What I find very interesting is that it doesn't seem like any 'mainstream' finance people ever talk about this or seem to have any understanding that this potential exists...
@israc2001 Жыл бұрын
Thought you were only a singer.
@howtomanagetech Жыл бұрын
Because the revenue has been small, and lumped together with solar rooves, it has also been marginally profitable/unprofitable. Its going to stay a small part of their business for a while, compared to vehicles, but the trend is emerging rapidly.
@AaronMcFarland Жыл бұрын
They aren't, and they aren't pricing this part of the business into their price targets either.
@matthewmarszowski8493 Жыл бұрын
a fish cant see the water in front of its body it just follows the current
@georgespix7125 Жыл бұрын
Ages ago, I remember a financial analyst commenting that he believed the market would come to understand that Tesla was an energy company competing with producers like Duke Energy. So he did his financial and Market analysis from that viewpoint. I wish I remembered his name or firm. But at the time it was the first time I'd heard it expressed that way and I said to myself oh my. Because I never could figure out how to deal with every windmill requiring a GE peaker Which was why GE was a heavy investor in windmills. They got every penny back. So it was time to double down on GE and their turbine powered gas generators. Known as Peakers. Made a lot of sense then and this is what Mr. M is going to displace, to his and all of our benefit. Squawks the macaw.
@jjamespacbell Жыл бұрын
Brilliant and very complete understanding of the MegaPack potential. I would like to propose that the reason the backlog of the MegaPacks is only 2 years is that as an Engineer I would not like to invest my time in a project where the main component is over 2 years away. When I see increased capacity increasing I see projects that can have an ROI of 2 to 3 years and have them running in 3 to 4 years now I'm excited. First, the low-hanging fruit, replacing Peaker plants with battery systems that respond to demand instantly, doesn't require having to explain to the EPA how many tons of carbon I am burning and when will I install carbon capturing capability. That's 1,000 US Peaker plants with an average of 100 batteries plant. How about replacing backup generators in hospitals, how about solar and wind farms that would like to save the excess electricity that cannot generate as nobody wants it until later that day. Perhaps we will need way more facilities than Lathrop in the USA and Canada, how about the UK and Europe, South America, Australia, and every country with the possible exception of China which will be stealing Tesla's blueprints and building their own. Elon will not care as this will be the best way to transition to renewable energy.
@acmefixer1 Жыл бұрын
The Megapacks are using CATL batteries. So we have to build Gigafactories to make LFP batteries to replace the CATL batteries. But the incredibly fortunate problem is that the demand for batteries is so great that all the batteries from CATL and the new domestic factories will be needed for many millions of Tesla Powerwalls all over the world! Yay! We have to get rid of those fossil fueled generators to end global warming!
@FarmtheSunUSA Жыл бұрын
Mark, you've got a great perspective! The low-hanging fruit is Megapacks, versus Powerwalls and the labor hours to bring to the finish line, as in 'throw the switch'. Thanks to SolarCity?
@saufai74 Жыл бұрын
I definitely agree that the plan should/is to build more factories for MPs. Similar to Giga Shanghai it was the first focus of a new style of factory built in the most efficient way. Then came Berlin and Austin. Lathrop is the first and now they have the learnings from building that the next one should be better and more efficient. The evidence was well documented in this video. Let the mainstream sleep in this while those who have their eyes open now but more stock.
@TimothyParker1 Жыл бұрын
A few things you missed is the very lucrative planning and installation fees as well as the recurring software and maintenance fees. That could turn into $5B-$20B in revenue by 2030
@AaronMcFarland Жыл бұрын
The continual revenue is icing on the money cake. The autobidder part of the software (the determines when to buy and sell electricity) will be a money printer for both Tesla and the megapack purchaser.
@petercrossley1069 Жыл бұрын
The mega pack is not just battery and inverter, it is also a software package.
