What's Going On With a Predicted 2024 Star Explosion That Hasn't Happened?

[@veterangaming9511]

Thank you for literally being the only person to talk about this directly

[@yomogami4561]

thanks anton i had wondered why they were predicting early even though it hadn't been 80yrs yet but you gave the information i needed for that

[@someguy-k2h]

It seems that none of these scientists told the star it had to go nova before September. Maybe it's just really busy right now. Maybe it has scheduling conflicts.

[@BronzeDragon133]

It's getting its hair done and won't have time to nova until October.

[@ProfessorJayTee]

To be fair, stars are often busy and in high demand in many places... they also demand (and get) high fees!

[@y180sx5]

Imagine having this star in your D&D campaign 🙄

[@BronzeDragon133]

@@y180sx5 Eternally late and occasionally explodes and sterilizes the entire area around him? Yeah, he's already in my group, thanks. Don't need another one.

[@MeissnerEffect]

Or Covid!

[@BapsyGames]

I'm still going with September 17th... My mother's birthday. It would be nice if it happened in 2025 on that date because that will be her 80th 😀 (Mum, I got you a Nova for your B'Day) 😁

[@theamericane2655]

Watch it go off the day after this is uploaded

[@davidstevenson9517]

Sounds like something my ex-girlfriend used to say to me...

[@charliegarcia7821]

Oh well ! Don’t worry Anton , time to head back to the board and recalculate the numbers .

[@lexpo181]

Great video Anton. When the weather permits, I try to observe the Corona Borealis constellation to document it by using binoculars and taking pictures. Hope to see TCrB soon... It would be a cool add to the photos collection.

[@yzScott]

I hear its brightness is dipping now. Perhaps action is eminent.

[@billcarruth8122]

If this happens every 80 years, and it's 3000 light years away, that would mean it has done it's nova explosion 37 times since the last one that was visible, and the visual light show from each one is currently en route to us.

[@Andromedon777]

This is the one channel where the community obviously knows how light works.

[@jasonn9222]

What you said makes no sense unless I'm missing something. It's happened 37 times since the last visible one? I think you meant it happens 37 times in the time it takes one nova to reach us but they're all visible. There are 37 explosions en route at all times. We see them all if they are in fact visible to us. Correct me if I'm wrong

[@Mduffy-yo6rb]

That doesn’t work that way at all. It’s only done it once since the last tie… because it only happens every 80 years. The space in between has had it happen 37 times from the origin. That light exists. But it still occurs… every 87 years lol.

[@billcarruth8122]

@@jasonn9222 The last visible one happened 3000 years ago.. It has exploded 37 times since then, we have yet to see these events.

[@kellyobrien8599]

Probably cloudy, the entire time... ☁️☁️☁️

[@MrAspden]

Ok here it is. Thanks

[@jasonpatterson9821]

I'm honestly hoping it holds off until February because it will be very low in the evening sky and/or morning sky for the next few months.

[@michaeljfigueroa]

Time is the greatest arbor

[@Ankles]

this is absolutely a big deal, the pleasure of seeing a new blip that you know will disappear within a week i find to be fascinating

[@mikethespike056]

Once... there was an explosion. A bang that gave rise to life as we know it.

[@pabloloerag.5368]

I have been waiting at my observatory for two months now , damn star is now at air mass = 2 at sundown.

[@davidbonar5190]

it's just shy. performance issues when all the cameras are pointing at it...

[@EngiRedbeard]

We know exactly how they work, but it didn't happen the way we predicted...yeah, that checks out.

[@stargazer5784]

There are many of these close binaries that have been catalogued over the years involving red giants and white dwarfs. This is fact, not assumption. If they orbit closely enough, then recurrent novae occur when cannibalized hydrogen from the extended envelope of the red giant builds up to a sufficient quantity on the surface of the white dwarf. Afterward, the process begins anew. From a physics perspective, there aren't really any other viable options that adequately explain what's being observed from these systems. When an extremely dense object orbits close enough to a very tenuous object, it's going to draw material from it's companion. Simple enough. The devil is in the details. The rotation rate of the white dwarf, pulsation of the red giant, and other factors may make exact predictions of when the next explosion will occur problematic. The team/teams of astronomers that try to publicly place firm constraints on when the next explosion will happen are taking a chance of being made to look like monkey's uncles. LOLOL !

