Trading Psychology Event | Thinking In Scenarios | Part 6

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In our penultimate episode of expert trader Tom Hougaard’s “Normal doesn’t make money” presentation, he discusses why practice doesn’t necessarily make perfect, as if we keep trading the same way, we are just ‘cementing’ our bad behaviour.
Hougaard talks about the collapse of Northern Rock and how traders implement the ‘supermarket mentality’ which can lead them to make rash decisions.
He also covers some Dow Jones Index scenarios and the questions he asks himself to use as a roadmap when trading. Make sure you watch to learn what to implement in your trading strategy.
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► Check out the other parts of his presentation:
Part 1: • Trading Psychology | W...
Part 2: • Trading Psychology Eve...
Part 3: • Trading Psychology Eve...
Part 4: • Trading Psychology Eve...
Part 5: • Trading Psychology Eve...
Part 7: • Trading Psychology Eve...
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#trading #stocks #stockmarket #tradingstrategy #tradingmistakes #psychology #tradingpsychology
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[@colinbooth1265]

This guy is it, the one I’ve been searching for. Wise, insightful and a damn good trader. Thanks Tom!

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@erikjon8432]

Great video. Thx for posting this one! @@OptoThemes

[@georgestone0123]

I’m glad I pulled through, despite the crises. I am retiring next yr at 55 with 3 houses paid off worth 4.5 million . One is my place of residence the other 2 properties will give me $80,000per/yr rent. I will have an income stream of $20,000 per yr through my super which gives me total $100,000 a yr to live comfortably. I have no debts ... Stay Motivated!!

[@tahirisaid2693]

That is so amazing, I’m trying to get onto the housing ladder at 40. I wish at 55 I will be testifying to similar success..

[@florianmadison]

The quickest way to make your first millions is to invest directly with an expert that is trustworthy and has made a name and individual billionaires

[@florianmadison]

Credits to *ROCHELLE DUNGCA-SCHREIBER,* she saw me through the process. You can glance her name up on the internet and verify her yourself. she has years of financial market experience....

[@tahirisaid2693]

Heard many good recommendations about Rochelle Dungca-Schreiber by some YT channels, Seminars and other platforms.

[@vivekmehta8073]

Wow what a level of dedication and fakeness to scam people

[@peterp4753]

You need to realize, you don't trade the stock market, you trade your BELIEFS about the stock market.

[@soronos8586]

Fascinating. Then how does AI assisted CTA have the highest rate of return?

[@fosterchild4523]

Excellent presentation. His "scenarios" are simply statistical data collected that he later analyzes to see if there is any correlation to a particular outcome. He can then assess a probability to this outcome and place trades when the probability is in his favor. I was also a losing trader for many years until I started doing this. I've spent countless hours collecting data in a spreadsheet. When the odds are in favor of a direction based on my data, I place a trade...I do not think about the trade, I simply react to what my data tells me. The outcome of my trade is determined by probability not by my chart reading skills and once I accepted that, I started making real money.

[@paulinerauwe0085]

Interesting.

[@venomop614]

Hi I'm 16 from a small country can you please give some tips on starting to analyze this statistical data? It would be really helpful.

[@janquinn]

@@venomop614 My first investment with Expert Jones trading services gave me a profit of over $4,500 and since then he has never failed to deliver and I can say that he is the most honest broker I have ever met.

[@prasadghanwat1968]

If u find this series then u guys on a right track 😉 be helpful be humble 🙂

[@atharvkhiste4954]

Are those scenarios applicable for trading in india

[@sandilenkosi5745]

This series has definitely changed the way I think when I’m trading 💯🔥🙏

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@ntokozodlamini6055]

Impela🙌

[@manolin.6597]

This series is a gem! Thank you.

[@X11bl]

Can’t stop watching! Amazing sharing of knowledge.

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@wayatanka6085]

This dude was dope, thank you for helping retail traders rise above Wall Street. Lets Go!!

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@Kokoroko9]

15 years of Trading and this is the best video series I have ever seen , Thank you so much for posting amazing useful useable insight unlike 90% of the crap on YT

[@upuldi]

much needed one in the modern era... thank you.

[@123Techit]

OMG, I can't stop watching this series !!

[@frankn628]

I love how Tom talks about how many different ways you can test theories using data and what correlations you can draw between two seemingly random elements. The fact that you can take this systematic approach and mix in psychology is what made me want to get into trading. Thank you so much for sharing this knowledge with us all for free! I wish everyone the best on their trading journeys this year and beyond.

[@philldann]

Sir , You are a legend . You changed the way I see trading! Thanks a lot!

