Then VS Now: Why 20 Year Predictions Were So Wrong?

[@TheVeganTravelShow]

Hey mate next time put a light in front of you, it’ll even the colour & help you stand out even more. (The contrast between you and the background is distracting…) Also, great info 🤙🏽

[@BlackLabelExpat]

Roman citizen 450 AD: "Rome is the best place in the world. Where else are you going to go?"

[@YellowWhiteEye]

You have the right mindset about this, but most people cannot acquire the intellectual/economic/emotional capability to leave their country. In some countries most people do not even leave their town. Astoundingly (or maybe not), this effect is larger in the more developed countries of "the Western World" than in the "3rd World". Anyway, this is my 10year-prediction of what regions will develop most: 1. Middle East /Arab World, 2. Central Asia (former Soviet republics), 3. ASEAN, 4. Argentina (if Milei can keep his stance), 5. India, 6. East Europe, 7. Africa. Most declining regions: 1. West Europe (incl. UK+Nordics+CH), 2. USA/Canada, 3. Oceania, 4. Japan, 5. China.

[@ZelenoJabko]

Africa as a whole will get worse, due to increasing importance of IQ on everyday life. So I would not be making any large bets on it.

[@fritzmetzger22]

Great. Than invest your money in soviet republics and short the US market, and let's revisit this comment in 10 years when you've lost all your money.

[@MrCinemuso]

Big impact in coming years will be population and whether countries have a natural birthrate to sustain a future economy. In the last 20 years the Wests pop growth has been largely propped up by immigration. That will change as cost of living (ecen relative to high local wages), makes these countries less attractive to immigrate to, as Michael alluded.

[@tw9419]

It's very difficulty to tell which countries will be significantly better in 10 years. Perhaps those ones that are at the rock bottom right now, and have nowhere to go but up. I won't write which ones may those be in order to avoid insulting anyone. But unfortunately all the current developed countries seem to be on a downward trajectory. Almost as if you lose the interest in improving and growing once you reached a certain stage. And then you start stagnation and finally decline. Similarly to how many people lose interest in growing once they reached a certain point of wealth in their lives. It's always those who have nothing who are fighting and biting to get more and be better. Interesting phenomenon indeed

[@CreepyTrendMan]

More like an agenda ....

[@tw9419]

@@CreepyTrendManBut agenda from whom? The developed countries are the only ones in the position of power to push any kind of agenda. The developing ones don’t have such a power. Why would first world countries want to shoot themselves in the foot? They would benefit from the progress as they always did historically

[@tinglestingles]

Is Malaysia likely to be better in ten years - on balance I'd say yes. UK & Portugal - no, the decline will continue.

[@ZelenoJabko]

All Asian countries, few latin countries, and Switzerland. That's pretty much it.

[@tinglestingles]

I'm thinking particularly of Sarawak state - investments in hydrogen, hydro power, renewables, oil & gas, high-tech manufacturing, electronics, and automotive components production in the coming decade - making it an attractive destination for foreign investments across multiple industries. With the uptrend in transport infrastructure - Pan Borneo Highway and Kuching Autonomous Rail Transit (ART) system, port infrastructure upgrades in Kuching and Bintulu - LNG & other petroleum products. Seems very upbeat... compared to the situation in Lisbon, 'new airport' on the drawing board for over 50 years.

[@AlexC_99]

Hey Michael, I'm really interested in Bahrain as a place to relocate to. Could you please make a video on Bahrain? Thank you.

[@patienceisalpha]

Mexico in 10 years, coupled with the nearshoring and the citizenship path

[@RafaelAlx79]

I believe it's worth considering we might be living in a slowly deglobalizing world. How that would affect the trajectory of the nations for the coming 20 years? And how it would affect citizenships and wealth relocation? Thanks again for such great content.

[@nnuae]

El Salvador seems to be an obvious favourite, I'd personally add Kazakhstan to the mix. Malaysia is somewhat close to peaking IMO, but unlike the majority of developed countries, I expect it to continue getting better, even if it's at a slower pace. Perhaps it will drag other SEA countries up with it. While I'm not interested in Indonesia, I expect economic growth there, too. Unfortunately, even for those pesky EU countries such as Hungary and Poland, I don't foresee a bright future, I'm hoping I'm wrong, though...