[@PuzzledMonkey]

Based on previous experience, this once in a lifetime event will occur when Seattle's night skies are overcast and raining for 30 days in a row. So, this November?

[@RadicalCaveman]

In Seattle, isn't it ALWAYS raining 30 days in a row?

[@TheGuruStud]

I thought that was just fires from BurnLootMurder?

[@rolandblock2530]

It only rains from October through June. Couldn’t get the F outta there fast enough

[@sidsuspicious]

@@TheGuruStud

[@borismedved835]

@@rolandblock2530 One of the times a guy I know in Eastern Washington babbled that sort of thing, it was 20 below zero outside his house and about 35 above in Seattle.

[@rolandblock2530]

Without a model, they’re just using a Farmer’s Almanac to predict the date

[@charlessharrardiii7086]

Since its very far away the light might be getting interfered with as it transits to us. I think you will discover that light speed is actually variable and begins to slow down as it encounters dust etc.

[@timblack6422]

I’ve been waiting also. Took pics every few nights of that region… nothing…

[@borismedved835]

I don't know the age of that star, but I never believed that the events of the last one of the few hundred million years of its existence could be accurately predicted.

[@LordOfNihil]

i just know it will be cloudy out when it happens.

[@davidstevenson9517]

When Halleys Comet made it's last appearance in 1986, it rained for 3 weeks... so it does happen. Three months later, I moved 1,000kms north to the warmer climes of my country. Hello from New Zealand.

[@ccvvxxbbbbxxvvcc7541]

It's because the government is at war with the supernova but they owe more money in debt than they can pay in interest so we're stuck in a confrontational anomaly that warps the space time continuum

[@anthonyfenton1644]

May 24th, not just next year, but every year to 2030.

[@Benjamin0119]

January 16th, I like it. That's actually just 3 days from my own birthday. 😄

[@Jameswebbtelescope7484]

Ok. Phew.. I was worried I missed it 😭😭

[@rey273]

dont worry, it doesnt seem like the type of thing you can really predict, even if you have a ton of info. its a supernova, i don’t think they operate on human timescales. we’ll probably see it in our lifetime, and that’s enough for me!

[@y180sx5]

Slightly off topic, and maybe a video idea, BUT with all that material flying around a white dwarf, do planets form from that? I understand if there are these outbursts, it may break them apart again but what about white dwarfs that are less active and are getting these accretion discs but don't go off very often? Maybe millions or billions of years between any activity.

[@ReaperCheGuevara]

I was expecting it and I'm sorry if that sounds ridiculous.

[@joobyzat1221]

So you're telling me there's still a chance...? I'm still hoping for an event on my wedding anniversary in September!

[@robpearce5154]

Hey Anton, we have the same birthday, Jan 16th. Except that mine is 1950! A fellow Capricorn...

[@davidstevenson9517]

It was written in the Stars...

[@justin8894]

Star no boom. ☀️

[@brianmcguinness9642]

I have been going out regularly looking for the nova with binoculars. I'm worried that it won't nova until after it has been lost in the twilight.

[@mhmt1453]

It got bad gas from the other star, and now it’s not running right!

[@steinarvatne6789]

New theories or models put forward now would presumably omit results that place the event in the past 😅. Isn't there a risk of jumping to unscientific conclusions when someone's new model just happen to predict something that perhaps has a large random element?

[@davidhoward4715]

This is gibberish.

[@steinarvatne6789]

@@davidhoward4715 You could be right! ;-) I suppose the winning strategy often is to come up with lots of possible models and then wait to see which sticks. It only struck me that IF the exact timing of a predicted event has a considerable random factor, one cannot put too much emphasis on this timing as an indication of the correctness of a particular model. However, as you are probably alluding to, scientist are well trained in handling the logic and statistical requirements to make such determinations, and I should shut up about it! :-)

[@ken2391]

​@@steinarvatne6789no you shouldn't just shut up about it. Especially when people, scientists, are repeatedly predicting events happening that demonstrably don't happen. The simple fact is: They frequently don't know what they're talking about and you don't need to be a "scientist" to recognize it.

