What are Arjun Erigaisi's chances of making it to the Candidates via FIDE circuit?

[@1264036]

An all-Indian lineup in the next World Championship Final would be a significant event to witness.

[@user-eg1hd7gs6l]

Thats if at least half the field is Indian. Arjun pragg are only two players I can think of

[@darkdragonx650]

He said final not entire candidates

[@amitwadodkar7738]

Sagar Shah (also chess base India Team) are so proactive, and on point, its simply amazing. Also note, they manage to put up all the content of World championship, and Shorts, AND covering it live. And manages to put up Gukesh's match, even covers Vidit. Amazing. Sagar Shah is slowly becoming Legendary Figure in Indian Chess.

[@RushiShah1410]

He is already a legendary figure mann

[@NikiteshVadhani]

🎯 Key points for quick navigation: 00:13 *🧮 The FIDE circuit for Candidates qualification is nearing its conclusion, with key developments still unfolding.* 01:22 *🔄 Arjun's strategy involves replacing his lowest scores with higher ones from current tournaments, significantly boosting his total points.* 01:50 *🏆 Fabiano Caruana gained substantial points from two strong open tournaments, one of which he won outright, benefiting from an extra point for clear first.* 02:46 *💔 Fabiano's loss in St. Louis Masters caused him to finish joint first, costing him crucial circuit points.* 04:10 *🥇 Arjun must win the Qatar Masters outright to surpass Fabiano's current score of 130.4 points.* 05:20 *⚡ Upcoming World Rapid and Blitz tournaments offer significant points but are highly competitive, featuring the world's top eight players.* 06:00 *🎯 Arjun is currently joint second in Qatar Masters and must win most of his remaining games to have a chance.* 07:35 *🌍 In World Rapid, finishing third or better is critical for gaining meaningful points. Clear first is essential in Blitz for a similar impact.* 09:08 *🕵️ Nodirbek Abdusattorov's slim chance to overtake Fabiano depends on winning Qatar and World Rapid outright.* 10:18 *🔮 While Arjun’s success depends on clear first in Qatar, Fabiano remains the favorite due to his existing points buffer.* Made with HARPA AI

[@MadaraUchiha-iu3ld]

I'll reiterate this point. The 61st National Championship (Gurugram, August 17-27, 2024) was important from the perspective of both the *FIDE Circuit 2024* and the *FIDE World Cup 2025 Qualification* (with *7* qualification spots!). Why didn't the top players take part in this? National Championships are eligible for FIDE Circuit. Also, being a 50+ player tournament, the indian national championship *would also count as one of the mandatory 50+ player tournaments* for a player contending for a FIDE Circuit spot in the Candidates. To give an idea of how many circuit points one could earn if most of the top players took part, Fabiano Caruana earned 25 points for first place this year (TAR 2727.25) from the US Championships. This has made a huge difference to his circuit chance this year. And he also earned 22.68 last year (TAR 2726.75) from the US Championships. It's very concerning that such things were not taken note of much earlier this year and communicated clearly to the players. It's imperative that the chess authorities in India take note of this and work on rectifying this for next year and beyond. If there are hurdles in raising the prestige/level of the National Championship, then those hurdles must be overcome. To me, this appears as too good of an opportunity for the Indian Chess players to pass up.

[@Saransh43]

Wouldn't have been worth it since its TAR was 2562.8750. Karthik Venkataraman won the 61st National Championship and he only got 5.76 Circuit points.

[@MadaraUchiha-iu3ld]

@@Saransh43 Yep, that's why I said it would be a great opportunity if the level, prestige and rewards of the championship are raised and if most of the top Indian players took part. It would instantly raise the top 8 TAR. Instead of focusing on creating new super tournaments in India, this is a viable path.

[@Saransh43]

​@@MadaraUchiha-iu3ld Sinquefield cup was happening at the same time, and most top players prefer playing in Sinquefield Cup. Gukesh and Pragg were playing in the Sinquefield Cup. Fabi got 20.85 points for finishing 2nd and Firouzja got 28.67 points for finishing 1st in Sinquefield. Unfortunately, Arjun might not have been invited to Sinquefield Cup.

[@Saransh43]

@@MadaraUchiha-iu3ld Also, US Championship and Indian National Championship are different kinds of tournament. US Championship had the 12 highest rated players in US, whereas, Indian national championship had 341 players.

[@MaharshiRay]

@@Saransh43 TAR is calculated as the average of the top 8 players in the tournament and not the average of all the participants.

[@atulkotwal]

India should also have more open FIDE tournaments so that we can push our upcoming kids to candidates, This is what is done more many players like Ding,Fabi etc.

[@DeepakChauhanplays]

Was waiting for this one. It was needed at this moment❤

[@shashwatbajpai9888]

It's such a tough journey to qualify for candidates, and winning is even more tougher. Then some people say this is not the world championship match 😊just because they resigned or don't want to take further stress or never qualified.

