Buying Bonds. Still Not Convinced I'm Doing the Right Thing! (Part 2)

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Two Sides Of FI

Two Sides Of FI

Күн бұрын

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@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 3 жыл бұрын
If you've already retired or are nearing your retirement date, how are you handling a fixed income allocation? Let us know in the comments!
@alexjefferson8981
@alexjefferson8981 2 жыл бұрын
Look at Celsius network. You can hold stablecoins at ~8%apy
@wineguy68
@wineguy68 3 жыл бұрын
24:45 very true. This is what makes consuming advice on the internet difficult. Some of us who are close to FIRE or already RE, may have a "non-standard" mix of assets. For example in my case we have a defined benefit pension with COLA in addition to a FatFire portfolio. While Pensions can go bust and are not 100% risk off, this still adds some level of guaranteed income that I think most in the FIRE community don't have. This does have a material impact on our asset allocation as it allows us to go a bit more risk on in our BOND/Stock ratio . The Bond allocation dilemma is a great topic and Im struggling the way Eric is on the Bond thing. The way I got past it was to look at the last decade of gains and just come to the understanding that while I may be forgoing some future equity gains, shifting that to Bonds locks in some stellar gains from the last 10 years to add some ballast to my overall portfolio.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Excellent points, Wade. Thanks so much for sharing. *Personal* finance is just that, right?
@ph5915
@ph5915 2 жыл бұрын
Hi guys! So I have issues with bonds/bond funds. When I rolled out of my 401K and pension into a Fidelity IRA, my advisor wanted me NOT to be in all equities, I told him about my misgivings about bonds and he showed me about MYGA's (Multi-Year-Guaranteed-Annuities). They are no-cost (to you) contracts with an insurance company (not subject to any market variations) and are the annuity world's versions of CD's, except they pay out higher interest rates (typically between 2-4%), and, you don't pay taxes on the interest every year (like is the case with CD's), only when you cash them in/withdraw. So in early 2019, I bought MYGA's @ 2.60% interest and they just gained along every business day their little increases, even when everything crashed in Feb/Mar 2020, not the MYGA's, they kept chugging along. Now the past many months with inflation, they are not keeping up, they are set contracts and these were 3 yr (although I could withdraw 10% after the 1st year). But that's not necessarily the point, the equities portion is the 'keep-ahead-of-inflation' part, the MYGA's are more "principle protection". Mine expires in Apr/May, and unless I discover something better, my current idea is to go with an MYGA ladder - say a 2-3-4-5 yr ladder, and I can decide to sell the 2 yr when it is up if I need the money, or roll it over to a new rung in the ladder. I've learned a lot about annuities from the Stan The Annuity Man website, booklets, podcasts, videos, and chats with Stan himself. There are a couple versions of annuities that are really very simple and straightforward, and those in my mind are the best types. Everything has its pluses and minuses...
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for sharing...Jason + I will be touching on SPIAs in a future ep as it's definitely one way to slice the transition planning! Cheers.../eric
@ph5915
@ph5915 2 жыл бұрын
@@TwoSidesOfFI Thanks, Eric! Yeah, SPIA's/DIA's are another one of the simplest/least cost annuities. One problem with them is they aren't typically bought for inflation protection - it can be done, but the payout is dramatically less. One way around that is to ladder SPIA's/DIA's. I am not currently contemplating these yet, even though I'm pretty sure I will not work again, it might be possible. Once the annuity income stream is "on" it's like a fire hose, you can't really turn it off. I will look forward to your video on this subject (as with any other video).
@hugocast
@hugocast 2 жыл бұрын
I am in my 30s so I plan on keeping a 90/10 portfolio for another decade or so. I totally get the appeal of doing a 70/30 or 60/40 split once you hit your FIRE number though. Thank you for the great content.