@howtomanagetech Жыл бұрын
Tesla is creating an eco-system of hardware * and * software. They are also having a bet each way. Their megapack are going into grids and "traditional" generator-dominated energy, while their powerwalls go into consumers homes, and when tied together with software, those home units become a virtual power plant or VPP. Combined with your Tesla app, you can increasingly reduce dependence on your external generation companies, and even trade your own energy via Tesla as the broker, into the marketplace. Its the same as how once most shares had to be traded through a broker, and only wealthy people could afford that, when now we can trade ourselves via an app.
@anuardalhar6762 Жыл бұрын
Wake up people from your hallucination. Battery packs are just like storage tank for weather induced variable power generation of your solar and wind farm. They dont add to generatiom capacity of the grid. They only smooth out power generation when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. You still need hydro, nuclear, coal and gas plants as base load to cater to variable daily, weekly, monthly and yearly power demand of the consumer.
@donaldhenderson1870 Жыл бұрын
I can understand private citizens not knowing that Tesla has many markets it serves, but Yahoo finance and other investment channels having hosts that don’t know is unforgivable.
@nguyep4 Жыл бұрын
They only see Tesla as a car company and confirmation bias become even more evidence when they point out all the profit were from the cars business. They don't acknowledge the revenue is put in to R&D and other costs for Energy side of the business or AI development or manufacture technologies advancement, software development, etc. So therefore, Tesla is only a car company.
@AKJammer1 Жыл бұрын
They do know, but they also know their audience. Megapacks aren't sexy, they're just a box of batteries. Cars are sexy which means more people interested and more viewers and more advertising dollars for their network.
@greggrant4614 Жыл бұрын
The 30% cost reduction noted is meaningful if it's 30% reduction per kilowatt-hour (kWh), rather than 30% reduction per kW, as shown in bold letters up front. While this error is avoided later on your talk, please fix this error up front, so you're not confusing your audience with the wrong units. KiloWatts, MegaWatts, GigaWatts are all units of power capability, not energy storage capability or capacity. When you're talking about energy storage, like you are, then you should be using energy units, not units of power. Since this confusion is a common one, please help your audience understand the major difference between energy (kWh) and power (kW) capability.
@andremalcolm_studio Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this. Tesla has and always will be a energy company.
@MarkXHolland Жыл бұрын
Yes. Not only is Elon going for big auto, he's going for big oil. When Tesla's market cap is bigger than Saudi Aramco, we'll know the switch is happening.
@E-Nigma_ Жыл бұрын
We really need to separate Elon from Tesla. He didn’t create it, and isn’t contributing anything. We need to be praising the engineers, manufacturers, materials scientists, and supply chain operators.
@E-Nigma_ Жыл бұрын
Oh, and also teslas lawyers, without them, they wouldn’t have the favor of the government.
@johnmcbirnie3203 Жыл бұрын
eerm, Elon did not technically create the business called Tesla. That was done by 2 guys, Eberhard and Tappening. They made a business plan. No IP, no engineering, nothing. A basic preliminary plan. Elon's techicsl and business leadership created what we know as Tesla today. The original "founders" essentially did zero in terms of building the company.
@E-Nigma_ Жыл бұрын
@@johnmcbirnie3203 If I were you, I’d go back and read some more information. Those two are the original engineers of the foundational concept (the roadster). Their IP is the drivetrain. Elon bought them out, and discredited them through lies (all of this is now recorded history). Elon designed a proprietary charging connection port and that’s all. He has no technical or business leadership. He is a parrot speaking the ideas of much smarter people. His job is PR. I cite the entire twitter take over as evidence of what happens when Elon has full control. I cite the solar panel business that has been shuttered as another example. SpaceX and Tesla dominate because there are very smart people leading teams. I will not shit on Elon completely. He has done well as a celebrity mouth piece and generating public interest/securing money from early adopters through lies that have cost similar ceos jail time (theranos). He may have some ceo business acumen. But that board, lawyers, and engineers across the relevant fields (operations, process, materials, Chem, etc) are what’s driving the innovation. Not Elon.
