Rivian, The Biggest Bubble In History?

In this video we go over Rivian, a recently IPO'ed electric vehicle startup with a valuation of over $100 billion Despite the high valuation the company has thus far delivered a grand total of 156 cars. Investors are betting on this company becoming the next Tesla. But it this even remotely realistic?
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[@althunder4269]

the entire stock market is nuts now.

[@loluser124]

deez nuts gottem

[@samsonsoturian6013]

When was it sane?

[@evanc4810]

@@samsonsoturian6013 April 20, 1969

[@natevanderw]

Just gotta wait .2-5 years and then can short.

[@lionheart93]

all markets are crazy

[@LizardSpork]

Most of the excitement is coming from their association with Amazon who, let's face it, probably has no shortage potential replacements in the wings if Rivian fails to deliver.

[@22phan]

WORX developed a electric van for the post office in 3 years

[@mukamuka0]

@@Jacquellynnn By the time Amazon brought Rivian, they probably be worth no more than $10B. lol Bezos is cunning. If Rivian succeed, Amazon make a killing. If Rivian failed, They can have it for a dirt cheap.

[@The3nd187]

Nikola had a partnership with GM

[@MegaShanes1]

Dont forget Workhorse.

[@thevinceberry]

delivering 100,000 Amazon vans by 2030, which is almost 10 years, do not sound good

[@chessdad182]

One has to be shocked that there is a company that Cathy Woods feels is too speculative.

[@nomadvehr827]

Imagine that... someone like Cathy Woods saying that means only one thing: Pass

[@casualsuede]

Cathie Woods funds are in the toilet right now. Glad I sold ARKK before it tanked.

[@HarshDeshpande91]

She thinks Tesla is worth 2.5 trillion. How is a tesla competitor worth less than 5% of what tesla is supposed to be worth overvalued?

[@soquick69]

@@casualsuede Arkk is up 481% since launching in 2014. YTD they are down around 5%. I don't understand how that can be considered anything but a success.

[@HarshDeshpande91]

@@soquick69 Most people did not make 481%. Most of the investment into arkk only came in in 2020. The underlying stocks in the fund blew up beyond all reasonable market valuations because they were all small cap low liquidity stocks. So it was a self fulfilling prophecy. The actual money weighted rate of return (net of flows) is actually much lower than that.

[@Alexwhatisit]

Hey, atleast Rivian has actually delivered some vehicles to customers, Nikola needed to push their junk down a hill and pretend it worked.

[@jurado1010]

Can't believe that trash company hasn't gone to zero yet. That and Rivian's valuation says a lot about the bubble of EV stocks.

[@thadlm2698]

They delivered them to employees only correct? If that’s correct, does that “really” count?

[@ristekostadinov2820]

Not just that, Rivian stayed private until they put some vehicle on the road. Even if they never suceeded as long as they're private, unexperienced investors wouldn't have the chance to buy their bs.

[@thadlm2698]

@@ristekostadinov2820 Good point👍🏿

[@kurt17]

Lmao still got 90 shares of nikola, piece of joke company

[@TMTFLOYDMAYWEATHER]

They're trying to appeal to campers when the truck barely gets 300 miles a charge and that's without using the gimmicky grills and camping equipment. Make sure you bring extra batteries when you go camping 😂

[@dixter1652]

they have a add on option for a camping tent... they only want $2600.00 for the tent.... and if you get the larger batt then the truck costs $90,000.00

[@nemeanlioness]

took a trip to great basin in NV. 300 can get you there but not out. well unless you plug the rivian into one of the locals house and dont get shot.

[@azeton128]

Right? Where do you charge your ev off road? The idea is just plain dumb or am I missing something

[@dixter1652]

@@azeton128 I like EV vehicles.. have several EV bikes... let me tell you... an EV bike is a heavy bike... you run out of battery on an EV bike miles from home you are going to get a workout of your life peddeling that back home (ben there).... when you run out of a battery on a EV truck you are stuck for a long long time or its on the bed of a tow truck.... EV's are cool but they have HUGE issues...

[@thadlm2698]

@@dixter1652 😂😂I can just picture you huffing and puffing while peddling that heavy electric bike home…

[@Megasunami]

They have a shot of becoming the next Nikola.

[@PapiBocaChula]

or fisker.

[@kitn.6130]

Amazon invested a lot in this company

[@justlisten82]

I don't think they are like Nikola because they are not allegedly lying about practically everything. However with that said, I would not even touch this stock at this price with someone else's money. They may play a small part if they do not go bankrupt in the future. This is currently a 5 dollar stock imo.

[@darksam1212]

The joke is solid, but these cars drive forward, lol.

[@evanserickson]

LOL! Good one

[@letsgobrandon416]

Hi from a year in the future: One of my coworkers took delivery of his Rivian a few months ago, and I see them on the road somewhat regularly now. Not a normal sight for sure, but certainly more common than the Lambos and Farrari sightings around here, which are surprisingly common in the greater Boston area. Doesn't mean they aren't a bubble, but they are producing product that is getting into customer hands, so not vaporware.

