Why Germany’s economy is much stronger than you think

[@MoneyMacro]

Get access to global coverage at an exclusive 50% discount at economist.com/moneymacro Further reading from the Economist (more pessimistic case and update about the fall of the government): 1. www.economist.com/business/2024/10/31/volkswagens-woes-illustrate-germanys-creeping-deindustrialisation 2. www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/24/angela-who-merkels-legacy-looks-increasingly-terrible 3. www.economist.com/europe/2024/11/07/germanys-fractious-coalition-falls-apart-and-how

[@toyotaprius79]

Richard Wolff would run rings around this

[@Madferreiro]

Turning into a pretzel

[@1966bluemax]

You look like Alfred the Great from the Last Kingdom

[@erichhugo1]

Economist is a shareholder capitalist mouthpiece

[@noahway13]

I like this guy. His answers are great--- short and to the point. I'm from the US, and the Native- Americans have a saying, (originating from when they were getting screwed over with worthless treaties full of legalese jargon, and rambling, flowery promises). They said, "It does not take many words to tell the truth."

[@kubapuchar7069]

As a Pole, I keep my fingers crossed for good fate of Germany economy. Germany is the biggest trading partner of Poland and (probably) the biggest investor in Poland. Sure, Poland can survive without Germany, but both countries will be better if both economies do well.

[@3komma141592653]

Poland has a lot of room to catch up, that is why they have big growth right now. But i agree, both countries need each other. But i feel Polands demographic problem is worse then Germany's. It got "fixed" a little by the Ukraine immigrants, but normally Poland's immigration is to low to fix it.

[@czolgistta]

Jeden z niewielu głosów rozsądku...

[@XY-uc1tw]

Poland is one of the reasons Germany's industry is failing. German fabric goes outside of Germany, like Poland and other countries, which misuse the EU for only their profits...

[@azelucy1798]

@@3komma141592653imigration doesnt fix demographics it makes it worse

[@Alexander-z6x]

The rundown of economists in 2012 was that during the times of 2022-2028 the economic growth of germany will slow down or come to a halt due to redistribution of energy production. This is broadly the fact as its happening rn. HOWEVER the same economists also said that the cutting off of oil will free up ALOT of capital from 2028-2030 onwards, truely unleashing its economy. Heres to hope

[@fleshreap]

This feels like a fairly optimistic take on Germany's future.

[@ToriZealot]

but entirely made up

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

@@ToriZealot ur a Tucker Carlson fan, no wonder you stating false stuff everywhere here

[@Dendarang]

It's the most realistic take yet. Germany's GDP growing by -0.3% one year and ~0% another year does not a collapse make. The reason everyone's seemingly shouting from the rooftops Germany is "collapsing" has nothing to do with economic reality of Germany and everything to do with economic reality of advertising space on the internet especially in the English language where everything has to be sensationalized to high hell and narratives, which started taking over sports discussions like a decade ago, have now taken over all other news as well. So once a narrative that sells well - like "Germany is collapsing" - takes hold it's very difficult to dislodge it because it's more profitable to keep it going.

[@Contractor48]

Extremely optimistic take. This is 100% pure copium. The world wasn’t as cutthroat competitive as it was back in 1990s nor Europeans had stranglehold over their colonies like before 1970s. Europe is extremely resource poor.

[@netero1682]

​@@Contractor48Good point, but the Germans are a very resilient people, they survived two world wars, even the Roman invasions. They may decline but they are one of those people that can rise again, many lately speak of Poland as the great European leader, but Poland has never been as outstanding a country in Europe as others, I bet more on Germany to be honest.

[@xelaxander]

A few notes from a young professional working in industry: Unfortunately the government problem is not so easy to solve. It currently looks like we‘ll get a CDU-SPD coalition. Both parties are pandering to (soon to be) retirees instead of investing in our future. The cost of housing problems are also a hidden wealth transfer from young to old. Although budgets are under pressure, we see plenty of work in the in automotive. Core strategic topics are still being invested in heavily, there’s just a stronger focus on value. There was a lot of excess hiring at least in IT of people with questionable qualifications, that companies are now trying to get rid of. But there’s by no means a complete bust of the labor market. If you have some runway, now would probably be a good time to start a business and profit off of market shifts.

[@indcredible7839]

If young people actually went out and voted, that wouldn't happen.

[@HybridHumaan]

Please don't take this personally, but what is "young professional working in industry" supposed to mean?

[@Colochoide]

Germany wouldn't have a problem with questionably qualified IT people if they were willing to pay market salaries for decent IT professionals. But the unions and German companies in general seem unable to grasp that good IT professionals shop for jobs globally.

[@arekkusub6877]

"questionably qualified IT people " LOL

[@robertmusil1107]

Vote AFD and stop complaining about getting f**ked by the same old parties over and over

[@Raniyanhunter]

Germany's citizens are quite interested in investing, which I believe contributes to the country's economy. A nation's economy tends to grow when its people are not impoverished. Having lived here for seven years, I've observed many people striving to invest their money, and I'm also making a move in that direction.

[@garnold-l5p]

As a German citizen, I agree that smart investing is essential, especially with the stock market performing well lately. I work with a financial advisor because I believe they have insights about the market that aren't publicly available, and it's been a great experience.

[@Mlanderos-t9e]

Right.. working with a financial advisor has been a game-changer for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that aligned perfectly with my risk tolerance and financial objectives. With their support, I've seen significant growth in my investments and gained confidence in my financial future.

[@Anessa-gibson]

Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one

[@Mlanderos-t9e]

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Judith Lynn Staufer” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

[@Anessa-gibson]

I just looked up her website on google and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I have sent her an email hope she gets back to me soon. Thanks

[@milhad.salihi]

As a someone who moved from the Balkans to Germany in 2020. let me give you a reality check. 20 years ago, if you were to ask anyone in the Balkans should you live and work in Germany, the answer was a resounding YES! Today, that is no longer the case. Rising living costs in Germany, with salaries that no longer match the conditions, have made Germany quite unappealing to almost everyone. I say almost, because the only people willing to try their luck here are the ones who are absolutely on the brink of poverty in their home countries. Those are not skilled workers that Germany needs. I am a software developer, and even with bonuses offered to me for recruiting someone to come and work here, I cannot find anyone willing to come anymore. IT people earn similar wages elsewhere, with significantly lower living costs. In fact, I know more IT people that went back to the Balkans, then people who came here in the last couple of years. Unfortunately, the future doesn't look that bright for Germany with it's current course.

