What is Holt Winters Method? - Time Series Forecasting

Known for its effectiveness in dealing with seasonality, the Holt-Winters method is a cornerstone of exponential smoothing techniques. This tutorial covers everything from the basics of 'What is Holt-Winters Method?' to its practical applications in Python for forecasting.
📝 Blog about Holt Winters Model: medium.com/towards-data-scien...
🐍 Python notebook from video: github.com/egorhowell/KZbin...
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:30 What is the Holt Winters' model
1:40 Holt Winters' theory
6:20 Holt Winters' in Python
9:45 Summary
10:14 Outro
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This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered as professional advice. Views and opinions are my own and do not represent or reflect the opinions of my current or past employer or any organisations I am associated with. This description also contains affiliate links from which I may receive a small commission from.

[@rajeshboyina7925]

hey can you please include what is mathmatical calculation for y cap of known data

[@egorhowell]

I dont understand, y_cap is the the forecasted value, its not known data

[@nicolasflorian3179]

nice vid bro

[@egorhowell]

Thanks!

[@PS-en4yz]

Once you feel confident about Holt's Winter values and its overlap with test --- how can you use it further to make a future forecast ?

[@egorhowell]

Hey I don't understand the question, the test set is an example of using the model for future forecasts?

[@user-xe6ul2je1d]

Hey Egor, is there any advantage in using ETS model over an Holt Winters Model? From what I understood the ETS is just a simpler version of the Holt Winters, is that correct? Thanks for the content!

[@egorhowell]

Holt Winters is a form of ETS. ETS is basically exponential smoothing and Holt Winters is referred to as triple exponential smoothing with level, trend and seasonality. Hope that makes sense!