Toronto Real Estate Is Broken: Where Did First Time Buyers Go?

[@jeffwindrim975]

Home buyer’s haven’t disappeared it’s more like peoples wages have not kept up with inflation therefore those buyers have been priced out of the market

[@DummMoney-rr1fi]

the equity buyers are out in abundance.

[@jeffwindrim975]

@@DummMoney-rr1fi yeah sure but we are talking about everyday home buyers first time buyers

[@AquAcid]

The first time buyers that can afford it don't see it being wise, why would you pay $4000-5000 a month to own a place you can rent for $2000-2500. Gambling the difference in investments/stocks/crypto has been proven to be wiser than owning in this market

[@justinjones5281]

@@AquAcidwell if for some reason BOC change there policies and allow more immigrants to buy with lower wages, houses will appreciate again and leave everyone that hasn’t purchased stuck renting. And no amount of government bullshit will prevent those investors from doing major renovations, after kicking renters out and reposting rent at 3500-5000

[@chappy24]

In the past it was considered a better investment. I am sure the lenders knew this as well. Now all the investors have left after seeing people posting huge loses. Preconstruction sales are way down as well, investors were 70% of the buyers for preconstruction units . End user only 30%. A lot of projects are in receivership as well. So many people trying to sell. People are beginning to panic and panic means people start selling off for way less than market.

[@moneekdilawari4508]

First time home buyers are leaving Canada

[@puddles1364]

I fit in this category.

[@gogozy1]

excellent choice!

[@geofflepper3207]

Might be true but according to the Stats Canada website Canada's population is growing at over 3,900 people a day which works out to something like a population increase of 1.4 million people per year. The number of people leaving Canada is still much smaller than the number of people moving to Canada. I suspect that that has always been the case over the past 200 years.

[@DummMoney-rr1fi]

retiring home sellers are not

[@AquAcid]

Canadas population growth consists of unskilled low wage workers, only people from shit holes are lining up here

[@nelliebrennan2627]

The young people that I know don't want to buy a shoebox with ridiculous condo fees, They are moving to Calgary and buying g nice starter home with a yard for under $400 000

[@benitodelbenito]

Lots of Toronto condos are anti human. I don't want to buy a box in the sky in the hopes that I can sell it on to the next guy for more money.

[@chappy24]

Plus those buildings are getting older - once they reach a certain age, problems become inevitable. Maintenance fees are straight robbery, they can also get you on other things to as well. Fines if your dogs bark, etc. Its a scam. They are probably collecting something insane like 300,000 dollars a year just off of maintenance fees if not more depending on the size of the building. So many people are working from home now and do not want to live downtown.

[@danielesbordone1871]

If you own a paid-off home , don't be stupid and buy a bigger one igniting a new mortgage and increasing your property taxes. Keep your hard earned money in your pocket and enjoy yourself , let other people lose sleep at night.

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

Lol yes keep money in the bank where you are losing on inflation wise words. Lol Dont by a condo rhat i agree. But realeste if bought properly and good location will be good

[@crhayes]

@@Relaxlifeisshort2 I don’t think he meant “in your pocket” literally. The money saved can be invested numerous ways to generate a return that outsizes inflation.

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

@@crhayes yes i know that . Still

[@TheNewSchoolGamer]

It depends on what kind of lifestyle you want. Sure, I could live in a small place mortgage free but I decided to upsize into a newer detached house so I won't feel the need to go bigger/newer down the road with the potential risk of be priced out

[@didafm]

Depends I know people who built themselves up significantly by buying renovating selling every 3 years

[@Four20ftw]

Why invest in real estate when LTB is biased to the TT. Massive financial risk. Now add disincentives like an increase to cap gains tax and this is where we are.

[@TomStorey]

People may start buying a larger primary home instead.

[@Crowback354]

Been chased out of the market. Buying is for families with a lot of assets or wealth now. Gov has helped create a literal class system of those who have houses and those who don't and those who do are quite literally superior in this country.

[@TomStorey]

Don't give up if it's something you want to accomplish.

[@TomStorey]

@dingdong8242 You can't make excuses and produce results at the same time.

[@jsks76905]

I noticed the people who moved into my neighbourhood the last few years have actually been multi-family. Sign of the time we are in. Sucks.