@Ry-lx2kl Жыл бұрын
@@E-Nigma_ this trope is nonsense yet keeps getting thrown out there. Do a little research and you'll discover how Elon has been able to amass billions from a $22k initial investment. It's Elon's vision, leadership, and capital that have made this possible. Without Elon Tesla would not exist as it does today, if at all. If he doesn't add value then why can't anyone else produce the results he does? Just stop it. This is nonsense.
@lorendjones Жыл бұрын
Tesla's car margins are so much better than every other manufacturer that there's simply no contest. A small price cut puts far more pressure on their competitors than it does on their bottom line.
@georgeginsburg545 Жыл бұрын
Great video. Once it’s clear I’m not gonna lose everything on my Tesla LEAPs or am able to recoup a decent amount to convert them into some Tesla stock, I’ll become a Patreon member of this channel. 😀
@MindFieldMusic Жыл бұрын
Great video, but you did miss one thing: Autobidder software. This could be a huge revenue stream for Tesla with SaaS-like margins. Basically, Tesla optimizes the grid demand and takes a cut from every kilowatt sold.
@PhilthyMr Жыл бұрын
Is it complicated code? AI these days and my sloppy self could write code with a company that already builds these with amazing quality. What’s to say they don’t make a deal with CATL too and undercut Tesla? Those margins are waaay too high for other people to now compete to get a piece of that delicious battery pie. What’s stopping anyone else from doing this? Thanks
@MindFieldMusic Жыл бұрын
@@PhilthyMr honestly, I don't know, but it might be a bit more nuanced than that. For instance, lots of automakers are having trouble making their cars' software as good as Tesla's. Most of them still can't even do over-the-air updates. VW had to delay one of their EVs because of software issues. The cars were built and just collecting dust because the software didn't work. So I assume there's some competitive advantage to writing good software and algorithms. People seem to prefer Google's search algorithm, though I can't tell you why others can't seem to compete. I don't know if those same rules apply in this scenario, though. You might be right.
@howtomanagetech Жыл бұрын
@@PhilthyMr The industry is bound up in lots of regulations, and the renewables sector is still evolving. For example, in Australia we only just moved from 30 minute pricing to 5 minute pricing. The 5 minute pricing window favours batteries. Tesla is working in Adelaide on a 50,000 Powerwall Virtual Power Plant (VPP) subsidized by the South Australian government. When they got to about 3,000 powerwalls (and solar panels), they started bidding into the market and had a few rough starts, where the energy mix wasn't right. But after they got it "tuned", the whole thing started working, making money and helping the grid. Its these years of experience that Tesla is building up and learning all the while, that will help their edge. And imagine being able to ask the Tesla HQ AI team for some assistance building nueral nets to amp up the market-trading AI, or a few days of Space X engineering boffins for the electrical maths...?
@atheneus Жыл бұрын
I believe they’re already making that kind of money from their supercharging stations
@stevenvasselljr.9278 Жыл бұрын
When many people realize the potential of Tesla, their going to miss out on all the profits 📈
@Robert-ny8fi Жыл бұрын
615/kWh is incorrect! Market is 1/2 that price!! When pricing with tsla battery from website there is a soft cost that is fixed for engineering and drawing. The bigger the system the lower this cost in kWh. Try ordering 100 mega packs versus 1 mega pack and u will see the diff
@thomasgade226 Жыл бұрын
@11:45 , the video mixes kW (power) and kWh (energy). These batteries have about 1 hour duration so kW happens to be same as kWh (coincidence), but these should always be stated separately.
@michelangelobuonarroti916 Жыл бұрын
They have 2 or 4 hour duration.
@thomasgade226 Жыл бұрын
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 then even more important to keep kW and kWh separate when describing them
@nckyhng Жыл бұрын
Does that change his calculation of $/kWh?
@darinf.5893 Жыл бұрын
Hey, great video. Are you sure the new price for the mega packs are current up to this Q4? I know they had much worse margins from old contracts that kept them very low, but I wasn't sure how much longer that backlog had until they would be able to start producing them at these much more favorable levels for margins.
@kevinplatt Жыл бұрын
Remember 12 years ago when no one gave a hoot about EVs? I see a similar sentiment surrounding stationary storage at the moment....
