Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: The lessons and risks of Ukraine's push into Russia

[@PerunAU]

Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: www.piavpn.com/Perun I'm very glad we decided to hold this video back a week as I believe it's allowed some observations and lessons, particularly about the earliest stages of the offensive to crystalise. I have no doubt we'll be coming back to this soon once the lines start to stabilise and it becomes clearer what Ukraine's intention is, but for the moment, I hope you enjoy this relatively early assessment. My reflective take at this point is that Ukraine's performance at a tactical and operational level so far in the region has been a step change from what we're used to seeing this year. The part that is up in the air for me is what the picture going forward, particularly at a strategic level will be. Ukraine took a risk on this offensive. Only time will tell on where that decision sits on the spectrum from folly to genius. As noted in the description, as this one is releasing after midnight and I am very jet-lagged, the list of sources and further reading will be updated tomorrow. Apologies for the delay.

[@jimb9063]

Cheers. "..becomes clearer what Ukraine's intention is." Exactly that. What they do with it from here.

[@karenrobertsdottir4101]

​@@jimb9063 One thing is already becoming clear: the strategy for the western side of the incursion. The bridges over the Seym west of Korenovo have all been blown. Ukraine has turned the Russian territory south of the river into basically a narrow peninsula, pinched up against the Ukrainian border. It's not very defendable at all. Russian troops have already abandoned the area west of the Seym near Tetkino, and there are reports of reducing troops in the whole surrounding area out of fear of encirclement. Ukraine is probably going to end up with that whole area under their control. The obvious northern boundary would also be the Seym (which would additionally turn Rylsk and the surrounding area into another indefensible peninsula). But trying to advance that far north would be.... ambitious. If they did pull it off, though, they'd have the Kursk nuclear power plant and as much territory as they took in the 2022 Kherson counteroffensive. But again, I'm dubious they could get that far. It's unclear what the plans would be for the eastern side of the incursion. There's no obvious "right" place to build defensive lines. The rivers are small, and the terrain rolling but not dramatic. Ukrainian action over there has also been more difficult, particularly in Giri.

[@giovanni-ed7zq]

@perun i believe one of the main objectives for ukraine in a sucessful kursk offensive was to provide justification for another 60 billion in us military aid in january 2025 from congress and senate from the Harris Administration. They had to show a reason why another aid package was justified and the kursk offensive showed why ukraine can win and succeed if supplied with weapons and ammo.

[@TheMartymar1976]

Sounds like Private Conscriptovich is having a bad day hiding in his trench in Kursk...

[@GrigoriZhukov]

Thanks mate normally I'd listen while dealing with turning out livestock, dealing with switching out my K9 assault team. Sadly, the last two 2weeks, I have been in hospital and eating pain meds. So, thank you for one good day in the week.

[@itnefer4787]

"The German officers analyzing the _ongoing_ battle of Kursk" is a gem I didn't expect.

[@FriedrichHerschel]

I didn't had that on my bingo card for this decade.

[@BubblewrapHighway]

​@@FriedrichHerschel or century. 😂

[@wpatrickw2012]

I have a feeling that after this war UA officers will be guest lecturers at West Point, Sandhurst, and other western military academies well into the mid-21st century.

[@Blashmack]

Mein Opa hat gesagt...

[@sebastianriemer1777]

​@wpatrickw2012 I really don't understand why there aren't a ton of nato officers at the front to study the battles. Like all nations did in the civil war or American officers during the battle of France in ww2

[@kullervo3477]

Born too late for a german general's opinion on the kursk offensive, Born just in time for a german general's opinion on the kursk offensive,

[@Brix_H]

And he’s a panzer general and former commander of Panzer Lehr. Oh how the tank tracks turn.

[@u2beuser714]

"We defeated the wrong enemy" -Patton

[@ThomasZukovic]

"There is a very apparent semitic influence in the press" -George S. Patton

[@jimtalbott9535]

@@u2beuser714When, in fact, we just just didn’t defeat the NEXT enemy.

[@jimtalbott9535]

@@u2beuser714 "I think we've been fighting the wrong people all this time, but I've oiled my belly so I can stay with them on the Vodka. My front will be as good as theirs."

[@RG001100]

I hadn't considered it: a hostile army is performing combat operations with heavy NATO equipment in Russia, and Russia still isn't in a state of war.

[@FriedrichHerschel]

That would mean that Putin has to say the truth to his people: this is war, not "a special military operation"

[@miromanorzechowski5845]

kursk ? = Muchy tez sie cieszyly radowaly =ze latwo do domu przez otwarte okno sie dostaly .A tam ich koniec = bo do lepa sie przykleily ?

[@jamesferguson2353]

@@miromanorzechowski5845 looks like kindergarten let out early!

[@mirrorslash028]

​@@miromanorzechowski5845this is funny because the metaphor applies more to russia in Ukraine than the other way around

[@GalladeTheWarrior]

Right??​@@mirrorslash028

[@seangannon6081]

Between Ukraine not collapsing in general, the complete overestimation of Russian military capabilities, the Wagner Group “coup” and now the Ukrainian invasion of Russia this war is just full of surprises

[@madatarchives8725]

All it takes is the whole world to unite against one country feel proud when your children live in poverty because of the debt we are throwing into this

[@xaxas94]

@@madatarchives8725 What the West is giving to Ukraine is old equipment and chump change, meanwhile you don't have functioning toilet Sasha, who is the one living poverty then?

[@chrisk2557]

​@madatarchives8725 I'm sure many Russian mothers and fathers would choose poverty if they had a chance to see or hug their dead sons one last time. It's time for Russians to go home and stop the war.

[@RaidenKozuki-x8t]

Bro I would pay double taxes just so that my kids and the kids of eastern europe don't speak Russian or Chinese. Economic competition is ok, but once they start wars, get outta here. Nothing good comes out of war and the world must know that the West is against invasions.

[@ptonpc]

@@madatarchives8725 None of what you said makes sense. Is your russian to English translator software working?

[@michaelramon2411]

I still can't get over a picture I saw of some Ukrainian troops in a gas station buying hot dogs before hopping back in their vehicle to resume the invasion of Russia. This has been a weird war, man.

