Self-Driving Cars Are a Dangerous Pipe Dream

While Elon Musk confidently predicted Tesla robotaxis in 2019, it's Waymo and GM's Cruise that took the leap in 2023. But was it too soon? This video examines the highs and lows, from major technological breakthroughs to the troubling events on the streets of San Francisco, highlighting the potential dangers of robotaxis. Join us as we unpack the complex challenges facing self-driving cars and question the feasibility of achieving full autonomy on our roads.
#Wallstreetmillennial #tesla #waymo #cruise #robotaxi #selfdriving
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[@janakakumara3836]

Made a very good point about how Human drivers "read" other drivers. Their emotions, their level of competence and even their intentions their driving accordingly. This is not very important on the highway, but is very important on city streets, where pedestrians, animals, cyclists share a common space.

[@LuisGuiEscamilla]

Right. And in no time the AI will learn how to read other drivers. The more selfdrivers cars in the road the more data of real life situations they will collect. We are going through the car revolution Ford brought to the world in the early 1900s. Look how far we have come. We just need time. The youtuber also said that driving is complex and when there is erratic behavior more accidents will happen. That is true! But the erratic behavior is from the humans. If all cars were self-driving and they could talk to each other digitally, which they soon will, the road would be a safer place for all.

[@cybertrk]

A camera can do the same

[@janakakumara3836]

@@LuisGuiEscamilla Possibly, but as far as I know, there is no research being done to train a neural network to "read" other humans and predict their behaviour. This is general situational awareness. For example a humans driver will get alert when they hear a siren or shouting or screams and scan for the source to act accordingly. All that is missing in current AI, which is entirely just based on object recognition from cameras and distance measurements from LIDAR. Even if all the cars are automated, there are still pedestrians, children, pets, homeless people acting eratically.

[@janakakumara3836]

@@cybertrk From the self driving POV videos I've seen the HD cameras are not able to read the emotions of a person at any distance. This will require an extremely high resolution camera and processing the faces of dozens of people at a time is gonna require likely more hardware than currently on cars these days. And the current sensor suite and LIDARs on WAYMO cars are already around 150000 dollars. So you are probably looking at x2 dollars worth of computing hardware and sensors to do all of this.

[@j4genius961]

@@LuisGuiEscamilla I don't know if that will happen in "no time" if ever at all... Situational awareness is INCREDIBLY difficult to reproduce with AI, the amount of complex shapes/signs/symbols to analyze all at once is insane ( the human brain is seriously underrated ) and current hardware is nowhere near good enough to process that.

[@ArtOfLife.]

Remember Elon promising the $25,000 Tesla that you can put into the robotaxi fleet and it earns $30,000 a year for you?

[@tarekyared4404]

Remember when Musk promised 1+ million robotaxis "for sure" (his words) by 2019?

[@Chris-ci8vs]

Haha another con

[@kriegfaust]

Remember his high speed hyperloop.

[@SamuelMM_Mitosis]

@@tarekyared4404remember how multiple AI experts agreed with him? Predicting the path for technology, especially AI, is very challenging. Tesla is still the most innovative car company today. What are you doing to push us forward?

[@rolmaxify]

@@SamuelMM_Mitosis Then maybe Elon shouldn‘t resort to those statements? How about stopping to promise things will happen and instead take a more realistic approach in terms of timelines? As you said, it’s very hard to predict when and what will happen with AI. But that was a well known fact BEFORE he put out all these ridiculous timelines. He literally promised customers a product almost a decade ago for which people paid tons of money, expecting what he promised. All these people have nowadays is a glorified cruise control lol. And apart from that, Elon promised numerous other things within a short time that have nothing to do with AI. And those are still by numerous years late… Or actually released but far off what was originally promised

[@thomasnelson5010]

I've been saying this for years. I am a heavy haul truck driver. My friends tell me all the time: "Truck drivers and diesel trucks will be replaced by autonomous electric vehicles". I get called crazy for saying "it will not happen in our lifetime".

[@wallstreetmillennial]

People get way too hyped up about "revolutionary" new technologies, they assume silicon valley can solve all the world's problems.

[@jimmahr.4665]

I agree. Trucks will never be lithium battery powered, not a chance. My truck burns 100 to 130 gal of diesel in a full day (up to 112,000 lbs gross rated and I run 90,000+ lbs constantly). I would probably need a 100,000 lbs battery to last it a day. Then you have a lot of 100 of these trucks needing recharging. I would bet on nuclear powered truck before battery or hydrogen for that matter.

[@sethaldrich6902]

@@jimmahr.4665 especially now that fusion is possible, nuclear is the way to go

[@danielstapler4315]

But these trucks already exist.@@jimmahr.4665

[@user-zl3rb4rg1n]

​@@sethaldrich6902i dont think you understand fusion reactors. They will never fit in a car engine.

[@toric6005]

I have a family member who works developing self driving cars and they told me, if you’re around a self driving cars don’t dress like a traffic cone🤣

[@rickys6770]

Every car works great when it is new. But after a few years when it is old and rusty the sensors and other electronics begin to fail. I'm guessing the complex self-driving system will be extremely expensive to diagnose and fix.

[@abhishekgarg5286]

Good point. The self-driving cars that are being tested have their sensors being checked daily probably by waymo teams or whoever and they still fail sometimes. If regular customers get these cars & these cars get old & have some wear & tear, we would see even more failures of these self-driving cars.

[@mikestanmore2614]

As an ex pilot, I can tell you that an autopilot is orders of magnitude less complex than FSD. They're barely even comparable. I don't believe FSD will be solved this decade, if ever.

[@DumbledoreMcCracken]

it will be solved as soon as never arrives

[@sergeybrin1963]

Anyone against self-driving because it might not be great at the beginning would have probably been part of the same people that did not want flying to become a thing for the same reasons.

[@DumbledoreMcCracken]

@@sergeybrin1963 I am against self driving because it is impossible, and is only meant to take money out of the pockets of the technologically illiterate Elon is the master of promising the undeliverable. Because he is able to deliver the low hanging fruit, does not imply that the hard things can or will happen. Want self driving, hire a chauffeur, or take a bus or train. Those are the solutions.

[@mikestanmore2614]

@@sergeybrin1963 Scepticism is not opposition.

[@kcgunesq]

It will eventually happen, if only because at some point, it will be all that's allowed. The problem now is trying to make computers understand people. But with a few decades of improvements in processors and AI, at some point it will happen. But I agree it isn't this decade and suspect it won't be in the next decade either.

[@ryanrector3222]

Been driving lyft for a while now. Even when they get the tech right it’ll be a nightmare. There will be trash, puke, drugs, sex, all in the cars and tons of other problems due to human interference and not even technology. Good luck with that.

[@tribalypredisposed]

There will be one robo taxi company: Tesla. There will be cameras inside the car pointed at you. If you do not want to be banned from using the one robo taxi company that exists, you will behave.

[@dustinnabil798]

​@@tribalypredisposedWhat makes you think Tesla won't have some competitors within the next decade?