@sixstringsdaddy2477
@sixstringsdaddy2477 2 жыл бұрын
Discovered you guys recently and enjoying the videos. You don't need bonds in your taxable if you look at your portfolio as a whole. Have all your bonds in tax deferred. If you need to sell equity from brokerage, sell the equivalent $ in bonds in tax deferred and rebuy those same equities. This has the exact result on your portfolio but without having to carry bonds/taxes in taxable. Sounds like your tax deferred account is big enough to hold a sufficient mix of equity/fixed income to balance there.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Jason here - True. As we say often, money is fungible! That said, I like having some bonds in taxable as well because it's another flavor of optionality. But certainly, most of my allocation is in tax deferred accounts.
@ledonuthole
@ledonuthole 2 жыл бұрын
One possible way to value the passive income stream (to estimate how much of your bond allocation it could take up) would be to just assume it gets cut by 33% (or a larger amount to be conservative) and determine the size of a bond portfolio you would need to generate that income. Then you can back that amount out of your bond allocation.
@rpguitar
@rpguitar 2 жыл бұрын
I FIREd last year with about 5 years to bridge until age 59.5. My portfolio is about 52/45/3 split among taxable, tax-deferred, and cash. My taxable account is all equities, mostly dividend paying large cap stocks, and this provides a large portion of my income. I do sell shares to augment, but at a much slower rate thanks to these dividends. I have no bonds anywhere except hidden in a fund or two (i.e. VWELX). I am thinking this needs to change in my trad IRA at least, which I'm gradually converting to Roth over the next 17 years. But with interest rates about to go up, my current feeling is to wait until we've got a couple of quarters of hikes behind us before I make the switch. I will say that market conditions right now have shocked me into submission on a more conservative allocation - now I've just got to get there. I'm going to let my taxable ride, though. No selling except for income - it just doesn't make sense to incur any more tax than necessary.
@rogercallnan6560
@rogercallnan6560 2 жыл бұрын
It would be interesting to hear a follow-up to this show. Your rebalancing timing (by chance) couldn't have been better and it would be interesting to hear your views on bonds now. RC
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Hi, Roger- New episode tomorrow we speak about this....cheers, Eric
@thejusticejen
@thejusticejen 3 жыл бұрын
I LOVE this series because it’s so relevant to those of us who are so close to being fully FIRE. Please invite Rob Berger or Kitses on your podcast to discuss this. It’s very difficult to transition away from an ultra aggressive portfolio to a balanced portfolio that seems to be less performance optimized. But the data shows that for the outsized risk, it just doesn’t seem worth the small marginal increase in performance over a longer span of time. Berger’s discussions have convinced me that rebalancing is a superior methodology over the 3-year bucket strategy. Kitses’ work also has me swayed that I shouldn’t be more than 75% in stocks. 70/30 is probably the right mix but bond investing feels so labor intensive unless going with a total bond index (yuck). 60/40 feels too conservative for me (I’m 48). I’m also 50/50 in pre-tax/qualified portfolios vs. taxable brokerage accounts. Will to take a hard look at that as well. Our 401(k) and traditional IRAs are too sizable to do huge chunks of Roth conversions. Will need 5-10 years to fully convert.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks so much! We're so appreciative of your support. If you've got any sway with such high caliber guests we won't turn down the help ;) You're 100% right re: the difficulty as well as the risk-based rationale. Thankfully, we've both come to our senses and moved to more appropriate allocations at this point. To your point about rebalancing, we're fans of Kitces' point: "as long as [bucket strategies] are implemented along with rebalancing, their results are exactly the same. And if clients are more comfortable with bucketing strategies - if only because they appeal more naturally to our tendency towards mental accounting - then so much the better. " It's not an either/or in our minds. So I think we're on the same page there! www.kitces.com/blog/managing-sequence-of-return-risk-with-bucket-strategies-vs-a-total-return-rebalancing-approach/ Best wishes to you on your own journey! Sounds to us like you're set up for tons of success.