[@jarbaralhut1810]

From a year and 5 months in the future: I see them pretty regularly in my city, at least 5 or 6 on a normal day.

[@Glenintheden]

I believe it can pull a 5 ton load, but I highly doubt it can pull it for very long. Battery powered vehicles tend to lose range very quickly as cargo load increases. There's a reason why there are no battery powered over the road semis or freight trains.

[@codycast]

Uh Tesla semi?

[@Glenintheden]

@@codycast , Are there any Tesla semis driving heavy loads across the country, going over mountain passes, then delivering those heavy loads? I've certainly missed that press release. Name a single trucking company using such a truck to make over the road deliveries.

[@antonioakiki3716]

@@codycast they dont really exist though and there is no info about payload capacity which is the most important aspect for trucks. Battery tech needs to advance more to make elctric trucks viable. Today they are too heavy limiting payload and have range concerns

[@codycast]

@@antonioakiki3716 like with Tesla cars (I have a new S and a Y) there are use cases where they don’t work well. I’m sure there are cases that don’t work well for the Semi. But there are a lot of use cases where it is much better than it’s diesel counterpart.

[@schnappueber]

@@codycast Tesla Semi is (at least) two years away from production. The Tesla Semi might change the game, but calling it a viable option before it actually existing or Tesla publishing relevant performance data is non-sensical.

[@xXAnthony619Xx]

That was the sickest point. Equating wish being the next Amazon with the Rivian Tesla comparison

[@Studeb]

Well, if you want to compare Tesla to Amazon, then it would have to be the Tesla of today to the Amazon of 15 years ago. That's how long you will have to wait for it to make a profit comparable to its market cap, if it stays the same as now.

[@moodynoob]

I wish you could employ the same level of healthy skepticism when analyzing Tesla. Don't get me wrong, Rivian's IPO price is ridiculous, but Tesla's market cap has no basis in reality and those investing in Rivian are hoping that same momentum will apply (especially after how well received Rivian's trucks were)

[@AudiTTQuattro2003]

...you got that right. Like throwing stones in a Tesla glass house.

[@PeterMikeSolomon]

Tesla's shipped more than 165 cars though...

[@ha2kon539]

@@PeterMikeSolomon Sure, but they are still extremely overvalued tho

[@BradKwfc]

TSLA price has nothing to do with value and everything to do with the cult following they created.

[@vengefulspirit99]

@@PeterMikeSolomon Tesla is worth more than the next 9 largest car brands combined. Tesla sold 500k cars in 2020 and is on track to sell around 900k cars in 2021. They make 99% of their gross profits from auto sales. They're a car company. You're paying like 1000x+ ebitda

[@zodiacfml]

a valuation worth a successful Rivian with energy products, 10 years from now. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops to half in less than a year from now. While the van partnership with Amazon is nice, it is low margin. They should have a family van prototype by now considering Tesla won't touch vans

[@mt2nv1]

People forget Tesla was producing 1000 vehicles per day when they hit $110 B valuation. Rivian is producing 2 per day. They are also producing vehicles that have less market penetration potential. They have a great product, but at most will sell a fraction of the vehicles Tesla sells. They also don’t have charging infrastructure or a diversified energy business to help ensure positive revenue.

[@RoqueExclusives]

I agree. But now that Tesla will open their charger to other EVs, it won’t matter as much. Will it?

[@lancetruong4957]

Rivian is starting to deploying its own charging infrastructure near adventure/ camping location. At least that's their plans.They are copying Tesla.

[@mt2nv1]

@@RoqueExclusives it will mean more value for Tesla. The experience will still be better in a Tesla.

[@mt2nv1]

@@lancetruong4957 true. I like their approach, but it’s a bit flawed. Their chargers will have a terrible ROI if they build them in remote locations/trailheads. Also it took Tesla years to build its current 30,000 super chargers globally.

[@kosiokoye6271]

Yoo lolz that was a low key savage "thinking wish will be amazon" bro 😅😅

[@georgesteffey8375]

Yeah that line was cold

[@10K-j7e]

I say one of them the other day in midtown Manhattan. It was blue and I didn’t know what brand of car it was. My first thought that it was some sort of Honda/ Cyber Truck hybrid.

[@partypooper8198]

we are in a time where money is inflating so fast that people dont care about the price of anything anymore. it is what it is and the underlying value doesn't matter "because we are investing for the future product and not what they currently offer"

[@yellowdog2842]

Rivian should sell the delivery van to UPS and FedEx too. I just tripled their sales

[@akin242002]

That is a good idea, especially FedEx.

[@nemeanlioness]

there's going to be a lot of Rivian retail bag holders. the poor saps.

[@Andrew-dy1xi]

diamond hands, apes hold strong, diamond hands

[@predatorshelby5780]

Thats what they said on release day and im up 30% now. Sucks you didn't have the balls to take a swing. Poor sap

[@nemeanlioness]

@@predatorshelby5780 you want to compare guts? I'm up a 105% in last 6 months. so what.

[@nemeanlioness]

that was fast, thought it be at least a week. is this the start of bag holding, for the sake of retail investors let's hope not.