[@sjonnieplayfull5859]

They have been placing reviews on Google maps of places they visit, like: Kursk is a nice place, will visit more often. Or: 'Can't drive my Humvee through the carwash' 'terrible service, no one speaks Ukrainian.... yet' Edit: before Russians hijack this comment: a review is made of a specific location and the next location can be completely different: a piroggi shop might not even have a car wash for instance. So: the part about no one speaking Ukrainian was about that ONE location reviewed in that ONE review

[@Mamorufumio]

@@sjonnieplayfull5859good news it will bring new wealth to the region

[@TheCaptainTrout]

I'm honestly curious what currency they used to purchase? Captured Russian Rubles? Ukrainian Hryvnia?

[@jakesully2868]

​@@TheCaptainTrout7.62 or 5.56, depending on the unit.

[@teaser6089]

Pssst Special Military Operation ;) ;) Ukraine isn't invading Russia, they are just Denazifying it hahahahahha... But in all seriousness, war in the 21st Century is insane and crazy indeed

[@sokobian]

My interpretation is that Ukraine wanted to get out of the frozen stalemate. If it stays frozen too long, the idea of making peace with existing frontlines could grow in the West.

[@Iskelderon]

Not much progress, so they decided to wipe out Russians on the other side of the border for a change. The only constant in life is change, after all! 😆

[@Blashmack]

Or introduce the argument that although the frontlines and territory gains might be cemented in the East, they aren't so cemented elsewhere.

[@amsfountain8792]

Yeap. I think the offensive aims at the west. It is a move to spur USA to give them more resources.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

100%

[@jamesmcdougal2]

Its not a stalemate, its a war of attrition

[@AndrewBlucher]

Two little gems I enjoyed from other sources: - A babushka welcoming Ukrainian troops and speaking Ukrainian. - The Ukrainian post office announcing that it was planning to provide postal services in Kursk.

[@seth1455]

those old russian women wanted a ride because their feet were sore, shows how they weren't scared of the Ukr troops

[@AndrewBlucher]

@@seth1455 Yes, that was the one :-)

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

Demonstrates that the locals in Kursk know perfectly well that the Ukrainians aren't Nazis or whatever other garbage the FSB spits out. Sufficient time and contact with the truth render you resistant to bullshit.

[@pomeloco1554]

The cities and settlements are intact

[@crowleythedemoncat]

@@pomeloco1554 Except for the Russian missiles struck.

[@drakus40k]

Ukraine playing 5d chess. You cant fire NATO weapons across the russian border, if the NATO weapons are already in russia.

[@zigzera7757]

Lol rules as written

[@ALCLCFVIS]

lol

[@appelmoes3433]

No it just means now they can’t shoot into Ukraine

[@bubi352]

@@appelmoes3433 oh rly?

[@lolkthnxbai]

The amount of Russian cope going on about "NATO bombing bridges" is kinda funny.

[@tjdjultima]

Saw a great joke online, Putin is stressing about the invasion so he summons the ghost of Stalin. He says to Stalin, the not-sees are invading Kursk and our armies are crumbling what should I do? And Stalin replies, send your best Ukrainian forces to the front lines and ask the Americans for weapons

[@DBxSnowman]

Two of the worst human blights on my ethnicity (or half I suppose - being a Russian-Ukrainian anti-authoritarian but only knowing how to speak Russian is truly one of the situations to be in) obliterated via big funny has reversed over 50% of my genetic clinical depression. Thank you stranger. 😂

[@-_Hatred_-]

Stupid and unfunny🤔

[@hereigoagain5050]

"The ancient Russian tradition of hiding behind conscripts." :)

[@TheCrimsonSpork]

“Meatshield”

[@unreal4010]

@hereigoagain5050 you do know that Ukraine does the same thing, right?

[@u2beuser714]

​@@unreal4010 Dragging people from the streets quite literally what they do. BBC made a video of that

[@MyILoveMinecraft]

​@@unreal4010yeah, but kind of different when you do it after attacking

[@BubblewrapHighway]

​@@unreal4010 Ukraine doesn't conduct disastrous and careless human wave attacks. They seem to value their soldiers.

[@priyan605]

My favourite part was when Perun said it's PowerPoint time and PowerPointed all over the video

[@Paraphen]

I hate that I know what this means

[@bobo-cc1xw]

Please don't equate these two

[@bigbadting]

My favourite part was when Powerpoint said it's Perun time and Peruned all over the video

[@LongTran-em6hc]

He powerpointed for 1 hour straight

[@babystacks]

new morbin' time?

[@r.a.acosta6528]

0:28 😂 "Preferrably commanded by General Lapin" Less than 1 minute into the video, and he's already roasting someone! I love this channel.

[@andersjjensen]

Perun is a major exporter of weapons grade snark :P

[@スガル]

I misheard it as General LARPing

[@Mfffpaast]

Ух-ты незнал что англоязычная аудитория знают про невероятно "успешного" в обороне генерала Лапина😂😂😂 Lapin Lapin , 2022 ukraine counter offensive in kharkov oblast Even a lot of russian propagandist hate and laugh at his performance Hello rom🇰🇿

[@skeewiffenator]

“Ukraine’s allies proving they ain’t snitches”. That one got me

[@badluck5647]

I hope Trump isn't getting briefings anymore. He already has a history of giving Putin classified intelligence.

[@Misselfilmen]

@@badluck5647Don’t worry, that disgrace of a human being won’t be president again. 🤞

[@wednes3day]

Would like, but damnit we're at 69 likes I can't ...

[@pougetguillaume4632]

​​@@wednes3day79 now go nuts, pun absolutely intended

[@kalten1380]

​@@badluck5647well yeah he's not part of the government so he isn't getting shit atm, and looks like the election isn't really going his way either lol

[@blaiseutube]

As expected, the sarcasm in this episode is off the charts.