[@tribalypredisposed]

@@dustinnabil798 well, competitors will need to be able to make and sell millions of relatively low cost EVs that are very durable and energy efficient, and then they will need to solve full self driving, partially by getting ten billion miles of driving data or so (Musk's estimate), and then they would need to provide some reason for Tesla robo taxi customers to switch, and getting all of that in place would cost many of billions of dollars, and right now no company is even trying to have the fleet and the software they would need for real mass scale robo taxis except for Tesla. It is only possible for Tesla to have a competitor in robo taxis if the government decides it has a monopoly, because Tesla will, and breaks the company up.

[@AndriasTravels]

Musk fanboys ignore reality.@@dustinnabil798

[@Chris-ci8vs]

Musk is a dickhead conman and it wouldn't be hard for other companies to compete@@tribalypredisposed

[@franciscodanconia4324]

There have been many situations in my 33 year driving experience where intuition and split second value judgements have been necessary. I once avoided a head on high way collision because I saw a car speeding and weaving increasing erratically on the other side of a divided highway with a grassy median. I could see there was a high chance of the driver losing control. Something in the back of my brain said “slow down”, so I did and changed lanes to the far right. The other driver did lose control and then spun across the median into opposing traffic right about where my car would have been. How do you program an AI with that intuition? One other time I was driving on a highway in traffic doing 70. In front of me was what looked like a piece of metal A/C ducting that i only saw after a pickup had passed over it (not hitting it because it was lifted). Both lanes to my left and right were occupied so changing lanes wasn’t an option, and I was being tailgated. My only good option was to run the thing over doing 70, because it was the smallest thing to hit. I figured my car would suffer some damage but it was manageable for me to keep the car safely on the road. It did tear up my bumper but it didn’t lose any critical systems. But what choice would a driverless car make in that situation? How does it choose the least worst option when there are no “good” options available?

[@qx4n9e1xp]

Enter 👱🏻‍♀️ driver, and your logic goes right out the window!

[@user-xj8wy4uu1q]

Split second judgements are easier with computers

[@aitoluxd]

​@@user-xj8wy4uu1q proof?

[@privat6558]

You perfectly summarised the whole situation and did not fall victim to the elaborate "hype" scheme of self driving.

[@arnoldvosloo220]

I wouldn't say "perfectly" given he says it will never happen, and it has already happened. lol

[@realpainediaz7473]

@@arnoldvosloo220 When self-driving cars can drive in the heavy-snow conditions of a Detroit winter holler at me!

[@arnoldvosloo220]

@@realpainediaz7473 Maybe they'll struggle with snowy roads for some time, I don't know. I'm just saying the tech is already in use today and it's improving over time. Therefore to say it's "never gonna happen" doesn't make much sense.

[@arnoldvosloo220]

​@@weird-guy Even saying it'll take centuries is pretty crazy. Things like bugs in google maps don't take centuries to fix. A couple decades ago and the iphone hadn't even been created yet. Flash forward less than 20 years and our basic smartphones make some of the most expensive computers from back then look like glorified calculators. To say FSD will take centuries to catch on when it's already in use today in the States is assuming such a poor rate of improvement that is inconsistent with history.

[@realpainediaz7473]

@@weird-guy"Never is wrong" - no it is not

[@warrengardner]

I have a PhD in Computer Vision. I was baffled when they started rolling these things out. I'm not sure it'll never happen, but it probably shouldn't happen right now.

[@tektronix475]

hi. wich is the best image anomaly detection model right now?

[@abdjahdoiahdoai]

i don't have a PhD, but I bet human eyes are still SOTA@@tektronix475

[@W1ldTangent]

@@weird-guy now THAT I can confidently say will never happen in our or or children's lifetime. I've been there, I've been in that traffic, it follow no laws but the laws of physics.

[@dubbelosexy]

Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord William Thomson Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, president of the British Royal Society, 1895 When I comes to advancements in science and engineering, never say never. But I do believe the technology isn't there yet.

[@the0ne809]

I like all the CGI demos these companies produce. Boring company has demos with Tesla cars getting into tunnels using a platform from above the ground. ZERO chance of happening in the next 100 years at minimum but somehow they were pretending that was coming in the next few years. Their tunnels in Vegas sucks. lol

[@ferrariscuderia4290]

If car manufacturers aren't capable of manufacturing fully functioning and reliable voice-activated command systems, how the hell do they imagine FSDs to work?

[@franciscodanconia4324]

Most of them can’t even design infotainment Uis. Like why the hell do my HVAC controls have to be in a menu I’ve got to scroll through while driving as opposed to a switch or knob I can operate by touch? I drive a 20 year old car. If I set my hand on the shifter I can operate every feature of my radio and my HVAC by touch with my eyes on the road without ever moving my hand off the shifter. That’s driver friendly UI.

[@andyprem]

[@AwesomeDwarves]

What if instead we put cars on tracks, that'll really lessen the complexity of self driving. With them on tracks they could also be bigger, hold more people, and go at much higher speeds. Even if you did need a driver, you could have one for lots of people, making it very economical. Tracks also make coordination between vehicles much easier. Oh wait... Istg tech thinks everything can be solved with more, they never stop to think if it can be solved with less (or rather they know there's less money to make when you solve for less).

[@Chris-ci8vs]

Yep!

[@alt_zaq1_esc]

If you need tracks, get a train. There are already self-driving trains in commercial operation for decades.

[@mariokart6488]

Hi Adam Something😅

[@forte609]

Or maybe you know. Build cities that doesnt require much cars and a robust public transportation system so people wont have to buy cars.

[@via45]

They can barely maintain roads lol. Ever heard of trains?

[@paulfrydlewicz6736]

This failure is imo a combination of a couple factors: - underestimating the complexity of the task (real conditions are more than nice highway roads with perfect lanes an no traffic) - grossly underestimating human brain and sensoric capabilities (depth perception, situation awareness, etc, too much to write here) - over promising due to $$$

[@KameraShy]

A fundamental problem: The road infrastructure was not designed for self-driving cars. It was designed for horse and buggy and then expanded for those horseless carriages.

[@dobariyanaitikdineshbhai6832]

So according to you what would a road infrastructure designed for self-driving cars look like?

[@Pehz63]

@@dobariyanaitikdineshbhai6832 I would improve the road lines to make it more clear when they should be followed and when not. It doesn't make sense to have the current driving lane widen and open up to a second lane for turning. The turning lane should have a new line just for it, with no break in the straight lane's line. Often my Tesla on Autopilot will try to stay halfway between the lines and veer off a quarter of the way into the turning lane, only to jerk back once it sees the end of the break in the line. Otherwise, I think you'd need to massively overhaul almost everything if you want to make the problem much easier. Do things like limit what types of intersections exist (each new road condition is a new case that drivers have to learn and understand, which is harder to abstract for an AI). If you really wanna go crazy, you could replace things like road lines (which disappear under snow) with posts on the side of the road whose distance and various markings can be used to describe the road condition. Or better yet, have something like train tracks so the car never has to worry about staying in the middle of its lane.

[@ramakrishnamitta7024]

@@dobariyanaitikdineshbhai6832 "infrastructure designed for self-driving cars look like" - Trains.

