Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Thursday Night Football Predictions and Picks | NFL Week 5

🏈 If you are looking for NFL Week 5 picks and predictions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons matchup, we have you covered! Our NFL football handicapping experts discuss the opening weekend from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs. the current odds.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Matchup - October 3, 2024
Date: Thursday, October 3, 2024
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
How to Watch the Game
TV Broadcast: Prime Video
Radio Broadcast:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 98 Rock WXTB 97.9 FM in Tampa.
Atlanta Falcons: 92.9 The Game (WZGC) in Atlanta providing live coverage.
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM NFL Radio.
Betting Odds (Subject to Change)
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Total: O/U 43.5
Team Hashtags
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: #GoBucs
Atlanta Falcons: #DirtyBirds
Fun Facts
NFC South Rivalry: The Buccaneers and Falcons have been divisional rivals since 2002, and while the Buccaneers have had more recent success, this rivalry has featured several close and exciting games over the years. Atlanta leads the all-time series, but Tampa Bay has won key matchups in recent seasons.
Mike Evans' Streak: Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is the only player in NFL history to start his career with nine consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons. His big-play ability will be crucial for Tampa Bay in this matchup.
Bijan Robinson’s Emergence: Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is already being touted as one of the most exciting young players in the NFL. His dynamic ability as both a runner and receiver has added a new dimension to Atlanta’s offense.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium: Known for its unique retractable roof and eye-catching architecture, Mercedes-Benz Stadium is one of the most impressive venues in the NFL. It features a massive 360-degree video board that enhances the game-day experience for fans.
This Thursday Night Football clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons is set to be a pivotal game in the NFC South. Both teams are aiming to take control of the division early in the season, and the stakes are high as they battle under the national spotlight. Whether you're tuning in on Prime Video, listening on the radio, or following along with your team’s social media, this is a must-watch game.
#GoBucs vs. #DirtyBirds-who will fly higher in this NFC South showdown? Find out on October 3, 2024!
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[@Wagertalk]

👉 Get Steve Merril's Picks: wt.buzz/sm 🏈 Live NFL Odds: wt.buzz/nfl-odds 📺 Rest of NFL Week 5 Videos: wt.buzz/2024nfl5 🏈 More Free NFL Picks: www.wagertalk.com/free-sports-picks/NFL 🤷‍♂ What is your BEST BET for NFL Week 5? Let us know in the comments below 👇

[@stevemerril1485]

Smash that LIKE 👍 button!

[@NRB_75]

Atl did not have 1 offensive TD last week..they better do something different when it comes to TB defense

[@stevemerril1485]

That is a good point

[@davidthornton7080]

Well they just did good game

[@CongressSux1776]

I parlayed Koo - over 1.5 FG made Robinson - anytime TD Bucky Irving- over 24.5 rushing yards.

[@williambrand5624]

Bijan so overrated

[@CongressSux1776]

@@williambrand5624 Maybe so, but the Bucs defense have given up a ton of running TD’s this season

[@Wagertalk]

@CongressSux1776, good luck with your bet!

[@realthor89]

@@Wagertalkit’s cannot be parlayed, anyone that knows betting knows that you can’t combine FG Props in a SGP

[@realthor89]

That’s a lie , you cannot bet that ina parlay

[@johnlim7720]

Fun fact...Thursday home teams are just 39-52 ATS since 2019, including 35-46 ATS in night Thursday games. In divisional games where both teams are on short rest, favorites and road teams have had the advantage ATS - with favorites 97-79-5 ATS and road teams 99-76-5 ATS last 20 years. Over the last three seasons, the under is 21-12 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game.