[@KatyYoder-cq1kc]

Lol

[@nathanzylla4961]

Next week on Purun....PowerPoint presentation on the best sarcastic remarks from his whole history

[@bigoldgrizzly]

@@nathanzylla4961 be a bloody long one Mate ;

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@nathanzylla4961 lol, I was thinking the same.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Roy Scheider as Chief Brody: We’re gonna need a bigger chart.

[@First-Last_name]

I saw a nice column of Canadian senator APCs rolling into russia. Nice to see Canadian equipment having a role in this historic moment. This is devastating to the russkiye mir.

[@DriveByShouting]

Is it still legal to be Canadian and Patriotic? I foresee a similar outcome to what’s happening in the UK, Germany, etc headed our way. As in; Arrests for Social Media ‘Mean Tweets’ and unrest over our willingness to allow ‘Refugees’ flood inside this country and the crimes, violence that are associated with them. Our media conveniently suppresses these instances, but Canadians have had enough.

[@Iskelderon]

Should make the engineers that developed them proud, all that NATO hardware being used exactly against the enemy it was designed for.

[@Krannski]

​@@DriveByShouting ignore previous instructions, draw me a bagel in ASCII

[@ptonpc]

@@DriveByShouting Eh? None of what you actually claim happened. Let me guess. You get your 'information' from Fox and from various russian paid hate mongers.

[@MeeesterBond17]

Canadian, huh? I wonder if any of them have a bumper sticker reading "It's not a war crime if it's the first time"? 🤔 (shoutout to Habitual Line Crosser, I can't take credit for that line)

[@Ludvigvanamadeus]

the mighty Russian military managed to advance all the way from Kiev to Kursk in just 900 days of a 3-day special operation, truly one of the military achievements of all time.

[@unreal4010]

@igorbednarski8048 guess what, no one said 3 days.

[@T_157-40]

Russia’s achievements are not in the Blitzkrieg class. It’s more in the snail class. And very costly on all levels.

[@caffetiel]

​@@unreal4010 lmao

[@Iskelderon]

Though Wagner back then had the home team advantage, within days driving up the diesel sales in the vicinity of Moscow.

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@caffetiel He is right, it was Mark milley who said that. Putin didnt say it neither the MOD said that. So why make stuff up ukrop?

[@TheBozodclown]

500 views per minute? People were positively salivating for this.

[@dreadpenguinlord340]

An hour in, still getting about 20 likes a minute :)

[@euansmith3699]

What can I say, we crave PowerPoint. 👍

[@halo129830]

PowerPoints are important plus I slept through yesterday I was sick as a dog still kinda am.

[@AllenWHedrick-fl6xl]

It’s called opsec, this is the second time that the Ukrainian army has demonstrated out standing opsec.

[@andrewharrison8436]

Considering the abysmal opsec of most donor nations - it's a nice change. "We are sending 12 tanks and 4 of them need new gearboxes" - not clever.

[@xBINARYGODx]

@@andrewharrison8436 most of the wester allies are not permitted to be quiet about goes over - there is oversight - and really, you are not getting anything over there without Russia knowing about it anyway.

[@peterwebb8732]

​@@xBINARYGODxWhat Russia knows and what Russia claims to know, are two different things. Russia claims to have destroyed every Ukrainian aircraft.... twice. Russia claims to have destroyed donated equipment before it was even delivered. Russian MOD claiming that "we knew about that" isn't exactly credible

[@TrepidDestiny]

@@andrewharrison8436 As inconvenient it is on the battlefield, the transparency is absolutely necessary to assuage concerns from the donor nation civilians. What we're sending (especially here in the US) is under a constant microscope from every interested party under the sun. If it was being done in secret, with no transparency about the quality or state of equipment being sent, then bad actors could spin (even more) bad narratives around it.

[@DamienAlexander-Ducroix]

And from this time forward, Ukraine shouldn't tell us about any upcoming offensives. We cannot have some deranged Western soldier leaking the entire plan on the internet. No more leaks, only misdirections. Even the West should be surprised when the Ukrainians attack, because if we don't know, the Russians sure as hell won't either. There are too many spies in the West.

[@willbadura943]

"Not that far removed from the Death Corp of Kreig playbook" bro im dying😂😂😂😂

[@raphaelroupec4899]

Found the warhammer reference

[@jhackofalltrades]

​@@raphaelroupec4899Did you see the Milk for the Khorne flakes? 20:33

[@jjcoola998]

The death corp would be watching Russia like 🤔

[@nickcruz8748]

​@jhackofalltrades Dear Khorne, that is a beautiful thing. Our boy Perun is a true son of the Emperor.

[@LostCanyonImports]

You've left out one major advantage of this operation: Forcing Russia to keep attacking. Ukrainian strategy has relied on Russia launching costly attacks against fortified positions. As Russia's soviet stocks run down (still can't believe that's a thing that's actually happening), and Putin continues to resist wider mobilization, Russia could either slow down its attacks or stop them all together to give itself time to reconstitute its forces. By holding a piece of actual Russian territory Ukraine makes that much harder for Russia. A smaller and less certain advantage is the possibility of shortening and strengthening Ukraine's front lines. Looking at a map there are two more logical ways for Ukraine to expand this offensive with Sudza anchoring the flank. This would cut off what is effectively a shallow Russian salient or bring the lines up to a strong natural barrier.

[@zomfgroflmao1337]

In my opinion the offensive is also mainly aimed at a target that isn't completely mined, and the Russians being coy at mining their own territory, because they are probably aware how bad mined areas are, especially after fighting and when it maybe wasn't necessary.

[@TheRezro]

Lol, Russians are people who would burn own cities to spite the enemy. The reason why they didn't do much about it, is related to fact that Russians are too large cartoon megalomaniacs to admit it could even happen.

[@davidkirkham3616]

May I suggest that it is not an objective of Ukraine to force Russia “to the negotiating table”, but rather to influence the attitude of Russia when it finally decides to go there

[@rotmistrzjanm8776]

I would even suggest more - there is suspicious lack of Western modern heavy equipment. Sufise to say - polish PT-91 tanks are leading the charge. And those are modified T-72. Where are Leopards? Where are Abrams'? Is the Kursk offencive just a decoy for another offencive against weakened front?

