Where do ACC teams land if it implodes? Can GT, Wake, Pitt, BC find a spot after UNC, Miami land?

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[@txmagyar32]

Well, one small thing that Hass to be considered. The big money, the alumni, the presidents, the students, everyone at UNC and Duke they won’t except any kind of deal that doesn’t preserve the two games a year between them. I see two possible solutions 1. Duke joins the SEC/B10 as a basketball only school 2. UNC and Duke, regardless of the conference they’re in scheduled their two games a year out of conference in the spring. There is literally zero chance in which the SEC or B10 is going to give Duke a share of football television revenue. Duke football does absolutely nothing to enhance the brand of the SEC or B10. There’s around 7 million people that live in South Florida. The SEC and B 10 are both going to fight hard to get Miami into their conference because that is going to spike their television revenue and next contract. And I absolutely believe that once Miami gets into the SEC or B1 they will then have the financial will to build an on-campus stadium at that point. and fix their attendance problems and bring a good environment back to that school for their games.

[@jmevans9]

Duke has better football revenue than GT. That's thoroughly depressing.

[@rayeremia6058]

Great content, sir.

[@ChrisJones-jn5rb]

Good video. Big 12 fan here (WVU), and I could see GT being an easy get for our conference. The pros outweigh the cons. Atlanta market, right in the middle of SEC territory, and would help fill the gap in Big 12 landscape. Add VT, Louisville, and NC State and that would be a win.

[@atlantisource]

Re: ath dept spending vs research/academia spending BC has a top tier hockey program that they’ve spent huge dollars on in recent years.

[@Jon.A.Scholt]

As a Michigan fan, alum and native Ann Arborite, I always wished Pitt was in the Big Ten. They're a cultural fit, great academic institution, Pittsburgh is an awesome city (my sister lived downtown there for 4 years and I was surprised how nice the city was when I visited). I just wish they had an on campus stadium; which, is also a massive hindrance (the biggest world n fact) for Miami. But Penn State has always acted like, "Errrr, we don't want another Pennsylvania school in the Big Ten, errrrr! We're throwing a temper tantrum!" Were I in charge of distributing these teams I'd want FSU and Miami to lockdown Florida. I'd want either a combo of UNC and NC State or UVA and Va Tech. The Big Ten can't concede both states to the SEC. Then if 4 teams wasn't the limit, I'd want Ga Tech and Pitt. Or maybe Duke if we had UNC and NC State. I have a feeling UVA and Va Tech will end up in the Big Ten since Virginia is contiguous with Maryland and are this natural rivals. A Rutgers, Penn State, Maryland, UVA and Va Tech "Mid Atlantic Pod" makes a ton of sense.

[@Mark_Cadden]

As a Pitt fan I completely agree with you on all counts

[@notoriouseagle1074]

Boston College brings you the viewership, don't take my word for it, look at the Super Bowl and Stanley Cup ratings when the teams are in.

[@stevenjenson]

Probably all of their games with over 4 million viewers was probably uga vs ga tech

[@nick21614]

Stanford has a small chance to join the Big Ten if they want to take them and then tell ND if they don't join as well, they won't be able to play conference members and that would destroy ND as all their rivals would be in the Big Ten. But Big Ten could probably do that already with the current teams they have.

[@ebransc09]

The way things are trending, Tech, VA Tech & Syracuse to the mountain west

[@randycarson9812]

The commissioner of the Big 10 knows how many Big 10 alumni live in the Atlanta market. If that number is big enough, they may add Tech. If not, we either wind in the Big 12 or in a hastily reconstituted ACC made up of ACC leftovers and G5 teams invited to "move up."

[@str33t3r]

Living in Ohio, there are rumors of the BIG wanting FSU, Miami, and UNC, with UNC mainly for the Basketball side. Same for Kansas, the BIG wants Kansas, but not sure how that will work out. I can see the BIG moving to a 4 division conference with 6 schools per division. Midwest/West on one side, North/South on the other, playing a 10 game schedule, with division winners playing for the right to play in the conference championship. 24 teams would be a lot of schools, but there are a lot of great schools out there, Tech included, the BIG would take to fill out the conference. The BIG isnt just looking at this as purely football, they are looking at Basketball as well, and getting UNC and Kansas would send shockwaves through college basketball.

[@V1LL14N313]

Reason Miami has low attendance is probably due to the fact their stadium is off campus

[@richardturner3464]

get this man a bromo seltzer!

[@timothyblack3322]

On the graph titled “A New Reality In Tv Viewership”. Florida State is on the the Leftside @#4 in tv viewership & that’s above 🍀.

[@manifesteddestiny.]

I would put Duke higher just bc there's a chance the state legislature passes something attaching them to unc.

[@Alan-lv9rw]

Schools like SMU and UConn would have much greater numbers if they were in a power conference. And a lot of the power conference schools would have horrible numbers if they were in a G5 conference.

[@mckeerebel]

So firstly, I am a Florida fan, but I have lived in NC for a decade. The one real issue I see in your placements is Duke. When the ACC finally does die, Duke will go wherever UNC does. In all honesty Duke will probably end up being a big reason UNC gets invited to the Big 10. They have superior academics than anyone in the ACC and overall revenue higher than all but FSU and Clemson. Duke is pretty much the only school that can say football is secondary to basketball unironically, and it not be a negative on a realignment front.

[@AmatoMotos]

I am a Syracuse fan and Alumni G'23 G'24 who also attended NC State, non graduating alumni and I absolutely love the ACC. NOW, having said that I have no loss of love for FSU or Clemson. I think they are way over rated and have been coddled by the ACC/CFP for way to long. I think the real reason for FSU and Clemson wanting to leave the ACC is SMU. 1) Not only did ESPN give the ACC more money per game for expansion, Cal and Stanford are taking delayed payments. 2) SMU said "meh, keep the TV money for the remainder of the contract" then went and raised $200m usd in 1 week to cover that shortfall. SMU is dangerous, let us not forget they got the death penalty in 1987 and are still kicking around. They have had the misfortune of not being in a power 5 conference until now. They are in a huge media market, in a state where football is above guns and family and just below God. They are wealthy, they have wealthy alumni. They can taste this and everyone knows it. FSU and Clemson know they will have to face a reconning in 3-4 years when SMU gets up to full strength. Combine that with the Fran Brown effect on Syracuse football... dang right they are running!

