THIS Will Happen to the US Housing Market through 2025

[@ernestconnell8087]

High interest rates, high housing costs, increasing layoffs, people working from home, plus many existing homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, etc.

[@jaysportsenthusiast7632]

@@ernestconnell8087 so knowing that 78% of buyers are home owners themselves, inform the buyers that the home prices are finally dropping. That then time to buy is now if they’ve got 5 plus years of equity in the home and they wanted to upgrade, now is the time to

[@toinengwyn3935]

Jobs trump low rates. Increased layoffs means more delinquencies.

[@johnmarshall1668]

Rates are not high. These are actually fair and normal for a sound economy

[@ernestconnell8087]

@ lol

[@ian_pedalz]

@@johnmarshall1668they are actually high in comparison to income. In 2022, the median sale price for a single-family home in the US was 5.6 times higher than the median household income, higher than at any point on record dating back to the early 1970s.

[@mchristr]

Earn more money, increase supply, OR see a major downward correction in prices. The third option is the best. Rates are not as important as are prices.

[@eltonvance8331]

Agreed, people keep talking about rates! If I couldn't afford a 175k overvalued home at 7% and I still can't at 6%, why are we talking about rates not pricing? It's "seems" like Jason has bought into the rate b.s.

[@JasonWalter1]

I hear ya. We would need a massive increase in supply to cause a significant decrease in prices. Not sure where a big increase in housing inventory would come from though. Foreclosures are near record low, homeowners have nearly record highs in equity, many homeowners are reluctant to sell since they have a rate far below today's rates, etc. I'm keep an eye on the labor market though.

[@steverogers9453]

​@@JasonWalter1 Hi Jason, question. In states like in California, is it true that the government put regulation, which caused inventory to be low? I heard about Prop 33 and I wonder whether if it's passed can it make some kind of impact.

[@CurtisLoew-q7q]

Disagree. That is so selfish. So the 140 million house owners need to lose equity so a few low earners can buy houses? BTW, you will not be able to outbid cash investors AND you won’t get a loan. Remember the GFC?

[@eltonvance8331]

@CurtisLoew-q7q i believe big corporations need to be banned from purchasing homes. Yet you say it is not fair? The economy is inflated to include housing. Everything has to come down, including housing equity. Let's be honest. There is no business being what it is now.

[@debbiesmith7723]

The housing market sucks

[@macbrazzle754]

@@debbiesmith7723 no this criminal government does

[@JasonWalter1]

Certainly a challenging one with elevated mortgage rates and prices :/

[@CurtisLoew-q7q]

For you.

[@JoieJameson]

Desperately needing a small home to live in can anybody help?

[@8675-__]

​@JoieJameson look in Eastern Georgia! Areas located outside Savannah have plenty of reasonably priced homes...fixers. You just need to look. And look daily! Plus there's plenty of jobs in the area too of all kinds

[@coolartps]

For those who really want to sell you might want to start thinking about lowering your price before ya get burried in debt. Because if you lose your job or hours are cut like i think is planned then you might wanna sell now. It may be a last chance to gain the last little bit.

[@jaydeeare285]

Homeowners now have recoed breaking amounts of equity and about 45% are owned outright. They also are more likely to have real careers and not just "jobs" where hours can get "cut". You're thinking from the standpoint of a wage earning renter and that's not what he majority of homeowners are. Obviously.

[@Lazlazor]

Most sellers are what we call "out to lunch" and not in realization of what is going on and will end up losing their a$$ on their homes for sale. They think their houses are made of gold and don't want to lower prices. Sellers are about to get a very very rude awakening when these prices drop drastically over the next few months. Should of lowered sooner and got out while you still had your shirt left.

[@PEYPLACE]

​@@jaydeeare285It's 40%, and I wonder how many homes are paid off by corporations.

[@jaydeeare285]

@@Lazlazor And you're basing this wish casting on what , exactly? I'll wait.

[@leosotelo5119]

i will not sell any time soon. i plan on giving it to my kids. cali homes will be way to expensive when my kids are older.

[@zwatwashdc]

Higher end houses in Tennessee are insanely expensive. It feels super risky to buy a nice house because I know people just don’t make that much money in these towns.