[@dhimankalita1690]

🤡 to 🤡 communication

[@shinsource]

Well, whoever put in that initial 100 mil is gonna be laughing to the bank when lockup expiry ends on RIVN in May next year.

[@samsonsoturian6013]

They might go full retard and hold...

[@xiaoka]

@@samsonsoturian6013 can still just sell 5% and be filthy rich.

[@lombardo141]

Whoever put in the initial 100 million is already rich. Lol

[@genericgoat1475]

Let’s be real, if you have a hundred mil to put into an unknown company, then you’re probably already filthy rich

[@tunaktunaktun8545]

Almost 1000x in profits

[@heywoodjablowme4612]

Why is this surprising? Tech stocks followed this pattern in the 90’s.

[@brixan...]

Because it's not the 90's?

[@hungchau7064]

I just saw one park in front a normal looking house in a basic normal suburn in CA. It was a very cool truck indeed.

[@edgare4291]

Careful buying short puts on this one The market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent.

[@CobaltLobster]

Long puts all the way on this garbage. Buying short puts is the same as going for short $ROPE.

[@Majin10]

@@CobaltLobster lol long puts yeah keep biting that premium bozo

[@CobaltLobster]

@@Majin10 At least I won't have to wonder which child to eat first.

[@HH-el8vp]

I love this quote.

[@TakeHit0]

The market can stay retarded much longer than you can stay solvent. Ftfy

[@tribalypredisposed]

As an analyst pointed out, Rivian is now valued at 2.5 times what Tesla is valued at for forward looking revenue, without being the clear market leader, having a huge lead in charging networks, having their own battery cells on the way, having a proven record of increasing production 50% or more every year, being the leader in autonomous with their own chips and supercomputer, etc. In a market where Fisker had his "company" of enormous lies and himself, his wife, and his computer valued at $3 billion I guess nothing should shock me, but $110 billion for a company that is clearly entering the market too late and will, if they are lucky, only just reach profitability when the market reaches or closes in on maturity, and will most likely steadily lose market share after that, best case scenario, is insane. The product looks nice, but the Cybertruck smack down is only a year away and if Rivian stock is still at an absurd valuation by then, looks like an amazing opportunity to short it when orders slow Q4 2022 or Q1 2023 for Rivian and the grim reality of to late with too little becomes apparent.

[@janegoodall1837]

Only thing you got wrong was when you said institutional investors bought Rivian because they thought the stock was undervalued. Wrong, they bought because they thought it might go up.

[@amelio5720]

That's why they thought it's undervalued...

[@rfidtech9286]

So true

[@RoIIingStoned]

@@amelio5720 No. It's a slight difference. She's saying it's not undervalued but they bought it because they thought hype would drive its price up

[@Uncle_Troy]

We're seeing a lot of fairy dust and hopium in the markets. I can't wait to buy long-term puts on this stock.

[@CHMichael]

Look what lucid did - going to look similar.

[@SebtorDude]

Not easy at all. IV is going to be crazy high. You will be bleeding theta left and right.

[@michaelhutchings8599]

I really can’t wait for it ALL to collapse (give it two years) so I buy up the moon bro’s assets lmao

[@azeton128]

What makes me really bearish is that they planned for on electric off road truck. Are there charging stations in the desert? In the jungle or on a remote mountain? Sure Amazon's investment is bullish, but the planning in this company seems more than off

[@thadlm2698]

@@CHMichael What did Lucid do beyond delivering 20 plus EVs or so?

[@Mike-xj2xv]

I'm not sure wtf is going on but this new finance they teaching nowadays along with wanting to live in a video game is astounding

[@rugbeaters1]

They have a huge Chance of being the next Tesla that went bankrupt

[@MrYoshio14]

Its almost as if it wasnt real....

[@mukamuka0]

People forgot how hard that is to succeed in Auto business. High upfront cost, a lot of safety regulation and thousand of suppliers. Rivian has yet to prove themself and the great test that I'll waiting to see is how Rivian will be able to navigate FUD and came out alive because that time will come...either when they can't make a profit for too long or when medias fuel by oil industry attacking them.

[@yolo_burrito]

Papa Bezos won’t let that happen.

[@Russellww4]

@@mukamuka0 lucid will be way better. Let rivian pump and dump its nowhwere near the worth it’s at right now not even remotely close. There trucks are ugly af and plane hahah but lucid on the other hand superior tech by far. Battery tech and drive train tech is insane. Plus lucid air got car of the year from motor trend lets go

[@BChandl13]

This dude's entire pitch is "They've existed for 10 years, they're not Tesla!!!". Tesla was founded in 2003, and delivered about 15k vehicles in 2013, a mark easily surpassable by Rivian in 2022.

[@UhOhUmm]

But even Tesla is extremely overvalued. At current profits Tesla would take hundreds of years for investors to start seeing returns.

[@BChandl13]

@@UhOhUmm 100%. Tesla is something like 400x P/E. EVs are all a bubble and Tesla is the biggest bubble of all of them. But that has little to do with the fact that Rivian not turning out 500k vehicles is OK in 2021 because it took Tesla nearly 20 years to turn out that many and they had more access to capital.

