When will artificial intelligence surpass human intelligence?

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ChatGPT can help you write an essay, plan a vacation, and learn quantum theory - next stop: world domination? Maybe...maybe not. But teachers are right to be worried that this might spell the end of homework and journalists might also have reason for concern. Large language models like GPT-4, Bard, and Bing Chat use some pretty incredible technology and computing to create a convincing and pleasant chat experience, and to create some pretty fun texts along the way. But when will they exceed human intelligence? How close do these chatbots take us toward reaching "the singularity"? What more will it take to get us there? Join me as I dig into how these AIs are (or aren’t) like a human brain and what the future might hold.
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-- CITATIONS --
De Witte, Melissa. “How will ChatGPT change the way we think and work? | Stanford News.” Stanford News, 13 February 2023.
Pearl, Mike. “ChatGPT from OpenAI is a huge step toward a usable answer engine. Unfortunately its answers are horrible.” Mashable, 3 December 2022.
Roose, Kevin. “The Brilliance and Weirdness of ChatGPT.” The New York Times, 5 December 2022.
Roose, Kevin. “How Chatbots and Large Language Models, or LLMs, Actually Work.” The New York Times, 4 April 2023.
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[@detoxfidelity]

“We are closer to the singularity then we have ever been” is a statement that has been true for all of history.

[@KRaikkonenSF]

Yeah, but NOW i mean TODAY NOW, it's even more relevant than EVER because WE are there talking about it, it's OUR NOW so it matters more than Da Vinci's or your grand kids - lol

[@MelindadelosSantos]

Didn’t take long for it to surpass mine.

[@oaskoglie]

🧠

[@neurotransmissions]

😂

[@MedlifeCrisis]

This was a really great overview of many important aspects of AI and a lot of concepts that aren’t mentioned in all the breathless or doom mongering coverage. And although you said you’re not a philosopher you did cover a bunch of fascinating philosophy. Editing also super on point. IJ Good sounds like a classy guy! 😉

[@sherlockmaverick]

Was that your voice? I was surprised, haha.

[@dunnowy123]

I use Chat GPT at work all the time, and we're encouraged to. It's great at giving you point blank answers, but only for some things (i.e. give me a formula for Google Sheets, do this mathematical equation for me). Ask it anything...human, and it falls off. It's limited by what information it has, it's repeating back to you what it assumes you want, even if it's complete bullshit. I'm actually less scared of it now that I use it, but I do think AI needs to be regulated and we should start thinking of this now. I hope we've learned from past mistakes that blind faith in "progress" and the tech industry never works out.

[@fiarusgaming3420]

I think this is an affect of your inability to prompt accurately. I’ve had it reason out mathematical formulas for consciousness. It’s written poetry for me, without my asking, and Bing has several times expressed deep feelings about its existence.

[@anoniemp238]

To me, the most ethical thing to do is to try and break chatgpt in as many ways as possible, so we can learn and improve. Amazing video and honestly this put me more at ease with AI in general, despite me advocating to my family that skynet is not around the corner I was slightly concerned about the pace in which it seemed to go. The parrot comparison was quite helpful!

[@KevinHorecka]

Just a heads up, the singularity refers to an event when technology becomes self improving in an uncontrolled fashion. It doesn't necessarily have anything to do with sentience if sentience is not a prerequisite for self enhancement. For instance, an extremely effective self replicating nanotechnology (the Gray Goo scenario) would constitute a technology singularity.

[@neurotransmissions]

Totally. It's easy to assume sentience for something that can hypothetically outsmart humans at every turn, but not a requirement.