[@GuitarsAndSynths]

yup TN, FL, TX, ID, MT are now as expensive as California.

[@Bjamin9891]

I’m in Johnson city some homes are sitting and others are pending in a few days….. I’m waiting for a pull back but idk man so many people coming in from fl dc ny co ca

[@gogotravels1376]

I went looking for homes in the tampa area after the 2 hurricanes just hit, and the realtors still have pre- hurricane prices. Some even told me to buy now because prices are going back up. So 2 hurricanes hit and prices appreciate? I'm really not trusting some of these realtors.

[@cyndiipanda]

@@gogotravels1376 just wait til our insurance increase letters start coming in for renewal lmao I’m sure they’ll start cutting then 🤣

[@DixieNormus_007]

@gogotravels1376 I'm my personal experiences, never trust what realtors tell you. Generally the opposite is the truth. Integrity hardly exists in that industry..

[@8675-__]

You need to speak directly to the home owners...find an area you like and go door to door. Asking if anyone is interested in selling soon. This method actually works well, but can take time. And after a storm is prime time to find your new place. Best wishes

[@NovellAllen]

@@gogotravels1376 sad but true. I didn't think of that. Alot of people will be in 😲

[@jimmierand5559]

Thanks! I appreciate you taking the time to read your viewers' comments and responding. That's probably a full time job in itself.

[@JasonWalter1]

My pleasure and thank you! I do my best :)

[@Courtney-Alice-Gargani]

Good Morning, Jason. The year is almost over and 2025 is around the corner. Let's see where the market goes in 2025.

[@JasonWalter1]

I'm very curious to see what happens. Good morning, Courtney!

[@GuitarsAndSynths]

I bought my first home several years ago as place to live long term. Hopefully I can eventually pivot to a MCM home with larger yard in the future once rates drop again.

[@moozillamoo2109]

7.455%. That's the 30-year fixed mortgage today. I think we are in a depression for housing and autos. Retail is barely breathing.

[@jaydeeare285]

Rates are actually at 7.09% according to mortgage news daily and prices are up another 5%+ year over year according to redfin. The only thing that's "depressed" are the people still stuck renting.

[@rossderer6154]

If the government actually cared something would change. At least they could do is eliminate capital gains on housing. This way retirees could sell their oversized homes and get more supply on the market. Theres not enough incentives to sell.

[@KAZHE63]

And buy what? A much smaller house for the same price? I guess you want us all in nursing homes, but nobody can afford those, either.

[@rossderer6154]

@KAZHE63 this would be for empty nesters looking to downsize. So yes you'd be getting a smaller house for more but pay no capital gains. Which would be huge in most cases.

[@matthowell1633]

I’m curious on your take on multigenerational house trends in the US. That’s been more common in other parts of the world for a long time. Potentially takes a lot of buyers off the market. On the other hand it makes issues of existing mortgages and capped property taxes and turns them into attractive features. A lot of older home owners sit in homes way too big for their uses but are trapped in them for these reasons and high cost of new construction.

[@erictorrez2059]

Home homes owned by multinational hedge companies, and left empty to keep the prices up, why is this never discussed?

[@sneekydealz]

To summarize how I have felt, everyone that could have bought, bought years ago. Everyone who wants to buy either cannot afford the home(s) or it’s just not financially reasonable. We are stagnated. This is because prices have not come down, inventory is still low to create an impact and unemployment rate/other factors are not impactful to move the needle enough. Unless someone makes some big moves in their career or are home investors, why would anyone else put themselves in a poopy situation and buy?

[@Msasha2727]

We keep looking at houses and even a small house is 200k and the mortgage payments are all like 1900 a month! That’s more than half my monthly income.

[@gingerkilkus]

People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

[@AlfredWilliams-ki6ri]

Buy now, home prices will not go lower. If rates drop, you can refinance

[@peterstrategiesYT]

It’s worth noting that in a video you posted in 2023 (and I verified it) Fannie Mae forecast for 2024 was home sales of 4.7 million. So they might be short by almost 1 million

[@h.y0134]

Be carefull with debt. Biggest collapsing is coming, from 2025 to 2030, Everything is gonna burndown. Buy things,on cash, if you dont, can buy it, leave it. Worldwide, economy gonna collaps. Please be carefull with your money

[@GuitarsAndSynths]

Brilliant analysis as always Jason!

