TOP 5 MYTHS About The Japanese Pokémon Market - Pokémon Investing and Collecting

[@mcwildcats8isgr8]

I know the supply is crazy but I keep on buying some of the specialty sets at these depressed prices and I keep buying the standard set boxes below MSRP (~$35). Seems crazy to me to pick up boxes of good standard sets at around $30 or so and even less per box.

[@David-ue7vv]

You live in Japan I’m guessing?

[@airwick_.0]

@@David-ue7vvobviously best price you can get is if you’re in japan but you can get pretty close overseas. Im seeing treasure ex for $31 in the us and standard sets like crimson haze and mask of change for $34 and less

[@Quilly_B]

Awesome video!! Thanks for your insight

[@Dark_ibex]

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it

[@leonmagaa]

With the outside buyers growing up. Now, we can't buy as we wish here in Japan. We have a limited number of items. Even in convenience stores, each person can buy only 3 boosters.

[@ponchoking55]

Japanese singles hit different! That's not a myth that's a fact 😅😅

[@myname_isblaine]

So happy to see someone talk about these points as well! Great video agree on everything!

[@Dark_ibex]

Glad to hear you agree with them! Thanks for tuning in and leaving a comment!

[@AlexBoib]

I appreciate the sentiment and did learn things from the video. I think it's a bit disingenuous to "ignore" the shipping costs per listing because they can vary so wildly and is absolutely inflated in many cases to make their base price look the best to boost traffic.

[@Dark_ibex]

Appreciate the comment. The reason why I said to ignore the shipping costs in the examples is that what I see on eBay Japan will not be what those buyers in the UK or the US actually paid. For example, nobody paid 4,500 Yen shipping for 10 packs in the UK. It would have cost me that much to ship these over to Japan. When I look at international listings through eBay Japan, it shows shipping costs that would have applied to me, even for sold listings. Either way, the point that matters most is the green number. That's what the buy-it-nows were at when bought, and that's what the auctions went for. Regardless of shipping cost, people were willing to pay that much (green number) for loose packs before any potential shipping, thus proving my point that they are not worthless. Listings with free shipping will always have shipping costs priced in. However, this doesn't change anything because buyers are willing to pay those prices. If loose packs were worthless, as the myth suggests, then nobody would be paying these prices. Also, I think "disingenuous" is a bit harsh here. It implies that I did something negative/deceitful on purpose. I think I was able to show plenty of examples that dispel the myth.

[@AlexBoib]

@@Dark_ibex Thanks for the detailed reply! I didn't mean to come off as harsh with "disingenuous"! And point taken on it not being the actual shipping cost the audience would pay.

[@guanxinated]

Japanese cards ARE super easy to grade, despite the subpar print quality we saw last year through Ruler of the Black Flame. Sent in 60 cards and only one came back a PSA 9 because it was off center. So, it's not so much the print quality but rather the fact that PSA just don't care. Now I just assume every card I pull is pretty much an automatic 10.

[@Dark_ibex]

It's actually almost comical how your comment perfectly resembles the opinion/myth I was talking about. Ultra-modern pack fresh cards get 9s all the time. Never assume a pack fresh card is an auto 10. That's just not how it works.

[@guanxinated]

@@Dark_ibex Really? Only time this happened to me was with Japanese 151 because of the very noticeable print lines. In fact, I sent in 3 cards from Dark Phantasma, Scarlet, and V Star Universe (Hinatsu SR, Botan SAR, Charizard VSTAR) as a test, and all 3 came back as PSA 10s. Bear in mind these cards had actual portions of the holofoil missing. The Charizard had a gaping hole in the holofoil and it still got a 10! PSA doesn't care; they don't spend more than 5 seconds per card and are incredibly lax. If they weren't pretty much every single card out there would came back a PSA 9 or lower.

[@matteroffact23967]

Something no one is talking about is how scarce some vintage cards are becoming in Japan. Especially cards from mid-era sets, i.e. the sets that were only printed for the Japanese market demand. Black & White, XY and even e-series cards are harder and harder to find in Japanese stores 😢. My question is, what happens when a high percentage of these low printed cards leave Japan for international markets?

[@Dark_ibex]

Great question and topic. Something I'd like to maybe discuss in a future video. First, I think there are way more cards in Japan than people think. Some cards were also never really easy to find (thinking back to like 2016). Having said that, there is no doubt a large number of cards shipped out of Japan every day/week/month. As long as margins are there, this will continue. A few things might happen, though. 1) International demand for Japanese cards could drop, making it not worth importing anymore. 2) The Yen could bounce back, killing margins unless prices abroad increase, which they might not. How much more will people outside of Japan be willing to pay for certain cards? Plenty of cards are already not worth buying from Japan. In the past, almost everything was worth it. People need to pick and choose a lot more these days. 3) If supply were to eventually be seriously diminished in Japan, the prices locally would go up, potentially making it too expensive to import from Japan. Supply and demand will likely cause this potential problem to simply fix itself. I wouldn't be too worried.

[@matteroffact23967]

@Dark_ibex All great points, but I think you might be missing something 🤔. Outside of supply/demand and currency fluctuations, international collectors are slowly (and almost inevitability) dispersing a limited Japanese supply to the vast gobal market. By limited supply, I'm referring to lower printed sets and exclusive promo cards from the middle era. As someone who regularly travels to Japan (living in the Philippines), I've seen firsthand these cards literally vanishing from the shelves. The trouble is when cards leave Japan, they rarely make their way back, as many Japanese people don't order internationally...atleast not as common place as it is in the west. Over time, I predict a real scarcity of certain cards in Japan... what happens then is anyones guess.

