Predicting Every CFP Quarterfinal Game | College Football Playoff Preview

[@80zBaby]

This podcast is criminally underrated. Happy Holidays, guys!

[@solidverbal]

Thanks, appreciate you watching and commenting. Tell your friends!

[@quinton9514]

Maybe bc they have wrong info. Dude said Arizona state has a good d line. 😒

[@solidverbal]

Statistically, the DL grades out pretty well via opponent adjusted numbers. The issue, which we discussed, is the pass rush, which is definitely lacking. Thanks for watching and commenting.

[@natlovell122]

Love that these come out early so that my 4 am wake up is a little more tolerable here on the west coast.

[@davidmtatta]

Thanks for all the great coverage all year. We Are!

[@solidverbal]

Thanks for watching!

[@gregoryperez9386]

I must say, as a Notre Dame fan stationed in Japan, I appreciate the time-slot of this game

[@solidverbal]

There are always unexpected time zone winners!

[@FrankRizzo7080]

GO Irish - thank you for your service🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸. ☘️☘️

[@AdmissionsGCAS]

Great show. Cheers

[@solidverbal]

Much appreciated, stay solid!

[@Qeduhh365]

Would love to see ND win as a Buckeye fan

[@michaelhinojosa13]

Ty has become a legitimately excellent analyst.

[@solidverbal]

Thanks, appreciate that! It’s much easier when we don’t have 65 games a week pulling us in a thousand directions!

[@michaelhinojosa13]

@@solidverbal i've noticed it all season!

[@tedcarreras6361]

GREAT podcast! The 1975 Arizona State Sun Devils were 12-0, beat Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl and finished #2 behind Oklahoma.

[@BeatUofA]

Can't argue with anything y'all said about my Sun Devils but I still have hope! Go Devils!

[@John-zz6fz]

You nailed it Dan... my feelings for the SEC are 100% shaped by ESPN's obvious commercial interests. I get it that this is sports journalism but its STILL JOURNALISM!

[@RobertD-jg3fc]

How does osu handle Dillon Gabriel? The same way the dod against Marioto.

[@arockalypsgaming]

One difference between that game years ago and this game. Oregon's not down their top 3 receivers. Ohio St is banged up Oregon is healthy.

[@8d4o0c4]

I thought I might be the only Oregon alum with a Maine Central Railroad ballcap... but Dan proved me wrong. Go Ducks!!!

[@solidverbal]

BOOM

[@bigplayray1625]

OhioSt tried a shootout with Oregon and tried to keep the ball away from Michigan's explosive and potent offense. Chess moves.😅

[@embee9936]

Sorry, what bowl game are you in again?

[@bigplayray1625]

@embee9936 A better bowl than OSU lost last year.

[@chads9431]

@@bigplayray1625you think the Reliaquest Bowl is better than the Cotton Bowl.

[@bigplayray1625]

@chads9431 Doesn't matter when you lose. I bet close to as many if not more people watch Michigan vs. Bama in the Reliaquest Bowl as OSU vs. Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. More people watch The Game than both of those anyway.

[@andrewsnow2284]

@@embee9936who cares you lost to Michigan. Congrats on making an expanded playoffs. Sure Michigan isn’t there this year but it’s nice to know at our worst we still are better than you at your best now

[@uppsie]

as an Oregon fan class of 2012 I would very much like to see specifically only the latter reaction to that game and nothing else please and thank you.

[@KingofBaylovia]

Want to see ASU or Boise to shock the world! Both would be awesome

[@solidverbal]

That’d be something! Thanks for watching and commenting, enjoy the games!

[@trashtroll666]

Ohio State's run game is all cart and no horse (two great backs, bad O line)

[@antoniomckinley3114]

Prepare for the best two backs 195 yards a piece game and blowout you’ll ever see

[@trashtroll666]

@ here's hoping!

[@kenbecker8410]

ND 28-21

[@campbellcampbell9059]

Feel like you missed News Flash Item that is of particular relevance for the college bowl season. During the very entertaining Bowl Predictions show you opined about how to keep bowl games relevant and players involved. Coach Prime, Rick George record insurance policy seems like a relevant topic to discuss a new solution to curb opt outs. Two of the top picks in this years NFL Draft will be balling and subsequently for college football fans, players, media rights owner, bowl sponsors and LLoyd’s of London (or whoever is writing these policies) a win win solution.

