Sven Carlin, PhD Talks Research, Stock Analysis & Value Investing

This video is available as a podcast at www.theplainbagel.com and on Apple Podcasts (search "The Plain Podcast")!
Today I sit down with Sven Carlin, PhD, KZbinr and independent researcher to talk stock analysis and research.
Check out Sven's channel: / investwithsvencarlinphd
If you'd like to support the channel, you can do so at Patreon.com/ThePlainBagel :)
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DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for the chat, I really enjoyed it!!!!

[@davidnk673]

Dr. Sven do you accept monthly payment for your platform or is just yearly payment subscription?

[@StartingwiththeAs]

just bought your book, I cant wait!

[@macrogenii]

"Enthusiasts", not genius. Bagel boi is an enthoosiest. F

[@garcia4062]

Muchas gracias Maestro! Muy bueno lo suyo ya busco su canal!

[@gustavsophie1186]

Thanks Sven ,hope someday I earn some money at the stock market 😅

[@markreale5218]

There are not that many good quality KZbinrs out there with a deep knowledge of investing. Sven is in my top 3. The amount of garbage out there is staggering. It takes effort to find the right information.

[@OkGoNowGo]

What are the other 2 in your top 3?

[@markreale5218]

@@OkGoNowGo Let me give you a list of good channels: Sven Carlin, Fastgraphs, Nathan Winklepleck, Plain Bagle and Ben Felix. To a lesser extent Phil Town.

[@schraderclemens6122]

@@markreale5218 Great list. Another really interesting one who is more about short term investing (1-2 years) is The Popular Investor. He also manages a couple millions on Etoro so all his positions and buys/sells are always free to look at.

[@aivaraspetrikas15]

@@OkGoNowGo Everything Money, Learn to invest

[@bananaboyTS]

@@markreale5218 in what context do you see sven and ben felix? i feel like they disagree on some fundamental princpiles, so how do you reconcile these differences for you own perspective?

[@davides3858]

Two of my favorite investors together talking about sound and rational topics, thank you for the value you give to the community. We need more knowledge and less marketing.

[@MrSupernova111]

I think you meant your two "favorite youtubers." Someday you'll realize you've been fed garbage most of your life and you took it as gospel.

[@khuo0219]

Looks like Sven kills time by playing Jenga with investment books. Appreciate the talk!

[@FinancialBeanstalk]

The least you could do is provide a free plain bagel to your guests for the information their giving out...

[@mangomaniac4194]

He does. Followers who had never heard of them follow. The gift that keeps giving.

[@meowchinchilla4009]

When two of my favorites financial KZbinrs unite for the goodness of knowledge. Thank you so much for making time out of your busy day to collaborate and give us great consent.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@sugarly69]

Richard and Sven, thank you for this! You are providing us with very good and practical investing education, on how it really works, and what the climate is about. Thank you so much, this is education you cannot digest and really know as a college kid, and you need some life experience to appreciate. Unfortunately we don’t have sufficient educational resources for this as we move on in life and where fiscal matters really matter!

[@pongop]

When two of the best finance and investing channels collide! I bookmarked this and I can't wait to watch it soon! Y'all are both great! UPDATE: I finally watched it! This is an excellent interview. I didn't expect an investing interview to be fun, but it was. It was nice to see a different side of both of you. Awesome stuff! Thank you for the value.

[@midimusicforever]

Another positive with investing internationally is that it's a bit of a hedge against the local economy. Maybe not so much for Americans, because if the US economy tanks, the world follows. But for someone like me, who live in a country with a 10M ish population, it fills that function.

[@jomancao2341]

Enjoyed the chat. I follow Sven and try to not miss any uploads in his channel. Now found Plain Bagel. Quality content in your channels worth the time spent. Thank you.

[@caneblu7625]

Solid and based content, finally! As a finance student you two are the only one I follow on youtube, I hope for more collaborations like this in the future.

[@investingbookfast2221]

Two great youtubers who don't provide fluff or click bait in the investing and finance space great team up.

[@labiancami]

2 of my fav financial youtubers! Great to see you together

[@therapturedmichelle]

Thank you for substantial advice and not wasting our time like other youtubers do!!!!!! wow. breath of fresh air.

[@adifferentname5538]

a little tip for the average retail guy like myself. When dude says that buying the stock is part of the process, it kinda reminded me of something that I've been doing that has been greatly aiding my returns. I use my paper trading account as a "layer", if you will, between my live account and the chaos of the market. I buy things for different reasons on paper trading and watch their behavior. A good example of this is if a company I like the fundamentals on, and bought on papertrading, dips in price, it might be a sign to buy it live.

[@planesaircraftandtrains9873]

Excellent. Really like listening to Sven and plain bagel.