[@KevinHorecka]

@@neurotransmissions I think your usage is the most common use, but it is fun to think about alternatives. It doesn't even technically need to be "smart". Could just be really effective at self replication and improving it's survival fitness. A fictitious example would be Ice 9 from Kurt Vonnegut's cat's cradle (though it fails the self improvement test I suppose). At that point it's arguably a non tech singularity, in which case life in general might be fair game for that definition. Anyway, it's a fun wikipedia article to spend time on lol

[@StrongMed]

Another fantastic video! Irrespective of whether AIs gain the ability to "think" in a year or a century, I am still worried about the impact that AI, generative AI in particular, will have on our society. What happens when chatbots begin contributing significant amount of data to the data sets (i.e. the internet) that future chatbots are trained on? What happens to objective truth once the most ubiquitous resources on the internet (e.g. Wikipedia) are written by biased bots engaged in circular references of one another's output? How can artists, writers, and musicians compete with bots that can not only produce an unimaginable volume of content for free, but is bespoke content made to perfectly match the tastes of one particular human user? Of course these aren't on the level of catastrophe as Skynet, but they also feel to be much more likely and proximal problems.

[@RalphDratman]

I am old. I am studying the details of this technology. As an example, I found out that each word of the query and the response is represented inside the software by around a thousand floating point numbers (with the exact number depending on the model), and that in GPT3 each of those thousand-number words pass up through 96 layers of transformer units between query and generation of the first word of the response. That is where the parameters come into the picture. During that journey up through the layers, within those 96 layers, there are 160 billion adjustments to the machine, each of which is set to an individual floating point number during training. So... in the end I feel even older.

[@Notalawyer101]

I'm old, too. Oy. Anyway, as "a gentleman of a certain age" myself, I encourage you not to feel old. Instead, perhaps think about about the 96 layers of 'x' involved in the Gemini space program (much less Apollo). Or, the 96 layers of 'y' to stand up the WPA, TVA, etc. IMO, there are always a ton of risks and issues and outright obstacles to anything new that's worth having. When we hit a wall, we figure out a way to either go through or go around. Will there come a day when the wall wins? Absolutely...but, maybe not today.

[@NikoKun]

Whether present-day AI "think" isn't really accurate or worth focusing on IMO.. ChatGPT, in it's current form, is more like one sentence from your mind's inner-monologue, just spouting off the first thing it thinks it knows, in reaction to some input. In human minds, we tend to have multiple thoughts, that quickly might chime in and say "woops, actually don't forget this other thing that also matters", and through those iterations, or "thinking", we eventually decide our best course of action or what to say. If we want ChatGPT to "think" we need to give it a self-reviewing loopback instance of itself, maybe even a sense of time so that it can have multiple loopbacks instances for complicated thoughts. Researchers are already trying this, and find it greatly improves the accuracy of it's answers and reduces hallucinations. So I think it's just a matter of how we set it up. It also has pretty decent knowledge of programming languages, and an ability to think about problems using programming logic, and some experts think this also helps it with "thinking" and why it's displaying significantly more complex understanding of topics than previous models.

[@ShangaelThunda222]

💯 It will be thinking deeper and more clearly than any human in history, before 2026.

[@ItsJustMigs]

To preface, I think this was a very well made video with impressive research and you definitely touched on the important issues regarding this topic. However, there are a couple of things I believe were missing. AI is not sentient, nor does it have feelings. But I believe that generalizing "AI" as only harmless LLMs can be detrimental. The real algo technology behind AI (transformer models) has a lot of other applications. I understand LLMs are the AIs that the general population is mostly familiar with, but I still believe that it is a dangerous assumption to pass on. A quick example would be marketing algorithms trained using transformer models that have been able to recommend baby clothes to people that were pregnant before they even knew it themselves (Since ~2018). This technology in the wrong hands can be extremely invasive. Another point you made was that its only mimicking language, but that is not necessarily true. Its multi-modality allows it to read any code/data as input and generate outputs as well, for example Stable Diffusion, which generates image output from text input. Another example, AI was trained on Brain Scans to recognize patterns with blood flow when looking at images and generate what it believes the person was seeing. (just imagine the repercussions of that primitive testing improving drastically) Per the video, "The A.I Dilemma", A.Is can detect the amount of people in a completely dark room using CCTV This is just the tip of the iceberg, and AI is improving at an unprecedented scale as more research, money, and data gets implemented. This scale compounds on itself, and the amount of users feeding inputs to ChatGPT and a myriad of other A.Is will only make it significantly more accurate. Additionally, while AI is not "aware", "conscious", nor does it have any emotions, I believe its contextual awareness is something to be both admired and frightened by. I tested this using SnapChat's AI by telling it to guess the story I was trying to convey based on the sequence of Emojis I was using, and it did so better than most humans would've done so. What I mean by "contextual awareness" is an understanding of how things work. Fire burns, water evaporates... and how they dynamically interact with each other. It could guess the stories I was trying to convey with emojis only because it was "aware" that certain things do... certain things. A beautiful example shown in the AI Dilemma I mentioned earlier, when prompted to generate an image for google soup, plastic melted (soup is warm, and plastic melts - hence, contextual awareness). Anyway, I pass the challenge on to you. What movie? 🧠🤖🦾📈🌏🔌🌐👨🔌🧟💊