@michelangelobuonarroti916 Жыл бұрын
A lot of people gave a hoot and still do. These people don't want their grandkids hit with high taxes to pay for flood damages.
@kevinplatt Жыл бұрын
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 That's true; a lot of people did care (myself included). I should say that the masses didn't seem to care - or at least it wasn't getting the attention it deserved.
@jmattos Жыл бұрын
They have no idea how good Tesla's margins on the car are, also!
@danielstapler4315 Жыл бұрын
All they have to do is read the quarterly reports.
@patrickwrightson2072 Жыл бұрын
Your videos are stellar, but (not meant to offend in any way) you may consider making the titles slightly less “clickbaity”. I have shared several of your videos with those in my immediate social circle, and the most frequent response is that they would seem more legitimate if the titles didn’t sound so over the top 😂. Just food for thought 🤷🏼♂️
@krest5955 Жыл бұрын
The energy ramp will be at least as interesting as any Gigafactory ramp. March 1st gonna be real interesting!
@kurtpeterson1866 Жыл бұрын
Great video. Minor note, 5,000 cycles / 365 = 13.7 years not 11 years as stated, correct?
@FarmtheSunUSA Жыл бұрын
This is key: "recurring software and maintenance fees. That could turn into $5B-$20B in revenue by 2030", versus the SolarCity model. Sending a crew to install residential solar and storage for a couple of days to install a $30,000 system versus having a Megapack contract for recurring software and maintenance makes so much sense. 14 Reply
@jmo9113 Жыл бұрын
Here in France we estimate the cost of a Pumped Storage Facility at 50 €/kwh with a capacity of number of cycles without loss of capacity over tens of years or even a century. The price of battery storage will always compete with these low storage prices and above all with potentially immensely larger storage capacities. The battery solution will only remain suitable for small local supplies to meet peak power demand. Keep this in mind before you get too excited about fantastic projections.
@williamlloyd3769 Жыл бұрын
Pump storage is fantastic but there are a limited amount of locations you can construct such an installation. Additionally a Megapack can be installed in 6-9 months versus several years.
@jimpurewal2661 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video. I think a GM% even between 30% to 40% would be excellent. Sandy Munro thinks 40% is very doable. The important thing in 2023 is seeing an upward ramp and the Q4 call will be important to see how much, if at all, management talks about the FY 2023 energy guidance. I hope they do however keep expectations low and surprise to the upside in 2023.
@jwmc41 Жыл бұрын
Love how you put these videos together. And apparently Fluence is the only real competitor?
@w0ttheh3ll Жыл бұрын
5:36 why would one cycle per day never be the case? Tesla offers 4h and 2h discharge variants, so 6 and 12 full cycles per day are technically possible. In use cases where you actually try to earn money by operating the battery you will want to maximize returns by running it at every opportunity.
@ALPHAGENXCORP Жыл бұрын
are these megapacks good in cold weather and hot weather? can they hold during storm/hurricanes etc?
@charlesrovira5707 Жыл бұрын
They're used in *Alaska* in winter. (-40° Celcius. 'Nuff said...) They're used in *Australia* in summer. (+40° Celcius. 'Nuff said...)
@altondavis2 Жыл бұрын
It doesn't matter, there is enough demand in either climate to keep Tesla busy.
@5353Jumper Жыл бұрын
Storing some energy is better than storing no energy, so it does not really matter. All that will happen is engineers will account for temperature extreme losses when they do their math and buy a few extra packs to account for it. So the projects will have extra storage in moderate temperatures and enough storage in extreme temperatures. Just like most of the obstructionist FUD comments; yes they have though of that and done the math and adjusted for it and the product is still beneficial even considering that little gotcha imperfection. But we will still see it brought up in millions of social media comments as a fake reason we should just keep burning fossil fuels instead.
@dlwlrma9792 Жыл бұрын
Excellent intro. Wonder what is the advantage of TSLA MP compared to other products on the market? TSLA isn't the only company building energy storage product, right?
@HansWeberHimself Жыл бұрын
That frying pan: aluminum. Just saying, as a dad, who has an iron pan.