[@chancerobinson5112]

“Volatility is not the same thing as risk.” - Warren Buffett

[@biLLisboredmlg]

Really loving these interviews! Please keep them coming! It's great as a finance student to listen to highly experienced and successful practitioners' take on financial topics and advise :)

[@CaseyBurnsInvesting]

Sven and Plain Bagel, two of the few channels that deserve to be taken seriously.

[@aivaraspetrikas15]

After watching these guys, you should realize TTCF is a bad choice :D

[@user-dm84]

Loving this series, another great video with some informative insights from Sven! Would love to see one with Ben Felix, colab pt 2!

[@j0nrages851]

I learned more from this episode than my two courses of finance in college. Thank you both!!

[@PT-yd9xn]

really enjoyed this podcast. straight to the point, no bullshit and party poopigng goes on. Thanks TPB and Sven!

[@7lllll]

awesome, two of my favorite investing youtubers!

[@A_page_a_day]

Thank you, I enjoyed the perspective.

[@nishu761]

Thank you, Richard. Your channel is criminally undersubscribed. Please keep bringing real financial experts on your channel. Loved your Patrick Boyle video as well. If you’re taking suggestions then perhaps make a follow up video with the same guest and pick out top questions which viewers have for them. Because, as viewers we have questions - for example - what does Sven mean when he said that “...a manager might say something in a conference call and it affects the other company...” ?

[@emrahtestere5372]

I watch sven's channel but imo the plain bagel and ben felix are really the best channels for personal finance to learn the basics. Stock picks from sven may not be in the best interest of beginner retail investor. I think that Felix's core message in his channel -sticking low cost internationally diversified funds- is the best advice for beginners.

[@landi2244]

My two favorite channels. Great interview.

[@stefanocresto5581]

I agree with other followers: much more value and knowledge than marketing. Said that, congratulations and thanks for your generous sharing

[@739jep]

Market beta explains far more than 5% of the price variance of stocks. It’s meant to be used when analysing differences in cross sections of stocks (although yea there are much better models now) , not individual stocks. The problem isn’t the model but how it’s being used here.

[@marcopetillo885]

Great video! Sven is a wonderful guy with a really generous heart and a smart brain! Big content here!

[@videohooligan]

About time you both had a chat! 😊👍🏼

[@JordyValentine]

Love Svens outlook, almost a KISS style of investing, definitely going to check out his channel 👍

[@Gabriel-gz7xq]

LOVE THIS NEW MOVE INTO PODCAST CONTENT

[@rinna88]

Wonderful! Thank you guys!

[@bananaboyTS]

always here for mister carlin :)

[@David.Marquez]

Two of the GOATs chatting is one of the best things to ever happen to the youtube investing community.

[@adriennethiery5432]

The creepiest thing about the “gamblers rush” of picking some stocks that substantially increase in price in a short time is even if you are consciously aware some luck was involved, you can’t help but think there’s something special about your ability to pick stocks and you get overconfident.

[@alfredo8431]

Ive watched this 3 times already. Good stuff 👍🏾

[@qudizzle1]

damn

[@alireza2295]

Thanks for the great video. Quite educative.

[@joegomez5807]

Sven is the best!!! Steve Forbes once Saïd that you make more money selling financial information than you do using it.

[@LuukP20]

Great video. Its nice to be able to listen to people who have a good understanding of the field. No hype or sensation. Just quality content. Much appreciated.

[@clarenceboddicker7708]

2 best financial youtubers collaborate. 😇 Glorious

[@sk.n.9302]

Really appreciated the honesty!

[@NruBseyE]

This is the first time in my life that I hear someone shares how exactly they look for investment opportunities, how to actually start doing research from A to Z. I do consider myself highly intelligent, unfortunately not highly educated also 😅 - I can figure out a lot of things and could do this by myself, but it can be really hard when you have absolutely no idea where to start. And if you just start, you have no idea are you doing anything good - so I'm grateful for this insight Sven. We are bombarded with all this complicated advanced metrics and informations about companies, and we don't know what to do with em. Not i atleast have a general proven idea what to do with all the information that I have and some guarantee that if I do things certain way It will have somewhat meaningful results.

[@robertbrechin8387]

Totally get owning a prospective company, even if only a few shares...great advice

[@skylerdelaurier713]

What a great video. Thanks for bringing him onto your channel, I've been a viewer of both of you for quite some time.

[@philopapos]

Thanks for very rich and interesting content!

[@JackDuffley]

Ahhh, yes, another large dose of wisdom

[@augustus331]

My two favourite financial youtubers collaborating? Is it christmas already?

[@Frankie_apollo1717]

My 2 favorite channel. 😍

[@evni6208]

Great chat!!!!!!!!!!!

