Understanding Economic Cycles (Part III): The 18.6 Year Cycle & Coming CRASH ~ Rhythm of Real Estate

[@gregbohun6668]

Having followed Phil Anderson for some time & Property Share Economics, this is a great explanation of the cycle.

[@Jeff_Gunther]

Thanks Greg

[@PropertySharemarketEconomics]

Hi Jeff, great video and thank you for acknowledging the work of Phil Anderson, Fred Harrison and the team at Property Sharemarket Economics. One of the reasons why our forecasts are so accurate is that we overlay the sharemarket, economy and commodity cycles with the 18.6 year cycle. Let us know if you'd like to set up an interview for your subscribers, regards PSE Team :)

[@Jeff_Gunther]

Sorry I missed this comment. Yes, I will reach out to you about an interview. Thanks.

[@PropertySharemarketEconomics]

@@Jeff_Gunther wonderful. Please email [e-mail] and attention Cathryn Stacey. She will co-ordinate. Regards, PSE Team

[@prula]

Great Video!

[@mark19980501]

Hi Jeff, I hope you see my comment. This video was super useful for me as I am a 23 year old dude interested in the world of investing. Right now I have a very small net worth, so I focus on the stock market, but in the future I plan to join the real estate market. This is the first video I saw from you and I am looking forward to check out your other contents. I hope that you are doing well and you keep on sharing your knowledge despite the low number of viewers. Quality content is not appreciated by the masses it seems. Your presentation was easy to follow and very informative, and I appreciated the literature you recommended. I immidiately shared the video to my friends who might be interested.

[@mrwarbucks9717]

Great video extremely informative, thanks and keep up the great work 👍

[@v6j2g6]

Thanks Mr. t!

[@ndnrb_]

Interesting

[@andersonandrew112]

Where can I find data showing that the average house prices rose or fell during those periods? The charts I've found do no not line up with the 18 year theory.

[@broekhouder2274]

New world's tallest building: The Line Neom in Saudi Arabia. Check! Recession: Check! Land prices goe a bit down (in Belgium) check! Could be just a bump in the road but it does not look good..

[@libertysprings2244]

So real estate is tied to the lunar 18.6 year cycle?

[@samuelbain4055]

Great content!

[@davidk8457]

great stuff Jeff ... for stocks check out the Benner cycle ... 2026 seems to line up with your analysis.

[@rexpeters2928]

Enjoyed you presentations. I have two original Roy Wenzlick charts on my wall that use to hang in my grandfather's real estate development office in Wash DC. I also represented Homer Hoyt's son in the 1980's as a land broker selling his dad's 143 acre farm in Gainsesville, Va.rex peters

[@sholeh4334]

Excellent work.thank you so much for sharing your knowledge ,Windom and experience. .☺

[@kennethjones1458]

Huge issue with this is that the chart from a real estate perspective is already invalidated during this cycle. The pandemic was supposed to bring prices lower in your video and it didn’t. The prices nearly doubled. Now we are seeing pull backs.

[@spirtokouto]

Man, watch the video again - you didn't get it.

[@darrenwilson8921]

EXACTLY! Kenneth, let me explain - the mid cycle slowdown/recession involves a stock market correction and slower/below average economic growth, but NOT lower land prices. Why? SImply the stimuls provided by govts during this time is specifically designed to support the price of land. And in March 2020 govts went HARD on pumping money into the economy. It all ended up in land prices. Now that stimulus is withdrawn in a era of rising rates and inflation a normalising of land prices is occuring. This literally is the advantage you have over anyone else if you understand this cycle..

[@alexb8926]

Learned a lot! thank you!

[@Jordan_Belforto]

excellent video Jeff!

[@erikipsen1682]

13:17 Spot on!

[@user-pc7ef5sb6x]

So if real estate goes bust, so does everything else with it? Full economic collapse, right?

[@prasadandhari105]

Thanks it's good but I feel we should buy real estate shares rather than buying properties ,.... I am in India and HV brought real estate stocks like Godrej properties Macrotech developers and list goes on.....my special thanks to Akhil Patel and Phil Anderson on this theory

[@leemp337]

is your prediction still on point for 2025? inventory is low, rates are high, demand is still high, builders cant keep up, forclosures are about ramp up. my thought is the cycle got extended. What are your updated thoughts?

[@cocopandashop5674]

as i know, mid 2008 was the big housing crash then Sept 2008 financial institution collapsed. maybe 2027 we'll see next crash. it is also similar with benner cycle, he predict 2026 is the time to sell, good price.

[@DFree-wt9ed]

Hey Jeff, Still thinking 2025/26 or is this it?

[@MjJones2020]

The "North Node" also has an 18.6yr Cycle...Coincidence? Doubt it 😉

[@334trax2]

I heard of the housing cycle years ago. Now that my teenage daughter shows intrest in real estate I figured I would search this. If one was looking to buy rental properties, it would be wise to buy them up on the down cycle I assume? Also I always enjoy big moves in the stockmarket. Thanks

[@Jeff_Gunther]

It is very difficult (impossible) to precisely time a market. I think the most solid advice I would offer is to avoid the 'Winner's Curse'. Longterm thinking, with conservative leverage, and sufficient cash-flow to weather a storm are other good principles of risk management.

[@jamesruport2608]

I would like to see this expressed mathematically, why does it fail every 18 years. Why so consistent.

[@STORRMUZIK]

Because of the 18.6 year moon cycle

[@v6j2g6]

Here are links to the other 2 Understanding Economic Cycles videos: 'Part I, Business Cycle' kzbin.info/www/bejne/jnauoaJ5adCAhZo and 'Part II, Generational WEALTH Shift' kzbin.info/www/bejne/jWbMc3aoes-LqtU

[@Alessandro-jx1sn]

Is this cycle going to hit sooner? It looks like now is the common environment for a crash

[@shannawang]

Hi Jeff, I am looking to buy commercial real estate, specifically apartment buildings. They often calculate the value differently. Does your 18.6 year cycle apply to commercial real estate? Do you have any historic figures for apartments ?

[@annettesworth6501]

The commercial real estate cycle bottomed this year in 2023. You can extrapolate from there according to the charts in this video! Hope this helps!

[@soniachoa1603]

Could this 18.6 years cycle b related to the astrological lunar node cycle which is completed around every 18.6 years too?

[@eulogist8120]

Leave a comment if you’re in 2027 and the economy has collapsed

[@iulianfd]

👍

[@andrewpayette621]

Sell my home prior to 2025. Got it 👍

[@v6j2g6]

So, Andrew, I'm not super sure that's what I intended to say. You'll likely still need a home after 2025. ;) Unless over-leveraged, you may want to keep it. Check out 'Buying the Family Home' kzbin.info/www/bejne/apvJlYeaZ9SXjbc Oh, and thanks so much for posting a comment! It's rather obvious you were paying attention: Consider exiting over-leveraged or nominal cash-flow real estate investments prior to 2025 -- but don't panic in the short-run. Cheers!

[@andrewpayette621]

@@v6j2g6 I love your videos. Keep ‘em coming!

[@outofthebox5441]

Not if your at a 3%-+ 30 yr rate 😂