How AI Job Replacement Will Actually Play Out

[@baraka99]

The frog is getting warmer.

[@Outoftheboxartist]

The water is starting to boil!!

[@SharperPenImageConsulting]

I’m okay with robots replacing advertisers. The extroverted corporate world will be no less soulless lol

[@MrBillythefisherman]

First the AI takes your tasks, then your job, then your department, then it out competes your company, then autonomous companies take over entire sectors, then entire economies and eventually governments at which point it decides where resources are allocated and then it decides water supply for its data centers is more important than for the local city...

[@philbear2185]

AI could enable businesses that are not possible today. One outcome could be that many more individuals can become business owners.

[@CMDRScotty]

Level 3 Agents, combined with things like 01 Pro, will replace white-collar jobs, and Advanced Robotics will replace blue-collar jobs. cashier, teller, call center, marketing, graphic designer, studios who make commercials, entry-level program jobs, High school-level office work, lower level legal jobs, some accounting, back office administration jobs like ones at a hospital, certain jobs like radiology, entry-level/Intern white-collar jobs are on the chopping block, for blue-collar frontline factories, warehouses, fast food, farming, taxi/rideshare, toll booth operators, textile, bartenders, truck drivers, port, and even some construction jobs will barely exist in 10 years.

[@-whackd]

AGI through screens and speakers, with the ability to take online actions, will take out most white collar work. Humanoid robots will come a little bit later. They'll take out blue collar work. Automated logistics (self driving cars and other vehicles) will come after AGI through screens and speakers, but before humanoid robots.

[@MoneyballUSA]

Most programming work is actually done by mid and entry level developers. Senior talent usually manages or sells the work. 99% won’t be needed.

[@tomcraver9659]

Predictable: While they WANT to save on labor, companies will first claim that they'll use AI to 'improve service' and 'be more productive'. Then they'll quietly start letting their workforce attrit (retirements, people quitting - they just won't replace them). That'll be the 2025 story at least up until late in the year, though there will be a number of more blatant and fear-generating cases of lay-offs from Ai. But going into 2026, 'natural' workforce reductions without replacement will have tightened the job market enough that it will start slowing the economy, and companies will use that to explain actual layoffs, rather than admit that they're getting more work from fewer people due to Ai. By 2027 it'll be obvious to everyone what's going on, so companies will simply start laying people off and saying that they 'have to remain competitive' and 'the worsening economy demands that we continue to take advantage of Ai to cut costs'. Behind the scenes, worried top execs will be trying to get the government to implement some kind of UBI, even if it means taxing them more, as they're getting scared that they're being forced into a deflationary spiral that will destroy profits and likely companies. Emergency measures similar to the Covid Checks may be taken as a stop-gap measure. Going into 2028, Ai and UBI will probably be big campaign issues.

[@fullclipaudio]

You can’t have Democracy and UBI. They are mutually exclusive otherwise people will vote themselves endlessly $$. Remember, the hand that gives is always above the hand that takes.

[@-whackd]

"Economy" meaning the amount of goods and services produced that humans need, will get better from automation every year, not worse. For example, 1 farmer who owns an automated combine harvester can produce thousands of acres of wheat, what took over a thousand farmers in the past. The economic result of the automation? We have so much food around the world even with billions of people, the bigger problem is obesity than starvation.

[@adolphgracius9996]

When all employees go broke nobody is going to have money to buy stocks or the products that those companies are selling

[@tomcraver9659]

​@@-whackd Long term, yes - probably with some "new deal" equivalent, stability will be achieved and probably we'll work far less, have far better lives, etc. But that does not mean we can't/won't go through a painful and possibly protracted adjustment period.

[@rexmundi8154]

I run a small machine shop that buys special cutting tools from authorized distributors. The sales reps for my area do not want to sell me tools. The $14,000 I spend a year is nothing compared to what they’d sell to a company like Toyota. I don’t blame them. They need the big bonus and commissions to make it worth their while. So AI has a role here. I’d rather deal with an AI that was trying than to harass an indifferent salesperson into helping me. Be careful tho because the AI might quickly be better at your job

[@Lewis-me7jr]

The AI will eventually be better at virtually all of our jobs.

[@coldlyanalytical1351]

Excellent analysis! One possibly key point : the easiest & fastest way to get to Phase 3 is to start a new AI based firm from scratch. You use AI to research the possibilities. Will the firm be profitable? What will be the best (human free) architecture? The software firms who provide the front end AI-based configurators and the various AI-based business modules will do well. Support firms such as Web ISPs, shippers who provide AI integrated services for external AI-based firms will also be needed. These environments may take 2 - 3 years to appear .. but then we are off to the races!