[@bachelorsstop9761]

@7:50 Don't think where you think market will go, Think where the people think market will go, finding the sentiment of general masses... 👍

[@winstonk400]

He’s a legend in his own right 🙌

[@greenparadise2]

oh man.. more of this guy please!! he is hilarious. I didn't know i was going to be watching a comedy bit

[@EvanEvansE3]

Are you being derogatory?

[@upuldi]

u must be so intelligent .....

[@damblebee1253]

He has youtube channel called Trader Tom

[@greenparadise2]

@@damblebee1253 nice thanks!

[@gemin1546]

Had to find Tom and subscribe to his channel. Thanks for the GEMS

[@ladgrove]

OMG I started doing scenarios analysis last year just out of curiousity. This is cool.

[@Thenarayanaclips]

This man is simply awesome. He is full of wisdom. Thanks a lot for sharing this with us.

[@doresca1634]

Thank you. Brilliant stuff. Strong mind. I like Tom’s passion. Brilliant!

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@AhtishamSAhmad]

Amazing Series, Had many Questions in my mind, most KZbin videos share their journeys just to monetize, gathering fake content. Always knew deep down that its pure Math + Mental Skills VS Pure Randomness. Thanks Tom for the quality insight

[@KillerSaiyan]

THANK GOD I FOUND THIS THANK MONDAY THANK THURSDAY THANK THIS GENIUS OF A MAN AND THANK THIS CHANNEL

[@coachndesh]

absolutely great content......I know that was what i was missing...now i am good and set to make it

[@Kelberi]

What a great story teller!

[@arminnemalhabib6114]

this series is just amazing, thanks

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@Vonaray]

Man I am so glad I found his videos. Gold☺️

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@vetiarvind]

That last chart about the intraday trend was mind-blowing. Holy smokes.

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@victorg3782]

4:00 Toilet paper stacking JUST before Covid. Hell of a trader this guy is

[@amirpenkar947]

This guy really knows his stuff

[@michaeljohnston565]

I wish I had that kind of foresight! This Man is absolutely amazing!!

[@lucacogliati9428]

one of the best video of trading psicology i'v ever seen

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@sportshighlights8708]

agreed

[@mitchiarikov2614]

Great video! Thank you

[@connorl5868]

Wow, this is my first video of you that I am watching. At the beginning I kinda wasn't agreed But than, damn you open my eyes to the next level. And for that I Thank you. Adding note * There is only one important trading book to read ...

[@damblebee1253]

He has youtube channel called Trader Tom

[@MoeSkirllz]

Great informative and insightful presentation

[@co.n.g.studios5710]

great statistics! I'm respectfully requesting more of that ;) :*

[@suresh-0129]

Thanks for Sharing, be blessed

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@preetammukherjee5240]

Truly a genius. This video is immensely helpful.

[@NitinKumar-jj3sr]

Most powerful video ever on trading.

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@iinvest3935]

wow thanks a lot, a learned so much

[@iamyourfan9729]

Funny story. You jokingly say there is no correlation about the tide of the hudson river and the stock market around 18:00. This reminded me of a great website, kinda showing the opposite called "spurious correlations" which shows that even a very high correlation (90%+) can sometimes occur in the weirdest things. Just a great example: The divorce rate in maine has a 99% (!) correlation to the margarine consumption per capita. Haha. So always be careful. We still gotta ask ourselfes if a correlation makes sense, even if it is very high. ;) Amazing talk!

[@TheWinghochui]

Thanks for your sharing!

[@Ovaismanzoor1]

Brilliant content.

[@Lucas-vj8rr]

i really think that doing the opposite of what most ppl expect is the best...

[@pkwahwai]

Daamn!!! I have watched numerous youtube videos on every technical analysis..I have gone through countless charts...this shit is mental indeed!!!

[@set7455]

good tetcher thank you for this, been strugle in years with my trading, some day i will turn it around. best regards from norway and sweden

[@GX901]

Great stuff Tom real down to earth stuff.

[@Simon-th7qu]

i feel so lucky watching this

[@huntermct5049]

Great series, but I don't think I heard when he ever actually sells his positions? I get he holds his winners and adds more, but is he taking profits long after he's at the highest point and a downtrend is evident?

[@sidchaturvedi130]

taking profit what r u a pussy traders ride they don't take profit im sry sir what is that

[@myanmarforexacademy5617]

Eye opening.

[@matthewl1352]

Life changing

[@algertbraka7716]

This was amazing ! I would like to have a copy of these literature please ?

[@icxc1585]

Screenshot it

[@DayTrader24]

I've heard a million times during this that traders shouldn't be so quick to take profit or to get out of a trade... So when do you take profit???

[@alinajafi4257]

very smart!!

