Where’s My Train: A PyMC Case Study | Allen B. Downey

Link to the presentation slides: www.tinyurl.co...
If you commute by subway, you might have noticed that you can use the number of waiting passengers to predict the time until the next train. If there are fewer passengers than usual, you just missed a train and might have to wait longer. If there are more than usual, it's been a while since the last train, and you expect one soon. But if there are many more than usual, there might be a disruption of service and a long wait!
In this case study, we'll use PyMC to model this scenario. Starting simple, we'll demonstrate a process for developing and testing models incrementally, present some less commonly used PyMC features, and show how a Bayesian model can replicate Bayesian thinking.
Resources
We will assume that webinar participants are familiar with basic PyMC models and distributions like Normal, Poisson, and Gamma.
If you are not familiar with PyMC, you can start with this chapter from Think Bayes, especially the World Cup Problem:
allendowney.gi...
Or you can run that chapter on Colab
colab.research...
💼 About the speaker:
Allen Downey is a Principal Data Scientist at PyMC Labs, professor emeritus at Olin College and the author of several books -- including Think Python, Think Bayes, and Probably Overthinking It -- and a blog about programming and data science. He received a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of California, Berkeley, and Bachelor's and Masters degrees from MIT.
🔗 Connect with Allen B. Downey:
👉 Linkedin: / allendowney
👉 Blog: www.allendowne...
👉 X: / allendowney
💼 About the Host:
Thomas Wiecki (Founder of PyMC Labs)
Dr. Thomas Wiecki is an author of PyMC, the leading platform for statistical data science. To help businesses solve some of their trickiest data science problems, he assembled a world-class team of Bayesian modelers and founded PyMC Labs -- the Bayesian consultancy. He did his PhD at Brown University studying cognitive neuroscience.
🔗 Connect with Thomas:
👉 Linkedin: / twiecki
👉 GitHub: github.com/twi...
👉 Twitter: / twiecki
👉 Website: www.pymc-labs....
twiecki.io/
🔗 Connecting with PyMC Labs:
🌐 Website: www.pymc-labs....
👥 LinkedIn: / pymc-labs
🐦 Twitter: / pymc_labs
🎥 KZbin: / pymclabs
🤝 Meetup: www.meetup.com...

[@jkzero]

Brilliant presentation Allen, I love this because it is the analysis that I do in my head on my daily commuting: always check the number of people at the platform to estimate waiting time. Since following Richard McElreath's lectures I cannot stop calling the well-behaved time-series at 17:48 "hairy caterpillars"

[@robbosmanymusings]

Lovely presentation. This has inspired me to make my own videos to explain some models I am working on.

[@CoreyAbshire]

Fun example and crystal clear explanation - thank you both!

[@Flavour_Dave]

superb talk! thank you!