Truth Behind Bitcoin ETF's: Rigging the Game? 🕵️‍♂️

#Bitcoin #BitcoinDaily #ETF #MarketMakers #T+1 #Manipulation #ETFvsSPOT
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DISCLAIMER: InvestAnswers does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. None of the content on the InvestAnswers channels is financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and should not be taken as such; the content is intended only for educational and entertainment purposes. InvestAnswers (James) shares some of his trades as learning examples but they are only relevant to his specific portfolio allocation, risk tolerance & financial expertise, may not constitute a comprehensive or complete discussion of such topics, and should not be emulated. The content of this video is solely the opinion(s) of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading equities or cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. Kindly use your judgment and do your own research at all times. You are solely responsible for your own financial, investing, and trading decisions.
0:00 Introduction
1:30 Are Markets Manipulated?
2:33 What if BTC Buys Are Timed?
3:49 ETF Returns vs Fund Flows
4:12 Breaking: The ETF Market Maker Game in a Pic
4:39 How Market Makers Work
6:24 Does this mean the market maker can take in money and buy bitcoin and hold it? YES.
7:15 Bitcoin ETF Market Maker HODLing (Ai Generated)
7:24 Bitcoin Return vs Flow T+1
8:24 Breaking: Will update for next 60 days Soon
9:09 ETF Flow vs T=+1 Price Delta
10:47 Pearson Coefficient 0.849 - ETF Flow vs Price
12:04 IBIT Flows vs BTC Price
12:58 GBTC - Direct Price Trend to Bleed
14:17 IBIT GBTC Mirror Image
15:13 Summary
16:13 BTC ETF vs Ownership

[@erwinmasusu4342]

Excellent James. This is exactly the analysis I had been waiting for. Thanks.

[@InvestAnswers]

Glad it was helpful!

[@everythingcrypto8206]

​​@@InvestAnswersok james just dropped huge nugget of wisdom that deserves two heats 1 ago!

[@artluvr6170]

Everyone can rest assured that it is not me manipulating the market.

[@JustJOGGIN-qb9yo]

Doubt rises

[@Ambassador_Gkar]

Shrimps don't matter 😉 I aught to know 😁

[@ThePinkFloydFanatic]

Sorry, I bought today. That’s why it’s dumping. I’ll let you know when I sell. That’ll be your buy signal.

[@terrymoose7273]

@@ThePinkFloydFanatic Thanks will be waiting for that buy signal 😂.

[@StephenBrown-gt3lk]

Bitcoin ETFs are controversial because they can enable large financial institutions to manipulate the market, undermining Bitcoin's decentralized nature. In contrast, Bitcoin cloud mining is more inclusive, allowing individuals to participate in mining without needing expensive equipment or technical know-how. This keeps the spirit of decentralization alive, making it a better option for those who believe in Bitcoin's original vision.

[@alistairmccausland1580]

Thank you James for pointing this manipulation out. Greed from obviously the ones involved too, its everywhere with political turning a blind eye.

[@InvestAnswers]

Somebody has to and I may not be right, but the math doesn’t add up

[@ShadowBoxer5669]

Thanks for the investigative report, James. You're an asset to the space.

[@InvestAnswers]

My pleasure thank you for being here

[@kychin9936]

Thank you, James. Really appreciate what you are doing. There's a time when there's a theft or any crime, police was immediately deployed to investigate and when found guilty, the criminals were apprehended and put behind bars. It was expected, it was the natural thing to do. Today, nobody seems to have that expectation anymore. The response upon hearing a thing like this should cause everyone to be furious and demand the authorities to seriously look into this and bring justice. The ETF just barely started and if left unchecked, the corruption could spread like cancer and before long, the tumour have gotten too big to operate or remove anymore.

[@GirlfightClub]

Been waiting for someone to explain this

[@luisgama123]

Thanks for your work James.

[@InvestAnswers]

Thanks for listening

[@peter_da_crypto7887]

This is by far the best channel on bitcoin. I won’t miss it for a single day. Thank you for the excellent analysis James.