[@dobariyanaitikdineshbhai6832]

@@ramakrishnamitta7024 But but, trains are boring, hyperloop or self driving cars sound more cool

[@ramakrishnamitta7024]

@@dobariyanaitikdineshbhai6832 Cars stuck in traffic, meanwhile trains go brrrrr.

[@octagonPerfectionist]

talking to people who think that self driving cars will be imminently a real thing makes me feel like i’m in the twilight zone. it’s literally like talking to crypto goons

[@octagonPerfectionist]

i guess it’s probably not your purview as you aren’t a tech channel, but going into the specifics of why self driving cars won’t work would be interesting too. machine learning is inherently unsuited for the task.

[@LoveClassicMusic0205]

I bet there is a lot of overlap between the two groups.

[@octagonPerfectionist]

@@LoveClassicMusic0205 considering elon musk became a beacon for scammers to latch onto this is likely the case

[@kriegfaust]

And Tesla groupies.

[@justinbarion2269]

Bro! What if I can get your self driving car to make crypto? With only three easy investments! 😂😂😂looooolll jk!

[@samsonsoturian6013]

Guys, it's the same "Move fast and break things" approach to technology that it has always been. It's just this time it's cars.

[@chiquita683]

Except now it's *"ki1l things" 😢

[@NightRidah777]

This time it's people and animals

[@egal1780]

You're totally right with that

[@samsonsoturian6013]

@@chiquita683 potentially. There are government safety checks with cars. And sit down and let me tell you about the Cold War....

[@samsonsoturian6013]

@@NightRidah777 there's been worse

[@vinaynarkar]

Wave if you want a self blending blender. A self bathing shower. A self shaving shaver. A self toasting toaster. A self cooking cooker. And a self drinking glass.

[@chiquita683]

Tech companies: "We have 0 fatalities of drivers in our self driving vehicles" Citizen: "Isnt the car the driver?" Tech companies: 😖🏃💨

[@Pantsinabucket]

Also these tech companies “We disable the self-driving mechanisms 1 second before we anticipate a crash so you can’t sue us.” They seriously think self-driving that demands your attention right before a crash is somehow safer than paying attention the entire time you drive.

[@tribalypredisposed]

Tesla has zero crashes with their full self driving beta being used. Yes, no crashes, no fender benders, nothing. Over 400,000 drivers using it.

[@Pantsinabucket]

@@tribalypredisposed as I said before, that’s because FSD automatically shuts itself off when it anticipates a crash, protecting Tesla from liability.

[@tribalypredisposed]

@@Pantsinabucket You having said it before does not mean it is not a lie this time also...

[@Pantsinabucket]

@@tribalypredisposed so is the NHTSA lying, or the company known for countless lies with a CEO who is the king of bullshit claims?

[@alizaburn8134]

First, you will pay monthly subscription for the self-drive software. Then you will be offered “priority pass” packages, so the car with the higher priority will pass the intersections and the obstruction before the others.

[@Arigator2]

They have to charge extra for self driving to settle all the lawsuits.

[@IvanBroes]

I used to drive 30,000 km a year. I adopted a few rules. always glance twice for something to emerge from a blind corner. the others always look at the driver in their cars… their eyes say a lot, body language.

[@franciscodanconia4324]

That second rule is key. I’ve avoided t-boning a few people pulling out of parking lots because I could either read their eyes, or not see their eyes at all, and therefore know they weren’t properly clearing before they pulled out.

[@SnakebitSTI]

_Especially_ true when crossing intersections not in a car. An A-pillar can hide you completely if you are on foot or on a bike.

[@josiahbirthright24]

"Without the expense of a human driver the profit margin would be extremely attractive". This says it all. Despite all the BS about saving lives, this is Silicon Valley's only motivation. That the CA government would be willing and eager to go along with such a dangerous and massively job-killing scam says a lot about how they view the working class.

[@basilmcdonnell9807]

Actually just stupid. Spend tens of billions to get rid of a cheap component- the human- that can by the way be produced with unskilled labor.

[@jimmahr.4665]

The job killing part. Don't fight progress. It only gives you anxiety. There used to be days where ditches were dug with shovels, today no one would want to, and exoskeleton called excavator does it while the operator gets fatter in his climate controlled cab twirling two joysticks. It will not be over night. Old experienced drivers will retire out of it, but there won't be a need for newcomers, would be the best way. Also it would be a shame if we were still needing to drive anything 200 years from now, and transition has to happen some time. Not speaking to the safety part, just progress alone. Same thing in all other aspects of technology. Forklifts replaced people carrying 70 lbs bags, cars/ trucks replaced horse handlers, press replaced priests copying books by hand, printers replaced presses, take everywhere screens replacing printers, and so on. And I am a truck driver, 26 years of it, used to look at it you do, but then... would it be a shame if i could wake up in my own bed every morning? Poke at a computer, cake job, no responsibility, not worry about a blow out... or a tensioning pulley braking off mounting bolts and nailing a car in the windshield but not figuring it out till a week later when realizing that there is no cooling fan while pulling a big anus wheel loader up eagle pass engine overheating... what? who where, maybe, we never found the object so... maybe, or some shmuck that drives 12 miles a day telling me I don't know what I'm doing with a vehicle 6-7 times longer then his, 15-20 times heavier then his? Another one, a pro that doesn't know what a third pedal is for... Lol. Don't worry, and plot how to better take over the world everyday, what better way to do it tomorrow. Me, I think I'll do cranes tomorrow, Lift things up, put them down, like a gym meat head but hydraulics and cables in AC cab... crap there is the getting fat again.

[@josiahbirthright24]

Truck driving can be a bear. Went along with my dad on weekends when I was kid. Also used to be a programmer back in the early Nineties. Assembler and Fortran. I could see where it was eventually headed; now I just fiddle with some tech here and there as a hobby. The goal of Silicon Valley isn't just to make workers' lives easier. It's to replace humans entirely, including tech workers. This is not just the Industrial Revolution all over again. This is a massive elimination of ALL human pursuit and purpose on an apocalyptic scale, instigated by a class of greedy, power-hungry sociopaths who despise pretty much everything about their fellow Earth-bound meat bags.@@jimmahr.4665

[@jacobnunya808]

It is good that there are people pushing progress. Imagine life if everyone stopped driving because walking is safer?

[@josiahbirthright24]

Well...I'm sorry but I can't see the steady push for humans to use less and less of our highly evolved and infinitely maleable brains so that a tiny group of misanthropic plutocrats can become even more insanely wealthy to be actual progress. @@jacobnunya808

[@MichaelGeneSullivan]

The city of San Francisco did not approve the self-driving cars. The State of California imposed that decision on the City, and the City leadership is fighting it. The only reason for self-driving cars is to benefit the bottom-line of corporations, whereas all they mean for most citizens is congestion, few jobs, and more dangerous streets.

[@noseboop4354]

In California corporations are more important than people, so this seems par for the course.

[@jacobnunya808]

Things like this could be said about any number of technologies when they were in infancy. Give it time, I promise you it will become very good. The money put into transportation is massive.

