UK housing market is slowing down, says analyst

Рет қаралды 7,948

Күн бұрын

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, discusses falling U.K. house prices and the outlook for 2025.

Пікірлер: 25

@jorda_n_ Ай бұрын

It’s almost as if people can’t afford to buy houses.

@johnhumphries6751 Ай бұрын

He sounds like 'the calm voice of reason', but the last person I would believe concerning the future of the housing market would be someone involved in selling houses. We are in an incredibly unstable situation. Large amounts of housing is now owned by individual private landlords, who let on short term basis or do so as holiday lets. Those homes are speculative capital assets for retirement or as 'the bank of mum and dad' to raise cash for future kids homes / education / care costs etc. As soon as the market begins heading down, these will be sold as depreciating assets, speeding the decline even further. This won't be triggered by mortgage interest tax relief or the interest rate directly, these things will be triggered by recession and unemployment. If you want to know where property prices are going, you need to look at the stats for number of jobs on offer, followed a few months later by unemployment numbers.

@QBR1234 25 күн бұрын

Whoelse will you take advice from if not someone involved in the market?? What about the guy at the local garage who sells cars he might know.😂😂😂

@johnhumphries6751 25 күн бұрын

I think it's about asking what these peoples motivation would ever be for telling you that a housing market looked fragile. The answer is that they don't have any incentive to ever tell you that, so it would never happen. Their job is to constantly find all the most believable reasons for optimism. They have one simple job, which is to make you feel good and borrow or spend money and that's really all there is to it. 🙂

@QBR1234 25 күн бұрын

@@johnhumphries6751 you do know that Knight Franks proposition is market leading property experts and forecasts, you have to ask why they would make uninformed/dishonest predictions… on your logic no one can be trusted, what happens when you take your car to the mechanic and they say it needs work? Are they serving their own purpose? Or do you take their advice.

@paulbarker6743 28 күн бұрын

Now is a ridiculous time to buy UK property and worse after March. Houses are taking much longer to sell, rates are higher, people have less money, the budget is going to screw over businesses, there is only one way the UK market is heading

@mal7175 Ай бұрын

The UK housing market is done, there will be a crash that ruins a generation. No one can afford to buy them so demand has flatlined, and if there’s a recession no one has realized how severe the impact will be. It’s another 2008 moment but everyone has less savings and credit to rely on

@user-hs4ei27 Ай бұрын

The younger generation also carry a huge student loan burden, leaving uni with no jobs!

@williamkeane255 Ай бұрын

No chance, we'll never hit the housing targets labour have promised and immigration will remain high for a long time. Prices may stagnate but won't drop.

@mal7175 Ай бұрын

@@williamkeane255 Part of the issue that made the 2008 recession so bad is that the collateralized debt obligations hid the risk posed on mortgages, and when the economy eventually went into recession millions more people across the US and UK defaulted than expected. Isolating that down to the UK, if there’s a major recession in the next 5 years most UK consumers will have no savings to cover job loss and many are already in debt after the cost of living crisis. Housing is now 50% more expensive than in 2008, and real incomes taking into account inflation have not grown. This is a HUGE risk for the UK economy, it means the average person cannot afford to lose their job and maintain their house..

@williamkeane255 Ай бұрын

@@mal7175 2008 was different, investment banks played fast and loose with CDOs and incentivised retail banking and brokers to go nuts writing loans. There was very little due diligence on loans, the LTV rate were super low too, I remember 105% mortgages being offered at the time. Post brexit we're in a state of managed decline. Weirdly I think Liz trus was on the right track by cutting taxes to incentivised investment and growth in the private sector. Unfortunately for her our economy was so fragile the markets got spooked. The only thing propping housing and our gdp up is immigration. But if you look at gdp per capital we're becoming poorer.

@pondeify 28 күн бұрын

unlikely to happen - the bank of england will just print money again which will cause asset inflation. meanwhile technology advancements will limit workers ability to demand higher wagers.