What Everyone Should Know About Permafrost Thaw

Hear directly from Arctic scientists about why permafrost matters and its relevance to climate negotiations. You’ll learn about what permafrost is and where is it found; carbon emissions from permafrost thaw; tipping points; the state of monitoring, measuring, and accounting for these emissions; land degradation and displacement of Arctic communities; loss and damage in the circumarctic and the impacts on Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities; and the need for co-produced resilience strategies.
Contacts: Woodwell Climate Research Center, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Alfred Wegener Institute

[@thealmightyaku-4153]

I remember talking to a climate science PhD many years ago. Even back then, he said their conferences were depressing and full of despair, because they saw all the problems, all the writing on the wall, and how nothing was being done. And it ain't gettin' any better.

[@reuireuiop0]

I'd take that with a grain of salt. Them guys must love their job, being out in the field, observing the environment, doing your measurements. I been doing research on parrots in New Zealand, and even with their numbers dwindling,n being outside among them is an excitement. As for the results- as much as they're not positive, it is a warning and may help to sort things out, even if it may take a long time. Who would ever work in a field of, like psychiatry, or curing cancers, if you'd be too sensitive to the surrounds ? And I do know what depression is, but then, other factors come into play. Field of work proper didn't have to do with it

[@cate1463]

I just found this channel. What a great source of information! Thank you!

[@martiansoon9092]

The highest cost from permafrost thaw will be via emissions. 100-1000 gigatons of CO2e emissions will ruin lives around the globe, not just arctic. Permafrost thaw may push world beyond 3C warming (we are nearing ghg levels that leads to 2C or a bit over already, but delayed by slowly warming oceans and aerosol emissions [SO2 creates cooling clouds]) (current net forcings, ie. aerosol dimming, may rise temperatures over 2,5C [Hansen et al.]).

[@martiansoon9092]

Accounting costs in a narrow area and leaving worst impact unaccounted, gives a totally wrong picture. I know, the scientists does not want to go over their specialised boundaries, but still, the global costs comes more significant when you add all impacts. Having 1C additional warming means more heatwaves, droughts, floods, sea level rise, diseases, loss of animals, forest fires, stronger hurricanes, ... That will also ensure loss of tropical coral reefs, losing arctic sea ice (that ruins the weather patterns affecting food production), most likely losing Amazon rainforest, ... We should add multiple zeroes to these local numbers... And some harm cannot be even calculated, because it causes ever lasting effects like extinctions. Also roughly every 0,1C warming kills 100 million people. (aka. 1000 tons of carbon in the air kills a person.)

[@martiansoon9092]

It is also known that at 2C sea level will rise 10-20 meters. (WMO/IPCC) A recent State of the Arctic - study says this 12-20 meters sea level rise @2C will happen before 2300. Also noting that this includes losing almost all Greenland ice sheet, but yet still major impact will come from western Antarctic melting. With losing gravitation grip of surrounding seas, the sea level will rise more on northern hemisphere. I estimate that it will be something like 20-40 meters of sea level rise (needs better calculations). IPCC says also that 0,5-1,0C warming, that has already happened, will rise sea level by 6-9 meters. This has been found via palaeohistoric references. Timeline for this is yet unknown.

[@martiansoon9092]

Losing almost all coastline cities and many inland cities, will have huge costs.

[@juguez1]

@Martian, that sounds to me as of hundreds of millions, rich and mostly poor ones, of displaced humans , animals, insects and the flora will act accordinly with no regards.

[@geoffkong7076]

The last interglacial period when the permafrost melted the globe was 4.3deg warmer than now . We're in an interglacial period .

[@fr57ujf]

This is sort of like conducting an evaluation of a very sick patient with all the passion of a post-mortem.

[@simuliid]

So few people have viewed this. Wonder if we're gonna "fix" this?😂

[@a.randomjack6661]

It can't be fixed. 93,4% of the warming goes into the ocean. The troposphere, the thin layer of the atmosphere we happen to live in, holds only 2,3% of the "global warming" which translates as "climate change", so it seems less worrying. Also, ocean acidification (the evil twin of climate change) with it's threat to the basis of the food chain, aka phytoplankton and zooplankton. Of course, there's many more threats from that ocean warming, like stratification which impairs vertical nutrients circulation, especially bottom t top.