[@JensPfaffe]

No. The skilled worker shortage is a lie at least in IT. They are Not offering good wages.

[@fahrradflucht]

So there are people currently in Germany, that have or would acquire the skills to work in IT, are currently choosing not to because of the wages? Because of that answer isn’t yes, just because a company would still be able to fill a position with higher wages doesn’t mean there isn’t an overall shortage.

[@julianshepherd2038]

IT is an exception in that AI just ate your job

[@stariyczedun]

@@matthias8582 even 50% of US IT salaries would be good. A senior software dev in Munich working for a local company can't afford to support a stay-home wife with 2 kids - it is messed up.

[@MrDael01]

​@@stariyczedun Munich is the most expensive place to live in the whole country 😂

[@stefankhoo1618]

@@stariyczedunThere you answered yourself, do you really expect you to support your wife and two kids on one salary? What kind of fantasy world are you living in? Tell your wife to go out working and put your kids in kindergarten. Your economic situation will improve dramatically trust me.

[@badshibari6707]

Just a reminder to everyone watching "the economy is doing well" or "the country is doing well" doesn't directly translate to "the majority of people who live in the country are doing well"

[@ToriZealot]

the people are not doing well + the economy is not doing well

[@SodaDjinn]

Likewise, remember that headlines like "AI will steal ALL jobs tomorrow" and "The economy is in shambles!" are sponsored by big corp to discourage you, the average Joe.

[@paulchen9145]

Yet then you have people here blatantly crying out BUT THE US IS DOING SO MUCH BETTER ECONOMICALLY THEN THE REST OF THE WORLD!!!! Well guess what high gdp doesn’t mean shit for the average Joe….

[@SK-kh2rs]

@@paulchen9145Americans have it better than most but cry the most

[@raaaaaaaaaam496]

Americans are very rich right now

[@AntiFurryJihad]

If You're economy can bounce back from Losing 2 major wars, Splitting your country into two then uniting after one side is in economic disaster, you can bounce back from any economic recession.

[@toyotaprius79]

You may want to consider how dollars are printed. Hate to pop your political bubble but China has been Germany's biggest export market for at least 15 years and it'll be very painful for Germany's existing trade infrastructure to go cold turkey, German cars (and frankly every western automaker excluding Hyundai) cannot face up to Chinese EV competitors which are more affordable in emerging markets like South America, Africa, Pakistan, SE Asia, etc etc

[@deezeed2817]

This isn't a "recession", The fundamental building block of German economic power is gone. There is nothing they can do about it

[@villiamfangy6205]

one thing though, it was murica that helped germany bounce back from ww2. Germany bounced back from ww1 because of the amount of raw materials they received from other countries.

[@chrisgeyer4002]

High birthrate and lots of young people helped fuel those recoveries. Germany is literally running out of young people to work now.

[@Apple_Inc.]

I think you have to go through some more detailed research rather than saying something specious. Let’s say the reasons why German success are A, B, and C. In some cases, they seemed to go through some severe drawbacks, but they don’t actually lose those factors. And, your inference is that, base on the history, they can thrive after whatever difficulty they faced, because they succeed the “toughest“ challenges. However, that argument is actually not true! I can make similar arguments too, Since Achilles never lose, and he is invulnerable, so I reasonably infer that a wound on his heel never dangers him. If a rather small change makes German lose some of their factors, A, B, C, to success, then it’s possible that the country founders because of this “little” change.

[@R.stiltskin]

Just remember Peter zeihan has NEVER been right about ANYTHING

[@MI-wc6nk]

haha exactly my thinking - if Peter predicted it you can bet it won't materialize

[@horridohobbies]

Zeihan has been totally wrong about China for many years. He's an ignorant jackass.

[@MathGPT]

Technically he predicted the Ukraine war, to the week

[@erickpalacios8904]

How long before? A week? Lol

[@Wankers001]

THIS. How anybody can follow that snakeoil salesman is beyond me. Yeah he touch upon topics that will become problems like demographics but where he totally fails is he hypothises from a state of vacuum aka the future is set in stone and nothing can deter it. which is totally wrong. Of course a country like e.g China will take counter measures to stabilize their low births or in this example Germany will bounce back. it will hurt but they will likely find a way

[@calc1657]

The problem with the prognosis of Germany excelling in a fragmented world economy is that the German exporters will still have to compete with the Chinese to dominate third country markets. Right now, for example, Chinese cars are making major inroads in Latin America.

[@lagrangewei]

that not even the main problem, the main problem is Germany is not a "3rd power" country. it is trap in the EU and does not have the ability to set an independent trade policies. and France is taking advantage of their influence in EU to basically screw Germany over with trade policies that does not favor Germany.

[@rioluna6058]

1 in every 4 new cars that are selling in my country are electric and 90 percent of those are byd . im from costa rica our electric vehicles have green license plates so is easy to spot them and when you check the brand : byd almost every time ... i have never seen any brand taking that ammount of market share in just 2 years . the great loser here were not asian companies like toyota or nissan since people here love toyotas they are quite reliable cars the losers were european brands .. THE SAME APPLIES TO CELLPHONES. huawei came out of nowhere and now every household has someone who uses huawei which by the way they are now call :"honor " is the same brand as huawei but they changed their names so sanctions dont affect them ... i dont like china what represents they lack of freedoms you know the drill , they have damage our ocean ecosystems BUT credit were credit is due BYD is crushing the competition here , not even that local sellers of the brand couldnt imagining how quickly people will buy them . while elon wasting time byd crushing them atleast in latinamerica , i dont remember the last time i saw a tesla but everytime i go out for a walk i spot hundreds of byd.

