starter homes. People's income has not and is not keeping pace with inflation and the cost of housing (buy or rent). Hell huge corrections have already started in places like Austin and Phoenix.

[@BPoweredLove]

Yep. Right here in my town of Phoenix, the crash is VERY evident. Inventory, especially in luxury STR housing, is growing at a crazy rate.

[@jonathantaylor6926]

The force that will likely cause a housing crash is inflation. This is because yields and the inflation rate are correlated. If the 10 year can manage to hit 5.5% or 6% a housing crash would be a near certainty at that point. The 10 year at 6% would push mortgage rates into the 9''s even for well qualified buyers. And 6% on the 10 year would be a highly attractive alternative to being a landlord. For a housing crash to occur its investors that need to sell. When a person sells their primary residence they add corresponding demand by buying a different home. However an investor could sell 1, 10 or even 1,000 homes but add zero demand as they are rolling that capital entirely out of the RE sector. Huge money rolled into RE when the 10 year was paying 0.55%.. who wants to make $5,500 on a million dollars? Thats absurd. But $60,000 on a million is an entirely different story.

[@exmarine268]

So, few people can afford a house, but this is not a factor? Zillow lists fraudulent values, but this isn’t a factor? Interest rates will keep rising, but this isn’t a factor? The bond market is teetering on collapse, but this won’t affect real estate? The price run-up in 3 years is hyper-inflationary, and is absurd. Greed is rampant. It will crash.

[@ryukirito2616]

Pus there are rises in property tax and insurance, so accommodate the rise in home prices. I honestly don’t know how people will keep up with

[@digitalrevaz]

Won’t be housing dragging down the economy this time like it was in 2007. It will be the opposite scenario. I worked at Countrywide and Schwab and saw it from the inside.

[@jessicabixler1658]

There is actually lots of fraud. Mostly investors getting first yime homebuyer benifits out of highly leveraged rentals and air bnbs. Also hard money loans and cre

[@JonSmith531]

Correct. Occupancy fraud is HUGE. Arrests just started on this. Get ready.

[@Wolf.of.Gotham]

Get use to it, these house prices is here to stay, it's the New normal. Most likely, prices are still going to keep going up, We might see things slow down a bit compared to the crazy growth over the last few years. At best, Homes prices might flatten out for some time, so wages can catch up. But Make no mistake, these prices aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

[@straightdrive6192]

yes, I always tell prospective buyers to stop listening to doomers.

[@AsiehMansour]

Wow! What a great video. you so well articulated. Monetary and Fiscal policies should work hand in hand to have a full effect, but we live in an era where government just doesn't care, it will spend and double-down and spend more and more.. it just doesn't care, and it would debilitate the monetary policy. The sad outcome will be likely BOTH the transition to a digital dollar CBDC that will give ultimate control to the government thus shrinking even more the independence of the central bank. At some point the central bank will have no actual meaning left. Honestly, it feels we're not too far from it already..... I would buy Bitcoin and buy hard assets like gold /silver as a store of value while also actively trading...The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@flushrock]

The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….

[@ptitridon]

This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.

[@TeeRaa-bj1or]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@sc8o7tt]

It really helped trading with Francine Duguay analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..

[@Edwandrocynthia]

I read about her too on the website. That is how I get connected to her. Thanks for putting this down here

[@nickvin7447]

This time around is different. Famous last words of everyone that is uninformed.

[@kdubs9111]

This is what ignoring the variables that get in your way looks like

[@nuno1007]

Respectfully…. I think the author is looking at it with the wrong premise. Fraud, inventory, local market conditions… these are all triggers. But the underlying issue is “is the market overvalued?” If so, then anything can trigger a correction, how big a correction? That’s the question isn’t it ?

[@agates9383]

As has been mentioned - largely, realestate is local, if theres a high demand area where there is a unit shortage prices will be higher or sticky longer but at the end of the day everything ALWAYS reverts to the mean

[@lrod312]

No catalyst for a crash?? People are getting laid off left and right and it doesn’t help that inflation is crippling people’s buying power and when the general public has to cut back on essentials like food, that means less demand for real estate shopping and thats an omen for something worse than ‘08. The commercial real estate market is already beginning to crumble at the weakest points starting with the urban areas. And single family home inventories are piling up because the cost to own has gotten much too expensive.