[@yinhuili]

Tesla had been through a lot of hardships throughout the year. They accomplished several things, like 5 stars safety rating, before the noise got bigger. I believe Rivian is a great car, but like you said, they still need to prove themselves in the market to be worth the price.

[@E17-v1o]

Tesla is worth about 50 per share.

[@catprog]

​@@E17-v1o I would argue with future growth $100 would be a fair price. 16P/E is quite low.

[@E17-v1o]

@@catprog Most car companies are trading in the 6-7 P/E range.

[@catprog]

@@E17-v1o Either way we both are closer in our estimates then either of us are to the actual price.

[@glennalexon1530]

I doubt very much that Amazon "signed a contract" with Rivian to purchase an untested future fantasy van. This is "greenwashing", a practice that allows a company to make socially-responsible claims without actually spending any money. It's likely that driving up the value of their investment was the other key goal.

[@Redoption19]

Great idea . Put batteries at the bottom. Last I checked . Sidewalks, rocks . Even bumps will damage power supply. Wealthy

[@MrXbloodline]

Yeah that's where my gas car drive line and oil pan and my gas tank full of highly flammable belong not your batteries

[@catprog]

Better then putting heavy object up higher with a higher center of gravity. Plus a common base means one design that they can build on.

[@life_of_riley88]

They have like 200+ open job positions in Silicone Valley here. Almost all of them are senior management, senior engineer, staff-senior program manager etc. . .I have *NO* idea how they are going to fill these roles with qualified candidates. Finding people in the Valley for engineering is really brutal at the moment.

[@davidaleman7708]

Why is it brutal?

[@life_of_riley88]

@@davidaleman7708 There's tons of Job openings, and as much as it's a big market, it's a small market. In hardware, the same people rotate from company to company, so it's a recruiting battle, and eventually the large companies with the biggest budgets end up snapping up all the best talent. So startups have to sort the seeds from the chaffe, the fly shit from the pepper and that makes for a very strained job market that's dependent on imported talent.

[@smferreiro2610]

With R1T they are not only "niche" to rich people, but a "niche within a niche" of rich people with "peculiar" ideas of aesthetic.

[@gerrycrisostomo6571]

What is the reason for those hypes? Are the stock analysts trying to use Tesla's success to pump up Rivian? What if Rivian continue to fail to meet it's delivery dates and got destroyed by Tesla in the process? Do Rivian has it's own battery production plants or facilities like Tesla that will enable it to produce large number of vehicles? Take note here that enough battery supply is the key factor in the success of EV production and if Rivian does not have it and will simply rely on third party suppliers, then they are just going to follow most legacy automakers' battery supply problems when they tried to produce their own EVs. I think it's way too risky to invest in Rivian for now with it's bloated stock price.

[@sayfami3927]

Pump too much cheap money and dump near earnings, make believe stock no fundamentals whatsoever

[@WodiesDad]

wasn't so bloated last thurs morning..

[@shimes424]

At least they didn't promise full self driving launch by end of 2019 "Buying any other car is financially insane"

[@gerrycrisostomo6571]

@@shimes424 The full self driving is only delayed because of the pandemic but it will eventually go into full version. The latest beta version is already awesome.

[@shanep.7184]

The truck is extremely well designed. You can watch MKBHD’s video for more info. Whether they can actually make them is another story entirely.

[@keanuvernon6177]

An actual engineer as a CEO would be epic

[@misters6749]

Doesn’t Bezos have an electrical engineering degree?

[@RoIIingStoned]

CEOs need to learn how to lead a company and make the right decisions. Being an engineer while at the same time, the CEO, means almost nothing. They can hire the best engineers

[@Spocker93]

In theory yes, but in reality non-engineers aren't generally capable of hiring competent engineers. There's no shortage of companies that were/are destroyed by MBA's and other "business oriented" leadership, just look at Boeing as an example. The usual flow of such successful companies is that they are founded and built by engineers producing good products. Once the company is established, mediocre middle managers come to power and previously successful companies become rife with politics, short term planning and internal conflicts.

[@TheCredibleHulk]

I didn’t know Steve O was in the electric vehicle manufacturing market. If his cars are as indestructible as Steve O himself, then perhaps a 100B valuation is not that crazy.

[@BenDOlson]

I'm currently short RIVN from the top. Target price of $40.

[@lightbulb551]

I think its gonna be sorta like a Apple vs Android battle. Tesla is apple and has majority of the market but also Rivian or Andriod is good competitor and offers different tech and quality.

[@machenka]

I really don’t get this sudden explosion in car manufacturers. The only reason Tesla managed to get a foothold was that the established manufacturers did not see enough business potential to spend the R&D necessary to produce electric vehicles early on. This has changed so from now on we will see MASSIVE car manufacturers with production lines hundreds of times larger than Tesla’s pumping out electric vehicles at a much lower cost. I’m surprised if even Tesla will manage to survive that competition for 5-10 years, so how these upcoming companies expect to be able to turn a profit in such a highly competitive and extremely capital intensive industry is beyond me. In the end, the Japanese and German automakers probably stand as the victors as the tradition is in that industry.