[@zachellenburg5738]

I definitely think Cal has a shot at getting in the power 3, especially if they can somehow fix their financial situation. It’s definitely a very low chance, maybe like 5%, but it’s still a chance nonetheless.

[@mikestanshillporter4425]

I love the statistics, I agree with your analysis. This was a top tier video on this subject.

[@stevenl.halesr.6894]

#1. The BIG wants Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia because of "LOCATION"..."LOCATION"..."LOCATION", (Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Richmond etc...), that plus their academics and AAU status!!! #2. High School Football Recruiting!!! #3. Georgia Tech OFFERS more to the BIG then Rutgers did then and/or does now... At least Georgia Tech has a Winning History!!! "NEWS FLASH"... PLUS, they'll get/take Cal and Stanford "CHEAP" after the collapse of the ACC... For the SAME Damn Reasons!!! Now their footprint is Coast-to-Coast, and they will have MOST of the Major TV Markets, PLUS, and this is The BIG Reason, they are "NOW", in "The HEART of DIXIE"!!! That's their plan to create one of two 24-Team Semi-Pro Super Conferences and EXIT the NCAA! The SEC counters by taking Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech with the latter two teams helping to encroach into BIG Territory!!! To get to a 24-Team Super Conference, the SEC would need to add four more teams, and since MOST of the SEC are Land Grant Institutions, NONE of the Metro Schools left in the ACC fill the bill... So, "THERE'S ONLY ONE PLACE TO TURN", the Big-12, and to keep up with the BIG (Coast-to-Coast), they "POACH Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (to APPEASE Kentucky) and Utah! That's your two "SEMI-PRO, SUPER CONFERECNES", and at that point they "WILL BREAK AWAY" from the NCAA to create their own playoffs and championships in ALL SPORTS... After all, it's about "Making and KEEPING as much money as you possibly can, and to HELL with the rest of" College Athletics"!!!

[@nestofrobins1]

One thing that often gets overlooked is how the Networks will consider this. Since SEC and ACC rights are owned by The Mouse, will ESPN let Clem/FSU join the SEC, leaving its investment in the ACC worth so much less?

[@benjaminhawkes6693]

Some notes: GT is a top 20 research giant with over a billion dollars in research. SImple math tells you they will not be getting to 300-500 million in athletics spending. UNC/Pitt/Duke/Cal/Stanford are also all in that club. Compare GT to them, not Miami or Wake. AAU is not a "certification". It's a country club where they vote you in, and need 75% to vote you out or more would probably be booted than just Nebraska. Academics is seperate in many many ways. A school like FSU has a huge operating budget, but a middle tier research budget. GT, again, has a massive research budget. Syracuse (tony has a slide on this too) has one of the biggest fanbases in the ACC. Bigger than several that would surprise you, including FSU. That some of that translates to football? Not as shocking as you seem to think it should be.

[@stevemak8620]

Outstanding report. Congratulations on your good work, exceeding others and presenting a cogent rundown on the reality of the situation. Well done.

[@techsideline]

Louisville's TV viewing numbers are skewed a little higher than you might expect because Lamar Jackson was there in 2016 and 2017, two years that are included in the data. Folks tuned in to see him.

[@tomdemay6147]

The things Georgia Tech has going for it is the Atlanta market, not so much for TV sets but a recruiting footprint for Big 10 or Big 12 in Georgia. Also it would help to attract Notre Dame. If you were to tell me as a Notre Dame fan that we will end up being forced in the Big 10 the teams I would like Big 10 add to make me feel good about that is FSU, Miami, UNC and either Clemson or Georgia Tech. If teams like Georgia Tech and NC State go to Big 12 I would rather ND stay Independent and try to get partial deal with Big 12 like they do with ACC now. Part of the destruction of the ACC is the Big 10 trying to increase its market share in Southeast versus SEC. I think teams like Louisville and Pitt are guaranteed to Big 12. They might be better for TV but they dont help the Big 10 to break into SEC markets which teams like Georgia Tech or NC State (as a backup if SEC gets UNC) do still do that.

[@Jon.A.Scholt]

If things really blow up Tech will land in the Big Ten. One of the only decent schools in the deep south, huge media market, large number of Big Ten alumni in the Atlanta metro area. From a life long Michigan fan, native Ann Arborite and alum, we'd welcome Tech into the Big Ten with open arms.

[@techsideline]

Regarding athletic department debt (roughly the 19-minute mark), I'm not sure why TJ doesn't have the data for Virginia Tech's debt. We run financial articles for VT athletics at Tech Sideline every year, and in the most recent report we ran, for FY2022, the Hokies had $97 million in athletic debt, per their reports to the state government.

[@JB-nx2ih]

SEC takes FSU, Clemson, NC State & VT as academics align and each school has good all-around sports programs (and are the best football programs in the ACC historical which is what means most to them - while adding 2 new markets) .....BIG 10 adds UVA, UNC, Miami & maybe GT as all these teams have strong academics (all are AAU) and markets.... Big 12 can choose from the best of the rest which I think Louisville, Pitt & Duke bring value but after that not much there......The rest (WF, Syracuse, BC , SMU, Cal, Stanford) align with Pac 2 (Or. St. & Wash. St.) and reform that conference which brings them up to the minimum number of teams they need to stay as a conference (and why they are not rushing to join MW) ....and no ND will never join a conference, so everyone needs to get idea out of their head.

[@johnburns6761]

Remember winning ain't free send a check even if it's only 💯 dollars we need 40,000 fans sending a check every quarter, which would be 16 million dollars annually

[@Shaboomquisa]

I heard state is going with unc. really surprised unc isnt dragging duke along where ever they go

[@Elitehokie]

If vt goes to the sec we should have a new rival in south caralina and call it the Beamer battle

[@briggsofdisaster]

See you soon Notre Dame! Sincerely, The Big Ten

[@Tewhill357]

Significant numbers of Syracuse alumni can be found in Boston, NYC, and Philly. There's three big media markets.