[@joshuagrant3821]

Pearson coefficients don't explain variance 1:1, that would be the R squared. So, .849 x .849 = .72 or 72% of the price explained by inflows. So the 15% unexplained is actually more like 28%.

[@Harrybowles1969]

Eth Etf approved!

[@Sssanbo]

Sell your soul to the devil

[@borelling8094]

Too bad the SEC doesn't focus their resources on this issue (to protect shareholders).. I've seen this issue in the OTC stock market.. the argument or reason given is usually for "liquidity" (reason market makers are given leeway on this issue).. thanks James for great video.

[@Ambassador_Gkar]

"Too bad the SEC doesn't focus their resources on this issue (to protect shareholders)" 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 That bureau is just like ALL the rest, of the three-letter ones: they DON'T give a 💩about anyone, but those who control them. Why do you think Guzzler Gensler is so upset about all his failures, in court. NO CONTROL.

[@TinoB-xl3mp]

I’m just gonna rob those that rob me for my stuff back lol

[@paulcohen-dw4rh]

James: Shouldnt manipulation by ETF managers/market makers be what the SEC SHOULD investigate? Also, is dampening price in this way in the best interests of ETF buyers? Also, how long can they manipulate price in this way and will it only be at the margin (the unexpained 15% is a big margin!)? I do own BTC in cold wallet for context, but alarmed at this behaviour and wondering who protects the consumer really!

[@KotoriOnWheels]

Indeed!

[@msbeecee1]

Obidy protects the consumer. This why James says to be paranoid.

[@almaguapa-sailboatliveaboa440]

I’ve had very similar observations and questionning since yes january, but also before with these big long dips in 4 cycles given this major fact: 70% of btc in wallet rarely or very rarely move. In other words, 30% of btcs are actively exchanging, and thus creating those fluctuations. Please, explain. 🧐🤘😎

[@chakravartiraghavan4742]

Thx for all the effort & sharing 👍

[@Maxcoiner]

Very interesting! Thank you!

[@anianohernandez9311]

Thanks a lot James. Very useful information.

[@mistermouse5540]

Hate to be pedantic but a Pearson’s coefficient (r) is a for a correlation, which is not predictive and usually does not have a linear equation (line) associated with it (though this can be calculated). What you have I think is a regression coefficient (r^2), which is the square of the correlation coefficient, and gives you a predictive line. R^2 can be interpreted as % variation explained. Great stuff tho’ James, and I watch every video you create!

[@CaneBTC]

I think they simply have massive stock. Like an extra 50k btc more than NAV value... so then its easy to play games, and still legal since they have more than 1:1.

[@SerenityView]

That's my thought as well. It would mean they could suppress the price to a large extent, though if inflows ever exceeded their ability to dump they would have to make a massive buy in order to maintain their edge. I think the higher Bitcoin goes the less of an edge they will have as well.

[@airwolf508]

This was great! Thank you 😊

[@Curt-dc1vo]

Explained variance is r-squared, not r. This means price explained by etf inflows is roughly 72% not 85%. But still very high.

[@audioeye2803]

Absolutely love it! Thank you James

[@InvestAnswers]

My pleasure!

[@MrJlucardoso]

Amazing content. Thank you James.

[@v_the_vegan]

I don’t like your videos enough! That’s on me because yours are the best there is!

[@1HundredP]

Much appreciated James and IA community!

[@skippingstonez]

Thanks for the stream

[@mehmetagaoglu5883]

Great video big help. Thanks

[@ShivaInu42]

Great video. Thanks!

[@theeducationmovement]

Amazing content as always.

[@InvestAnswers]

Much appreciated!

[@alejandrovillanueva5386]

Great analysis James! My respect and gratitude

[@holson2112]

Thank you! Great stuff

[@InvestAnswers]

🙏

[@everythingcrypto8206]

Sure are alot of hearts flying around I didn't have one good comment? Hmmmm

[@everythingcrypto8206]

I did pull over the car james so they were on the fly​@@InvestAnswers

[@Southprong59]

We appreciate all your efforts James.