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you kindly!

[@stacytran1435]

Thank you so much for the information!🎉

[@JasonWalter1]

You are so welcome!

[@JosephMcMackin]

This time its the Home Equity Line of Credit!!!!!! Especially the variable interest rate ones!!!!! Plus the crash of High Rise Buildings across the county.

[@elizabethv7411]

ITS THE PRICE NOT THE INTEREST RATE!!! Get a clue realtors

[@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc]

Both matter. It's called math. The rate affects what someone pays over the life of the loan faaaaar more than the initial sales price does.

[@twitchmaveric]

@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc what if your a cash buyer or large down payment buyer. Rates are irrelevant 🤪

[@Jonathaneve5]

It’s actually both, lol.

[@crand20033]

@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc It also affects the payment you have to make every month. With rates and prices of today I could not afford the house I am in today. I would be long gone to foreclosure.

[@Msasha2727]

It’s the prices! Even a dump costs over 200k

[@sarahtuttle9828]

I like the "bathtub" analogy. I don't think rates will come down too much in 2025. I think they will stay between 6 and 7%. There is too much money sitting on the sidelines for real estate.

[@JasonWalter1]

Glad you liked it 😀

[@JosePerez-vh1ve]

People need to stop buying houses, so these corporations understands that buyers have the power.

[@jaydeeare285]

The "corporations" will still have all the "power" because they're also your landlord. Didn't think this one through very much , did you.

[@JosePerez-vh1ve]

@ they might be when you decide it to happen hughh.

[@ronedwards6478]

Lower the prices before the whole thing crashes or let the pain destroy you

[@tbugher62]

Its the prices,HOA's costs,property taxes and Insurance that are the problem,interest rates dont really matter.

[@jaydeeare285]

"Problem" for whom? Who exactly do you think you're speaking for ?

[@Jonathaneve5]

Rates don’t matter, did you fail math?

[@NickSealPueo]

I’m just happy to see increasing reductions in prices in my area. Still incredibly unaffordable but there is hope for the momentum.

[@Steverz32]

Happy Halloween Jason! #REALESTATEISLOCAK #LETSGETNERDY

[@JasonWalter1]

Happy Halloween!

[@brianlb78]

I keep here about a correction but I have yet to see it in SW FL or StL, MO two places I travel back and forth from. SW FL has a lot on the market but sellers aren't moving their prices.

[@winstonsmith6204]

@@brianlb78 just wait

[@bryangrant9282]

Whatever you are doing at your desk, the mic is picking up and my sub is freaking the dog out. Check your sound levels. Keep bringing the excellent analysis!

[@JasonWalter1]

Sorry not sure what I'm doing. I don't hear anything unusual but I don't use a subwoofer.

[@NovellAllen]

Your dog 🐶 s weird

[@timeforachange-i3s]

We need to drop to 2M sales per year. If we were able to drop to 2M home prices would have to drop by 25%-35% in order to attract people to buy. This would be catastrophic but needed in order to drop home values back to 2019 sales prices.

[@jaydeeare285]

Who is "we"? Who do you think you're speaking for ? 65% of Americans own their properties. Why do "we" need a total economic collapse so a minority of low wage earners can fantasize about buying a house?

[@charder47]

It is pretty funny how every real estate agent and their moms were shouting about how mortgage rates were going to come down when fed lowered the overnight rate, clearly having zero clue how any of these markets function. Its almost like becoming a real eatate agent requires zero education and thats why we have so many bad real estate agent. At least jason seems to have a fundamental understanding of financial markets at least much more than most.

[@DevilTravels]

Bad time to buy a house. Cost of living expected to increase, mortgage rates expected to increase. House prices expected to be stagnant. Government assistance expected to be weak or non-existent. I expect the used RV market to be in demand. It may take 8 years before houses will be affordable again.

[@aaaaa-k8z]

@@DevilTravels and stagnant wages

[@Discovery123.]

I don’t know why but suddenly a lot of houses put up for sale in my area even more compare with the Summer.