[@solidverbal]

Would've felt out of place to break into this specific CFP Quarterfinal preview ep with the news of two Colorado guys not sitting out (though maybe not for you as a CU fan, lol!) We'll definitely talk more about it when we do bowl recaps -- glad to see those guys are playing. Stay solid and appreciate you watching as always!

[@campbellcampbell9059]

@ what… and miss out on you guys mimicking the telegraph with a breaking update? Feel this is less about Colorado and more so how to keep Bowl games relevant. Possibly the emergence of whole new series of Bowl sponsors… I believe insurance companies already are the largest advertisers. That said, good luck for both of you with your rooting interest playoff games. Believe Penn State had one of the better D’s against the run this season… suspect Jeanty gonna be tested. Honestly, he’s not even the best back in college football (doesn’t catch passes out of backfield, average pass protection). He totes the ball so many more times a game than every other back (which is impressive in its own right) to put up his numbers. but I’d rather have Skattebo, Giddens (KSU) or James (Ducks) in my backfield.

[@SurferRC]

You will never see sec/sec games in the quarters, and the acc/b12/g5 will always be in the same brackets to protect the sec and the bias narrative that is killing the sport

[@nickfleming4757]

It’s funny when people say it’s hard to beat a good twice when statistically over the last 20 years when two top ten teams have played twice in a year 66% of the time the same team wins twice.

[@solidverbal]

Fair point. Since this number is not 100%, would you conclude that it’s harder to win the second time around?

[@Duck_Disciple]

I guess Ty hasn’t heard of the ol 12 man on the field routine, that’s been used many times by many coaches over the years including in a super bowl. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@backhandbobbyfisch]

The 1.5 over/under on bad throws take is valid but you're applying it to the wrong QB. Leonard is not an interception throwing machine. NDs secondary is a take away machine, though. Stockton is the QB that should be very careful when making his reads.

[@flansquadgaming9286]

PSU 38 - Boise 17 Texas 24 - ASU - 10 Notre Dame 21 - Georgia 14 Oregon 31 - OSU 24

[@doubleoneal1804]

Boise wins bank on in 40 - 17

[@kenbecker8410]

Nice agreed! Go ND Go Oregon!

[@billnyedoesminecraftjoseph8379]

@@doubleoneal1804youre predicting BSU to win 40-17???

[@austinlawrence3071]

Texas fans are everywhere and travel like crazy - I don’t think that’s even going to be a factor for Texas and I doubt it’s much of a factor for Penn State

[@Labhran]

Ohio State will get pressure on Dillon Gabriel - book it. They completely changed their defensive scheme and play calling after that game as a direct result of not getting pressure on him.

[@DawgInDawsonville]

You know Riley Leonard better than I do. Is Riley Leonard a better passer than Haynes King and Jalen Milroe? Being 1 dimensional against Kirby Smart favors one team. You can feel free to share which team you believe fits that mold (you know Leonard better than i do)

[@scottcromwell2103]

Penn st 28 Boise state 27

[@kjwolfgramm]

Ty are you picking against Oregon because they beat PSU and you think Norte Dame can beat OSU but not Oregon? Jk good vid guys.

[@osikanii]

tOSU 48, Oregon 17.

[@solidverbal]

Shots fired! This would be a statement to say the least

[@osikanii]

@@solidverbal Absolutely! We will see on Wednesday.

[@solidverbal]

Hey, this prediction wasn't that far off!

[@NittanyRyan84]

You guys are crazy for thinking the Boise game will be close at all. Oregon wasn't the same team in week 2 and Oregon had a close game against Idaho too! Boise is in the minor leagues and Jeanty wouldn't have more than 1200 yards in the big ten.

[@solidverbal]

We’ll see. As a Penn Stater, I’d be happy to be wrong! Thanks for watching

[@doubleoneal1804]

😂clown 🤡 tell us you don’t know ball without telling us you don’t know ball that was Boise second week as well. What do you think Ashton would have done behind an all SEC all big 10 O line you’re a five star dummy. Casual fan 😂

[@arockalypsgaming]

Go ahead stack the box against them and force them to pass against you and Jeanty will still run for 200 on you. Oregon's defense was healthy against them and we still gave up nearly 200 yards to Jeanty.

[@justinbrosious6601]

@@arockalypsgamingBro. You gave up 300 to us. Chill

[@kenbecker8410]

The guy on the right said that ND lost to Stanford and maybe Cal??? The didn’t play Cal but beat Stanford 49-7! 😉

[@solidverbal]

Hey Ken - Thanks for watching and commenting. The Stanford comment was in reference to the 2022 game when ND lost to Stanford, obviously not this year!

