Is The U.S. Going Bankrupt? Debt Growth Is 'Explosive' | Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen, the Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science at UC Berkeley, discusses the effect on rising debt levels in the U.S. on the economy and growth.
*This video was recorded on April 26, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
2:17 - Debt crisis
7:00 - Capital gains tax increase
9:20 - Public debt and emergencies
13:38 - Fiscal dominance
15:00 - Debt failures
16:16 - Argentina and dollarization
17:10 - Debt consolidation
19:45 - Optimal tax rate
21:23 - How to cut debt
23:27 - MMT
24:00 - Debt and stock markets
26:00 - History of reserve assets
27:42 - Will China supplant U.S.
30:33 - New world reserve currency
32:50 - CBDCs
39:40 - Dedollarization
#economy #economics #investing

[@cl5619]

This guy is a Keynesian clown

[@joec8942]

So is your dad. Now we have you. Sad

[@mattolivier1835]

Yup! They're all Keynesians. Fools and losers.

[@difigfs]

Worse.

[@3ebra777]

Everything is under control, we just need to prepare for next pandemic and climate disaster. What a sh1t show..

[@astralislux305]

This guy's a Communist.

[@beninay]

Asking rich to pay their taxes is communism now?!

[@reikicowgirl9817]

That tired crap about “Buffett not paying his fair share” is absolute crap and red flags this guy as a socialist spouting talking points. How about abolishing the unconstitutional income tax? That’s how Buffett gets away with it…he takes no salaried income.

[@Phila80]

I agree 100%. This professor is a moron.

[@barrymadickiner]

And he's gay

[@StockGenius152]

Typical academic with little understanding of how the economy and markets work

[@nopeunlimited]

Oh God a climate change conspiracy theorist.

[@martynwaters2358]

Completely agree! Individuals like him (concerning climate) would benefit greatly, by giving a listen to: Dr. Richard Lindzin ( M I T) Dr. William Happer ( Princeton) CO2 is "the gas of life".

[@edc1569]

Are most of David’s viewers science deniers?

[@kevinford6420]

Also Lord Monckton blogs on KZbin will open your eyes.Climate change is a scam​@@martynwaters2358

[@liamrmorgans921]

@@edc1569 how dare people question the “experts” you agree with, right? You know which experts are the correct ones so theres no need for further debate

[@mfclevz8765]

This guy goes around claiming anyone who questions a vaccine a anti-vaxer science denier for sure.

[@highthereguys]

These people are literally the problem.

[@beninay]

Why? Taxing the poor is ok and but rich not ok for you?

[@highthereguys]

@@beninay never said any of that. Have any more fallacy’s to present ?

[@Sola_Scriptura_1.618]

I stopped listening once I heard the guest say, "Higher taxation is part of the solution." So, I didn't get past the intro! 😅😅😅 No one puts their capital at risk when taxation robs you of your rightfully gotten gains. I don't care who you are. The more the Government taxes my productive capacity, the more I manage my productivity. Why would I work hard and pay high taxes when I can work less hard and pay less taxes? If I would, why would a rich person? We do not have a taxation problem, we have a spending problem. The way I accumulated my wealth over my life was to spend less than I earned and save my wealth for later consumption. Governments can tax 100% of wealth, and they would still run deficits. Put the government in charge of a desert, and they will run out of sand!

[@gatedClock]

I did better; I cut out after he started talking about emergency 'clean' energy spending.

[@Sola_Scriptura_1.618]

​​@gatedClock I didn't make it past the intro at the 17-sec mark! So, I do not know anything else this "Academic." had to say. Those who can, do! Those who can't, teach! This guest is the poster child for this truesim!

[@Xrpurple]

Well, it is a big part of “their” solution.

[@dialecticalmonist3405]

But fairness is CAREness!

[@M3LTUP]

Same here. Thats when i wrote him off. Additional Taxation kills Economic growth.

[@markkovachis2932]

What this guy say… the opposite is true

[@kevinford6420]

👍

[@jimmykelly2809]

The problem isn’t taxes it’s spending.

[@frankie2xx774]

You’re right and then we the people have to pick up the bill because taxing the wealthy won’t put a dent in the deficit being lowered lmao 😂

[@Carlos-im3hn]

here here !! Bingo !

