Where is the Melt-Up and Deflationary Bust?! David Hunter Says It's Coming

David Hunter is the chief strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors. The macro strategist with nearly 50 years on Wall Street is well known for predicting a final melt up stage of the market cycle before a historic crash that rivals 1929.
🐦 Follow David on Twitter / davehcontrarian
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🗒️ IN THIS EPISODE:
0:00 Swan Bitcoin, Bitcoin 2024 promos
1:50 Still looking for a hard landing, bigger than 2008
5:33 Fed expanding balance sheet, government debt
8:25 Raising interest rates
10:21 "Melt up hasn't even hit yet."
13:32 Oil and the bond market
15:56 Fold app and debit card, Coinkite ColdCard promos
17:25 Why has gold underperformed?
19:48 David's forecast process
23:56 "We've gotten into an insane policy." MMT
30:31 BRICS currency, geopolitical picture
38:41 CrowdHealth, Orange Pill App promos
40:10 David's thoughts on Bitcoin
42:08 Opportunities for families, commodities, gold price
46:36 Accumulating wealth living paycheck to paycheck
50:23 Bond market
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Producer: Aron Bender / aron-bender
DISCLAIMER This show is for entertainment purposes only and does not give financial advice. Before making any decisions consult a professional. #bitcoin #cryptocurrency #money

[@mayacho4910]

The key to big returns is not big moving stocks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investing to day trading.

[@theresagarcia1218]

May I ask which stocks are good? I've been looking at a few different ones but want other opinions as well.

[@helenoliver4838]

@@theresagarcia1218

[@theresagarcia1218]

@@helenoliver4838 Are you in touch with a Financial-Adviser ? is your experience much better than investing on your own?

[@helenoliver4838]

@@theresagarcia1218 Yes I am in touch with a Financial Adviser and for the past 6months, I've been able to stay afloat the market crashes and I've watched my portfolio grow by over 40% these past few months.

[@theresagarcia1218]

@@helenoliver4838 Wow, that's remarkable, who is your FA and how do you suggest I reach out to him/her?

[@dimebagg1]

Drucken not Drunken. He’s not Polish lol

[@dlukton]

Gotta give him credit, at least, for having conviction; no wishy-washy forecast from him.

[@feelnrite]

He has been this way for a year or two at least and never sways. I think he will be right. I just hope I have the sense to pull out and go to the side lines.

[@foodmonsterweightloss5886]

@@feelnrite Pull out when the ATH is reached. Your comment says you have the "sense" as you see the wisdom of his analysis. It's haveing the COURAGE to pull out when everyone is jumping is that is the hard part.

[@christophercolombi]

It's Druckenmiller, not Drunkenmiller 😂

[@Bud189]

Great stuff Natalie, I love interviews that challenge my thesis

[@secretarypee]

Contattateci per maggiori informazioni

[@Stubbz40]

Wonderful interview!! Can you create chapters in your timeline for future videos?

[@franciswall4248]

Great suggestion

[@adamcar9376]

Very valueable, we need more Natalie !

[@satvindergata-aura3075]

I came across David Hunter during the Covid lockdowns in 2020 and have stuck to his thesis which has served me well. It is rare that you have someone with that much market experience willing to share with everyone so openly. Market veterans like Jim Rogers, Druckenmiller, etc always speak with riddles and never reveal their true position.

[@CheckingINN]

Same

[@rolandrickperry]

Riddlers everywhere

[@thatwhit1]

Same..he saved my portfolio…in David we trust…

[@CRYPTO-FEVER]

Agreed I wish David had his own KZbin channel I think he’d do well, I totally agree with his thesis on the markets and the melt up thats coming

[@blakealtonen9858]

Robert Kiyosaki too. Jim Rodgers is expecting a blow off as well he said it on wealthion

[@yonayehezkel3150]