[@vert911]

Many of those people living in those expensive houses live very low class and poor lifestyles. They need tenants to supplement their mortgage. The car in the driveway rarely matches the home.

[@jsks76905]

Many can't afford to buy a detach in GTA due to high prices so some have to combine funds with family members to share a home or even with strangers. This is not normal for GTA.

[@my2cents395]

You can buy a nice house in Michigan for less than the cost of a lot in Southern Ontario. We are Canadian and we are getting hosed.

[@jay1645]

yeah my $200 invest. in '08 4Bdr. house paid off well lol there

[@sallyzhang7386]

The problem is the cost associated with selling/buying a property. 5% selling price to give to realtor + land transfer tax that you lost from previous home, and the new home you are buying. That’s a lot of money throwing away. The system has to change some how otherwise people would just keep buying without selling if they can. I know lots of people owning multiple properties who don’t want to sell because the cost associated with the transaction.

[@TomStorey]

It's very expensive to move. Hiring a realtor is optional, paying double land transfer tax is not.

[@BuccaneersBliss]

Very good points. The way the market is structured you pretty well have to hire a realtor at 5%. Which is stupid. Should be a reasonable fee for service.

[@chappy24]

You can work with that fee and negotiate a better fee. Talk to a Realtor, say I have two properties i want to sell and want a better rate than 5% or i will not sell. Its not an empty threat. I am sure people selling high in demand luxury homes in Toronto are not worried about a 5% realtor fee and could bump that number down to 1% maybe even less

[@moniques5545]

I love the creative thinking. We need that to tilt the balance back toward more people owning the home they live in.

[@benitodelbenito]

The first time homebuyers don't want in on this pyramid scheme. Would rather move to the US and live a better life in a bigger house.

[@TomStorey]

Is the US market less of a pyramid scheme?

[@Warrengr89]

@@TomStoreyCanada's a joke always has been. If an entire country's economy is based on homes whose value is fueled by banking and cheap credit, that economy is fundamentally broken.

[@TWOB1GUNZ]

​@@TomStoreyummmm in the red states I'd say yes. In the blue states it's not much different than Canada.

[@benitodelbenito]

@@TomStorey Yeah check out income to home price ratios in Chicago vs Toronto.

[@jsks76905]

Agreed. My US coworkers around Houston can get a detach for $400k USD any day of the week. Where do I sign up? Why should I fund someone else's retirement and overpay for a house in GTA?

[@peterg4130]

Where did we go? We got priced out of the market. I make $125k/year and I can't afford a shoebox condo in the GTA once you factor in saving for a down payment, then mortgage payments, monthly maintenance and taxes.

[@TomStorey]

Are you renting in Toronto or did you end up buying in a more affordable market?

[@KeithLeska]

Around the 6:30 mark, 2 basis points is 0.02% not 2.00% which would be 200 basis points that you implied to get that 7.00% stress test mark. Love the vid, just wanted to mention that.

[@TomStorey]

Thanks for catching that.

[@jsks76905]

It's very simple. GTA housing is too expensive. People either can't afford it (and move to Calgary/Edmonton/East coast), or for the money there are better places to go. If GTA is going to insist it is a world class city, that sword cuts both ways. I would rather be elsewhere warmer if I am going to pay through the nose.

[@gavinlottering]

I can't wait for this melt down.

[@SamSarabi]

Way to publicly wish for the financial demise of innocent people trying to secure a better future through investment.

[@JoeSlaxon]

Homes should not be an investment

[@SamSarabi]

@DeWalt20V Yes, they should. They are a valid, viable, and recognized asset class that allows people with lower levels of literacy in stock markets to have a leg up and build some wealth and financial security. Just because you don't like it doesn't make it any less valid.

[@DummMoney-rr1fi]

@@SamSarabi Sam, a very well laid out comment. I agree 100%

[@wertville]

​@@SamSarabi The problem with this is that traditional investment pays in dividends, or the potential of future dividends. The value of the stock comes from the real value generated by the business and economy. The only way you can make money on a housing investment is by selling to someone else for a higher price than you paid for it, or by converting it into a business and generating value through services, which is not on the table for 99% of home buyers. This means it's not an investment at all- It's speculation. We should not be encouraging people with no proper investments to speculate, especially in Land where speculation hurts everyone in the long run. Eventually there are no new jobs because businesses can't afford land, no new entrants into the housing market because wages are brought down, and finally no cash flow for home owners to pay off the home they were hoping to flip. The death spiral is already well under way, nothing left to do but say "I told you so" and regulate land speculation (Land Value Tax anyone?) when we rebuild.

