What is the Prophet Model

In 2018, Facebook released its time series algorithm - prophet. But what is the prophet algorithm? Let's find out... in under 5 minutes!

[@baharl2981]

wow, you can't begin to understand how easy you explained everything I needed to know THANK YOU !

[@alisavictory2969]

Great and concise! Very engaging especially with the witty titles! Thank you for sharing :)

[@MyMy-tv7fd]

strangely good, I wish all model explanations were like this

[@zedor1553]

strangely good, i feel you

[@EngineeringChampion]

Aric, I've watched all your videos in this series. I love the fact that you talk fast and move on. You give a chance to my brain to think about another chess game. Thank you!

[@alexei.domorev]

Brilliant and concise explanation! Aric, please keep them coming. ;)

[@rokaskarabevicius]

Excellent videos, can't wait for more.

[@josephtolentino1900]

Short but concise 😊

[@pipertripp]

I like the Fourier series idea. That is clever.

[@jacobmoore8734]

Fourier: "for" - "ee" - "ay"

[@pipertripp]

Not to be confused with Furries, which is a completely different beast.

[@anoriginalnick]

It sounds like a fancy wrapper over Python's time series decomposition with structural breaks embdedded. It does feel very overfit. Any thoughts on in this ?

[@happyoblap]

Holy fuck...what an amazing video

[@user-qr8uy3gg1w]

so is it possible to read out the algebraic form of the fitted linear model out explicitly?:) If not, is there another approach where this is possible?

[@AricLaBarr]

It definitely is possible! The more complicated the model (more knots, more fourier terms, more holidays) the more complicated the equation is. y = beta0 + TREND + FOURIER + HOLIDAY TREND = piecewise linear regression on trend. That could be a simple as beta1*time (no knots) or more complicated with knots FOURIER = beta term multiplied by each of the fourier terms described in the video HOLIDAY = beta term multiplied by dummy variable where it is a 1 for the holiday and 0 otherwise

[@wesamalsohle5384]

could you give me the link for your presentation please, thanks for your time.

[@AricLaBarr]

Sorry, but there is no link for the presentation!

[@hogrideeeeer]

Hi Aric, could you make a video on VAR modelling?

[@AricLaBarr]

That is definitely on the upcoming list!

[@levi2732]

whait we use trigonometry in inferential statistics? that's awesome

[@reyes09071962]

Four-YAE

[@hahahNo197]

Lesseon algoritma prophet

[@diysumit]

111th viewer