We are controlled by laws of nature. There is a general force of nature, and two opposite forces-bestowal and reception-extend from it. We exist between these forces, and both of these qualities affect us. Then, the question arises: How do we develop under the influence of these forces? Where do we act? Where are we free? How do we accumulate and correlate these two forces within ourselves? How can we build ourselves out of them? These are the questions that the wisdom of Kabbalah engages in: how we receive these two forces in an optimal balance, and with their help, shape ourselves so as to resemble the very laws of nature, to arise and reach equivalence of form with the force of bestowal in nature. These very laws gave us the opportunity to control the pace of our progress in accepting them upon ourselves. That is the point of our freewill. How could we act if we do not have freewill? Who would we be? Would we just be like robots, always under control? Until now, we have always been under control. What does it mean? Nature as if injects a drop of egoism-the desire to enjoy at others’ expense-into us, and then it does so a little more, and a little more again, and we then get the impetus to move toward all kinds of egoistic goals. The more our egoism inflates, the more we become willing to move to increasingly gain at the expense of others. Nature constantly squeezes the syringe into us until it eventually infuses us with the full amount of egoism. Our era is characterized by the syringe of egoism having become completely injected into us, with no more egoism left to inject. That is why we have nowhere left to run. Where do we head from here? What do we do? Moreover, egoism has become global and integral. In the beginning, we felt good because we reached egoistic global connections in the world and thought that everything would be fine. However, when such connections started depending on everyone, we turned out to be nature’s opposite. At this juncture, we find ourselves with a major dilemma, and we need to work out what we do about it. Where our fully-inflated egoism coupled with our tightening global connections brings us to increasing problems around the world, today we require a new form of connection-enriching education that would have the ability to guide us on how to change our egoistic connections to altruistic ones. That is the key to a shift to a harmonious and peaceful world.

[@paullever9219]

Good interview thanks Natalie, I think other than bitcoin there are so few options to recover or even survive….thank you again.

[@REZZA2020]

Morning Natalie. Another great Episode!

[@thehungergames8918]

David Hunter is a legend 😃👊

[@chrisrock4428]

He’s full of it. Legend my Dupa

[@fritzcharles5125]

The interviewing Lady is incredibly good !

[@issenvan1050]

What happened to his July prediction?

[@ivorytickle]

Very interesting insight, and delivery. David's lack of conviction on Bitcoin is indeed VERY different than Michael Saylor's. It does make one question their stance and think/rethink things out which is stressful...but important

[@wasdwasdedsf]

not exactly news that there are plenty of people on the opposit side of theh issue. and almost uniformedly from people who arent particularily well versed in the subject

[@Ramzi_9]

The One and Only David Hunter!

[@dsneill]

So what do you predict will be the outcome of the end of the super cycle ?

[@dmitriy131]

Thank you ❗ GOLD FOREVER! 💪 📈

[@michaelgibbons]

Great interview.

[@TheChewbaca69]

Just after the intro.....Was that a suttle hint for him to zoom his camera out 😅

[@Ehffynniufrerthbbh]

😂😂😂😂

[@hiram.j]

30:39 "Stanley Drunkenmiller" lol

[@gumed85]

Nat you look gorgeous

[@John-wf5if]

lol

[@-j-l]

Natalie, you should interview Andy Schectman, a precious metals business owner who has his hand on the pulse of de-dollarisation and the value of gold/silver.

[@alainroy76]

Premiums are a scam

[@marcdipaolo5142]

Great interview. This guy is smart

[@antonbungay1598]

I’ve read CPI is all shelter, shelter, shelter. Oil minimal impact?

[@davodeewhy]

Good question at 6 minutes. DH did not say where that money was going. Infrastructure?

[@NappyWayz]

49:53 It seems that the savers are going to lose the most.

[@sensenisok]

More David !!!

[@jacknaneek1681]

This guy and his predictions? How does he get air time?

[@wasdwasdedsf]

what

[@sebastianburnaz6760]

Thx

[@roydesell223]

Dave though Thank you Natalie, great interview, Dave your gold $3000. by end of 2023 now your calling 16 months ??

[@tonyhewon199]

Bo crypto is going to help use out of dept if anything it will put use into more of a tail spin

[@user-qd1zo3fo2j]

This man is beautiful. I am glad he is so zoomed in

[@ScottPerkinsLCMT]

Its been 18 months and none of his predictions came true that he said would happen 14 months ago.

[@leefeegreenz]

Not true. He's forecasting macro not day to day.

[@woody_6666]

He was saying the same things last year. Within the next six months it was supposed to be the historical melt-up. Nothing like this happened. I don't believe in any melt-up until FED clearly states, the fight with inflation is over. At the moment, many more investors choose safe high-yield bond investments than riskier stock investments. Therefore, less money is on the stock markets and thus lower stock prices.

[@sandipkumarpandey7072]

I am following him on Twitter,He is saying the same things since at least 2018

[@vijjreddy]

why this debt is unsustainable? it would be if tax payer is going to repay the debt... when that day comes, there won't be any US Govt.. at least one that you would recognize... USA Govt is existing only because it doesn't ask its citizens to bear Govt expenses through Taxes, they meet all their essential and excesses both through Debt.