[@life_of_riley88]

Mitsubishi currently produces the most fuel efficient, non hybrid car on the road in the US. It retails for as little as $10,999 brand new. Over 40mpg, without batteries. Just wait till the Japanese build smaller, lightweight ev's for the US market. They will crush these offerings from Tesla, GM, Rivian etc.

[@jlcii]

So much talk, yet Toyota, the top Japanese manufacturer, doesn't even believe in producing electric cars, and has yet to bring anything to production it is a lethargic, underpowered, likely expensive crossover. And when it comes to Europe, they're not faring much better. They can't even produce an electric car that cost under $40,000 that gets anywhere approaching 300 miles of range. Meanwhile Tesla is about ready to drop their first $25,000, entry-level electric car that's supposed to have no less than 250 miles of range, while undercutting the nearest competitor by a substantial amount in base price. Tesla may not be as long time established, but they are ever-growing in the highly demanding electric vehicle market, and they are at the Forefront when it comes to most people looking for an electric vehicle. Until we see that strong of competition coming from other automakers, I wouldn't be so quick to count Tesla out.

[@life_of_riley88]

@@jlcii Electric vehicles are NOT the future. Big firms like Toyota know this. They know that internal combustion and hybrid vehicles are more efficient, better for the environment and will always be available for use with the current infrastructure in key markets, such as the US. Do some research, electric cars are not what we need right now, they are worse than gasoline vehicles and are far far from "green".

[@machenka]

@@life_of_riley88 I agree to some degree. The internal combustion engine is so highly optimized that it’s gonna take years before EV’s can compete if you compare the climate impact from the creation of all components for the car until the car is scrapped. However, most western countries confuse climate impact and local environment impact with each other. Just because the local pollution in large western cities will decrease that does not mean we’re better off in the grand scheme of things. That said the politicians probably don’t care as they want to be able to say that their country has decreased the climate impact with the promised amount, not to mention that it’s just been moved to the other side of the globe. In the EU there are laws in place that will secure the success of EV’s and so they have doomed the currently superior technology climate-wise. The fact that we have to subsidize EV’s and ban combustion engine cars for EV’s to be viable is telling. There’s a theoretical max to the effectiveness of all energy ‘containers’ and we are about to hit that in regards to battery technology. In this regard, fossil fuel is, unfortunately, the superior product, as well as its energy density, are many times that of the most optimized battery. I’m all for saving the climate but to me, EVs ain’t nothing but a way for us consumers to feel good that we’re doing our part in saving it. We would help the climate much more by eating less meat or traveling less by air but in the end, we’re only really willing to make changes that do not impact our way of living, and we defend that by saying that we’ve done our part by buying an EV. Crazy!

[@life_of_riley88]

@@machenka You summed it up perfectly.

[@AmorosoGombe]

I love your sober analysis. Rivian is crazy over valued.

[@davidjma7226]

EV reminds me of the dot-com bubble. All of those 'build it and they will come claims'!! Sound familiar? Along with scale up issues? Pffft!

[@millardbrown9121]

Ford F-150 Lightning is going to be the best EV Truck in the world in my opinion.

[@davidallen8611]

There is a Rivian truck driving in my town. It actually looks pretty cool.

[@arcaneisboring7675]

You know you're on top of the food chain when you become a standard of success by which everyone else is measured. Tesla is the next tesla, the rest want's to be tesla.

[@3EBstudio]

Yep and it took Tesla 10+ to Tesla today lol this might be the easiest money on the short side in 9months

[@loremeuc81]

Guys you will get destroyed, Tesla is a great company but its valuation already discounts 15 years of 50% annualized growth

[@reaperzeero]

These EV startups seem to keep making the same mistake, they want to expand too fast, they should just concentrate on having an actual steady production quota and not putting every penny into making expensive mega-factories to build millions of cars a year, that always seem to cost 200% more than they were budgeted and never get completed. Start small and build up is the right way to do it.

[@cheeseisgross6366]

When valuations don't support consistent profits but instead support "high growth", it makes perfect sense for these VC-backed start ups to go this route.

[@BChandl13]

If they're all making the same "mistake" then it's one of two things.... It's either not a mistake, or you know better and are more knowledgable than all the people founding and leading these EV startups. My money is on the former.

[@Miquiztli_tochtli]

The rivian truck is honestly pretty sick tho. If i had the money i would buy one of those over a Toyota Tacoma.

[@Miquiztli_tochtli]

I also find them much more intriguing than the Tesla cyber truck. It looks a little too odd for me. For anyone who wants to own an electric truck, i think rivian will quite the consideration for people.

[@averagedave1953]

The next tesla is tesla

[@germaninvasion121]

Exactly. These fools will fail miserably!

[@gordonjohnson2497]

Absolutely. 100% chance of Tesla breaking 3k within 2 years. 90% of it breaking 10,000 by 2030.