@thejusticejen
@thejusticejen 2 жыл бұрын
@@TwoSidesOfFI Gentlemen, I love this response with the citation to the Kitces article. I'm agonizing along with Eric and haven't yet eased up on my 95/5 portfolio. It's hard to do it for your own portfolio, but you understand the wisdom of it and can easily recommend it for someone else. I have even asked my 76-year old father's portfolio manager to increase his stock allocation to 70/30 (or 66/34) because my dad was at the wrong end of the pie (20/80 stock to bonds). I would love to see more episodes about specific draw down strategies. Fritz is a great resource for this (will definitely be buying his book), but other than him, nearly all of the FIRE influencers are in the accumulation phase (easy peasy) and don't have much to contribute regarding the actual mechanics of retiring. I tried to retire in 2021, but my wife isn't ready to pull the plug. So, I'm going to use 2022 as a cushion building year and will work to reallocate my accounts without triggering too much tax. I have positions from the dot com bubble that are basically all profit and a couple bucks of basis.
@rewsky
@rewsky 2 жыл бұрын
What's problematic or wrong about a total bond index?
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
@@rewsky There's nothing wrong, and this isn't investment advice. Eric and I both hold them. However, some would suggest that Treasuries (often intermediate term) are the better option. Bond indices generally contain a healthy allocation of corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities. These are certainly higher risk for a variety of reasons, though also potentially higher return.
@thejusticejen
@thejusticejen 2 жыл бұрын
@@rewsky unlike a passive stock index, a passive total bond index will underperform an active bond index run by a good fund manager. It’s so much work to find the right bond fund for you. The easy path is to go with a passive total bond fund but in low interest rate periods, the performance has been underwhelming.
@richardh3587
@richardh3587 3 жыл бұрын
One thing to keep in mind about bonds (or any other non equity piece of your portfolio) is that the sum is more than the parts. That’s because diversity increases your risk adjusted return (due to not being highly correlated). One way that non equities can punch above their weight is due to rebalancing gains. When assembling a diversified portfolio, I actually think you’re better off keeping it simple with indexed etfs. That way you know the profile of each component stays conisistent. Personally I just use the ishares 20 year treasury etf. One reason for longer duration treasuries is that the volatility is greater- and in a diversified portfolio having each component be of similar volatility with low correlation is what you want (modern portfolio theory)
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Jason here - Thanks for the input, Richard! You make a number of excellent points with which we agree. The guidance we've heard most often is that intermediate Treasuries are the way to go. Longer duration increases inflation risk, no? Would be interested in your take.
@richardh3587
@richardh3587 2 жыл бұрын
@@TwoSidesOfFI true…but keep in mind that you’re not holding them in isolation - the volatility allows for rebalancing opportunities which capture more gain than just buying a long dated bond and collecting the dividends would. The other piece is that I also have a short term treasury/cash fund - if you balance them out the average duration is probably more like an intermediate fund (a “barbell” approach if you will)
@JeffreyAlvarez1
@JeffreyAlvarez1 3 жыл бұрын
Are you able to talk about why you ended up choosing that etf over a vanguard fund?
@jimsalmon5158
@jimsalmon5158 2 жыл бұрын
I’m in my late 30’s and have been buying only US equities since I started about 8 years ago. I’m now buying international equities for more diversification, but I feel like I’ve been spoiled with 20-25% returns every year from US stocks.
@johngill2853
@johngill2853 2 жыл бұрын
All assets run in cycles. You can guarantee eventually international stocks, small cap US stocks and bonds will perform better. I'm just the opposite my first nine years included 2001 and 2007 and my asset allocation is diversified because I always remembers the market can go down.
@jimsalmon5158
@jimsalmon5158 2 жыл бұрын
@@johngill2853 True, maybe I should look at it as international stocks are on sale.
@robwalker2944
@robwalker2944 2 жыл бұрын
Eric, you are totally doing the right thing! How disappointed will you be if you miss out on 7-15% gains as defensive equities rise as they price up to match or beat inflation? How happy will you be when you miss out on 30-40% losses as inflation bursts the tech bubble and people stop spending on Apples and Teslas to pay their grocery bills? No-one knows which way the market is going, but I suspect I know which of those would hurt you the most! p.s. I'm also 100% equities, but this series has shown me that I need to improve my risk adjusted return too.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your comment and your support! Best wishes to you.