[@aegisblack5924]

100% GOLD. That is all.

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@Skimmiksify]

You should really practice portfolio diversification, 100% in 1 asset is incredibly risky. (:

[@damblebee1253]

Actually he talked about Dow most of the time, and some S&P 500, not Gold :p

[@Brand00d]

@@damblebee1253 reread the comment :)

[@kofmasters1]

@@Brand00d reread Damblebee comments, with a pinch of humor. :)

[@virendra5561]

Brilliant seminar

[@OptoThemes]

Thanks for watching!

[@user-xm5rk7cd6v]

mental trading explanation is very important

[@danielh3719]

Mr. Hougaard, you should look into ICT(InnerCircleTrader) you are very close to ICT's concepts... Kinda

[@prateekvikrant8154]

That's a trading wisdom

[@VBVTV]

This guy is funny. The Hudson River correlation to the S&P. 🤣🤣🤣

[@mrmono6979]

hey there...! i have question about the hight or the low of the day. after the amount of 5 minutes bar that we will probably see the hight or the low of day, my question is that we will count the number of bar after the London session open or New york or Asia?

[@jt677]

I.C.T does scenario analysis 💪

[@test-kt4tk]

Hi how do I get access to the full video? Tx

[@Enwivo]

Is the video with all stats questions missing?

[@glennstanley529]

The sage of omaha thinks differently about the supermarket mentality Whether we're talking about socks or stocks I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down - Warren Buffett

[@sureshr-zz5yk]

21:00 Dow Jones 1st bar the higher the day or low of the day

[@calmyourthoughts]

locked me in the office until I finished the series and my mind was blown, WHAT?!??

[@nukious]

This guy is so amazingly Dutch

[@RafaelSilva-jz5jm]

Well... this guy is a visionarie... he knew that toilet paper was about to be a real thing as soon as the pandemic blew out :v

[@calebcurry8422]

Thanks for the review. Text me.! +1 (863) 855‑4881🇱🇷

[@Mr.C_101]

He also mentioned the hand soap... man if he only knew...

[@josejuarez6095]

😂

[@ForTheLoveOfGqomMusic02]

Compare part 1 views to last part🤧this proof that humans are professional beginners and very poor finishers 💔that's why many people fail

[@Eternalpips]

What date was this recording please anyone?

[@yaboy5515]

changed my life

[@vishalpanchal5533]

Thanks

[@Swanandparker]

8:00 ❤

[@spurosVR]

Does what he says, apply to the cryptocurrency world?

[@Hooli31]

the cryptocurrency market is the best market for traders because he has a lot of volatily and thats what trader want for finding opportunities. Plus you do not need to borrow money and pay fees to a broker as the volatily% is pretty big

[@aGr3atD4y]

Tom is the fucking man!

[@The3Natural]

19:30 as a nurse. I will always stand by the full moon effect on a shift at the hospital haha. Quiet on a full moon? Never

[@ishaanbanerjee853]

Liquid GOLD.. series ..Never though this could be an example of through research.

[@mthxjzz6462]

Nice actor.

[@carrd3971]

for some reason my mind is struggling to understand the advantage of the percentage chance you've seen the high/low of the day. i tried to flip it around and say that 80% chance you HAVEN'T seen the high/low of the day in the first bar, but you still don't know the direction. or you could even say there is a .01% chance you HAVEN'T seen the high or low of the day at the end of the day. direction is still unclear, all you know is that it's going to be trading within range of the current high/low of the day. volatility is what you want. so i guess is what you're trying to say is to take your positions/bets early in the morning. when you're wrong stop out, and when you're right let it ride?

[@arunamalla1705]

Wow 😯 I do the same

[@SakthivelOrganics]

Great

[@alanaweaver8942]

Now I understand extreme couponers behavior 😂when I trade indices

[@sidchaturvedi130]

eventhough its was a video when he again show the chart at 4.45 i was scared i got like i do when trading

[@GamerBoyRobby]

Was this talk in Newcastle?? I have watched the full thing and only just realized it was in the north of the UK Where I live so that's why i'm interested :P

[@sarethums]

4:00 ahead of his time

[@tonicruger]

I started stacking to SAVE wealth. I've always been the type of person to spend my entire paycheck. I hate having money just sit in the bank. I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $950k. before I turn 60, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.

[@sherryie2]

I can feel your pains. New guys need to realize the risks that come with all of this. You could lose it all and you could win it all. It goes both ways. Second, what works for A may not necessarily work for B and you should not be a bandwagon investor. A good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge.

[@kurttSchuster]

@@sherryie2 Factos!! Since the market became extremely volatile and pressure increased (I should be retiring in 17 months), I took the decision to work closely with a financial advisor. It has already been 9 months and counting, and I have made approximately 600K net from all of my holdings.