[@jaydeeare285]

Really ? What "area" is that exactly? I'd like to look into this.

[@VitalyPolovin]

Home prices, what will the home prices be? Most folks don’t care about total sales.

[@jaydeeare285]

Home prices will be up , like they are pretty much every year.

[@michaelortega3461]

The argument in this comment section comes down to whether or not homes are overpriced vs interest rates simply being too high. I think homes are just too expensive right now, and a correction is needed. The question is if that correction will come. That is the million dollar question that no one knows the answer to. I make really good money, and already own a home but would like a bigger house. When I do the math it just feels like I would be making a bad investment at these current prices. I am going to wait, and hope this consumer stagnation drives these prices down. Ask any realtor though, and they think the market will go up forever.

[@fatjoe66666666]

Glad I could sell my house tomorrow and walk with 150k it's all where u live

[@elizabethv7411]

Buy a house in 2024/2025 if you want to get ripped off

[@JasonWalter1]

Or, go find a good deal given the increase in the number of homes for sale.

[@benjaminwlang]

@@JasonWalter1 Easier said than done. I've maybe seen 3 deals in the last 5 years.

[@JaydogRules-q6w]

This is great sounding advice to landlords everywhere.

[@JesusElSanadorGlobal]

Our house is fair priced and over 30 days on the market in TN, is it a good idea to rent it?

[@8675-__]

Don't panic, be patient and be prepared for your next showing. It will sell

[@samsam2669]

Bottom line. If you get a good deal ( a house that need little fixing) buy it. No good deal dont buy. Lets wait for the election to be done and be sure that market wont go down. Expect houses to increase next year. Make up your mind and dont rely on anyone, even the government. There is a lot of uncertainty and i bet no one can give you a definite answer. Last note buy a house with some land.

[@BookerT1]

if banks are reallly sitting on 750 billion in losses. Rates will have to drop significantly, asset prices will have to increase significantly or maybe the fed will bail them out. A change in any of these will impact the housing market.

[@billricheter5678]

People are asking too much. A lot of greed will hurt people in the long run

[@zunetrucker]

Make housing affordable again ( based on avg wages ). ( 53k a year is average in the Phoenix AZ 🌵area) (58 k in Las Vegas )

[@House_hacker_619]

Good morning Jason!!! I noticed a lot of existing homes are getting pulled out of listings. I’m only talking about my area. As I predicted these sellers aren’t desperate. I’m assuming most of them are move up buyers or they opting to rent it out. This is going to suck for a long time.

[@natalya7356]

In my immediate area I see ppl try to rent out unsuccessfully, then house is up for sale and sitting

[@JohnnyCastaneda-kh5oo]

No one is desperate yet. People get desperate when negative headlines start trending or feeling a pinch

[@JasonWalter1]

Thank you for sharing, house hacker! We'll likely see more of that as people pull their houses off the market in Nov and Dec then relist in Jan or Feb.

[@besnkinic]

​@@JohnnyCastaneda-kh5ooafter "their" candidate loses the election. 50% of polarized voters will think the sky is falling in about a month.

[@8675-__]

It's the season...they'll relist in the Spring.

[@Dee-w5y]

Home values are declining in every state

[@JasonWalter1]

Please keep in mind that home prices tend to decrease from Oct - Feb each year (especially Nov-Jan). Also of the larger US metros, there's very few that are down YOY. For example, according to data from Redfin, there's only 2 of the 50 biggest cities that are down from a year ago.

[@brittoncoil2518]

Wrong. Come to the St.Louis metro area. It keeps going up. We are now currently the hottest market in the country.

[@jaydeeare285]

​@JasonWalter1 This guy name changed from "enthused" and writes the same troll comment on multiple real estate channels.

[@blessedmamags7796]

​@@JasonWalter1 real life, Cleveland TX, our 2021 build has dropped 17% in value since buying March 2022.

[@PelicanIslandLabs]

I don't hit the 'like button'.................... I SMASH it! 😀

[@agusting6049]

@@PelicanIslandLabs I was wondering who broke the button...

[@JasonWalter1]

THANK YOU!