[@jupitereye4322]

Forget about first-time buyers, now we have last-time buyers.

[@lucasgrowsbestyt]

Hi Tom, I'm 23 years old near TO but certainly not looking to buy there. It's just crazy that the detached single family home my dad bought in the suburbs (again not in TO, but with a big backyard!) at a price of around $140k in the early 2000s is barely a 20% down payment for most SFHs now. Wages are simply being grossly outpaced by property prices. I'm looking at house hacking as the only option for staying in Ontario.

[@peterbanh1364]

Most of the condo units are small but they are ok for single person. 250-400 sqf is enough for a single person and there are lot of people are single. If the price is between $250k-$350k including a parking spot then people would buy it. However, the current price is way way higher than that.

[@christinaserpa3306]

There are several very affordable cites southern Ontario especially now with remote jobs and schools. Companies are also moving and downsizing office space. South Essex is where we are moving too. Super hospital opening and housing is being built in a more affordable manner .. they are approving ADU’s so I can build a place for my son for later… plus winters are similar to Toronto. An option is to also get the shoe box condos and rebuild their layouts, people are living in RV’s, boats and Tiny houses - developers have NOT been maximizing space -look at New York and how they evolved interior design, Japan etc… the product on the market is very low quantity for the price.

[@gogozy1]

no one want to spend 50% of their income on house, and another 10-15% for property tax and maintenance it. there isnt much left for live.

[@simranjeetmatharoo3953]

I bought a 2300 sq ft front double garage detached house fully upgraded for 550k in the premium community of Edmonton, same house is north of 1.5 million in Toronto, Mississauga, and lots of jobs available That is why no one is buying in GTA.

[@viciss3224]

Nothing premium in Edmonton

[@simranjeetmatharoo3953]

@@viciss3224Sherwood park is a premium community

[@Casey-qm1nd]

​​@@viciss3224toronto is a dump. Far-left liberal policies have hollowed out the middle class

[@Mortgage.Expert]

TOO COLD in Edmonton

[@JoeSlaxon]

Edmonton is cheap for a reason

[@613Builds]

First time buyers are probably not looking in Toronto . I bought my first home last fall in the country, much more affordable, more privacy, less pollution, less noise. The only reason I can see real estate is so expensive in the city is because it’s closer to business and work otherwise it’s just noisy and polluted. I don’t understand why people are paying a millions to live in the noisy polluted city.

[@CaptainBlankENT]

I for one, am in the process of buying in another province lol. Job allows me to move, and I'm getting MUCH more house for my dollar. I may have been born in Toronto, but I'm not about to financially die there, so that some retiree can laugh to the bank. Enjoy!

[@TomStorey]

Are you buying in Alberta?

[@CaptainBlankENT]

@@TomStorey Happily. My retirement plan and my home won't likely overlap, and I'm okay with that.

[@rnainggo1690]

Been looking for an opportunity to move out of canada. This system is not sustainable. The once great Egypt, Persian and Babylon is untraceable. We never learn from the past.

[@chappy24]

the higher end will always sell always not a low of supply and huge demand, happens in any market. The lower end of any market are all very similar and the supply is always more than the demand, more of a buyers market. The demand for the downtown condo is dying. In the future, downtown is consider the slums. I think Toronto will drop to 500$ per square foot for condos.

[@deedunk8383]

There are buyers out there, unfortunately some don't qualify on their own. And with everything else going up, some buyers have given up or some have relocated.! Great video as usual!

[@eddybigdata8794]

Once interest rates start coming down heavily, we will see more activity in the housing market in my view. The same trend is happening globally not just in Canada.

[@SalamNaser-c6h]

The problem is the huge growth in values of houses !!!! It’s insane !!! Capital tax gain on primary residency is necessary!!! Unless the economy will crash but the house prices not !!! The solve of this problem not interest rate but more regulations.

[@bobbyjames4300]

It’s not necessary. Nobody will sell their homes .

