Wall Street Rattled by GDP Data

Jim Caron, Co-CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management breaks down the latest GDP data. He speaks with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.
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[@MonetaryRebel]

Slower growth doesn't mean inflation will slow down necessarily. There's this thing called stagflation that no one alive even understands.

[@hanzn6784]

Seriously they talk as if it's completely impossible. When it happens they will say "No one could have predicted this"

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Stagflation was not facing a BRICS Wall in the 1970's. This time they need to pay for $34 trillion of borrowed Money. The USA dug this Money Pit. Economically this time the US Treasury might not have a ladder long enough to emerge from the hole.

[@almdrs]

Isn't it "funny" that we, the people, knew something was wrong while the specialists, the consulting firms etc were telling us that everything was great?

[@joyful-nachos]

Greatness was transitory.

[@PoliticiansHonorCode]

Why did Bloomberg tell their audience GDP "grew" by 1.6%? The Bureau of Economic Analysis did not use the word "grew" in their 2 page press release. Rather, they used the word 'increased" 31 times! The US economy is not primarily growing organically thorough productivity, innovation, or a positive trade balance. It is just primarily increasing in size through debt (national, local, corporate and personal). This is not good! In financial issues there is a difference with a distinction between Grew and Increased. Hopefully, Bloomberg will not change the word, for whatever reason, the source uses - unless possibly they want to misled their audience.

[@brianvanwinkle8951]

Take out military spending and it actually shrank.

[@christopherrichardwadedett4100]

Print baby, print! Feed the war machines!

[@gavinmc5285]

Print is an operative function.

[@sirrobinofloxley7156]

Monkey go print

[@peterponcedeleon3368]

Inflation is going back up. While at the same time the economy is stalling. Stagflation.

[@user-mx9tu9xd1b]

Groceries higher. Gas higher. News. Nothing to see here

[@wanderingquestions7501]

China’s 2024 1st qtr annualized GDP was 5.3% beating priced 4.6%

[@Asheve]

And Russia 7,7% February

[@pablovonduckbill7802]

Economic cooling but the gov is still printing money for ukraine and other stuff. Doesnt that screw up the whole reason they are increasing rates?

[@zimpreneur]

That’s a lot of words without saying much.

[@tracybrovan3997]

🤣

[@gavinmc5285]

Bonds. Equities. Returns. Treasuries.

[@gavinmc5285]

Mismatch. You don't want it.

[@BrandonClark-StocksPassports]

YAWN This happened during the first quarter of LAST year in 2023 and the stock market rallied the rest of the year. Its very simple, a slow down in GDP increases Fed's chances of rate cuts because they don't want a recession. Which means you should use this as a opportunity to get in. I see why a lot of you guys don't make money doing this lol

[@nickvin7447]

I can see why a lot of investors lose a lot of money.

[@bobbywagner-rk8cc]

@@nickvin7447 the guy is write. Fed cuts coming soon will cause a 2nd half rally.

[@nickvin7447]

@@bobbywagner-rk8cc Morons who cannot spell "write" make no money. Enjoy being broke.

[@96blackflag]

let us see your p&l then?

[@nickvin7447]

@@bobbywagner-rk8cc This guy doesn't know the difference between "write" and "right".

[@jordanhughes7966]

Stagflation?

[@robbetts]

Wow. Dude is rocking a pair of Grado open-back headphones. Odd choice for this application but respect for using a great product from right here in Brooklyn.

[@I.LikeCars]

Saw that too. Those are cool!

[@monkeylee4818]

why is the unemployment rate low and inflation high, and GDP growth is still low? how could that add up?

[@jaynycha1705]

1. Employment in lower wage jobs = less GDP 2. High inflation do to price gouging and consumers buying on credit card because of said price gouging.

[@cinpeace353]

When the government is spending over $2T a year, it is hard to avoid inflation. Most of people in US are working in service sectors. GDP growth depends on high productivity while US doesn't produce much other than weapons. The economy is supporting by debt. 😅

[@gavinmc5285]

Less consumer spending and a squeeze on government debt? Rise in cost of living, goods and services? Slow or no wage increases? Increases in petty crimes? Higher levels of contract security? Increasing legal issues? Diversification of healthcare challenges?

