Update: SVB deposits will be available Monday, according to regulators. Signature Bank has also now been taken over by regulators, the second FDIC receivership in three days
@MrSupernova111 Жыл бұрын
I thought this bank failure was an isolated event. You care to elaborate? Also, please pin this comment so we can see replies at the top of the comment section.
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 whoops, thought it was pinned, my bad. Signature was another crypto-focused bank, so it’s been facing the same pressures as Silvergate (a run on crypto exchanges = a run on their deposits). I’m not aware of another big regional crypto-focused bank, but this is still to a large degree a sector-dependant issue, and larger banks with sector diversity are unlikely to face similar pressure. With how quickly things developed, however, it’s impossible to predict what will happen from here.
@MrSupernova111 Жыл бұрын
@@ThePlainBagel . I think you owe it to your subscribers to talk about the underlying issues causing these bank failures: higher interest rates. Many depositors are withdrawing money to invest in CDs and treasurys while the cost of capital for bank rises. In the meantime, the Fed plans to continue raising rates and HTM holdings in balance sheets continue to depreciate. This is a systemic issue. SVB and SBNY are only the first affected (the weakest links out of the bunch). The US government felt the problem was severe enough to bail out these regional banks and find funding to bail out future banks. I'm not asking for predictions. Just a complete and honest picture.
@MyName-tb9oz Жыл бұрын
@@ThePlainBagel, I don't see how this can _not_ have spillover into the rest of the banking system. It's not like the crypto banks exist in a vacuum, is it? Sooner or later it's going to hit other banks, no? I'm surely no expert on the global banking system or even knowledgeable but it just seems inevitable that it won't be isolated. How many average people have now heard this story? How many of them are going to head to the bank in the morning and withdraw most of their money? If this does spread do you really think the FDIC is going to be able to cover every depositor in even a single nationwide bank? It seems highly unlikely.
@matthewdrews Жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 I think you should watch the video again. Richard mentioned interest rates and treasury bonds around 4:20 in the video. I would hope anyone explaining this current issue at this time (banking crisis???) would do so with a level head - even if they THOUGHT this was a systemic issue - would advise against bank runs. After all, the companies did have the money. It was only the panic withdrawals that made the banks no longer liquid. These banks should have been paying attention to their treasury bonds when interest rates went up. I totally agree that this might be a systemic issue. However, if the general public keeps a level head there's no reason to suggest any legit regional bank is at risk. With nearly all being FDIC insured, most of the public will be totally fine even if one of these banks falls. SVB is an outlier in many respects obviously due to its region.
@ccc3 Жыл бұрын
Silicon Valley: move fast and break things SBV: breaks Silicon Valley: no, not like that
@Toonrick12 Жыл бұрын
It's all fun and games until you're forced to clean up after the bull in the China shop.
@MissMaserati Жыл бұрын
Wondering if they've figured out what's wrong with their favorite buzzword: disruption. I doubt it, I live here with VC idiots, and it's interesting watching their own psychology problem trip them up like this. I think it just speaks to how anxious and terrified they are.
@reformedchater Жыл бұрын
*SVB
@ccc3 Жыл бұрын
@@reformedchaterCorrect. Apparently SBF still haunts me
@LuisSierra42 Жыл бұрын
@@MissMaserati Well the financial system has truly been disrupted now
@deannickname Жыл бұрын
It literally happened so fast that I wasn't aware there was more than one.
@klafbang Жыл бұрын
Doesn't help that the two failed banks and the third failing one have very similar names.
@stvjjgcj Жыл бұрын
Treu
@102nightwing Жыл бұрын
For Real. It hapened sooo fast.
@jorgealvarado7946 Жыл бұрын
@Willie Jonathan scammer Alert
@FuToo Жыл бұрын
@williejonathan9222oh my! How can I pay you to teach me...🤡
@jonathangilmore3193 Жыл бұрын
I appreciate an adult review of these bank failures without the “click bait” nonsense driven by KZbin profitability algorithms! Grounded, sensible, even review of a concerning financial matter. Thank you.
@julesjoyx Жыл бұрын
YUP. I got sick of combing through click bait “shocked face” thumbnails. So fake and off putting. This was a breath of fresh air.
@CooManTunes Жыл бұрын
Perhaps, you shouldn't be such aloser who clicks on everything in sight. Blaming 'KZbin profitability algorithms' is just a fancy way of calling yourself amoron.
@adrenalinejunky789 Жыл бұрын
One of the only financial KZbinrs that actually knows what he’s talking about and gives us straight facts and no bs clickbait. Thank you good sir!
@matttran7161 Жыл бұрын
Dude has a real job so he's not dependent upon clicks. If anything it incentivizes him not be a click bait farmer because this very public content reflects on his ability to do his real job. YT is a poison pill and he knows it.
@JayPatel-ls6wn Жыл бұрын
He actually IS a real professional, working as an analyst for an investment management company in Ottawa.
@tre-moon-dous6122 Жыл бұрын
Was just about to write the same thing until I saw your comment
@wayneanthony6831 Жыл бұрын
Try Patrick Boyle as well
@rinodb83 Жыл бұрын
A true legend
@flipsyder Жыл бұрын
3:10 Silvergate Bank 6:18 Silicon Valley Bank 8:29 What Now? 10:20 Effects on Economy and other Financial Institutions 11:11 Points to Consider
@gematriagoon Жыл бұрын
Watch Monday and the ides of March.
@TargaWheels Жыл бұрын
Weird how both of them can be labeled ""SVB".
@eugenetswong Жыл бұрын
Paul, thanks!
@stuartridgeway Жыл бұрын
OVER 586 BANKS CLOSED IN THE USA THIS YEAR. NOW THIS. AND BANK OF AMERICA AND WELLS FARGO. PEOPLE ARE SHOWING EMPTY ACCOUNTS. DIRECT DEPOSIT FOF PAYDAY. ACCOUNTS STILL EMPTY!!! WHILE THEY SEND HUNDREADS OF BILLIONS TO UKRAINES MILITARY, THAT DOES NOT HAVE ONE. ALL OUR MILITARY AMMO. WEAPONS. TO ???? AND ITS NOT IN THE MILITARY HANDS OF USA. AND THIS CH. IS SAYING WE ARE OK!!! OMG. REALLY??!!! WILL NOT BE BACK TO THIS CH. VERY BAD INFO
@jesusguerrero752 Жыл бұрын
First republic bank is next good luck guys
@pauldacus4590 Жыл бұрын
What's so strange about SVB is how _fast_ things went from "Business as Usual" to "Bank Run". In the 2008 GFC, companies that were going down were telegraphed by the stock market, sometimes for months in advance. This thing imploded in 48hrs.. I think the speed that this happened is what is unnerving people. And the bank stocks that have fallen hard in the past day or two could make depositers pull their money in a self-reinforcing cycle.
@500dollarjapanesetoaster8 Жыл бұрын
It's a bit like the movie Margin Call, where the CEO character is alerted to the massive exposure and says we have 3 ways to win on a deal: be first, be smarter, or cheat. He says I don't cheat, but we can be first. Sell everything. He who panics first, panics best, in this case. FDIC insurance is really meant for individuals, not businesses, so most of the customers will be facing serious losses. Fun fact: there is probably only 3% cash floating around for all of the bank deposits there are. So if things get weird, you have to end up being in the first 3% to demand money to get the full amount.
@boxtodragon Жыл бұрын
Essentially the bank didn't shut it self down, the government swooped in and try to contain it because it had no confidence that svb is going to have enough in it to cover the hole created by selling the treasure bond confirming their losses, if banks are allowed to hold the line like Michael B they would in this case, but that's not legal for banks. Who's to blame? Rising inflation, so yeah Joe Biden and the left wing in house sponsoring someone else's war in the 3 digital billions, but no plan for inflation.
