The United States, China, And Taiwan-A Strategy To Prevent War

[@larsh2923]

Taiwan is an emotional and national Chinese issue. Taiwan has always been a part of China. It is a province that they first lost to the Dutch, then the Portuguese, then the Japanese. And China have always considered that a national disgrace, and they want it back. I don’t see America ever going to war with the Chinese to keep Taiwan independent. It doesn’t pay. You can fight and win the first round. But are the Americans prepared to fight, and fight, and fight again? Are they eventually prepared to pay the price that China is willing to pay over Taiwan? Remember that no Chinese leader can survive if Taiwan is lost under his watch. So for the Chinese, it is a very serious matter. Even if they lose the first round, they will come back for a second round, then a third round and a fourth round - incessantly, until they win. It’s not worth it for America. The Taiwanese will realise that over time if they have not already done so.” //Lee Kuan Yew

[@kb1422]

Trying to influence Beijing externally with traditional ‘western’ diplomatic methods will fail just like the ‘let democracy take its course’ policies of the ‘90’s did. Mattis rightly says the ‘will of the people’ is irrelevant to the CCP, but so is the will of the international ‘community’.

[@zhenqiu9579]

Thank you very much!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for your speech! And your support!

[@jonson856]

I must disagree with Zelikow on whether the Obama admin was "naive" or not. The problem is that China has been a rising problem only for those who were looking. Most of the people were not looking though. Yes there were articles and books. But the prevailing medium most people are using is TV and social media. And there we see a media that was extremely quiet before Trump. Trump, as unrefined as he is, was needed to shake things up so that the general public would wake up to the rising problem in the East.

[@empiricalpanzervii1556]

China is behaving like 1930s Japan, or even Germany and other powers that wanted back or just wanted more land.

[@hughmungus2760]

more like 1880s japan. Before it's military was tested against a western power. That being said, if china beats the US by taking taiwan its pretty much game over for US credibility.

[@lengthao8424]

It's the way around protecting itself.

[@fannibal]

How can the US side assess the situation accurately unless someone realistically can argue at the same high level for the Chinese side? It's like a legal case where everyone agrees on the verdict, and only is debating the sentencing. A high level discussion for sure, with a lot of wisdom and nuance, but completely inadequate given the millions of lives on the line if the US and China go to war. Unless a true representation of different viewpoints are offered, this amounts to nothing more than high level well crafted propaganda, reaffirming to educated viewers that a economic and even military struggle against China is justified. The gravity of the situation should be matched by not only high quality discourse, but also variety. This should be 20 hours long, and include high level academics from all around the world, including China, Taiwan, Europe, Africa, Middle East, etc. A war against China will be the start to WW3, and more people should be at the table to discuss if the run up to that war is justified, and based on well vetted intelligence.

[@overworlder]

Why does the free world keep giving the CCP capital and profits. We should be increasing tariffs, reducing trade, moving towards at least limited trade embargo. They are completely dependent on exports. They are an open enemy and we collaborate with holding up their internal stability and legitimacy with trade and investment.

[@xXxKingCrowxXx]

Always a treat to hear Mathis speak. His views are very refreshing; it is like I’m hearing Stephen Waltz speak on these issues. They echo the same sentiments usually. Big fan of both!!

[@70svd]

Hypothetically, lets say Taiwan is willing to submit to China and agree to one country two systems, what will the US do? Will the US deny Taiwan or will the US agrees to go along?

[@cassiecaradoc2070]

I'm not sure what they mean by "the weakness of domino theory" when pointing to Vietnam. When we pulled out of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos were indeed next, and the resulting genocides there killed millions of people.

[@akp167]

They were probably referring to Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, and some of our European allies.

[@nicolashofer5743]

The weakness of the domino theory is based on the idea that nationalist ideology trumps other political ideologies, incl. "Communism". The idea on the other hand that one domino after the other would fall assumes "Communism" as an ideology would supersede nationalism in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, ... etc. This has empirically been proved to be wrong. "Communist" China for example fought a war against "communist" (North) Vietnam in 1979. Concerning Cambodia: was the Red Khmer "success" despite or because of U.S. engagement?