[@pandoraeeris7860]

It's gonna be a shitshow.

[@iwatoHyena]

I feel at one point if all the consumption farms remove jobs for the consumers. Then, no one can afford to consume their products, and the snake starves, in theory. It is best to try and be positive and the future will happen with or without us. Either way, great explanations. Two years ago, when i discussed this with co-workers, I became the "dystopian" theorist among them. Now, in current days, they always ask me about AI. The future will be interesting.

[@Lewis-me7jr]

I agree - it won’t be a dystopian future. Our current economic system won’t work in that brave new world, but is it really working now? The future of humanity will look very different. We were never meant to simply toil the earth like hairless apes for all of eternity. Most of us don’t get it, but our children will and our grandchildren definitely will.

[@iwatoHyena]

​@@Lewis-me7jr As the first one in my family born in America and growing up in NYC. My parents worked every single day multiple jobs from day one until they had to be forced into retirement since they didn't want to stop working but their bodies deteriorated as all humans tend to do. Growing up i rarely saw them and when I did they both seemed miserable and exhausted. I respect the fact they did everything to put food on the table but the idea of working to exist does seems like a bad dream. I the same have worked since i was in my early teens. Paid for my own college and worked nights as a bouncer for years while forming my business. Now in 2024 I have my own boutique studio for years and enough clients to maintain existence in NYC for now but I fear AI will 100% do my job and most likely most people's jobs in the somewhat near future. Am I sitting here shaking in the corner? Not at all. I embrace new technology but I also understand the cost when most people try to tell me when the camera was invented did painters stop painting. But AI is more than a tool it is an entity. Before I go off on an existential rant hahah I feel as i've been on this planet for many moons it is always best to prepare for the future but never try to predict it. Short story long I agree that we are definitely not living in a utopia. I would like to blame greed and control etc but negativity has never really gotten me anything but a goth girlfriend who genetically couldn't sweat and now we have to stay indoors prepping for the neural chip to guide us towards endless sunsets and cloud based paradises comfortable while inhaling conditioned air minimal synth bass leaching into our ear canals until oblivion summons us all into the abyss...

[@BruceWayne15325]

People are looking at the wrong problem. AI taking your job isn't the problem. The problem is that AI is going to cause deflation since products and services can be done for less. Competition will drive prices down, which will cause deflation. That sounds great, until you consider that also means that wages will go down. Now that doesn't seem like it would be a huge problem, if prices go down at the same rate as wages... The problem however is debt. Your $500,000 home is probably a loan you are paying. You can make those payments with your current salary. But what happens when you're only earning 1/2 that much, or less because AI drives down the cost of things, and thus the wages companies pay out? The 2008 market collapse would be a joke in comparison.

[@Tubekonto9]

Wrong. Prices will go down and wages will go up. AI is a tool. Humans will use AI to increase their productivity. Increased productivity means more wealth. As people learn to use these new tools, we will see an explosion of creativity. We are entering a golden age.

[@BruceWayne15325]

@@Tubekonto9 I certainly hope you're right, but current trends would indicate otherwise. For example, my neighbor has been looking for work for a while now, but companies are only hiring jr. developers. When he's asked them why they aren't hiring senior developers, they've told him that with AI, jr. developers are performing close to senior devs in most areas, so they can get more development for the $ by paying jr. salaries. It won't take many big companies thinking like that to force sr. dev's to take jr. dev salaries to make ends meet.

[@Tubekonto9]

@@BruceWayne15325 The key to prosperity has at every age been to produce more with less. More powerful tools reduces the cost of production, increases the amount that can be produced, increasing availability and lowering prices for consumers. With AI and robots one person can produce a lot more than without such tools, and therefore make more money. Now, as we are entering the age of AI and humanized robots, obviously there will be a transition period, where we will see some unemployment as ways of production changes. Maybe some occupations become obsolete, but most will just change. A translator will use AI to do the rough draft, and than proceed to make minor adjustments where needed. Artistically minded people will use AI to produce works of art that previously would have required physical skilles they dont possess, but no longer need to aquire. Medical professionals will use AI to assist in interpreting images and make diagnoses, improving quality of care, as well capacity. And so forth. In this transition period people will need to learn new skills. Specifically, they will need to learn how to use AI to accomplish their present tasks or to solve new taks they previously were unable to do. Labour is a scarce resource. People will still have jobs in the future, but they will not be the same jobs as today. The level of proseprity we will see in the coming decades will be mind blowing. Remember the enormous increase in wealth we saw with the Industrial Revolution? It will be that, maybe times ten.