[@jaymacpherson8167]

My late father played quarterback for an SEC team. Yet I am not an SEC fan per se because of a for-profit media company boosting their success for decades. HOWEVER, Notre Dame’s years of privileged status that has no basis other than they performed better than average, as have a number of other teams that have not been favorably treated like ND, nauseates me…leading me to weakly prefer Georgia in that game.

[@c.j.4620]

Georgia doesn't lose big games to less talented teams - especially those who are outmatched up front. If your D-Line doesn't have the bodies or athletes to compare with Georgia in a big game, You Will Lose. UGA by 17 or more. Take it to the bank.

[@christopherwoods891]

Yall never will give OSU credit. Keep in mind OSU lost by 1 point on the road, with time, a phantom lass interference, 2 turnovers, and an onside kick. Osu by 10

[@solidverbal]

“Not give them credit”… as in both of us picking them to beat Tennessee last week, singing their praises for how incredible the offense (and defense) looked and, now, one of us picking them to beat Oregon in the rematch? Appreciate you watching and sharing your thoughts and reasonable minds can certainly disagree, but what more are you looking for?

[@bryanlutz7950]

You ignoring the bad version of Oregon against Idaho? Like what are you talking about? Both teams have shown that they can play terrible. OSU will eat if Oregon's defense plays like they did against Penn State.

[@justinbrosious6601]

You’re nuts. No way does Boise get over 21

[@patricksullivan274]

Could any of the generally agreed up ok-ness of Notre Dame be attributed to the NIL era? What is the "join a conference" debate if not really, truly at the end of the day a conversation about name, image, or likeness? ND valued their brand name, image, etc more than the perceived gains of conference affiliation. And if we've all just agreed that the NIL era is here to stay, maybe this ok-ness is a downstream effect. Anywho

[@scottcromwell2103]

Ohio state 24 Oregon 23

[@vger2]

Postdictions would be more useful (and fun) and based on actual data for who should have won a game. Has anybody ever done that? e.g. what would have happened in close games if terrible 2024 NCAA refereeing had called holding and personal fouls the same way for both teams. Who would have won instead? Do that.

[@solidverbal]

While your examples use data points that are far too subjective, Bill Connelly does have a formula that uses objective data points and has postgame win expectancy, so based on your stats vs. your opponents, what % of the time should you expect to win, etc etc

[@guitarzan75]

Boise should have beat Oregon, PR-Td AND KO-Td. That's 1 in 10,000 odds. Oregon is very beatable.

[@solidverbal]

FWIW, that was now four months ago, a lot has happened since then, namely Oregon fully changing their iOL. Also, as unlikely as those plays are, returns merely start drives usually, Oregon would’ve just had opportunities to score offensive TDs in their place.

[@WidgeonDrake]

Go Ducks 🦆🌹🏆

[@ramspencer5492]

The only game that I would discuss putting money on is Penn State (vs Boise State...). Penn State is going to score a lot of points against this Boise State defense. Don't even try to pretend that Boise State nearly beat and Oregon team that was playing on all Sounders... They had four sacks! Oregon didn't have the offensive line together at all.... Dylan Gabriel wasn't in a rhythm yet..... That was a very different ducks team! Oregon also had those two freak fumbles in a row... Which also has a lot to do with the offensive line not being able to do squat, as well as Dylan Gabriel not being comfortable yet. Texas likely has the defense to stop Arizona State.... But maybe not. Clemson played them closer than the score would suggest... At least in the second half were they pretty much outplayed them. And that was at home. Arizona State has been playing much better football in my opinion than Clemson as of late. I'm not going to pick against Oregon but that game is too close to call.... Same with the Georgia Notre Dame game, in my opinion.

[@omnimoeish]

Dillon Gabriel completed 18 of 21 in that game against Boise State and Maddux Madsen only completed 17 of 40, by far his worst game of the season to date. The only reason Oregon won that game against Boise State is because Oregon returned a punt and kickoff return for touchdowns and then made a literal last second field goal. That being said, yes Oregon is considerably better now than when they played Boise State, their second game of the season. But I still lean Penn State because I saw what their offense can do when they're in a dome against Oregon and their defense is going to be much better than anything Boise State has played this year.