[@raffalelaudano6487]

I think the developer are one of the major problems with Canadian real estate, along with municipal red tape. It’s becoming so expensive you can’t build anything close to affordable and make no mistake the young buyers are paying for all of it. People have to hold municipal governments held accountable for this…the problem is nobody does.

[@jsks76905]

I recall around 30% of the cost is actually fees paid to municipal government. They are hooked on the fees and refuse to roll them back.

[@BuccaneersBliss]

Don't forget 5% real estate fees and land transfer tax. Just as onerous.

[@move-uprealestate2130]

Prices are just a seller's wish...if you want a lower price...negotiate...now is the time!

[@Atticus-kf6sz]

thinking of moving to Windsor, that do you advice

[@TomStorey]

Call Cody Kraus!

[@professorchaos9]

Do you feel Montreals market is also broken? I have 475 sqft for sale and notice that there isn't much supply at that sq footage in my area and little in the entire city. My understanding is that Toronto is overflooder. But Montreal realestate is super slow too, almost dead.

[@TomStorey]

I don't know the in an outs of the Montreal market. Sorry!

[@geofflepper3207]

Although people hope to move up to bigger and bigger properties as they age I wonder who might buy a condo in the next couple of years as a first time home and then end up spending 30 years from age 30 to age 60 living in that tiny condo and then at age 60 when they are finally mortgage free realize that they're about to retire in a couple of years and the idea of moving into a bigger home and having a family has passed them by. Things have changed since 60 years ago when a couple could get married at age 18 after finishing high school and get jobs, maybe with the man getting a job at a car manufacturer, and then just six years later buy a small bungalow and start a family. How many 24 year olds can buy a detached bungalow now? Very few.

[@howy3333]

Ive been thinking this would happen for the longest time. 35 yr ammorts for first time buyers... Would be the best

[@bayindir06]

San Francisco, Toronto etc. , they are are so over valued. High paying jobs also can’t support them any more. What goes up must come down.

[@JLRiley1000]

In a semi, don't want a detached after the BOC cranked up the rates. I'm sure that has scared many people away.

[@Danevils]

You made it very non-bullshit this time, Tom. Props to you! Really nice suggestions, and I wish our politicians would implement your suggestions! But… They are full of bullshit, and their self-interests are much higher priorities than our needs… Keep up with the good work bro. 👍

[@tronguyet6473]

Because before houses sold under corrupt Mortgages broker , still have a lot people want to buy now but can’t get the mortgages

[@amitkadam6617]

Broken new records crash would be much worse.. real estate needs reforms

[@Matt-YT]

The solution is quite simple, but unpopular: increase property taxes and get rid of all development taxes

[@howy3333]

Developers need some new incentives. I like it!

[@jasmines.6325]

Housing 4x incomes in 90s vs 13x now, the math isnt mathing. Thanks Trudeau for not regulating investors and making no attempt to create something like HUD homes for first time homebuyers. Guess that's what happens when the main industries are finance and real estate. Is Canada just a glorified Canary Islands?

[@jsks76905]

My gf and I combine for over 250k income and we have around 400k saved up. We are not in the market because the value for housing around the GTA is piss poor, and also who wants to be on the hook for a 800k mortgage with such poor economic outlook and job insecurity? Simply, the price is too high, it's really not worth it. Sorry boomers please find someone else to fund your retirement. Not paying $1m for a 1950's tiny bungalow in Scarborough.

[@vert911]

Should have put it into gold. Or Nvidia.

[@JJTMStudio]

​@@vert911Should ofs is for knuckleheads.

[@AquAcid]

You hit the nail on the head with this comment

[@vert911]

You should take a look at your spending because you should absolutely be able to afford a home with those numbers.

[@AquAcid]

I think you missed the part where they said they don't see the value in investing in a home the way the market is now

[@jay1645]

Cant find any $1 listings so the mkts. must be doing well lol .. am waiting for -0.5% prime and banks to pay me to take a mortg. like in the EU some years back

[@gogozy1]

food, house, water are essentials. making them object of profitable commodity is a wrong policy

[@JimRevell-ny4hw]

The millennial generation in Toronto thought it was wonderfull to let huge numbers of migrants come to Toronto , believing that would solve all the problems , boy did that ever go wrong , suddenly you people can't afford a home or much else . The sad thing is it's not going to get better , the migrants are happy though !