[@priceless55]

Price will continue to up 10% yr. California home prices will double in 4 yrs

[@MaximusDunamis-rl5dn]

A perfect storm!

[@genxtechguy]

… for continued stagnation. Nothing exciting will happen.

[@lauragraves2948]

Prices are 7x my income and I hope it’s a bubble that pops and an empty nester Boomer sells me there McMansion so my kids can finally have a yard to play in and their own room 🏡

[@thedustincrdv]

It’s all about what rates do.

[@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc]

Prices go up historically irrespective of "what rates do".

[@SergeLynx89]

More options good… prices same or more?……good gone.

[@blessedmamags7796]

Cleveland TX 17% house value decline

[@stevenshorten6184]

Prices won't drop, only supply and transactions.

[@NovellAllen]

Supply and transactions affect prices

[@gtwentyeightclub887]

We heard this one before. History does rhyme. In fact, it raps and beat boxes my ninja🤣🤣

[@NovellAllen]

@@gtwentyeightclub887 I'm a professional Opera singer. I don't rap or rhyme my ninja

[@gtwentyeightclub887]

History does though. I was actually backing your statement brother. Back in 2007 we were hearing that the housing market would cool off and level out. That clearly did not happen, and it's because of your observation sir.

[@gtwentyeightclub887]

Mark my words: the everything bubble is going to pop very soon. The artificial asset appreciation caused by decades of cheap money and other debt practices will lead to the worst stagflation this country has ever seen. Inevitably, the chickens will be coming home to roost.

[@elmasbuscado909]

Lol keep waiting it's not going to happen

[@gtwentyeightclub887]

@elmasbuscado909 somebody said the same thing to me back in 2007, and we made a $1000 bet. It took him 9 years to pay, because he didn't have a pot to piss in until 2016. You'll remember me in Q3 of 2025 my ninja!😂

[@jaydeeare285]

You know someone doesn't know anything about asset markets when their only point of reference is 2007-2008.

[@gtwentyeightclub887]

@@jaydeeare285 you know somebody doesn't know anything about asset markets when their only point of reference is no point of reference. History rhymes my ninja🤣🤣

[@jaydeeare285]

@gtwentyeightclub887 Yes history does rhyme. But not in the way you think. Because "2007-2008" is your only point of reference. In reality, the US housing market has only gone down nationally 6 of the last 85 years or so , including 2007-2011. But I'm gathering you didn't know that. Live and learn. Carry on.

[@CurtisLoew-q7q]

Definitive statement in the thumbnail. Let’s see 👀

[@nildalindsley2727]

Houses cost way too much,not worth it,!

[@Dee-w5y]

Home values will continue to decline for over a decade.

[@blessedmamags7796]

😢

[@JosephMcMackin]

Yes, 50 Million new people in the country but the poverty level took a huge jump during Covid!

[@Star-u3t1l]

WOW

[@lockup6104]

Mahalo 🤙🏽🌴🌺🍍✌🏽💙🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃🎃

[@DianeCardanoCasacio]

more people are considering moving because DOnald Trump is going to be our president, they feel more confident and the removal of all the woke tv shows like the view or MSNBA, now canceled.. Supply will increase but prices will not drop , we need supply to increase that is not a bad thing

[@lockup6104]

Get this election done so we can see this down trend run. 🇺🇸

[@aaa5442]

This guy has been wrong for 4yrs

[@JasonWalter1]

How so? You don't think we'll be under 4M sales this year?

[@Steverz32]

1😊

[@JasonWalter1]

GM, Steve! Nice to have a bit of rain last night.

[@Steverz32]

@ that it was Jason & thank god I covered up my grill & pizza 🍕 oven!😁

[@impeccable1648]

Careful Jason, your logic is sounding quite partisan! Trump 2024!

[@Miranda3730]

Because you are modeling non-partisanship perfectly? Unfortunately you are showing how you support a man that lacks a moral compass. What a horrible choice.

[@JasonWalter1]

How so?

[@ReynaDPerez]

Yeah how so?

[@Out2fly2]

Oh and Trump 2024! Isnt????LOL

[@coolkicker9951]

@@impeccable1648 only a Trump supporter will feel threatened by statistics, facts, and truth. Make America Smart Again! Go Harris!