[@scottcromwell2103]

Nortre dame 31 Georgia 28

[@Rehcubnetierb]

Hy Dan, which coast are you on? Most people from your area go to Quintana Roo like Cancun. if you get a chance check out La isla de las Mujeres, best beach in Mexico. Also drop by my town of San Luis Potosí, I'll buy you dinner. I know you won't but you have the invite. GO DUCKS!

[@solidverbal]

Puerto Vallarta, but the invite is very much appreciated!

[@Rehcubnetierb]

@solidverbal That's a long ass haul from Chicago. Enjoy!

[@Gmsup788]

Come on ducks!!! 🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆#GoDucks #BustANut

[@jeremy97234]

I think chip is 1 and 4 or 5 against Oregon. Day is 0 for 2😂.

[@arockalypsgaming]

Combined they are 0-7

[@jeremy97234]

@arockalypsgaming for some reason I thought Chip beat us once as HC at UCLA. I obviously didn't Google it. But may the curse continue.

[@ScarletGray-o3j]

Oregon will NEVER win a National Championship

[@jeremy97234]

@ScarletGray-o3j troll 🧌 🤣...and Day will never beat UM.

[@BonzoDrummer]

38-24 Bucks.

[@avonchalksdale]

Hey Tye and Dan, fans of the good SEC teams don’t cheer for the other schools. That’s some loser shit

[@solidverbal]

Ok fair enough, thanks for watching and commenting!

[@scottcromwell2103]

Texas 28 Arizona st 24

[@danieldonahue9336]

Ohio state Tennessee is irrelevant. Oregon is a monster compared to Tennessee

[@arisgod2749]

Man I just don’t know how you guys think Boise State has a chance against PSU. Look at the strength of schedule for both teams. Boise State is next to last in tackles. I mean how are these safeties going to cover and then tackle Warren? PSU DL is 6th against the rush playing in the big10. Everywhere you look PSU has favorable mismatches against this team except at RB.

[@SkeeterHawkins]

Notre Dame...............................48 georgia........................................9

[@jflinn2010]

Obvious Homer. LOL.

[@jdtheguitartist]

I disagree with the ND pick and analysis for a few reasons, granted I’m well aware you guys aren’t able to deep dive into the 22 due to the sheer number of games you have to watch: 1) ND defense played well against Indiana because Indiana, respectfully, called one of the worst offenses I’ve ever seen. ND plays almost exclusively single high safety, and yet, Indiana call 0 man beaters for 3 qtr. 2) Ga will be able to run significantly better due to their 3 starting RBs coming back from nearly year long injuries. 3) ND hasn’t faced a single passing offense outside USC, which allows their defense to play very aggressive against the run. Ga will exploit that 4) the Ga offense passed down from Monken is more suited for Gunner, if he can call the right checks 5) lastly, Kirby is a significantly better coach than freeman. I’m more than glad to share stats on any of these

[@solidverbal]

Appreciate your thoughts, JD. Have spent a lot of time reviewing game tape and have a lot more to say that we couldn't fit into an hour long episode. Couple extra thoughts: 1) Agree on the Indiana offensive gameplan, which was a mess. I think ND would've shut them down either way, but Indiana's approach definitely did not help. I'd also add that the defensive strategy against ND's run was also interesting, though not ultimately the reason they lost. There were plenty of instances, for example, of Indiana defenders not making pre-snap adjustments to motion and getting sliced as a result. Perhaps that speaks more to preparedness and coaching than defensive gameplan. 2) UGA RB health is one thing, but I'm more focused on the DL play for ND. Rubio needs to up his game as a run stopper and be more productive as someone who will get more snaps than usual. He's definitely not a stiff and he's played meaningful snaps, he's just gonna need to do more of it now that Mills is done. I'm a little worried that the Cross/Hinish rotation (which we will see), is going to leave ND a bit undersized up the middle against a big UGA line. I'd add that UGA does a lot of the same things as ND in the run game, so ND is probably used to seeing a lot of the inside stuff that'll come at them, I just think UGA will be better at most in terms of execution given their talent. On the flip side, UGA will also be used to seeing ND's preferred style on the ground, which is part of why I think the Irish will need some other ideas (more outside zone, QB runs, etc). You can probably count on one hand the last time a team lined up and was able to successfully run right at UGA with inside zone. 3) We've mentioned this point many times over about the lack of good passing offenses on the ND schedule. That said, I don't think this is going to be an electric UGA passing offense with Gunner in there, though he obviously has a lot of talent and was heavily recruited by everyeone. There will definitely be play action looks down the field if ND has to load up for the run game. There's probably an open question about whether UGA WR's will catch the ball if it gets to them given their issues this season with drops. 4) Agreed. 5) No argument on that point. But this is *not* the *same* UGA team we've seen over the last 5 years or so. Very good UGA squad, but not bulletproof. So, absolutely the better coach, but UGA is gettable.

