US-China Relations and the Taiwan Dilemma

Join this dialogue on November 9 to hear from Mr. Shiu Sin Por, Executive Director of the New Paradigm Foundation, to discuss US-China relations and policy towards Taiwan. Mr. Ronnie C. Chan, Chairman of Asia Society Hong Kong Center, will moderate this dialogue.
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[@chew5461]

Fantastic presentation. And such strategic thinking and accurate presentation of what China really wants! Not all those crap and lies expounded by Western politicians and their controlled media.

[@wk9378]

One of the best I have heard so far. Congrats.

[@Multipolarworld2003]

Winston Churchill once said, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.” the 🤡🤡🤡

[@francisng7447]

Shiu is overestimated China’s military capabilities, Taiwan has also built up a strong defensive capability and got a lot of help from the US. TSMC’s dominance in semiconductor also make China take over Taiwan too dangerous for the US.

[@tommyz0123]

Japan has the same ideology as the US. Why did the Plaza Accord happened? It is not ideologies. It is number one cannot allow anyone come close to it. This goes for the bully at school, at work, in life.

[@gerryball4298]

The crux of this discussion comes between 23 and 30 minutes. The gentleman on the left (Sin Por Shiu) nails what is actually happening.

[@JunKungMusic]

Whoever hired the sound company should be banned from doing events ever. How can you manage to make 2 mics clip and distort !! It’s so annoying to hear these gentlemen talk and very 5 words the microphone clips and distorts…. Shame of the sound guy !

[@Candyman003]

Is this the real Jun Kung? Love your music!!

[@michaelyu4962]

Sin pro shiu

[@taijistar9052]

Very few views of this! People in Taiwan apparently don’t watch this.

[@MetaView7]

If the USA pushed to the point of direct confrontation, which I believe would not happen because the Americans are not dummies, but if they do get to that point, the first point of encounter will not be TW, but Guam and Midway.

[@PhilipWong55]

The US national debt is more than $34 trillion, with 22% of it held by foreign entities. The US also has $40 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities and $26 trillion in unfunded Social Security liabilities. The US dollar is the dominant reserve currency, backed by its perceived strength, allowing the US to print unlimited dollars as long as the world maintains trust in it. The US dollar is the backbone of US power, and any actions that undermine confidence in the currency threaten to destabilize its position of dominance. Each unilateral sanction imposed by the US risk damaging the stability and credibility of the US dollar, leading to dire consequences for the nation's power and influence. The US is the only country actively undermining the strength of the US dollar. The freezing of Russia's $300 billion currency reserve by Western governments may lead countries to reconsider investing their funds in US Treasury bonds and finding ways to reduce their use of the US dollar. A significant portion of US dollars is held outside the US, estimated at 60-70% of all US dollars in circulation, due to its status as the dominant reserve currency and wide use in international trade and finance. The one trillion dollar trade deficit of the US is a consequence of being the reserve currency, as a strong dollar makes it difficult for US businesses to export goods and services while simultaneously making it easier for other countries to sell to the US. Countries are expending resources and labor making goods and shipping them to the US in exchange for green pieces of paper. The US is sending back mostly empty containers. The US budget deficit is $1.7 trillion in 2023 which must be paid for by selling more Treasury bonds. The interest on this debt is greater than the military budget. To pay the interest on its debt, the government sells more Treasury bonds, leading to a cycle of increasing debt. The US printing of dollars has been exporting inflation in other countries for decades, but will eventually increase US inflation. Raising interest rates to fight inflation decreases consumer and business spending, increases the trade deficit, and higher interest payments on government debt. Other countries will respond to the US raising of interest rate by raising their interest rate, risking global recession. The Plaza Accord addressed this issue in the past, but it will be challenging to implement such measures now. A well-run country collects taxes to fund essential services and infrastructure. In the US political system, wealthy corporations and individuals can lobby for tax breaks. The shortfall in funding for the US government has reached $34 trillion. Instead of collecting taxes from wealthy corporations and individuals, the government pays interest to them. The top 10% of earners (36%) and corporations (9%) together contribute 45% of total federal revenue. Banks hold Treasury bonds for their safety, liquidity, regulatory compliance, and potential profitability. When interest rates on Treasury bonds rise sharply, the decrease in existing bond values reduces liquidity and makes it harder for banks to raise cash quickly. This causes depositors to lose confidence, triggering a bank run. In response to the current bank run, the government is issuing Treasury bonds to raise funds to compensate depositors for any lost funds. There are $19 trillion in deposits in US banks. The estimated unrealized loss on US banks' financial assets is $1.94 trillion, while the total size of their equity is $2.1 trillion. SVB had a $15 billion loss, while their capital is $16 billion. Around 2,315 of the 4,800 banks are currently on assets worth less than their liabilities. It's a systemic issue. A similar issue is being played out with risker Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) valued at $12 trillion. The new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) helps prevent discounted bondholders from taking losses when they must urgently sell them. The BTFP accepts discounted bonds at face value to be used as pledges for loans to inject more money into the economy. Risking more inflation. It's a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi scheme cannot taper. We reached the can and there is no more road.

[@VincentAutos]

👍

[@francisng7447]

Shiu is too optimistic regarding China’s strength. He forgot about corruption inside China, just look at what is happening to Xi’s army now, it is in ruin because of corruption.

[@rickzeng1882]

Obviously the 2nd lady in the Q&A session took most the information on the Taiwan issue from the western media, and did not apply logics to such information. China lacking the landing capability? Check out who is the largest ship manufacturer in the world now? Chinese may not want to send their sons and husbands to war because so many years in peace? Logically, people in a country who is constantly at war should be more worn out by wars, instead of the other way around; and did you apply that question to people in Taiwan? hilarious...

[@胡麒麟-d8i]

👍👏👏👏👏👏

[@winglaileung]

老陳扮識嘢，其實只識條尾，身有架波味，對中華文明要再考考才知。所以可信度50%-