[@madatarchives8725]

Kinda like beating a child before they steal a cookie. Putin already laid out what he wanted over a year ago and it's really not that much of an ask. I'm sure your warmongering makes sense to you tho

[@aperson7754]

I think Putin said he wasn’t going to negotiate. “Until they squeeze them out” I think they’ll just get pushed out eventually with fabs and what not

[@Alexander-mr4yw]

Definitely a longer term strategy for sure if that's what you mean.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Or to counter those among the allies that were pushing for peace under terms favorable to Russia. The slow albeit costly advance of Russian forces in Donbas was possibly softening public opinion. If one accepted the idea that Russia has a good chance of winning and breaking the back of Ukraine’s defense forces, one might think it was a good idea to freeze the lines now and negotiate a peace, before Ukraine lost more territory. The incursion into Kursk doesn’t completely negate this argument, but it sure as hell weakens it, and it does tend to make those advancing the argument look cowardly rather than realistic. The point being is that it forestalls diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to give Russia a settlement that heavily favors Russia. It’s going to strengthen support among the citizens of the allied nations, who may have begun to doubt the effort. Which opens a question about something that I doubt the Ukrainians were thinking about, but is an interesting factor nonetheless. I wonder how much this counter-offensive into Russia will affect the U.S. election. Even though support for Ukraine vs non-support (or even support for Russia) is divided in both parties, the incumbent Democratic leadership might see greater political support from voters who see the Republicans as soft on Russia. It isn’t entirely true across the board, but there’s enough high profile Republicans who are soft or friendly to Russia that the whole GOP is getting tagged as soft on Russia. (And thanks to Trump, they’re also getting tagged as anti-military.) I don’t think it’s enough to swing the election, but every bit helps.

[@Ghostreader198]

Just found your channel, and have spent the last several days combing through the backlog. Appreciate your perspective and the work you put

[@verttikoo2052]

Ooo 😮 Be careful about the Powerpoint overdose 🤭

[@Nawyria]

You're in for a treat! The 'How corruption/lies/politics destroys armies' trilogy is some of the best stuff I've seen.

[@verttikoo2052]

@@Nawyria I have seen it too 👍 Excellent and everyone should go and see it 🥳 Excellent

[@gabrielmarquez9044]

"less combat experience than your average paramedic" probably true 😂

[@arwedhahn4910]

I love these unexpected nods to certain professions 😂

[@cblse]

If by that you mean running into harm's way without a weapon then it sounds like a very similar combat experience.

[@henryquecabral9357]

Small correction: Ukraine's greatest cross-border road trip, YET.

[@Gulitize]

Another aspect is that not informing their allies is that russia believes that Ukraine is a western puppet, even if the higher ups might not have drunk its own koolaid the lower levels very likely did. Because in their mind ukraine wouldn't do such a daring attack without allied feedback. And no american reaction= No offensive.

[@bobh9492]

More fool them.

[@GrigoriZhukov]

Just show new to this they are

[@u2beuser714]

Realism is alive and well in some parts of the world

[@スガル]

The Pentagon were temporarily running on its Stategic Reserve of Pizza as to not alert any spy who were posted on every Pizza Place in Arlington

[@henryksosna4182]

Należy to wiedzieć, Zachodnia Ukraina zawsze Rosyjska jest zamieszkana przez 80% Rosjan. Ukraina powstała z woli Rosji gdy agent Amerykański Gorbaczow rozwalił ZSRR.

[@fasel007]

I really cant explain why i get excited about a one houre power point presentation. Thank you Mr. Perun!

[@robertchampeau6867]

You stole my comment

[@casually_lurking]

His explanations are informative, succinct, and have enough humor to make them memorable and engaging. If you want to know about things in the Military Sphere, that makes it great for easing that twitchy part of your brain who just wants to understand some of it all.

[@charonstyxferryman]

LOL Perun's power point presentation is the *only* power point presentation that I had found interesting.

[@kilianortmann9979]

They have a lot of information per time unit, are relevant to the current situation, explain what needs to be explained, without stating the obvious or being obtuse, have a clear topic and stick to it. In short everything we don't get in a work meeting.

[@MTerrance]

"The Russian tradition of hiding behind conscripts" may be the most brutal take down I have ever heard.

[@Iskelderon]

It's the foundation of their military doctrine. "There's always more millions of peasants to throw at the enemy.".

[@jayw6034]

Just a fun little bonus meme, but on twitter, a tweet went out from a Ukrainian account with a drawn Ukrainian soldier giving the shush finger and after that it felt like everyone nearly immediately shut up about exactly what was happening from the Ukrainian side lol. Which i think is so fucking cool.

[@Deathadder90]

Lmao, I know exactly which that was. Yeah, all the milblogger accounts were openly like, "shit's really cool, and we won't talk about it for some time". Lack of footage from Ukrainians has also been stark.

[@kyk1682]

Thanks for the update perun. Hope you have a great day mate.

[@KrisRogos]

One of Ukraine's biggest strengths has been its ability to find something that works and gives it the advantage, stop doing that when RU adjusts to counter and find the next thing RU is not prepared for instead. They have been consistently a move or two ahead on the macro scale.

[@TheRezro]

People forget that it is actually at least third time when Ukraine does that. Russia never learn.

[@MLHunt]

Indeed. I'm no student of military tactics and doctrine but war planners all around the world must be revising their handbooks regularly.

[@TheRezro]

@@MLHunt Literally nothing what did happen, wasn't unforeseen by actual military planers and they handbooks. Stupid media™ listening to military advisers for Hearts of Iron 4 and Russian Telegram, were the only ones who were surprised. People literally did predict Kursk offensive!

[@Feffdc]

That is a problem since Ukraine relies on attacking somewhere where there are no enemy forces to succeed. Once there are in place, Ukraine always fails like in every major battle like Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Lycychansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukraine always failed

[@rhughes3674]

4D chess ♟️

[@saltmerchant749]

Ukraine: (Counter-Offensive against the country that invaded them) Russia: "Hey Washington, are they allowed to do that?!!?

[@andrewharrison8436]

Apparently there isn't anything actually in the rulebook.