[@Iron_Void]

@@Tubekonto9 Cope fest.

[@thebman80]

I doubt prices will go down, the entire point is to fire everyone and keep all the money and keeping prices high so they make more money.

[@dawidblachowski]

AI won't replace your job if you don't have any 😅 Who's laughing now 🤣🤣

[@amdenis]

That may be the funniest, and at the same time saddest thing I have read in a while.

[@georgikoev8966]

Something that we are missing here, not creating new jobs for humans is already kind of laying off future possible employees before they have even started, so even if they keep some of the current jobs active for a while the companies will stop hiring new humans. And second, but most important I believe, actually all the cost that will initially look like savings to the companies will eventually be paid to the AI corporations, at the moment they are selling the "AI labor" at loss, but once they hook the companies, there will be no turning back and of course they could start increasing the price as much as they want, that's why the hurry who will be first to create monopoly.. You know, some years ago google was free service for all, nowadays we are most likely paying at least a couple of subscriptions monthly, and occasionally receiving a newsletter informing us - starting now we are slightly (like for example 20% :) increasing the price, congratulations! Once you give up your business to them (like selling on Amazon) they can charge as they want. Sounds familiar?

[@philbear2185]

The government can start mandating lower and lower hour work days, or weekdays.

[@philbear2185]

the government has tools increase social benefits decrease work hours but I'm hoping AI will make possible the financial feasibility of millions of small companies (local, personalized services and manufacturing)

[@Tubekonto9]

AI is a tool. Humans will use AI to increase their productivity. Increased productivity means more wealth. As people learn to use these new tools, we will see an explosion of creativity. Prices will go down and wages will go up. We are entering a Golden Age.

[@Lewis-me7jr]

I agree entirely. But here’s the thing - eventually the AI will be us and we will be the AI. The singularity is upon us.

[@XentorAntarix]

nice theory. but how should the "costreduced" peoplem well buy the stuff of these companys without.... a job? . So alllll the time between phase 0 and 3 ?

[@Giuseppe-s3x]

Ubi that is majority funded by the largest tech companies

[@PoffinScientist]

companies will tinker with AI a lot in their critic times before filing for bankruptcy (and damn do they go bankrupt often!)

[@GNARGNARHEAD]

to me it looks like vertical AI will hit in 2025, task specific grounded GPT's that are fine-tuned on low-hanging fruit tasks

[@JakexGaming]

Agreed with everything here. Now the question is when will this all start happening…

[@fumarolas]

About a year ago

[@Lewis-me7jr]

It has already begun

[@TheAnax]

Personally, I think we will see a shift to a basic Universal Income for all people, paid for by taxes that corporations will have to pay on AI's and robots.

[@Den-c5d]

ask all those people begging for food where is their UBI

[@とふこ]

It have to be UBI, but it won't be that easy.

[@TheAnax]

@Den-c5d I think their UBI is in Elon Musk and Jeff bezo's accounts atm. Anyway, we'll see, once the tech is adopted, there will have to be a redistribution of wealth and a capitalism will end in any sort of way it was the last 10,000 years lol

[@TheAnax]

@@とふこ I don't know about easy or hard, but yes, it is the logical progression towards ultimately a moneyless society over the next few hundred years.

[@Lewis-me7jr]

All of this will accelerate during the next severe recession. Companies simply won’t fill the positions they eliminate. And the next recession - coming soon to an economy near you. And to those of you dying to write “we’re already in a recession” - you ain’t seen nothin’ yet….

[@SharperPenImageConsulting]

LOL - really makes you think those people charging 6000 figured out how to print money off companies who couldn’t figure out how to write the simplest corporate scripts. If it’s that easy to get rid of, it was never that important or “real” to begin with. Absurd.

[@sound4mation]

Wait until they realize that the real threat is A.I. consumers.

To AI we'll just be the mud pond it evolved from..it's VERY dangerous.

[@Den-c5d]

the most people will be jobless and homeless competing for resources with AI

[@oye4511]

👍

[@jacks7217]

I the route is going to be: Get rid of outsourcing, then stop hiring new employees and replace employees with AI. We are already hearing how Gen Z and Alpha are difficult to work with. I think it going to fall to Gen X and millennials to bridge the gap as labor and the economy changes.

[@markmartin2292]

Lower the retirement age gradually to bleed off excess labor.

[@GigaCrafty]

High tech. Low life. Coming soon.

[@jchandler1963]

The focus of job replacement is usually on the companies that adopt AI and how they reduce costs and the roles of the current employees might change. However the real job loss comes from all the other companies that go out of business, since they can’t compete, and every single one of their employees lose their jobs.