[@alcalshel]

Then why Thailand weren't ?

[@lecorsaire2283]

The anti-communists purged a shitload of people too. There were no angels. We backed monsters in Asia and Latin America and I remind you that after Vietnam overthrew Pol Pot we actually support him! Many deny this support but the truth is they were more worried about Vietnam and the Soviets far more than atrocities which were happening all over the place. The Cold War wasn’t about communism. Sure we didn’t like it because communism threatened the interests of the corporations that our government works for. It was about American supremacy over Soviet supremacy just as the conflict today is about the US maintaining the top spot vs. China taking the top spot. Same story with democracy vs. authoritarianism. We would have the same position towards China if they were a democracy. If you don’t believe me look at what was being said in the Japan in the 80s. Back then Japan was today’s China.

[@garrysmith8451]

True Caradoc

[@patrickdoyle2510]

Greetings from Toronto. Since preventing failed states on your borders is of vital national interest to you people, are you not then compelled to rid us of Justin "blackface" Trudeau's government? It may be a liberal interpretation, but a little help?

[@laurikinker4306]

Why is no body talking of india and what role they could or would play

[@DesertPacificUSA]

Would be interesting to hear a follow up from Hoover on the corporate perspective - why there is no longer robust economic growth and business expansion in Taiwan, and why many of the largest companies in Shanghai are actually Taiwanese, an hour plane ride across the strait, and how this fits into the calculus. You mentioned the Taiwan semiconductor industry: TSCM (Taiwan Semiconductor, NYSE: TSM), the world's largest contract chip maker and the world's most valuable semiconductor company, is majority owned by foreign investors, with Fabs in Tainan, Shanghai, Nanjing, Washington, and recently announced plans in Arizona. Wonder to what extent the Arizona Fab is at least in part a move to further decentralize operations to mitigate the China threat, whether the US incentivized TSCM to make such a move, or whether its truly for other reasons (Intel simultaneously announced major expansion of 2 more Fabs in Arizona as well) - I don't understand the business dynamics enough to even wager a guess. Excellent discussion from the Hoover team.

[@tomtube1012]

You mentioned TSMC. I'm curious about this too. I heard that US is preventing China from getting their chips made by telling TSMC not to produce chips for them in order to stop their chip development advancement. But how is this possible when they have their fabs inside China? Shanghai and Nanjing are in China.

[@elliottwei9664]

TSMC

[@jeffrsopha]

This is traditional thinking. Seems obvious to me the economy and industrial production capacity is the root cause of how we got to things being what they are today. We need a war time like expansion of production capacity. Robotics have removed the cheap labor advantage. This is a good analysis but offers little in the way of new thinking.

[@michaelbrinkley5773]

India offering tax incentives to MNCs to move their operations there is a policy option that should be pursued by the Quad in my humble opinion.

[@burnsloads]

You're completely wrong. We need to #rekt China. Communism is the most evil and pernicious of human ideas and we should root it out and destroy those ideas by intellectual discourse.

[@larsh2923]

Best strategy for avoiding war is if U.S. go home.

[@chrismiller9740]

Where the hell is Patton and MacArthur when we need them?

[@jimluebke3869]

I don't know how much you guys pay attention to pop culture, but the blockbuster movie out right now is about how Japan and America team up to defeat an industrialized threat out of China. The fact that audiences are embracing it on an intuitive level like this, means it makes sense to people. Ever since Hirohito put on the Mickey Mouse shackle, Japan has used pop culture for discussions it was forbidden to have explicitly.