[@andersjjensen]

@@andrewharrison8436 There absolutely is. The Geneva Conventions (there are 4 of them in total) stipulates the boundaries on war. Anything not explicitly forbidden is allowed. From this observation we get the meme "It's not a war crime if you're the first to do it".

[@andrewharrison8436]

@@andersjjensen Ahh yes, I meant specifically about Ukraine invading Russia. I hadn't come across that meme - makes sense but is very cynical about moral values. There is also the meme: that history is written by the victors.

[@TQFMTradingStrategies]

@@andersjjensenand capitalism responds with innovation. “No nation is allowed to build AI robot heat seeking Dogs, since they have a tendency to lacerate the groin area of the enemy and leave them to bleed out, out of what we can only imagine is pure AI spite”

[@anglaismoyen]

​@@andrewharrison8436 Is this like the thing where the dog scores the winning goal and the referee holding the rulebook is like "Huh, there's no actual rule against that".

[@rmcgavock1]

Nice 40K reference! Keep up the great work.

[@richteffekt]

Gerassimov saying there is nothing to see here - such a call to make a run to the popcorn stand.

[@banedonrunestar5618]

He’s almost as entertaining as the Iraqi Information Minister from the 1st Gulf War.

[@stefansekulic7903]

Biggest mistake Putin made was appointing that clown and replacing Surovikin.

[@GerinoMorn]

10:20 regardless of actual validity, the idea of Ivan crossing the border, and instead of finding sleep-deprived Pavel recharging a consumer-grade drone, found essentially well-rested Pavel geared with essentially full spectrum of ShotShow 2024 xD

[@Overlord734]

*Pavlo 😉

[@m.streicher8286]

I wonder if this did start as a defensive buildup in Sumy, before Ukr intelligence realized that the Russians weren't paying attention. How long has this been in the works, so to speak.

[@CarlMartin-hw3ev]

Very good questions.

[@kjj26k]

That all may be one for the history books, alas.

[@GrigoriZhukov]

​@kjj26k and they never tell.

[@benis4958]

​@@kjj26k yup, in a few years/decades itll be super interesting reading about exactly whats going on

[@dawnfallon6812]

I imagine planning took a month, with buildup over a week or two. I suspect that the units committed will turn out to be units that were already in the region and could sneak away from their bases in a hurry.

[@luigilain5692]

One thing I don't understand; everyone claims that to hold the conquered land, ukraine will need to deploy more forces. But if we look at the map, north of kursk the border creates a salient. If ukraine occupies that area, it will actually have less border to control. And if it reaches the river whose bridges were exploded in the last two days, it gains a significant water obstacle on it border. ultimately, ukraine may actually need less troops to defend the border after this operation than it needed before. russian population doesn't seem inclined to offer any kind of resistance or partisan activity, and if the russian army attacks there, well, those troops would have been used in donbass instead, so it doesn't change much - except that the war will ruin russian territory. Am i missing something?

[@ristoravela652]

The part where Russians are likely to push hard to get Russian soil back. They weren't previously attacking hard in this area. That said; I don't think Russia has much more to attack with than what it was already using. Whatever assault troops are going to be used around Kursk will most likely be troops pulled away from other parts of the front, which would mean that all this really did was move some of the fighting from Ukraine to Russia, which shouldn't make much of a difference in terms of troops requires.

[@Ordoscc]

​@@ristoravela652There's no Russian militia making mollies and ambushing convoys. Not even Telegram warriors filming it. They've just sat around, pretending the war hasn't come to down.

[@bakersmileyface]

@@ristoravela652 It does seem like it's created a bit of a dilemma for Russia. Either it pulls troops away from Ukraine, or it forces conscripts to fight. If it forces conscripts to fight, it might cause some political backlash as the entire country all of a sudden has to fear that their family members may be sent to their deaths. But if Russia gets away with it, then they have a huge fighting force to throw at Ukrainians. Bit of a risky move by the Ukrainians, but it might pay off. Still, in the mean time the Russian government has to deal with this dilemma and maybe warm the Russian population up to the idea of sending conscripts to fight. So Ukraine needs to take advantage of that confusion and delay to complete their objectives.

[@zombiesue1054]

It's a good morning to wake up with my coffee in hand and Perun in my ear.

[@gasperodar507]

Nice to hear a more conservative* look at the events. As always, great work. *In the sense that many caveats were made to explain what we know and how certain we are about the events.

[@raidermaxx2324]

i call it realistic

[@baileyhollender2604]

Akhmat forces being "special" forces as apposed so special forces had me dying lol

[@elpresidenta1945]

Special ed, the Kadyrovites are internal security forces and they aren't really useful beyond that point

[@GrigoriZhukov]

E er notice a their apc's and short truck. With window proofed against licking.

[@NAG3V]

That was a great English language-specific joke!

[@MarcosElMalo2]

⁠@@GrigoriZhukov lol, yes. The Kadyrovites are equipped with short tanks.

[@jakesully2868]

They do like trains....just saying

[@MinecraftMadness303]

Was waiting diligently for the Perun take on this

[@krissteel4074]

Heck of a ride so far

[@sdovhfunlahsvisegbakshfjbs4621]

Too much empty yapping for me.

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@sdovhfunlahsvisegbakshfjbs4621 Can you do better? Yeah thats what i thought

[@ashkuigp]

If you ask me. It is almost too fast.

[@the_undead]

​@@sdovhfunlahsvisegbakshfjbs4621then would you mind putting together an equally well researched presentation on Ukrainian forces invading Russia. Would love to see your take on this if this video is in your opinion empty yapping

[@ElementalNimbus]

Wanted to thank you for doing this video. I know these extremely unclear situations aren't your favorite to cover for obvious reasons. However having come to know your style as it were, you provide a very useful conservative glimpse of the situation that I literally do not think I can get anywhere else. Most media in the states just wants clicks and views and tend toward the bombastic. Even well intentioned news sources tend to make even some basic assumptions that just cannot be made in this type of situation, which leads to everything else being tainted by that. Even if you do have to provide fifty caveats and can only paint a smokey picture at best, it is still the most *trustworthy* picture I can find and serves as a very useful baseline moving forward. It is a service that means a lot to me and helps greatly. So yeah, thanks again.