[@steinarvatne6789]

@@ken2391 I don't want to appear like I don't understand the difference between "predictions" put forward by Nostradamus (or your average opinionated internet troll) and those made by some model in a science paper. I generally admire and respect scientist, who are in a sense trained to come up with proposals that will more often than not be proven wrong, and to risk that embarrasment in the interest of forwarding knowledge. I suppose in this particular instance my laymans intuition was that there would be a sizeable random,(or at least unpredictable) element in the determination of the precise timing of this event, and that this would somewhat diminish what one could hope to learn from it, but my intuition could also be complete shit! ;-)

[@ken2391]

@@steinarvatne6789 I'm just saying that you don't have to be an over educated "scientist" to be able to recognize and comment when someone is wrong. And I think your original comment is absolutely right. 👍

[@tommyfox8041]

The white dwarf can only draw so much hydrogen per cycle. If it's done it in the past over and over again it's getting harder and harder for the white dwarf to draw hydrogen from the red giant. So intervals will start to increase in time. Per cycle until eventually there is no more hydrogen to draw. Then the red giant will collapse on itself. And that is going to be the show... But who am I to give a good theory on why the intervals are increasing

[@epistemologicalnihilist5746]

Me and anton share a birthday!! Less go

[@nicholasdetweiler7906]

Anton, I love the channel and recommend it to anyone I think might be interested. Is there any chance you'll cover the material contained in Luis Elizondo's book Imminent?

[@Martiandawn]

Is it possible the frequency is shorter than 80 years, and some explosions were not recorded?

[@danielle78730]

LOVED this one!! ;)

[@DJ-bh1ju]

Think of the technological advances since 1946. In another 80 years we might even be able to GO there and watch it.

[@kitwest61]

Thats my birthday too 🎉

[@UnmutingTheMuted]

I saw a very bright blinking star few minutes ago. I live in india 🇮🇳

[@davidstevenson9517]

That was me down here in New Zealand trying to secretly communicate with your sister. I won't tell you my address... and neither will she. Go back to sleep.

[@yvonnemiezis5199]

Ringing in my left ear,will tell me😃👍

[@michaellewis5200]

Am I right to assume that over time the partner star that is being striped of massive will eventually become unstable and explode?

[@postmodernmining]

A recurring Nova is reruns of Cosmos 😆

[@robertanderson5092]

A watched nova never explodes

[@JoeBorrello]

This is the first time I ever heard the term “eat my own shoe”.

[@davidstevenson9517]

Once, it was "eat my hat"; but hats went out of fashion years ago... except for baseball fans.

[@kenroberts5768]

The procrastinator’s vote WINS‼️. We were gonna say it would be later, but just didn’t get around to it❗️🤪

[@djdrack4681]

If the star can spin at 200km/s, but only orbit galactic core at 100km/s (avg), then it appears to be another wrench in cosmic expansion? Galaxy velocity for CE are 47 or 67km/s (/CDM or or Ladder-Dist). We know 'frame dragging' is a thing with relativistic speeds; but are we not accounting for a 'frame friction/energy bleed-off' If the star's angular/orbital velocity is higher than what it'd be from gravitational effects of SMBH at center (on its own), how long can that higher velocity be maintained? and 'what/where' is that energy converted once it is lost? (Friction, Collisions, Visc Dissipation, Conduction)...Whether you want to look at the kinetic energy -->thermal energy, and whether its at a subatomic scale or more macro...there'd be huge amounts of energy being dumped into the space around the star as it slow slows down.

[@macronencer]

I was wondering what had happened to this! Thanks for the update. I'm still slightly unsure about exactly how bright this will be... will it be easy to find with the naked eye? I'm at least glad I've now had my cataract operation so I'll stand a better chance of actually seeing it in focus! My distance vision is so much better than it was a few days ago :)

[@johncopithorne6176]

Are you able to see Polaris? It's expected to be about that bright in our night skies for about a week.