@TheLastLineLive Жыл бұрын
This is definitely not a natural decline, it is manufactured. Whoever manufactured it is the benefactor.
@TheSilentpulse Жыл бұрын
@@500dollarjapanesetoaster8 i think the 3% cash flow number is like 10 years old or more. i doubt we have even 1% in cash, rather go into the 0,1% region
@sheeplepinoy2224 Жыл бұрын
@@TheLastLineLive sounds archaix
@somanayr Жыл бұрын
I never thought about how harmful a bank monopoly could be, but having one bank that controls half of a sector’s capital seems hazardous
@cgo225 Жыл бұрын
Agreed, but SBVs clients were businesses, and SBV also offered competitive rates to their commercial depositors, otherwise those businesses would have transferred their deposits elsewhere. This gave SBV a further problem, needing to sell off assets and borrow in order to keep funding the attractive rates they were paying their depositors..... For my part, this mainly sits with directors and risk managers of SBV, but also the risk managers of the depositors and investors.
@diegojines-us9pc Жыл бұрын
wow you just caught on TOO BIG TO FAIL. remember 2008? they passed laws to stop this from happening again. and trump cancelling some of them laws, and why is it happening again. when laws are changed back to the good old ways.
@ZhangZhongyi Жыл бұрын
I don't think it 'controls' the sector. Even though it serves half of the companies in it, one company can have more than one banks.
@scasey1960 Жыл бұрын
VCs created & tolerated this risk
@FormerMushroom Жыл бұрын
Having an institution that can print and decide interest rates for the short term is too 😬
@Karearearea Жыл бұрын
I was listening to the all in podcast and they made the point that the real tragedy is not that investors are losing money - it’s that small start ups and businesses, that were managing their money responsibly up until yesterday, suddenly have their accounts frozen. Suddenly all these businesses cannot pay their employees, cannot pay their suppliers and contractors, all because they had a bank account with the wrong bank. That means that there will be a lot of tech workers who suddenly will not be getting paid this month, through no fault of their own, nor the company they work for. And if you’re not getting paid, since people won’t be able to afford their rent or mortgage, etc Edit: Update - the Fed is bailing out all the depositors! So the startups will get the money in their bank accounts back
@johnsmith-ir1ne Жыл бұрын
A fellow all in Fan!! Here's an upboat 👍😁
@tybarker5038 Жыл бұрын
Surely there are protections in place to get these employees paid. This is insane!! Wild times we are living through.
@poisonpotato1 Жыл бұрын
What % of startups fail? Isn't it like 90% why do we have to bail them out too...
@David.Marquez Жыл бұрын
It's truly a momentous occasion when I can get something explained by Patrick Boyle and The Plain Bagel in quick succession
@dmytrosurname1609 Жыл бұрын
Ben Felix, please *Fingers crossed
@sebytro Жыл бұрын
I was literally eating a bagel when I saw this video pop up on my feed.
@ChineseKiwi Жыл бұрын
Wall Street Millennial's video goes into the financials far more in depth as well.
@pkwithmeplease Жыл бұрын
l000l patrick boyle the dude who makes over 100k a year off youtube but still begs for peatron lol that guys a scammer.
@kickassandchewbubblegum639 Жыл бұрын
it wasnt people doing bank runs tho...thats not why this is happening...bank runs are a symptom of the problem... the problem is greed and hubris....all the ceos took their money out weeks before this so its not the bank runs doing this...thats the narrative of the far left....reality shows otherwise we had this problem in 1929 and it surprises me nobody talks about 1929 right now...they only bring up 08 which wasnt that far back...this is more akin to 29 than 08 were going to see bread lines and soup lines... if you look at the bank sell off its all 60 70 80 in the red..monday wil be a dark dark blood bath of sell offs...its going to be nasty af...
@kgk4L96 Жыл бұрын
What I really, really always appreciate this channel is how level headed it is.
@davekal Жыл бұрын
Literally just subbed to the channel for this reason.
@usa91191 Жыл бұрын
US bank run start now!! Withdraw yr money and invest in house and property is the safest invest.
@patfase Жыл бұрын
I've been following this story closely and researching since it first popped up before the bank run. This is one of the best pieces I've seen to date. Appreciate the level headed view.
@TrampyPulsar Жыл бұрын
Considering the massive downsizing across the tech sector in the past 3 months it makes sense that a bank who's entire pool of funding is in tech would experience a massive bank run.
@spechund7109 Жыл бұрын
If you think this is limited to niche techy startups which seems to be the prevailing narrative that is being put out there regarding this, you will have a major surprise very soon ;)
@spechund7109 Жыл бұрын
@Vincent Wisehoon but the diminishing returns for tech started way before this bear market. Those startups getting a ton of money at the beginning was due to easy money fiscal policy more than tech still having a lot to offer. People and investors had more money than they knew what to do with, so they invested it all in the idea of the next big thing. Rinse and repeat. Spigot gets turned off, the industry that naturally got the most speculative money also is the first to have it pulled. Straightforward
@spechund7109 Жыл бұрын
@Vincent Wisehoon I'm talking about people seeing too big to fail banks experiencing bank runs. This is not some tech bubble backlash more than it is actually the final death throes of fractional reserve banking. Do you seriously think that SVB's monetary management was any more risky than say Bank of America, or (insert any big name American bank here)? They're all over leveraged, and trying to use the same tricks to be able to keep paying their creditors, except with the rate hikes, it's all finally coming to a head. This is not about big tech. This is a banking issue. Last time I checked, there's no difference between Warren Buffett depositing 500 million in a bank or some startup. People make it sound as if having banking clients that are silicon valley "startups" suddenly makes the banking model riskier. That's completely false, same old bank takes your deposits then loans that out and borrows against it.
@Smol_Eri Жыл бұрын
@@spechund7109 tech in general is screwed. Companies, in a true capitalist soceity, cannot exist without making money. Sillicon valley is a system that needs to rot and die. I feel TERRIBLE for the working class who pray that a system built off lies can sustain them, and wish we had enough blue collar jobs, and other non-tech jobs they had skills in to collect each and every one of them and provide a living for them. Though sadily we've become too married to profitless shells of companies which are basiclally a bunch of collage kids going "wouldn't it be cool if we stuck everyones brains into a headset and called it VR. Shit will never be profitable, but damn it would be cool." they hype it up to a bunch of VC firms they go "huh that could posisbly work, here's some cash" and all these people get hired while the initial founder "makes their exit" as soon as someone like facebook buys it up and goes "ok look, we know we haven't turned a profit in the entire lifespan of the newest generation BUUUUUUUT this time it's legit. I hope the scammers at the top burn, I hope the working class (this includes white collar people who are at say 80k a year with kids and aren't actively involved in the scam) can find all of the success in another field. But my nihilist side knws it will be more of the same. The tax payers getting fucked, the workers getting fired, and no one seeing a DAY inside a non-gucci jail for their crimes. gotta love oligarchies
@choccolocco Жыл бұрын
So it had nothing to do with crypto?
@lordofthegame5268 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for explaining what happened without the sensationalism that is plaguing this topic. Its so important to have a trustworthy and knowledgable source
@jakejrly1508 Жыл бұрын
SVB probably brought bonds of these risky startups and loaned them money to pay back the bonds. These startups are not profitable and revenue drying up, they are going back to SVB for more cash or loans/bonds. This create a vicious cycle of borrower/lender sell off. Top management of SVB knew this months ago and tried to use the worthless bonds or notes as collateral. No other banks want a piece of these junk loans or bonds. The Fed is trying to get rid of their own junk bonds. This is just part of the zombie companies going BK due to very low rates the past 10 years.
