What does a recession mean for expected stock returns? [Canada]

Canada might be in an economic recession, but this news should not affect your investment decisions.
Recessions do not always mean poor stock returns.
The reason is simple:
GDP growth is backward looking while stock markets are forward looking.
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[@Hoodie89NL]

Your clear and sober explanations are so valuable. Thank you

[@rui569]

Thank you for the clarity of your content.

as always, the most relevant topics, thanks.

[@stonks4days1]

Buy the dip with ETFs and chill. Most corrections don't last long like a couple months. 2022 should have taught a lot of people to DCA good ETFs and wait. Those who DCA are green although those that did a lump sum at the top in 2021 are still red plus lost to inflation. Good stuff as always Ben. Anything you're personally buying the dip on?

[@darnold1984]

Piling into the MAG7 concentrated S&P while they hold the indexes by a thread sounds like a sensible solution

[@Kchewz]

Another great deep dive, appreciate it

[@trs8696]

god i love ben. the calm soothing voice of the efficient market hypothesis

[@michaelhoward3916]

Love your shorts... thank you

[@Ali2307013]

Thank you for putting rationality into investment and spreading it in a clear way ❤

[@MatthewNIsawesome]

Thank you for your advice Ben, I will not stop dollar cost averaging into thematic etf’s and otm call options.

[@vicgill1980]

If your neighbor looses their job = recession But if you lose yours= depression

[@jmc8076]

Depends if you like your neighbour and theirs is still maybe a symptom of economic issues.

[@GeorgeSchneider8889]

Thanks 🙏

[@vincentyoung3329]

More shorts please!!! Much needed for those of us with short attention spans

[@ivanbravomunoz1305]

Hi Ben, great vid as always. How much time would you consider is "long-term" horizon? I'm in my mid twenties and I'm afraid I'll need my money in 3-4 years for the down payment of a home (rent market sucks here, very small offer and very expensive). That's the reason I've been cautious when investing in stocks. Regarding long-term investment horizon, depends on the site you search, some say is 5 years, 10 years... What's your view?

[@timemanagementisinvesting]

What about retirees who are living solely off their priorly invested portfolios? Guess it depends if the portfolios are sufficient but what sucks, either way, is selling “downed shares” due to necessity or due to required minimum distributions.

[@BenFelixCSI]

I’ll do a short video on it eventually, but the answer is in here kzbin.info/www/bejne/a16maGypgdWFi9Usi=sxT0PTBthi6Vsssx

[@timemanagementisinvesting]

@@BenFelixCSI great, I'll listen to it tomorrow at work.

[@BuyBBStonk]

Michael Burry seems to know

[@yaseral-saffar7695]

Mmm, what about yield curve inversions?

[@BenFelixCSI]

Not predictive of stock market returns, though somewhat predictive of recessions. There’s a paper on that. I’ll do a longer video.

[@jan2000nl]

Thanks Matt.

[@jan2000nl]

Ben!

[@trololobochum]

If one thinks about for a minute, then stock market crashes don't make sense in a recession. Almost never. Recessions destroy small and middle companies, while companies which stocks are traded, are big. Big fishes have better chances to survive and THEN to take over market shares of small fishes, which didn't make it.

[@michaeldegrave5905]

I think since most people’s most recent and strongest recession memory is the Global Financial Crisis, they tend to think it was a typical recession (home value crash, stock market crash, massive job losses). These things usually aren’t particularly correlated, but a lot of people think they are.

[@Messi10947]

Excellent

[@usandmexico]

If only I were omniscient, then I would have it all figured out.

[@Nerfgunninja]

I too find it highly inconvenient that I am not an oracle

[@westendgirl444]

I delude myself into thinking we've been in a recession the whole time. I DCA every month and live within my means.

[@rodrigocc_rata]

Doesn't bogle say that S&P500 has a 0,96 correlation with US GDP?

[@jmc8076]

Some say stagflation now and (long) recession 2025/6 in US. As you say hard to know. Unless very severe? Edit: Great info to know.

[@kage-fm]

DROPPING THAT FACTS HANMER LIKE CANADIAN THOR

[@zephyrsimon]

What variables should we pay attention to to change our investment decisions?

[@TheForge47]

Recession is a myth, akin to the inhalation and exhalation within a modern, dynamic monetary system, merely reflecting the natural rhythms of expansion and contraction, indispensable for the growth and rejuvenation of the economy. 😉

[@dolevmazker736]

Man I love your content

[@sudo_garrett]

sounds like another reason to DCA!

[@young_rich]

So… when are we gonna have stock crash