[@tonyjohnson8036]

This guy is a joke, probably a paid propagandist. I’m a home builder, just retired as I see the crash coming, any fool could see the cost that we were charging in 2019 and in my market the homes went up 40% to 60% . It sucked but but business was booming but said as long as interest rates stay low I’m still in good shape as people can still afford the payments. But when rates started going up I knew it was only a matter of time. WARNING EVERYBODY !!! The market is going to crash hard!

[@MHFIN]

America's largest home builders since March 2023. The day rates hit 7%. D.R Horton +45% Ryan Homes (NVR) +42% Lennar +59% Pulte +82% Let's be real

[@tonyjohnson8036]

Most large builders in my market are not able to sell their homes they are turning them into rentals! That’s the ones that can afford to hold them.

[@rogerhayek3782]

What happens when people can’t afford to pay rent, much less the minimum payment on their credit cards? You have big investors with no revenue coming in, and that means a big crash. There’s a reason we are all thinking it’s coming

[@BOOMCRASHBANG]

Appraisers held to a different standard? You mean zillow redfin sellers naming whatever price they feel? 😂 that is your bubble there and job layoffs will spike invintory. There is your catalyst 🤝

[@MHFIN]

Where are the layoffs?

[@red5standingby419]

@@MHFIN Started in the tech sector. Haven't done the math on them all but probably well over 100,000 laid off in the past year or so. Just a google search away. It may have started there but as people max their CC's, and essentials like groceries and basic supplies continue to inflate in price significantly, they will stop spending money on non-essentials you'll see the layoffs spread.

[@mrtmanatlful]

@@MHFINQ3 2024; corporate profits have been terrible to start the year. Companies are preparing for layoffs as we speak.

[@nickvin7447]

@@MHFIN Tech has already laid off substantially. Wait until government spending drops (guaranteed to come), you cannot prop up an over inflated economy forever. It is as certain as death and taxes.

[@scottmillion849]

You only showed ‘existing’, not ‘new construction’ (which is in free fall atm) and failed to show how existing follows nc with lag.

[@johnfaris5376]

I couldn’t disagree More, there are plenty of land mines to take out the market. Household debt is at all time high, household savings at all time low. Inflation is vastly higher than what is reported, and people are really struggling under that burden. Foreclosures are going to start exploding, and that inventory is going to make a huge difference. I think the government will keep the economy propped up as best it can until after the elections, but watch out then.

[@SpectreLance]

Ironically, rate cuts will cause prices to go down as the housing logjam clears out.

[@JonSmith531]

Rate cuts occur to juice a falling economy when people are losing jobs. That's what puts inventory on the market. Not the 'rate cuts'.

[@Weediddy]

Agree 100% adding one thing most real estate experts tend to miss: the MACRO economic landscape. Asset price inflation related to M2 money supply is probably the most obvious, yet underdiscussed factors bc it causes eyes to glaze over. Adding $6T to the economy during 2020-2022 has consequences. Another reason there wont be a significant crash is the crazy 120-130% US debt-to-GDP that will NOT allow the Federal govt to slow down inflation-inducing spending levels...not to mention the politics of cutting govt budgets. Great summary, just adding 2c here.

[@zondervonstrek]

A "no crash" scenario is very possible in the short run, but I think it will come at the cost of a lowered standard of living and far less spending on other goods like cars, furniture, electronics, vacations and eating out... the things most of the economy is based on. Its hard to predict but to seems like that will lead to job loss and recession down the road.

[@kylepostlewaite]

60% of homeowners have a mortgage under 4%. There wont be a housing crash. Its just going to stagnate cause no one is going to give up all the equity or take on higher interest rates for existing homes. Best you can hope for is mortgage buy downs from big national buildersand more bew housing as we're about 5M units short.

[@zman28159]

Rents are way to high to afford I am a disabled Veteran I am renting a corner of my friends living room he and his brother and I can make things work but for me to be able to have a place of my own now is impossible My disability check is not enough make it.

