WAR UPDATE: Russia CLOSING IN On Tonenke; Infamous Iskanders

Make sure to like, share and sub!
Follow my Twitter - here's one of my recent tweets about Kherson: / 1705308929364730303
Join the Discord / discord
Link to my map (in progress), all the videos I talk about are linked there: www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0:00 Robotyne
5:01 Krasnohorivka
7:50 Avdiivka
14:24 Zherebets Front
16:23 Iskander Strikes AD Convoy

[@Theti]

24:40 should clarify that if the claim of 2 launchers is correct that isn't half of a battery because there can be 5-8 launchers in each battery, but in any case the loss would amount to a sizable portion of a PATRIOT battery if the claims we've seen about the destruction of a MAN KAT 1 truck and 2 launchers are correct. I'm not an expert in identifying systems so hopefully you understand why in the last portion of the video I try not to make definitive statements.

[@festekj]

Except Ukraine has been typically using 2 or 3 per battery. It’s not because the U.S. uses that many per battery that every country utilizing the Patriot system will do the same. Ukraine likely uses less to minimize loss or minimize costs.

[@Theti]

@@festekj Yeah very true, just mentioned that because the cost of the batteries used by the US that contain 5-8 launchers and the auxiliary systems amounts to 1.1 billion, but given the Ukrainians are using batteries with less equipment then it follows that the costs will also be lower in total.

[@charlesolinger9735]

If the radar portion of the air defense system is gone the entire thing is useless.

[@aaronpaul9188]

​@@Thetithe bulk of that cost is the missiles. Launchers and radar cost around $400m. So its very possible that with a large supply of missles the cost can be close to 1.1b even without 8 launchers. And alot of missiles were lost in that strike.

[@carkawalakhatulistiwa]

​@@ThetiThe most extraordinary thing that Russia has done is have a drone that can enter 50 km deep into Ukrainian territory without being detected. and Ukraine is still unable to shoot down Iskandar and tornado-s

[@dtsh4451]

Is Ukraine tired of winning yet🤣?

[@luisromanlegionaire]

Ukraine lines are about to crack very badly.

[@boxingstarcmbballer8797]

They have already knocked out at least 1 or 2 other patriot systems a couple weeks ago down between herson Avdiivka region in past 2 weeks and 1 nasam couple other S300 systems as well. They have knocked out at least 8-10 air defense systems in past 2-3 weeks within 100 km of front lines from images I have seen for myself

[@williammorris584]

I’d call this “Iskander Rolls Yahtzee vs SAM Convoy”

[@bill-nn1vp]

good effort bro.. appreciate it!!

[@harvesteasternedge]

Thanks for your work!!

[@yesiamarussianbot3076]

Seems like the Ukrainians are throwing their best units into the meat grinder west of Avdiivka where they fight with no defensive positions and are likely suffering heavy casualties to to win some time, as can be seen be the losses of the Abrahams tanks and Bradley vehicles.

[@jamessmithers4456]

By best forces, we need to understand the neo-nazi Azov, Karken, and other ethno-nationalist extremists all of which have a affection for symbols which adorned the Waffen SS troops

[@cloudrdr]

I actually don't think the Russians are trying very hard right now. They use the tactic: Pummel Position - Small Advance - Take a Hit - Withdraw - Pummel where you were. Rinse and repeat. These moves all along the line are probing or pulling moves...just like one would do in chess. The Ukr responses are programmed and irrespective of resource considerations...more like desperate poker. Gentlemen, we have got us into a poker game against chess players; moving pawns and knights to set up that "WHAAT!" moment when you see your game is over. I hope the French are just taking a piss, cause getting into the middle of domestic disturbance is a nightmare.

[@kevinp2593]

Enjoy your analysis, great as usual 👍👍👍

[@tucker2074]

The destroyed cabs looked like Himars

[@Imperatorcf]

Thank you for the update!

[@ivancakulev2047]

Excellent video as always!

[@The_Prince_Of_Crows]

This is the "Syrski effect" at work with the SAM batteries being moved closer to the front or point of contact. He took over and they pushed them back in toward the front and have paid for it dearly. There is almost no evidence for Russian SU-34 and SU-35 losses but plenty of evidence that Zhalusny's decision to keep them back wss the only thing keeping them from being wiped out with a quickness. This is the kind of thing you see in war when a major command change occurs. Zhalusny has been vindicated for keeping them away from the front and this shows how deadly Russian ISR strike capability truly is.

[@tudomerda]

FAB 500 and 1500 love large gatherings of humans.

[@Hereford1642]

Dear Mr Theti, do you have any idea about what further brigades Ukraine has in reserve and their quality?

[@christosswc]

It's been very hard to judge the impact of the FABs on the Ukrainian army, how accurate and effective they have been. Things though seem to be clearing up of late. The efforts of the Ukrainians to move their air defense assets close to the frontline to counter despite the dangers made all too ovious by their frequent losses, as well as the successes that have been attributed to their heavy use in capturing Avdiivka point to their significant impact. Are they going to be THAT game-changer remains to be seen, they however seem to have given the Russians confidence they can storm any major Ukrainian city by virtue of flattening their defensive fortifications. Their range has been increased with the recent addition of rockets and now there are already reports they have been converted to sort of budget guided missiles with the addition of a turbojet engine. They are still a one-trick pony but when you're the one assaulting that's the exact trick you need. Ukrainians don't have a counter atm and the Russians remain one step ahead with their upgrades.