[@tuckerbugeater]

The deficit won't ever be lowered they're just trying to Stave off hyperinflation

[@kunghsu1]

It was "It's the government".

[@user-pq5rb8ju4w]

Not when government is your god and spending is mana. You're not able to get into the head of your foe. You're surely going to be defeated.

[@makeyourlifeeasier5794]

This man with his ideas is actually a college economic professor!! No wonder we're doomed...

[@888strummer]

He's much more political science than economics since every answer defends the Biden administration; he can't even blame Biden and the politicians(including many republicans) for the irresponsible over spending. He only blames the Fed

[@pauldarrigo4395]

Well said.

[@Phila80]

Agree 100%.

[@conduit242]

Another entitled boomer. Tax the wealth creators, not the wealth holders. That’s his big idea. Boomers hold 53% of US wealth and they’re drawing social security 🤣

[@verypleasantguy]

They kept on telling us how horrible China is, how China's economy gonna collapse, every single day, for the past 10 years

[@dptanner1234100]

This guy is so detached from reality please don’t have him back on

[@Carlos-im3hn]

I disagree, I don't mind Barry, since I like to see how the other side thinks...he is clearly deluded by fiat finance, and so is everything now, and since 1913 fiat finance "system". Yes, Professor Steve Hanke or Yanis Varoufakis (Former Minister of Finance of Greece) would be great counterpoints.

[@tuckerbugeater]

He knows exactly what's going on and he's selling you a narrative and you believe him LOL

[@joelbabb4752]

It is good to hear an ongoing status quo perspective even if it is dated.

[@user-pq5rb8ju4w]

Friends close, ENEMIES CLOSER. Cal Berkley, what did you think you were going to hear?

[@lclayton1330]

I thought I was the only person thinking this!

[@NatiaMaisuradze-ey5iq]

I've noticed how patterns in financial markets tend to repeat themselves over time. Artur Grandi's book offers valuable insights into keeping investments steady and explores potential investment opportunities, including the crypto market.

[@grantharding8868]

I don't believe this guys spin.

[@user-pq5rb8ju4w]

Spin? He's a true believer!

[@jimh5258]

This guy is very disappointing

[@grantharding8868]

Oh dear...Climate change. Now he's lost me. What a load of crap. The $34T will never be paid back. Not in this guys WEF view of the world. Who is this clown? You're a very patient interviewer, David

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Appears Barry is deeply MMT (without realizing he has been MMT "flipped" stuck in theory) in the hallways of UC Berkeley. Barry "is" modern fiat finance and political theory. This is why Berkeley is "mostly" politics and much less Austrian school. These factual high debts, high deficits, and high unfunded liabilities actually *do* cause economic collapses. Barry is exactly why we are now "stuck" at 5% rates with real inflation 20%. Too many "gaming" the system...like the Matrix movie games in the system.

[@jimarger8533]

My thinking too. Also, like how does political polarization come into the equation to try to balance the books and live within a budget. Interesting to see how the other camp thinks when it claims to think.

[@mickquinlan3]

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.” ― Margaret Thatcher. This “professor” gets a F on the exam!

[@Carlos-im3hn]

ha! love it. "The vice of capitalism is that there is an unequal share of the blessings; the virtue of socialism is that there is an equal share of the misery." -- Sir Winston Churchill

[@BrianWoodrowTN]

This guy thinks the economic shutdown was good, and that carbon dioxide is bad. What an embarrassment.

[@gatedClock]

we don't need CO2.

[@saucyrossy3698]

Yeah....because liberals are children who live in fantasy land. They think men can menstruate for christ sake. But hey theyre the 'party of science' so....guess theyre the experts.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Berkeley economists are generally less-than clear thinkers. Although a counterpoint is Peter Schiff was a Berkeley grad. Barry appears to be a modern ESG/MMT proponent lacking wisdom. I don't care how many books, classes, students or PhDs have "learned" from Barry or how many credentials. The Fed and US Treasury spending is out of control and MMT theorists have wrecked our US and world's future.

[@JohnSmith-ms8nj]

wtf David

[@dragonflydreamer7658]

This guy is the reason THREADS will happen

[@bobboberson5755]

Funny he seems worried Trump might do what Biden already did.