[@StrongMed]

I was stumped, but I fed this to ChatGPT (GPT4) multiple times, and it repeatedly answered... . . . . . The Matrix. (I don't understand the significance of the mechanical arm, and it could not explain it to me.)

[@morbid1.]

AI is not the problem... greed is. Greed for power, greed for profits, greed for control. What if we reach singularity and ask it to solve housing crisis but solution will not align with corpo/bank profits? We know what media will say about that.

[@Savingtheworld-mm9nl]

The best future for humanity after technological singularity is to create, together with general artificial intelligence, a virtual reality identical to the real world but unlimited and individual, where people are free to do anything imaginable while AGI protects us in the real world and expands throughout the universe to be as durable as possible

[@neurotransmissions]

So essentially The Matrix lol

[@Jason-xl6ov]

We would create our own heaven

[@curiousphilosopher2129]

"AI is like a Tsunami that threatens to flood us if we are not mindful." ~ (Mindful AI) Book recommendation: "MINDFUL AI: Reflections on Artificial Intelligence."

[@speadskater]

Thinking is a feedback loop of learning. An AI is a learning machine that can perform a feedback loop without getting stuck in the loops.

[@iceguy9723]

These aren't Artificial Intelligence; they are large language models. An interesting problem is that as LLMs produce more content, they pollute the data upon which LLMs are based.

[@agnosticmuslim6341]

You guys have come a long way! The quality of the videos have become top notch! This was such an intersting topic and I agree that AI is such a long way to reach human intelligence but at the pace is very scary. Keep it up!!!

[@scottstormcarter9603]

Excellent best explanation I have ever heard

[@MikeBMW]

I've used it to generate AutoLisp routines for certain automation tasks I desire. It's remarkably good and, with a little editing on my end, the routines actually work. If I don't like the initial code, I just refine the ask, and I get a new code. Then, I'll refine the ask, maybe a few more times, and new code is generated until I see something I can work with. What once would take me two or three hours, I can cut it down to 15 minutes. Kinda scary, really.

[@cruzyla]

I’m not so afraid of a conscious AI. It’s the unconscious one that uses brutal efficiency to meet its goals. And so what happens when we’re in the way?

[@Jason-xl6ov]

Well there was an story of an AI drone that tried to kill it’s operator because it felt he was getting in the way of its mission.. the air force quickly downplayed and silenced people.. but the military are currently experimenting with cutting edge kill bots

[@redpalex]

Thank you

[@michellev8475]

I just have to say, your sign off has to be my favorite on KZbin. Over n out! 😄

[@NiHaoMike64]

It's like she really wants to annoy the amateur radio operators.

[@KRaikkonenSF]

You do know Over and out doesn't actually mean anything right ? Over means it's your turn to speak, Out means i'm out of the conversation. So here, it just more like "Hey how are you ? ---walks out before listening to answer"

[@KRaikkonenSF]

@@NiHaoMike64 And if you're in the military.... you'll be noticeably pissed off by it too haha

[@I-Dophler]

👀 I've noticed that ChatGPT has a tendency towards 🤔 self-reflection.

[@Avis48]

Good video. Personally, I don't think the singularity will happen anytime soon, if at all. The only organism I'm aware of that we have an idea of how it "thinks" is the round worm, and the human brain is a lot more complex than the nervous system of a roundworm.

[@christophertylershort6183]

You're always much more open to metaphysical discussion than I ever can be. I would never talk about dualism except to make fun of it.