[@stevemyers2092]

Canada: Our gov't has put us in a bad place re immigration and financial spending trying to keep with the wishes of the "Wizards behind the curtain" ....not keeping up with housing and the influx of immigrants - causing turmoil where none should exist. P Poilievre, our next PM, will have his hands full trying to turn back/undo some of the larger mistakes that have been made. So Canada is not going to fare well for a while - better off in SE Asia - Malaysia/Philippines and/or Thailand for your "dollar value". OR if you are an outdoors person - you can get by fine in Northern Canada if you cut your own trees/split your own wood for heat and cooking, fish and hunt and don't mind living off the land (part time at least)

[@300rivers4]

I've had this conversation with many of my friends here in the u.s. Many of them still believe that the u.s. is the "best country on earth". I believe that places like Mexico and Central America are due for an uptick. Not that they're in the dumps, but rather they still have room to grow. Great topic.

[@tw9419]

I think those who believe that the US is the best place in the world are the people who haven’t seen much of the world, let alone lived elsewhere

[@mowensmd]

Unbearable heat and crop loss within 10 to 20 years I'm afraid. The closer to the Equator the more this is happening. The worse is in overpopulated areas of Asia.

[@ignoranceisachoice6045]

Best healthcare in the world is actually taking care of yourself.

[@OffshoreCitizen]

Agreed!

[@yusufg9674]

El Salvador from what I hear from the news is on its way to become dramatically better in the coming 10 years. Out of EU countries Hungary seems to be quite a good bet regardless of whether they continue staying inside the EU. It’s unique in a way that it seem to be immune to EU BS and not shying away from Chinese, Arab or Russian investments. I think life there will get quite a lot better which might in turn attract people and capital from other EU countries, turning it into a local powerhouse.

[@sid06]

I'd love to see Argentina rise and maintain its course, but it may be out of character for that general region. Otherwise, the USA still looks like it is on an uptrend somehow.

[@BobDoe_69]

I agree with the concept/idea generally speaking, however China specifically will not triumph for a variety of reasons. The south east asian countries and Potentially India will do very well is my bet,

[@OffshoreCitizen]

Would like to hear your reasoning on China

[@BobDoe_69]

@@OffshoreCitizen dont want to get political but I have to, the way the reds operate...when their current supreme leader rose to power he started making aggressive moves, towards the west and neighbouring countries. Now both blocs (the west and south east Asians) have started to take serious measures to counteract China sometimes jointly sometimes seperatley. Today you have sanctions, strategic restrictions, reduced access to chips and tech moreover state level espionage and streamlined tech stealing from the reds side and the situation will only escalate further. Japan didn't have this dynamic when they rose to prominence. India is a democratic state and is thus naturally more closely aligned to the west than the reds

[@NEVERCOME]

What do you think about Viet Nam? I'm a Service / Experience designer, and I feel like there will be nice opportunities over there at some point?

[@GrahamWinship]

I think argentina is very likely to be much better in the future than it is today.

[@ignoranceisachoice6045]

Better: Azerbaijan Worse: Turkey

[@fritzmetzger22]

Most predictions of top economists, hedge fund managers, 99% of Ray Dalio's predictions didn't happen. It's better to be humble than to think that your predictions have any special merit. Nobody knows. And betting against the US had time and time again proven to be a losing bet.

[@jarnMod]

I was in Thailand and left, thinking it's gonna get worse. It's not. Practically the same. Vietnam is better. Indonesia is better. I also think Japan is better but I'm just a gaijin, so I can't say for locals.

[@martinsjogren4366]

Better: Vietnam, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mauritius, Liberia, Tanzania, Benin, Togo, Ivory Coast Worse: Taiwan (China will attack/blockade), but then it s hard to say, most countries dont get significantly worse unless communists take over or there is a war - and those things are hard to predict. Venezuela when Chavez took over was predictable, but not now, Venezuela can get better if things change.

[@jonnyboy9927]

Argentina will be better in 10 years. Some Asian countries. El Salvador, maybe Brazil will be better. The US, Canada, China, and Europe will be worse in 10 years from today. Africa is a mixed bag. South Africa will continue to get worse. The western African countries may get better. Eastern Africa as well.

[@ZelenoJabko]

China will be much better, what are you talking about? Africa as a whole will get worse, due to increasing importance of IQ on everyday life.

[@AbdulRahim-cu7y]

Hi! Do you edit videos yourself or have you hired someone? I’m an editor and would love to discuss, if you’re interested

[@OffshoreCitizen]

Feel free to send us a message

[@AbdulRahim-cu7y]

I just sent you an email

[@cyber-yo9378]

Hi Michael, Booked a slot to talk with you yesterday, but the Clarity system doesn’t work well for me. Hoping to talk this week.