@TechboyUK Жыл бұрын
Excellent video - clear explanation of this. Tesla is developing many products that are complementary (electric cars, Semi's, charging networks, solar, storage, software, insurance, etc.) and the media only focuses on the cars...
@andrasbiro3007 Жыл бұрын
Demand is way much higher than that. As they explained at Battery Day, and anyone can easily do the math, demand will be several TWh per year. Even now the new factory is too small. Think about the power outages in California and Texas or the energy crisis in Europe. In both cases energy storage would be a huge help, and the scales involved are already beyond the 40GWh capacity of Lathrop. And if prices go down, demand can scale up almost indefinitely. Currently it's cheaper to overbuild production and use as little storage as possible, but as prices go down, the optimum shifts toward more storage. In the limit, it could make sense to store excess solar power in summer to be used in winter. That's a staggering amount of storage. Likely won't make economic sense any time soon, if ever, but it's a possibility.
@williamjessemayfieldsr5471 Жыл бұрын
I agree 100% !!!!!
@spaguyster Жыл бұрын
Don’t forget Tesla also gets a cut of the energy bought AND sold with their brokering software buy/charge when electricity cheap, sell it as demand peaks. All autonomously, free revenue nobody talks about.
@soundnutz Жыл бұрын
Very good point of view 👌 I admit that if I could buy a power wall 2 in Albany Georgia I would definitely be interested
@charlesrovira5707 Жыл бұрын
@10:15 And they have the _software writing chops_ to tie everything together into *VPNs.* ( *Virtual Power Networks* )
@janedodson7032 Жыл бұрын
He’s a genius We’re so lucky to have him creating constantly.
@unicornhawk62 Жыл бұрын
Please also make an KZbin-clip about the domestic powerwalls. To they also have LFP's inside?
@kegebase Жыл бұрын
LFP batteries ARE used in Teslas, like the Model 3 RWD made in Shanghai. So it’s not correct to say they are not suitable for cars.
@charrin9086 Жыл бұрын
LFP batteries are going to be adopted by Ford as well.
@richb2229 Жыл бұрын
LFP generally have low density power storage so they are very heavy in larger automobiles. Some small, shorter range car designs can get away with using them. But they are not ideal.
@williamlloyd3769 Жыл бұрын
ISO Today app shows the battery capacity on the California electrical grid. Data is near real-time. PS - Wonder of a Megapack could be used to supplement data center UPS and diesel generator backup systems? Guess you’d have to cost it out plus see if runtime it provides would be comparable with data center requirements
@CYBRLFT Жыл бұрын
2023 is gonna be exciting.
@mobilechaosyt Жыл бұрын
Absolutely the megapack because it is the best return on investment and at the higher price point selling one means you make more than what you made from all the cars sold in one month.
@GershonBenYitzhak Жыл бұрын
Unsure about 2023, but it seems like $10b+ profit is very likely for Tesla Energy in 2024.
@philforrence Жыл бұрын
I think it’s understandable the focus on Model Y prices over Megapack. Model Y is a larger revenue and profit source short term. Plus, it’s proven a large TAM. Mega Pack is nascent. I believe it will be big, but it could take years to ramp meaningfully
@ebinrajmon5532 Жыл бұрын
Probably the most brilliant video I’ve seen on Tesla Megapacks. Thank you!
@grahamcook9289 Жыл бұрын
Steady on old chap. It definitely wasn't brilliant, more interesting although incomplete.
@archangelvvv Жыл бұрын
@@grahamcook9289 And where's your contribution????
@jimmywang100 Жыл бұрын
Love this video.!! Now I have better understanding of megapack.. Can megapack recharge or by solar power ??
@theoneonly2863 Жыл бұрын
A great great video on Tesla's MP. Thank you so much.
@AaronMcFarland Жыл бұрын
Excellent video. Wall Street is completely sleeping on this revenue stream for Tesla.
@Peter-xe4so Жыл бұрын
Good presentation. Tell us more about competition and especially how Tesla can hold off competition?