@alexdasliebe5391 Жыл бұрын
Billions of dollars isn’t worth sensationalizing, that’s for trillions.
@kickassandchewbubblegum639 Жыл бұрын
it wasnt people doing bank runs tho...thats not why this is happening...bank runs are a symptom of the problem... the problem is greed and hubris....all the ceos took their money out weeks before this so its not the bank runs doing this...thats the narrative of the far left....reality shows otherwise we had this problem in 1929 and it surprises me nobody talks about 1929 right now...they only bring up 08 which wasnt that far back...this is more akin to 29 than 08 were going to see bread lines and soup lines... if you look at the bank sell off its all 60 70 80 in the red..monday wil be a dark dark blood bath of sell offs...its going to be nasty af...!!!!
@MrSupernova111 Жыл бұрын
I recommend the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal unless, of course, you mean that you want to be hand fed information instead of seeking it on your own.
@lordofthegame5268 Жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 Why the insult? I just said I appreciate the explanation
@tinalear Жыл бұрын
Dear Patrick, I know nothing about high finance--but I have money in banks and I know that when people get really scared, it causes trouble. Your video helped bring the nuance, and more "plain and simple" information to help people like me. Blessings to you, my friend.
@Thisismyyoutubechannel69 Жыл бұрын
Patrick? Or Richard?
@method341 Жыл бұрын
Holy crap, I remember buying Silvergate in 2020 and sold it at $120. I felt like an idiot for selling too early after seeing it go to $200 but I'm glad I stayed away from it after watching it implode the past twelve months. I would imagine a lot of HODLers got burnt.
@moccamixer Жыл бұрын
Why would you be an idiot if you earned money 🤷🏻♂️
@RN-zb7li Жыл бұрын
@@moccamixer cuz they felt like they could've earned more had they sold at 200
@TheGreyGhost_of43rd Жыл бұрын
@@moccamixer🤦♂️ not to good with human thoughts and feelings huh
@ConfusedKev Жыл бұрын
GG WP
@harrywoodman2988 Жыл бұрын
Celebrate getting out when you did, that was wise. Hype is a very dangerous thing to believe in!
@patriciaa4451 Жыл бұрын
I feel like I'm living in the montage at the beginning of a movie about a financial collapse.
@jmitterii2 Жыл бұрын
LOL! No, that was nothing. This is going to be even more spectacular.
@Doge_Of_Wallstreet Жыл бұрын
More like a civilizational collapse. Soon we all be driving muscle cars and wearing cool leather suits.
@Studeb Жыл бұрын
They all start the same, because nobody is ever held responsible. It makes no sense for them to follow the law, cause that makes them less money and they are always bailed out anyway. In 12 years we will be saying the same thing, and so many people will be completely stunned that it happened.
@jz4461 Жыл бұрын
@Studeb What? These banks are taken over by the FDIC, and all their assets are sold off to pay back their customers. The stockholders lose all their money, and all employees lose their jobs. I get that this system isn't perfect, but the CEO and stockholders are NOT getting a handout from the government.
@nothingisawesome Жыл бұрын
thats pretty dramatic lol. especially for an event we'll likely forget about in a week
@anthonyrussell5718 Жыл бұрын
It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. Else what happened with the Dollar recently is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.
@roseroland1998 Жыл бұрын
I believe SVB was making an effort to reorganize their bond portfolio. Yes, they would lose money if they sold their low-yielding bonds. But, they were trying to make up for it by repurchasing bonds on the open market at the higher interest rate.
@louisairvin3052 Жыл бұрын
@thelastunicorn1987 I've been able to scale from $50K to $189k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns.
@Curbalnk Жыл бұрын
@@louisairvin3052 've been looking into the potential of speaking with consultants lately. I require direction because I am an adult, but I wonder how really beneficial their services might be.
@louisairvin3052 Жыл бұрын
@@Curbalnk Finding financial advisors like KAITLIN ROSE STERNBERG who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
@Curbalnk Жыл бұрын
@@louisairvin3052 Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
@pablouribe1522 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for explaining what is going on. There is no better place to get clear and trustworthy information than The Plain Bagel.
@Reklaw- Жыл бұрын
The people trying to calm things down by saying more bank fails are unlikely are the same ones that said SVB was OK not too long ago. Clown Crammer from CNBC just weeks ago emphatically stated SVB was not a risk.....he also said the same of Bears Stearns just days before it folded....when will Crammer get sued to the poor house and prevented from ruining people's lives?
@kickassandchewbubblegum639 Жыл бұрын
it wasnt people doing bank runs tho...thats not why this is happening...bank runs are a symptom of the problem... the problem is greed and hubris....all the ceos took their money out weeks before this so its not the bank runs doing this...thats the narrative of the far left....reality shows otherwise we had this problem in 1929 and it surprises me nobody talks about 1929 right now...they only bring up 08 which wasnt that far back...this is more akin to 29 than 08 were going to see bread lines and soup lines... if you look at the bank sell off its all 60 70 80 in the red..monday wil be a dark dark blood bath of sell offs...its going to be nasty af.........
@piuthemagicman Жыл бұрын
Also Patrick Boyle - top quality nonsensational financial knowledge spiced with Patrick's driest of dry top quality humor!
@Fractal_32 Жыл бұрын
@@piuthemagicman both are great! :)
@zteaxon7787 Жыл бұрын
I think not. He's juwish. They're not exactly famous for trustworthyness. He also blamed the failiure of a bank on people collecting their money back. And not on embezzlement and gambling away deposits as if the bank is a ponzi.
@nuprophett Жыл бұрын
If I wasn’t already subscribed, I would have done it again after this video. You’re a national (and international) treasure.
@jewels3846 Жыл бұрын
You made me check and so I subbed! Thanks for the reminder comment
@allensu9363 Жыл бұрын
It seems like the root of the problem was SVB’s failure to hedge interest rate risks with duration. It makes me wonder if other banks also messed up their durations too.
@catriona_drummond Жыл бұрын
Absolutely. I wonder what their risk management was doing ALL THROUGH 2022, were they on holiday. The central banks actually reacted pretty slow first, to the inflation. If you held bonds, you could see this coming from a mile away. They could have hedged or diversified. And shifted to more class A liquidity assets, as they were already losing lots of deposits during 2022 as the balance sheet in the video showed. Running out of cash and class a in a bank run is no shame, but not preparing, is. But I guess, hedging, diversifying, restructuring the portfolio costs money and takes the cherry off the top of your profitability and off your bonuses too. So you just go on, drive it into the ground and scramble to get your bonus, hours before getting shut down. Perfectly executed. A beautiful lecture in American Manager Capitalism.
@souvikrc4499 Жыл бұрын
@@catriona_drummond No doubt that SVB's top execs dropped the ball on risk management. The top execs ignored warnings from employees to buy shorter term bonds, and instead doubled-down on high yielding assets. And SVB's CEO, Greg Becker, lobbied Congress back in 2018 to exempt banks like his from Dodd-Frank regulations, saying: “Without such changes, SVB likely will need to divert significant resources from providing financing to job-creating companies in the innovation economy to complying with enhanced prudential standards and other requirements...Given the low risk profile of our activities and business model, such a result would stifle our ability to provide credit to our clients without any meaningful corresponding reduction in risk.”
@reviewchan9806 Жыл бұрын
Let this be a lesson that these "people" aren't financial geniuses. They just got to their position by bribes, nepotism, and connections. And then virtue signal about how smart they are for pulling their own bootstraps while the rest of us work.