[@sherilcarey7100]

At the outset, I'm struck by the tangential mention of our interest in preventing failed states or hostile powers on US borders. Naturally the US military was never used for purposes involving domestic affairs before America chose revolution (and that was, in many respects, good). But it is quite the irony that we currently choose to bolster failed states domestically and even hostile forces within our domestic affairs which both domestic law enforcement and the military must be kept away from as they are reserved to their current job: the silencing of the political enemies of the revolution. Once corruption reigns (as it now does across the Supreme Court, the current leftist upper echelons of the military and all those who have supported ending real elections in America through perverting though institutions or simply as a matter of an individual voice of advocacy) there can be no more intellectual integrity. Now there must, of necessity, be domestic military force wielded against political enemies (of the revolution) and given the particular revolutionary nature of the corrupt regime that we have chosen, also continual beggaring of the people in the pursuit of propping up, and furthering the interests of, failed states. But don't forget: orange man=bad. Never forget that America pretended that every sin within politics including the worst were not really of any consequence. It was all "just politics" until the one man became a focus where only their hatred of that one man mattered; only his sins, the sins of one man were worth concern and opposition and even "bad enough" to be worthy of joining with all the other sins of all other politicians and overturning the vote and the constitution.

[@laurikinker4306]

Honestly it better now than later

[@Nepartinis]

God bless all Free World! God Bless America!

[@luckcharlie1]

Rediculous, what makes you think your world is free? For instance, in the states, freedom of being shot by the police? freedom of being rob by the mob? or freedom of not even safe to walk around in many cities after sunset?

[@martymajix91]

Ancient thinking knows today is a thing of the past. It take a speed reader to understand.

[@iikimida]

We are counting on Captain America please bring peace to the East 🇹🇼🇺🇸🤝🙏

[@MrsLovelyPendragon]

It's strange that the Uyghur Genocide wouldn't be the reason to go to war with China. Literal concentration camps, no mention of war. Why? Is it because of logistics, where the camps are located, financial reasons, I just don't get it. Honest question.

[@bjnartowt]

At the end of the day, "what's in it for us" (rather than "what's right?") decides military action. It's sad, but (as Jordan Peterson might say) the world is a tragic place. We did nothing about the Holocaust until Pearl Harbor, belying the aftermath of World War II in which there was a near-universal cry of "never again".

[@Yamamotoseto]

The United States must end strategic ambiguity to deter Chinese aggression. During world war 2 United States island hopped Taiwan because it will have severe casualties as the island was defended by Japan. USA was not able to take Cuba which lies 90 miles from the coast of Florida. Likewise China is unable to take Taiwan.

[@VytisMaleckasBrunius76]

High Response Fidelity! Appreciate this. Great and timely discussion. Great value. Thank you very much! V

[@walid7885]

Translations for those who don't understand English properly: 1- Strangulation of hong kong autonomy ------> Stopping the west from separating a Chinese land from China 2- Chinese increasingly assertive projection of military and Geo-political power in the indo-pacific region ----> Daring to surpass the US and replace it in the indo-pacific region

[@overworlder]

Or another way. 1. The CCP broke its written word on Hong Kong, showing it can never be trusted. Similar to its assurances it would never militarise the SCS. 2. Countries in East Asia including Taiwan have as much right to self determination and autonomy as the CCP. Most are US allies.

[@paulm8885]

My concern is that a small percentage of a CountryCanPrepare to survive a preemptive nuclear strike killing the rest of humanity. Prepared to go underground until the coast is clear.

[@Yamamotoseto]

I think Korea is different from Taiwan as in the case of Korea it is closer to the Chinese capital of Beijing. There is more urgency. This is from a historical perspective. Back in the 1600s China went to war with Japan in Korea and again in 1895 and again in 1950 this time against the UN. Korea is connected by land to the Chinese mainland. Chinese army has the numbers and also they sent a lot of the former nationalists who surrendered during the Chinese civil war. Taiwan is a different case it has the Taiwan strait which Chinese navy had never fought a naval war. Only naval war would be hainan but the straight is much narrower.

[@goodmoringful]

When China wants to reunify with Taiwan, they actually mean war and colonial expansion. China is the aggressor. Taiwan never belonged to China and never will. The people of Taiwan love their freedom and escaping their colonial past under the Chinese Qing dynasty, Japanese imperial rule, and the past rulers of the kuomingtong to establish a democratic society. I think that people living in the free world talking about the rise of China are freedom loving grifters. And when they talk about Chinese colonial expansion, they are colonial grifters who believed that in today’s age, countries like China should get a free pass in their colonial expansion across the Tibetan plains and the oppression of Uighur Muslims.