[@macronencer]

@@johncopithorne6176 Thanks for the info! I'm not yet sure how well I can see stars, as I haven't had a clear sky yet - but I'll definitely remember that :)

[@JessiV111]

Election Day

[@davidstevenson9517]

Or... NEWS FLASH!!! Jan 05, 2025, Washington Post: "NOVA Party Expected on White House Lawn Tomorrow"...

[@ucantSQ]

Seems a lot like nuclear decay. We know the half-lives, but we can't predict when a specific decay will happen. The period is known, but not the exact date.

[@XtianApi]

What if there's a large planet on an eccentric orbit that is only now coming back around? Also during these hydrogen reactions hydrogen is fusing. Wouldn't did that change the timing a bit?

[@davidhess6593]

No need to apologize. I never believed it for a second .

[@mykota2417]

Future predictions are good fun. Nothing more.

[@ivornelsson2238]

"Were astronomers wrong", a sentence asked in the introduction. ----- No, they WERE not wrong, they ARE wrong. Stars don´t explode, but gets electromagnetically charged and cyclically relief discharges, just like our Sun.

[@ledarbyromeo9667]

One could say that the relief explodes out from the star. Terminology used by everyday folks + science terms + money = we laymen don't give too many shoots about the more descriptive verbs to explain a powerful outflow of energy.

[@ledarbyromeo9667]

I grew up reading Lord Byron's work. One could say, "The celestial bodies experience that which we humans experience. We all go through a metamorphosis, shedding our mortal coils, and our spirits are loosed upon the heavens, and we transverse this realm through energies unseen. As powerful as our passion exploding from our loins, the stars too explode their passions into the ether."

[@cleanerben9636]

it's nervous. can't explode while we are looking.

[@Jasonfallen71]

This “hot” crazy action has got me binary curious for sure I’ll be watching 👀

[@davidstevenson9517]

Holy Cosmos!!! Observers have also seen White Dwarfs and Black Holes congregating In the Stellar neighbourhood. They, too, are caught in the endless Spiral that causes them to gravitate towards one another...

[@michaelmcgowan7099]

Perhaps the mechanism that produces the explosion is slowing down, to say nothing about the variability.

[@tylerj.6973]

Our bdays are similar!

[@alexeykrylov9995]

About thermonuclear explosion happening in the accretion disk. I highly doubt it, because the accretion disk is probably cooler and less dense than the outer atmosphere of the companion star, and it's clearly deeply below ignition point. I thought the ignition is expected to happen on the surface, where the accreted gas is confined there by the gravity pit of the small dense star.

[@DudeBoerGaming]

Love the videos but just find it ironic to say "we know exactly how they work" yet, they dont work according to how we thought, thus we dont know exactly how they work at all

[@George-rk7ts]

Anton, there is nothing to be apologizing for. If you don't predict the correct date for something that has been observed so few times, and for which we have no model, the margins of error are bound to be huge. You're sharing science with the public, which is so incredibly valuable. Stay wonderful. Stay the course. Stay Anton.

[@steinh04]

I would add: Honest and admitted mistakes are highly underrated

[@bjdefilippo447]

Agreed. It's not like he caused its failure to explode. We can't do more than make the best prediction the data allows.

[@CaptainDickGs]

Still he presented incorrect & false information to viewers who have became to trust what he pushes as truth.

[@awlabrador]

As with a lot of things in nature, it doesn't happen if it knows you're watching for it.

[@jcee2259]

Because our species ask this question I see no reason another on or off this planet cannot.

[@jeanwalker5106]

5:45 If there was a Nova then there was a dip in the curve shortly before, but not necessarily the other way round. Without modelling these "predictions" are little more than reading the tea leaves.

[@straightothepoint]

When a star explodes and the explosion radius hits another star, does the star it hits explode as well? Or just get engulfed?

[@ma-li3935]

Rigil Kentaurus , have there been good photography? as it is the closes star there should be a lot known about that binary/trinary system

[@DougieJohnson-l5w]

send someone out to see what went wrong, like when you light a firework that goes out and when you go over to fix you die of old age before getting anywhere close, and it goes off in your skull's dust?

[@lipgloss202]

Did Anton just take on responsibility for a star not going nova?

[@dergebeater9614]

This study ws made by the man of science! ZA MAN OF science!