[@basedjiren3889]

From what ive seen from this video is that Miami should be the 1st to get an invite after FSU and Clemson which is what ive said from the beginning

[@Goldfella-X]

This feels so depressing. It's hard to imagine Georgia Tech making it through conference realignment, and I desperately want to see them end up okay, but it feels like too little too late.

[@Doc_Boots]

College football Mafia/Big 12 Mafia did a metrics episode by a guy in the industry on GT. You might find it interesting. Check it out.

[@JCJacket09]

They'll be fine

[@vegasgal777]

Hope that GT goes to the B1G!

[@glennwilliams2950]

I like GT and if they ever prioritized football (university wide) I think it’d be a compelling add but I just don’t see them ever being serious about football.

[@benjaminhawkes6693]

@@Doc_Boots That actually put them at below the median... why would you want a also-ran added to the conference?

[@basedjiren3889]

The problem with Miami as a Miami fan is that even in 2001, when they played average to below average teams the stadium was half empty. Miami fans are a weird breed

[@bahamasc]

Not too wierd if you think about it. I bet if one compared only private schools, and also showed thier student body/local alumni size it would explain more. If you look at other private schools I think its about what you expect. ND is an exception and is a tremendous success story with its TV and attendance. But if you look at some of the larger drawing private schools like USC and BYU they also have much larger student populations. Miami outdraws Stanford with about the same population size. Also to some extent location is a factor (many places football college football is the big thing, not so in Miami) and location of stadium to campus. Thats' why you'd see the TV ratings arent so bad for Miami.

[@Todayjunior44.]

I think if unc end up in BIG ,SEC will want nc state,not for the school itself but because they wouodnt want BIG to have the NC market and not themselves.

[@kwikdraw01]

You did an outstanding job on this video. After looking at all the charts and graphs i did not realize the gap between the Big10/SEC and the rest was so big..... Good JOB.

[@WarHog38KCS]

A very interesting video with all those comparative graphs involving all the college athletic conferences. You could see exactly how & why the P2 dominates college football. I agree with you pretty much on your predictions on ACC school landings. Georgia Tech may have a shot at the B1G with that Atlanta market and the Georgia fertile football recruiting. A shame Georgia Tech chose to leave the SEC in the early 1960's due to bad football officiating. The SEC still has that bad football officiating.

[@randycrownover5580]

Run a weighted average and podcast it. Great analysis. Great show. Thanks. Is it pronounced “Clemp-sun” or “Clem-sun”? I’m hearing a “p” from you.

[@BigDaddyDoc93]

Georgia Tech Clemson VT and North Carolina belong in the SEC maybe FSU maybe

[@glennwilliams2950]

We’d much rather prefer ND, FSU and UNC

[@joedegnan2142]

Huge Cuse fan here and I'm glad I heard your breakdown over conference realignment. The Cuse alumni base is huge in NYC. They draw big ratings in that market that's why the ACC grabbed them when the Big East fell apart. They also have a historical football program that has been down for the last 20 years or so. Before that they were a national power so any Cuse fan over the age of 40 is holding out hope of this reappearing. They also draw well in basketball and have a large basketball viewership. As you pointed out if the ACC completely blows up and ceases to exist they're in a rock and a hard place. They would be a Big 10 style school but the Big 10 already has Rutgers filling that NYC market share so I doubt that they would be interested in Syracuse. I also doubt that the SEC wants anything to do with the NYC market so it only leaves the Big 12 and Syracuse has big rivalries with West Virginia and Cincinnati from their Big East days so it feels like that's where the program would fit if in any conference. They could do what UConn just did and go Football Independent and rejoin the Big East for basketball which would thrill the fan base. I guess only time will tell. I do appreciate your analytical approach to realignment. Most of these podcasts on this issue that I've seen simply don't look at all the factors that you did.

[@johnburns6761]

The only reason that the B1G would want Tech is the Atlanta market. Plain and simple

[@NorCalTrojanman91]

But they get the Atlanta market if they get Clemson

[@johnburns6761]

@NorCalTrojanman91 nope not in my opinion Can you imagine Michigan and Ohio state playins at the flats. They would still have to fly to Atlanta and take a bus to clemson, not quite the same.

[@NorCalTrojanman91]

@@johnburns6761 I think the Big ten would much rather fly into Atlanta and go to Georgia Tech. But the numbers just don't stack up in GT favor. Personally I think Clemson goes to the SEC. And if the SEC also claim UNC, FSU and UVA, then I think the BIG will go back to ND and Miami. If ND stays Indy that opens the door to GT. Just me spouting off

[@johnburns6761]

@@NorCalTrojanman91 I believe Atlanta and South Florida are very attractive to the B1G

[@StunninglyHumble]

@@NorCalTrojanman91 Clemson is in South Carolina and not Georgia, so Clem. is not the Atlanta market. U. Georgia and GTech if it gets serious about FB is the Atlanta market. The only thing that holds GTech back is that it has not been serious about FB, it has been serious about academics which UGA has not been, but UGA has been serious about FB and this is what wins. This tells you that FB and not academics is what millions of dollars are being thrown at, while academics is getting lip service and nothing else. The SEC in general is FB First Academics Lip Service only.

[@jimmyjam5453]

Its been 20 years but if Miami starts winning the eyeballs will come.

[@philipbrister]

It’s true. Terrible timing for Miami

[@Stevie_D_Pre]

I heard that techs president has been lobbying whatever govt board oversees degree programs to add more for tech but has been blocked many times. UGA alum on the board probably (only half joking) but I think he’s pushing harder than ever now. If ACC wins the suits and kicks this can down the road for a few years could give tech just enough time to make themselves more attractive. All starts on the field (or court)

[@tylergangwer1809]

I see the Big10 going after the more northern teams in the ACC, pump up the lacrosse, hockey, and basketball, and naturally football will rise as well do to revenue…FSU, Miami are the only outliers that the Big10 would want..ND will be in the BIG10 no matter what they want eventually it’s a matter of when not if…

[@Robcadams1974]

And if GT would have not played safe football for 12 years and had hired someone like a Cutcliffe and won more bowls and ACC titles, our attendance today would be higher. Maybe closer to 60,000.