[@frankpizzo8971]

Political Science at UC Berkeley. Hmmmmm🤔

[@cl5619]

He’s a leftist commie

[@gatedClock]

he's not a Marxist, I guarantee it!

[@frankie2xx774]

Nahhh not at all lmao

[@cl5619]

@@gatedClock he talks of raising taxes on the rich as means to make the raising taxes on middle class and poor more palatable. Meanwhile, Congress recently passed a 90 billion dollar foreign aid bill. This is infuriating!

[@gatedClock]

@@cl5619 a few years back i was worried that red china would take us over. but now i worry about the rot from within. c'mon voters....

[@farzadshrazi9329]

This guy is more than happy to spend all the money on bringing down the level of CO2 😂, wars , vaccines and lockdowns etc , may be if we close down the Berkeley and other universities, we can make some progress in controlling the debt and inflation

[@frankie2xx774]

And also getting rid of fossil fuels and bringing in more clean energy lmao ya this guy we know which way he’s leaning professor lmao 😂

[@friarnewborg9213]

Evil guy, supporting misguided spending plans

[@mstgelais]

Well said

[@JBurns253]

I think this is the answer

[@imjustalilbit]

We live in an economy that is based on unlimited growth. We've peaked traditional methods which is why we are moving towards manufactured crisis and increasing oil consumption through EV's and carbon reduction. We are entering a disaster driven economy in order to continue economic growth

[@grantharding8868]

Debt will balloon by 2030?!...its already too high. This guy is on some mind bending drugs.

[@kayak9078]

I watch all your interviews but I couldn’t even finish this one. This guy’s reasoning is exactly why this country is headed off a cliff. Unbelievable that he’s a professor.

[@Darkskindiplo]

But he has so many books

[@TheControlBlue]

Academia has been subverted during the Boomers era.

[@Will_0001]

Most academics believe the nonsense he's spouting.

[@mikesim8480]

Unfortunately it is not a serious conversation when someone regurgitates political talking points such as Warren Buffet paying lower taxes than his secretary. Many academics and intellectuals are sadly unimpressive in person.

[@christopherbobin4268]

If you want a poster child for everything wrong with government policy, here he is.

[@runswithtrees6173]

Yeah Janet Yellen has a great sense of humor like when she said “inflation is transitory” over and over again 🙄🙄

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Yellen must have tossed Barry at some point...Berkeley grows so many mushroom thinkers. Yes, great for Silicon Valley and fiat finance...but sorely lacking Austrian credentials or philosophy. The Fed and US Treasury are heading for another massive global reset similar to what has always happened to fiat financed economomies. See recent Zimbabwe or Germany Wiemar Republic 1923.

[@user-pq5rb8ju4w]

Well, she IS a walking joke after all...

[@stevewoitas7217]

How about, "the outlook for the economy is strong" Oct 2007.

[@_jazzypants7321]

"We will never have another financial crisis" - Yellen

[@IcyCreamyDreamy]

She has a "great sense of humor."

[@viewerone]

This dude sounds dangerous.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Yes. Berkeley Barry is why we are not up the creek without a paddle. It would be great to see him take an Austrian Econ 101 class and see if he could fathom his own corruption.

[@garymcmillan6943]

LeftyNomics professor.

[@gzsg1]

He is stuck in the past. This is nothing like the past. Interest on our national debt will be $1.7 trillion by this December.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

"Oh no, no we won't give in Let's go living in the past" -- Jethro Tull

[@M3LTUP]

A 45% CGT means nobody will ever sell Assets. Taxing unrealized Gains means all the Millionaires and Billionaires will sell off U.S. Assets and leave the U.S. Places like UAE , Singapore , KL , HK will become the new World Financial Superpowers. The only real "solution" is to cut Govt. spending.

[@user-xw3vi4nk2y]

That is happening regardless. 0% is still better than 25%.

[@garymcmillan6943]

Blasphemy!!! Cut Government Spending?!?!?! ARE YOU CRAZY?!?! What politician is ever going to cut spending. Ain't nobody voting for that...