[@Kukura001]

The unemployment rate includes part-time job

[@eh7599]

No reason to lower rates! Don't cry

[@JoePolaris]

100% , cut the debt, deflate the balance sheet. 💸

[@leovenier1011]

Super

[@meandshe1518]

Drivel.

[@paulbunyan9436]

Steady as she goes...

[@brianvanwinkle8951]

I call BS

[@gavinmc5285]

On...

[@6BlackWings]

Huh? Aren't we talking about stagflation at this point? The 70s want their economy back.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

The 1970's demonstrated what 25% reduction of supply from Middle East Oil producers could do. OPEC+ appears to include Russian Oil? In the 1970's the USA was selling Wheat to Russia. Today the Farm Lobby screams for Russian Fertilizer. Nickel markets appear to need Russian Minerals. BRICS appears to notice around 70% of available resources, within their Trade Group. The Currency was adjusting to proving the Fiat Dollar would retain support from the US Treasury. That Stagflation did not have Treasury Debt putting out a trillion bucks of interest. This Stagflation is not yo Daddy's Stagflation...... Capitalism has exceeded it's Limitations.

[@gavinmc5285]

It's still with the 80s

[@jeffashcraft2388]

Time for a government stimulus to balance the economy

[@jeffashcraft2388]

That's what we have been doing many times

[@jeffashcraft2388]

More tax payer funded handouts

[@cinpeace353]

The government have just signed a $95B deal to fund the Military Industrial complex to stimulate the economy.

[@gavinmc5285]

UC

[@elsonsti]

Stimulus=printing money=chronic poison

[@jeffashcraft2388]

Inflation down Less people buying More people homeless Maybe im too uneducated

[@gavinmc5285]

🎼cost of living, cost of living

[@peterdangelo5882]

PCE inflation was up 3.7 when expectation was 3.4. However, GDP is shrinking. This is stagflation - had it in the 80s with Carter. Slowing economy and higher inflation. Had to raise interest rates to 18 percent to crush it. Good memories, you will enjoy it. These guys want a rate cut. Yeah right - no cuts this year.

[@DsonicJ5672]

Right when Biden proposes a 44% capital gains tax and tax on unrealized gains. Carter2.0

[@AloeVeraJuiceJuice]

Agree, no cuts

[@acornsucks2111]

@@AloeVeraJuiceJuice no cuts, save the dollar from dem spending.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Carter was not Blessed with a growing $34 trillion debt issue. The Banks had not quite figured out how to milk the FED for enough Credit, to enable the construction of a lot of Planes and Tanks. Now both weapons look like a Pac Man target that just blows up. Stagflation in the 1970's saw US Grain shipped to Russia. This round seems to indicate 70% of available resources now are within the BRICS Trade Group's Associate Nations? Last time this kind of Stagflation came around, the Wiemar Deutschmark was plentiful. But we have plastic, and $17 trillion Consumer Debt. This is a different ball Game.

[@ssuwandi3240]

Except back then during Volker the debt to GDP was much lower than the current 120% ratio. Powell's tool seems less effective to crush the inflation as the fiscal growth has literally taken over the private lending. The Fed needs to work out a new lever called Back to Work in the Office or get taxed higher!

[@nickvin7447]

Stagflation

[@danielhutchinson6604]

So who is going to buy Houses from Speculators? Average Wage Growth at 1%, inflation more than 3X that figure. Where is the disposable income to assemble a Down Payment of 10%? Most Bankers like at least 30% down. Meanwhile the FED seems to Understand the Treasury Note Sales, are not doing much to support Dollar Note distribution. So Banks have even less Liquid assets to distribute. Not the Same Stagflation as the 1970's.

[@nickvin7447]

@@danielhutchinson6604 It doesn't have to be the same as the 70's. Its still stagflation.

[@SportyGeek12]

@@nickvin7447 this guy gets it

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@nickvin7447 They seemed to have recovered from that round. This time looks quite different. I could afford Motorcycles in the 1970's.

[@nickvin7447]

@@danielhutchinson6604 That's because the price was low, even with the interest being high. It's the same thing, slowing to no economic growth, stagnant real wage growth, and inflation roaring back. Stagflation.

[@briantep458]

the market is down because of META, otherwise markets would have rallied on weak gdp

[@cinpeace353]

Bad news is not always good news. The cut is already priced in. Corp. Earning is the thing to watch.