[@keithminter5220]

Cutcliffe, it has been documented, didn’t want to deal with Tech’s academic restrictions. And if you want to say Duke is a tough academic place you are comparing apples and oranges.

[@Robcadams1974]

@keithminter5220 not true. He exprressed interest, but PJ was given the job before he could interview. That's why he was so sour towards PJ and critical of his offense.

[@glennwilliams2950]

The issue is the lack of admin support. GT refuses to have the same majors as MIT. You have these silly Calculus requirements that make it very difficult to field a competitive team. Until GT decides to prioritize football they won’t be going anywhere.

[@mdsnprks]

Nick Saban could be the coach and I don't think you would make 60,000 attendance. Bobby Dodd only seats 55,000. I love Tech but they are playing in the stadium of a large Texas high school.

[@DESmith-ek7rf]

@@mdsnprks 55,000 and dropping with the new athletic building that's going to be built where the Edge Center currently is located....

[@TheMCJ2011]

This may actually work out for the better for Tech in the long run. If they’re still left in a rebuilt ACC then they’d have a way better shot at winning the conference and making the playoffs.

[@RUTONY-sk3zn]

Wrong! FSU to the B10

[@malcolmjones27]

Why? Because you said so?!

[@brianbarwick908]

Yes

[@danielmarley9922]

In my opinion, this should have been resolved in 2012 and call it a day. There were 124 schools, you could’ve had 10 conferences of 12 teams with 4 independents. In lieu of individual FCS call ups to FBS, it should have a group of 12 FCS teams coming up at once to form a new conference. FBS Independents Notre Dame, Army, Navy, BYU. American Athletic Conference Rutgers, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, UConn, USF, UCF, Memphis, SMU, Houston, Cincinnati. Atlantic Coast Conference Boston College, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami. Big 10 Conference Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska. Big 12 Conference Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Boise State. Conference USA Marshall, UAB, UMass, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, FIU, South Alabama, Temple, East Carolina, Troy, Southern Mississippi. Mid American Conference Buffalo, Kent State, Akron, Toledo, Ohio, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State. Mountain West Conference San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Wyoming, Colorado State, Utah State, Air Force, Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, Idaho. Pacific 12 Conference Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, UCLA, California, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah. Southeastern Conference Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Arkansas. Sun Belt Conference Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, UTSA, New Mexico State, Texas State, Louisiana, ULM, North Texas, Arkansas State. *** United Athletic Conference Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Liberty, Old Dominion, James Madison, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Appalachian State, Sam Houston State.

[@andrewlilly2947]

Syracuse has a ton of fans if you're not sitting in the south. We have no shot at B1G or SEC but if we're able to actually turn our football team around we are as big a draw as anyone in the ACC/B12 leftovers.

[@EyeOfTheWatcher]

that is why i think the ACC will survive in some fashion, as there is not enough landing sports for every time in the ACC. The play here would be the ACC is to get settlement from Clemson and FSU along with expand the western schools with SDSU, Colorado State, and then try to get Utah and BYU along with one other western school so that you have a western division and a eastern division.

[@tomdemay6147]

the problem is Syracuse is no where near the recruiting potential footprint that a team like Georgia Tech or Duke does. That makes them more valuable than their TV money because a recruiting footprint in this area will raise other teams in the conference who recruit there. If having a team in Atlanta helps UCF recruit better and become a top 25 team that makes their TV games worth more money which raises the TV revenue. This is something people often forget to factor in. It's part of the reason Maryland and Rutgers got Big 10 invites, because even if these teams suck Penn State will be helped in recruiting New Jersey, Maryland, Washington DC etc where there are alot of players. So Penn State becomes a stable top 10 type program instead of a top 25 type, which makes their brand for TV marketing stronger. This was part of the error of the ACC in adding teams like Syracuse and Boston College to begin with. Not only do they not bring TV revenue but they arent great areas for high school recruits either. They were added for basketball and "market size" instead of football and that is what is killing ACC football. ACC should have added Rutgers instead of them, they should have invited Louisville sooner and added Houston before Big 12. Then as soon as TX / Oklahoma left the ACC should have went all in on trying to steal Baylor and TCU. That would be the only scenario where ACC could have survived. Now when ACC is raided there wont be enough left to reform the conference. Louisville, Pitt, Duke will probably end up in Big 12. It's much more likely Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest join Big East with UConn and try to add some teams like Memphis than it is that they will reform ACC.

[@bsakoff]

I still think the SEC takes GT just to keep the Big 10 out. I know they have UGA and don't necessarily need Tech, but they really don't want the big 10 in the heart of SEC country.

[@jamieharper1051]

Syracuse is in Central, NY its most definitely a college area of the state. SYRACUSE would have even better viewership numbers if they were able to recruit good players for football. Syracuse is more like VT,UofL, in that regard they support the school but they don't have the football success to match Unfortunately

[@Mark_Cadden]

Pre-video Watch thoughts; The title insinuating Pitt would need help of some kind finding a landing spot is interesting. The Big 12 has been clamoring after them since before they joined the ACC and would send them an invite within an hour if the ACC dismantled. IMO the more legit question would be would they land in the “power 2” or settle for Big 12. Pitt has history and AAU accreditation and if it wasn’t for Penn State blocking them they might be in the Big 10 already Edit: After finishing your video (admittedly should’ve done that before I commented) I agree with your assessment that they have a power 2 shot but would make the Big 12. Solid video

[@tomdemay6147]

yup you 100 percent right on Wake. Wake is screwed because they are even behind Duke and Clemson. So Wake is 5th in a 2nd tier state for recruiting while Georgia Tech is 2nd in a tier 1 state for recruiting. Getting Georgia Tech for the Big 12 would help teams like UCF recruit that area. Adding Wake Forest isn't going to help anyone recruit North Carolina. If Big 12 was trying to get into North Carolina market I think Duke is far better and maybe even a team like UNC Charlotte thinking long term. Similar to how adding Houston was smarter than adding SMU.

[@Bigman42072]

You don’t think there would be a chance Tech would make the SEC even when there in the heart of the south and were in the original SEC?