[@bgpurser]

It is kinda funny that the most common thing said before a crash is everything’s fine. Go read articles from 2007, “real estate expected to go up, everything’s fine.” Then It wasn’t.

[@naps3386]

@MHFIN has called 500 of the last housing crashes since 2008. The dude is relentlessly wrong. If you listened to him you are now sitting on the sidelines and interest rates continue to climb, locked out of the housing market perhaps forever. Great work MHFIN!

[@prasannagaikwad2349]

Just yesterday, in the Bay Area, house listed for 1.25 million got offer for over 1.6 million, I am not sure how a First-time home buyer can even compete forget affording to even place an offer, I am speechless and completely lost while waiting on the sidelines ... I dont see any hope :(

[@ap774]

It sounds like the only way home prices can drop is if more homes are built but they keep building apartments. So even if housing development tripled it would take about a decade to catchup to demand before a supply issue could even occur.

[@myspace6284]

New home sale month supply is 8.5%. Florida housing inventory is back to 2019 levels. % of renters in 2024 is up almost 10% compared to 2008 so inventory stats are not comparable to the GFC era. Rental properties are overbuilt and rent prices are dropping. And yes, corruption is at an all-time high. When the market turns south it will be interesting to see what new schemes and dirt come out in the wash!

[@KippinCollars]

There's a lot of fraud in the current situation. People with paid off houses used personal home loans instead of commercial loans for their investment homes. It's fraud, and the banks will call in the loans when they find out.

[@SeanPannella]

The major thing that is different this time is the institutional investors, institutional investors holding will be highly correlated to stock performance, meaning during a good period for stocks housing will spike really high but if stocks crash so will housing since institutional investors now drive the housing market

[@raulp8191]

Florida is at an over 6 month supply, price reductions everywhere, investors have backed out, and only a small percentage of locals can afford to buy with prices, rates, and insurance being so high.

[@R0CKtheR3D]

You mentioned we have nothing to pair with high prices to pop the bubble, but we do. If the government decides to crack down in any way on companies buying houses, this would be the pairing we need.

[@jimbopeebles8210]

The only regulation that made an impact after the GFC occurred in the banking industry. Every perverse incentive to drive house prices up still exists throughout the real estate market and therefore all those bad behaviors are still occurring. We might not see a price collapse like during the 20s or 10s but there is just no way households can afford a 40% increase in cost over the course of 3 years and so eventually a correction is coming.

[@jacobormsby9241]

The only reason we havent had a crash yet i because of the government. Specifically government spending. Our natuonal debt has nearly doubled in the last 5 years. The fed has basically been giving money away for free for the last 10 or so years. They are trying desperately to avoid a downturn or crash but in doing so they are simply delaying the inevitable. And by delaying it, it will be so much worse then if the economy had just been allowed to do what it needed to do. We are heading for a depression, not a recession

[@alyross2850]

I don’t know if the old rules apply. Normally, I’m all about the past being the best indicator. But we just don’t know anymore what lengths our government will go to. They operate without rules, without concern for our opinions, or even, our votes. They will do whatever is best for the individuals who happen to be in charge at the time. That is our best indicator, unfortunately. So what would “they” want at this point? They probably want to scoop up as many properties as possible so you and I can rent and be beholden to their whims and impulsive lawmaking. So how can they make that happen? Keep prices high until nobody wants to buy anymore. Sellers become desperate, regular people are too strapped due to the ridiculous economy and credit standards that only the very wealthy can buy. I’m sad and disappointed in so many ways, but that’s my prediction.

[@zztops4504]

I say 2x 1997 all over again. Zillow estimate on my house was $167,200 2/3 weeks ago then jumped to $222,000 and now it's $227,200.

[@KevinVanGelder]

You're missing the fact that the commercial mortgages are similarly fraudulent, and the bankruptcies that will result from that becoming common knowledge will cause people to lose their jobs, resulting in foreclosures leading to a huge influx of inventory.