[@lombardo141]

@@gordonjohnson2497 it will have another stock split before 10,000 that’s for sure

[@gordonjohnson2497]

@@lombardo141 Yes it will, Maybe 2

[@MADMAX7330]

^This guy gets it

[@definitiveenergy1]

Tesla is a technology and software company not just an EV company. Quite a stretch to catapult Rivian into the stratosphere of the highest valued car company in the world 😂

[@billbutler6551]

I prefer to own a car from a company whose CEO has a PhD in engineering from MIT as opposed to a CEO who spends a good fraction of his time speculating in Bitcoin or trying to manipulate stock prices. That's why I've ordered a Rivian R1S.

[@Beavereaver]

Elon musk is a freaking genius and the proof is in the pudding.

[@reynaldodizon6563]

Pick up are only popular here in US especially the heavy and medium in weight. I doubted that they can sell Rivian truck in China and Europe.

[@jlcii]

Okay, I keep seeing people talk about the limited amount of deliveries that rivian has been making on their just launched vehicles. But do people forget that Tesla also started that way? Tesla wasn't always cranking out 20,000 model 3's a month; they also started off with small production numbers and grew over time. Do people really expect for rivian to have 5,000 Vehicles a month ready to go when they've just launched into production?? Not to mention, they are still wanting in the midst of a pandemic that has slowed production to a complete halt in some cases with almost every other automaker.

[@DoomsdayR3sistance]

Tesla took a long time, but not that long. Tesla was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. The Tesla Roadster hit the roads in 2008 and had 1,000th roadster completed in Jan of 2010. Rivian was founded in 2009, even by Tesla standards, it's very slow. Also Tesla basically can only get to 20K+ a month due to all the factories that the U.S. government basically handed to Tesla in the first place... so unless they get that type of governmental support, I don't see Rivian getting there any time in near future. Additionally one must consider if Tesla itself is over-valued, which it definitely is, Rivian's "value" is definitely based off of Tesla's over-inflated value. Once the Tesla bubble pops, Rivian's value will pop with it.

[@pappamike6231]

The P&L ledger tells the entire story.

[@steveblomefield9513]

RJS has to ramp up production. Elon said it is incredibly difficult to build the machine that makes the machine. It is my guess that they will struggle at first. The share price will fall. Eventually, they will sort out "production hell". The share price will then rocket.

[@ristekostadinov2820]

The thing with Rivian is they don't offer anything new on the table that will justify their valuation, Ford is already dominating the pickup truck industry and GM/PSA will most likely build electric pickup truck in order to continue their market share and people who love Tesla will most likely buy the Cybertruck. Outside of US pickup trucks are not that big. That's why i don't bother Rivian and Lucid (Mercedes/Porsche already have an EV and they trade at much lower valuation).

[@jimmcgone4570]

Strange Days not withstanding... the end product is beautiful. In between, with a small bias? How about some well needed... good things happen to good people. G'luck Meg. RJ.

[@frankcoffey]

These type of stocks are more collectibles than traditional investments. With the new found power if retail investors that’s just a hard reality Wall Street will need to get their head around. It’s no longer just professional investors trying to out maneuver each other. There are new players now who don’t even know the rules and are not willing to learn.

[@Patrick-bu5vy]

In other words....a sh*t load of dumb money, most of it already in Tesla.

[@life_of_riley88]

What you described is exactly the market conditions that existed in 1928, 1984, and 1999. 🙄

[@terrylutke]

Investors seem to believe that global legacy car builders are going to lay down and simply hand over important automotive market segments to these up-starts, it's a pipe dream. More likely legacy's are gauging consumer/EV acceptance levels and technology maturity. Today EV's are sitting at +-2% market penetration, in no small part due to consumer tax incentives. Political carrots and sticks will no doubt pressure EV growth, but winner/loser shake outs haven't even begun. Betting against GM/Ford/Honda/Toyota or Korea in favor of infinity P/E's seems beyond risky.

[@LoveClassicMusic0205]

I know the 4th guy in this picture at 1:40. He and his family went to my church in Michigan for a while. He eventually got transferred to Rivian's California location.

[@magnuscarlsson1503]

Cool story, bro. Church? "What year is it?"

[@lilbroomstick7914]

why arent put options available? RIVN put options?

[@NightRidah777]

Usally takes a week or two after IPO for options to be available

[@phoenix5054]

Don't try to bet against cult stocks.

[@williamlloyd3769]

Can Rivian scale to mass market size? If they are focusing on just adventures market segment will they beat out MBZ, Porsche, BMW ability to meet serve this segment? Will Amazon go with Rivian for delivery vans in the long term?

[@TheSuavest]

It’s not even about beating other competitors… really the market just is not there currently. I would compare Rivian to the old Fisker Karma, FK was very green (bio-sustainable materials in model) and a luxury EV (So similarly VERY niche to Riv) so the MSRP was steep… within 15 years FK went bankrupt, so I don’t see how Riv will be any different

[@scifitoilet]

still very scary to short an EV stock tho even if it is overpriced

[@SebtorDude]

That's what I hate about it. Market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

[@jacob_90s]

Investors: We need more regulations! Also Investors: BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY!