[@kunghsu1]

45% may be too high, but 35% may not be bad idea. Those wealthy guys leaving U.S. may be good for U.S. The countries you talked about have no political foundation to be long term success. Also, their assets will be taxed if they give up U.S. citizenship. An wealthy U.S. citizen making a fortune in U.S. and don't want give back even a little to help, should just let them leave.

[@M3LTUP]

@@kunghsu1 Nobody sells because the CGT is already too high. Raise % more and those Assets will be locked forever. Better idea would be to reduce CGT to 5-10% so more people will sell Assets often.

[@dazedhavoc]

How are these Ph.D.s in economics so detached from reality

[@datboi449]

I'd say he has a lot of misplaced trust in the Government.

[@grantharding8868]

Anti inflation mandate has failed miserably

[@cdog0331]

Your guests are normally always awesome. This guy sucks.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Yes. Barry only has "recipes" for disaster. Berkeley Barry need to go back to Austrian school for 5 years.

[@gatedClock]

it's ok, good to know how/what the lefties think. er, 'think'.

[@PatSpackman]

I agree, please don't have him back. Ever!!!!!

[@Darkskindiplo]

I’ve Never seen so much consensus on a KZbin video 😂

[@culturepreneur]

​@Darkskindiplo everyone hates this guy 😂😂😂

[@toutlesag]

In Barry, it’s so nice to have a Northern-California stereotypically “liberal”/“democracy” guy come back for a visit from the 1990’s past …

[@user-pq5rb8ju4w]

90's...WTF? This is pure 60's. 90's set the US up to run a SURPLUS.

[@FreemonSandlewould]

Oh great so raise taxes because higher income earners because "it feels good". Professor at Berkeley. Oook I'm skipping this one.

[@Namegoeshere-op9hg]

“There is no reason to give people social security simply because they are lawfully entitled to what they paid for.” This sentiment from what should be a respectable professor is merely emotional drivel and meaningless in terms of economic impact. In short, this is a political hack masquerading as an academic, but I suppose that is true of most economists. But I must say this is incredibly sad and obvious and pitiable that anyone would make such a fool of themselves like Prof here.

[@mfclevz8765]

I would be ok with them ending social security. If you are 35 and younger, what you paid in is gone but you pay no more. Everyone else that doesnt have the time to save we try to take care of to the extent we can. I would take it in a heartbeat. In the end anyone 35 or below will never see their money anyways, what makes the older generation more entitled?

[@jackwilliamson1929]

If you're not wealthy but you finally make some money and then you have to give half back is total bullshit

[@jimbobjim2310]

Yes. I was homeless in 2008 and just paid $50k to the IRS and State 2 weeks ago. It is what it is, my $$ is needed for Ukraine!!

[@JBurns253]

Totally agree. Sorry 400k and 1 million just aren’t what they use to be. A bunch of clowns

[@tbone5654]

Lot more than 1/2. Remember, the CGT rate is much lower than income rates because 1/2 the capital gain is actually just a reflection of inflation.

[@mfclevz8765]

Millionaire used to mean something, now it’s the bare minimum to be able to live comfortably.

[@drock430]

What a clown

[@eaglewing1415]

Any economist who believes in climate change policies should retire. His allegiance is not to economic disaster prevention but to a scientific theory that is wrong. Continuing debt creation by excessive govt spending is a bankruptcy pill.

[@ace9840]

Agree, Same with any so-called economists who got the 2008 subprime collapse wrong. It was as obvious as the dollar continuously losing purchasing power.

[@Cj2o]

Modern climate catastrophism isn't scientific theory, it's political theory supported by pseudo/junk science.

[@4ninefine199]

Wow... Talk about reaching over the fence. Impressive Spectrum of guests you bring on. Nice work David.

[@gatedClock]

true, no shade on the interviewer. respect.

[@craigenputtock]

So he thinks the Fed has prioritized inflation control? Which planet has he been living on?

[@crunchfishgames8245]

Does this guy not know that Janet Yellen worked for the FED then as the Treasury secretary? He keeps saying independent central banks.

[@phil.s2245]

Its interesting to see someone who is actually part of the problem.

[@erinsweet8147]

What is this dude smoking? We don’t have a debt problem, tax the rich, and the govt needs to balance the budget. This guy is dreaming!!