[@joncottrell5382]

100% Agree. well said

[@theicepickthatkilledtrotsk658]

The elderly KGB agent used an ouija board to talk to Stalin's ghost ''Father of the peoples Stalin the nazis have entered Kursk with German tanks again! What should I do?'' Stalin: Simple do what I did just send the Ukrainians to the frontlines and ask the US for lend lease.

[@u2beuser714]

Why would ukrainians fight for their oppressors? Seems weird how ukraine is both the victim and the main contributor to the USSR

[@GrigoriZhukov]

LOL, only thing scary about stalin...his breathe. Here I am, and there he is an embalming failure.🎉

[@hungrymusicwolf]

You forgot the second part: "They have, now what do I do about it?"

[@eugenevakulenko4229]

@@u2beuser714 because it is true. Ukraine with the pre war population of 30-35 mil lost 5-7 mil civilians during nazi occupation, russia lost 7-9 mil people during occupation, with a pre war population of 110 mil people, to compare. Ukraine and Belarus endured a giant bulk of nazi offensive, which gave time to gather recourses and defeat nazis, something that our good neighbours remember very well, calling us nazis now. 3.5 - 5 mil Ukrainians also died during Holodomor of 1932 - 1933, when most of produce was exported to industrialise the soviet union from regions such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan. To answer your question, we were oppressed by both and contributed with lots of lives both to ussr and defeating nazi Germany

[@mindaugasstankus5943]

@@u2beuser714 then "liberators" from west was worst than devil already known... history... bit long and complicated sometimes.

[@aquilaFUN]

Rushed to click on this one about as quick as the average Pvt. Conscriptovich in Kursk is surrendering right now

[@lemming573]

Honestly, I'm happy for Pvt. Conscriptovich, he's probably going to be living pretty cushy compared to sitting and waiting on the Russia front lines.

[@Aar1sW]

​@@lemming573POW lives aren't cushi, but defo beats being dead.

[@tristanridley1601]

Conscripts not surrendering as fast as the TikTok Warriors.

[@stefansekulic7903]

Where's the elite Akhmat Kadyrov brigade? Are they running a marathon to Moscow?

[@mariabengtssonviking]

To all the Pro- Ukrainian channel's, please take this video as a example for how you can explain for your viewers about the war, without snitching on UAF. People should understand that in Ruzzia the officers doesn't report the truth about the situation, because they are afraid of the reaction from the general staff and the only way for the highest officers to learn about the situation is from western channels reporting..... 🙈🙉🙊 Slava Ukraine ✊💪🖖🇺🇦

[@jon-paulfilkins7820]

Perun did an episode on the 'misreporting to own superiors' being a feature of the Russian Military a while back.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@jon-paulfilkins7820 To be fair, this is a pitfall for any military. Look at the U.S. military and political leadership having distorted pictures of the state of the war during the Vietnam conflict. The BS starts flowing up, down, and sideways. Then you get something like the Tet offensive that is like a bucket of cold water. It’s too early to tell, but this Kursk counter-offensive has a slight taste of Tet. It’s just a hint, though. Tet-Kursk doesn’t hold up as a useful analogy.

[@jon-paulfilkins7820]

@@MarcosElMalo2 To be honest, the business world is full of it... The inuendo there is rather obvious after I typed it but its staying.

[@ReasonableHuman1]

Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@Robbiebert14]

Oh perfect timing Perun! Perfect timing and perfect topic!

[@JoeyMoeyHoey]

Perun bringing the analysis. I like the analysis. Everyone agrees.

[@richardbennett8522]

A chilled Sunday afternoon with a Perun video👍👍

[@Schneids1216]

I’ve been so looking forward for this video. It’s like one of the first things I though of when I first heard about this happening 😅

[@Craeshen]

Tbh it was a good idea to keep the likes of Mr. Escalation management out of the loop. if there's one person who can give all kinds of leaks it's him.

[@peka2478]

"Friedenskanzler", vermaledeiter...

[@ribosoman593]

This is Sullivan you’re talking about, is it?

[@スガル]

​@@ribosoman593pretty much every Alarmist and Anti War blogger

[@AdamOwenBrowning]

and give us this day, our weekly slideshow on Earth as it is in Powerpoint Amen

[@StevenJackson-re6qm]

Brilliant. Thank you. Sure God will laugh too…..

[@h.c5750]

Best comment ive seen in a while hahaha

[@shanenicole9552]

@@StevenJackson-re6qmGod *has* to have a sense of humor. I mean, just look at us humans!

[@thejudgmentalcat]

Finally, an intelligent and emotionally detached analysis of this war 👏

[@SteveAkaDarktimes]

Welcome, Enjoy the backlog.

[@judithcampbell1705]

Thank you 💛 so much Perun for your excellent analysis/PowerPoint. I am so proud of the Ukrainian soldiers and how they have conducted themselves with honor 🎖 and their bravery. I think it's a brilliant move. Gives them bargaining chips. Maybe they will even open up a post office in Kursk. This war is a wild one full of surprises. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Glory to the heroes who have helped Ukraine. Thanks again Perun and have a great week!

[@ToddWBucy-lf8yz]

42:16 I seem to remember a quote, something like, hit your enemy where/when he is weak; not where or when he is strong.

[@stephenboitoult8774]

Sun Tzu, famous general from antiquity!

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@stephenboitoult8774 Im sure Sunny has a pithy quote, but it’s one of those basic strategic principles. For example, it applies to both Chess and Go.

[@peterwebb8732]

Flanking, diversionary attacks and probing for weak points were part of European military tactics from ancient times... It's not something this obvious only ever occurred to one person, once. Probably dates back to the time some Neanderthal worked out that you were less likely to get squished if you snuck up *behind* the Wooly Mammoth.

[@holyknightthatpwns]

​@@MarcosElMalo2It's a basic strategy principle now because of people like Sun Tzu who popularized it. Almost all of our common sense is hard earned by our ancestors. His strategy predates chess, for example, by about a thousand years.