[@Dark_ibex]

@@matteroffact23967 Yeah, that's basically exactly what I addressed. A dwindling supply will increase the prices. As prices go up, fewer people outside Japan will buy. Look at vintage packs, for example. The only reason why they still occasionally make sense to buy from Japan is the weak Yen. They've already gotten so expensive that they are often cheaper on ebay from US sellers. The same is true for a host of cards from less printed sets. 4 years ago, you could have picked up almost every card in Japan and gotten a solid discount. These days, 95% is not worth buying for international buyers because they are too expensive. The Japanese market is and has been reacting to international buyers. I think you may also be relying a bit too much on your personal experience. Are cards scarcer than they were years ago? Sure, but card shops change stock so often anyone's personal experience provides limited info. I've seen "empty" stores that were full of these scarce cards a week later.

[@matteroffact23967]

@Dark_ibex Where are the US sellers getting their stock from? 🤔... I would argue without a continuous supply of Japanese cards entering western markets, supply would dry up incredibly quickly. Sure, some of the supply is recycled within the US market, but there is always a lesser or greater amount entering from Japan. Plus, many of the rarer/niche cards can often only be found in Japan or on Japanese sites. I've just been buying up loads of raw EX battle boost reverse holos...good luck finding them on Ebay. I know a few people in Japan who also echo my experience, but... you're right, my perspective is mostly based on my subjective experience. That's what makes this an interesting topic for discussion, as there is almost no one with enough documented oversight to form an educated opinion on the subject. Only time will tell who is right.

[@elvistcg]

Nice work, keep it up

[@Dark_ibex]

Thank you!!

[@somesteak6100]

I’m lovin these Japanese 151 prices. 47 Boxes stocked so far and 40 vstar universe. My future self will be grateful

[@02danhaz]

How much are you averaging on your boxes?

[@David-ue7vv]

Isn’t it cheaper to buy singles?

[@errogmh]

Definitly

[@Dark_ibex]

Cheaper than ripping packs? Cheaper to buy from Japan? Can you specify?

[@David-ue7vv]

Cheaper than ripping packs/boxes? In Japan

[@youcanthandlemyname7393]

depends on your luck by 99 percent of the time buying singles is cheaper.

[@Dark_ibex]

@@David-ue7vv It's always better to buy singles than ripping packs, in any language.

[@youcanthandlemyname7393]

i mean myth one should be obvious. if theirs alot of global demand then that will make the local demand go up due to resellers resulting in the pokemon company indirectly printing to meet the global demand even if they dont directly sell the products outside of japan.

[@Dark_ibex]

Right, I always thought this was obvious too. You often hear those statements online, though. Less these days, but still.

[@andresfeliciano]

With Masterball reverses, all JP 151 packs will have potential value

[@Dark_ibex]

You have to assume the person selling the pack already pulled their master ball from the box and is now selling the dud packs.

[@Dark_ibex]

@swissjamonigrowchannel8708 What people are doing is opening a box until they hit the SR+ and Master Ball and then selling the rest of the packs. It sucks, but chances are high that loose individual packs like that come from people doing exactly that.

[@2736492821]

the centering on those cards are still acceptable for a psa10 though

[@pocketdreamau]

Yeah all those cards are definitely within parameters of a 10. Unless it's really egregious, you'll hit the ten 9 times out of 10.

[@Dark_ibex]

The Mew is definitely too OC to get a 10 unless you get a blind grader. The other two, as I have mentioned in the video, definitely could get a 10, but it is simply not worth the risk with modern cards. If you get a 9 on a modern Japanese card, it's GG. Money wasted. Those two might very well be within 60:40 and thus, within PSA 10 parameters. The problem is that PSA is not consistent on this. In fact, PSA isn't consistent on anything. I've seen and gotten back myself too many 9s that were within 60:40. Just watched a video recently of someone getting wrecked with 9s on ultra modern Japanese for cards that were slightly OC, like the ones I talked about. The people who grade tons of tens also never mention all the cards they buy from Japan and then reject and resell raw. Cards with this centering are sometimes the ones people resell raw because it is simply not worth the risk. If these were older, more expensive cards, then yeah I would give it a shot, but not when they're ultra modern cheap Japanese cards.

[@Dark_ibex]

@@pocketdreamau Certainly not the Mew, the other two would have a chance. See my reply to the other commenter though. But, even if they had a 9 out of 10 chance, that still means "not perfect cards". Many people online make it sound like Japanese cards are perfect. That was my main point with this myth.

[@pocketdreamau]

@@Dark_ibex agree with the premise that japanese cards aren't always perfect. I just think psa is a bit more lenient than they have been on the past. I have recently had a lot of success with psa returns from my most recent trip to Japan. Most of the cards I submitted were marked for damage but ostensibly had no issues besides very slight centring and normal warping and still hit the 10. I think overall stores are often way too harsh in their appraisal. Obviously I'm not doing this on the scale that you speak of but if you are careful and meticulous it is pretty easy to grade modern Japanese. Really enjoy the videos, thank you for replying to my comment.