[@Mcllwain]

@@kurttSchuster That's impressive, my portfolio have been tanking all year, tried learning new strategies to gain in the current market but all of that flew right over head, please would you mind recommending the Adviser you're using.

[@kurttSchuster]

@@Mcllwain My advisor is the quite famous NICOLE DESIREE SIMON She has been making a fortune online worth millions of dollars in digital assets for a select few for years. Lately, these types of services have appeared that allow you to copy the results of the experts. She demonstrates how to copy it automatically using that system.

[@Mcllwain]

@@kurttSchuster Thanks for the info, i found her website and sent a message hopefully she replies soon.

[@nathandaniel5451]

4:32 that's how someone with money shops

[@earthlastdaybiblechannel]

Super

[@tca246]

Legend has it buying toilet paper in Feb 2020 was his best trade ever.

[@karl2405]

Sorry Tom your math in gaps at 20:00 is incorrect Sample - 206 cases 120/206 (58%) - filled on the day 42/206 (21%) - filled within 3 days 44/206 (21%) - not filled within 3 days If you get to day 3 - You say that there is a 162/206 (78%) chance that the gap will be refilled. This is INCORRECT since we should discount the 120 cases we know it's not. - At this moment in time: There is a 49% (42/86) chance that the gap will be refilled There is a 51% (44/86) chance that the gap will not be refilled

[@larryking6259]

Yeah, and how about 99% chances of 78th 5min Candle to set high or low of the day? I checked and I cannot see this…

[@karl2405]

@@larryking6259 Haven't checked that myself but I think he means that the HOD will have formed at any on the first 1-78 candles ?

[@larryking6259]

@@karl2405 yeah, perhaps any from 1 to 78. Still not truth… I have been observing it for quite some time. It is more and more difficult to observe some logic apart from lower volatility outside the US session.

[@karl2405]

@@larryking6259 Yeah. Wish I could shed more insight but I trade fx not the DOW! Good luck :)

[@MrSimonw58]

8:17 .... don't over think it

[@sureshr-zz5yk]

14:00

[@ChristianCaldera87]

I ran the Thursday-Friday-Monday Scenario for the last 4 years and didn't find his 20 out of 21 cases, is there a page where we can see your data? :)

[@vladshypy]

Me neither. And ran it for 20 years, then 10 years, then 5, then 4. I get around 50% of cases Monday opens lower than Friday. I even tried with Monday closes lower than Friday and I get even worse odds.

[@tubexcmro]

I also loaded the dow30 historical Data from last 52 weeks (29.10.2020 - 25.10.2021) by yahoo financial. Then looked for the cases when Fridays high < Thurday high (23 cases). 14 times was the opening price on Monday lower than the closing price on Friday / 9 times was the opening price on Monday higher than the closing price on Friday Maybee I misunderstood what Tom said...

[@prabalmitra9532]

Someone who dissects the market more profoundly than you is the American trader Michael Huddleston of Inner Circle Trader

[@Dxtrca]

😂😂😂

[@Dxtrca]

I dont think so

[@LukeOnTheMove]

2:05 Tesla right now

[@emmajayy]

7:26

[@pBinx-bd8xg]

so after 2 + hours I learned buy high sell low

[@MAFIABULL1]

Thats what you took away from these vids? Hmm

[@dakshlohmod2292]

you're wrong, buy high sell even higher :)

[@Lucas-vj8rr]

The more i know the less i earn lol. In my first days as a trader i went from 5k to 70k! How? i went long after - 5% and closed next day on opening Taking fast profits for weeks.or shorted a 10% jump.Went well untill Russia-Ukraine war started and i got caught.

[@ZeppyScripts]

i LoVE a GooD BARgaAIN

[@victorg3782]

Hmmm anyone here trade Crypto? I do and funny how every retracement is a sale, and we're getting rewarded by buying the dips in this rally, but a time will come where things may start trending south, which is why May 16 I cashed out 80% of my holdings and just watching to see how things go. I understand crypto and traditional markets behave differently but I think this mentality can be applied to crypto as well

[@maloriebrossard2761]

This methodology would be hard to apply to crypto since the market is open 24/7, no gaps, no opening, no closing and surely no days off. Even the volume seems kind of similar through the day because when america sleeps, asia take the relay and vice versa. But still im wondering too how I can push this strategy into crypto.

[@microcapcoins]

I can’t seem to understand what he is trying to explain

[@antonioranaudo5515]

Well, why in the hell do we have this thing called stop loss you put a trade and you put a limit loss and if the stock goes down, you get stopped out is it that was trading all about