[@brianh6680]

What are you talking about?! The issue of subprime mortgage lending was front and center in documenting the 2008 housing bubble. But there's no imminent crash coming because the fundamental problem remains supply due to these factors... 1. new construction still lags 2. majority of homeowners have a mortgage under 4% and not selling 3. rise of short-term rentals It's a perfect storm when combined with higher Interest rates and competition from institutional investors, and will take many years to unwind. The best way local and federal government can respond is to ease zoning and permitting for new housing stock, and place restrictions on short-term rentals and institutional investors for existing housing stock.

[@TOMinPDX]

Breaking news April 30th 2024: "US home prices jump by most in nearly two years in February, FHFA says"

[@jamescarter8662]

I was dabbling in real estate during that period. I said then that the true money was being made by the sellers, agent, appraisers, and loan originators. The got their money up front too. I have been involved since 2012. I was surprised to recently see that they are doing adjustable rate mortgages again! 😱😱That was the first time that I ever wrote a politician. I was against the TARP bailout because it didn't address the real solution. They need to reset the APR on ARM loans to the original rate and lock them in. This would have avoided all of the foreclosures. Also ensuring the original profit projections of the banks. They hung the home owners out to dry and forced to squeeze blood from a turnip! The banks got rewarded for bad business practices AND higher potential profits. Unfortunately for the banks, they are designed to hold the mortgage, not the actual home and it's holding costs as owners defaulted.

[@patmagic3301]

If there was a meaningful correction, what then? Let’s say, for whatever reason, home prices corrected so that no more than 25-30% of the household income went to a mortgage again. What happens to everyone who’s purchased a house the last three years. Do we rerun 2008. And, what’s more realistic, wages meeting mortgage rates or home prices meeting average income? 🤷‍♂️

[@mrxiong2567]

Nope. No crash in 2024. Again, no crash in 2024.

[@brianscott5379]

The major crisis is in commercial real estate that is the major Catalyst that will drag everything else down with it

[@ca417pc9]

The bulk of foreclosures were prime borrowers with 2+ loans. Nothing to do with subprime borrowers.

[@dennisleise5393]

Interesting point on the fraud contributing to the crisis. The new fraud is price fixing/institutional buyers.

[@straightdrive6192]

you guys should get out more and interact more. there is absolutely no chance of a crash. Yields are falling and no way going to breach 5%., and home owners have tons of equity to cause a blip, My only worry is how much High prices going to surge because of rate cuts. This channel is made to people feel better esp people waiting for a crash. Lol.

[@honkhonkler7732]

Real estate doesn't operate in a vacuum. You're ignoring the entire economic reality around you. All of those low rate mortgage holders are about to be out of their homes due to unemployment, either through foreclosure or panic selling. The wheels are coming off the market now that the delusion we've beaten inflation is over. Massive debt bubbles have consequences.

[@straightdrive6192]

@@honkhonkler7732 the difference is I see it as a supply demand economics rather than a bubble, A supply demand economic cycle has its own way of handling things, right now we are at depressed home listings compared to historic levels. 74% of home sales in California in April 24 had a price increase YOY., I seriously think crash people are delusional.

[@WTH1812]

2007-2008, Unsustainable mortgages, subprime lending was well known. The biggest problem was oversight by government agencies. Banks/Mortgage companies would line up with the agency with the laxest regulation, and agencies that had nothing to do with mortgages got into the market in an effort to improve their visibility, and business. It did not go well. Like most of the G "W" Bush Administration, economic insight didn't get past the eyelashes, much less the tip of the nose. As foreshadowed by the 1987 Black Monday Stock Market Crash, and associated World financial crisis, the edge of the cliff was already in the past. The only question was the size of the SPLAT at the bottom.

[@chs665]

Thank you for these insights, I learned something. But, how will people ever afford a house now? How can those of us that want to move , how can we afford the next house at these prices?

[@michaelsd284]

The 2008 housing crash was NOT because of inventory level. Inventory as a result of mortgage defaults due to prior years of lending practices that allowed people to buy homes they could not offered (subprime mortgages with variable rates coming due in 2008). the current market is very very different. We have no mortgage default catalyst to facilitate significant home price drops. Current home owners have mortgages at half the current rate, so no pressing need to sell or decrease asking prices. This is not a new normal its just an abnormal plateau that will take years to correct home prices. The best option for buyers is to buy new as home builders will be the once under pressure to sell.