[@sungcha3563]

Important stuff. Thanks for all the work you do for us.

[@cns6687]

very informative.. thank you

[@jexasIV]

IA charts are the best, appreciate the research

[@ramlist1]

Amazing information sharing James to you & ur Team....we are so lucky to have u feeding us this insight that we can not get anywhere on this planet!

[@Dhodl]

Love 2 vids a day Keep up the good work and im grateful you are still online .

[@prakashk8152]

Very timely insights...so very important to understand. Thanks, as always. 🙏

[@KingDillonVI]

Hi James, I first began watching years ago when you were pushing Solana around $40 a pop; that timeline speaks for itself! Thank you for helping my financial life! However, I have one main question; I know you personally would say hells yeah, but being a 25 year old with not a ton of income to throw around. Would you still advise buying BTC now?

[@Martin-jk2ng]

I would say yes. If you have a longer time horizon, and your age that's a great plan.....any BTC you buy now will be well worth it later. For reference, I have a whole coin. Even so, when I get extra like $20 or so, say from recycling...I'll throw it at BTC instead of the bank. You're already ahead of the game.💪

[@msbeecee1]

If BTC is going to a million within next one years, do u think it's a good buy at 70? My answer is yes. There will be cycle dips, but Raoul Pal says 70k is probably the future bottom. So it's still good to buy now. Once it goes parabolic, wait until the post parabolic crash.

[@devshetty7465]

Top class' investigative reporting. Capitalism survives because of professionals like you.

[@Luke-xt8dg]

Another big Thank you very much James!!🎉

[@InvestAnswers]

My pleasure! Thanks for coming

[@ashgenXparent]

Excellent work as always 🙏

[@InvestAnswers]

Thank you! Cheers!

[@finglisCave]

Facinating insight!

[@dorisdeulloa5305]

That has to be the best explanation I have ever heard about how ETFs work, but this is how it has always been with ETFs, nothing new. I want to add that I think that ETFs will hurt all crypto in the long run, I say that because if the price of BTC were to go down substantially as we have seen in the past the sell off by these ETFs would be like a tsunami. Don't misunderstand me I think digital assets and the blockchain are the future , but these ETFs have the power to kill price action, just my opinion.

[@GreenKnight7]

Well, how in F can BTC ever go parabolic?!

[@KotoriOnWheels]

So the ETF companies buying from Grayscale OVER THE COUNTER is the reason the price hasn't moved like it should have been? And we will finally get price discovery once Grayscale stops selling?

[@SerenityView]

Yes, I think it's because transactions made by the big 2 ETFs are OTC and /or off chain.

[@clausb2063]

Hey James, great show. Is it possible that BR is manipulating by using its settlement time for the etf, which is up to 30days. Is this enough time to move the markets before actually fulfilling orders inflows?

[@tfoonthego6227]

Thank you !

[@santossaints9308]

Thnx James, this was a great one 😘

[@bitmachine1966]

Thanks a lot for these analyses, it really helps me a lot understanding what’s going in. Highly appreciated.Good night from Sweden.

[@InvestAnswers]

Good night 🌙

[@bitcoinpoemspro1406]

Thx James.

[@everythingcrypto8206]

Me and mis wood had a great conversation today about btc !!!! The insight she has is incredible!!!!

[@soltrain9332]

Thanks James

[@halski0071]

thank you for valuable news!🤩

[@birgcelik]

spot on, uncle James.

[@ricrojas09]

James, you have been saying this for at least 2 months after the launch of the ETF's, and just like when they say; if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck...🦆 you once again nailed it!! I knew in my heart something was not making sense, but the charts you put together here can't be clearer. Thx again for all you do. Keep digging for the good of the community 🎉

[@jacqueslucas8616]

I luv all the charts!!! Keep them coming!

[@mobs3576]

Thank you so much, James. I honestly dont know where we would be without you! 🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽❤❤❤

[@bobgardiner7604]

Thanks James.

[@MisterOneHundredth]

Thanks James always working hard to bring us data! Much love IA fam!