[@weelee4476]

He sounds more like a cheerleader than an economist. Maybe he should teach in Disneyland where there is unicorn and everything he likes to fantasize about.

[@_m_K_.]

😂 Pin this comment. The people running the show really believe the nonsense they say. This man is intellectually dishonest to talk about crap hitting the fan 20 or 30 years from now, when rate of debt increase shows in 10 years if not less, it will hit the fan. The only thing relevant he said was to cite Argentina instead of the US defaulting on loans. He knows what the deal is, he just got all the talking points down.

[@bobsondugnutt7526]

It's important to hear the best possible dissenting arguments thank you for this one

[@KoDeMondo]

You don't need an Oxford degree to understand that if you mindlessly give away money for years, encouraging people to go into debt, and then suddenly do the exact opposite, the country will go into disarray. But strange to say according Barry "there is nothing to see here, all is under control" 🤣🤣🤣

[@ALANGREENSPAN420]

🚨BANK🚨RUN🚨SEASON🚨

[@adamson760]

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” ― Henry Ford

[@mstgelais]

What kind of guest do you have David. One from the WEF?

[@camronrubin8599]

If were going up 1 trillion every hundred days then were going to hit a 200% debt to gdp around 2030. Its math.

[@lewispaine4589]

He thinks changing the tax code will fix the US debt/deficit problem,give yer head a shake man.

[@bobsondugnutt7526]

it's an austerity measure, not popular but works

[@ace9840]

It's not going bankrupt it is bankrupt and has been for years.

[@MarkhallPete]

I’m not an economist but I could never understand when folks say from 2000 to 2008 there was no inflation when the price of everything in many cases doubled over that time period. Or perhaps inflation has a different definition.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Nearly continuously there has been inflation since 1913, in this modern economy.

[@JBurns253]

It’s like our media constantly tries to reframe history in a light it actually wasn’t . I wonder why

[@mfclevz8765]

He is just feeding people BS. He claims no inflation 2008 to 2020. Price of a truck doubled in that time. Even if it was only 2% inflation a year target, at a minimum everything is 25% more expensive even at their target. He thinks we are fools.

[@dragonflydreamer7658]

This ding dong is the reason THREADS WILL HAPPEN

[@BlainsTube]

"Is The U.S. Going Bankrupt?" The question reminds me of "The Sixth Sense", when Bruce Willis' character realizes he's actually dead. 😜

[@lopat4826]

he are crazy with that high tax ,

[@kakusei3672]

Talk about how he feels about newsom

[@stiffdrinkfinance1981]

I have a brilliant tax revenue idea for uncle sam: 100% tax on federal reserve for every currency unit it creates

[@Carlos-im3hn]

result would-be immediate reset and end game in 1-day.

[@olaf_the_librarian]

Hi David, scrolling through the other comments, I just wanted to add a voice in support of your choice in guests! Even though your typical audience would obviously mostly disagree (myself included), it's important to learn about the"other side", and I still found it somewhat educational, as you - as usual - made some good questions.

[@BillySeiling]

The biggest government shill you’ve had on your show so far David.

[@nicholasmendezdelvalle8770]

How on earth can the government owe something to itself? That sounds ridiculous on its face. Also, between a society where the public is laden with debt and another one where the average person owns 10oz of gold as savings with little to no debt I would say the latter would be more prosperous

[@alvincollins1056]

Ok but our country is seeking record low bond buying right now.. all central banks are buying record amounts of gold this has been going on for 5 years now.. this guy is way to optimistic.. but he did say if other countries don't buy our debt/bonds we see huge hyper inflation..... wake up people its happening in front of our eyes it always starts out small then all at once... protect yourself invest in physical commodities.

[@harryholiday5356]

The great Dick Cheney said that deficits really don't matter, and he is correct. Not a problem.

[@user-lr5po4pl6s]

For us- high taxes determine where we choose to live and where we will eventually retire. High taxes are a huge turn-off for both individuals and businesses.

[@_-Wade-_]

Failing 5th grade math and assuming politicians are rational...

[@maddurak]

Never seen an economist who loved and trusted his government this much…

[@tttuu3309]

Imagine taking loan for wars that most Americans didn’t approve but you want them to participate in paying this is crazy

[@markzinn2274]

After the first minute, I already know this guy’s judgement is so clouded that I can go to another video.