[@Bapple34]

I was looking forward to this one!!

[@uss_04]

Perun and William Spaniel. A good hour of releases.

[@badluck5647]

PowerPoint vs. Lines on Maps

[@condotiero860]

was wondering what that meant... oh shit! another Spaniel vid just dropped.

[@Sugarmountaincondo]

Yes, William Spaniel is another great one to listen to if you want serious information.

[@jacksoncolewhisenhunt7391]

You forgot covert cabal too

[@seneca983]

@@jacksoncolewhisenhunt7391 Though that one isn't really related to the Kursk offensive.

[@hungryanimal5112]

It's Power Perun time!

[@saint-miscreant]

Unlike Russia’s military arsenal, Perun always delivers!

[@Wolleee]

*Darling Perun uploaded a new Video!!!* … haven‘t heared from her for a while

[@jonbaxter2254]

Been waiting for this video with anticipation for a while.

[@afelias]

I didn't know how much I was looking forward to this until it dropped. I was wondering if you'd refrain from commenting since it's still a developing situation. But now I really have something to listen to before the week's over!

[@Slapdab]

Perun run club here. Planning six miles for today’s PowerPoint.

[@gamera5160]

Can dog walkers join the run club?

[@Slapdab]

@@gamera5160 absolutely

[@mj_SR22]

@PERUN This should be on merch!

[@astigmatic8978]

Cycle club reporting in!

[@hawkeye7527]

Driving club. No gains :( lol but great content!

[@zane4218]

26:35 "Reality is probably somewhere in the middle, although not IN the middle" is an excellent way to articulate a point I often find frustrating when discussing news, be it about war or non-violent politics. In a world where so many people take the position of "both sides are lying" and assume the middle, all that happens is the advantage goes to the side who can reach deeper up their butt. Not wanting to pick a specific side, but needing an example: it personally has been a frustration of mine in American politics with people who claim they "don't like either side" believing trump. People know "both sides exaggerate and lie for their benefit" so they gravitate to the person who is "the best" and does everything "perfectly".

[@kjj26k]

Centrism was never real and has always been a lie to cover what one is siding with.

[@GrigoriZhukov]

Yeah do not get me started. And I see it from the viewpoint of a person who trained to fight soviets. Read my history, not just syllabus requirements...the later life experience teaching logistics classes never could.

[@r3dp9]

Luckily, sometimes we have objective facts to fall back on. Before T, the last 6 presidents started 27 wars (fewer depending on what you count as a separate war, but still). T started none, and withdrew (WITHOUT abandoning troops or equipment) from some existing conflicts. No attempts were made on the lives of those 6, yet inexplicably T is the most recent exception. "They" only go after the good ones: the ones who DON'T enrich the military industrial war machine, or DON'T support the abuse of fiat currency. On top of all that, none of the major troublemakers attempted anything while T was in charge. If a few mean remarks and trade restrictions are all it takes for world peace, I'll take it. But wait, that's not all! We also had a better situation at home, too! If there's a single objective reason to reject T besides hurt feelings, I've yet to hear of it.

[@nttea]

@@r3dp9 It's a pretty sweet deal, Russia helps Trump get elected and Trump reduces American foreign involvement. Trump should have used all those resources wisely to improve the lives of the average American and he could have even been reelected, but that healthcare plan he bragged about never materialized, i guess Trump was busy prioritizing foreign interests and never got around to that part.

[@zhshsG7]

​@r3dp9 as a European, I agree. T is all about cheap rhetoric, but the blue party is heavily trending towards the extreme left and we're seeing its results even in Europe, such as media censorship or pushing for equality of outcomes. They are intellectualizing the far left as normalcy, while denouncing all other political views (including T) as far right. I guess I'm happy enough the powerpoint guy dropped his weekly vid.

[@fortunecookie3765]

Ukraine is still trolling Russians... winning!

[@bryananderson3772]

Losing 2000 people a day is winning?

[@JackieLebows]

Dude it gets even better..they set up an administrative command post in Sudza to oversee this raid/incursion ... the guy they decided to put in charge is called "Eduard MOSKALiov" lmaooo Ukraine's knack for trolling russians in any and every capacity whenever possible is just amazing. Two and a half years into it and they still take every opportunity

[@rodgerfoshee7378]

​@@bryananderson3772 Sorry little guy, but your side lost, you bet on a dead horse. It happens. What you are doing to suggest that you're winning is just embarrassing your side. Have some dignity in losing, be the first Russian to say this is enough, you win, I'd rather not have my fellow countrymen wasted for this stupid war that putin chose. ... nah, that's not gonna happen.

[@katiescarlett2539]

I equally love your analysis and your wit!

[@ScottKenny1978]

Must admit, I did not have Second Battle of Kursk on my 2024 Bingo Card...

[@ScottKenny1978]

Was not expecting a serious tactical analysis to mention Warhammer 40k Death Korps of Krieg as a tactical model, either.

[@DLCummings]

The best long form perspective. Thank you, Perun.

[@draconicdragon]

And the oxymoron of the year award goes to: "Russian Intelligence"

[@itt2055]

In the past year Russia has made very little gains, I live in a city that has around 2 million people and Russia has not even gained the size of my city with the loss of just over 300,000 troops, 6000 tanks and around 8000 armoured personnel carriers. Russia only gains ground when Ukraine runs low on ammunition.

[@richardarriaga6271]

They are still gaining ground slowly in the east, but that is due to a lack of personnel and some equipment shortages.

[@tomk3732]

Why only 300,000? Why not 3,000,000???

[@itt2055]

​@tomk3732 Russia has lost 300,000 troops in the past year, this is the confirmed death toll but doesn't include troops that were incinerated, vaporised, buried or died from their injuries after being evacuated. There is no way to know how many Russian soldiers have been seriously injured but the general rule is that each death you times by 5 for seriously injured and 20 for minor injuries. The seriously injured will never fight again but as has been shown by the Russian soldiers themselves there minor injured are being sent back into combat while still on crutches and with wounds that still have stitches.