[@neilwilliams3639]

Falcons and under 6point teaser 😂😂. Can't bet fav or dog u just gave out conflicting info

[@neilwilliams3639]

I'm leaning falcons. This feels like the bills Ravens game. Why the undefeated team a dog. I'm fading, a Vegas trap special 😂

[@johnlim7720]

@@neilwilliams3639 The stat for favs and road teams I guess doesn't apply here. What does apply is Thursday home teams are 39-52 ATS. But this is a toss up game for me. Staying away from the side only playing the Under. Unders have been hitting in prime time games

[@neilwilliams3639]

@@johnlim7720 I just find it fishy that the undefeated team ML is plus odds money. We'll see if it cashes. I know the public will be hammering that line big time. Vegas don't donate 💸to anybody 😂

[@raneshabrown4110]

Exactly ​@@neilwilliams3639

[@StillKeepOnLosing]

Auto bet the dog in Kirk games as a teaser leg at any number. Wong teaser blah blah... It's Kirk! He wont beat or lose to a team by more then 1 possession.

[@stevemerril1485]

Good point, he does seem to play in a lot of close games.

[@davidsamora]

Steve- Just signed up for ur 7-day special- first time. No pressure! 😬😬😬

[@maphoon]

Im also taking the first half over the 21.5

[@patrickshaw401]

I already took the falcons but mostly because I picked them to win the Division. I need to see them get Pitts going and I’ll would be confident betting them.

[@stevemerril1485]

Good luck tonight Patrick

[@AndrewLewis-ks4pk]

I’ve won 13 out of 16 bets. Just basketball and football betting

[@rakeshp6498]

Steve...great analysis as always, any take on the total? I'm seeing it going over, Atl has a great run game, TB has a really good pass game, both playing in a dome ....smash the over?

[@stevemerril1485]

Two good defenses so far statistically, but I think those numbers are probably a bit misleading.

[@drew388]

yeah but falcons have one of the best secondary

[@rakeshp6498]

Atl has pretty good run d but not pass d, and in a dome baker Mayfield will easily go up and down the field

[@6wardSLASH]

@@stevemerril1485I agree

[@Cantstopthecaptv]

🧾 Buccaneers Vs Falcons OVER 41.5 🏈 I like tonight’s matchup against the opposing teams defense. With the laundry list of injuries coming into this game I think this game should be a shootout and it doesn’t hurt to have supporting trends! 🏈 The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta. 🏈 The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 16 games against Tampa Bay. 🏈 Since 2020, H2H the OVER is 5-3/62.5% with an Average Total of 45.8 pts 🏈 Since 2020, H2H the OVER is 3-1/75% with an Average Total of 45.6 pts when Falcons are HOME 🏈 Since 2014, H2H the OVER is 13-7/65% with an Average Total of 47.8 pts 🏈 Since 2014, H2H the OVER is 8-2/80% with an Average Total of 48.1 pts when Falcons are HOME

[@PR_Gio]

Hey Steve, great show as always. Still alive in a pretty large payout pool. Am I crazy to consider locking in the Falcons for this week?

[@stevemerril1485]

Is it an eliminator contest?

[@PR_Gio]

@@stevemerril1485 yes it is

[@bozbozman1575]

I took Jax got to take chances if you want to win

[@PRESTOSKYWALKER]

Yes

[@kevinpeters6860]

Fade the public is the bidness....👍

[@stevemerril1485]

🏈💲💪

[@church4516]

thanks dude ur the goat

[@6wardSLASH]

Thanks Steve! I Appreciate the free plays.. I understand people pay you for the info 🤝🏾💯

[@stevemerril1485]

Thank you for watching and commenting

[@frederickrobinson4332]

I think Bucs run defense is underrated... More than most of their rush yards allowed were to QBs... Hurts and Daniels both had over 80yds vs TB... Other than that not much given up.

[@stevemerril1485]

Very good point about the rushing quarterbacks

[@pridemyselfwithnontrolling5230]

Thinking of doing a 2 leg parlay involving spread and point total. Just dont know if i should smash the over or not. I HATE being on the under

[@frankjoseph4273]

Under & the Dirty Birds

[@CELTICS4DAWIN]

Bucs roll here thanks Steve for all you do...enjoy all your insights

[@stevemerril1485]

Thanks for watching Dennis, always appreciate it!