[@stevenmix3723]

So his good news is that the cliff we are accelerating toward is still another quarter mile away. Plenty of time to stop speeding up.

[@petermanuel5043]

It's interesting to hear how some people think. Even if you don't agree with it it's important to learn why and have a counter.

[@christianjohnson3205]

This is about what I would expect from UC Berkeley at this point.

[@BA-lt2tx]

Inflation has been over the Fed's target inflation rate for over 3 years. So much for its "independence" and "bringing inflation under control".

[@TheGoreforce]

this guy has every reason to steal from someone else, but doesn't think about himself.

[@YaseminEmine]

Thanks for the update, what are your thoughts on AWMKPX?

[@charlesg7937]

Higher taxes never help; here is proof that you can be smart and ignorant at the same time.

[@wangjim5839]

Yellen, as the State Treasury, allowed the debt situation to grow out of control is very irresponsible! But instead, she travelled the world to badmouth China about overcapacity and selling too cheaply when inflation at home is getting worse!

[@whdndrn]

What does difficulty servicing the interest mean for USA? What level.

[@grantharding8868]

The cooperation Yellen is seeking has failed miserably

[@dazedhavoc]

It makes sense that we are in such a bad state of affairs monetary policy. When people say “how is the FED so stupid? Doesn’t the FED have 400 Ph.D.s?” Well, if they are trained by people like this guy, now I get it.

[@scotthanson4449]

Excellent interview. You were well prepared and asked great questions.

[@TM-173]

This guy works for them- hanging out with Ol Yeller and thinking that the rich will put up with a massive tax and stick around. The solution is simple: stop spending, close the border.

[@imjustalilbit]

We live in an economy that is based on unlimited growth. We've peaked traditional methods of growth, which is why we are moving towards manufactured crisis, (wars), and increasing oil consumption through EV's and carbon reduction, (green deal). We are entering a disaster driven economy in order to continue economic growth. Thats not good, but thats the direction the corporations have chosen to steer the government.

[@rickmantwill8356]

Like to see this guy debate, Professor Hanke Would’ve liked to see you ask him, if we can get by without a federal reserve

[@anthonykarakas6391]

Prof Eichengreen epitomizes perfectly why academians should not be in charge of anything regarding public and fiscal policy.

[@paulrobertson6262]

Guys like this are why we're in the shape we are. How he is so oblivious boggles the mind

[@SingtoYouTube]

Am basically staying watching to see what is the next question by David. The answer really doesn’t matter anymore

[@Four_Eyes]

Devil in sheep's clothing.

[@ALANGREENSPAN420]

🚨GREENSPAN = SATOSHI🚨

[@ZaferMuhlis]

Not the best year but celebrating AWMKPX now! What a time to be alive guys, seriously

[@albertlau11235]

15:55 He just saw the chart shown near the beginning, showing the increasing debt/GDP ratio over the years. How can he reference the debt-to-GDP ratio to say that the government is 'doing a pretty good job growing that denominator......' ???

[@RonaldWarman-gr9kk]

Most intelligent millionaires know how to avoid taxes or funnel offshore, so this will not impact anything.

[@Will_0001]

It would send even more money offshore and freeze up US markets.

[@MustafaCemile]

Can anyone explain AWMKPX? I am curious and wanna know

[@ALANGREENSPAN420]

🚨SILENT🚨DEPRESSION🚨

[@bruceposch1449]

1969 phoned...they said to send Barry back. They apologized if he did any damage.

[@AysegulOzlem-ms8bk]

Riding the AWMKPX train feels so good, they really know how to make promises count and bring them to reality

[@edenrr390]

Hola David, Thanks for posting. Have you read Henry Kissinger's book "On China?" Cheers, SV Good Karma as Grins.

[@vyzion]

I enjoyed this chat. Thanks to both!

[@ibrahimOmer-hs9lb]

When it comes to scalability and future-proof concepts nothing is as outstanding as the AWMKPX project, these guys know the drill

[@juancarlosmeneses3774]

Excellent interview! Really enjoy your content....

[@Benji_The_Ghoul]

Government spending did cause inflation between 2008 and 2020, it was in the housing market and stock market.