[@gavinmc5285]

If META is down and GDP is slow _and_ inflation is climbing, then what is the function of governance?

[@lastChang]

In 2023, real China's 🇨🇳 economy shrank -3.5% as opposed to 5.2% expansion as officially announced. - This year, they will just publish a 5% growth regardless of their economy.

[@donkeychan491]

LOL...BS. Goldman Sachs predicting 40% upside in Chinese stocks. I'm already up 30% on the Chinese stocks I bought 6 weeks ago, in the midst of the m0ronic "China is uninvestable" MSM/CIA narrative

[@AhmedIbrahim-or5dg]

They produce more than they consume

[@newyear8961]

How you ever though that where your are getting your information is wrong?

[@martinjrtremblay]

@@AhmedIbrahim-or5dgsounds like the USA

[@AhmetTekin101]

​@@AhmedIbrahim-or5dgThay don't know how to plan.

[@theodorearaujo971]

The "markets" (as if we have allowed markets to operate since 2009) are delusional.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Credit appears to be great? Consumer Debt is at $17 trillion. The Government counts plastic spending as real money.

[@gavinmc5285]

Reality test then

[@ArabicReja973]

Chinese property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing. - Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down. - Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades. - Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019. - Consumer prices are experiencing deflation. - Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record. - Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries. *Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol Where does the growth come from?

[@stevenroger2554]

Just pulling numbers out of your ass

[@scottpollan6364]

"Who could have seen this coming" -shocked Pikachu

[@gavinmc5285]

The entire animé universe didn't get it either

[@WiCapitalco]

Wall st analysts have been WRONG every step of the way. Maybe we should stop investing in their horrible models?

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Do You believe the Government Statistics since 1990?

[@mniay]

Was the GDP inflation-adjusted? Otherwise with inflation above 3, doesn't that mean we were negative on a real basis?

[@francismarion6400]

In the real world, yes

[@gavinmc5285]

If so does that imply a false bottom? Because that would affect the landing.

[@mniay]

@@gavinmc5285 I was always in the hard landing camp. I never believed we hit a bottom. I think people always underestimate how long it takes for things to permeate the economy, especially during an election year.

[@godzillamothra5983]

economy slow, inflation jump, yeah it is that scary word, STAGFLATION

[@francismarion6400]

Stagitory

[@gavinmc5285]

Stag party goes deer hunting

[@LamarPassmore]

"robbing people of their economic liberty also robs them of all sorts of other freedoms."

[@gavinmc5285]

That's true

[@twisted4872]

ha ha ha . . . .really poppets . . .you have to stop adding the "ming" to the "Boo"

[@gavinmc5285]

Add L for Bloo then

[@aguyinavan6087]

Naw, this is just a natural outgrowth of the Build Back Better plan and Chips act. Government pumping money into building infrastructure, but that infrastructure won't produce effective GDP for 2 years. All the chips facilities, Micron, TMSC in Arizona, Intel. All those buildings are being built but no chips being sold. Time to reap, and a time to sow. We're in a sowing moment.

[@gavinmc5285]

B³C

[@user-dr2nt1fg1p]

Russia - 6% China -5.3% Usa -1.6%😂😂😂😂

[@acornsucks2111]

Russia's economy is not in the top ten.

[@donkeychan491]

Americans get so excited about having such an underperforming economy ... sad.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@acornsucks2111 Russia has Resources. The USA pissed away domestic sources by the 1980's. You need resources to make things. You need things to sell to maintain a positive GDP. How is the USA actually doing? If you are counting Fiat Currency Numbers, how well is the support for the FED holding up? Fiat Currencies can tumble pretty quickly......

[@Asheve]

@@acornsucks2111ye it’s top 5

[@gavinmc5285]

Nobody's buying under 5%

[@bluefish7940]

😂😂😂 1.6 % China 5.3% and China in troubles

[@erikson024]

Because china is still a shithole in terms of gdp per capita

[@gavinmc5285]

Would you be selling over 5%?

[@acornsucks2111]

Inflation control is more important that stock portfolios.

[@cinpeace353]

If you know all US major states are issuing bonds to buy stocks, you won't be as confident as you are in your statement. Market crash could mean facing bankruptcy in some states.

[@gavinmc5285]

Relative to yield

[@69pepe420]

stagflation. buy bitcoin

[@gavinmc5285]

Keep your dollar receipts