[@trinsit]

There's a LOT of people strapped into a roller coaster that is very high behind a company that will never understand how to manufacture the way Tesla has. Not before period get bored and then pissed, waiting for it to turn a profit that makes sense for that validation. Yes, by Tuesday.

[@harmhoeks5996]

"during bubble, Internet was the future, and we all know how that turned out" Me watching a video on a KZbin daily.

[@asey20]

In the early 2000s, internet was still in its infancy and there was a lot of speculation of how successful it would become. A lot of tech stocks disappeared after the crash, so while EVs may be the future a decade or so down the line you wouldn't want to be holding stocks of a company that may not even exist in 10 years.

[@1P4L]

Reading these comments, I really do feel the love for Rivian among the Tesla community 😂

[@AudiTTQuattro2003]

...scared this over priced stock makes Tesla's over priced stock look ridiculous too.

[@zaceryhammond1144]

@@AudiTTQuattro2003 you only just noticed ?! Tesla’s are overpriced crap look at the quality of the cars 🥴🥴 $20 k car for 60 hahaha 🤣

[@akin242002]

I don't see them beating Tesla for consumer cars or trucks. Ford has the truck market down, even the EV trucks. The only saving grace for Rivian is the enterprise Amazon trucks 🚚. Amazon deliveries aren't going away anytime soon with 80% of the USA house owners use Amazon delivery services.

[@infiltr80r]

Tesla will also fall as they are only selling on hype. The interior quality is garbage and they're charging luxury car prices. Already the German electrics are far better value.

[@akin242002]

@@infiltr80r Tesla cars aren't going away. The demand is insane. They are backed up with late orders. They have the ideal business situation of only needing to worry about supply side issues. No advertising needed. This is unheard of. 99% of major organizations spend millions if not billions on advertising. I agree that the interior design is nicer on German cars like the Audi E-Tron.

[@infiltr80r]

@@akin242002 All car manufacturers are backed up with late orders. It's about the chip shortage, not about Tesla cars being so great. Try to order any of the more luxurious German vehicles and see what response you get.

[@akin242002]

@@infiltr80r It's been that way before 2020 for Tesla. The chip shortage was another Tuesday for Tesla.

[@infiltr80r]

@@akin242002 Before it was the uniqueness factor or rather good marketing. Now the innovation is not there anymore. Where I am currently in Europe, there's a bunch of Teslas for sale, many nearly brand new.

[@tachat1417]

Looks more like next Nikola than next Tesla to me. 110 billions of dollars is an absurd amount of money for an old ’start up’ company , especially when nowadays every car producing company is shifting to become an electric. This world is being taken over and run by mad people. Disaster is inevitable.

[@InsidiousDr9]

You actually believe the Tesla 'CyberTruck' will be delivered next year? The hands-on reviews of Rivian truck so far have been very positive.

[@Waterman42069]

Hope everyone is ready for puts at open tomorrow, this is going to be a quick ride back down to 70.

[@FreshlySnipes]

I saw 5 Rivian trucks in OC last weekend. Never see one before and no, they weren’t the same truck 5x

[@imu6085]

Just by looking at the eyes (headlights) of the car..i cud say you cant trust it

[@patmat.]

😂 lol I feel rhe same, weel said

[@Ze1kor2]

DHL Deutsche Post's Streetscooters, which have been running in their fleet for like 10 years: Are we a joke to you? Sion motors working on easily maintainable evs for low prices. Framo is already manufacturing electrical cargo trucks. Meanwhile: cybertruck, electric pickups, suvs, plug-in hybrid suvs. Hey, the industry is moving, but do we really need these vehicles? 😂

[@BradKwfc]

I don't even own a truck but if I had the money I'd definitely buy a Rivian. Watch some of the videos on it, awesome truck and they literally thought of just about everything.

[@kevindudson2344]

Damn dude that is crazy overvalued. I just own some Lucid motors.

[@davidbeattie4294]

Rivian is a huge longshot. They are riding investor over enthusiasm on a virtually non-existent product line with no significant product or cost advantages. They have bugger all manufacturing experience, no support and distribution infrastructure, and are last in line to purchase batteries from someone else. There is lots of room in the market for new EV players but Tesla is going to be tremendously hard to compete with no matter how badly Jeff Bozos wishes they could.

[@mrpmj00]

Ford can help Rivian build and service (e.g., brakes, etc.) Amazon can help Rivian with logistics, sales, and artificial intelligence (e.g., Alexa is included).

[@IvanPlayStation4LiFe]

😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@zSkeezy]

We are absolutely in an EV bubble. Obviously electric vehicles are the future, but I’m not putting any money in there until they all inevitably dump big time.

[@stachowi]

2021: Biggest Bubble in History. When this one pops, we're going back to sticks and fire.

[@HockeyVictory66]

The next crash will murder some pension and 401(k) funds along the way. That will hurt the economy immensely.

[@DopeItzTheeOne]

Ain’t no telling where this one goes, their earnings date is gonna be madness.