[@EyeValueTraveler]

A lor of this is narrative driven but on the general picture I can see him being close to how things will eventually turn out

[@ap-performance3850]

Why will the buyer of last resort be stopped? In regards to his comments around 29 minutes?

[@stan8850]

Did he stand by his original forecast that the SPY would reach between 6000 and 7000? thanks!

[@greigsanderson]

The melt up wont happen. 6k or 7k s&p is bonkers.

[@casamurphy]

Technical analysis for both the S&P and BTC shows a bull market, which is a good thing for BTC.

[@StockMarketCaddie]

He says alot, without saying anything.....amazing.

[@Noallegiance]

Code for "He doesn't say anything I want him to say"

[@NeuroPulse]

David has posts crying the same wolf story for 5-10 years on seeking alpha. He also blocked me on Twitter for replying to a critic with a little look into his history, which I was intending to use to defend him at the time. David "next year" Hunter.

[@jamesgeorge65]

Thanks for your comments. Do you think he’s wrong on this call? Just curious.

[@NeuroPulse]

​@@jamesgeorge65The fact that you felt the need to ask that tells me you are green behind the ears and have a lot to learn. David is a great guy to listen to and learn from. He knows a lot and thinks carefully. Just keep in mind he's been saying his call will happen in 6-12 months for the three years I've known of him and evidence shows he's been saying 6-12 months longer than that. As Bruce Lee said: absorb what is useful, discard what is useless and add what is specifically your own.

[@daviddunlop7661]

He just keeps dangling the carrot of hopium.@@NeuroPulse

[@Ehffynniufrerthbbh]

​@@NeuroPulsethe Bruce Lee quote earned my like

[@sirfrancis9619]

Hang on David made exactly same prediction last year...... so is this a yearly prediction now?

[@wasdwasdedsf]

hu

[@bigtaiho]

Cash is king in a time of crisis. No electric here in Lahaina. Cash only to purchase gas and food.

[@shakenbake6303]

#Bitcoin 👌😎🤙

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

David's timing may have been off but 2023 ended off on a stock market hugh proving most analyst incorrect. The trend if David's prediction continues to play out.

[@dro1888]

I know who David Hunter is, but who in hell is Natalie Brunell? first time watching her channel.

[@foodmonsterweightloss5886]

Sadly, all of this makes real sense. No tinfoil hat stuff, just an honest evaluation. Historically, over the past 700 years, there were debt driven deflationary depressions about every 70 years. They were always on a backed (gold or silver) monitary system so had less flexibiity on how much debt it took to implode the system. The fiat (decreed value) system has allowed the debt to expand beyond recognition. However, it is still debt and it will, must, be cleared through at the least a depression, or more likely, a monitary collapse. To get there, we could have a final blow off melt up of new ATH that lasts only a couple months. Looking at the deflation of China that's happening right before our eyes today, it's most probable the deflation impulse will hit globally as the debt driven recession ramps up. Give that a yaer or two at the outside. The powers that be will automatically print/stimulate to get us out of it. That will bring serious inflation - double diget for the best, triple didget for the weaker countires. And from there it's just time, of a few short years, until the point of failure is hit. In the middle of unimaginalbe strife, small governments like Sri Lanka will fail around the world. Large stronger governments which are in richer countries with natural resources like the USA will restructure as they default on thier debts and entitlements like the USSR did in the late 1980s. Silver lining? Again, historically, the result of the debt clensing has always been a period of decades long productivity and wealth building. The 2020s will be a rollercoaster. The 2030s will be disasterously tough. The 2040s should be great.

[@harpoen7358]

So much experience and insights are very helpfull to determine where to invest in

[@jamesgeorge65]

We’ll see if he’s right next year!

[@AllBetsAreOff-zt7xx]

He sure as heck was wrong all of 2022. He spent that entire year telling us repeatedly that the melt-up had begun, and banning from his Twitter account those that questioned his predictions. David Hunter is a cantankerous old fool.

[@V4BTC]

Time Stamps please.

[@greigsanderson]

David is NEVER right. Follow what he suggested and you've lost a Fortune.

[@RyanLang7]

Absolutely baffled by the David's response to your question about Bitcoin. 🤷‍♂

[@KishoreDuddekunta]

Dude has been calling meltups from 2013 every three months .

[@jimmylabb5868]

David is the next Lindsey William!