[@Jay_dey]

What about when real estate investors loans mature?

[@michaelsd284]

@@Jay_dey Can't imagine why anyone over the past 5 years would have taken a variable rate loan as the rates for fixed were in the 2% range, so basically can't getting any better. For investors the rental market is at an all time high both for demand (cause few can afford to buy) and price so again no significant catalyst to drive selling. Keep in mind this is a nationwide issue, so their maybe pockets of anomolies where there may be impacts driving some sellers (aka coastal communities suffering significant insurance increases).

[@Jay_dey]

@@michaelsd284 yep rent is so high that people are maxing out their credit and moving in with family or finding housemates. True landlords can’t afford to lower their prices but tenants can’t afford to rent from them.

[@jacksonmeyers1698]

Pretty shocked at this analysis (not sure if I missed this podcast was sponsored by Redfin). The Fed inflated this artificial real estate bubble and it will pop when the Fed can no longer keep it going (cant buy trillions in MBS and keep interest rates artificially low). When we enter a recession (some argue it has already started) and widespread unemployment occurs forced selling, short sales, and foreclosures will begin. Everything reverts to the mean eventually . . .

[@tehpanda64]

The crash doesn't start with real estate, but it will affect it.

[@ivannightly1919]

inventory yes but job market, ability to get a mortgage, many younger don't even want to own a home or car, location even stock market investor clubs

[@oas8766]

I used to make 100k/year in 2019. In 2023 I am making 1Mil/year doing exactly the same job, but for another company. People can not comprehend the amount of money the US printed in 2020.

[@glsracer]

I think that high interest rates, inflation, and salaries that are lagging will cause a housing correction in many places where house prices are 2 or more standard deviations above the historical growth level.

[@thomasrial4444]

Plus credit card debt the highest ever, car payments in the high 700’s per month, and younger families can’t buy houses which is supposed to help slowly increase prices over time. Gen X and boomers are sitting in their last homes and they don’t even realize it because moving is unfordable for everyone with a normal income right now.

[@mylesgray3470]

I got an appraisal last January and the value was exactly the same as our offer to the builder, despite our offer being 50k under asking. Made me laugh. What a joke. Talk about an easy $800 for that person.

[@Triangletox]

What ELSE could trigger a 200-like housing downturn…? How about regional bank failures escalating putting pressure on big banks to produce more loans in the residential sector?!? How about a commercial real estate decline that applies the same pressure?!?

[@Jay_dey]

Uhhh what about interest rates shooting up? Rental real estate bankruptcy should loosen inventory yes?

[@ImAwakeOK]

The crash will come when unemployment rises significantly. The Fed has openly stated their goal of increasing unemployment. Once people start losing jobs a housing sell off will begin as many people that purchased homes in the past 3 years are barley able to sustain their current debt.

[@jamesosteen09]

Guy said for 2 years a crash is coming a crash is coming. Now no crash is coming lol.

[@user-wz7fo7bt2o]

The other catalyst will be interest rates

[@misterogers9423]

Possibly if we continue to get bad inflation news long term. I think the market would have a stroke if we get rate hikes when at the start of the year the fed said three cuts. The fed wants to cut but the recent fed minutes make that seem very unlikely. A lender I talked to said 0-1 cuts was more likely with 1/8 to 1/4 pts cuts at most.

[@scothaynes7178]

Good article, but I hate that the authors don't see prices fall back to Earth.

[@Juanw5ayne]

Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them

[@CarlosGarcia56590]

People prefer to spend money on liabilities, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable

[@BillySampson681]

You are so correct! Save, invest and spend for necessities and a few small luxuries relatives to one's total assets ratio.

[@AndreiKohler]

40% of all homes are owned by Institutional Investors. If the economy hits a downturn, and layoffs continue to spike as they have since the beginning of 2024, I wonder how that will impact the millions of homes owned by these Institutional Investors, and i wonder if they would be forced to list the homes on the market without adequate renters, or adequate income?