[@ifv2089]

The Fabs are now upgraded with a engine booster unit attached To the glide system 😮

[@larrycera9276]

And now they appear to be making 1500’s at a much greater, mass scale

[@riversidegardenradio9070]

If the one trick is effective you do not need another trick until that trick as been counteracted. What the Russians are doing is employing tactics that would be effective against any known force and if it cannot be countered then thy can conclude there is no existing defense anywhere.The term Fabbing as now entered military vocabulary.

[@kingone78]

Unleash the ghost of Kiev

[@omarb1912]

How did they loose the trenches in the first place?

[@patrickcerta4998]

Z 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺

[@davids8449]

Suddenly everyone is an expert.......

[@ifv2089]

I'm not but I think Russia is crushing Ukraine.

[@craftpaint1644]

There are so many drones watching the landscape that every Ukrainian missile system driving forward is driving straight into the jaws of death. If we think that's nuts then we are more expert than General Syrski is.

[@seanmurphy1704]

How come there appears to be no large crater where this islander hit, was it an airburst ?

[@seanmurphy1704]

Iskander

[@user-qn2tp8rt1k]

can you put the youtube link of url?

[@frankmackinnon8858]

Sound is almost unintelligible.

[@theone3792thatis]

Slava theti

[@craftpaint1644]

The Ukrainians have so few artillery and the Russians are flying so many sorties from such long range that missile systems are having to move closer to the front line and Ukraine is losing them all. 🇺🇸/👁️\🇷🇺

[@jimmyjams9036]

Sad that human life is cheap.

[@covrtdesign5279]

Not really. Every single species, bacteria, moss, etc does the same thing, we just make it on a scale that we use emotion for.

[@MunirChowdhury-hm9qm]

Welcome Ukrainian poodle. Ilove you.

[@John_Pace]

As a cost benefit analysis, where a Russian A50 control EW airplane costs $500 million, and a patriot costs $1,000 million, humm.... While not as bad as a US ship sending a $2 million missile to shot down a $2,000 Houti drone; the cost benefit is still in Russia's benefit.

[@Rigil-ry5ut]

Patrirot system cost around 1.1B plus 300M-400M for the missiles. Both sides are losing somethin. This is Russia Vs NATO proxy Ukraine

[@technoartfest8708]

NATO lost TWO patriot systems in that video and 1 S-300 there ,that likekely was from slovakia that they had one . So each patriot 1.1billions , so this is about 2.3 billions dollars in losses. plus the NATO crew operating the patriots , In just one strike.

[@fred4687]

Also there is no conclusive proof of an A-50 being lost. There was nothing at all for the 1st claim and multiple reports about the 2nd being an il-76. A-50's don't need to fly anywhere near the front line and will always be accompanied by fighters.

[@John_Pace]

Agreed. I made the assumption that even if the Ukrainians did shoot down the two A-50, the cost-benefit analysis will still favor the Russians.@@fred4687

[@AethelwulfOfNordHymbraLand2333]

Also bear in mind that 'Patriot' is no longer produced and has no successor system

[@gurokrater]

Kan not old planes from 1. WW for example deployed to the frontline and just have the task to fight against drones?! It is a serious question!

[@johnboykin3128]

Yes but why use pilots? Just use counter drones/ drone hunters

[@bjorntorlarsson]

They would be too vulnerable to everything else. But the analogue to WW1 is interesting. That was the birth of the airforces. And with drones today we see a similarly dramatic experimentation in aereal warfare. Drones fighting drones coming up, perhaps? Why not put a mahine gun on them? Wired drones have recently been introduced to make them immune against electronical warfare. What I don't understand is however those sea drones manage to sink any ship. 100 years ago they were called "torpedos" and had the great advantage of being submerged. For a noisy torpedo-drone to advance over vast distances on the surface, extremely visibly, without being destroyed and still surprise its target, that cannot be anything but horrible mismanagement by the defending fleet. No medals for the Russian Navy in this war.

[@Hereford1642]

The sky is a big big place. Flying around and hoping to spot drones visually would be fairly hopeless. In Guy Gibson's account of his war - Enemy Coast Ahead - he talks about his time flying night fighter duties. Even when directed by ground radar he almost never actually managed to locate the enemy aircraft. And Gibson was no slouch; later in the war he led the famous dam busters raid.

[@georgiosnanos9177]

Stop talking who is going to win this war. In any war there are no winners, only loosers...

[@Beeworker]

Russian localized air superiority? Tell that to President Zelenskyy and the German or Greek government officials that visit Ukraine.

[@carlobinda1127]

Hold on a minute. How in the world would a missile get through it Ukraine always intercept 200% of them??? 🤔

[@jasonkozlow3225]

Thay say the convoy had patriot but thats ba those were Soviet air defense systems qnd thy only hit one or two in the collum also you cant make out the vehicles qnd explosion looked more like sovit mlrs giting hit.just saying you hy cant russia get clear video on these destroyed air defense.

[@JohnnysCafe_]

победа России 🇷🇺

[@americanfortruth]

Ukraine destroys 100 vehicle's Russia 0 doesn't look good. All in a 2 block area. This looks bad!

[@beachbikerun]

Try again this time with facts, and In English, most people don't understand gibberish !

[@user-hv3ml7wx3o]

😂😂😂😂 American for lies and fake news 😂

[@jeffmaxwell7391]

Don’t forget the Russian economy right… TATTERS 😁

[@beachbikerun]

@jeffmaxwell7391 2024 Russia has moved into 4th in the world PPP GDP 2.6 growth. Combined European GDP .07 Russian military spend for 2024 is 170 billion, which is already paid for. (2023 Russian profits).

[@jeffmaxwell7391]

@@beachbikerun I was being sarcastic

[@deus5185]