[@punitdholakia1744]

One thing i would have loved to hear his views on is at what time would you call it a top e.g. what if s&p goes up to just 5500 and then rolls over? When does he think the thesis is played out and complete in terms of a meltup

[@moa3810]

His thesis is played out between 6000 - 7000 on s&p

[@jayjenkins6021]

Dave is not going to try to call a top. His analysis is brilliant, but it's impossible to call a top. Be safe, take some earnings off the table. After the bust he is calling for I will be buying some mining stocks. There are several 10x and a few 100x mining stocks out there. That is gambling for sure, but I am well aware that it is and am investing with eyes open. Good luck!

[@foodmonsterweightloss5886]

@@jayjenkins6021 I agree with your stratigy. I'm currently (in my small way) building a precious metals portfolio. Who do you follow or are you doing your own company evaluations?

[@calvincheng865]

Sure he can stand for his bust. He is off from everything he said. TLT, bust, gold, silver, his timeline is all off.

[@specialist-in-tech]

Well that’s 53 minutes wasted, no one will ever get back.

[@macgee]

Nice presentation but there are way too many promotion’s and ads

[@chrisrock4428]

Where is the melt up?? Watch and learn. Smh.

[@NjonjoNdehi]

42:20

[@RJ-cc5cv]

I give this guy credit for knowing about the macros but he doesn’t know squat about bitcoin and probably has done zero research about it. He’s from the old system. Saw another guy similar on Kitco who was the same. He was for bitcoin but didn’t know anything about it 🙄

[@etsa2008]

He has been saying melt up in us equity SP500 to 6,000. and rally in metals( silver to rally to 50 and gold to 2500). He said it will happen by the end of 2021, then he moved it to the end of 2022, then he moved it to the end of 2023. If you would have followed his advice from 2021 you would have lost a lot of money. It is sad that people enable spread of lies and falsehood.

[@jamesfraser5860]

very beautiful lady makes hearing about crypto enjoyable. David always is.

[@secretarypee]

Contattateci per maggiori informazioni

[@dave8212]

👍💛

[@johnfehringer]

Good info but Too many ads.

[@user-wd3rj6wk7u]

Sir, Please do something to fix your positioning in front of the camera. It’s hard to watch when you’re so close.

[@GaiasFleas]

Wait so is SPX still going to 6000-7000 in October, as per Dave's forecast? Natalie did not actually get an update on the actual forecast, which is the basis of the title. Clickbaity and misleading.

[@GaiasFleas]

@@DaveHcontrarian Then you might as well say it's going to be sometime in 2025, or someday in 2150. And I can say the same thing too, since I can just say "it's a cycle call, you have to wait" when I'm wrong.

[@jimcopeland204]

Total lack of accounting for Innovation, I am Bitcoiner but Natalie, I find the doom and gloom lacking innovation and human creativity, why be alive if this is all dire,

[@terranceramirez4816]

38:00 that is a literal mass starvation scenario, if that plays out all of the repressed young men that are currently being kept sedated with video games and pr0n are going to go literal Sea Peoples on basically the entirety of society

[@felix2b5]

Still waiting for that melt up🙃

[@issenvan1050]

How has gold underperformed? Despite the crazy hiking cycle + QT + lack of credit + very high DXY, gold is at an arm’s length from its ATH in USD! What a dumb question!

[@issenvan1050]

What’s hard about BTC & how such a volatile thing is money?

[@SavanaT]

Too many ads 😢

[@blackhat965]

Oh god please stop giving this clown airtime. He’s been saying this since 2017. When markets rally he claims victory. When markets fall he claims the melt up will come. No meltdown though.

[@blackhat965]

@@DaveHcontrarian only thing I’ve learned in your broken record melt up melt down call is that you’ve been wrong for 6 years in a row. Only melt up or sideways choppiness, no melt down. You’re not contrarian to mainstream consensus. You’re just contrarian to profits.

[@jamesgeorge65]

@@blackhat965 Dang!

[@blackhat965]

@@DaveHcontrarian losing my shirt? It’s precisely cause I didn’t listen to you that I sold in mid 2022 right after you predicted a melt up. Bought back in after the major crash at the end of 2022. No melt up or meltdown. You’ve been singing this tune since 2017 and even a broken clock will be right twice a day. If you have the right prediction and wrong timing, then your prediction may as well be wrong

[@blackhat965]

@@DaveHcontrarian keep being wrong then

[@blackhat965]

@@DaveHcontrarian they’ll only remember who keeps showing their face every 6 months shamelessly while wringing their hands explaining why their prediction never materialized.