[@ericwillingham6956]

Yoooo Steeeve! My man

[@stevemerril1485]

What's up Eric, have a great weekend! 💲

[@gzstayreal]

I have TB +7.5 parlayed w/ Mayfield 175+ yards [-152]

[@neilwilliams3639]

@@gzstayreal nice

[@randyposs6281]

I am betting tampa bay

[@drew388]

take that money

[@bozbozman1575]

I took Falcons good luck

[@reginaldthornton5268]

Same scenario last year except the falcons had ridder and the game went over plus ridder had 2 fumbles I think cousins is a lot better than ridder I’ll take falcons ML

[@allstars617]

Hmmm are you a sheep? Maybe ATL is the right side. How do ppl keep doubting Steve???

[@michaelblankenau6598]

Don’t do it you’ll be very very sorry .

[@BobBelter-f4t]

Good info as usual, when do you sleep?

[@stevemerril1485]

Late at night 😴😁

[@mrvietnamesegq]

Thanks Steve, when will you have all season nba, nlf package up for sale?

[@stevemerril1485]

NBA Season Special is available right now at WT

[@omlette9214]

Steve, you’re literally the goat. Could listen to you TalkShop all day long. Can’t wait to be a lifelong customer.

[@senadomanic5433]

Please 😂

[@EA-ot8mj]

Cuck

[@stevemerril1485]

Thank you, always great to have you on board!

[@michaelritter7608]

Sheesh why dont you marry him

[@EA-ot8mj]

@@omlette9214 cuck

[@nojen7131]

Falcons 3-1 against Bowles? They’re actually 2-2 and one of those wins Bowles was resting all starters since the 2nd quarter in a meaningless game. So the 3-1 stat turns into 1-2.

[@stevemerril1485]

I saw 2-0, 1-1 last two seasons, but I'll double check.

[@adrianalfaroseo6511]

Thanks Steve.

[@stevemerril1485]

Thanks for watching Adrian

[@tommyruddo3373]

Straight: ATL -2 SGP: Godwin O 60 rec yds Baker O 10.5 rush Kirk O 225 Pass yds

[@Wagertalk]

@tommyruddo3373, good luck with your action!

[@grandmarquice3655]

I got Falcons ML.. Tampa is to be respected tho

[@stevemerril1485]

Should be a solid game

[@MonteMitchell]

Tampa all day

[@gurjitsingh8876]

Hello Steve , what about props if you have any for this game ?

[@stevemerril1485]

I do not focus too much on player props until the playoffs roll around, what props are you looking at this week?

[@gurjitsingh8876]

@@stevemerril1485 touch down and yards ?

[@FYDGMB]

@@stevemerril1485i love baker o1.5 TD.. thanks for all u do, can’t wait for NBA season also

[@stevemerril1485]

​@@FYDGMB I'm looking forward to NBA as well, probably the most consistent moneymaker in all of sports year after year 🏀💲🤑

[@justinmartinez5120]

Steve you rolling with the over or under? Considering tampa bay is injured and off a short week I think the under 48 is a great safe leg for a parlay considering 43.5 is the current line.

[@pobodysnerfect9971]

Agree - another trend towards the "under" play is Thursday night football has gone 1-3 in favor of the under this season.

[@johnlavie4164]

the monday under on titan dolfin game had to be the best pick that has ever lost ever- the ridiculous scoring at the end doomed us- it was probably me boarding the train that cost us!! love the show

[@fernandoferreira9334]

I took the over

[@johnlavie4164]

@@fernandoferreira9334 helps to be wrong

[@rickyrubio7934]

Tampa Bay for the w

[@tsfurlan]

Tampa Bay's for real. Did you forget they went into Detroit and beat them at home? They beat a really good Washington team and the eagles? And you saw what Detroit did against a good Seattle team. That's all you need to know. You're welcome

[@drew388]

and falcons were one pi away from beating the chiefs and bucs beat a very injured eagles while falcons beat them while they were healthy. good luck

[@ImagineBeingFat]

@@drew388chiefs have squeaked by multiple teams. The bucs won better games.