[@MizzzYasmin]

This is this most ridiculous take ever. Real estate in Canada has been over inflated since at least 2008. Nothing to do with migrants. Try again.

[@danca5719]

The problem is there is no point in buying in Toronto, unless you have millions of dollars sitting in your bank accounts. For most first time home buyers, they buy homes to settle and to raise family. But are you going to raise family in a 400 sqft shoebox, and have hundreds of thousands or million of dollars debt ever since? Plus for the environment that you are buying, there are shootings, robberies, drugs, unleashed aggressive dogs, racists and reckless drivers in a constant heavy traffic jam…..plus the salaries you earn is the exactly the SAME as everywhere else that have houses for much much cheaper prices…..then, what is the point to be that dumbass who is going to pay off someone else’s failing investment? 😂 Please, just stop it, the real estate in Toronto is the falling knife, and Toronto realtors should all quit and find some other jobs!

[@farhanmateen]

They are renting (paying broken landlord’s ridiculous mortgage payment.)

[@somebodyintheworld5036]

The scheme to allow 30 year mortgages really doesn't appeal to me at all. That's not a solution, that doesn't make housing more affordable, it's a deal with the devil. All it does is shuffle the numbers around so that it's not as immediately painful for me to sell my soul into indentured servitude. In the end, I actually end up worse off financially because there's more in interest payments. I just want an actual entry level place to stay that costs 200-300K. Even if its just a shoebox, at least I can actually 1) qualify for a mortgage, and 2) build equity with prepayment within a short number of years instead of just making massive interest payments for the next decade.

[@TomStorey]

What we want often differs from what actually happens.

[@vert911]

My 40 year mortgage in 2008 allowed me to accrue nearly 400k equity with 0 down that I used to buy a 1mil home years later. Longer amorts work to put people in homes, just not to save people already in trouble.

[@somebodyintheworld5036]

@@TomStorey Yeah, life sucks

[@dr.indeanadegraff6929]

I'd never buy in these expensive places, I'd sooner couch surf. I would only buy in remote towns cause you get value for $, if you can do it that's the only way it's worth owning a home, this work your fingers to the bone for what? To live in a over valued piece of brick wood concrete whatever...nah.

[@enWtee]

Supply. Not more financial engineering.

[@TomStorey]

*supply that first time buyers are not competing with investors.

[@enWtee]

​@@TomStorey Fair enough. I appreciate your point. Should also consider the (admittedly more radical) idea of 3x property taxes on 2nd dwelling owned, 5x on 3rd/4th/5th/... dwelling owned. That would shift perspective from house= asset to be manipulated towards house=home/shelter. Additional government revenue earmarked (forcibly and in an audit-able fashion) to infrastructure mtce / expansion to accommodate the effects of growing population and density.

[@TomStorey]

​@@enWtee They could also increase the minimum down payment on investment properties from 20% to 35%.

[@JohnSmith-ek5he]

Why the same is not happening in HONGCOUVER 😅

[@richboy3860]

Oh Toronto, your golden era of real estate boom has come and gone. You had an amazing decade. It is now Calgary’s turn.

[@AquAcid]

Calgary will crumble even harder 😂

[@richboy3860]

@@AquAcidyou are delusional

[@richboy3860]

@@AquAcidYou are delusional 😂

[@AquAcid]

Or you're just an over leveraged bag holder

[@bobbyjames4300]

The next thing to go down is the stock market after the US election.

[@ohmsMTL]

The property ladder isn’t something that should exist. Your home shouldn’t be an investment.

[@devilious123]

Canada condo Market is a Pyramid scheme period. Garbage condo or residential is overpriced. Condos are total waste of money

[@lordalmightyjr]

Nah I’d rather prices came down than giving a break on stress test. If you want high home prices then you want less affordability for young Canadians which means less babies and more immigration.

[@sigma5055]

quit buying boomers bigger houses

[@ChrisMCP2]

Do I need to tell you how they get approvals? Jeez... Nothing will break. They will lower the rate at every BoC meeting until the end of the year.

[@vert911]

Sadly I think these sticky inflation reports might cause some pausing in the decreases. It shouldn't, but they will use every excuse to cause pain.