[@wrecktalk]

No they would never be voted in by the teams plus they don't add anything to the SEC

[@arranadams2776]

Great video - I’m a Maryland fan - Terps looks pretty smart in leaving the ACC - thoughts?

[@christschool]

Nope, you're still running a deficit and have no natural rivals anymore.

[@glennwilliams2950]

Is this a joke. When 80% of the ACC is in the dust bin of history Maryland will be playing big time sports. They may even get to play old rivals like UNC and FSU again. Have fun in the AAC.

[@Wahoo-wj8vu]

I don’t think the Big Ten wants Clemson. Clemson probably wants the SEC. The Big Ten would sit happily at 20 members IF it could add NC, and convince ND to join.

[@zachscar1891]

I’m saying this as a UNC fan I would amazed if Duke wasn’t a group 2 ( categories in your video). I know this is a football Channel but Dukes basketball prestige and viewership is enough alone to be highly desired.

[@Muddybagclean]

Jesus Loves You

[@slibertas1996]

Notre Dame is Big 10 bound

[@yerapotatoharry]

There is truly a finite amount of spots left in a P2 scenario, even at the Big 12. These conferences are not going to add for the sake of adding - that just means more numbers that must split the revenue. If a school brings media viewership that truly moves the needle for the big picture, they will get elevated. After Clemson and FSU leave, we’re talking about MAYBE a maximum of 3-4 other programs moving on. There’s going to be really good athletic programs left behind.

[@kkadera]

Miami attendance issues go back to the beginning... Packed for good matchups when playing at an elite level, only. It has to be an event to draw a crowd in that city. For the ride or die, we just accept this as normal.

[@thetarheelhuddle]

UNC and Miami are AAU. I am praying that Carolina goes to the SEC. I’d much rather play South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee as regional rivalries than heading up the Midwest for half the year. I think there’s a real shot that the SEC, in order to put a stranglehold on the southeast, pulls every available string for Carolina and in part really grabs a hold of the TV market in NC. And I think it drastically benefits UNC football and keeps more homegrown talent at home. State of NC produces the 8th most 4 and 5 ⭐️s in the country. Many of them leave for SEC teams naturally. It would be a much easier sell if UNC was in the SEC. Great content as always, Wreck!

[@glennwilliams2950]

I think they fit in better in the B1G but if they do go to the SEC I’d be more than happy with FSU and ND

[@WeSRT4]

This is really eye opening! It may be that only Clemson and FSU get to go to the Big 2!

[@timothyblack3322]

Miami not be wanted by the SEC, Ditto for Wake: & for Duke is doing l too see clearlly hard sight views. As small simple private university. Timing & the exact funds, with new members. **. Watching too see appears to be in latter on trip. No idea exactly has been I done.****wait & See. What happen? This is an exact time dates, times, etc…

[@cjon3006]

Great videos, I just found your pod cast. I'll give my honest option from a K-State grad. (w/ kin at Mizz, KU and GT). Off the top - this comment acknowledges the SEC/B1G provides the most media revenue . Also, I believe SEC/B1G will max out at 20 members (after 20 members revenues will drop as more teams are added). GT assumptions for SEC/B1G consideration : 1) GT would not get a full-share in SEC/B1G - if GT get invited at all 2) GT will get buried by GU in SEC (recruiting/attendance/etc.); And GT will struggle to find a foot-hold in B1G (disjointed and no true rivals) 3) GT games will get relegated to teir 3 exposure in SEC/B1G (ie SEC/B1G networkS, or ESPN 3) GT assumptions for B12 considerations : ***I believe GT is in a unique position (similar to the position as CU). if GT follows in CU foot-steps, and they take proactive action to join the B12 (as the 1st team in) 1) GT will get a full share 2) GT will be a major strong hold (ATL market) 3) GT will get tier 1 or 2 exposure under B12 media contracts (Fox & ESPN) 4) GT will get in the TX, FL, OH, AZ recruiting areas Side note: - With attendance, the top 7 teams in the B12 sell-out all there home games (Stadium are all 65-55K in occupancies). - Media partners don't give a shit about academic accolades

[@kafkakaraoke]

I agree if GT wants to guarantee a spot in the B12, they have to be proactive, be the first to leave like Col. Otherwise, they may not make the top 4. I don't see the B12 going past 20 unless it's Basketball only schools. Like I said above, Duke & Miami are unlikely but best case scenarios. Louisville & Pitt are shoe ins if available. NC St. & Va Tech are next then GT & Syracuse. So you're going to have to move quicker than the others. Syracuse is in the same spot. IMO

[@Mr.Ed_Wayner]

My guess is FSU, UNC, Miami and UVA to B1G. Clemson, VT, NCSt and Kansas to SEC. Pitt, Louisville, Duke, Syracuse & UConn (to cover for losing Kansas) to B12 to further strengthen BB. GT, Wake, BC, Calford & SMU join up with Washington St & Oregon State in a reformed PAC-12 and then pick off top AAC & MWC to stay P4. The could also 🎉take USF, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, CSU, AF, SDSU & Boise St (or Fresno) to get 16. Remaining MWC schools may merge with AAC and C-USA schools to form best of the rest G5.

[@simon2077]

@@kafkakaraoke IMO I think VT is the 1st priority of the Big 12 for numerous reasons. First of all VT and NC State have made inquires to the Big 12 already. All money aside VT is a land grant college mirroring K-State in many ways. Culture is a great fit, plus they are a rival to West Virginia. If its strictly a money thing the SEC will get them if they want them. Would they be happier in the SEC? Very questionable. NC State will go to the SEC. If I was Yormark & as a K-State fan my preference would be Virginia Tech, Louisville, then either Pitt, GT and yes even UCONN to round out a Big 20. UCONN will not join unless its in all sports.

[@kafkakaraoke]

@simon2077 NC ST. & VA Tech would be great fits in the B12, both culturally and competitively. Though unlikely, the B12 has to go after the brand power that Miami & Duke carry, just in case. VA Tech, NC St., & Louisville make too much sense in the B12 for either side, not to be in serious discussions as this plays out. We've got time, teams will start jocking for positioning, and those who are pro active will be in a better position. As long as NC St. & VA Tech keep all their options open and are prepared to move quickly they'll have no problem finding a home. IMO. Hopefully, in the B12.