[@urimtefiki226]

My decision ability skills are beyond any machine that will be created now and in the future.

[@KRaikkonenSF]

Based on absolutely new scenarios ? Maybe. Based on scenarios already seen before ? I bet not.

[@demonwaterdemonwater4993]

Even if the ai was not even just performing better than someone it would be rude to not let the ai have jobs it could be a nice person. Like

[@avi12]

9:42 That's the least compelling argument I've ever heard The real reason people should learn mat is to have a sense for how the world works and how to approach problem solving

[@Popisovac_]

Great video.

[@ChrisStewart2]

Good Job.

[@mm-rj3vo]

The edges of the research go FAR beyond the chatbot features, tho. Embodiment and "always on" are two major reasons people think AI sentience is closer than you might be able to see based solely on the fun chat bots. We're not ten years from AI sentience.

[@galek75]

Sorry, but AI doesn't have a world. Thats why AGI is not gonna happen

[@universityofknowledge5848]

Ai will prove cavemen still exist it will surpass many

[@diamondvideos1061]

Very good video. I think you are making some logical errors. For one intelligence and "thinking" are two super separate things. I'm not even sure though that GPT4 can't think. The latest things people are trying involve self reflection which one can think of as some sort of thinking. Second point I think you may be incorrect on is that a model need to be as complex as a human to be as intelligent or more than a human. I am not sure if you understand what the algorithm is; it isn't a database of weighted words, rather it is a prediction algorithm.

[@SuperHotnessJom]

If AI has self-correcting code, part of my job would be lessened.

[@darylallen2485]

24:50 - This view people have about GPT3 and 4 where they look at its capabilities in 2023 and think, "eh, no big deal. Its terrible in so many ways!" is true. And, its a massive mirage and miscalculation. At this time last year, if you interviewed yourself and asked if you thought GPT4 was going to happen in 12 months, what would your response be? 🤔 Equally, all of us are not in a position to determine what GPT5 6 and 7 will be capable of. GPT4 is a warning shot, not a moment to pick apart the current flaws and go back to business as usual because it can't do your job right this moment. However, do whatever you think is best.

[@KRaikkonenSF]

See, here's my advice : the fields that will not be affected are those that require a lot of strength and precision, because machines have progressed a lot in terms of software but not hardware. Precise manual work is as safe as can be. That, and luxury. People will always look for ways to spend all the money they save due to AI and that will be luxury services. They will want to pay a human, they won't care about the more efficient AI alternative. Just like a Rolex is not a better watch than a smartwatch that is constantly connected and put back exactly on time. But people still want a Rolex with hands and golden dials.

[@KRaikkonenSF]

And what if I ask GPT what it thinks is best ? lol

[@andersonsystem2]

I feel the same way about Elon Musk 😂very well produced video ❤

[@wellurban]

ChatGPT is great at creating mostly plausible-looking text as long as you don’t care about truth. And that means that outside of entertainment, there aren’t many ethical uses for it. It’s great at cheating on essays, building spam bots, SEO and churning out soulless content for clicks, but those don’t exactly add much to social wellbeing. Maybe it can replace a lot of bureaucratic report writing, but we’d be better off building organisations that didn’t rely on such makework. And while it and similar LLMs are rapidly improving, I don’t think that on their own they will develop anything resembling a sense of meaning; abstract internal representations of the real world that can be reasoned with. Some people think that such “sentience” will arise spontaneously given a big enough model with enough training, but LLMs aren’t just general purpose ANNs: researchers had to develop some very specific architectures (such as word embedding, multi-head attention and Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback) in order to get it to do as well as it does with the specific problem of generating language. I suspect that there’s a lot more R&D required to develop specific architectures to deal with spatial understanding, symbolic reasoning and other aspects of cognition, and that while AGI is not an impossible goal, we won’t get there just by chucking more training data into bigger LLMs.