[@rioluna6058]

i forgot i remember a time were germany solar panels were a thing , well not anymore they gon copied by the chinnese counterparts and now those chinnese brands are selling really affordable solar panels ... i just think money and macro is too optimistic about germany , look i would have prefer a world were the chinnese goverment didnt have that much power cause like i said i just dont like them they have made so many bad things in my country for example they sell bad products counterfits in every local chinnese grocery store but again they are absolutely demolishing competetion in high tec stuff, so they sell you the counterfit and they also sell you good quality i think germans were too honorable to deal against the ccp of china..... they are still too naive ... i dont think this trend is gonna stop ..

[@theawe3485]

I am sorry but i am not buying that massive layoffs and factory shutdowns are good for the economy because now employers have bigger pool of talents and some of those talents can get bored and make a startup! Strong startups are created because of strong incentives. And growth comes from long term planning, automating/outsourcing work and attracting new highly qualified specialists from abroad. This is exact opposite of what's happening with Germany (and most EU countries)

[@julianshepherd2038]

China did it by educating a lot of scientists and engineers.

[@Neomadra]

Being unemployed as a highly skilled worker is quite an incentive I would say.

[@DiederikCA]

Agreed! You get a startup culture from encouraging risk-taking, low penalties for failure (like personal debt), and easy access to capital. That's what the US is good at: trying lots of different ideas, of which some succeed

[@stefanmiletic8062]

@@DiederikCA USA has something that is called venture capitalists. Germany does not. Even if you have a brilliant idea you will not have funds to make it happen. You can't borrow the money if you are out of your job. Rich people in Europe don't invest in new ideas they just want to invest in housing and maybe some manufacturing but startups and young talents not so much.

[@rogersiemund8236]

@@DiederikCA And exactly none of these prerequisites is in place in Germany. In contrary. In addition you extremely high and increasing energy prices, a bureaucratic nightmare and a tsunami of incoming new regulations from the EU every singel year. SurelyGermany will survive but in a painful decline with the once Great Britain as a role model.

[@GSC084]

You are overlooking a glaring problem of Germany, it is incapable of incorporating large numbers of high skilled non-German speakers in its workforce and society. Things were different with the earlier influx of unskilled workers, because they had an incentive to learn German even before arriving in the country while high skilled workers have options in other countries that are more accommodating.

[@kylejohnson6775]

"incapable" might be a strong word, but yeah it's not great. But I was just at the Ausländerbehörde yesterday and they had a document for me to sign in both German AND English! So, it's a known problem, and steps are being taken. Just, in that characteristically glacially slow german bureaucratic way.

[@iliketoast-q9b]

Actually more than half the refugees that came here in 2015 have a job now, which is actually a lot faster than the previeous refugee-crisis in the 90s. But yes, things could be massively improved still.

[@GSC084]

@@iliketoast-q9b that’s the thing, refugees have no choice and probably there will be some skilled workers among them at some point. But the type of workers Germany needs to attract (engineers) have choices.

[@GSC084]

@@kylejohnson6775 that is indeed a big win. I have a basic understanding of German due to high school, but since I moved here it’s been frustrating to communicate on more serious/official topics that I prefer to discuss in English. I can only imagine how difficult it is for people who have no background in German.

[@iliketoast-q9b]

@@GSC084 Germany has no shortage of engineers though. Mechanical engineering alone is among the most popular fields of study. There is a shortage of highly skilled workers willing to work for subpar wages.

[@christiansomeone9207]

I couldn‘t agree more. Having lived through the sick man of Europe debate early 2000 were everyone qualified Germany as doomed only to have a debate about the ‚insane productivity’ of Germany 10 years later that would tear the eurozone apart. Now another 10 years later things turned upside down again. Yes, Germany has significant problems, but they are all manageable. Most important is imho is reduction of bureaucracy and overhauling the tax system.

[@jackiechan8840]

UK can hold their hand on the way down.

[@julianshepherd2038]

Dramatic aren't you. Things are run down. It's happened before.

[@dcoughla681]

The UK will fall further than Germany.

[@chrisgeyer4002]

​@julianshepherd2038 there's nothing to indicate things will get better though. Quite the opposite actually.

[@jackiechan8840]

@julianshepherd2038 I know. Was only joking.

[@leslielemmon]

UK has a habit of slapping away ANY helping hand, delusionally whining over the faded dominion over the rest of the world.

[@johnstevens6865]

Mmmm - no mention of chronically high energy prices as far as the eye can see...

[@pablouribe1522]

Which is, if not, the biggest problem for energy intensive industry...

[@sparty1928]

Energy costs were always high in Germany. Ricght now, they are actually only average. Especially for industry.

[@meinnase]

Its always funny when john stevens are digging up bullshit they heard 20 years ago and committed to core memory. RN we have cheaper electricity than the Poles or the British and gas is back down to only slightly more expensive than 3 years ago. "Cheap russian gas" never meant free. It was like 10% cheaper max than norwegian or algerian or whatever.

[@The1KovacsAttila1]

@@meinnase I am living in Germany (Bavaria), my energy bill for a family of 4, is high like Snoop Dog after a gig night, especially when I factor in the modern household that I live in! (When I say “expensive” I mean expensive compared to the median salaries.) I pay 80 Euros a month with all LED lighs, heat pump system and all AAA rated electronics in the house. Since Germany is the 5th country I am living in, I think I have a good idea of how it compares to other countries: Compared to Hungary, electricity is more expensive here. Compared to Belgium, electricity is slightly more expensive here. Compared to the US, prices are super expensive in Germany. Compared to Romania, prices are more or less the same.

[@F-aber]

@@The1KovacsAttila1dann 80 Euros seem pretty cheap to me, I remember at the start of Covid I payed 110 for a two person flat, that did get adjusted down to 105 after a year but still

[@Throginit]

This whole video seems to be a massive cope. German industry relies on cheap energy which isn't readily available after shutting down their Nuclear power plants and the nordstream pipeline being blown up. Also importing cheap labor is very unpopular and a losing strategy if your population is in decline because the reasons behind the decline are not being addressed and will lead to civil unrest. All indications are pointing towards industrial stagnation and decline for Germany in the future.