[@MichaelGeneSullivan]

That may be the case, it may not. History is littered with ill-conceived technologies that did not solve actual needs. Now there may be a limited use for self-driving vehicles, but the one thing they have not solved is... the lack of eye contact. In an urban setting eye contact with other drivers is often key to avoiding collisions. A little look, a little not, and we're safe. This is also very much the case with bicyclists. I drive and bike, and I can tell you I always look for some acknowledgement from my fellow drivers if we, for some reason, arrive in a situation where there are a few different ways things could go. But whether on a bike or in a car when I get to an intersection and there is no one to make eye contact with behind the wheel of the car in cross-traffic I don't feel safer. Mainly, while there are very limited uses, self-driving cars are a solution in search of a problem. @@jacobnunya808

[@claykennedy6790]

Even if they get the tech hammered out, I will never ride in or use one of these self driving cars. I like the act of driving. Turning that over to a computer feels like losing an essential part of my experience as a human. You do you, but I'll be dead in the ground before a robot drives me anywhere.

[@Aye_Nyne]

One of those cars nearly hit me when it suddenly merged into my lane with almost no warning while driving alongside it in downtown Austin. They're not ready to be on the road if they ever will be.

[@arnoldvosloo220]

Human drivers drift or suddenly merge into my lane quite often when I'm driving both on the highway and in the city (I'm in a developed country). I guess humans aren't ready to be on the road, if they ever will be.

[@dofus5435]

That’s why waymo was banned in Austin recently

[@gardnerbu9797]

Self driving may take a lot longer than originally expected, but saying it will never happen is insane.

[@HLH1222]

AI may make us more efficient it will never take our jobs. The difference between humans and AI is inspiration. We can see a situation and make up solutions for the problem with limited information. All the current AI is regurgitation the repurposing of things humans have ever done or though of. Until AI is able to create, and I mean really create most of the things this silicon bros are predicting will never happen, ever.

[@fanban2926]

@@HLH1222Lol. You are just an advanced neural net, you will be replaced.

[@heartfelt4387]

​​@@HLH1222if you think ai can't be creative you're missing out on massive advancements in last 5 years

[@HLH1222]

@@fanban2926 The fact that you read my message and skipped over the entire point indicates that you don’t understand the complexity of the human mind. Just good enough is not good enough and to boil down all of my experiences and decisions to being just an advanced neural net shows how little you know or understand about the human mind. Remember nothing humans have made copying nature is better than the original thing.

[@QuakerPop]

​@@HLH1222incorrect. Truly and utterly. Skilled machines will be much more effective and efficient at a large swath of jobs now done by people. A correct statement might be "AI will never take ALL our jobs." That is true, but a huge percentage of jobs will be squarely in AI's crosshairs

[@goodfractalspoker7179]

There are too many real life variables to account for in one or even multiple software programs to make these viable

[@biometal770]

This is the greatest point. Too many variables in life, with new variables created all the time. I don’t think we are capable of programming something that can account for unforeseen circumstances

[@epicwhat001]

@@biometal770so AI should predict the future now ? All it needs to do it’s react on a timely manner like a human would.

[@jacobnunya808]

For now. To work flawlessly on current roads they would need something approaching a human level of intelligence (or higher) in the sense they would have to think ahead with many variables that are not simple physics problems and use creative problem solving. When we get fully self driving cars I believe it will only be after roads have changed/rebuilt for them.

[@goodfractalspoker7179]

@@jacobnunya808 I think the best chance for this to work is for a smart highway in a sense where only controlled cars run on it so they can work alongside one another in harmony with one main central control unit.

[@shadowninja6689]

Self driving cars will 100% happen eventually, it'll just take a lot longer than people first thought. There's a lot of inventions we have today that people in the past confidently predicted were impossible or would never happen, with airplanes probably being the most prominent example (i.e. the infamous "heavier than air flying machines are impossible"). But I do agree that Cruise and Waymo are really overhyped at the moment.

[@fanban2926]

This is indeed true. It is an inevitably.

[@gbmoney8746]

Totally agree with this. WSM has a weirdly luddite take in this video based on very little actual data (just cherry-picking from improper sources for the Tesla bits). Definitely agree with cruise and waymo being overhyped though.

[@tribalypredisposed]

It will take 3-4 years. Tesla, making the impossible merely late. It somewhat astonishes me that after Elon Musk has already achieved a half dozen or more things that all the experts agreed were impossible we still have people confidently predicting that this time Musk will fail because it is impossible or cannot be done for a long time. Tesla has started building their car factory where they intend to manufacture their robo taxis, does that sound like robo taxis are coming a long time from now?

[@gbmoney8746]

@@tribalypredisposed yeah how many time can they be wrong about the same guy.

[@afh001]

There's no reason to think it's inevitable. Ask anyone 50 years ago and they would tell you flying cars were around the corner. Cool ideas that don't scale are a continuous blindspot for human beings.

[@franciscodanconia4324]

Funny how Teslas safety claims are the equivalent of Rainman saying “I’m an excellent driver”. “When did you drive?” “I drove slow on the driveway when my dad came to Walbrook.”

[@Bob-ke9in]

I agree self-driving cars are never going to happen. I don't even want to share the road with them.

[@rosabellavitaalvarez-calde5836]

Curiously enough the only people that I think would really benefit from self driving cars are those with disabilities and limitations that prevent you from driving. I hardly think so much money is being spent to make life easier for those people

[@user-it4zi6tt3x]

This is like saying "we will always use horses, gasoline is just a pipedream" ...

[@porcus123]

The data Tesla gave stood as hard as that "nuclear blast proof glass". Excellent video

[@TheRealJellyBomb]

Ah, self-driving cars. I remember when they were first deployed in 1826. Back then, horses were pulling the bus. Today, the buses have engines. Brave new world.

[@tylerhu603]

I own a Tesla and I can tell you right now I use auto pilot in normal streets all the time so it’s definitely not true that auto pilot only works on the high way

[@monsterguyx6322]

I'm absolutely convinced that popular demand for this technology is driven by people's desire to keep looking at their phones at every waking moment.

[@MisakaMikotoDesu]

Imagine if we had trains and busses, some of the safest form of land transportation in existence. Naaaaaaah

[@monsterguyx6322]

@@MisakaMikotoDesu True, but then everyone might actually have to deal with... other people! 😱

[@diogonunes1608]

When I travel to work, visit family or abroad I never drive the vehicles. To any Silicon entrepreneurs or investor interested in my idea, here it is: busses, trains and airplanes! These vehicles take me and millions everywhere, efficiently, cheaper, more environmentally responsable and with less worry about insurance, fuel, repairs, etc. You're welcome! ❤

[@ericli2936]

There's no money in public transportation. Thank you

[@lindadeeds5326]

I agree with you on everything but the efficiency part. Public transport is SO much slower than just driving directly from your house to where you want to go. Why would you expect people to agree to give up their time to get to someplace more slowly?

[@XYZdude00]

I remember back in like 2006, watching my friend yell into his cell phone trying to get it to make a phone call using its fancy brand spanking new voice activation feature. He could just press the buttons, but wanted to yell "Call MOM" several times into the microphone. Much like that we are seeing the adoption of a technology long before it is ready to be used in day to day life.