@eddielee5634
@eddielee5634 2 жыл бұрын
I am around 80/20 right now and 3-5 years away from FIRE. I would also like to get down to around 60-70 percent equities. Rather than sell anything right now, I am just tilting current/future purchases more towards bonds while still buying some equities. By the time I reach FIRE I should hopefully be around my target allocation.
@michaelfriedman2221
@michaelfriedman2221 2 жыл бұрын
Barney Frank LOLOL. I love that guy!
@Doso777
@Doso777 2 жыл бұрын
I have a state pension coming along with social security so i am looking at a somewhat higher equitiy ratio. I funded my first bunch of bond funds with cleaning up and simplifying my portfolio. I will buy more with new money, dividends and by slowly converting other non-liquid assets. Still not shure on how much money i have to put into bond funds in total since my investments produce dividends and everything is non-tax exempt accounts which makes rebalancing difficult.
@revview5594
@revview5594 2 жыл бұрын
Why buy bonds in a year of rising interest rates.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Long term play, as long as you hold for the avg duration it's a win...right?
@yv4344
@yv4344 2 жыл бұрын
@@TwoSidesOfFI Also, how can bonds make sense with inflation heading north of 7% and their return is lower?
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
@@yv4344 Bonds are essential elements of your asset allocation to reduce risk by adding components that are less/not correlated to stock performance. www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-beat-your-fear-of-losing-money-with-bonds-as-interest-rates-rise-if-you-understand-this-one-thing-11634742389
@johngill2853
@johngill2853 2 жыл бұрын
I've heard about rising interest rates my whole 22-year investment timeline. Eventually you keep guessing long enough you'll be right. Some say why stocks when the market's going to crash because it's overvalued (not me)
@yv4344
@yv4344 2 жыл бұрын
@@johngill2853 That is my whole point actually which you don't get. Investing in bonds that give at best a few % interest when inflation is above 7% and is likely to stay high for long means that I am losing money, even if I hold until maturity and get capital back. I don't care about the value of the bond in the meantime and how sensitive it is to interest rates. You will just lose purchasing power in the end.
@hydrogolfer
@hydrogolfer 2 жыл бұрын
Curious as to the decision to focus bucket 2 on bonds as opposed to dividend stock. At least that’s what the video tends to suggest. While I have not done extensive research do we not see the blue-chip dividend stocks suffer less and for a shorter time period during a downturn such that you would not need 3 years of cash/fixed income readily available?
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Without digging too deeply as we've touched on it in the past, Eric and I are not dividend investors. Yes, we have funds and stocks that pay dividends, and these are great for a variety of reasons. Importantly, we are not of the opinion that they are a substitute for fixed income. It's not just about funding your lifestyle + having a means to generate cash if stocks are down. It's also about risk mitigation.
@hydrogolfer
@hydrogolfer 2 жыл бұрын
Yea I am suggesting the blue chip dividend approach could possibly be risk mitigation to the big and longer-term market downturns that lead people to have 30% or higher fixed income allocations. More of a thought at this point as I am not sure if there is clear evidence on this.
@hydrogolfer
@hydrogolfer 2 жыл бұрын
Love the videos guys. Comment was made that rebalancing in the taxable account would generate capital gains tax (agreed) so why not strategically retire in December and rebalance in January (year 1 of retirement) to minimize capital gains and consider the same in year 2?
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks, David! Lots of things can work and of course this puts the 'personal' in personal finance. Knowing where you are from a tax bracket perspective enables you to have options.
@danielsheppardtv
@danielsheppardtv 2 жыл бұрын
Nice one guys. Where did you post the link to the excel sheet that compares muni to BND?