[@stygian4011]

A country with no natural resources having over 20% of it's economy run on manufacturing is bonkers. Long term the service industry will grow.

[@MrJesterJam]

Ah, a sane comment in a sea of cope, thank you

[@exosproudmamabear558]

​​@@stygian4011Service industry is pretty unreliable when any kind of economical,political,enviromental,social shenanigans happen. Manufacturing is more reliable. But well they dont have any resources so it is gonna suck hard

[@Sion-No1]

And Don't forget German population is Very old and most "Immigrants" come to Germany either refugees or low skilled workers and they're mostly burden for The society.Immigrants that Germany needs Didn't come

[@nicke0b]

More cheap energy comes from neighbors that expanded power generation and hasn't mismanaged energy as badly as Germany. Energy prices are going down and will return to normal.

[@ArrowsNL]

Toyota group produces over 10 million cars every single year, making it the largest automaker. They do this with roughly 370 thousand employees. Volkswagen group produces less cars, with 670 thousand employees, almost double. Seems kind of strange that there isn't more being done to improve productivity, especially if there's a so called "massive skills shortage".

[@ToriZealot]

Nobody cares about the number of cars manufactured (that was only a VW fetish for the tim being)

[@ArrowsNL]

@@ToriZealot You missed the point: VW is inefficient.

[@bambusmode8902]

The comparison is not 1 to 1 accurate. A lot of VW employees are working in dealerships and repair shops and not in manufacturing. Toyota has almost all repair facilities and dealerships outsourced to small local companies working for them.

[@Bahamut998]

Maybe because Germany values the stability of it's country and workforce and employment level, rather than just pure productivity. Volkswagen was originally sponsored by Hitler, it became one of Germany's biggest employer. It's a National name and not just some company.

[@mattleistner313]

Comparing just the employees without considering the structure of the company is useless!

[@WeGoTSkiLL]

So the arguments for German economic growth are… 1) a skill shortage 2) too much red tape 3) a crumbling infrastructure 4) a collapsing government 5) and the demographic decline isn‘t apocalyptic, just bad Solid.

[@ToriZealot]

+ WW not so bad you can always recover

[@leonc4653]

+ just increasing immigration that's smooth tensions for the next democratic government to be pro immigration.

[@texasgermancowgirl]

Don’t worry Germans, America is about to follow this.

[@netero1682]

​@@leonc4653Germany continues to be a country where many plan to go to work, I think that if Germany has a very good immigration strategy, being selective with who they let in and who they don't, I think that immigration could help them a lot. But they should make changes in other obvious aspects.

[@Renderlesscharacter2454]

MUSLIM IMMIGRATION

[@b1walker]

Joeri, you've really laid out the best case scenario for Germany and that's to basically stave off collapse. A lot of things (domestically & internationally) would have to go right for this scenario to play out. I'm less sanguine (but not insane like Peter Zeihan).

[@robby12320]

Zeihan is always way too black and white.

[@Peter-bk4pz]

Fascinating analysis. American living in Spain here, and I have a lot of respect for the Germans. One thing I would want to ask you about is Germany's investment into fuel sources. They famously used to rely on Russian fossil fuels, but that has been effectively cut off. Will the German government transition into Green technology to keep the economic engine running?

[@merzto]

Germany is heavily invested in green energy and has days where it’s 100%. Russian fossil fuels have always only been a part of our energy.

[@timkey_4542]

There isn't munch of a skilled workers shortage. More a well paying jobs shortage. Two things Germany really needs is investment into the public infrastructure - there are 4,000 bridges which need immediate repair within the next two years - and a switch from an export focused economy to a more diversified economy with more focus on consumption like the US has. The latter however is kinda hard to achieve due to my first point abt the well paying jobs shortage and the first is rather hard to achieve because all our parties except for Greens and AFD (Idk the AFD's stance on this issue) are in favor of the "black zero" policy which means the government can't take on any debt (or only .35% of GDP as its enshrined in the constitution)

[@FrankusMankus]

Afd will halt mehr liberalismus und weniger staat. Sind also sehrrrr nah wirtschaftspolitisch bei der fdp

[@toyotaprius79]

It wouldn't be easy to repair the flaws +30 years of frivolous free market policies

[@mr.puppetreborn2355]

​@@toyotaprius79 "public infrastructure" is not owned by the private sector, the state and its institutions own the infrastructure. So blaming the free market for not fixing something they didnt even own in the first place is pretty stupid.

[@tiredkiris]

To be honest, at least the SPD and partially also the CDU are starting to see the need for a debt brake reform. You can only ignore experts for so long.

[@timkey_4542]

@@toyotaprius79 I agree but these are not the most prevailing problems. A return to real social market economy is however neccessary to secure long term growth. What I said above is neccessary to even get our country back on a growth trent

[@philippemarcil2004]

Excellent piece, I have been disappointed at how the slow down in Germany industrial production have been put as a big issue while in reality, when you sit back and look at the big picture, it is not a reason to panic.

[@bashizzle3737]

I'm not so sure that the next government will be better. If FDP manages to stay in parliament and is the chosen partner for the Union we are fucked because there will be 0 investment.

[@bbrod14]

Would note on the argument that the government has low debt and CAN invest in the future: Germany is overtaken by a quasi religious dogma around public debt. People will somehow complain about the infrastructure and somehow completely fail to make the connection that the debt brake is the main reason why investments can't be made (and ultimately why the governing coallition broke up).

[@0xCAFEF00D]

Sure, but surely that can't continue all the way down the drain through the pipe and into the water treatment plant.

[@tombe5791]

The illegal migration is the problem. I costs us billions and billions of Euros. Also, as sorry as I feel for the refugees, we can not take all of them.

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

industries like BASF need cheap energy. Completely ignored in this video.