[@verygoodbrother]

Whole different ball game and voice assistant today aren't even perfect

[@XYZdude00]

@@verygoodbrother it's still tech. And I'm sure with some more time in the oven self driving cars will pan out

[@verygoodbrother]

@@XYZdude00 It won't

[@youtoobization]

How does the lady know to wave the driverless Waymo? If a pedestrian sees a driverless car, how is he supposed to react? We would have to educate the entire world or country on how to interact with driverless vehicle. Good luck with that. FSD is a pipedream.

[@kennyfordham6208]

The problem is plain and simple - Computers can't 'think'; they just run programs. 'Thinking' isn't a calculation. It's a quality that's unique to biological brains.

[@pistolen87]

A driver is responsible for one car. In self driving cars the company is potentially responsible for thousands of cars, so in case of an accident you have to shut down the whole companies fleet of cars. They need to have a perfect track record, which is basically impossible (at least currently)

[@hammerfist8763]

42,000 human-error related driving fatalities last year on US roads alone, and an entire fleet of robo-taxis is supposed to be shut down if one is in an accident? That's ridiculous. That type of knee-jerk thinking would have kept all of us in the stone age, unwilling to even use the wheel, simply because someone might die using a wheel.

[@cpm1003]

@@hammerfist8763 Anyone who has ever driven near these self driving cars realize how bad they suck at driving. It's not just accidents. It's pure incompetence.

[@pistolen87]

@@hammerfist8763 yes, from the perspective of the whole country accidents might decrease, but what about the accidents that do happen? Who will be responsible and take accountability?

[@sarthakmunda3914]

@@pistolen87 To your point, there's a whole emerging field of morality/ethics for machines. A common example goes like this: Picture a scenario, we have a self driving car and an unforeseen random event occurs and the car has to either swerve right and hit a pedestrian or swerve left and hit a motorist. At that moment, what should the carmakers program that the car should do? On one hand, the motorist is wearing a helmet, if the car swerves into him, the extent to his injuries will be lesser than to the pedestrian. On the other hand, it's almost like punishing the motorist for following traffic safety rules and wearing a helmet/other protective gear. In short, a trolley problem. These are very real decisions that an autonomous car will have to make. And in that event, who is responsible for those decisions?

[@hammerfist8763]

@@cpm1003 I've been in Cali recently and Austin now and around more self-driving cars than most people. Human drivers have done far worse. To the tune of 42,000. Can you even imagine 42,000 people's funerals, distraught family members and the damage to society? No. You cannot. Your mind shuts down and becomes numb and reverts to your personal experience with them.

[@ciro8861]

i can tell a good driver from a bad driver by watching how they drive. if someone ahead of me overtakes someone on a blind corner, i know to stay back. there's a lot of information needed for someone to drive ten minutes down the road so i am not surprised its proving difficult cause people are extremely unpredictable. after reading the article by ronan farrow's titled elon musks shadow rule, i now understand how a product that is killing people daily is still being allowed to operate

[@dmax5678]

One thing that I have noticed about the "miles of data" that self driving companies brag about is that a lot of the data is simply the car driving in a straight line on a clearly marked road in the Southwestern US. It's easy to collect accident - free data with weather and a road conditions that are cooperative. Now test the cars with potholes, faded or non existent lane markings, black ice, freezing rain, a foot of snow, etc.

[@KameraShy]

That is why they test in San Fran and not Chicago.

[@jacobnunya808]

Nobody is driving through a foot of snow, I don't care how talented you are.

[@lexusls]

@@jacobnunya808 "Nobody is driving through a foot of snow" lol how cute. What, do you really think that thousands upon thousands of trucks across the country just park it every time a snow storm hits? You silly goose. Or even better, that for the majority time throughout winter months, entire regions which see regular heavy snowfall just stop receiving freight deliveries all together and somehow have to make do without?? I have news for you... your local grocery stores and literally every other have AT BEST a handful of days worth of nonperishable product in back stock before the shelves would go bare. As for perishable items like produce, you're looking at 1-3 days max. If "nobody drove through a foot of snow" millions and millions of people across the US would be utterly fucked lol. Not only do we do *precisely* what you claim "nobody" is doing; thousands of us do it regularly - and while driving up and down steep grades of mountain passes to boot. I've already driven through a foot (and more) of snow multiple times this season just like I have every winter for nearly 10 years now. Do me a favor and look at the Oregon DOT road cams at chain-up areas over Mt Hood, Santiam Pass, Cabbage Hill, The Siskiyou mountains, etc etc anytime there's precipitation and you'll see dozens of trucks pulled over at any given time - at all hours day and night - throwing chains on so they can continue driving. I'll be sure to wave at you on the Mt Hood and Santiam cameras as I throw chains on my truck and trailer at 2am on my way to grocery stores in central Oregon from my Portland-based produce distributor employer's warehouse... because without *daily* deliveries from us and other outfits, there simply would be no food to buy. The same goes for countless parts across this country, because my company and hundreds of others carriers transporting critical necessities (like food and medical supplies) continue driving regardless of conditions and will only cease operations when we literally have no choice but to stop - i.e. the roads are closed... which happens very rarely. So yeah, self-driving tech would clearly be expected to perform under these conditions as a matter of necessity... and needless to say I'm less than concerned about my job security.

[@henlohenlo689]

the technology for self driving car would be good in a yard at a port or rail, not on real life roads, also inside a warehouse if robots can drive around on their own accord to move things around. but roadways is a number of issues. liability legally, human error you blame them. robbery theft and jackings, some people may attack these cars and steal parts etc. safety is a big one, with modern roads and driving you have to think out of the box beyond what a robot is capable of.

[@robruble6032]

I love how this guy says self driving vehicles will never get drunk, fall asleep, or text. Very true. But also very true that metal,plastic, glass, and rubber will never be able to understand why it is important to drive safe. Never understand feeling physical pain, or mental pain for loss of life. I can't believe people actually think this is a good idea. I question if their brain is fully developed.

[@rrnonya5472]

The human mind can simply do things far more complex than AI and put very little effort into it... Most of my driving is on "mental auto pilot" and my senses alert to me to "pay attention" when needed because the human mind can't be duplicated, simply can't be.

[@jacobnunya808]

Computers do not have to feel physical pain or sadness to be programmed not crash. I would rather have a car that is safe rather than one that gives me a crying emoji after it crashes.

[@TheAlexwilhelm]

I think the focus should be on freight first, you could move the majority of the traffic to the evening when it is less congested, and it would primarily rely on highways. While you work out the technology, you could even make the trucks just go from distribution center to distribution center on the edge of population centers.

[@afh001]

Or just don't bother doing that, and pay truck drivers a decent wage. The driverless bit is just innovation for technology's sake. It doesn't solve a real problem - it adds them if anything.

[@vampiresRsolame]

We already invented that, it's called trains.

[@weird-guy]

@@vampiresRsolamenot every city has train networks ,trains are less flexible

[@vampiresRsolame]

@@weird-guy I'm literally saying they should install trains if they don't have trains.

[@ownedmaxer607]

@@weird-guy Trains can transport supply cargo, heavy machinery, and people, whereas you need a completely different type of road vehicle to transport one of the examples given with an equivalent throughput to trains. You're right that not every city has extensive train infrastructure, but train can be more flexible than the glut of vehicle usage on the streets.