@ancillarity Жыл бұрын
@Catriona I am guessing they were just way too specialized, and their whole business model is specialization. It's too hard for them to specialize. So the fact that they failed can be argued as simply capitalism at work.
@hanliu7451 Жыл бұрын
Not necessary the duration. They could have done enough receive float to keep the book short, but still won’t stop deposit running off. Liquidity issue, given concentrated customer base. Things went wrong 3 years ago when surge deposit coming in, and they decided to invest in bond market.
@grapetoad6595 Жыл бұрын
With SVB, I was envisioning normal people doing a run on the bank, but then I realised it was *investors* withdrawing billions. Got to love them. Edit: I wonder how many bonuses the bank executives are still going to get despite running the bank into the ground
@MrSupernova111 Жыл бұрын
You should be asking how many people will be fired because their firms lost most of their cash held at SVB. Many of those firms won't be able to make payroll. But I supposed you don't care about that.
@royce9018 Жыл бұрын
normal people would need to show up in numbers of roughly the population of Rhode Island as a whole to make a difference.
@Seneric Жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 No, you dont get it. This NEEDS to happen. People need to learn that banks are NOT to big to fail, and they should be FAR more scrutinous with who they park their money with, how exposed they are, and what risks they carry. Its about damn time people stop treating capitalism and the stock exchange like its the goddamn casino.
@marianhunt8899 Жыл бұрын
Eye watering amount no doubt.
@jacobarcher923 Жыл бұрын
@@Seneric 2008 should have taught people that, any crash will be promptly forgotten as soon as someone finds a way to make money in a dodgy way again
@snaggiz Жыл бұрын
Ironic how a Swedish company called Alecta (who manage occupational pensions) actually shifted investment strategy relatively recently into focusing more on American banking which included, unfortunately, SVB. Apparently, individual people will barely notice a difference, if any at all on their pensions. But this highlights how remarkably large the reach the effects of these kinds of events has. There’s a dangerous amount of trust in these institutions to act responsibly and intelligently.
@sarowie Жыл бұрын
It is a very funny argument from investment bankers that when they "earn" money, they need bonuses. And when they perform "above average" on shrinking market, they need bonuses. And when they screw up "it makes a barely noticeable difference". I mean, to some extend, you need risk diversification and risk diversification naturally means taking on risks, but... how can investment bankers "earn" an above average salary, then bonuses on top and then claim "responsibility" while at the same time claiming "market forces" being in control of every down turn (ignoring the very fact that collectively, "investment bankers" are "the market forces")?
@JeffreyJefferson Жыл бұрын
@@sarowie because people are biased and don't want to attribute their success to luck.
@barbecueribs8130 Жыл бұрын
@@sarowie It doesn’t sound like you know what investment bankers do lol
@chicharito1548 Жыл бұрын
@@sarowie As far as I know, investment bankers just get laid off when they screw up.
@aaronhartman9793 Жыл бұрын
You nailed it Bagel - I work at SVB and my #1 focus now is to help my clients land on their feet. I can say that my own loan book was of utmost quality
@katrinabryce Жыл бұрын
The London branch has also collapsed, and that affects some of the companies we manage. They are certainly not the second largest bank to collapse in the UK, that I think was Halifax Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland was definitely the largest in the UK, and indeed company of any kind in the world to collapse.
@drpeterc12 Жыл бұрын
Yes but all our banks (except perhaps Barclays) are still technically bankrupt, but are all fortunately backed by HM Government and our money tree, so none will be allowed to ask for receivership.
@intruder313 Жыл бұрын
@@drpeterc12 the Magic Money Tree thank you!
@akkawowa Жыл бұрын
The BBC is reporting that the UK Gov is working out a plan to bail out the UK companies affected... it doesn't mention bailing out the bank though.
@usa91191 Жыл бұрын
US bank run start now!! Withdraw yr money and invest in house and property is the safest invest.
@Vee-jc1qh Жыл бұрын
@@drpeterc12 The Financial Services and Markets Bill started in the HoC and now at the Committee Stage in the HoL is worth a look. HM Government has never been tested, to date, in compensating individual personal deposits to the current amount of £85,000. Let's hope you are right that sufficient funds are directed to such individuals who do not hold private banking accounts whom, I'm sure would be first in the queue to be protected.
@piecake9173 Жыл бұрын
Excellent summary Richard, one minor point, silicone is the soft rubber material used in sealants and kitchen utensils while silicon is used for semiconductors
@unixtreme Жыл бұрын
I deal my pipes with chips.
@Belboz99 Жыл бұрын
I caught that one as well... quite the pet peeve of mine. Also, silicon is an element. I think the only one that irks me more is "duel-core", though at least now that multi-core CPU's are the mainstream that's become less frequent.
@OrangeFluffyCat Жыл бұрын
It was bothering me too
@gregz1235 Жыл бұрын
Finally, a common sense, "world isn't ending" explanation on the situation. Thank you!
@bc-guy852 Жыл бұрын
Thanks Richard - well done! I appreciate 'less fluff' in order to get this produced quickly. I am not in the finance industry nor am I a Tech Start-up so this is just 'general information' to me. This is developing so fast - and has such powerful implications for the future of MANY financial organizations - that I thought there was only one bank that failed - names too close and SO FAST! Thank you!
@craigdelaune6768 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for putting this into perspective. I'm in school for finance and people are always looking to say the next collapse is coming. Love your videos!!!
@Aaron-wq3jz Жыл бұрын
@@markc1682 it’s not that hard
@vitordeoliveira6139 Жыл бұрын
It must be extremely horrible to have money sometimes for a lifetime in a bank and simply lose it. I hope that all people manage to get their money back, and that this doesn't spread to other banks.
@zegur21 Жыл бұрын
Allocating (not having all your eggs in one basket) is the lesson learn here
@TheSuperBoyProject Жыл бұрын
@@zegur21 the lesson is clearly to never trust fractional reserve banking. When banks fail, people are free
@saulserano4292 Жыл бұрын
This wasn’t a traditional bank. Most are far above the fdic limits.
@ultimaIXultima Жыл бұрын
@@Morcap Complete fearmongering nonsense... "All the banks" aren't involved in crypto, and "all the banks" aren't servicing venture capitalists. The average person hold *FAR* less than $250k in their account, which is what the FDIC *actually* insures. Both of these banks have unwound in more-or-less the honorable way. There does not appear to be any fraud at this point. Businesses fail, and neither of these banks were entwined so deep into the US economy their loss will affect much more than a quarter's balance sheet.
@Morcap Жыл бұрын
@@ultimaIXultima The reason SVB collapsed is a systemic failure and not because some investment in some crypto Ponzi or some bad loaning practice. It was because a critical mass of depositors just purely asked for their deposits back. And that is every single bank Achille's. Nothing can save a bank - anywhere in the world - if a number of people above bank' cash capacity will withdraw at the same time.
@YourUncle8501 Жыл бұрын
REMINDER: On March 26th, 2020 the Federal Reserve FOMC's change of bringing the bank reserve requirements from 10% to 0% became effective. This means that banks could and may loan 100% of deposits and keep $0 in the vault leaving them highly exposed to a bank run. This is how a significant amount of money is entered into supply, through fractional reserve banking... the entire banking system is VERY fragile. Over $250k? You're an uninsured lender not a depositor
@snowblind. Жыл бұрын
So then it can't be called fractional reserve if there is now no reserve...