[@theeniwetoksymphonyorchest7580]

I can say with 100% certainty that it will happen on someone’s birthday.

[@smashy_smasherton]

I saw it. Anton must have went inside to watch Matlock or something…😊

[@khancoffin6850]

What star group is it gonna be in??

[@stargazer5784]

Corona Borealis.

[@mr.zafner8295]

Isn't this the plot of the three-body problem

[@rael5469]

"Once in a lifetime explosion didn't happen after all." Wait.....have we given up on it already? Can they predict something like that THAT close ?

[@whiskeytango9769]

So, it's 2990 ly away. That means that if it explodes every 80 years or so, it will have exploded 37 additional times since the light we see left the star.

[@douglaswilkinson5700]

True. However, astrophysicists timestamp events when the their light reaches Earth.

[@whiskeytango9769]

@@douglaswilkinson5700 Yes, understood...I just thought it was an interesting fact to think about.

[@douglaswilkinson5700]

@@whiskeytango9769 Yes. There are other quirks in astrophysics. The term "dwarf star" means it's a main sequence star fusing hydrogen. This means that the star bi253 -- an extraordinarily rare main sequence O2V in the LMC -- is a dwarf. Yet it has almost 100 solar masses. And a white dwarf can be either a main sequence star or the dead corpse of a star.

[@cidie1]

But if no one saw it, did it really happen?

[@whiskeytango9769]

@@cidie1 We will see it though, that light is on its way here now.

[@Thimbrethil]

Anton please, no matter what dont eat your shoes 🙏

[@dinomite592]

We look to the sky / to see the promised new star / but the void is cold

[@trebell885]

If I have more; particle's in mi being, than the sand's of time. How relative am I, two the big bang?

[@R_C420]

Gonna happen on Christmas

[@nomdeguerre7265]

💥

[@nilo70]

Well, they didn’t mention WHOSE lifetime 😅

[@Law0086]

I want my 15 minutes back from last time... 😂 You also can't tell me that absolutely nobody out there, with a science degree, said that it wasn't going to nova. There's always that one person.

[@EdMorbius46]

Thanks, Anton. You are my favourite science commentator. Bearing in mind that the Huygens probe in 2005 chose 14 January (my birthday) to land on Titan, I feel lucky. So I pick 14 January 2025 for this explosive celestial event. But a couple of days is a mere nothing in this universe, so I will consider us both winners if it happens anytime that week. 🙂

[@zainalabidin-cz3ee]

I've waited since February…

[@NancyRode-u9i]

🙋‍♀️💖anton everyday

[@BobbyChipmunk]

New guess! Right before halloween, because that would be neat

[@witwisniewski2280]

Maybe this video has un-jinxed it and now it will nova.

[@RadicalCaveman]

It's just saving itself for your birthday.

[@JasonGuySmiley]

There's no way this random star popping off was more anticipated than the total solar eclipse! 😂 but it would be nice to see this too

[@fearlessjoebanzai]

Bloody'ell, it just happened 25mins ago... oh well

[@spvillano]

We can't predict earthquakes and volcanoes right here on earth, but we expect a recurrent nova prediction to be accurate from many lightyears away? Three words confound their predictions. Small. Sample. Size. We'll get there, as we refine the science and get increased observations numbers.

[@petepanteraman]

Hmm... Estimate for June 2025

[@keithrosenberg5486]

Exactly how they work? Obviously a bit less than exactly.

[@HarryONeil]

This is my absolute favorite KZbin channel, and Anton is the best science "communicator" online, period! I just love to listen to him, learning new things every time!

[@MrBigdaddy2ya]

You must like watching people eating crow

[@Jeonex]

My life consists of binging Anton and Professor Dave’s videos whenever I’m not studying languages.

[@ceramicfish4934]

I agree, but also like Faiser Cain

[@Jeonex]

@@ceramicfish4934oh yeah I have watched a few of his recently I’ll have to check out more

[@GrumpyBeluga]

Agree. I love how he doesn't bring in personal politics into his channel too

[@nash-yz3ez]

I watched the video about that I swear that the date was off by 2 years I was listening to the video where it said the first time they recorded it to the next time the next time this time and I swear that the one that they said was supposed to happen now was 2 years early