[@markwithak2055]

He is a leftist troll payed by Soros probably

[@lv3609]

My opinion, Germany should move their industry (part or all) to Southern Europe to places where there is easy access to energy (from Africa, Middle East), take opportunity where land is cheap. Have the companies’ headquarters in Germany (thus increase tertiary sector employment). As this is EU, German youngsters who wish could still go work to industry in Southern Europe, although for sure they would have “less dirty job” and higher pay in Germany.

[@ThomasVWorm]

The times of cheap energy are over - not only in Germany. When we want to stop climate change, energy will become expensive. Those, who are able to deal with this fact first, will have a bright future.

[@ThomasVWorm]

​@@lv3609maybe we should think more european, which means in the sense of a european economy. The companies already do this on the common market. Our national economy is already the EU. Those, who still do not understand it are: - economists - politicians - population

[@TheHesseJames]

A country without energy ressources should not have an energy intensive industry like Chemicals or Aluminium. It just doesn't make sense. Produce it where energy is cheaper and buy the stuff instead of paying through your nose with subsidies.

[@TileBitan]

ngl seeing this straight up makes me doubt it. Just because it was resilient before it doesn't mean it will, just like those youtubers saying China will collapse and here it is still

[@KiffgrasConnaisseur]

It *is* collapsing. Quite literally.

[@aleattorium]

About sponsor: How funny it is, I was expecting ground news but never The Economist. And the brand reputation really helps, I hope the Economist sponsor more projects on this channel.

[@ToriZealot]

more nonsense, who needs that?

[@lesand5484]

Germany's current biggest problem is the lack of investment by the public sector. This makes it harder for the industry to get back up to speed, it makes it more difficult to increase productivity, it makes it more difficult to overcome infrastructural and energy problems. So, I like this analysis and I am so frustrated that so many Germans still believe in the "Schuldenbremse".

[@aldoushuxley5953]

Humans are not interchangeable, and Germany is horrible at actually attracting productive people, because it has a distinctive culture and language, which makes it harder to assimilate migrants. The people who came here since 2015 cost the german state A LOT more than they will ever pay in taxes, and their descendants will continue to be a burden on the state

[@MoonBerryShrimp]

2nd generation immigrants are indistinguishable from anyone else due to public schools. Germany will need the workers.

[@chrisgeyer4002]

Mass deportations are needed honestly

[@Hellon1832]

It’s your Problem now.

[@dirkboch128]

That's false, net overall they do not cost more. You are not applying an holistic view, beginner mistake.

[@iliketoast-q9b]

More than half the refugees that came here in 2015 have jobs now, which is a lot sooner than the previous wave of refugees that came to Germany in the 90s. So in total these people are a net-positive for gdp. You better get your facts straight before you spew racist nonsense like that.

[@noahway13]

I like this guy. His answers are great--- short and to the point. I'm from the US, and the Native- Americans have a saying, (originating from when they were getting screwed over with worthless treaties full of legalese jargon, and rambling, flowery promises). They said, "It does not take many words to tell the truth."

[@arthurh5707]

Never really understood the gloom and doom for German economy. Maybe a downturn while reconfiguring its economy, but there is no lack of capital or talent in the country.

[@stygian4011]

Bad news sell exceptionally well in Germany

[@ToriZealot]

How should German economy recover whithout cheap energy, raw materials or cheap labour? Indeed it will not. Please stop buying nonsense

[@A_New_Error]

​Energy prices have gone down quite a bit already and why should rawmaterials suddenly be a problem?@@ToriZealot

[@IsomerSoma]

​@@ToriZealot Energy prices are back to pre pandemic levels. In fact adjusted to inflation they are LOWER. Germany always wasn't able to match energy prices of the US. This is nothing new.

[@ToriZealot]

@@IsomerSoma The world is changing and Germany is loosing global market shares for years. There are multiple problems. I do not see that any problem is taken care of.

[@joseaparecidoconceicao7878]

No word about the hight price of energy, about the competitive chinese machiary industry, nor to the access to the before profitables and wasted chinese and russian markets.

[@arbohill]

The trouble with the "democracy working as it should" is that while yes, governments can and do collapse, nearly all parties here share the same neoliberal austerity core that under Merkel brought us to this exact situation. We have an insanely high level of infrastructure investment deficit, which a resurging economy would need to be fixed, yet most parties - the CDU chief among them - will ensure that we will invest nothing into fixing their mistakes.

[@abctutnichtweh1]

Problem is also that Parties willing to spend more, mostly want to spend in social Costs and subsidies, instead of infrastructure.Also Energy Market with the complete unnecessary shutdown of nuclear Power has seriously worsened the competitiveness of Germany under the CDU

[@ThomasVWorm]

​@@abctutnichtweh1you have to invest in social costs. The problem is rather that we play one off against the other. Social costs shrink when you invest in infrastructure, science and companies. Until then, you have to pay these costs, which stabilises demand and therefore companies. It is also important regarding demographic issues. You need to keep the situations of families stable. Instability has an effect upon how children perform at school. And this has a long term effect to the workforce of the future.

[@abctutnichtweh1]

@ThomasVWorm increased spending in jobless People and retirees wont improve infrastructure...........

[@n9o]

@@abctutnichtweh1 it is always surprising that voices from the conservative sides are asking for fiscal cuts on the money that jobless people get, while conservatives also tend to be the most frightened of crime rates. But the less the poor have, the higher the crime rates will be. Simply restricting money to beneath what it takes for survival is not helping people to find a job, nor being the best incentive to do so. Beyond that, the social spending can be seen as a subsidy, as the money directly gets spend for consumerism (and returns in tax form), while cutting taxes for the rich results in savings, not incrased spending. Also i think it is very short sighted to simply blame the nuclear power exit, when other european nations have very much the same price level. The spike in energy cost some years ago has been solely due to the high dependence on russian gas and oil, which play only a little part in the german energy mix for electricity. At this point nuclear would be a lot more expensive than any other electricity form, while also being far from clean.