[@timkopp9763]

I agree with him, however I think he still underestimates the ability to kick can down the road. $300t to $450t global debt (2027-2028) won’t be the end of the road. More like $2000-3000t in 2035-2050.

[@foodmonsterweightloss5886]

You may be right. However, I think China has reached the tipping point with the combination of too many factors to review here and likely will be the driving deflationary force that pushes the global economy into depression.

[@ManGo-mu5rd]

can you elaborate on you predicting the time periods with the projected debt? Global debt or USD-denominated debt?

[@tt3kgtvr4]

Why on earth is his face IN the camera??

[@issenvan1050]

druNkenmiller?

[@khaledishrich]

Sorry but Whatever David said It was the opposite I hope he becomes right this time!!!

[@moa3810]

Is that an accurate statement?

[@khaledishrich]

@moa3810 Well Not really accurate As I did not hear every point he made but off course he talked about something and happened but his talk about a meltup including silver to be 400$ in a year time is (sorry for that) just rubbish and he was saying it since 2021 at least and nothing happened?!

[@dsneill]

Natalie, I hope mr Hunter is wrong that’s a terrible future your generation will have to live through.

[@Ehffynniufrerthbbh]

Will he ask why American sanctions have caused countries to seek alternative currency???? LOL

[@App-tlyPut]

So... When you speak about cutting "obligation spending," the first thing that comes to mind for you is Social Security?? (Yet you're concerned about the destruction of the middle class?) How about taking a look at the military industrial complex money drain? How about looking at money "given away" to other countries, such as Isreal? How about the programs for illegals? Instead, you'd prefer to push our seniors farther into poverty? Really?

[@docdoc4526]

David is the best, his theses are so logic 👍🙏

[@nickjohns7254]

Buy more gold, sell your stocks, buy BTC. All great advice, NOT! Just buy index funds every time you can and quit listening to these gurus who are wrong 90% of the time.

[@Mightyflynn77]

David Cunter still wrong

[@ricardodinger869]

Lot of nonsense , keep saying spx 6000 in august, now it will be in october, he likes to talk

[@user-kc6iu6ke1s]

$32,000 profit sent to my portfolio each week, Mrs Gadner Judy pamela is amazing

[@WilsonReeves]

Expert Mr Gadner Judy pamela is an experienced trader on a certified broker, I've been working with her for years, Recently I bought a new.

[@garyseeseverything8615]

Ads are terrible here stay away

[@secretarypee]

Contattateci per maggiori informazioni

[@Bmx33606]

Thumbs down for the dumb bitcoin ads within this video.

[@nikolaskarakotas5117]

boomer doomer

[@nikolaskarakotas5117]

@@DaveHcontrarian it's the mindset not the age mate

[@gregpoumakis1761]

Too many run on, rambling questions

[@andyb8838]

Crypto is not "hard money." That's stealing a term from bullion. Find a new, creative way to categorize crypto. Also, you're doing a dis-service to your viewers to act like dollar cost average into crypto products is a smart savings, investing idea. I.e., your sponsors and commercials. Especially when we're on the edge of a cliff as David is outlining. You're sending two different messages. I believe in crypto long term but as we've recently seen it's performance is closely tied to the NASDAQ and so you can expect like volatility. Also, the recent government crack down on crypto i.e., FTX should inform the reasonable investor to stay away from crypto. It seems to me you're not taking David's message seriously. Unfortunate...

[@charlesmiller6281]

Gold bullion supply increases annually by about 2%. That’s what we call exponential growth. You could look it up. Also gold bullion is priced in futures markets where contracts for future delivery exceed actual supply by a factor of 50 or more. No one even knows, because it’s impossible to know how much gold there is- or where it is. Bitcoin supply by contrast increases at only 1.78% currently. The current rate will be cut in half next April, and halved again every four years until all 21m bitcoin are mined. Total bitcoin that can ever exist are thus mathematically limited to 21m. Every single one of which is recorded on the public ledger blockchain. Fully auditable, rehypothecation proof, immutable and immune from government manipulation and corruption, bitcoin is far harder money than gold. Gold is a relic. Bitcoin is the apex asset.

[@livinthedream7714]

Too MUCH ADVERTISING. UNSUBSCRIBED

[@sophiakoh5707]

This channel has too many ads. Natalie also doesn't have good facilitation skills..

[@user-wd3rj6wk7u]

Where on earth does he get this senseless forecast?!?

[@nds9777]

A Total BS er ..he has been luibg for years...gooe luck ¡