[@OffshoreCitizen]

Please use Calendly: calendly.com/michael-rosmer

[@p.c.h.6721]

For sure Europe is not going to be better, and I'm about to leave Spain for good (I've had enough of the Socialist government).

[@kpo1233]

Where are you going?

[@mowensmd]

Love our insights. We have traveled and lived in many countries, and view the question you ask through the lens of global upheaval due to climate change and the geopolitics of the end of oil. Reading the great migration research, the speed and surprising severity of change I'm really quite unlikely to put the middle east anywhere on a 10 year better list! Asia as a whole, so densely overpopulated will face much more stress, and infectious outbreaks. I agree that China is eating the West lunch too. The EU will be overrun. Coastal cities globally inundated with disaster. How much have you studied and kept up in that regard?

[@mva6044]

(1) Almost certainly better = some parts of Latin America (Paraguay, Argentina, and Guyana (*!!!*), maybe Chile), much of SE Asia (2) Better from a low threshold, ie almost nowhere to go but up (central & east Africa, Venezuela & Cuba, Ukraine & Moldova (*!!!*), pending an almost inevitable regime change in Russia. Papua New Guinea, East timor & Bougainville. (3) about the same, but from a high threshold: Switzerland, Singapore, Northern Italy & Catalonia (if they separate), Lichtenstein and a few other "pockets" for wealthy escapees (Channel islands, certain Caribbean juristictions), maybe other select places around the world like Zanzibar, Azores, etc. (4) Same, as in still bad, maybe slightly trending up but still miserable for many reasons: Pakistan, Nepal, rural China, Iraq, Syria, lots of subsaharan Africa from around the Sahel down to Angola. (5) Same from a middle threshold, slightly trending up, but very dependent on circumstances regarding local region, internal politics/policies: central America, Brazil, central-eastern Europe, much of the Balkans -- I'd even lump Austria into that group, Turkey (6) Worse, from a high threshold, as in a continued slow decline, perhaps with periods of accelerated decline driven by dramatic "black swan" events, akin to COVID: USA/Canada, most of Southern, Western Europe & Scandinavia, with some very select exceptions, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. I give Australia-NZ a bigger chance of turning things around, similar, but less optimism for turning things around for middle east oil gulf states (7) Crapshoot: same w/ slow decline, but more likely extreme variance but with very real chance of a severe downside, maybe eventually coming up to be better on the flipside of that near "wipeout" downside event: China, Russia, Israel. Background: LOTs of travel, reading and lived experience: 50+ countries, 5 continents over 25+ years post-graduate adulthood, having lived in (depending on how you count) 4-6 countries. I put a (*!!!*) symbol around geographic areas with highest risk-reward & upside conviction.

[@brp361]

I know your entire business model depends on people "fleeing the west" so I take your opinions with a very large grain of salt. Are you aware how the average Malaysian, for example lives? You seem woefully out of touch with reality, talking from the perspective of a privileged white westerner who lives in poorer countries on his western income. Again, you are so out of touch.

[@nnuae]

He could make money relocating people to the USA, too, it's just not a particularly good idea. The average Malaysian can afford high quality healthcare, expats subsidise their fuel costs (which end up being lower than those in petrol exporting countries) and has the luxury of seeing their home area getting better year by year - something that a Western EU-born person has never seen in their entire lives. What is the purpose of this comment, apart from trying to insult? You think Malaysians live a worse life now than they did 30 years ago? You seem to be the one who is out of touch.

[@madhavvishnoi]

Bro all the schemes are intended for rich people only. A rich man would live way better in Malaysia than in USA / UK. And stop being racist to these white people, richness doesn’t mean that you are “White Westerner” lol. And if you are not rich then you shouldn’t be watching these videos, go work hard.

[@Gamba_with_Cigarette]

That's the focus of this channel. If you're interested in the struggles of the average Malaysian, perhaps avoid a channel centered on wealth management and tax optimization.

[@OffshoreCitizen]

My point is that this is also going to change very soon. As the world is becoming more global and opportunities become available to people outside of the west, we will notice a big increase in wealth in countries that have historically been poor. Soon enough you will see the standard of living increase in all these places, due to availability of global opportunities

[@tw9419]

So you believe that an average Malaysian lives worse nowadays than 20 years ago? I highly doubt that