[@TeachinTV]

Attendance matters. The advantages are with the state public schools located in small towns. The bigger the city in which the university is located, the bigger the problems they have attracting big numbers. Wake Forest? Duke? Forget 'em. Although FSU is located in Tallahassee, a state capital, it's a SMALL town! I graduated from FSU. I know about Miami, Boston, Atlanta, Pittsburgh--BIG cities with a lot of places to spend a Saturday seven or eight weekends a year. Winning games brings crowds, period. Academic superiority brings occasional great players and winning seasons, mostly rarities. A rich and popular alumni association is also a key to winning by landing highly-paid coaches and NIL-motivated players. There will always be the haves and have nots. Back in my day, geography determined where you play. Now, rip up the map.

[@kingsgambit7734]

Big XII would take Duke over GT in a heartbeat. They love bb.

[@kingsgambit7734]

If you doubt me...go watch 365 Sports. They do a terrific job covering most of Collegiate football but specialize on the Big XII.

[@MattBuild4]

Does Duke really want to go play in the blender conference or go to the SEC/B10 and dominate in the sports they actually care about? OU didnt even make the freaking tournament coming out of the B12 this year. They would have been 4th by record if they were in the ACC. And the B12 gets HARDER next year when they add Arizona.

[@kingsgambit7734]

What option will they have if the ACC implodes??? That is Duke's problem.@@MattBuild4

[@StunninglyHumble]

@@MattBuild4Hmmm, look at the stats and see that the ACC is 6-1 in the NCAA BB tournament. Granted that the pitiful showing by Virginia should count as about 4 losses, but the other ACC teams are doing well at least so far.

[@MattBuild4]

@@StunninglyHumble Ok so the current B12 is 7-5, potentially 9-5 by EOD. With the additional teams they add and minus UT, the B12 currently would be: 10-4, potentially 12-4 by EOD.

[@adam6072]

I am not a GT fan. But, I think GT could be the sleeper of conference realignment. It would not surprise me one bit if the B1G took GT. I also think Duke is a sneaky expansion candidate. It is such a shame the ACC undervalued their brand so much with an asinine contract. The conference has incredible assets they can't do anything with.

[@glennwilliams2950]

I don’t think you understand realignment well.

[@adam6072]

@@glennwilliams2950 What am I not understanding?

[@blakenagy8399]

With fsu slinging mud at espn in their filing against the acc, its possible that fsu could be headed to the Big10 instead of the sec

[@michaelhart6318]

Nope. FSU's application for AAU membership was rejected. Big 10 only accepts AAU members. FSU to the SEC

[@blakenagy8399]

@@michaelhart6318 possibly, but that aau status can be overlooked, because at the end of the day, money talks.

[@Interestingenough4]

@@blakenagy8399 Indeed. Fox could always wave a wad of cash in front of the B1G and convince them to make an exception.

[@danz1182]

You guys dont understand the B1G if you think they would make an exception to that. That is 100% not going to happen. Their chancellors would never allow it, especially Michigan and Wisconsin.

[@davidkreitzer4401]

Viewership for Georgia Tech will skyrocket against B1G teams. So current numbers are almost meaningless.

[@wrecktalk]

Source?

[@davidkreitzer4401]

@@wrecktalk Source? Common sense. You play Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Penn State, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin etc. your viewership numbers are going to get jacked.

[@buckeyedj8255]

@@davidkreitzer4401 But that is only because the Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Penn State, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin fans are watching - and probably for only the first half when the game becomes a blowout. You could say the same thing if these schools played a really good high school team.

[@jimnewton9024]

I'm in my​@@buckeyedj8255

[@carladams9345]

​@@davidkreitzer4401tell that to rutgers

[@MattHoffman-d3g]

If Tech spent 30% of its research budget on athletics (~$360M) it’d have the largest athletics budget in the country and would be over 50% larger than Texas ($230M). This video is a prime example of blind statistics and no normalization or context.

[@mickeyellison7929]

West Virginia had it's worst attendance in decades. We usually average between 56,000-60,000.

[@benwhealler4278]

I bet Stanford, Cal, and SMU are feeling like absolute idiots.

[@davidframe1613]

I think ACC fans are overthinking how valuable their teams are I think big 10 may take two teams I don't look for the SEC to take any of them seem like a bad fit unless the SEC ads a couple Big 12 teams like West Virginia and Kansas or Kansas State. But I do look for the Big 12 to take six teams out of the ACC and that's probably about it unless West Virginia and one of the Kansas teams go to the SEC then they will take eight ACC teams.

[@kafkakaraoke]

👎 no more poaching of the B12. Pretend we're invisible, please🙏 .

[@troywest7045]

Alot of ACC fans think the B1G is gonna roll out the red carpet and give them a full share right away. I expect the B1G to offer 2-4 teams if the ACC splits up, but at most any get is a half share with a possibility of even a smaller share.

[@joet7136]

Why would the SEC want a Kansas team?

[@simon2077]

@@joet7136 They complete, not just a bunch of dead weight.

[@saltwatersanity7445]

Uninformed. MIAMI HAS ALWAYS HAD ATTENDANCE ISSUES, EVEN IN THE 80s and 90s. Long time season ticket holder. Too much going on in Miami unless they are winning or a big opponent. Nothing to do in Tallahassee or Tuscaloosa or Lincoln except attend a football game on Sat. Also night games are packed but noon games are a tough sell when it's 95° and 90%humidity in Miami through Nov. When it's a gorgeous 70s throughout the country

[@randyGBO]

GT was a member of the SEC at one time.

[@highlandergunn9240]

They were a founding member of the SEC I'm all for GT to the SEC and I'm a Bama fan. It would be nice to see the Wreck back in the SEC

[@Shaboomquisa]

and the football team would be 1-12@@highlandergunn9240

[@benwhealler4278]

@@Shaboomquisa We're not Vandy bad.