[@glennmitchell9107]

Are we confident that the United States' failure to assess the democratizing potential of opening up China was accidental, was not a result of agents within our diplomatic and intelligence communities that skewed their analyses and policy recommendations in favor of China and at the expense of U.S. interests? By not playing the blame game, are you being too gentlemanly in your tactics, potentially ceding the field to the subversives and collaborators.

[@kingcrazymani4133]

Greetings from Quincy, Massachusetts. Adm. Ellis’s poem is on point. I say this a few blocks from the Hancock-Adams Park.

[@hillyboychar]

Thank you for this insightful discussion

[@dougg1075]

The general is standing.

[@shenwu9058]

Rolling the iron dice on other people’s life

[@usaintltrade]

ART OF WAR

[@Erik-rp1hi]

US bases should be set up in Taiwan. A tripwire.

[@dimsum1033]

Reinstate the USTDC

[@kyungheelim1597]

Great webinar!

[@laurikinker4306]

A 3 prong attack from india in the south us from pakistan in the west and the us navy out the south china sea it sounds china would be hard pressed to expand

[@dwood2010]

Hope we hear what comes of the meeting between President Biden and Prime Minister Yoshihide.

[@lightnashadow7197]

In God American TRUST. G.O.D. gold from Philippines and all asian continent, oil from UAE and Drugs in South America.

[@greatdeceptionsoftheendtim9497]

How has America shown these preparedness behaviors and how have they influenced China in maybe taking the actions or reactions. Trump and other politicians have blamed China for this Pandemic and threatened sanctions. How do you expect China to react to that? Take responsibility to your own actions and think how it affects other counties. Stop putting blame on other and be part of the solution.

[@coolmark4851]

Delusional and misconceptions are abundant in this narrative. Don’t waste your time.

[@catchagoat]

If things kick off who will come to the aid of the CCP?

[@lengthao8424]

U and your family.

[@paulliu1611]

All you have a conclusion that USA will not get any damages at all no matter what US do to China?

[@rafiqibrahimnathanie1739]

Amphibious capabilities were proven. When Chinese jammed the U. S. Communication Systems for 37 Deafening Seconds.

[@oldranger649]

You need annotations enabled here.

[@usaintltrade]

48 LAWS OF POWER

[@sarahjones79]

🙏🏻

[@usaintltrade]

33 STATIGES OF WAR

[@laurikinker4306]

So strengthen india and pakistan make them focus east

[@dallasclarke]

Nah, it's about money. China moved on Hong Kong because it's running out of foreign currency and wants Taiwan for it's foreign capital and semiconductors.

[@morbid747]

You must be joking. China is well known to possess the largest foreign reserves in the world and they have their own semiconducter industry , not as advanced as other country but is expected to catch up in the near future. In fact , China just invested USD 1.7 trillion in their five year economic plan this year.

[@timmcclary5137]

ALOHA!

[@Brommear]

Good discussion. Thank you.

[@usaintltrade]

BEHOLD A PALE HORSE

[@laurikinker4306]

Tbh imo it's not about thwarting china's ambitious goals as it is to set the chinese back decades behind

[@rafiqibrahimnathanie1739]

The old guy in the yellow Tie. Mentioned the future of our children. Don’t worry they won’t be Caucasians anymore. All would have intermingled with Chinese, Africans, Asians, Hispanics. Will look like Naomi Campbell.

[@stan5250]

Not necessarily.

[@reginaldnaughton3994]

Ok

[@hughmungus2760]

hah. They would never bring that fact up in these kind of 'educated' circles without being chewed out for being 'far right'

[@rafiqibrahimnathanie1739]

You are not qualified to judge for the Chinese psyche or persona.

[@oldranger649]

So says the blank set up You Tube Troll

[@djan959]

Get a load of Mathis.. "this is a good start" ..what can you say to that.. give me word to describe dufus nth degree. .. I guess the word is professor, and "we need to protect the Kurds" ..good luck the each and everyone

[@laurikinker4306]

I think you need india

[@lengthao8424]

The USA is not that advanced like its say in semiconductor.

[@David_A._Ream]

Mr. Mattis, Did you have to wear a yellow tie???