[@tocsa120ls]

Not just cars. A Serve delivery robot rolled through a crime scene a few months ago with the cops just looking at it.

[@weird-guy]

They didn’t know how to do with a tent in the middle of the sidewalk 😂,poor Marcus got robbed

[@MrBonified66]

It was probably their Dunkin Donuts order, amirite?

[@roccovergoglini7670]

I'm really glad you had the balls to say it. I agree that we'll never have totally self-driving cars in any kind of mainstream, everyday capacity.

[@joshbianco12]

I strongly disagree, but time will tell.

[@fanban2926]

We will. It's inevitable.

[@BloodRider1914]

​@@fanban2926Is it? Maybe in some places (mostly in more collectivist East Asian countries), but I don't think most people would be willing to give up any option to drive a personal vehicle. Dedicated lanes could happen, but it's much more efficient to save those for Buses, which can move much more people in the same area than a fleet of cars. That's not even considering the last mile problem, where two-lane suburbs and dense urban centres (aka the two most obvious commuting destinations) probably just won't have the room for dedicated autonomous vehicle lanes.

[@fanban2926]

@@BloodRider1914 It might not be adopted but it will be possible

[@tribalypredisposed]

LOL. Your expertise in Sociology or whatever is meaningless, and your opinion is meaningless. Having the balls to be proven completely wrong very shortly is not a positive trait.

[@niallsheehan474]

Thanks for calling out Bull. Now if only the AI folks had another working application we could gauge it’s worth , but I have yet to find one. Ai could cause the greatest Mis allocation of capital in history IMO.

[@biometal770]

This right here.

[@jacobnunya808]

Text to image, photography, games, advertising, coding, design, speech/image recognition, translation. AI still has a long way to go. Just because you don't have a robot butler doesn't mean AI is not being used or has no potential.

[@mx338]

Just build trains, they are the proven solution and safe for solving transportation since two centuries.

[@cpm1003]

AI is much much stupider than most people realize.

[@carultch]

AI is good at pretending to know what it is talking about, even when it is full of crap. Ask it unsolved problems in mathematics, and it will just give you words vaguely related to the prompt, without admitting it doesn't know.

[@elbee2324]

My relatively new car is semi-autonomous. It can regulate its cruise control based on traffic speed, even being able to come to a full stop safely as traffic slows down. If a car in front brakes suddenly, it can potentially override the driver and slam on the brakes if it's going to hit. If a car is in a blind spot, there are visual indicators, as well as audible ones if you are planning to change lanes. But... and this is a big but... it has sensors on the driving wheel which require you to be in contact with the steering wheel while moving every 2 seconds, with an automated visual then noise related warning if it continues. Even though in cruise control it can break safely to a full stop, gradually stopping speed, it will never start again without a physical prompt from the driver. These are all driving aids, meant to work *with* the driver to make the experience safer and help you in times of difficulty or emergency. It's not meant to be autonomous, and it does not even pretend to be so. What Tesla is offering is basically the same thing with more marketing and less reliability. Some customers expect that it's totally fine to let go of the steering wheel and stop paying attention, even in difficult situations. That's not what it's allowed to do in many regulated countries, but people believe hype over actual accountability sometimes. :-(

[@joeshmoe7485]

I don't want to say 'never' but I agree with you as the technology stands today.

[@dulio12385]

And at this point these cars are operating in relatively sane places like the United States. Imagine throwing this stuff into Delhi, Jakarta or Manila roads.

[@weird-guy]

When they can drive in India I will invest 😂

[@appalachiabrauchfrau]

came into contact with a tesla while going on a grocery trip on my horse, dude had his nose buried in his phone and his car tried to push me off the road. idk if it just didn't know what a horse was but I was on the road legally, we have horse parking here. If brought to places where livestock transport is even more common I'm pretty sure an update to recognize them would be necessary, or I predict a lotta flattened animals.

[@dulio12385]

@@appalachiabrauchfrau Imagine how much crazier it would be in Delhi or Hyderabad where Feral Cows wandering the streets are a thing.

[@mariusvanc]

Been saying it for years: self driving cars will not happen within my lifetime. Way too many very difficult problems to solve.

[@EmeraldView]

This is not an impossible goal. Autonomous vehicles will become a reality and the norm in time. When the vast majority of cars on the road are autonomous (along with infrastructure designed for them), they will be FAR safer than human drivers.

[@trancendental5373]

People still say that AI will take software developer jobs. They cant even get robots to drive cars 😂😂

[@lekmannen9990]

We often forget that we all walk around with the most advanced and mysterious thing we know of in the universe between our ears….

[@rogerevans15]

It was misleading of Tesla to say their cars were safer when they were effectively only driving in the safest driving conditions as the system is off otherwise. I wonder though, how do the robotaxis deal with this situation when the weather or anything else prevents them driving? There does not seem to be a backup plan. Cars are not computers that just cause inconvenience when they crash.

[@timop6340]

If they turn off autopilot automatically half a second before a detected crash, isn't their track record always perfect and human driver is always at fault?

[@rogerevans15]

That is a good point. Thank you. @@timop6340

[@tarekyared4404]

Musk being a misleading/lying sociopathic stock pumper!? Noooo

[@jacobnunya808]

Robotaxis have more sensors. Did you see that thing?

[@Moses_VII]

Neil DeGreasse Tyson said that we should regulate self-driving cars as we do aeroplanes so we can have a system which is absolutely safe, rather than only being safer than humans. Now that I watched part of the video, I learned that highways are good for automatic driving, but not for cities.

[@franciscodanconia4324]

Airplanes are not absolutely safe. You cannot regulate anything to be absolutely safe. That said, FSD is a pipe dream as long as humans and other unpredictable things are in the world.

[@tiararoxeanne1318]

This video had been at the front of this channel for months, even though a lot of videos have made afterward. Initially I wonder why. However, after watching this video I understand the reason. This video is ultra important because it could save lives. And I'm sure it has saved several lives since being uploaded. Good job👏👏👏

[@bernieoconnor9350]

So I'll buy a "self-driving car" so I can sit behind the wheel and monitor the driving?

[@austinh1028]

and pay $200/mo extra for it, if you even eventually qualify to enable it...

[@yourcheapdate4564]

Man, I'm so embarrassed. I was a big Elon fanboy back in the day and thought this would be the thing. After a bad install experience with tesla solar/powerwall, multiple friends with faulty tesla cars, and watching the cars brake and stop in our busy local (admittedly complex) four way intersection, my eyes have been cleared. I won't even get in my friends' teslas anymore, which I realize is an extreme step in the opposite direction, but you can't even open the doors if the battery is damaged and power goes out. Then you are just in a self heating bbq that water cannot put out!

[@franciscodanconia4324]

I have a friend that is a big Tesla fan and so is his brother. His brother bought a Model X . Very soon after he bought it, the car started randomly opening the gull wing rear doors. While driving. On a highway. At 75 mph. While people were sitting in the back seats. And they wouldn’t close, so he’d have to pull off the highway with doors wide open.Tesla would say they “fixed it” and it would happen again and again. Tesla was finally forced to buy it back as a lemon (the brother was a lawyer). Yet somehow they both still drive Teslas to this day.