@runescapefan0001 Жыл бұрын
@@snowblind. 0/1 is a fraction
@onothankyou Жыл бұрын
This conflates two concepts (reserves vs insurance) and misses an important piece of context. The Reserve also went to an "abundant reserve" model while also requiring the banks to "show their work" on the loans. There is fragility, as there will be in a highly developed financial system, but you are choosing fear rather than understanding.
@YourUncle8501 Жыл бұрын
@@onothankyou We understand that a bank will have a natural tendency to loan out a larger ratio of deposits, if allowed, in order to make more money, as they are a for profit business. It would be naïve to trust lenders to act in good faith always if you look at history, especially GFC (The "show your work" and "Oh please act in good faith" is worthless unless regular audits are expected and penalties are severe). FDIC insurance exists but doesn't not protect >$250k in deposits meaning they are exposed. We are seeing massive transfers (Large account holders) to the big banks as we speak, "just in case", which is a bank run of some magnitude. Will it get bad enough to implode? Probably not as the Fed and Gov will always step in to save their own
@BenjaminLemons Жыл бұрын
@@runescapefan0001 Simplified to 0.
@stephenbeyer4315 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for that straight forward, no frills explanation. As soon as I saw you had posted this video I thought "uh huh! now this will explain what's happening with none of the crap." Please keep up your high quality videos. 5 stars!
@_Dumb_Answers Жыл бұрын
Thanks for covering this. My mum called me in a panic and asked me about this because she's worried about her finances with Chase. She's a health worker, worked hard all her life, and just minds her own business. Whoever told her about this and insinuated that this will lead to a wide collapse really needed their basic econ knowledge checked.
@rairaur2234 Жыл бұрын
The amount of people comparing it to 2008 makes me question whether the public has already forgotten what even happened in 2008 and what were the reasons for it. Such an amount of worry just for the sake of being worried.
@cursethesemetalhans Жыл бұрын
There is a huge misallocation of capital in the system just like '08 in housing, I just don't think we know where it's going to blow yet.
@davidpolk6373 Жыл бұрын
@@cursethesemetalhansthis is definitely a different situation the op is right worrying because it’s fun to do is the current trend
@choccolocco Жыл бұрын
@@cursethesemetalhans And in 2008, everyone seems to forget that banks giving mortgages to ppl that couldn’t pay, KNOWING they were going to default, then bundled the bad loans and sold them to unknowing institutions. It was a scam from criminal lenders from the beginning.
@anaruizguti Жыл бұрын
@@cursethesemetalhans replacement of fiat ...
@mkl5448 Жыл бұрын
I feel the average person has no real clue on what is going on, or what went on. They just see news clips and take it as the gospel, instead of actually reading about why. Things are more knee jerk than ever, and that's really not helpful.
@IncognitoFinance Жыл бұрын
I always appreciate the calm tone and level-headedness of Richard's video. Not trying to spook investors, but just provide clarity on the news.
@lilytea3 Жыл бұрын
0:15: 📉 Two U.S. banks, Silvergate Capital Corp and Silicon Valley Bank, experienced significant financial troubles and collapse. 3:29: 💸 Silvergate Bank suffered a significant loss due to a run on cryptocurrency exchanges and customer withdrawals, resulting in a loss of $718 million in the last quarter of 2022. 6:57: 📉 Rising interest rates make it harder for venture capitalists and startups to access capital, causing panic in the venture capital space. 10:19: 📉 Concerns arise over the impact of the collapse of Silvergate Bank on the US financial system and the potential for a financial crisis. 13:27: 💥 The collapse of cryptocurrencies and the harsh venture capital environment has led to a sell-off in the cryptocurrency space and devastating consequences for venture-backed tech companies. Recap by Tammy AI
@alexaa928 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for the timestamps~
@ambition112 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for saving my time! Love this summary tool! where you download this Tammy AI?
@advancetotabletop5328 Жыл бұрын
Invest in a “bank” known for startup and VC’s during a recession when IPO’s are at a 30-year low. What could possibly go wrong?
@advancetotabletop5328 Жыл бұрын
SVB was “not large enough to fail”. Back during the previous financial crisis, the USA bailed out numbers us banks which would have failed. So, historically, SVB is one of the “largest” banks that failed, but it could have been bailed out like other banks. SVB has been taken over by FDIC, and *deposits* are still insured.
@azeria1 Жыл бұрын
@@advancetotabletop5328 well yes and no up to 250.000 is but since it’s mostly for businesses they will have a lot more then 250.000
@TheNaldiin Жыл бұрын
I think they looked at the industries of their clients and thought that was diversified. That they were almost all tied to the start-up VC ecosystem never crossed their minds.
@willdehne1 Жыл бұрын
This reminds me of 2008. We were invested with Merrill Lynch, Bank of America and AIG. Long story short. The financial advisers we talked to at these companies had no idea what was coming down on us. I had to explain to them what a "SWAP" is. ML got caught by abuses of speculators in their London office. It went down fast. This feels similar.
@slofty Жыл бұрын
"Comming" lol.
@0utc4st1985 Жыл бұрын
Yeah, people forget that 2008 started with Bear Stearns and other niche institutions. While it could stay contained, because of credit tightening overall I'd be surprised if it did. We'll see in the Fall.
@willdehne1 Жыл бұрын
@@slofty Yeah. Did not use spell check.
@yuglesstube Жыл бұрын
In my experience, financial advisors are undereducated fools who are programmed to sell products. The tragedy is that their superiors in the C Suite aren't much better.
@willdehne1 Жыл бұрын
@@yuglesstube This is true to a point. I am a specialist in robotics and automation. It takes all I got to keep up. Knowing various financial instruments is beyond my skills and I need to get advise where I can. But, you are correct except I know less.
@romanroyer7057 Жыл бұрын
No shock, no fire, no exaggeration. Thanks for the restraint, Plain Bagel
@ickster23 Жыл бұрын
What happens now? Well, for the people that led these institutions to collapse, I forecast large bonuses and probably another seven to eight figure position on another board.
@kumarj4693 Жыл бұрын
True words
@hahaha9076 Жыл бұрын
Great explanation. It's a bloody relief to have someone speak authoritivly about economics without the bs emotive driving drama. I'm subbed bro. 👍
@ChrisMillerLite Жыл бұрын
Thanks for explaining without sensationalism, doom and gloom, and clickbait thumbnails which is 99% of finance related channels on KZbin.
@pretzelandmustard Жыл бұрын
I want thank you for your calm, straightforward, and thoughtful analysis. I passed by many videos in my search [including big media networks and other clickbait] looking for you because I wanted an honest, analytical take on the situation. Thank you!
@JakeBroe Жыл бұрын
Silicon and Silicone are two different things. I had fun hearing you say Silicone, lol. Silicone Valley has to be in Las Vegas or Hollywood.
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
Yeah I got it right the first time, and messed up later on in the video. In my defence, I filmed late last night after a day of working 😅
@zczar333 Жыл бұрын
Great video. It’s so refreshing to hear economic news in a concise, straightforward way without the drama. Plus, I always learn something new with each video. Thank you!
@michaelarriaga6154 Жыл бұрын
I was waiting for someone to explain ! Nobody better then the plain bagel! Been researching these failures all day!
@ctg4818 Жыл бұрын
Bad businesses are SUPPOSED TO FAIL
@Palo-jm7xc Жыл бұрын
I think this is one of the major problems with this world along with no accountability. If people are given golden parachutes then they won't learn from their mistakes. I believe a lot more is to come due to the great can kick of 2008.
@QGfk1 Жыл бұрын
@@Palo-jm7xc honestly it's not as if things were much different before the intense financialization of the world economy. financial crises were more frequent and brutal pre-20th century. there's no such thing as a capitalist economy that doesn't go through cyclical crises
@realnapster1522 Жыл бұрын
At 200 billion in assets it’s a very big bank and if they can’t pay the depositors it will be a huge hit to US financial system because people will lose trust in the system. It will cause more bank runs and then we will have a real financial crisis like 1929.