@simonpannett8810 Жыл бұрын
Waiting for Sodium Ion Megapacks! Battery changes offering more power for less will tip the transition massively as long as they have the production capacity!! BYD and CATL offer static storage along with others??
@richb2229 Жыл бұрын
Sodium Ion, solid state batteries, cold fusion and Bigfoot. I think I have a fuzzy video of one of those sodium ion mega packs
@danielstapler4315 Жыл бұрын
@@richb2229 CATL have said they will be producing Sodium ion batteries in the middle of this year. They are not some tinpot startup. Middle of this year Bigfoot boy.
@mwolrich Жыл бұрын
One word, google it: Ambri
@danielstapler4315 Жыл бұрын
@@mwolrich Are they actually selling flow batteries?
@mwolrich Жыл бұрын
@@danielstapler4315 they are in early stage trials, site shows 2026 for deployment. the point is, their material science is sound, and they have it working.. the manufacturing is where they need help, and Tesla excels at that. Tesla should probably just buy the company and accelerate their development to actual use.. the cost is far lower than LiPo, and they need no cooling or thermal management, their perfect for deserted remote environments, which is typical for solar/winds farms.. their batteries could be the next generation of the megapack. the only issue is Gates is an early angel backer, and Elon hates Gates.
@harrystofberg5794 Жыл бұрын
Great story and based on real facts. Only one concern if Tesla needs CATL for their batteries than CATL plus may be another Chinese partner will be vey quick to match Teslas offering just like they do in EVs so Tesla needs the software edge to make these kind of profits sustainable longer term or find an alternative battery that has outcompetes CATL ( which may be quite feasible)
@ekonomigurun Жыл бұрын
Amazing but where is the moat in this ?
@russadams3008 Жыл бұрын
The growth of the megapacks business is independent of the expansion of renewable electricity generation too. It replaces peaker plants at a fraction of the cost.
@syeratha Жыл бұрын
thanks for the video. This is eye opening with enormous potential for $TSLA
@StopTheBurn Жыл бұрын
Let's get as many of these systems online as fast as possible. Our local utility plans to replace the old coal plants with natural gas peaker plants. We need clean solar and wind with battery storage instead.
@paulp3992 Жыл бұрын
It's cool that you are bring attention to this! I have experience in this sector of the economy and will inform you tesla is not even the biggest player in the DRMS game. The competition is very real and very high and Tesla is behind. They have a great name that people do want.
@entwine Жыл бұрын
My main question is: what prevents others from making a megapack competitor and competing away Tesla's margin? Tesla's usual moat is better manufacturing and faster innovation but megapacks seem like a simple and straightforward product and, well, a battery with an inverter is a battery with an inverter. What am I missing?
@S2kDude36 Жыл бұрын
There already is, and has been, competitors to the Megapack in the marketplace. In fact, Tesla wasn't the first to design, develop and commercialize a battery backup system for the grid, they just figured out how to do it better and cheaper than their competition which is why they are constantly winning bids from the public utilities.
@entwine Жыл бұрын
@@S2kDude36 Do you know any company/product names of those competitors? Anyhow, I suppose others can try to improve their grid battery systems and if they succeed this will cause Tesla margins to go down.
@dandy5091 Жыл бұрын
My only question is why Tesla is not building many of these Megapack factories if the demand is so great and CATL can supply the batteries?
@AlexSchendel Жыл бұрын
You noted that LFP was unsuitable for EVs because of power and energy density, but I guess since the Model 3 is a lower-end and less performant vehicle, then that would be the reason why the Model 3 is using LFP batteries now? Do you have a video discussing LFP batteries in the Model 3? Aside from lower power output and density, would it potentially have better endurance compared to the traditional vehicle battery packs?
@gringoviejo1935 Жыл бұрын
the issue for several of us stockholders is that we know Megapaks have more limited utility than Tesla's EVs. better to use LFP batteries for low-performance EVs (robotaxis?) & for powerwalls. just use cheap but effective carbondioxide batteries for grid scale storage.
@w0ttheh3ll Жыл бұрын
which company sells CO2 "batteries" at the 100 GWh scale?