[@JohnGotts]

Correct. In Michigan for long periods from hours to months, depending upon the road, there is only white. It's called ice and snow. Most roads are not plowed, and you drive on top of the snow or ice. If the road is plowed expect to wait days to see meaningful road markings. In Michigan we drive where it seems to be less slippery, not according to road markings we can't see. Self-driving vehicles are only being tested in California where it's 70-80 degrees year round and there is not even rain, let alone snow. 50 years or never before self-driving cars are working in Michigan.

[@Mark-kt5mh]

May Mobility is based and tests in Michigan

[@noseboop4354]

Those crash statistics are extremely misleading. So Tesla claims they have only 1 crash per 4 millions miles driven vs 1 crash per 500,000 miles general average, but Tesla only counts highway miles for the self-driving stats. Highway crashes, while more deadly, are much more rare in general than crashes in city streets because all you do is drive straight, you don't have to worry about traffic lights, pedestrians, left turns, etc. The most common crashes are in parking lots or other parking situations (such as exiting a driveway). To make this comparison fair you would need to use just the highway crashes.

[@meinelaterne5598]

they would probably work if there were no human drivers. If self-driving cars had a common protocol to communicate with each other and no pesky humans to worry about they might actually be safer. Provided they don't get hacked or something

[@sarthakmunda3914]

But you will always have bikes, cyclists, animals, pedestrians, pot holes, debris and a hundred other random events. Even if all the cars on the road are self-driving, there is no overcoming the fact that real life is full of random events and unpredictable humans

[@BloodRider1914]

@@sarthakmunda3914 The only way self-driving cars could reasonably work is on dedicated and separated highway lanes. Unfortunately, no one wants to stop on a highway.

[@sausageandbeanmelt4634]

@meinelaterne5598 Self-driving cars would require everything to be mappable... There is simply too much data to process at speed. If the goal is saving lives, there would be better options, but the goal is creating wealth by transferring the income and liberty through driving into the hands of a few.

[@charlieng3347]

@@BloodRider1914 Isn't that just a train?

[@deanchur]

@@charlieng3347 That's what I was thinking. There's already autonomous heavy rail operating in the Pilbara region in Northern Australia, but the only thing they're going to hit out there is cattle or kangaroos.

[@qamulek]

I was once behind a Tesla on a 270 degree on-ramp to the freeway. The Tesla went about 30% slower than regular traffic and would alternate between turning too hard and then too soft. At first I thought the driver was drunk, but then I realized it was probably the autopilot that was drunk. Can't deliver on robotaxis by the end of the year promise when the autopilot can barely recognize the road.

[@franciscodanconia4324]

Mostly likely it’s because the car kept recognizing the curving k-rail of the ramp as an obstacle.

[@frikkied2638]

Wow, "why full self driving probably never would happen"? That's a bold statement. What about 10 years from now, or 50, or 100? Never say never.

[@alfaeco15]

In case if accident, with injured people, how is the autonomous car going to help the injured?

[@RyguyK456]

Self driving cars are most definitely going to happen. These companies may be struggling but I highly doubt they give up completely.

[@User-sb6er]

Not in our lifetime and why should corporations have access to the technology? I hope that all that money they burn makes them to bankrupt

[@trogdorstrngbd]

I'm sure self-driving cars will happen eventually, but it'll be decades rather than years before they become ubiquitous. Highway driving is already more than halfway to viability. Driving in New Delhi at peak times is a different story. 😅

[@DesmondCheung]

How did you derive the 0.38 "Driver quality adjustment" at 7:56?

[@wallstreetmillennial]

Tesla reports that even without autopilot engaged Tesla drivers get into ~2.6 times less accidents per mile driven. They are not being helped by autopilot so this difference must be attributable Tesla owners being better drivers on average. Which makes sense as Teslas are expensive cars, and rich / old people tend to get into less accidents

[@DesmondCheung]

OK thanks! For what it's worth, Tesla have been cutting their prices across the board, and their cars will soon be much more affordable, so a more representative population of drivers (not just rich/old people) will soon emerge. We'll have more representative data soon. Re: Full-self driving, I'm guessing that your prediction is that, regardless of how advanced the neural networks become, FSD will never be widely adopted, correct?

[@verygoodbrother]

@@DesmondCheung Doubt it. With the lack of adequate infrastructure the demographic will not change for a very long time.

[@mtmadigan82]

The tesla fsd isnt just an option to purchase one time, its an active subscription service?

[@mrgj7025]

A lot of these problems will be solved once all cars are able to talk to each other..

[@Nightfighter82]

EV’s are a giant scam too.

[@ludwigvanzappa9548]

I invented a self-reading book. You have to read the book at the same time it self-reads to make sure it reads everything.

[@3-minutedatascience]

Good information, but I think you only gave a brief mention to a very critical point that should have been your whole conclusion on why self-driving is not working. Self-driving is not working because of outliers and edge cases being infinite in an uncontrolled environment, including stop signs with graffiti. Even the hand-waving of another driver can be considered a moderate edge case that wasn’t handled. This will be the factor that kills off self-driving cars.

[@LoveClassicMusic0205]

I've been saying the same thing. There are too many unpredictable variables for self driving to ever work.

[@franciscodanconia4324]

Case in point: on my commute to work where o turn left off the access road to a surface road, some genius installed the Left Turn Only sign directly in front of the stoplight for that lane, so you can only see the red and amber lights. I know it’s safe to turn because I know of both of those are off then the light is green, plus I can reference the lights for the lanes to my right. How does an AI figure that out, and be able to tell the difference between “bad sign install but the stoplight works I just can’t see it” and “the stoplights aren’t working”

[@misters6749]

Self Driving cars could potentially need to take in-input from Heaps of Cameras dotted around a city to work properly and safely. I can’t imagine they’d do very well without such support.

[@tribalypredisposed]

LOL.

[@arnoldvosloo220]

Why won't you take 10 minutes and read a bit about how it already works without those "heaps of cameras dotted around a city"? Prefer the bliss of willful ignorance?

[@misters6749]

@@arnoldvosloo220 no. More like “I try to post as quickly as I can on KZbin vids without completing the vid in hopes of getting likes”. But I’ll try and read like you suggested also😁

[@arnoldvosloo220]

@@misters6749 Well if your goal is likes then your way is def better lol, I'll give you that

[@misters6749]

@@arnoldvosloo220 appreciated. I’m a easily satisfied person👋🏾

[@Meowmeow.age.6]

Self driving cars will work out great if and only if every single vehicle on the road are self driving and can communicate with each other with less than 100 latency.

[@sarthakmunda3914]

But you will always have bikes, cyclists, animals, pedestrians, pot holes, debris and a hundred other random events. Even if all the cars on the road are self-driving, there is no overcoming the fact that real life is full of random events and unpredictable humans

[@tribalypredisposed]

LOL! Why do you have an opinion when you know nothing at all about the subject? Do you have opinions about the physics of black holes too?

[@afh001]

Which essentially requires a kind of car communism (somewhat hilariously).