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks, Daniel. We didn't end up posting it as there were some issues with how it did the calculations. That said, here's a good Reddit thread to get you started. www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/758svj/where_to_hold_bonds_from_a_fire_perspective/
@mhoepfin
@mhoepfin 3 жыл бұрын
In some respects I treat my paid off house as a bond allocation that pays me 3% a year in mortgage interest savings. It’s occupies space as a safe investment so I’m more comfortable with more in equities. I believe one of you has a paid off mortgage, correct?
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Jason here - Thanks, Mike. Eric has a paid off mortgage. And there are good cases to be made re: paying down your mortgage if you're holding any kind of bond allocation. Example linked below. However, most in finance make the case that while RE is a solid and often less correlated part of a diverse portfolio, it doesn't replace the need for traditional fixed income assets. jonluskin.com/pay-off-your-mortgage-if-investing-in-bonds/
@brucecampbell208
@brucecampbell208 2 жыл бұрын
I hope you won't be as obsessed about returns in your retirement as you appear to be right now. I know it is tough not to look at the numbers and obsess over them too much especially when you are close to retirement. Life is too short to be stressed about money, I hope you plan to live your FIRE retirement years enjoying yourself.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Jason here - It's actually pretty challenging on both sides, particularly when surrounded by people who talk about the market constantly. Freely admit that I was largely in a better situation than Eric. Barring the brief (and a little scary) initial COVID market downturn, my several years prior and first year after RE have had strong market performance. I'm glad for that as the current downturn / volatility isn't bothering me nearly as much as it might have. Best wishes to you, Bruce!
@brucecampbell208
@brucecampbell208 2 жыл бұрын
@@TwoSidesOfFI Thanks for getting back to me and yes that makes a lot of sense, really enjoy your guys discussions and this channel in general keep the awesome content coming!
@Bluponi
@Bluponi 2 жыл бұрын
Great conversation guys... For someone who is still working, would you say that the allocation should be 80 / 20 bonds instead of 60 / 40 ? I believe that if a person is still working, and they put 40 % in bonds, they are potentially giving up a large percentage of stock market gains, in order to have a " safe " bond fund like the Vanguard BND fund, which pays only 2 % a year, which is not even enough to cover inflation. Do you think its wise to substitute Real Estate Investment Trust for BONDS, which are relatively safe and pay much higher yield than bonds ? I would be interested to know your thoughts. Thank you again for so many great thought provoking discussions.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks. Everyone's situation is so different that generalization is very difficult, and this isn't financial advice. But as a general concept, the farther you are from retirement, a higher % equity is commonly held. You're right that a very high bond allocation would reduce the potential earnings over time for someone with longer to go. It's also common for people to hold REITs or other real estate funds as a portion of their portfolio, though these are a part of some of the common whole market funds too. For those who elect to hold a REIT fund, we hear 5-10% of assets as a common position. Again, this varies by individual preferences for simplicity, among other aspects. We have a number of episodes on the topic of asset allocation, including this first part of a 2-episode series: kzbin.info/www/bejne/hXuqaZKnmNlnnsU
@LiamRappaport
@LiamRappaport 3 жыл бұрын
As far as worrying about if you put the decimal in the wrong place in your sell order, I know at least my broker (TDA) gives you a prompt if your sell point is significantly lower (or buy point is significantly higher) than the current price.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Good to know, thanks, Liam
@Benham_Design
@Benham_Design 3 жыл бұрын
Hi Eric, when you hit your Fi number. For a creative outlet, I hope to see you work on your passion projects. Is there a building style you want to design? As an artist, retiring at FI doesn't mean I stop making art, it means I can make art on my terms, not a clients terms. I will be able to explore the type of art techniques that interest me. My Fi number includes a line item to fund passion projects for my own growth, and interest. There is only so long I can sit on a beach before I become a bored alcoholic. #alwaysbemaking
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
For sure, I've talked about this before, but some sort of creative practice - (i.e. - making things) - will always be a part of my life. That's true now and I don't actually see that changing once I reach FI. It's the freedom to explore a greater variety of things (as you mention)...especially those things that lie outside the realm of building which is constrained by a great many forces (contractors, regulatory agencies, clients, budgets, supply chains, etc.) That's what I'm looking forward to!