[@abctutnichtweh1]

@@n9o you mistake me If you think iam "conservative". Iam simply stating an economic fact. Social payouts dont Change the structural disadvantages of Germany.

[@Lenin_enjoyer]

As a german, I can tell you this whole "skilled workers shortage" is completly overblown or completly nonexistent in pretty much all branches of the economy besides the medical branch including hospitals and retirement homes. Companies, especially in the trades, keep complaining about not finding enough young people to train, however they offer shit pay, shit working conditions and don't respect their employees. Not hard to guess why they do not get enough young people.

[@r3g1t]

You cannot make a comprehensive prediction about Germany's future, even just economically, without even mentioning the elephant in the room. Most people living here are starting to develop a pretty clear picture of where this is going, and let's just put it like this: All the issues analyzed in this video (as correct as the analyses may be), are symptoms of a much larger problem. Take a stroll through a western german city and ask yourself: "How much of this is going to be improved by having some more startup companies and innovation?". Also, all of the diagrams concerning population might be numerically correct but at least highly misleading: The amount of actual wealth and properity created on average by a million people in Germany in 20 years is going to be a tiny fraction of what it was 10 years ago or even today.

[@CleverSmart123]

Great fit with the sponsor. As a german I’m not optimistic the same parties that caused the mess will be in power soon again

[@blazer6708]

I don't know about the argument for new factories moving out of the country when most of these new factories are becoming more and more automated, are we sure factories aren't moving out because of the sky high electricity cost and bad business climate, rather then skill shortage? Why would VW open a new factory in the US and pay higher salaries, instead of staying in the Germany? Does the US really have that much bigger skilled labor pool? And won't this as a result pull even more skilled German labor into the US with the higher salaries causing even further skilled labor shortage?

[@isawrooka4]

The US certainly has a healthier skilled labor pool. That said, I don’t think a skills shortage is the only reason (though it is a reason) that some industry is leaving Germany. Germany is a real awful place to be as a business, only really held up by the fact that Germany is wealthy and highly educated. The actual business part of business is awful though, everything is regulated to the point that you can’t really do your job properly.

[@robymaru03]

@@isawrooka4 This guy also forget to mention, that all those feats were possible the world population was still growing, there was more and more demand. The landscape have changed, couples only own pets, and invest their money in stuck and other stuff. If everybody keep doing that we will head to the mother of all crashes.

[@blazer6708]

​@@isawrooka4 Yeah true, the skilled labor pool is healthier in the US, but how much of it is due to domestic vs immigrant skilled labor is what I was aiming for(though I didn't clarify). A lot of the highly educated people were already moving from EU to the US and this will just further exacerbate the problem.

[@jacobjones630]

@@blazer6708buddy the US almost 4X the population of germany. The education system is good in germany, but there is no shortage of talent in America

[@ja_u]

@@robymaru03 youre acting like Germany was providing the entire world with machines etc. in the last decades. That is far from reality and many countries have opportunities to grow in the future, meaning they will need machines. If thats India, Indonesia, Mexico or parts of Eastern Europe taking over China's role as the world's factory or Africa's further economic development. Growth in the past decades was centered around China and the US, thats soured to a degree but doesnt mean there arent other options

[@mikegreen5249]

Loving the clickbait title and thumbnail, slowly learning the tricks of youtube, it's great to see.

[@MoneyMacro]

With a heavy heart. This is a bit of an ironic play on the doom and gloom. But, yeah flames were added to a thumbnail. No way back.

[@tomlxyz]

I wonder if I would have clicked on the video if I didn't already know the channel

[@Umitorio]

What's to love? Another good channel has now succumbed to the clickbait fad. Next we'll see headlines like "French economy is f***d!". A shameful display

[@ChineseKiwi]

@@MoneyMacro 6:37 'inefficient (German) government' - LOL. Yep. I've had to email both the German and Dutch governments. The Dutch government said they would reply within 2 days and did. I'm still awaiting the German government response LOL

[@SirBalageG]

@Umitorio I read that in TW Shogun 2 voice, thanks for reminding me to boot it up

[@MrDemonshalo]

The arguments presented are the biggest cope I've ever heard, and I browse twitter frequently so that should tell you something...

[@gamingsu-sauer3530]

So your opinion that this is cope probably comes from twitter too…

[@MrDemonshalo]

@@gamingsu-sauer3530 No the cope comes from the fact that I migrated to Germany for work as "high skilled labor" and was all but forced out of the market due to the insane regulatory and tax structures. Saying that there are too many good companies rather than shortage of skilled labor is the exact type of sophistry that caused the problems to begin with. The same backwards logic that makes Germany, or most other European countries for that matter, unable to produce any unicorns relative to their GDP or market size.

[@Karl_der_Genosse]

@@MrDemonshalo Germany is not a liberal market economy like the US or Britain, but an architypal coordinated market economy that doesn't thrive on revolutionary but incremental innovation. They have the 5th biggest rate of patent applications to GDP (1374 Patents/100 Million GDP) , above the US (1170), but most of these patents concern innovating already existing products or production methods, which is not suitable for Unicorns. The high regulatory framework is also a result of the specific market structure. While it does make market entry prohibitively expensive and hard, it also guarantees high quality standards and stability, increasing resilience and fostering long-term growth. The tax structure is mostly explained by the rather extensive welfare-state which is a consensus among German politics (with few but notable exceptions) and therefor just reflects on the national attitude, which - as a foreigner - you should accept. I agree that being a foreign high skilled laborer in Germany is harder than in other countries, but that doesn' reflect on Germanys medium- to long-term development.

[@MrDemonshalo]

​@@Karl_der_Genosse I wrote a long comment but it got deleted so you'll have to excuse the short reply this time around. I dont disagree with your description of "how things came to be". What I am disagreeing with is the ideas presented in the video. It all rests on your expectations of what "good development prospects look like". The devil is always in the details. you compared patents on a per GDP basis. You can **ALWAYS** find some way to slice the data to make anything sound good. If Germany was so good at tech and development, then why is it that the world's entire technological development rests on China & the US? This is what I mean by sophistry. I can make similar arguments to make Zimbabwe look amazing. What all of these "assessments" seem to forget is 1 thing, opportunity cost! Ask yourself this: if you have 10M dollars to invest, WHY would you invest it in Germany over any other place on the planet? What is compelling about the German economy more so than any other place? where is the edge? If you can't answer that then I don't see how you can make the case that the German economy will have good long term development.