[@tim2.7182]

Love your work James. Nobody like you out there. Never miss a show.

[@AlexOdalisca]

Thank you James, you are the alfa of the internet!

[@ems4592]

good morning from the Philippines!!

[@InvestAnswers]

Morning! Magandang umaga

[@weinvesthappiness4551]

Wow!!! Good one James

[@albedoguardian875]

The last chart says it all. Not much BTC left. Ballistic move kept under lid. Can't keep it forever down. You're the Best Data genius out there. Cheers 🥂

[@miguelescobar4140]

Exquisite videos, as always, James! I thought the whole idea or philosophy of crypto was that it couldn’t be manipulated. I guess we were all mistaken. Greed will definitely end this world as we know it. God help us all.

[@K_Villain_]

I’m holding 15+years baby 😉😉 Diamond hands

[@wholeness]

This and the Tether black hole may be the reason why "retailers will own nothing and will not be happy. Stay smart friends.

[@xhadmatrix6181]

Stellar analysis! Just a guy on the Internet... hardly! 👌🤓 Thank you for sharing your thoughts always 🙏🥂🤟

[@hankthetank1964]

This is an exceptional breakdown of what's going on. Frequently, very frequently, the price of bitcoin crashes 30 to 60 minutes before market open..... it's so effing irritating. But they can't do this forever, as liquidity on exchanges dry up. F them. I'll keep stacking sats on the dips. Thank you James... keep teaching us sir!!!!🙏

[@ko-jaxxedm9643]

James the cash settlement is the problem they do not have to buy the asset until the end of the month as long as they have the cash so they lower the price buy for 5 days price goes up then they drop the price and repeat they do not have top buy at the end of every day AS LONG AS THEY HAVE THE EQIVALANT MONEY SO FOR 1 MONTH THEY CAN SWING PRICE 10 - 12K EXACTLY WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS EXPOLIUANS WHY CASH SETTLEMENT.

[@GRumpyonekinobi]

Thank you for your ongoing service to this space James & team. I learn something new from you everyday.

[@thewatchertube]

One of the good ones James! Yes,Yes and Yes! all is manipulated! ETF'S are there for the profits not the idea. Bitcoin turned from Decenter to The Center. all eyes on it. Big Problem.

[@hugodouro8172]

Thank you so much James. For your work, entretainment, all! Worthless, priceless. Cheers !

[@jdonalds160]

thank you James Nobody else talking about this

[@mikepellerin5860]

So maybe when Blackrock isn't buying, we should sell and wait to buy back when Blackrock buys. Hmm...interesting.

[@nacho_hotdog]

This is possibly your best video yet. Need more of this investigative/critical thinking v. confirmation bias of "price go up". I'm here for this. I'd also like to see you weight staking profits more often into a coins profitability matrix v. being one-dimensional on just price action and "picking the fastest horse". Let's really get into it, and separate you even further from the heard of wannabe youtubers on crypto.

[@MisterOneHundredth]

Thanks James for farming the data! Much love IA fam

[@InvestAnswers]

Any time!

[@KDISCLUTCH35]

That direct to price chart of GBTC and BTC was interesting

[@joshuagrant3821]

But it suggests there is no market manipulation. The lines couldn't possibly be perfectly correlated. That would mean the single factor predicting BTC price is GBTC. I fear he has made an error in there somewhere.

[@tinfoiltaylor]

Great data, I'm pretty sure I need to re-watch this as it's early here... could you also compare ETH / ETHE and SOL / GSOL (as we move down the road toward "what may happen" when ETH and SOL etf's get launched?

[@luxchris4629]

ETH got launched kast night but of course no mention 😂

[@MultiHogy]

you are a genius!!! this has huge implications but over the long term it's still bullish for BTC and crypto, they will simply suck people along the growth of crypto.

[@milancollin1819]

This is fantastic research and I am loving all the charts. Of course everybody knew that there is a lot of manipulation going on. The fact that they can hold and sell whenever they want is an extra layer I did not think of and did not understand the enormous inflows and the price going down. It is like a game within a game. That means also that trading becomes more complex as the parameters are not showing what it should be. Fun and intriguing. I am surely need to become a Patreon member as you have the most well researched and depths content in the space.