@Peter-xe4so Жыл бұрын
I also understand that software is essential in the Megapack. What can you tell us?
@mathi87 Жыл бұрын
Nice Video 👍🏼 But please, please, capacity is kWh or MWh, dont forget the h please in the future ;) thanks
@jonathanlivingston7358 Жыл бұрын
Best Tesla content on the web
@virtual-viking Жыл бұрын
And then there's CATL's announcement of Sodium Ion batteries to market _this year._ Those cells are an even better fit for MegaPack.
@Suzuki_Hiakura Жыл бұрын
Ngl, there are two unorthodox things that excite me; computer specs and power storage. I know I am weird qwq
@jakobstrand4916 Жыл бұрын
1 million to 2,6 million. How can that be around 30%?
@diogenez471 Жыл бұрын
Yes I didn't get some of his calculations also
@kiamtey Жыл бұрын
The new Mega pack is larger battery. 30% in per KWh increase
@willcabamba8262 Жыл бұрын
Add to that the carbón tax crédit that he can sell to other companies
@thesoundsmith Жыл бұрын
We've got one a few miles away, despite being PG&E, we have had very few problems, even during the recent California floods.
@SjMk1. Жыл бұрын
I'd say you've talked about it a lot before
@w0ttheh3ll Жыл бұрын
Not sure what you mean by "will take over". Yes, large profits will be made, but with the single 40 GWh factory the megapack volume will be roughly one tenth of vehicle sales this year (let's say 20 GWh megapack production and 200 GWh vehicle production in 2023).
@howtomanagetech Жыл бұрын
Sure, there is a way to go yet, but everyone is saying energy has (a) unlimited demand (b) stupid margins and (c) is ramping much faster because of LFP, etc. And while the competition is there, Tesla has enormous brand recognition. High-profile companies in Australia complained that their battery and energy storage solutions were just as good, but goverments went Tesla for the pr factor.
@MicahBratt Жыл бұрын
Also with a name like Tesla it’s fitting for an electric energy company
@grahamcook9289 Жыл бұрын
Some versions of the Tesla Model 3 already use a LPF battery.The LFP battery sacrifices high rapid discharge required for ridiculously fast bursts of acceleration, but despite lower energy density not range, as LPF batteries can in regular use be fully charged and discharged, where as NMC batteries should in regular use only be up to 80% charged and down to 20% discharged, and as stated LPF have greater charge/discharge cycles. LPF batteries are definitely better than NMC for static storage applications, but sodium batteries are better still than LPF for such applications and have the benefit of being manufactured from a cheaper and more abundant raw material, sodium rather than lithium. Sodium static storage batteries are already commercially available and will only get better.
@howtomanagetech Жыл бұрын
I thought Sodium Ion still had a way to go? From a google article Aug 2022 "Sodium batteries still need significant work. So we don’t want people to think this is ready-to-use technology. [We] still have a lot of work to do before commercialization.." CATL had announced Sodium Ion this year though..
@grahamcook9289 Жыл бұрын
@@howtomanagetech UK company Faradion already have a sodium ion stationary storage battery commercially available.
@howtomanagetech Жыл бұрын
@@grahamcook9289 Thanks for that. I looked up their website and they talk about them being a good replacement for lead-acid batteries. Wikipedia has a comparison table: Volumetric energy density 75-165 W.h/kg (Na.Ion) vs 120-260 W.h/kg (Li.Ion) for about 25-50% the price of Li.Ion (based on prototypes and product announcements). Faradion have one battery installed, so still a ways to go yet, but interesting to track. I'm sure Tesla will buy them all.
@michelmacias8969 Жыл бұрын
So what stocks to buy
@bobbresnahan8397 Жыл бұрын
On the money. They also have very good software connecting the storage to the grid that allows it to deliver different kinds of ancillary services.
@laurazaparanuk5366 Жыл бұрын
Go Tesla!
@matthewmarszowski8493 Жыл бұрын
those new metal alloy cells are a stellarators best friend ^__^
@youtubezzzz6934 Жыл бұрын
When did inflation subside?