[@terryfox9344]

Thanks for the great information. I have so many things that I want to say that I could write a book just in response to your commentary. You probably don't remember but "Tech" was an Independent for about 30 years after leaving the conference that it founded, the SEC, so please stop complaining about Notre Dame. To the best of my knowledge, no one black-balled you like Michigan did even AFTER IT HAD BEEN KICKED OUT OF THE B1G! Oh, and stop with the elitism, as some schools are subject to state legislatures who require them to accept every HS graduate living in a city, because the school has an "urban mission". A good school takes the students that it is given and produces better graduates four years later. A bad school like North Carolina gives out fraudulent degrees based on fraudulent classwork for over 20 years to athletes and Sankey says "the NCAA fully supports North Carolina awarding college degrees to athletes that haven't gone to class and haven't learned a thing." With regard to Georgia Tech my advice is to support Coach Key and in a few years those statistics may look better. With regard to other ACC schools without an invite to the P2, the ACC is a FAR better conference than the Big XII, and they would be damn fools not to make the ACC a better conference after a couple of the schools leave. The Big XII has the very same GOR as the ACC. Why don't the SEC and the B1G want any of those schools? The question answers itself.

[@jonathanwoods3136]

Something to consider is market potential and competition. I’m a Louisville fan but why would the SEC take Louisville? They already have a stake in the market so Louisville doesn’t add a whole lot in terms of expanding conference reach. Both the B1G and SEC want the Virginia and North Carolina markets so I think they’ll probably at least take a school each in both states. Also to take in consideration is brand growth by being in the SEC or B1G. Take a school like Vanderbilt who if they weren’t an old time member of the SEC would essentially be on the level of the top of group of 5. But they get added brand power due to pure association to the SEC. Just something to consider.

[@seanakima50515e]

It would balance everything out if the ACC collapsed and FSU, Clemson and Miami went to the Big 12. And the big 12 drops Cincinnati, and BYU That would balance out the football landscape a bit better, anf give the 3 major conferences at least 6 major brands in their conference there are more but this would give the Big 12 6 as well and 3 teams people want to watch as they currently dont have A SINGLE MAJOR brand name. As it would be Big 10 Ohio State Oregon Michigan Penn State Washington USC SEC Alabama Georgia Texas Oklahoma Florida Texas A&M Big 12 FSU Clemson Miami Utah Colorado Oklahoma State

[@happynotredamefan3736]

Really question is where do we play our non football games? Independent all the way lol.

[@williamdiehl117]

Louisville has ZERO chance at the Big10. I would put Georgia Tech, above Pitt. Simply because of their location in the southeastern US, plus being in Atlanta. Pitt is unlikely for the Big10, that area is already covered from PSU and Ohio State. What could save either Duke or Stanford is if they are a "partner" with another school that the Big10 wants. Stanford could get into the Big10 as a partner for Notre Dame (very long time rivals and the fact that Stanford has one of the largest endowments and research programs could get them in). Duke in the same vein could be a partner for UNC if it meant getting UNC to the Big10, the Big10 would look at Duke. Big10 wish list from ACC - (excluding ND). 1. FSU. 2. UNC 3. Miami 4. UVA Notre Dame is the Golden Ticket that any conference would want.

[@gregnelson1330]

I'm an Arizona alum, I'd love to see Duke & Louisville join the Big 12. I hope UNC, NCST & Miami fall into our lap. Others worth considering; Virginia, VTech, Pitt, GTech & Syracuse.

[@basedjiren3889]

I was told by FSU fans that Miami isnt profitable yet im looking at a chart that Miami is 3rd in the conference in football revenue behind ND and FSU and in front of Clemson 🤔

[@jakenunya1587]

Why is it so hard to understand that teams that have the best attendance numbers are all located in small cities/towns? Most of these high attendance schools are the only game in town. The few large city programs with high attendance (OU, UW, UT) are also geographically isolated locations where college football also is or has historically been the only high profile events. On the #games with 4M+ viewers.. that is impacted by how the network schedules each team. A better measure would be to compare viewership for games shown on prime time. Another misunderstood aspect of TV viewership / market when it comes to Miami is how Florida having such a high population density has highly segmented and localized TV markets. For example. The Miami / Ft. Lauderdale market covers only 3 counties (1 of them is the Florida Keys). Palm Beach, which is part of the Miami metro area has its own separate TV market. This is the equivalent of Dallas and Ft. Worth or Minneapolis / St Paul having 2 separate markets. UM is the primary CF team for 5 TV markets in Florida, not just the Miami / Ft. Lauderdale one.

[@glennwilliams2950]

Wait, Columbus (the largest city in Ohio) and Ann Arbor (suburb of Detroit) are small cities and towns with no other games in the area? USC and UW anre isolated? I never knew LA and Seattle were Timbuktu. Winning is the name of the game when Rutgers, Cal, miami are winning they will have tons of fans. When they suck people have better things to do.

[@joshuanazworth-vy5mt]

Listen listen I try to be nice as possible since I'm a huge Florida State fan as a Florida State fan you guys can't not just hate us because when we file a lawsuit and we jumped the gun more than Clemson we've been at it for a long time in decades this going back a decades like maybe four decades 4 1/2 days maybe five and a half decades before state is been known to want to leave the ACC conference and if this goes for States way which is I think will because Florida State University away won the ACC lawsuit in North Carolina on Friday that judge reward for stay and now it's up to the Florida judge in our county which is Leon which is on Leon county Court.? Wreck Talk

[@jeffreywhitlock4882]

I like the analysis. I am a lifelong Miami fan. So far, we have been publicly supporting the ACC and not Clemson and FSU, which surprises me. It indicates we do not have a spot, at least right now on the Big 10. If FSU and Clemson end up in the SEC, that would create an opportunity for Miami, but that would have to happen first. It will be interesting to see what happens, all eyes are on UNC.

[@Thachadnwf]

Their throry that heard in passing that i would like your thoughts on. Acc and the ivy merging.the union case might case this to happen.