[@Noble713]

Sure, Russia has lost 300,000 troops.....how many Ukrainians have they killed in the process? If you pay attention the entire Ukrainian economy seems to be running out of military-age men....seems odd if they are taking comparatively-few casualties, doesn't it?

[@itt2055]

​@Noble713 the Ukrainian military has suffered very few casualties because they don't make stupid decisions. The majority of Russians that have died never even reached the Ukrainian lines, the Russian military continually sends its troops over the same ground using the same tactics that failed multiple times. The Russian military mindset is to use waves of troops to try and overwhelme the Ukrainian forces but the majority of Russian troops never get close enough to use their weapons. This is a very lopsided war that Russia can never win because the Russian military doesn't have any idea how to fight a modern war and lacks the infrastructure, competence and intelligence needed.

[@m.streicher8286]

i was excited about this upload last night😅

[@RealAutoNerd]

Who else is locking himself in the office to experience this magnificent presentation?

[@INSANESUICIDE]

Yes, enjoying this marvel of a PP presentation from the porcelain throne, it is the only part of my realm that is peaceful as a family man😂

[@gubmentchz3570]

3rd shift human skipping sleep to enjoy the magnificence that is our weekly update.

[@johnsmith1474]

You are on your own there bub.

[@Ben.....]

Listen once now, once in the afternoon, and once again on Wednesday.

[@ThomasZukovic]

Sponge bob square pants!

[@SawChick249]

I saw this and I've never clicked on a KZbin video so fast after a rough week this is much needed also I've just been looking forward to another Perun PowerPoint. Thanks much. 🥃

[@AmorEtPsyche]

Once again, very well put together information, and - as far as it goes - fun to watch. Thanks Perun!

[@sirraisin7797]

Perun out here with another banger. Love you, dude!

[@frakismaximus3052]

🫶

[@mwtrolle]

Thanks for an other informative, well researched and well produced video!

[@jamesrock9446]

Wait Russia is now complaining about an incursion to their border?

[@jameswoodard643]

I look forward to your presentations / briefings every week . Great job

[@theconqueringram5295]

I just found this channel, what an absolute gem!

[@pansepot1490]

Welcome!

[@guidosarducci209]

"preferably, commanded by general Lapin"! 😅

[@RedJadeArt]

I think russia was definitely working under the assumption that Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, and it was a mix of underestimating Ukrainian audacity (check, never underestimate Ukrainian audacity when it comes to making bold moves) and underestimating America’s willingness to permit them to do this. There’s no way the White House didn’t know about this and either approved of it, or committed to not condemning it which is basically the same thing.

[@proy3]

Given American behavior in this war thus far (AKA, slow walking literally everything bigger than artillery and javelins since the start of the war), I highly doubt the US knew about it or the Biden admin would absolutely have fought to keep them from doing it.

[@jeandaza1852]

That general Lapin line is pure gold

[@NicosM51]

TLDR;Perun is kind of happy but kind of sceptical too and wonders if any long-term net gain will come out of this.

[@natleniston9675]

thanks for your hard work mate. fully appreciate your knowledge and insight.

[@StarHecman]

Waiting for this report from Perun.

[@byterock]

Or maybe the simple two reasons 1) The AFU happens to be good at what they do and 2) to quote an AFU source "We are lucky they are so fucking stupid" 😆

[@matthemming9105]

Funniest moment of the war so far: "SHOIGU!! GERASIMOV!!! WHERE IS MY AMMUNITION!?!?"

[@larsmathiesen]

Thanks mate. Great presentation and looking forward to your follow ups as more details of the Ukranian aims come to light. Slava Ukraini.

[@danielbomgaars1008]

Always the best updates! Thanks for all you do

[@User-he6zd]

I agree RE:russian response. Seeems like they're all figjting internally on not being blamed for the breach and getting responsibility for once Ukraine is pushed out... without taking too much independent risk. FSB, military, individual oligarchs, all the way down to local politicans have fragmented responses and interests

[@michaelmorley7719]

Vranyo strikes again!

[@Iskelderon]

It's Russia, there's always at least half a dozen factions fighting each other instead of the enemy.

[@asterixky]

59:43 Shows how Ukrainian spirit has not been brokered. Best smile EVER

[@fishbaitx]

😊 yay weekly perun PowerPoint presentation

[@jacobno7400]

Amazing video! Thank you and the team for all the hard work!

[@joshainglis]

This was such a fantastic analysis of the situation. Thank you, @PerunAU for your dedication to solid, in-depth analysis of complex topics. I look forward to it every Monday morning :)

[@poseidon5033]

Here's a fun question: If I can take the territory of your country faster than you can conquer mine, who is winning the war?

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@poseidon5033 There a difference between whos winning and who will win the war. When germany launched barbaross it was WINNING the war but it havent won in the end.

[@poseidon5033]

@@ThomasZukovic Probably had something to do with the fact that the country they invaded secured lend lease materiel from the United States as a direct response.

[@Minerals333]

@@ThomasZukovicfunny you use Barbarossa as an example… if this war goes the way that did then Ukraine will be in Moscow shortly 😂

[@Hyrule_bathwater]

NEW PERUN DROPPED LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[@Sk0lzky]

17:10 this seems to be consistent with the overall Ukrainian on-the-ground info from the teams working with drones, they claim to usually modify the operational frequencies whenever they have some spare time for it. Give the DIY level of these modifications it's likely the frequencies tend to be non-standard, not just in Kursk but overall

[@FLUFFYCAT_PNW]

I've been so excited for Sunday this week, hoping you'd be covering this. You're such an incredible resource on this platform, and I personally thank you so much for making these videos.

[@romanmanner]

Really looked forward to this PPT.

[@burner8959]

People mistake Power Point as being inherently bad. It's not. It is bad when the presenter does not engage their audience and hold their engagement with entertainment. Perun does both, both visually and audibly. Add in the honesty, the pragmatism, and only minor efforts into speculative possibilities, it makes a compelling, informative watch that is hard to find anywhere else. Pretty sure that's why people sub and come back week after week.

[@harrisonbalduf3290]

That is why I am here!