[@nerofl89]

@@drew388 The Bucs were injured too, they have had starters out since the beginning of the season, don't embarrass yourself.

[@Up1money]

Exactly ppl just don't want to admit Tampa is a good team it's week five tell me a team that has the most three wins impressive win then the bucs blowout wash how do they look right now Philly blow out I don't want to hear who was out for them they defense was healthy and we put up 30+ on them and then went into det and won what else to say 😮

[@Up1money]

​@@drew388that's your argument 😂 n u feel comfortable about that saints win too huh. No offense touchdown 😮😅

[@mosesgarro4599]

Steve what about the over and under?

[@stevemerril1485]

Too decent past defenses on paper, but not sure they've really been tested yet.

[@brysonkealoha162]

Rolling with bijan over 3.5 receptions and bijan to have 38 plus receiving yards let’s go bijan lol 😂 good luck fellas let’s slap the books this week

[@stevemerril1485]

Good luck Bryson

[@phantompicks412]

Good shit Steve , you like under Thursday ??? with all the weather stuff in GA even though, its a dome aren't we looking at a low game. How do I work for wager talk ?? I'm building my client list and my plays are crushing it, how did you get with wager talk and covers experts from back in the day

[@stevemerril1485]

CE and WT both reached out to me

[@AndrewLewis-ks4pk]

Home team is gonna win.

[@KnicksNYanks84]

Is public on the over or under?

[@Marcos-gj5cw]

Over

[@tonesmac2208]

Amen..Brother

[@stevemerril1485]

Thank you 🙏

[@autodidactic-i2i]

*** MLB, NFL, NHL Pre-season *** 10/3/2024 Thursday MLB > Milwaukee ML lean under 4 first 5 inning NFL > Buccaneers ML Over 21.5 total first half Prop bets * Chris Godwin anytime touchdown +150 * Bijon Robinson over 3.5 receptions * Kirk Counsins under 0.5 rushing yards * Tyler Allgeier over 34.5 rushing yards * Darnell Moonley over 3.5 receptions * Kyle Pitts over 2.5 receptions * Rachaad white under 3.5 receptions College football > Sam Houston-10.5 > texas st / Troy = over 57 NHL Pre-season > Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 Puckline > Bruins vs kings = under 5.5 a lean on kings ML > Flyers ML and a lean over 5.5 > maple leafs vs Red Wings = under 6.5 > Stars ML > Golden Knights ML and a lean over 6.5 Thank me later

[@Wagertalk]

@autodidactic-i2i, good luck with your wagers, and thanks for tuning in and commenting!

[@rickymaldojano9666]

You think Chris Godwin will get more than 40 receiving yards ?

[@terrellhairwr]

I wanna take it but to be safe I’ll take 25yrds

[@ChristianAgainstBolshevism]

@@terrellhairwr25 yards , what’s that -1000?

[@rickymaldojano9666]

@@ChristianAgainstBolshevism it’s -2000 lol 😂 i think it’s better to play the 40 lol or 50+

[@liwid1x724]

Drake London touchdown Rachaad white under rushing yards Drake London 5 receptions Falcons -1.5 👍🔐

[@stevemerril1485]

Best of luck, thanks for including some props, always appreciate it!

[@maphoon]

Taking the dirty birds 😊 thanks

[@stevemerril1485]

I agree

[@richmonddavis5068]

ATL didn’t score 1 offensive TD last week. I think TB take this by 6

[@anthonymartinez9624]

Then you take ATL. Typical Vegas trap. It's what they want you to think that they ain't gonna produce much on offense due to last week

[@allstars617]

Did you read what he wrote bro​@@anthonymartinez9624

[@larrygrasso6032]

I like Atl. here

[@stevemerril1485]

I agree 👍

[@PRESTOSKYWALKER]

I just checked it not even 5 minutes ago it says the bucks are underdogs

[@stevemerril1485]

Buccaneers have been underdogs all week in this game.