@dagobaker
@dagobaker 2 жыл бұрын
how are people that are just keeping 100% of their money in Vanguard 500 doing? who can i track thats doing FIRE just staying fully invested in the market with zero bonds.... maybe 10% cash 90 % S&P500 any help would b appreciated
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Matthew, you can do that, and backtesting tools like Portfolio Visualizer are useful for that purpose. However, the risk in that approach is that you're always looking backwards. That fact, combined with the reality of past results never being a guarantee of future returns, is challenging. Importantly, the window of time over which you're looking is important. The conclusion you'd come to based on the last 10 years is likely to be very different from what you'd find over the ten years to come. So which will be more like your own returns? We can't know, of course.
@dagobaker
@dagobaker 2 жыл бұрын
@@TwoSidesOfFI appreciate your response and love the channel.... keep it up im more nervous of boredom in the winter so ill probably keep working part time even if my $$$ doesnt need to
@peterwakeman9930
@peterwakeman9930 2 жыл бұрын
Heard a story of lady phoning her broker requesting sell everything now today she said. The broker advised her not but followed her instructions. The next the market crashed in October 1987. The broker called her saying you can buy back cheaper. She said go away I have made my money thanks
@peterwakeman9930
@peterwakeman9930 2 жыл бұрын
She sold day before market crash
@hugocast
@hugocast 2 жыл бұрын
It will be really interesting to see what Eric from 2032 thinks about what Eric from 2022 did.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Jason here - that makes three of us, as I’ve done similarly. History suggests we are right - not that past returns are any guarantee of future performance of course.
@bobwright8000
@bobwright8000 2 жыл бұрын
With interest rates going up, bond funds are going down in value, and have a terrible income at best. I am not buying any bonds. If the stock market goes down, I just buy cheaper. Good luck.
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Pre-retirement, particularly far from your date, this is a common and reasonable approach. Later on? It's hard to argue against the risk mitigation that true fixed income provides. Best wishes to you.
@bobwright8000
@bobwright8000 2 жыл бұрын
@@TwoSidesOfFI With the market like it on an extended downtrend, I use cash not bonds. I use the cash to buy cheaper stock. It is hard to argue against stocks beating bonds over time. (I am 75 years old, and have been withdrawing 12% per year from my IRA for years. I have more now than I had when i retired. I can only withdraw not add to my account, so I think cash has worked well for me. Best wishes to you also.
@GRUMPNUGS
@GRUMPNUGS 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Eric,, don't know if you'rre aware of these channels. I've been learning and using them for the past 2 years in helping me create solid foundations and a thesis for my investment portfolio,, hope it helps any | 1. Principles by Ray Dalio 2. John Polomny 3. Neil McCoy-Ward 4. Findingg Value Finance 5. Mike Maloney
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Kris, definitely familiar with at least a few of those but will give them all a fresh look. Cheers.../eric
@missouri6014
@missouri6014 2 жыл бұрын
You guys are making this way too complicated This planning for a retirement thing is really not that difficult But I appreciate the video thank you
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 2 жыл бұрын
Jason here - ok I’ll bite. What do you think we over complicating? From the comments and notes we receive there’s clearly lots of questions out there.
@PowerfulMoneyHabits
@PowerfulMoneyHabits 3 жыл бұрын
The money guy show just did a show on ibonds! They’re junk! A professional can definitely help you! Good luck!
@TwoSidesOfFI
@TwoSidesOfFI 3 жыл бұрын
Jason here - Thanks for the comment! "Junk" seems a _little_ strong to me, but both Eric and I did decide that I-bonds didn't make much sense for either of us. Stay tuned as I think we'll be coming back to the topic of our portfolios and fixed income assets before too long!
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