Value Betting - How to Find EV Bets on Betfair Exchange

[@euretesjasmindugsojr8543]

your true value is the key! if you know the real value in betting then your gud enough. thanxs sir

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

Yes value is KING

[@josephcox8276]

Do you keep track of whether selections are beating the closing line when it comes to the set & forget strategies or do you trust that the software provides value selections regardless of whether those selections end up beating it?

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

What do you mean by beating the closing line? The strategy provides the selections, the software formulates those selections based on the criteria given to it. So the value comes from if your strategy is good or not, the proof is in testing it and working it out.

[@josephcox8276]

@@BetfairTradingCommunity I mean the odds you get in at end up being better than what the odds are at the start of the event such as at kick off, so you beat the closing line. Seems like it’s not something you pay attention to which i’m glad to know because it was bugging me in regard to how much i should pay attention to whether my selections are beating it. Thanks for responding 👍

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

@@josephcox8276 if you are trading just prematch then it's vital but if you're trade is going inplay it isn't. For set and forget bets I just back in the morning so that I can get on with the rest of my day. One thing I do is make sure I ask for better odds if there are gaps in the market, don't just take bad prices because they are the only ones available at that time.

[@josephcox8276]

⁠@@BetfairTradingCommunityAh ok so it’s vital to beat the closing line for prematch set & forget after all? I guess i thought if the chance of 2 goals is 70% but the odds suggest 50% so you get in at odds of 2, it wouldn’t matter if the odds go above 2 because you’ve still gotten in at a price which suggests the outcome is less likely than it actually is (assuming the research was good enough to suggest the actual likelihood is 70%) . that said, i do understand it being vital

[@johnristheanswer]

The system at timeframe 12 mins has levelled out maybe because the backtesting showed a profit but the real world results have no real " value " and hence just float around up and down ?

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

I see what you are saying but the backtesting was actually done using real world results during it, so in this case that isn't what happened. I think it is almost certainly the Covid effect boosted the strategy then it came back to reality, partly because the creator of the strategy actually used it to lay over 1.5 goals before Covid, may look at that route if it carries on the way it has. Good line of thinking though for sure.

[@TheMaggsy1]

Value. This is interesting. Are these strategies that other have made?

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

Either ours or members who have shared them publicly. Thanks for watching!

[@GregoryKarashialis]

next time, can you show us a live trade of value betting? that game (liverpool v sheff) sheff went one nil up.... is that what you mean? to get in a trade when the favourite goes a goal down? along them lines?

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

Yep got a video coming up that does just that :)

[@jarkowski82]

Value!:)

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

Thanks glad you enjoyed the video!

[@bitdead99bitdead39]

Value 👊🏼

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

Thanks a lot for watching!

[@chrisbrooks6248]

Value

[@BetfairTradingCommunity]

Thanks for watching it all Chris!