[@joepistone8922]

Enjoyed that video

[@mmathulosejake]

Entertaining and informative

[@henriksontvedt6049]

You should make these into podcasts

[@darius6867]

35:10 great point! DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! Aquire your own genuine sources

[@dimdull]

Great interview.

[@Premium_Water]

Whats his Slavic name lol Sven Carlin is far from it especially if he's from the Balkans. Reminds me of that Russian guy on youtube with a Anglo Saxon name he does stocks as well. All in all good interview, good seeing some Eastern Europeans, there arent that many of 'em promoting content in English. His perspective is refreshing.

[@Miro_L]

Lev he is from Istra part of Croatia, his last name is Italian, if you do research about Istra you might understand a bit more.

[@Jod4light]

Amazing Sven!

[@vidhitnaik2386]

Fantastic interview! Loved listening to both interviews! Yours with Patrick and now with Sven! Thanks for the great content! Christmas has come early!

[@FBMaximUm]

Wow! Sven is here!

[@vincentdesapio]

If you have the time. It is easier to choose a group of mutual funds/ETFs. Few people have the time to do such exhaustive research to find individual stocks.

[@Heyomyfriend]

Great vid!! One tip for you is to get a microfone or ditch the earphones, they emmit some annoying sound

[@Mr_Shelby2]

Please attach time stamps

[@pageegap1]

everything money interview!!!

[@conradfrantsen5503]

Can someone tell me the names of the books on his left

[@aron5377]

I'm loving this. Excellent interview!

[@pranshuanand4560]

Really likign these interviews. Could you maybe get someone from India next. Pretty please!

[@TeChWarZ]

Great video! thanks!

[@Roarpian]

High quality interview!

[@anderson6379]

We miss U Sven. Hope U R getting plenty of rest. Great to see U. Made my day. Great seeing the best educators on the platform collaborating more and more. This is very pleasing

[@akudikechinedu8393]

Love from Nigeria

[@NoneNone-mp7nb]

Best finance on KZbin

[@akaman85]

Good conversation as always. I disagree with a lot of what Sven says here re: fundamental analysis as I think much of his philosophy is dated, but different strokes for different folks. Can always respect guys who put in the work and do their due diligence.

[@dhirajmeenavilli5508]

What specifically with the idea of fundamental analysis do you disagree with. Like do you think things should be viewed more qualitatively or that there's a better method through models or like do you think it should be based more on like tailwinds?

[@akaman85]

@@dhirajmeenavilli5508 In short, I think quantitative analysis is useful but to a point. A lot of metrics and traditional measures have broken down in recent years given the increased breadth of market participants knowledge base, and velocity of knowledge transfer and analysis. These hidden gems in terms of value plays, are often false flags. Yes fundamental analysis does provide for the ability to pick strong companies, but it no longer is as strong of an indicator on future price performance. He feels the US market is overvalued. Well, sticking with that thought would have cost investors a ton of money. Some assets are expensive because they should be expensive, others are cheap because they do not have enough market interest to provide for meaningful relative go-forward price movement. Strong companies do not always make for strong stocks.

[@dhirajmeenavilli5508]

@@akaman85 Yea I can definitely see what you mean, but Sven actually has a few American positions I believe so to say a market is overvalued is fine, it doesn't necessarily mean you're out of it right. And to the point of quantative analysis I certainly agree that it is of limited use, but I think fundamental analysis is quantative i.e balance sheet, ROE, cash flow and that but also qualitative i.e moats, management, and like company position and strategy. So yea while I agree with you that fundamental analysis as just quantative analysis built on ratios and statistically cheap stocks like Graham's is likely not working right now I believe fundamental analysis is actually more than that is that makes sense.

[@akaman85]

@@dhirajmeenavilli5508 Totally agree, and very well put. I place importance on fundamental analysis, but the weighting I place on it when picking stocks really differs depending on the sector and outcome I'm looking for. I suppose the one point of disagreement I have with many people identifying themselves as value investors, is the statement that any given market, or security is overvalued. The market determines the value on any given asset, and the value is what the market says it is. And I think that's tough for a lot of oldschool value investors these days to come to terms with; namely that what determines "value" is no longer what it once was. Nowadays, concepts like transformational idea's, risk taking management teams, or ESG factors, can play greater importance than Cash Flow and Bottom Line performance. Particularly as Capital is so abundant, and market participation is much more diverse now than ever.

[@user-wb6gh5tg6w]

Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.

[@om5335]

Great format pls do more of this

[@dobbyis_free]

Wondering if the episode is up on Apple podcast yet?

[@imloadedbaby2979]

At around the 27th mark of this vid, I remembered Charlie Munger saying that you always invert.

[@yostchen8628]

informative interviews! really good at different aspects. 好影片!

[@tommynaclerio]

Great interview! Wow.