@fredyfarkel5728 Жыл бұрын
Lfp batteries are best for long life ownership per car .... Imo
@GroovyVideo2 Жыл бұрын
I agree with you
@sght6012 Жыл бұрын
As an electrical engineer, this is the kind of technology that excited me to be an engineer half a centrury ago. But for the masses, here's is simply no pizazz to battery storage and the potential for oil independency. This is really a mainstream media issue, which is captives to big oil in the same way it is captives to Big Pharma. They are afraid to report on any idea that can disrupt lucrative ad revenues.
@michaelanderson3096 Жыл бұрын
Excess energy from renewable energy (wind & solar) can be used for electrolysis of salt water to make hydrogen gas 😮.
@mathewbrothers3272 Жыл бұрын
So so cool 😍😎
@ApeRSV4 Жыл бұрын
Well f'ing done!
@richardalexander5758 Жыл бұрын
Tesla insurance is another sleeping giant. Low cost insurance offered to Tesla owners using FSD will also promote the adoption of this pure profit product.
@5353Jumper Жыл бұрын
And insurance also offers an investment model, they can invest much of the reserve funds needed for insurance and grow the reserve cash on too of the base profit of the service.
@77magicbus Жыл бұрын
Excellent job on this video. I can see you do your research here. Well organized and edited with a good script. Thanks
@waynesmith1490 Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@avnerrubinov3917 Жыл бұрын
NOICE!!!
@nwpioneer2551 Жыл бұрын
Simple things. Others can make them also. Not like the cars.
@ALPHAGENXCORP Жыл бұрын
i think decent materials, quality and software will play a big role....
@jjamespacbell Жыл бұрын
Others do and like car makers when the Model S was introduced they were not concerned about Tesla. How is that working out for them?
@henrik5761 Жыл бұрын
It's all about production and productivity. Others can make them yes, but with lower margins. They are behind from the beginning.
@reyes09071962 Жыл бұрын
Just one problem. CATL = China in the equation. Does not compute because there WILL be a major disruption in that element of the supply chain. I’m sure Muskow has a plan B so that could be a topic for a future episode.
@richb2229 Жыл бұрын
Heat pumps will be as big and maybe bigger than mega packs. No one has their eye on this but Tesla is likely to build the first heat pump plant in the US in the next year or two. And it will be highly automated. These will be nothing like heat pumps currently used in housing and larger buildings today.
@hugochan2821 Жыл бұрын
The problem is that making iron battery is easier and other company will catch up.
@vasthefox Жыл бұрын
Absolutely brilliant
@andyharcup7124 Жыл бұрын
Great video ! Thanks for making and sharing 🙏
@johnpoldo8817 Жыл бұрын
The reason we hear more about Tesla vehicles is they are interesting consumer products. The Megapack is an industrial product, often used to offset peak electrical demand. It’s too technical for the “average-Joe.” The cost for building and operating a Peaker power plant is about 10x greater than a Megapack. Coal & gas fired Peakers are bad for environment too.
@tyharris9994 Жыл бұрын
30% tax credit = producers raise price by 30%. Exactly what happened with EV tax credit.
@MicahBratt Жыл бұрын
Great presentation!
@Jam-In-With-Ben Жыл бұрын
hi
@AlexSchendel Жыл бұрын
A little nitpick on your usage of units in several of your videos: You often note the units "kWh" and "MWh" and "GWh", but pronounce them as kiloWatt (kW), MegaWatt(MW), GigaWatt(GW). The units are actually kiloWatt-hours, MegaWatt-hours, and GigaWatt-hours to denote energy rather than power.
@BWowed Жыл бұрын
The new Mega pack is larger.
@aquavelva4927 Жыл бұрын
Lay-thrup
@뭘봐-d6t7m Жыл бұрын
No doubt this video is excellent.
@heldert6231 Жыл бұрын
Tesla's price drop is significant! ask those who bought b4 the drop how they feel... FSD isn't worth the $15 they charge (maybe $5k). They should correct the current problems and improve their products and it'll be worth more...