[@decline1999]

Fabi did rly bad to the last game. He thought he could win to win the tournament and take the elo points. He should have been pragmatic and make a quick draw and get out of there. Now Arjun can go on top, but its very difficult to win Qatar so we will see. Either way both will be in the candidates so no much to worry about.

[@kpNov23]

Being in the candidates is not guaranteed. You missed the whole point.

[@decline1999]

@@kpNov23 umm..i know you genius. Both will eventually qualify that's my point. One way or another.

[@pratyushshukla8693]

Sagar bhai is the imposter in thumbnail 😂

[@pratik6342]

Thanks CBI team for keeping us updated on these subject!!!

[@atharvabarde1305]

Thank you prakhar

[@sreesub]

kudos to Prakhar and CBI for keeping this updated. Fingers crossed Arjun wins Qatar.

[@saturo_nipon]

someone explain to me, why US championship carried circuit points? it was not a global event like Chennai grand masters. Have to rules changed from last time?

[@harsh....8993]

National championships r exception to tht rule

[@shrikrishnasingh1106]

it was a global event...just see the lineup

[@saturo_nipon]

@@harsh....8993 Thanks, that explains it. We dont have anything similar I think

[@harsh....8993]

@@saturo_nipon we do have... But the max points u can get from tht is 5. Something cause top players don't really participate this lower avg rating

[@saturo_nipon]

@@harsh....8993 how is that possible? the TAR could be around 2720, infact India can have much stronger event, rating wise

[@DeepakChauhanplays]

If somehow arjun doesn't get a circuit spot then he just needs to chill and gain back rating points and try to reach world rank 3 ahead of hikaru and he will get the rating spot for the candidates because magnus will not play for sure...❤

[@anoukadel6397]

Thanks for this

[@c0d3rb4b4]

There's also the ratings spot, if fabi or arjun take up the circuit spot, the other has to stay above naka to grab that seat.

[@sachingupta4231]

Since Qatar is over now and Arjun is second joint position holder, how it changes the dynamics. Could we have it presented soon?

[@DylanWagner]

It all depends on the World Rapid and Blitz Championships. If I have done the math correctly: Fabi wins the Circuit if - he wins the Rapid - he comes 2nd in the Rapid and wins the Blitz - he comes top 3 in the Rapid and Arjun doesn't win the Rapid - he wins the Blitz and Arjun doesn't win the Rapid - Arjun doesn't finish in the top 2 in the Rapid - Arjun comes 2nd in the Rapid, but doesn't win the Blitz Arjun wins the Circuit if - he wins both the Rapid AND the Blitz - he wins the Rapid and Fabiano doesn't finish in the top 2 in the Rapid - he wins the Rapid and Fabiano comes 2nd, but doesn't win the Blitz - he comes 2nd in the Rapid, wins the Blitz and Fabiano doesn't finish in the top 3 in Rapid This doesn't factor in that in the Rapid the first 3 (or more) players could be tied, but honestly I couldn't be bothered 😂

[@Heyhoo3d]

Don’t think it’s possible to finish joint 1 in the world blitz given this year’s format

[@severus_snapeeee]

Thumbnail 👌 😂😂

[@rishabhmishra6473]

What about qualification through rating points

[@adityapacharne5688]

Sagar always bringing in the quality content

[@sleepingduty2987]

Can anyone tell me if the challenger to the world champion qualifies automatically in case he loses in world championships? Basically Gukesh in this case (I hope he won't lose though).

[@abhishekparulekar7652]

@@sleepingduty2987 NO he has to again qualify in the next Candidates like the other players.

[@Juuga0005-w6m]

But Gukesh will gain bonus Fide Circuit Points for 2025 if he loses, so he has a better chance to win Fide Circuit 2025 objectively. Same case goes to Ding if he lost WCC

[@santhoshs-vr3un]

No direct qualification...but championship match is also a part of circuit though...

[@sandeepshetty1589]

It used to be the case before this that the looser of WC automatically qualifies for the next candidates. But not anymore from this WC onward.

[@kA-xd9xo]

How does the fide circuit work? please tell

[@emotionalIntelligence2078]

This is the reason Indian players are not getting credit for their win..bcoz it's the technicalities that makes them "qualifier" or evaluated..this thing happened with Gukesh. Again this year, it's Gukesh @No6 vs Ding @No5.. there's no Top10 players...how can it a credible championship ? If Gukesh wins... He will have to continue winning to get the recognition. Looking at his gameplay against Ding, he is a good calculating player- once out of his prep unable to come up with natural moves...no other GM is impressed by him and still hope Ding retains his title.

[@shashwatbajpai9888]

Why does someone need to impress others? The world champion is the world champion & apart from Magnus everyone else both Ding & Gukesh have competed with & won as well. If they are so good they should have won candidates. Regarding Magnus, if he doesn't want to take the stress of WCC it's his choice but that does not mean anyone else will not be a good world champion

[@JahacMilfova]

Donchenko "Indian hero". Please 😂

[@madhavsudhindra4197]

Arjun could also qualify from rating

[@Saransh43]

Rating spot is based on the average rating from August 1st 2025 till January 1st 2026.