[@sriram181]

Can someone please list me the books Mr.Sven has kept on his right side , all of the titles are only partially visible 😂

[@linusjacobsson2419]

I get ANOTHER sven video?! Cheers guys

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))))

[@darshanjain8458]

Thanks Guys ⭐⭐

[@andrewmeyer1224]

The amount of times I've tried to explain the greater fool theory to people lately is incalculable... From Doge, to the Doge Killer, to the next Doge killer, to the next next next doge killer.... Refreshing to hear it mentioned here.

[@felixfrost1564]

I think value investing is subjective... unless you have a method to calculate subjectiveness

[@briankelly1240]

Great conversation, would love to hear what brokerage is recommended for the frontier investments.

[@framedaglia5709]

That's the best crossover ever created

[@cirentXD]

Why should 95% of people not be investing? Who cares if they know what they're doing as long as they are not taking substantial loses. It seems that people have been doing better than suffering due to the recent wave in investing, but I may be biased because of who I am around.

[@sergiu5152]

You would be surprised how dumb the average person is. Especially when it comes to money, spending and investing. Those should index and forget. The rest knows they are not part of the first category.

[@umangprakumar1730]

Bring someone from India too. Like CA Rachana ranada or yogi investments.

[@robertotomas]

I really appreciated this interview. I have a doubt about long term investing being quite as long as expressed- a summation was offered essentially “we can look at investing as something where we’re expecting payout in 8yrs”. Here is my problem with that: different businesses grow at different rates, and there were periodic paradigm shifts in all businesses which tend to happen more frequently in the ones that grow faster. Not only is eight years a long time for a tech stock, I think it is a long time for virtually any stock. Companies have outlooks that extend out that far and often times in industries for example in car manufacturing physical exterior designs are done about 12 years on average before the car is released. But investing on the basis of that guidance is entirely speculation has very little detail is valid that far out: it is the exception not the rule. A more realistic timeframe for long-term investing in lower or slower growth stocks is probably four years or three years even. For tech stocks I think you’re really gambling to look > three years into the future.

[@zvxcvxcz]

I think of it a bit differently. You're not buying on the expectation of any particular special event, but on the expectation of long term gains when you have good management of a solid company despite any temporary ups and downs from external factors (e.g. COVID). And yes, that long time frame may be necessary, a good example right now would be Unilever. The price hasn't moved much in five years, but they have profits and pay dividends and have done so for many many years now. There are certainly some out there anticipating that they can make some changes to increase profits and hence likely also the stock price in the near future. I don't think buying Unilever is speculation on the same order that buying Tesla would be. There's always some amount of speculation when picking individual stocks.

[@theWebWizrd]

The problem with the shorter timeframes is that the stock price might just not move despite the fundamentals of the business improving dramatically. Even at 3-4 years time horizon the stock might just stay put and get cheaper compared to valuation. Coca Cola and Microsoft have had over a decade where their stock price had a net negative return despite growing earnings steadily, just due to their pricing changing. A value investor like Sven would say that if you simply don't know where the business will be more than three years in the future you simply can't invest in it and move on to another stock. If you believe that it is unknowable where the business will be, you shouldn't invest in any stock, because then it can't possibly be low risk. Company fundamentals are sometimes somewhat knowable (should a value investor believe), people's psychology isn't.

[@kennyyuwoo]

"If I invest in a property I want my money back in 8 years... if it take longer than 8 years then I am an idiot" Sven's Croatian friend Best investing quote ever! :)

[@MrAndyBuys]

What does that actually look like for an investment property or a stock?

[@davieb8216]

From 38:00 onwards it sounded like you were talking about New Money. Anyways, thanks for the video.

[@FurrKnight]

I love both these channels, what an amazing collab!!!!

[@madtkboy2049]

Peddling an investing subscription service, telling people they should pick 10 good stocks to retire on instead of indexing, and then saying indexing is going to crash and burn but selling you on the idea that he has the knowledge to get you out of that bind on KZbin?... I think it's time to get Sven on an interview with Coffeezilla.

[@NoneNone-mp7nb]

Sick just amazing

[@deadlyshizzno]

I wish I could like this video twice

[@juniorvilcapoma6796]

Thanks for the interviews. You are my favourite half donut!

[@intellectualpupil]

Investing and losing money sucks, but never investing your money is far riskier.

[@mvgsv168]

Hi From brazil ✌✌✌✌

[@Witnessmoo]

Big fan of Sven! Huge fan in fact. . . I own 0 stocks that he owns though. But his methodology is solid. And his temperament and wisdom is extremely admirable.

[@carlolepelaars]

This was awesome, thank you! Sven looks like the real deal (Mackay, Poor Charlie's Almanack, Mandelbrot, Einhorn, Taleb, no tie, etc.)! :D