[@michaelminnie8925]

Tampa had only let up one pass td before this game. There was no reason to take Atlanta based on X’s and O’s. Letdown spot for Atlanta too after beating hated rival saints. Just got bailed out

[@TyrellAdeyemi]

Bucs are 2-2 the last two years under Bowles. Not 1-3.

[@MerchantKing429]

0:20 It’s Bucs AT the Falcons lol

[@stevemerril1485]

Correct, I was pulling all my numbers up at the start and misspoke.

[@ChrisBarry-h5h]

Atlanta's luck runs out here. They play way too close to the vest.

[@Wagertalk]

@ChrisBarry-h5h, good luck with your wagers, and thanks for tuning in and commenting!

[@GiovanniVillegas-qs2qf]

Well so much for your expert pick there Steve. Straight up loss. Unbelievable 😔

[@scottmoltzan8646]

Amazing how 1 week ago people thought Tampa was absolute trash because they got blown out by the Broncos and now after their last game they're all of a sudden "clearly" a better team than the Falcons. Definitely agree that the current odds on the Falcons are a steal, and I originally had no plans to play the game when the line was Falcons -3.

[@nerofl89]

Only people that didn't bother looking at the injury list of Tampa thought they were absolute trash, they had 4 key starters out on injury on the defense alone, not to mention the offense (20 total people out on injury). It wasn't surprising that they dropped a game to a coach that has played them twice a year for 15 years.

[@theopoliswaters2405]

Sounds more like a prop vs a spread play

[@wjking5219]

Tampa looked good, but Atlanta doesn't win that game without defensive and special teams TDs against New Orleans. I'll likely pass the side and dig into the props market.

[@stevemerril1485]

Tons of great games this weekend

[@wjking5219]

@@stevemerril1485 Tampa had them dead to rights, but Bucky fumbled the rock and Tampa's defense collapsed in O.T. Nice call on the Falcons. Captain Kirk was NUTS! I laddered Ray Ray up to 60+ so that prop panned out, but the rest of my reads were crap. I expected Irving and Allgeire to do something, but that game script was toast less than 10 minutes into the game. Luckily I live bet a couple Mooney reception props to squeak out a small win on the night. The bankroll is big enough now and I've seen enough so I'll be taking the plunge on one of your 30 day all access passes. Assuming that continues to pan out, I'll take a look at an annual pass. Keep up the great work.

[@fernandoferreira9334]

YES I GOT ATLANTA

[@stevemerril1485]

👍

[@ChrisDavid-e7j]

Bucks and the under I am fading the free play

[@Playmakerrob]

I am with you there did alternate under 55

[@LawrenceCaplan]

Same

[@ferdinandkibor3763]

Tampa defense?? Drop or ride??

[@eddienash2095]

Who would pay for betting advice that is littered all over the internet for free?

[@EeskiDUB]

Atlanta needed a pick 6 n a special teams scoop n score to beat the Saints, tell the whole story Steve!! Bucs love to blitz n Cousins no likey- Atl is 26% on 3rd down conv’s n Bijan is also iffy. Early divisional games r tuff, Bakers been sacked 15x but does Atl have the pass rush to take adv?..beatn Philly dont say much n yea they lost to Denver but now look at Bo n the boys...I’m stickn w props NFC south is yucky. BOL yall 🍀 🍻

[@Wagertalk]

Thanks for tuning in @EeskiDUB and taking the time to comment. Good luck this weekend.

[@orlandoflorida8888]

Hey, great review, I just don't know why you look sweaty all the time, other than that, excellent. Thank you

[@mylesmyers8969]

Atlanta’s playing pretty good football? Their two wins are by a combined three points. They won last week but certainly didn’t deserve to - inexplicable muffed Saints punt for TD & tipped pick-6. Didn’t run a single play in the red zone. Respect your opinions Steve but don’t agree with that take

[@mylesmyers8969]

When you factor in who each team has played, which DVOA does (this statistic accounts for schedule), Tampa Bay ranks 14th in DVOA while Atlanta ranks 15th…

[@MrKingNica]

It’s amazing how these cappers think these games are on the up and up

[@Jaynutt206]

Tampa

[@feherpeter7051]

Idk , taking the buccaneers -1.5 at 2.0 . Bol. .