[@n9o]

@@MrDemonshalo While you blame taxes as a young worker trying to make big money, a large majority of the citizens benefit from the welfare state, especially young families with low salaries. It's a social contract. Why invest in germany despite high taxes? Geography, infrastructure (logistics), dense availability of high skilled and specialized workers, little risk of natural disasters, good connection to the DACH region that is the largest group of consumers in europe and more

[@TheDotBot]

Well that was a refreshing change! Seriously though, this isn't the first time Germany has faced collapse and walked away shrugging, that was the oil crisis in the 70s that hit Germany especially hard. Some of the problems were similar, such as VW losing the plot as nobody wanted ugly back-engined "nose bears" anymore and the management refusing to innovate until it was almost too late. Also heavy unemployment, end of the Economic Miracle, social unrest that made the current situation look tame… other countries didn't fare so well, UK for example. I disagree that the govt will have that much influence on this. Govt influence in a free market is kinda that, not much unless it goes completely nuts, and modern German govts aren't known for doing that. The govt doesn't build cars and employ millions of people (at least not in the productive economy).

[@matthiasknutzen6061]

Shutting down 170TWh of nuclear power before coal, existing nuclear is much cheaper than coal, was really stupid.

[@domtweed7323]

Yeah. They need to understand the 2nd law of thermodynamics: You can't do work (i.e. any economic activity) without energy. Less energy = less economic output. I have no problem with renewables, but if the Germans want to rely entirely on them they'll need to massively scale-up the installations.

[@lv3609]

Trump is ripping Paris accord, China and India are unwilling to do the necessary to lower emissions: if everyone is doing nothing and actually denying, What Is The Issue with Coal morally then? do note, coal can be extracted in most of North Europe, it is a Local resource

[@___________________________._]

Nuclear power production was negligible when it was taken off the grid. I agree though, that we should have taken down coal plants before taking down nuclear facilities, but it is what it is. Net exports of power have even increased after the nuclear shut down.

[@ToriZealot]

@@___________________________._ more propaganda, you want de-industrialization? just say it.

[@domtweed7323]

@___________________________._ It wasn't though. Germany had 8GW of well run, brilliantly well maintained nuclear power plants. Adjusting for capacity factors, that's equivalent to 24GW of German wind capacity, or 80GW of German solar capacity (good nuclear has a capacity factor around 90%, wind is 30% and solar around 10% in Germany). Germany had enough nuclear to power a small country, it was a really large loss.

[@perfectlycontent64]

Great video love the more nuanced take and your sponsor too.

[@Greenock]

Love the new format, keep up the good work.

[@AltIng9154]

Yes, I totally agree! We have no real problems! We soak in Ukrainians now, skilled people, the lack of skilled persons will be solved soon! We have a competitive environment! Persons who are not able to compete will not last for long! And thank you Brits, you delivered us English talking Poles. Poles are amazingly talented to learn German, they almost all can, if they want, and your Nordic Esperanto is a child's game for them! 😀What not to want! By the way, recently I heard English voices, ... construction workers, ... .

[@robymaru03]

Your video really remind me of the dog meme with the house on fire "THIS IS FINE", as an economist you should know this golden rule that “Past performance is not indicative of future results”, things are really different this time around just like a young kid can easily recover from a big fall and some broken bone, for an elderly it could take him to the grave, an aging population complicate everything for any economy.

[@temporelucemtenebris5313]

elderly - meh. brown and black - 100%.

[@tautvydasbertasius2375]

I sometimes wonder if the UK is in a similar situation, where the headlines might be very negative, but in reality things may not be as bad as the media want us to think. Perhaps an idea for a video?

[@stygian4011]

Germans love negative news and eat that stuff like nothing else. It's sad but many don't seem to look at anything positive anymore

[@ramirofarto4008]

Not sure about your evaluation of the german government. I think it was much better then its reputation. I also think that the future of Germany is much better than this news cycle will tell you :)

[@ThomasVWorm]

It was. It had to face many strong crisises. You look bad even when you perform good, since the people do not like the situation. Esp. the loss of the supply of gas could have caused much bigger problems. We never had a breakdown of electricity.

[@abctutnichtweh1]

​@@ThomasVWormthats Not because the current Gouvernements l, but previous Administrations....... Energy Security has decreased significantly since 2016

[@___________________________._]

I agree. There have been many problems with the Ampel, but all in all it has been a rather good government. Most of the media bashing was unjustified. It had had developed into a sport of some sorts. Though, I am not so sure about the bright future part. I REALLLY don't want Fotzenfritz Merz as Chancellor.

[@gisbertvonromberg2227]

The crisis in Germany is not a crisis of the german companies. They do well, because they make their business across the globe. No, it's a crisis of investitions in german labor. The german companies now invest everywhere, but not in Germany. And foreign companies reduced their level of new investitions in Germany massively. This caused a reduction of real wages of german people, which is the core of the current crisis.

[@witthyhumpleton3514]

One thing to mention is that the German discourse likes to focus on a lack of skilled workers, but this isn't really true. There are around 5.7 million people in Germany who are either looking for work, or who are only working part time and would like to perform in a full time job, now granted not all of them will possess necessary qualifications, but the number of vacancies that could be filled immediately only runs up to around 1.3 million. Even if all people were qualified and living within reasonable distance of those jobs, Gerrmany would still have a sizable population of unemployed or underemployed citizens. The economy is growing weakly because the government is quite reluctant to spend, compared to other countries like the US and France. Hence the argument that there is a shortage of skilled workers is a little bit of a myth, it's not completely untrue as certain fields face problems, like nursing, but they face the same issues as in the UK, low wages and tough working conditions making them much more unattractive, same with teachers. It is more so a lacking investment in those jobs than a lack of people, even though the result is that yes, some professions do lack professionals. Edit. I also want to make a note that, without trying to get into a political argument, the likely incoming government has strongly endorsed fiscal responsibility, slashing social spending and keeping the limit on new debt intact. It remains to be seen if they turn more pragmatic when in office, it is at least somewhat likely as the will not be able to finance the necessary expenses for the military without bypassing the so called debt-brake.

