“What About Warren Buffett?” | Rational Reminder 335

[@kirkafur3]

Could we… possibly get Buffet on the podcast?

[@rationalreminder]

I have heard him say that he does not do podcasts because if he did one he'd have to do them all. -Ben

[@gmarks1559]

As a James.....i took that personally 😂 @30:30

[@adamrumball2582]

59:32 patient discipline over time in a reasonable, affordable and suitable strategy

[@HansSchick]

Buffett had a few tail winds . In 1953 the Dow broke above the 29 cash into a bull market. Buffett owned a bank in the 70s which he parked his cash in and lent and borrowed money. He was forced to divest it c1980. That was replaced with insurance float . He had sub 10 PEs at the end of the 70s . He purchased businesses for close to liquidation . He stripped them of assets , cash and lent it back at commercial rates removing banks from the loop. His companies all insure through BH ,building an insurance business . He never sells ,so no capital gains and no dividends so has cash to lend for convertible notes . Just these things an investor can't replicate

[@prestonlui6451]

No rigorous analysis, but I think money weighted return would be close to Berkshire, as the company haven't really return capital to shareholder until 2018?

[@Martin-qb2mw]

What this episode tells me is the following: Due to scale, betting on active managers to outperform makes no sense. However, betting on yourself to outperform makes more sense because you don't have this problem.

[@rationalreminder]

Did you miss the part about Buffett having only met 10 people in his lifetime that he thought could do it successfully? -Ben

[@neodenjin]

Cliff Asness vs anyone. Make it happen

[@MegaRushman2112]

Buffett hasn't beaten the market over the last 22 years?? That's not what I'm seeing. He has beaten the s&p 500 and the total US stock market over the last 22 years and it wasn't even close. Not sure what you're looking at? You referenced a Vanguard fund but not sure which one.

[@rationalreminder]

Are you looking at price-only indexes or total returns? Here is the BRK.A total return vs. VTSAX: tinyurl.com/yck2nzkm -Ben

[@HansSchick]

Buffet gave one of his sons an advance on his inheritance of BH stock in the 70s valued at about 200,000 . He blew it all chasing a dream of Rock and Roll . Today it would be valued at about a billion

[@rationalreminder]

But did he enjoy his rock and roll lifestyle? -Ben

[@jesterz4635]

I’ll do you one better. WHY, about Warren Buffet?

[@ousefk5476]

Who is Warren Buffet?

[@Slickpete83]

*Jimmy Bufett's older brother who likes Pina Coladas and getting caught in the rain* hahaha..​@ousefk5476

[@jesterz4635]

⁠@@ousefk5476 I think he’s the guy from Fortnite.

[@HansSchick]

With that pile of cash and the market tanks tomorrow, tell me , is cash going to tank 30% . That puts an end to his under performance.

[@rationalreminder]

Holding cash hurts a lot. Buffett acknowledges this. Interestingly, I have seen some analysis suggesting that Buffett's alpha on market timing with his cash holdings is negative. x.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1861020351339143672 -Ben

[@HansSchick]

How do you buy the future? Microsoft in 2000 was the largest company in the world. It took 15 years after the Dot Com to get back to the same share price. In 2000 you could not forcast the cloud and Ai . Without them it could have ended up like Cisco the number one on alternating days with Microsoft. Until just recently Microsoft only made a market return over 25 years . Did Buffett get it wrong not buying Microsoft in 98.