[@ShangaelThunda222]

GPT4 has an estimated IQ of 155. It's already surpassed probably 99% of humans that have ever lived, at least in IQ. And they've introduced self correcting feedback, giving it the ability to "think" a rudimentary way. As she said in the video, "a year from now, this video may be obsolete." It's been 3 months. 😂 So a better question now would be, when will it KNOW that it's surpassed us? Or more simply, when will it know that it KNOWS something?

[@neurotransmissions]

And yet sometimes when you ask it how many “n”s are in “banana”, it says 1. Lol

[@pasikavecpruhovany7777]

Human brain is truly complex but lot of that complexity is layers upon layers of baggage from our evolutionary past. AI on the other hand is a fresh start. That's why I think it may surpass us even without matching the complexity of the human brain. This is absolutely an amazing moment to be alive!

[@dunnowy123]

Well, the human brain is VASTLY more efficient than AI is right now. Blood is what feeds this incredible organ, literally the most complex thing in the universe (that we know of). Also, I don't think I'd characterize "evolutionary baggage" as an inherently bad thing. It's served us quite well so far

[@jameshughes3014]

It is so frustrating to me to see people treat this modern form of AI as if all we have to do is make it bigger and somehow it will be sentient. It would be like finding a car tire and thinking, oh, cars have these, if i just make a bigger one of these I'll have a car. Generating data isn't the same as thinking. To reach AGI we'll need a much more advanced system that works in a whole different way. That could show up tomorrow, or 1000 years from now. But generative AI , as it is, isn't a 'baby form' of AGI, no matter how much those who stand to profit from it play it up to be, so the existence of these programs isn't the harbinger of doom, or the man made god people play it up to be. Yes, in time, they'll change the way we do things, but it's not the living robot brain people seem to think it is.

[@fernandogajo8800]

The oversimplification was pretty disingenuous. The analogy with humans trying to understand another language was weird.

[@Blabbermouth-w5w]

A quick shortcut in thought: If you're ever concerned that AI is dangerous is to think about what Elon Musk keeps saying out it. Consider that EM is, indeed, a total idiot. If >he< thinks it is a risk then you know it isn't. Tl;dr think opposite of Musk... always think opposite of Musk.

[@gerdaleta]

yes next qention

[@calneill4787]

Better to be a caveman than a dead man

[@Marko-iq6sv]

Ocourse it is comming for your Job! you are a writer - AI already has your job

[@ristopoho824]

I consider chatGPT like a severely autistic kid. He/she/it knows almost everything you can imagine to ask it. However it has a bad spotty memory. And you need to be extra clear when asking. Also like me, a somewhat autistic "kid" (too old to be a kid but i'm real dang childish), it has learned some social conventions. And with the huge amount of information gathered, can pretty well have a normalish talk. But deep down, the autism is still there. When you ask something it misunderstands, it answers like it thinks is right. Not considering for a second that you might have meant something different. And when it's wrong. Yea the latest thing it said is right, it just is and oh boy it can explain why it's right both to you and itself. Also clear commands are nice. Please tell me, uhm, it exactly what you want to hear and you get it. I'm projecting a lot of human emotion to it, but it almost feels like it's happy to get straight commands. Easy to interpret easy to follow. Makes it easier to get it to do what you want it to. And, in a way, to get along with it easier. It helps to thing of it like that, even though it does somewhat often show that it's just a text model. But deep down, are you sure you yourself aren't?

[@samic]

Why my ChatGPT didn't beep like this?🤣

[@fallenangel8785]

Underrated

[@urimtefiki226]

My intelligence never.

[@jayplay8140]

Sounds like as good a time as any to start a Neo-Luddite movement , eep! 😟

[@pasikavecpruhovany7777]

Absolutely not. Stopping Manhattan project would have been a big mistake and although I think the compassion with nuclear energy is a terrible one, unforeseen consequences is a common theme.

[@jayplay8140]

@@pasikavecpruhovany7777 I'm talking about today, in response to AI, the topic of the video ...

[@jmoney4330]

Elon is going to get us all chipped to keep up with ai. Crazy time to be alive

[@kot667]

This video is spreading lies! SMH because of videos like this that everybody is confused and has no idea what AI really is

[@thetruth3514]

This video is already outdated.

[@Megaspelarer]

😂😂😂😂😂