[@gogrape9716]

I realized when I first heard about the thawing of the permafrost is that its all over but the finger pointing...

[@dalewolver8739]

1.5 and 2.0 are impossible. Don't know why you people "don't get it" and keep talking like its possible or that humans are EVER going to change.

[@Rnankn]

Of course, it is physically possible to change. And that is what rational people would do, in the interest of self-preservation and a moral imperative for others. No it is not socially feasible, or politically likely, since it conflicts with economic models, and coordination dilemma suggest a race to the bottom. But if we’re not rational and cannot abide empirical climate models, then what legitimacy does civilization have? Government no longer performs its primary function, safety. And what legitimacy do economic models have left? They’re ideologically determined and serve only the wealthy, the clear minority - can they maintain their position through force alone? If you ‘get it’ then change is the only historical certainty, and to suggest the status quo will endure is either naive, or it is to pronounce the end of human civilization - which is still premature. Though, i do agree, this liminal moment is unbearable and disorienting.

[@a.randomjack6661]

In our society, we have made the people with the worse antisocial behaviors (narcissism/psychopathy/sociopathy) our leaders of the "economy". They care only about profits and profitability. They see global warming as a crisis from which they will increase their profits, be it from arising conflicts, geoengineering and reconstruction. Food getting scarce, no worries, we'll increase it's price. More profits is made from selling something 100$ instead of 10$. Politics won,t save us: “Our politicians are interchangeable figureheads on the pirate ships of the Corporatocracy Empire”

[@karloschambers661]

Who's the young lady that introduces them all? ? ?

[@vtfollett]

Don’t know who she is, but she did the most upbeat introduction to a doomsday analysis I’ve ever seen. From her animated persona, I was expecting good news. But strangely, I was happy to hear it.

[@edbail4399]

[@geoffkong7076]

Reality , we're just going back in time Pre Permafrost and a global state at that time , now relate that to what you are telling us that the Permafrost releases an intolerable amount of Co2 than the earth is returning to that state in time of Co2 levels . Now it is known that the Permafrost thaws during interglacial periods , we happen to be in one now !!!

[@doughamblett5204]

We don't know if this extent of de-frosting is unprecedented [within, say, 1,000,000 years] or not. Sure there have been major defrostings about every 100,000 years, but we aren't sure of the extent. Some more research on this question should be done.

[@geoffkong7076]

This has NEVER happened before ??? So how, when , did the permafrost get there , wasn't it there before being frozen as an earth cycle ?? Facts Overlooked

[@pblakez]

of course it happened before but humans were not around to be affected, one of the biggest problems today is the inability to understand time

[@geoffkong7076]

@@pblakez the permafrost becomes exposed during interglacial periods when the globe is warmer , we are in an interglacial period now bit still a long way from the last 4.3deg warmer than the last period , maybe we've got a way to go yet ! Humans have been through a number of interglacial periods /ice ages.

[@HealingLifeKwikly]

@@geoffkong7076 "Humans have been through a number of interglacial periods /ice ages." We've never been through a world shaped by CO2 levels this high--which is the highest they have been in 14 million years.

[@richardtheweaver4891]

Hi. You sure like semantics. Actually, this is not an interglacial, but an ice age termination event combined with the planet’s sixth mass extinction. It seems that your stance is that since things have gotten horrendous for life before, we should deliberately make things worse than they’ve ever been, preferably so hot that big-brained species like humans overheat and either die off or devolve into something quite stupid, such as somebody who cherishes semantics over reality.

[@TCRgalaxy]

Human population overshoot does have its consequences after all… 🔥🪦🌎🪦🔥

[@EnvironmentalCoffeehouse]

Yes It does

[@guidobolke5618]

No, this is not the result of a population overshoot. It's the result of the opposite. Most carbon emissions are from declining populations. The members of these population can and do consume arbitrary amounts of resources. That's a a systemic difference to the usual population overshoot models.

[@a.randomjack6661]

If the poorer half of the global population wasn't there, we'd still have the same exact problems. Please get your head out of your comfy bellybutton.