[@jdtheguitartist]

@ thanks for taking the time for the reply and details. I agree with all of it. Ga is certainly vulnerable this year, especially when QBs run. It was weird seeing them run 4-3 against GT when they typically play more mint. I honestly couldn’t figure out why at all they did that. Against bama Williams was still hurt, but GT was a head scratcher. While I know this is a very simplified prediction, but if Ga (much like ND as you stated) decides to actually show up and keep Leonard under 40-50 yards on the ground, I like GA’s chance. I really doubt Ga allows the running game to be very productive. Outside that long run, Indiana was able to. That long run, while earned, was also horrible on the LB and corner. Both had horrible leverage. I don’t think Ga will do that.

[@jdtheguitartist]

@ I do have a follow up question regarding ND. I admittedly didn’t watch much of them outside TAMU, USC, and Indiana. Do you think these newer pieces needing to be used along their front 7 will be able to stunt as much as their starters? Or, do you think theyll use more 1 or 2 gap?

[@solidverbal]

I don’t know, to be perfectly honest. Kinda curious about that as well. It’s so late in the season, my hunch is that we aren’t gonna see too much different. But who knows.

[@jdtheguitartist]

@@solidverbal one last comment since people brought up SEC/Ga hype. As a longtime Ga fan, I feel like newer Ga fans and the media are propping up Ga when it’s convenient, and vilifying Ga when it’s not. For example, there’s a lot of warranted hype for ND, but some of the rhetoric is “Ga/SEC is overrated”. But two things can’t be true at the same time: if ND beats Ga, many people will claim Ga was still elite to prop up ND, and SEC fans will say Ga was overrated. But if Ga wins, it’s because Ga was Elite or ND was overrated. Such extremes

[@chadmorlan7475]

NOTRE DAME beats Georgia just the same way they have beat everyone else ALL YEAR!!! Leonard will be 22-32 for 205 yards and 1-2 TD’s and Love will Rush for 1-2 Touchdowns and Price will get his yards and Leonard will throw for 1st downs on 3rd down just as he has done the last 6 weeks!! 30-17 IRISH… ND’s kicker is healed and made 2 FG’s last week!!! Gooo IRISH 🏈☘️

[@solidverbal]

Thanks for watching! Love your enthusiasm. The 2 FGs last week for Jeter were encouraging. He's just 3/8 since returning from injury at the start of November, so hopefully the CFP game was a sign that he's back to normal. Stay solid!

[@DreDawg007]

Can’t wait for Notre Dame to get exposed. You haven’t seen the freaks we have. Another year, another disappointing ending for the irish

[@mattobrien6053]

I agree. NDs offense will do enough. NDs defense will dominate a green backup QB and team who already struggles throwing the ball.

[@mattobrien6053]

​@@DreDawg007 Brian Kelly isn't here

[@DawgInDawsonville]

​@mattobrien6053 The backup QB struggles to the throw the ball? He broke Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence's Georgia high school records for passing TDs. His "knock" isn't arm strength or accuracy. The knock on Gunner Stockton is his throwing motion and time to release.

[@salvatorezagra864]

Of course it gives you pause...TX is known for losing big games...CHOKERS

[@ZachSparks614]

Lost all credibility with the “non existent OPI” call against Smith. That was absolute horse shit and anyone with eyes can see that.

[@YowzaBowzaWowza]

Ok fanboy.

[@spiffymcgee8709]

Let’s get real. Georgia 42 ND 17 and it won’t ever be close.

[@ScarletGray-o3j]

Georgia can’t score 42 on a legit defense.

[@mattobrien6053]

Based on nothing. Oh, I forgot, Stockton has really good high school stats! Go Irish

[@MichaelTorrance-p8c]

OSU beating an overrated TN at home is NOTHING close to playing Oregon in the RB! Of the refs had given The Ducks the INT they got at the start of the game instead of hosting them and TD that game wouldn’t have been that close! This one will be for a half, but Oregon will pull away and leave NO doubt who the best team in cfb is….42-28 Ducks!

[@floorfan7987]

Penn St is going to beat Boise by 3 TDs

[@ScarletGray-o3j]

Fuck no