[@TNBuckeye1617]

One of the questions that has to be asked is: What can the Power 2 or the Big 12 do with teams that may potentially need a new home? The SEC could take VA Tech and create a triennial Battle at Bristol game between VA Tech and Tennessee. The Big Ten could create a UVA/Maryland/Rutgers rivalry. How far do the Big Ten or the SEC expand? 20+1 (Notre Dame) seems likely for the Big Ten in the current round of realignment. They have room for two. The next likely expansion number is 24 total and I think the Big Ten would likely then look west to add two teams + Notre Dame, so that’s still just 3 potential landing spots for ACC teams. I think the Big Ten would likely add Washington State and Oregon State before picking up either Cal or Stanford, if any of those four teams. The SEC does not have to match the Big Ten expansion for expansion and I think they are likely to stop at 20. This leaves 4 landing spots for ACC teams.

[@NorCalTrojanman91]

Washington State and Oregon State are not considerations for the BIG10. Especially not ahead of Cal and Stanford, that's just crazy talk. Cal and Stanford are wanted by the university presidents (the decision-makers) to continue the mirage that college sports are still about academics. Cal and Stanford are both top 10 AAU research universities residing in a population center of 9 million people. The Bay area has the most BIG 10 alumni in residence. Their problem is the same one GT has, limited game attendance. If GT was winning games, filling the stadium, and bringing in a TV audience on par with Clemson, no way would Clemson be getting any BIG10 consideration. All that love would go to GT.

[@TNBuckeye1617]

@@NorCalTrojanman91Cal and Stanford have one massive hurdle to overcome, that being California itself. The value of USC and UCLA was enough to overcome/mitigate the risk. Stanford might get in on a Notre Dame play by the Big Ten. On their own, however, Cal and Stanford just don’t offer sufficient value to add them. Honestly, I think it’s a moot point because without sufficient value in the west, the Big Ten is likely to stop at 20 with the possibility of adding Notre Dame for 21.

[@NorCalTrojanman91]

@@TNBuckeye1617 You and I are in agreement that the only way Stanford is going to the BIG is with ND asking. And then only if the BIG intends to go to 24. The BIG needs to get into Texas, Georgia and or Florida before looking West.

[@TNBuckeye1617]

@@NorCalTrojanman91The SEC has Texas on lock; there are no more brands big enough for the Big Ten in Texas. I think that either FSU or Miami are Big Ten bound. The thought of GA Tech joining the Big Ten is interesting and I can see them being lucky #3 in the East if the Big Ten goes to 24. I strongly believe that two more teams would come from the West in a 24 team Big Ten and that OSU/WSU have a shot at getting in (on reduced payouts) if the Big Ten is determined to add 4 teams (including ND) in the East. Who else that actually cares about football is a viable option? I think the fact that they were Power 5 and especially that they are traditional inter-conference rivals of the Big Ten helps their cause. Honestly, San Diego State probably has a better Big Ten shot than Cal or Stanford (without outside help).

[@mikemccabe8015]

​@@NorCalTrojanman91while it's true university presidents vote on realignment, it's the media networks that get new universities on the ballot. Unless Fox or ESPN give the green light, the presidents won't even be able to hold a vote. I don't see the media networks giving the green light to Cal/Stanford, otherwise the Big 10 would've grabbed them while grabbing Oregon and Washington.

[@Wahoo-wj8vu]

The Big Ten wants NC and Virginia. There has also been talk of adding GT and one of the Florida schools. Does anyone think GT would accept an invitation to the Big Ten or would they hold out for the SEC? Great show! I’m a Buckeye fan and I’m subscribing.

[@troywest7045]

I would imagine GT would accept if they were invited, but I don't think anyone outside of ND get anymore than a half share till the next media deal in 2030.

[@Doc_Boots]

Thank you for your analysis. There is a similar series on market analysis eval done by College football Mafia by someone in the industry that is very well done. They are also quite GT friendly.

[@7empest376]

AAU is what your looking to say.... I do hope GT lands with FSU

[@michaelhart6318]

The Big 10 will not accept a non AAU member. FSU & Clemson to the SEC.

[@7empest376]

@@michaelhart6318 Nebraska is not an AAU Member

[@timothyblack3322]

@@michaelhart6318, First, the AAU is nothing more than a “glorified Lobbyist group” it seeks federal funding for research. It was never designed to provide information on the quality of education provided by any school of higher education, nor does it give any measurable information of success for graduate’s from a particular Institution. The AAU is very much like a Country Club, membership is by invitation only. AAU Status changes year to year with some schools being invited to join & others kicked out every year. ESPN & FOX Sports are driving this bus. TV Viewership 1) Alabama 2) Ohio State 3) Texas 4) Florida State in the country. Perhaps you should tell the B1G Commissioner & FOX to stop communicating with Florida State University??? Academically Florida State University ranks higher than more 1/2 the B1G University’s. That is not meant to insult any B1G Schools, but to educate you, since you seem confused & uninformed.

[@BrysonConroy]

You must be one to join, not to stay .@@7empest376

[@Robcadams1974]

Wreck, I'm usually always an optimist, but I don't see anything postive in the future for GT if the ACC implodes.

[@jimmyjam5453]

GT to B10

[@Robcadams1974]

@jimmyjam5453 I wish but GT is broke

[@Gh0stRider]

Not trolling, but GT may be similar to Rutgers. If the B1G Network has the same arrangement with cable companies where they more money for just being in the market as they did with Rutgers/NYC then I think GT will get in the B1G. I could see the B1G creating a southern pod of FSU, Miami, UNC, UVA and GT.

[@michaelwilkins462]

Cable is dead. Disney is going to sell off ESPN. B1G regrets the Rutgers deal.

[@glennwilliams2950]

No we don’t. Rutgers has made us a ton of cash, opened new recruiting grounds and is actually a good basketball and football team now.

[@richardtaylor2361]

where are cal and staford?

[@aCycloneSteve]

Looking at the chart with 4 million person games the XII is without UT & OU. The ACC is without FSU & ND. We're now talking about Clemson, It would be interesting to see how the rest of the ACC schools drop if you also don't include Clemson.

[@aCycloneSteve]

PS: The B1G & SEC are on CBS/ABC and prime ESPN/FOX times. ACC, XII & PAC are usually on ACCN, PACN, FOX2, ESPN+ etc. They have to have lower viewership.

[@joecartwright9221]

Don’t get your hopes up for the Big 10 or SEC