@the1exnay Жыл бұрын
Are they not being allowed to fail? I hope they are, and i hope the people at the top don’t find a way to profit off failure.
@JoseGomez-vr6lh Жыл бұрын
This was caused by high interest rates by the fed not by bad banking.
@jeffreylevin9728 Жыл бұрын
PB - some corrections. SVB was not shut down by the FDIC. The bank was shut down by the California Bank regulatory which named the FDIC as receiver. Plus for you a deeper dive. Basically for all of 2022, no chief risk officer. Think about that for a bank with over a 100 billion in assets. Next, the "run" as you indicated was entirely corporate. When the bank announced that it had sold $5 bb in treasuries and lost $1.8 bb, corporate customers went back and looked at their 10K and noticed that the held to maturity portfolio of R/C MBS and treasuries had an unrealized loss in excess of 17 bb. THeir NBV was only $16 bb. They than ran for the exits, all at ounce. However, they had plenty of risk officers around the world it would seem really concerned about things like equity in meetings and global warming, but not soo concerned about doing any hedging of their 100 billion plus portfolio. Tha's right, they were completely unhedged. Again, no chief risk officer in 2022. They had more important things to do.
@umiluv Жыл бұрын
They had to meet those DEI quotas. 🙄
@BodybuildingNews Жыл бұрын
Brother, I just sent a huge invoice payment to a company that uses them. I’m sitting at home watching this video right now and fortunately because of you I was able to get in contact with my bank and cancel it before it got cleared on Monday. Thank you.
@jwal1992 Жыл бұрын
My girlfriend’s brother in law was a part of the tech layoffs at Cap One’s West Creek Campus recently. It’s wild seeing the tech world in a downward spiral.
@Troy_Built Жыл бұрын
This is the second go around for a lot of us watching this happen to tech.
@playtester6635 Жыл бұрын
Yup, not the first time, it'll bounce bank in time. Just part of life.
@kkgt6591 Жыл бұрын
It's wonderful that no youtubers, no fundamental anyalyts were able to predict the bank run. Says something that how much all these people are aware of it. It's so so easy to start making videos and do explanations after the fact.
@rikilshah Жыл бұрын
One of the ways from here for SVB is to have some large bank to step in, acquire SVB at peanuts and provide customers the full confidence. Big Bank could halt customer withdrawals by imposing daily limits for certain time periods and meanwhile slowly offloading bonds. Loss made in bonds would be the cost of acquisition for the parent bank.
@rutherfordbhayes423 Жыл бұрын
Don’t give them any ideas !
@trevorsabourin6564 Жыл бұрын
I expect that's exactly what we'll see. The same way Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch were taken over by the much stronger JP Morgan and BofA
@Sacto1654 Жыл бұрын
I wouldn’t be surprised that BlackRock, PIMCO, State Street or Vanguard figure out a way to get a safe takeover of SVB.
@MrSupernova111 Жыл бұрын
Yeah, until its your money at stake then you'll want government bailouts. GTFH
@darksoul1381 Жыл бұрын
@@rutherfordbhayes423 This happened many times since the dawn of American financial history. This isn't exactly a new idea.
@EatCoffee Жыл бұрын
Banks that gamble on crypto or NFTs SHOULD NOT be bailed out with taxpayer dollars
@newagain9964 Жыл бұрын
The only banks that should be insured be the govt are public banks…but we don’t have any in USA. Save one.
@sznikers Жыл бұрын
Excepy they didn't, they died because they invested heavily in government bonds which are treated as 100% safe assets.
@thebaker8637 Жыл бұрын
None of these banks invested money into crypto, they took deposits from companies whose cashflow correlated with low interest rate (ie startups or crypto companies) and invested a lot of it into assets (say 5yr govt bonds) whose market value drops when interest rates rise. The government guarantees you’ll get the money back after 5yrs, but if someone gave you $6bn in deposits and you put $5bn of it into these bonds, you can’t wait 5 years and have to sell them at a loss if people start withdrawing more than $1bn. This is the same as if you took most of your savings and put it into a 3-year savings account and suddenly lost your job two years in. Yeah you’ll get the money back in a year but that does not help you if you run out of money from your checking account - you’re still insolvent because you won’t be able to pay me if you owe me money.
@thebaker8637 Жыл бұрын
@@newagain9964 I think what you mean is 15% of the liabilities were insured. That would mean that of the money the depositors kept in the bank, the government’s insurance scheme for depositors would still leave 85% of the money unavailable. This is the same as with any other bank, if you hold money in a bank account, and that bank becomes insolvent, the FDIC will make sure you’ll be able to withdraw up to $250k no matter what, even if the bank blew all your money on hookers the government will still pay out of pocket up to $250k of your balance that you can withdraw. This is a good thing because the presence of this insurance makes it incredibly unlikely a bank run can happen. In most cases most people have less than that amount with a bank, meaning rumors of insolvency will not cause a stampede to withdraw money or lose it all, which is what ultimately causes the run to begin with. In this case most of the clients had far more than $250k in the bank, meaning this help will only recover ~15% of the money people put into the bank. Mind you this is not a bank bailout, if you had money invested in shares of SVB or held its bonds, you are going to lose your money in all likelihood. This is about depositors, ie companies banking with SVB who held money there.
@IamGrimalkin Жыл бұрын
No-one cares about Silvergate. The thing everyone's eyes are on right now is SVB.
@medinadan Жыл бұрын
How elegantly put despite the fact that so many people are about to fall into financial despair and probably will never recover from it... Plain & Simple
@MrStarfishPrime Жыл бұрын
Good explanation. But as someone who worked in financial regulation I think there should be questions to the regulators on the stress testing and LCR submissions for SVB.
@fool9111z Жыл бұрын
Or why fed reserve didn’t step in and buy the government bonds for cash ? There should be standard procedures for dealing with ban runs, esp when there are high quality assets.
@katarh Жыл бұрын
My spouse mentioned that SBV fell just below the threshold for stricter stress testing, due to the weakening of Frank-Dodd in 2018. Yet another thing to blame on the 2016 elections.
@AgentDoubleOSeven77 Жыл бұрын
Page 87 of their most recent 10-K. "As a banking organization, our liquidity is subject to supervision by our banking regulators. Because we are a Category IV organization with less than $250 billion in average total consolidated assets, less than $50 billion in average weighted short-term wholesale funding and less than $75 billion in cross-jurisdictional activity, we currently are not subject to the Federal Reserve’s LCR or NSFR requirements, either on a full or reduced basis."
@markhathaway9456 Жыл бұрын
@@katarh The reduction was Republican policy that a couple of Republican senators (probably Manchin and Sinema, though I'm not sure) also supported. I wouldn't be surprised if some rich people bought those votes because I don't have much belief that R senators are smart enough or would have any incentive to go for those changes to the law on their own.
@jasonkim1069 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the info Richard. Although one thing that could have been mentioned that could make this video more useful is about exposures that financial institutions hold on U.S gov bond. It's an asset that most financial institutions hold certain amount for 'risk free' return. There may be more financial institutions with unrealized loss on gov bond that can be later revealed, which may lead to another bankruns.
@TheMinimumPC Жыл бұрын
Also, you said that these banks serve Silicon Valley startups. Those startups can be quite susceptible to failure even without external factors like this… We may see a lot of startup failures out of this
@sigmundfreud7903 Жыл бұрын
Bagel and Patrick are two of the most helpful financial channels I watch.