[@MarkBabasa]

It always raised suspicions why huge inflow days didn't affect spot $BTC price. T+1 or T+2. Paranoid? Yes. But without insights like this, non-financial professionals would not have any insights as to "how the sausage gets made". Thanks, James!!

[@lefthandedscrewdriver3954]

Great video! On the mirror image chart, where the line peters out at the end...... Could it be that the ETFs can't get the large fills/ not enough OTC available at the time?

[@julesgosnell9791]

I’ve always thought that the fee differential between GBTC and the ETFs was deliberately engineered. if you have a large body of water stored behind a dam and then open the door to a lower level through the dam you can predict the water will flow through the hole and you can then generate electricity I.e. your cut… if you own the land both sides of the dam then you haven’t lost any water.

[@Sssanbo]

I’ve been against ETFs for a while now . Manipulation aside , you can not see your btc on chain! Therefore the distrust will just grow . Also for any pos chain (eth ) no stake . Shows the crypto markets despite not being perfect , are more transparent , 24 hours , and with open source dexes more trusted

[@georgebailey5328]

Greed is so terrible

[@Garce227]

Thank you James for this spicy analysis. Another stellar performance from this guy on internet.☀️🙏👨‍🎓

[@dogegamer3288]

Sit on Bitcoin..use the derivatives market to short it. Bring down the price...then execute on T1/2.

[@KerstinMcKitrick]

Superb as always. Yes be paranoid. Makes sense.

[@ivanbeacon5883]

James, do you still invest in miners after the halving?

[@whiteEastDragon]

11:58 James. The statistic indicator of correlation is coefficient of determination, which is R**2 (R = correlation coefficient, in this context it is Pearson coefficient). So, coefficient of determination is 0.7208 in your situation, meaning 72.08% of the data entries are related to one another, and the rest 27.92% cannot be explained.

[@blueheart978]

James, this is excellent; can your models predict when to buy based on daily inflow numbers? Make it available to IADSS as an indicator and we understand it’s for education only 😊

[@zoggl]

Lots of good info, thanks James. I see it as following: With huge USD inflows Market Makers selling Paper Bitcoin to ETF's and selling BTC from Inventory into the market, to drive the price down, as long as they have enough inventory to cover their paperbtc for the ETF's, and when they are brave enough and sure they can control the price. They need to cover their position T-1 or T-n though, which they hope to get at a lower price than when the USD inflows happened. As long as they have enough inventory, they can play this game. And it's risky, e.g. when MR. 100 would buy 2000 BTC all at once and drive the price up so the Market Maker have to cover at a loss. Thats what you are showing us in the charts, right?

[@everythingcrypto8206]

Just btc and chill my child ! Gains always come day to day don't matter.

[@nayanaabrol7193]

You are awesome

[@cyrillebaillif]

Would be nice to know which ETF is the best correlated to BTC? Are they all?

[@abasauruswex6418]

this WAS a spicy one

[@HODLGENG]

James is a savage beast,, let’s get him some accolades, a cyberbeast!

[@devshetty7465]

I have been noticing this. How do we fix this? Can we complain to senators to look in to it?

[@mainemceachern1521]

Hey James et al. Is the idea that because market makers can delay the creation of ETF shares when lower-mid volume of buys come in, they can hold onto the money for some days and wait for cheaper BTC prices to buy the BTC required to underpin the new shares? Relatedly, is another point that because of delayed (T+1 and in some cases T+2?) settlement, market makers can take advantage of cheaper immediate BTC prices and buy larger volumes of BTC than they might have on hand that day, on the expectation that there will be more inflows the next day to make up the shortfall before settlement?

[@rw1213]

There was massive sell walls of 1000s of btc on binance futures yesterday capping off price at 68k they were getting eaten into at first but then it just couldn't be sustained.

[@drewdrewson1384]

Do you know if a company will be able to offer an etf that holds both bitcoin and eth now?