[@EA-ot8mj]

Where is Ross the boss videos???

[@alyssagomez2188]

Over 43.5 is easy money

[@cameroncook3863]

Atlanta

[@stevemerril1485]

I agree

[@jordylawson3949]

Tampa has some key injuries… not so for the Falcons. I’m taking the Falcons

[@Wagertalk]

@jordylawson3949, good luck with your bet!

[@jordylawson3949]

@@Wagertalk thanks. I enjoy your stuff

[@beelzebub634]

falcons ftw

[@societyagainsttrump1-6-21]

Buddy spent more time promoting his business than providing any analytical information😂 but expects people to pay?? Math ain’t mathing for somebody who’s been in the game for years.

[@PRESTOSKYWALKER]

What is this guy talking about is the more balanced team when they're 3 and 1 and just beat the eagles...😅

[@stevemerril1485]

Balance refers to run pass ability not overall record

[@michaelminnie8925]

Playing so well and not scoring a td last game. Smh Of course the refs aided in this one.

[@masenmitchell2880]

Anybody who actually watches games will realize the falcons can’t score touchdowns. You can’t beat the Bucs with field goals !!!

[@Wagertalk]

Thank you @masenmitchell2880 for tuning in and taking the time to comment!

[@Toes3083]

Someone give me a good bet for this game

[@SwagMuffin567]

Bijan yards, Bijan anytime td

[@Lavanzel]

Pitts will shock y'all this game.

[@tannerhornsby5595]

😂😂😂

[@Lavanzel]

@@tannerhornsby5595 I told you Pitts will shock y'all. I won $6k adding him for Alt Rushing yards

[@Lavanzel]

I told y'all!! 80+ yards

[@tannerhornsby5595]

@@Lavanzel dog Kirk cousins had 509 passing yards I’m not surprised fucking Darnell Mooney looked like an all pro

[@allstars617]

why do people keep doubting steve??? because they are the sheep!!!!

[@Choppy8638]

ATL WINS 17-14

[@wsdeejay86]

TB ML, ATL's offense trash 🚮

[@Wagertalk]

@wsdeejay86, good luck with your bet!

[@drew388]

yet atl will win

[@LawrenceCaplan]

It's for NFC South division, 26 - 20 Buccs. Tampa doesn't want to share no. 1 NFC South division spot with Atlanta. Buccs + 1.5

[@LawrenceCaplan]

@@drew388Opinions vary

[@drew388]

@@LawrenceCaplan well it is what it is

[@picks1732]

Falcons lost ...steve a clown

[@beelzebub634]

37-30 OT Falcons

[@davidthornton7080]

Falcons win

[@beelzebub634]

falcons won

[@johngiag2011]

We lost

[@Tony314h]

Its gambling, all the stats sound good but we never know how it plays. Bucs could get blown out or falcons. Its all a risk

[@Wagertalk]

@Tony314h, good luck with your action!

[@mrcutlass7133]

Steve the falcons are horrible

[@NickyTesla]

Falcons just suck though...

[@stevemerril1485]

Should be a good game this Thursday night

[@drew388]

so then when we win what will that say about the bucs 😂😂

[@jackdaron7775]

@@drew388y’all’s kicker sucks

[@jackdaron7775]

@@drew388yeah nah bro yall just suck fr

[@jackdaron7775]

Falcons and buccaneers overrated 😂 meither of yall doing nothing in the post season

[@Eliezer-i1f]

Tampa gonna Die 2mor nite 😂

[@sunshinewaterandwoods1033]

Money !! $$

[@michaelminnie8925]

Playing so well and not scoring a td last game. Smh Of course the refs aided in this one.