@costanzojr Жыл бұрын
Always timely, insightful, and factual. Thank you, Richard, for your work.
@hellize4212 Жыл бұрын
I have the feeling, that he is holding some awful information back
@elizabethdouglas4730 Жыл бұрын
It hurt that banks are crashing.
@elizabethdouglas4730 Жыл бұрын
I will try and invest in stocks and crypto.
@javierarturo9168 Жыл бұрын
Success depend on the action or step you take to achieve it. Show me a man who has no investments I will tell you how soon he will go broke. Investment is building a safe Heaven for the future....
@sophiaalex802 Жыл бұрын
To earn more you need to have multiple diversified means of income so investing is a way to earn more money once it is profitable...
@johnnymaxwell8284 Жыл бұрын
If you find a way multiply your money one day you’ll wake up and realize that the money you thought you had is gone .investment is the key!!!
@angelamorris478 Жыл бұрын
@@johnnymaxwell8284 I agree with you friend investing is the key to maintaining your financial longevity and not just investment , but an investment with guaranteed profitability..
@manonamission2000 Жыл бұрын
Things could have been worse: CDOs for sub-prime mortgages on land in the metaverse
@hinpoppo9185 Жыл бұрын
The fact that this is almost in the realm of possibility with NFTs is shocking and alarming LOL
@QGfk1 Жыл бұрын
if it wasn't for the downturn and interest rate hikes things probably would have gotten to this point after a few years.
@zbtyn Жыл бұрын
Bruh 😭😭😭😭😭😭
@mikepepper8395 Жыл бұрын
Omg!!! That made me spit my coffee out. 🤣🤣🤣
@mendozakoby Жыл бұрын
Let's take it one further: credit default swaps on CDOs for sub-prime mortgages on land in the metaverse 🤣
@wealthbytes Жыл бұрын
Thanks for putting this out. This was a very good, clear, and non-panic video that breaks it down. Well done!
@BA-ji1zh Жыл бұрын
Your channel is pure gold and you deserve more. Idk even know what you got, bruh. I just know you deserve more than whatever it is.
@amicaaranearum Жыл бұрын
The risk for Silicon Valley Bank is the potential “fake-it-till-you-make-it” accounting used by many tech startups. I don’t know how aggressively the bank’s auditors reviewed the books of the startups before approving the loans.
@IamGrimalkin Жыл бұрын
The issue with SVB wasn't VC loans, it was VC depositors, who proceeded to bank run them. Also, they invested large amount is very long-durariom debt, which got his hard by high interest rates.
@petiertje Жыл бұрын
This reminds me a bit of the DSB in the Netherlands. That one had a bank run too which ultimately put the bank out of business. It was/is a fishy story from the start with the Dutch Central Bank doing nothing to contain rampant rumors in media and even contributed to them in a way.
@skullsarecute Жыл бұрын
One thing this highlighted for me with Etsy apparently being a SVB customer is how much the average American isn’t all covered by FDIC anymore. So many startups now deal with the transfer of money between payer and seller for goods and services in various ways complete with holding that money for extended periods of time, but they are not a bank.
@relevantinformation6655 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for covering this situation straightforwardly as it unfolds. The network media would have you think that there should be a run on every bank - this to drum up viewership. The selective data being used to cover this situation by the mainstream news channels is as ‘sensational’ as the political coverage by both sides. 🤨. Subscribed
@nerdobject5351 Жыл бұрын
Great explanation. My coworkers and I (in tech) were trying to break this down and we came to same conclusion that is not 2007 2.0. But don’t tell that to main stream media. It’s the end of times there.
@mmabagain Жыл бұрын
Yep. MSM is fear porn.
@TheNaldiin Жыл бұрын
They're waiting for 2024 election drama to kick off and buy them a few more years. Gotta burn what fuel is on hand until then.
@chevonne24 Жыл бұрын
I feel like I get the gist of what happened after watching your video, which is a stark contrast to another I tried to view that confused and worried me more than anything. Thanks!
@talyahr3302 Жыл бұрын
The biggest concern is the clients of the bank having to also go under because they can't get their money and having to fire a lot of people all at once because their company failed due to the bank failing and being run off of debt/loans with said bank (SVB).
@lakeguy65616 Жыл бұрын
The prices of bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates. The recent rapid rise in interest rates has caused bond prices to fall. SVB failed because a large portion of its bond portfolio was "marked to market" and they were forced to recognize losses. The question that is unanswered is, are there other banks with bond portfolio losses that will soon have to be recognized? Was SVB a one-off or do we have a real problem in the banking sector? The Fed was expected to raise interest rates another 50 basis points next week to fight inflation. Will they still raise rates as expected? Or will they allow inflation to remain high in order to save the bond portfolios of banks nationwide? The Fed is facing a real dilemma!
@HotDogLaws Жыл бұрын
There's a chart floating around of the net unrealized losses on the books of the big 4 banks. Its..... extremely concerning to say the least
@cvshav Жыл бұрын
The recognition of losses is irrelevant, proceeds from the liquidation of those assets were insufficient to cover liabilities
@realnapster1522 Жыл бұрын
Big banks are fine. It’s the smaller banks that can quickly go under and it will cause people to panic and multiple bank runs which can lead to major crisis.
@darksoul1381 Жыл бұрын
@@HotDogLaws None of them go far in excess of market cap like SIVB and bond losses are not likely to be realized being held to maturity whilst it may be a drag on their ROTCE. None of them did stupid shit like dumping the majority of deposits into long term MBS with 0 interest rate risk hedges. All banks are always subject to a risk of a bank run and that is why we always subject the biggest ones to stringent stress tests unlike SVB. The major difference is that they do not have a concentrated client base like SVB.
@NickOloteo Жыл бұрын
They need to do what it takes to stop inflation. You don’t want rampant inflation. If the government could get their shit together and ban stock buybacks, tax long term capital gains 25% on a million up to 50% on a billion, reduce defense spending, and lift the income cap on social security we could see progress with inflation declining but government just wants to spend…. And implement a 5% vacancy tax to punish the greedy corporations holding houses for no reason but to keep prices high.
@privacyvalued4134 Жыл бұрын
Good, level-headed observations. I started watching a couple of the fringe videos saying "the economy is going to collapse, go get your money out of the bank right now" videos, which will only incite panic. I think people should go watch the movie "It's a Wonderful Life" before attempting to extract their money from a bank to understand how bad a bank run is. Banks can generally handle a load of maybe 5% extraction at the most before serious problems kick in. So if some people take their money out, it's something that can be absorbed. If more than roughly 5% take their money out, that can't be absorbed as easily and runs the risk of collapsing the bank and that would cause far more problems, including triggering rampant global inflation, which would devalue the USD to nothing. The result would be a total disaster. If you want to point fingers, Peter Thiel is primarily to blame for SVB failing as he incited the panic. The FDIC should extract every last penny from him to help cover the losses.
@OutrageIsNow Жыл бұрын
But what if everyone else at my Bank pulls their money out before I can???
@leonardkellum6984 Жыл бұрын
that was a savings and loan bank in the movie, they were gobbled up by the big commercial banks., which is why no decent interest on savings accounts.
@rhaegoti Жыл бұрын
Quick question on FDIC insurance: Can a person/business have 2 or more accounts with the same bank in order to have more than $250,000 insured, or is it a maximum of $250,000 per bank? If it is per account like the FDIC webpage implies, wouldn't full insurance only be a matter of the time spent to create and manage multiple accounts?