[@blurredsquid]

I’m sure they can if….. they start accepting a dog themed crypto as payment… their CEO books the next flight to space carrying the dog along… and then goes on a CNBC virtual interview with no pants on…

[@rickeycompton5518]

I saw the truck in LeRoy Illinois this past thursday 11/8/22

[@TiberianFiend]

Those Amazon delivery vans are owned and operated by private contractors, just like the trucks pulling Amazon trailers or the planes flown by Amazon Air.

[@VenturiLife]

Insane valuation. Just Amazon's touch made it happen.

[@medea27]

While all of these share prices are overblown & have no ties to the actual business behind them any more, I think it's great that there's legit competition entering the electric car market. It's about time that there's a company that's actually got a production line going & delivered cars _before_ their IPO, instead of 'pushers' after a dodgy SPAC. I just hope Rivian take Tesla's approach to ignore the irrelevant markets noise & focus on being a car company first, and managing the business as manufacturer & not a financial instrument like all the other disasters in this space..... Nikola, I'm looking at you!

[@PapiBocaChula]

at that price they should lose more 70% of their market value over the next few quarters as they continue to miss on esitamates. like delivering 850 more trucks by years end

[@beenthere9770]

You didn’t really lay out the basics such as their battery supply line, battery production capacity, manufacturing capacity and projected capacity, key talent etc….

[@davidrobinson2535]

How many Amazon vans can be charge at the distribution facility? Will need a big base load draw to recharge Maybe the same as a production plant with machines ?

[@callmeosho7792]

You got the part about Amazon wrong, Amazon has multiple businesses not just e commerce (whole foods, home security etc.)

[@jonny5777]

I’m usually quick to call out overvalued companies who overpromise and under deliver but I’m behind Rivian, I think they have real potential and I like their CEO unlike Musk who’s like a bad Bond villain or cult leader at this point. I’m certainly not drinking his kool-aid

[@PugzofSteel]

I was thinking Rivian was a good stock to buy Tuesday. They went public Wednesday and here we are. I just wish I knew how to buy stock and what kind of stocks.

[@ziyaonbashi5864]

If rivian is a bubble, Tesla is a super bubble

[@mt2nv1]

How so? Tesla was producing 1000 cars per week when they hit $110B and had dozens of factories, charging infrastructure, and a diversified energy business. Rivian has one factory and builds 2 cars per day.

[@arc187]

It's like all these institutional investors lost their minds and forgot the Detroit 3, Honda, Hyundai, and Toyota are not making EV. Tesla being worth more than all 6 combined is just stupid!

[@ziyaonbashi5864]

@@arc187 totally agree

[@ziyaonbashi5864]

@@mt2nv1 come on, you gotta be kidding me. You are comparing Tesla and rivian in terms of production numbers. Why don’t you compare Tesla and Toyota on the same metric....Tesla producing a few hundred thousand vehicles per year and Toyota producing more than 10 million, yet Tesla market cap is more than 10 times Toyota....it’s a joke

[@mt2nv1]

@@ziyaonbashi5864 wait. Is Tesla only an automaker? Also, the market is all about speculation. Future potential outweighs current performance.

[@BillyLapTop]

GM has a better shot at surviving than Rivian.

[@lancetruong4957]

Don't be so sure.

[@yiminyu7131]

they could always just outsource some production to foxconn, tesla didnt have that option but if their aim is market share and not profitability that could help meet their end of decade goals. im still skeptical tho

[@Bbfishman]

the whole market is funky now. it doesnt seem to matter what the value of a company is, just that its being talked about. kind of scary but i guess theres an angle to capitalize on somewhere in there

[@johnl.7754]

Won’t be surprised if Amazon would make more money from its Rivian stock then what they will pay for their Vans.

[@NoRegrets001]

Some points missed, Tesla is more than just a vehicle manufacturer and also building a Semi. I just can't see Rivian ever seeing a $1T evaluation.

[@jeffw8218]

It was reported this week that Rivian is losing approximately $40,000 on EVERY truck they sell, and they have no path to profitability. The stock is up today, most likely a temporary short-squeeze.

[@DanBurgaud]

6:50 Planned production of 150,000 cars per year, but is currently producing 156.... gonna be a riot if they produce only 1K next year

[@gouravkohli4573]

Bezos is now trying to compete with Musk Now

[@chrsmcfrln]

The conventional automotive industry is so unprofitable anyway, that valuation comparisons with EV companies is meaningless. Tesla’s most profitable business is selling carbon offsets to the petrol car makers and racking up battery technology IP. Making cars is a side hustle. The other terrible part of the business is the reseller dealership model which further erodes margin, but if Rivien hits the ground running with guaranteed orders from the worlds biggest online shopping business, they escape much of the high cost of retail sales.

[@adamrak7560]

Carbon credits is no longer the most profitable business of Tesla as of Q2 2021. (It was before then though) From Tesla 2021 Q2 report: Income from carbon tax credits: 354 million USD Net GAAP income: 1142 million USD From Tesla 2021 Q3 report: Income from carbon tax credits: 279 million USD Net GAAP income: 1618 million USD According to these numbers Tesla is very comfortably profitable without any carbon tax credits at all.

[@ps3301]

Tons of speculators and gamblers in the market. No one thinks they will be the last sellers of rivian shares.