[@IntegralKing]

maybe toss in some specially-designed roads to aid self-driving vehicles and technology, like wifi or gps markers to help identify boundary conditions

[@Kryssthealien]

In fact, in 20 or 30 years it might be possible, but by that time, we will know that the problem is individual cars not how we drive them.

[@REAL-UNKNOWN-SHINOBI]

My question is... Why is this only affecting Tesla and Cruise and not waymo?

[@thewatcher5822]

It amazes me how little people understand what Tesla is doing, and it amuses me that at the end you show a Tesla that had plowed into a box truck, as if this proves something. That accident happened a long time ago, and would not happen now. But more than that, you are quoting old data. the tech has moved on hugely over the last year and the Tech Tesla is using has many advantages over both waymo and cruise, as well as humans. People believe self driving is not going to happen. It absolutely will, and a lot sooner than people realise.

[@haroondaman7162]

We are currently the test dummies

[@thewatcher5822]

@@haroondaman7162 The dummies on the road have always been humans. people are not actually good at driving. Automation done right will be far safer than any human, and this is something that Tesla are about to prove. (not Waymo, Cruise) as they are very different systems.

[@adamalton2436]

Considering how dumb AI programs can be (dumb as humans who programmed them), self-driving vehicles should not be allowed on any public streets.

[@tribalypredisposed]

Version 12 of Tesla Full Self Driving does not have a single keystroke of code written by a human.

[@adamalton2436]

@@tribalypredisposed can you back that statement up with a citation?

[@tribalypredisposed]

@@weird-guy Tesla is adding 100 million miles of data every six weeks now, and as more people buy Teslas and the FSD package the rate that Tesla gets data at increases. The better FAD is, the more people who will buy it, so growth in data acquisition will not be linear. Elon Musk estimates Tesla needs ten billion miles of data and I estimate that will take three or four years from now.

[@zenbyo]

'So-called' FSD is working great these days

[@anthonycorey5448]

You need to keep all those cameras and sensors clean and working correctly. What a pain in the ass!

[@ReiniBlue]

How did you decide to use 2019 when Elon musk said he was confident that there will be self driving cars "next year" in literally 5 different years

[@FuckingRaccoons]

I think he chose that year specifically because he was talking about driverless robo-taxis and not just self driving in general.

[@arnoldvosloo220]

@@FuckingRaccoons Must be, because FSD is already in use in the US. From what I've seen it's pretty conservative compared to a human but it gets the job done.

[@Nohandleentered]

Can self driving do self parking? If it can park then that would be great. Fewer women trying to park would make the road much safer. That’s a statistic.

[@HardstylePete]

Humans don't just drive with eyesight. We use the inner ear to experience acceleration forces that massively help with driving with high degree of accuracy.

[@Ryanandboys]

I don't know if they'll never happen That's a big statement but they're much more complex than many people make it out to be for all the reasons you stated. As someone who has been a startup founder in has worked at big tech companies in the valley but also before that I was a farmer and I drove semi trucks and know what they have to actually do I think it's absolutely hilarious that serious people on TV and otherwise are worried about self-driving trucks taking over truck driver jobs and making millions of people unemployed driving a semi truck is orders of magnitude more complex than driving an automobile and truck driver's jobs are much more than just driving the truck they have to load and unload it find the place where they're going which is surprisingly very hard do all the old-fashioned regulatory paperwork off the times they have to bring products inside the business by hand up flights of stairs I have to collect money sometimes they're also sales people like in food service and offer customer service. The only part of that that's even plausibly capable of being done myself driving trucks is the line haul once it's already on the interstate good weather conditions. But most truck driving is local in towns and cities and involves all the above jobs. For example one of the jobs I sometimes do in the winter when I'm not busy on the farm is delivering home heating oil in a truck 50% of the job is finding where you have to go dealing with customers in physically moving the hose and loading the heating oil not overflowing it making sure everything is working right giving the customer the bill etc.

[@NightRidah777]

We should focus on dedicated roads for self driving. Intermingling with the average driver will be next to impossible

[@killersberg1]

How about trains, street rail or buslines. Focusing on individual travel so much is detrimental for everything.

[@NightRidah777]

@@killersberg1 This in my opinion is a pipe dream for the US. America is too big for that. We'd need to completely rebuild all our cities to be more compact to make that feasible. Even walking across a Walmart parking lot after getting off a bus is not something anyone would want to do as a standard way of living.

[@killersberg1]

@@NightRidah777 Yes the us was fucked by car manufacturers a long time ago. Not so where I live. We have bus , train and tram lines. My country is unfotunately also in the grip of car manufacturer as they generate a lot of revenue for our. But regulation is so tight that they could not destroy public transportation yet.

[@arnoldvosloo220]

Teslas with FSD already do exactly this, so evidently it's not impossible.

[@NightRidah777]

@@arnoldvosloo220 they create their own dedicated roads? Confused

[@zorintoto1167]

They aren't a pipe dream

[@chiquita683]

They are a Crack pipe reality

[@phallusy6574]

a (faulty) solution nobody asked for, to a problem that doesn't exist

[@lostinmuzak]

“Driving is a complex task” - hell yeah !!

[@matthewg7228]

8:00 another thing to consider is that Teslas are heavier and have much higher safety scores than most cars and trucks, further reducing deathrate in comparison to other cars which are less sturdy, lighter, and more top-heavy.

[@rayweil9942]

I agree. No sensible insurance company will insure them.

[@KameraShy]

I said that since the very beginning. They can NOT be successful until the (very conservative) insurance industry will insure them. Not likely in our lifetimes.

[@CommodoreFloopjack78]

Human drivers may be clueless and inept, but the sad truth is that there are far, far too many complications involved in replacing them.

[@casienwhey]

I've had several very close calls on traffic accidents. One that I will never forget was a time back in college that I was leaving my apartment complex at night. I was waiting at a light to make a left hand turn across traffic. Light turns green and 99.9% of the time I would go, especially when I was younger, but for whatever reason, I waited. A car going 60-70 goes right through the red light and would have t-boned me easy. I would have died or been severely injured had I not waited. How do you program intuition or divine intervention into a computer?

[@DLorenz19]

Self-driving cars are inevitably going to happen in enclosed spaces where only those cars are allowed and can communicate with each other In a second step many adjustments would have to be made so that the human error is not a big factor, it's like humanity has to follow a whole new set of rules when it comes to living with autonomous driving

[@orthosymplectic]

You cannot conclude that deaths per 100M miles are higher for Tesla by comparing 0.5 to 0.36 because 0.5 comes from only 15 events and has high sampling error. In Poisson approximation, we can estimate the error to 15 as sqrt(15)~4 which gives 4/3000=0.13 error for the rate, which is comparable to the difference between 0.5 and 0.36. Not to mention the error in the adjustment procedure that leads to 0.36

[@Visiontech]

Excellent analysis of the driving and people reading each other.

[@xelefonte]

*I hope WSM does flying cars next, why we still don’t have them as opposed to what Back to the Future predicted by now.*

[@brawnbenson552]

People can’t even drive their cars safely! Flying cars will never happen!

[@xelefonte]

@@brawnbenson552 yea I hope it never happens

[@wecameasdonuts]

“We already have flying cars, they’re called helicopters” - neil degrasse tyson