@tylerpeterson4726 Жыл бұрын
It's $250k per account type. A checking account is one account type, with a savings account being another account type. So having a checking account and a savings account would provide up to $500k in insured deposits, but 2 checking accounts would only be $250k. However, the insurance is on a per bank basis. If you have both a checking and savings account at 5 banks, that's $2.5 million in insured funds. I used to invest with Betterment and their cash sweep program would deposit your savings into checking accounts at multiple banks for up to $1 million in FDIC insured deposits. Why there isn't a fintech company that networks together 100 banks to offer FDIC insurance of $25 million per client, I don't know.
@rhaegoti Жыл бұрын
@@tylerpeterson4726 Thank you - that makes a lot more sense than how I thought it worked. That also sounds like an idea for a good business plan :)
@stephenhanna9677 Жыл бұрын
This was video outdated within 24 hours. We are now up to 3 banks closed in 5 days. Signature Bank, also closed by regulators, had over $110 Billion in assets which is the third largest bank closure in history.
@MrSupernova111 Жыл бұрын
lol
@nixielee Жыл бұрын
A fresh video on derivatives would be interesting. A lot of different opinions out there in regards to how exposed the big players are to mortgage-backed securities, credit swaps, and collateralized debt obligations. Probably very hard to find out for real.
@GentlemansCombatives Жыл бұрын
Wait, didn't exposure to those happen like 14 years ago in some sort of financial crisis, in 2008?
@Croolsby Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@mavfin8720 Жыл бұрын
SVB had no 'normal little people' cushion of smaller (insured) deposits, since it was built around venture capital people, and I think 89% of the accounts were too big to be insured...so when the run came, there was no cushion. Usual banks would not have failed in this particular case, as they would have had the insured cushion that wouldn't have run so quickly.
@realnapster1522 Жыл бұрын
That’s a great point. They need to publish details for all major banks and expose what percentage of assets are fdic insured.
@snowblind. Жыл бұрын
Doesn't matter. Read up on metropolitan mortgage.
@atkim122 Жыл бұрын
Should we be concerned about banks that have recently been offering above-market sweetheart rate CDs (e.g. Capital One's 5% 11-month CD)? They do that when they need a short-term infusion of new depositors and their cash so I wondered if they're on shaky ground similar to SVB.
@fred89pj Жыл бұрын
Hopefully not. I just put 50k into a CD account
@dylanmanka8795 Жыл бұрын
@@fred89pj USA CDs are FDIC insured for up to $250k.
@fred89pj Жыл бұрын
@@dylanmanka8795 good
@stevenglowacki8576 Жыл бұрын
One might ask, "Why don't these companies have tons of different bank accounts at different banks so as to get more protection from the FDIC and avoid a concentration of credit risk?" The main reason behind this I suspect is the slow time to clear payments between banks and the hassle of trying to give different vendors different banking information in order to be sure that you have enough money in the account that you give them so the bill gets paid. Because they can't instantaneously transfer the money or demand that customers pay them RIGHT NOW, they have to have a bunch of slack in the system because they can't predict which banks are going to have enough money to cover the bills they're trying to pay. This means they have to somewhat centralize operations, which means a lot of cash in a single bank.
@brinistaco1970 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for being so level headed and explaining so well. I hope more watch this. Confidence and security are truly necessary to avoid more runs. Kudos to the FDIC for stepping in. The comment about "pulling us back from the edge" could have done without the nervous laugh! Actually, thought it was perfect. Great job as usual. I can always count on you.
@dlevi67 Жыл бұрын
If you look at the subtitles, there may be a reason for the nervous laugh.
@victorcates9330 Жыл бұрын
He didn't answer my lingering concern: should I pee myself from terror now or later?
@brinistaco1970 Жыл бұрын
@@victorcates9330 been peeing since 2008
@biswajoybhattacharjee1055 Жыл бұрын
The lehman bros energy is strong with this one
@TonyGonzales Жыл бұрын
No frills sure, but also straightforward and powerfully honest. Subbed.
@charlies418 Жыл бұрын
After the last financial crisis you would've thought that they'd have more safeguards in place. Just be careful where you invest your money because many banks have applied for a licence but not been granted it which means that they cannot provide cover for its depositors. What worries me is that Chase Bank is offering better interest rates than other banks - how is that possible?
@manonamission2000 Жыл бұрын
Check SEC filings of companies you hold stock in to see if they have loans with SVB...
@nicolatorbayuk6778 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video .. clear and descriptive .. thanks Plain Bagel ..
@WorldinRooView Жыл бұрын
Takes a special kind of someone to somehow outdo Well's Fargo in poor customer service.
@stapleman007 Жыл бұрын
If you are under the delusion that Well's Fargo can't out Well's Fargo itself, then I have a bridge in Crimea I'd like to sell you.
@NicholasLeader0 Жыл бұрын
‘Poor customer service’ - weird euphemism for fraud
@fabbz94 Жыл бұрын
Lol this wasn't customer service problem.
@stoundingresults Жыл бұрын
Fake Customers inventing service fees
@HydrogenAlpha Жыл бұрын
Oh goody - I've been looking forward to the Plain Bagel's take on all this... ...yup, that was great! I strongly suspected the breathless "holy flippity flip flop flap" (yes, you know who you are) guys were getting out in front of their skis on this.
@JGeMcL Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the update PB. I'm a retail banker and I know I'm going to be getting a ton of people asking about their accounts.
@sabrekai8706 Жыл бұрын
Confidence in the US government. Riiiiight. I haven't seen anything in several years that would have me trust the US government to do anything other than make endless mistakes.
@caryblack5985 Жыл бұрын
Then you should only take any salary or accept any payment in gold only. If you can't get that you should refuse all payments.
@mmabagain Жыл бұрын
So true!!!
@jamesmeow3039 Жыл бұрын
Wow, Bank Regulation is good? What a concept.
@Bekayvd Жыл бұрын
I really love your nuanced takes in a sea of drama and clickbait. Thanks for your amazing work!
@VincePolevault Жыл бұрын
People call you stupid for not using banks, but when a bank collapses everyone says "man that sucks. should have used this other bank instead." (Hopefully everyone that had $250,000 or less in those banks get all their money back before its needed/affects their lives negatively)
@SangoProductions213 Жыл бұрын
Well. Maybe it's a problem that there was so little that the bank had on hand?
@TheNaldiin Жыл бұрын
Fractional reserves aren't new or generally a problem. It is worth noting that SVB petitioned to get laws changed so that they didn't have to increase their reserve percentage as their size increased. They got the change in 2017, if memory serves.
@SangoProductions213 Жыл бұрын
@@TheNaldiin Exactly.
@Jos_Louis Жыл бұрын
I was waiting patiently for Richard to demystify what was going on with SVB since I had been reading about it for the last few days. As always, I am not disappointed waiting for his content summarizing everything quite succinctly :) !
@erikburzinski8248 Жыл бұрын
I took a two-week break from the news and this happened.
@donalodonoghue7554 Жыл бұрын
Don’t take anymore breaks. The economy will thank you.
@MrMLHoganjr Жыл бұрын
Now it’s three banks: SVB, Silvergate, and Signature.
@ahorrell Жыл бұрын
I love this channel. Dude is so level headed. I never feel like he's trying to sell me his merch or courses or speaking events. He just wants to give me good information
@rodneypennington1086 Жыл бұрын
Ask JP Morgan how many clients they advised to get their funds out of SVB before the run.
@JUBPerfect Жыл бұрын
So much better than other financial youtubers, Plain and simple just how we want it, no scare tactics just facts 💯💯
@LydiaKrow Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for this information. Very easy to understand, and appreciate the straightforward approach. It really means a lot to a layperson like myself to get this type of quality analysis in a manner I can understand. :)