[@dojochuck]

You're gonna feel real stupid when prices slide again. It's inevitable since prices are so far from affordable levels. You must not be old enough to remember how many people said prices would never go down last time.

[@mktwatcher]

The Book and TheMovie a "The Big Short" definitely covered the issue of fraud in the residential real estate and home mortgages market.

[@apple1231230]

Idk what happened but it seems that after several years of saying the housing market will crash and it didnt, now that it is crashing hes saying it wont and is sustainable. i agreed with you for several years saying it would crash, and it is, i no longer agree with your thinking. good for being open minded i guess? but its not really an open minded situation, no one predicts a crash to the date and its a complex web of phenomenon that takes years to play out. Housing is and will crash, to what degree who knows. my guess is in about 1.5-2.5 years well bottom at near pre plague prices shortly and start a gradual rebound. well see

[@kel_yeah]

They act as if there isn’t bad lending this time around. Giving a mortgage payment to someone thats 40% of their income would qualify as poor lending…once again

[@HannahJoy333]

Talk about having your head buried in the sand …

[@joejones4296]

Houses by historical standards are way overpriced. Airbnb's will hit the market soon and the inventories will rise. Home prices will return to the mean or below.

[@Shuguiis]

I like your putting more content often now ,just keep the quality up and il keep watching and liking the videos

[@Micah1Powell]

If inventory was the only issue then prices would be even higher. There are no buyers. Unemployment is at 3.8%. What do you think will happen to inventory and buyers when unemployment hits 6% this summer/fall.

[@BPoweredLove]

I agree with you. Mostly. All except I believe that unemployment is currently much higher than that figure.

[@emanuelsanchez4922]

Unaffordable living = higher criminal activities, increased homeles people

[@paulbrungardt9823]

If you voted Biden / Harris--You voted for this ! Now Enjoy !!!

[@robertbender73]

When govt pumps in over $7 Tril of monetary stimulus, all prices become inflated as it takes more dollars, each worth less per dollar, to buy the same property. Will have to have offsetting period if deflation, and that will come from a severe recession.

[@andrewsalterhobart]

it's liquidity. all of you doomsayers on youtube talk about crashes but that "crash" in the late naughts was of its particular size and scope because of a severe liquidity crisis. too much risk, too many bets (multiplied via derivatives), private backstopping of the debt, etc. i never hear from you guys where the liquidity crunch is going to come from. until you can predict that, i'm not buying.

[@sapienscircus9404]

what if the dollar is no longer the reserve currency for the world? Would that be enough? Rhetorical question.

[@bccsivxx-xxivvii]

Grab some Tim Dillon clips with him talking about his job as a mortgage broker in the 00s.

[@yesitsme8943]

brother I don't know what you're smoking but over in Europe they passed legislation to to allow borrowing up to 50% of annual income "to give new buyers some extra room". aka prop up the market. Everything is local, but I just don't see this end well. The truth is tho that with all of the buyers being priced out, there's a lot of buyers on the sidelines waiting to jump in. Imagine AI will replace 5% of jobs (will be more) - where will that take us. Sorry, I don't see it

[@MHFIN]

See what?

[@allen2zulu]

People are rich!

[@Ms_Killy_Killjoy]

The houses sold in a neighborhood dictates current market value and can change with defaults and under/over payment of property. The market is overvalued and unsustainable. With Zillow buying up single family homes 40-60% above value during covid and black rock investing in the multiple corporations that bought millions of homes across the country, there is definitely a manipulation of the market. You're either being daft or a shill. How about this, instead of having ai write a script for you, why not do a little bit of research and coffeezilla the real story

[@Jebbis]

Isn't this fraud the whole subject of "The Big Short"?

[@BlackSheepDeity]

Can the something else be the weakened consumers who cannot purchase a home under current conditions?

[@FaithfulObjectivist]

Looking forward to reading the Griffin article. Thanks!

[@Artem_Gratis]

Yeahhhh appraisers are STILL matching loan amounts

[@Thyalwaysseek]

LOL the debt levels of Americans are massive compared to 2008, the government is printing the US dollar into worthlessness and the entire world is on the brink of war, but yeh everything is awesome in real estate.