UBC Copenhagen Backgammon Rd 1: Justin Nowell vs Oliver Squire

[@smoothwalrus9354]

Love the enthusiasm, Justin. Thank you for showing these matches :)

[@thisnamesuffices3789]

I'm glad to hear you thoughts about PR and being stuck on the bar, starting around 10:00. Personally, I feel that the effect of this is too great in a short match for PR alone to be a completely fair metric. I feel for a skill-and-win based point system, it would be best to award 3 points: 1 for the win, 1 for PR, and 1 for (least) total equity lost. I have seen this format used once or twice, but it is not the Galaxy / UBC format. In any event, I play at an 8 PR, so I'd be losing either way lol. But still, I think it would be more fair. Getting stuck on the bar in a short match can totally ruin your PR!

[@JustinNowellPlaysBG]

It can only ruin your PR if you made previous mistakes. If you made 0 mistakes you would then play a zero. It's doubled edged, it can work for you or against you in any single match but of course I would prefer to get decisions.

[@thisnamesuffices3789]

But the mistakes don’t have to happen previously, they can happen at any time and the effect will be the same. And since no one plays perfectly, the effect will always be negative. Even if say, you correctly play an opening split, get blitzed, and spend the rest of that entire game on the bar, yes you will have a 0 PR for that game itself, but your total decisions for the match will still be reduced, thus magnifying any other errors. Anyway, like I admitted, I’m no expert. And most people, including most top level players, seem to feel the system is fine. But it’s something I quibble with. Great video, and thanks for replying.

[@pennylane6355]

You're fun to listen to Justin. Great comments!

[@JustinNowellPlaysBG]

Thank you very much!

[@markstuart8451]

Great stuff, many thanks!

[@timsullivan4566]

Oh.. "Smash the LIKE button" - I thought you were saying "Smash the LIGHT button" which I immediately did... ...and now my phone's flashlight is broken.😭

[@M19_bckgm]

Love your comments 😄👍🏻 Great game though

[@chasealexander88]

28:18 I suppose the duplication of the roll 3-5 is why the best move is 15/10. What a difficult decision.

[@RVeda-vh5on]

37:30 I greatly appreciate your almost instant appraisal of positions, Justin. I'm more of a math nerd, and don't often get the feel right.... But the math is simple post-crawford, and I don't believe most people (incl. you) appreciate the 'free drop' difference between 2 away (no gammon value) and 4 away ( _huge_ gammon value: 1.05 - larger then even 4 away 2 away). Dropping the 'free drop' after making such an anchor as Oliver did would be a _huge_ blunder at 4 away (note: -.309 - no longer a 'free' drop at all). With that anchor, even if Oliver were _slightly behind_ in wins, he should take (unlike at 2-away), because the gammons have dropped so much. 4 away post-crawford is a score to understand. It's a pass at this score only if trailer's wins + 1.05 * his gammon wins >=66% ( _not_ wins alone >=50%). When gammon losses are down to 7% (as they were after Oliver's 22), he would have had a take even if his wins were only 42%(!) If you make an advanced anchor or escape a checker on the second roll as leader in this score, you may well have a take. Example reference position: even if trailer opens with 3-1(!) and you roll 6-5 as leader at 4-away post-crawford, you have a take, although your wins are less than 50% (look it up) (though of course it's a drop at 2 away post crawford - win % is all that matters there). At 4 away, you've got to estimate gammons.

[@RVeda-vh5on]

41:05 2 away post-crawford: 'I'm not a favorite so I'm not going to double'.... C'mon Justin, you know better than that. The right question is not 'am I a favorite', but 'can I _become_ a favorite after the next sequence?'. The answer is yes, and _any_ such market losing possibility requires a double here. There's a penalty in losing your market, but _no penalty_ (well duh) in doubling early.

[@RVeda-vh5on]

32:05 '21 I slot of course'.... Quite wrong here, giving Oliver easy chances to get off the drop by hitting. The compensating benefit of the slot being missed is truncated by the drop. Like other cube-in-middle scores, you want to maximize the sequences which leave you just 'good enough'. You need to learn more about post-crawford and 2-away scores, which have some relatively easier math.

[@RVeda-vh5on]

32:08 '2-1, I slot of course...' Kind of knee-jerk, and a .029 error. Most of the slotting benefit comes from not getting hit, which is truncated because of the free drop. But the risk is amplified more than usual; his 4-4 joker was a _huge_ equity gain for him; any thoughts of giving up the game to you are out the window. Still, it's time you doubled, Justin, though Oliver's anchor actually robber you of any market losers this roll (his drop is by no means free anymore). Running 'the trick' on a free-drop score is very thin ice. If you _really_ want to try it, you should know the market loser calculation. At this score, if your wins plus .57 times your gammon wins add to 61% or more, you have lost your market. Not worth pushing very far. BTW, gammons matter (a lot) in any free drop score but 2 away. The above calculation was _not_ 'favorite to win or not' (wins >=50%), contrary to the almost universally-held myth.

[@GordonjSmith1]

I am sure that both the game and the commentary were excellent - however I really dislike watching backgammon 'online'... sorry.