[@deepalnanayakkara1887]

but with fabi there is no chance

[@AshutoshDhamale]

​@@deepalnanayakkara1887But if fabi qualifies with fide points criteria, Arjun can be the 2nd highest player (if he succeeds in overtaking hikaru)

[@AnkitSingh-hb1qp]

Guys Sagar Shah is also fighting for the Candidates via FIDE Circuit. Check out the thumbnail!!!!

[@huehuehuesharma]

My question is why US championship is included in fide circuit when it's restricted to only US players isn't it unfair for Arjun and nodirbek and also he mostly plays tournaments in USA which makes I am not saying he is cheating but he can Play any tournament in the world because of his rating so why he only play tournaments in USA

[@decline1999]

Indian national tournament is also in the circuit...do you research before you talk.

[@huehuehuesharma]

​@@decline1999 why is it in the circuit is my question what I mean is national tournaments should not be included

[@wanderlust4080]

​@huehuehuesharma go complain to FIDE. There are a lot of things which the players have criticized but FIDE does what it wants.

[@santhoshs-vr3un]

They have certain criteria....If the players don't represent at least three countries, the tournament doesn't belong to the circuit. They have several other rules. Check out .

[@fgaroman6629]

What about rest participants of candidates how they qualify

[@pinkibhai1]

Are there any chances of vidit qualifying??

[@Striker-xx5cu]

He has to either place top 3 in world cup or top 2 in grand swiss. Other options are highly unlikely for him.

[@Rudra-Raut811]

Let him enjoy his newly wed life

[@pinkibhai1]

@@Striker-xx5cu yaa Rating is likely to be alireza considering arjun to qualify through 2024 circuit I guess he has 2025 circuit too

[@lonewolf5403]

My question is if gukesh/ding wins...will the other one get a chance to play candidates meanns his seat is fixed in candidates?

[@chesswithsamarth1004]

No , they don't qualify automatically for candidates but they will get 30 + points in Fide Circuit of next year's.

[@chess_guru_011]

Thumbnail 😂

[@deepaksahu6075]

When will prag play at world championship

[@_susee_6999]

What are the chances of pragg qualifying?

[@pinkibhai1]

@@_susee_6999 world cup is his type of format so he may qualify through that

[@flamencolo]

FIDE CIRCUS.

[@siddhartharoy8880]

How the 7 spot s in candidates are done. Doesn't arjun has chance in other spots. 1 spot is reserved for ding or gukesh who ever loses

[@vd.se.17]

We need organization like "Saint Louis Chess club" which can arrange enough events according to FIDE requirements, so we can at least send one or two GM to Candidate. Same way how the US is doing right now. (well, i am ignoring some of the suspicious draw games and low rated tournaments arranged to push Fabi.)

[@adilahmed3955]

Come on man. Those were genuine tournaments. Fabi is a beast. Candidates would not even feel like Candidates without Fabi. Players like him add prestige and reputation to tournaments.

[@michalnovak5837]

What low rated tournaments? If anyone was playing lower rated opponents and tournaments this year, it was Arjun (not that he could have done anything differently, since he didn"t get the invites).

[@adilahmed3955]

Criticism of FIDE Circuit is really valid. The strength and reputation of tournaments played by Fabiano is much more than what Arjun played in (except for WR Masters). But TAR is calculated only for top 8, and it makes it look like they have played in, in summation, tournaments of equal strength. And that is far from the truth.

[@santhoshs-vr3un]

😂 This is not a valid criticism. It's upon you to choose the tournaments. Arjun is literally flying countries and making the efforts. He is not playing easy tournaments at home. Doesn't fabi have sponsors? Can't he travel around the world to pick easy tournaments? That being said, I think this TAR thing is a good approach already...Can you come up with a better system? The tournament is mostly as hard as it gets even with just the top 8. He has improved fair and square...but there will always be people who will attack the system...maybe suggest a better one bro

[@sagarshaw226]

Rapid blitz ka 1st ka points to magnus kha lega 💀

[@ManishBhandari5]

so Qatar is best case scenario for Arjun

[@DarkGamer-uw4pk]

first here

[@ManiGovindRamachandran]

I don't understand how US championship qualifies for the circuit given it's all american, why can't India have a similar tournament? Edit: Apparently the is a tournament nvm

[@AzhaguGanesh-r6u]

don't cry... what is supposed to happen will happen

[@decline1999]

It has...Indian people always crying omg.

[@MadaraUchiha-iu3ld]

The Indian national championship is eligible for FIDE Circuit and also provides 7 qualification spots for the World Cup. Despite this, for some reason, the top players didn't take part in it.

[@astlinj]

first ask Indian players to participate in Indian national championship which is eligible for fide circuit point

[@adilahmed3955]

All national championships are eligible. Please read FIDE Circuit regulations. The US Chess Championship is the strongest national championship in the whole world.

[@HSUCCM]

Can he calculate RCB's winning chances? Please Prakhar bring in the good news.