When NOT to Bluff - GTO Wizard Analysis ($20kNL Nacho124441 vs MunEZ_StaRR)

FLY, YOU FOOLS... to the play button, and give it a smack!
This week, Uri switches gears and puts aside PioSOLVER for the popular tool GTO Wizard. Then it's a simple spell - eye of Newt, some blood of a virgin goat, and a little bit of node-locking gives us teh mystical visions of the ins and outs of a $20kNL hand between high-stakes crushers MunEZ_StaRR and Nacho124441. As always, Uri expertly gleans from it an important lesson for us to mull: sometimes winning means knowing when to let things go.
Two Plus Two March High-Stakes Thread: forumserver.tw...
Hand: forumserver.tw...
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[@kvnd7331]

You missed something big also which is why T9, JT, etc always bluff. I've studied this node myself. The way the b-xc-x node works as 3bp oop pfr, is the 3bp oop pfr always overfolds compared to MDF if the in position jams river on a low runout like this, so the in position player always bluffs without showdown value (being massively +EV typically on the order of several big blinds), unless the blockers are very bad. Often the K highs have sdv because OOP will xc some double overcard fd that are like QJ or whatever. The trick to not overbluffing river is to be balanced with your frequencies on turn such that you can bluff all of them on river to be balanced with pairs that will want to bet

[@kvnd7331]

You made some big errors in the solver in this video: 1. When you added the half pot size at 8:15, you forgot to get rid of the small size. You interpret the following output as if its half pot only, but only 5.9% of the range is using half pot as a pretty gutted range and all the rest of the hands are still going quarter pot as before. You then interpret it as being able to just half pot all the same hands, which isn't the case. You interpret the river output with only this gutted range, notice how all the low pairs are no longer in there? Only 99+? That is because none of them used the half pot size. 2. At 9:49 you are looking at the in position players range, but you think it is the out of position players range, and give analysis based on the range you think it is, so obv totally wrong.

[@Jacobson-dp7gg]

As I was searching for your weekly video it autocorrected to “gorilla porn”. After watching some of that now this poker strategy feels underwhelming 😭 😭

[@yongdaliu7734]

the fck

[@ImDrizzt]

first hand, dont u think, the oop guy fires turn with overpairs, if he did elect to bet them half pot on that flop? The flop bet kinda seemed to target better broadways than he has, so the check doesnt seem like overpockets tbh, mb i fucked up, i tried putting hand in solver, it wanted the ip to b33 on turn, then jam bluff river, but im a bit of a noob

[@gustavomoraes2426]

I did not like this video, you looked so confused while at wizard. Also at 9:54 you are saying OOP check call T9 spades, but you are looking at the reaction vs donk small from OOP, not the reaction vs IP shove

[@ck7603]

I think you’re missing the forest for the trees here Uri. When OOP is this polar then checks they’re so weak in comparison to your filtered range that OOP over folds relative to MDF on all rivers.

[@antonsergheiciuc4666]

It's still not clear to me why Nacho gave up with the T9. I get the point that he doesnt want to overbluff, but T9 seems a premium bluff combo. It's literally your nut low, and it shares cards with your 99 and TT, a concept im sure Nacho knows. So why did he intentionally give up with T9? Exploitative reasons?

[@Mwuesse]

Could be many reasons. Even the best players make mistakes is one. Solver is wanting to check KJ for SD value but yuri mentioned it probably doesn't so maybe instead he just randomised like a 0-100 and hit a 5 to say he should give up with this hand. Maybe it was exploitative/gameflow reasons too - maybe he had been bluffing more frequently and opponent was playing trickier and having more hands that can x/call river here than in theory. Obv he would still want to bluff mostly with this but maybe that meant he randomised to 30 in the moment so he gives up more often.

[@TheGamer713]

I would love to see some low stakes videos!

[@z_whitte]

Hello Uri! would love to see a challenge where u play rush and cash but post flop your only allowed bet sizing is the geometric 3e, 2e, 1e etc. Think that would be interesting to watch :)

[@Proactionguy]

heard u played a bit of HU with stefan at 1knl, gonna do a vid abt it?

[@MIZRg2G7HA]

when did he play?