[@rho992]

Its not spending, its about insane amount of regulations.

[@riton349]

@@rho992 It's both. - Lack of reforms - Sleeping on reforms - No will from politicians to spend and spend efficiently

[@witthyhumpleton3514]

@@rho992 It's definitely spending, France has a similarly funny amount of regulations and is growing much better, because they properly invested in a stimulus when the private economy was flagging. Germany has also experienced times of growth with it's archaic bureaucracy before. Even the issue of regulations could have been reduced by spending properly, if digitalisation had been backed with some proper money, a lot of processes would now simply be done via a website or app, streamlining the process significantly. It's not the insane amount of regulation, it's spending.

[@joansparky4439]

_"The economy is growing weakly because the government is quite reluctant to spend,"_ Why does a government need to deficit spend for a capitalist economy to 'just do it's effing job'? What is the logic there please?

[@witthyhumpleton3514]

@@joansparky4439 Well I can give 2 explanations for it, the first is very simple, money is always created via borrowing. The very first Euro spent in any European economy exists because someone took on debt to create that Euro. The government doesn't "earn money to spend it" it "spends money, then earns it back via tax" so any economy, capitalist or not needs borrowing, since money wouldn't exist without borrowing. You can also imagine it this way, if government debt reached 0, there would be virtually no money, safe for the parts that exist because of private borrowing. Private borrowing is always controlled by banks, and by extension the central bank though, so even this money only exists because the government allows for borrowing of this kind. The second explanation is about deficit spending specifically. The way macroeconomics works is that there are actors which create money, usually these are states that in turn sanction a central bank, who then allows for private banks in the economy. Private actors, so companies or individuals living in a state, need to earn money before they can spend it when they act with in an economy and use it's currency. So a company would either need to make a profit, attract investors, or find a bank willing to grant a loan. This means if consumer spending is low, there is less profit to invest again, and projections for future profit are lowered, leading to a spiral in which private companies become reluctant to invest. This also means a downturn for people working, so less money in the hands of individuals, reducing their power to buy things, you see where I'm going with this. The government doesn't have that problem, because the government also takes on debt, but it takes it's debt from the central bank, which is government owned, the state is essentially lending itself money, this is done for bookkeeping purposes, because for every positive balance, you need to have a negative balance somewhere else. Obviously the government is never going to knock on it's own door and declare itself bankrupt, hence it can indefinitely keep up debt in it's own currency, because it can always just issue new debt to pay for old bonds, the limiting factor to this is the productive capacity of a country. When a country issues a lot of money and then pumps it into the hands of private individuals, it can become inflationary, because all of a sudden everyone has more money, but there aren't actually many more things being produced, so prices rise since the demand can't be met. However, if you have many people who cannot find a job, or companies who are producing and selling less goods than they could, there isn't an issue, the new money would create new production and people with work, earning money they can spend, this way you would not have an issue with inflation. You can read about the extending of debt on most sites of important and central banks. This process is called "Rolling over debt" and is a common practice, even for a 100 years a government can issue it's own debt to whatever levels it wants, the only thing that can stop this process is if the government were to break down due to war or revolution. This means it doesn't face any pressure to deficit spend, when the economy is not going well, it can take on massive amounts of debt to spend on the economy, so that private interests can have certainty in their investments because the government is offering contracts and citizens have more money in their pockets to buy products. Now, you might ask "Why would you keep a private economy if it's this stupid?" well political decisions, lots of people are used to this type economy so they don't want to change from a system they know to another. But I won't ramble about it, the comment is long enough, I hope the explanation was helpful though.

[@Dramaican88]

Counter arguments: 1. Your skills shortage argument that skilled workers from VW will go to work to other industrial giants or start ups that are not able to find skilled workers is based on the assumption that other companies are doing amazingly and don't have the same issues VW has, which is mainly losing to EV technology competition from China and extremely high energy prices. So highly skilled workers laid off from a VW factory, can't just get hired in a battery and software tech company in Germany and given how VW is doing, what are the indicators that BMW is doing better and willing to increase their workforce with so much uncertainty for the future of the industry? 2. Again quite an assumption that India will buy German equipment instead of Chinese equipment for example for EV's as currently battery tech in China is better. Also German exports are less competitive now due to the high energy costs and inflation and you can't rely solely on 30 year old reputation for the success of your exports. 3. Changing government does not easily change energy prices, does not magically make your battery tech better than China's and most importantly does not create magically tech companies in Germany that can be at the level of Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAi etc. 4. It is manageable, but currently due to the cost of living crisis and number 3, it does not seem to be managed towards a good direction. 5. Why is it likely to recover as well? You just said for number 2 that India, Vietnam and Hungary will become the next factories of the world and will compete with Germany on the manufacturing of goods, so how is it likely to recover with more competitors than before and not lose even more? BYD battery tech is good already, but if Vietnam's VinFast EVs become competitive with German EVs, I don't understand how German industry will recover and not lose market share to both competitors...

[@grandmastersreaction1267]

The answer to the question in the headline is always “No”.

[@hermann5347]

As a german I just hope the current fear about trump and the recession may trigger some much needed reforms. Once we are out of it, we should be fine.

[@kushalvora7682]

I don't think german economy will collapse but it might transition from manufacturing to service based. As the world moves more towards solar energy, near equator and southern countries would have much cheaper energy cost than northern countries.

[@ToriZealot]

Yeah a nation of cleaners and hair dressers. What a great future.

[@jagolago-bob]

That will be even worse for the country. German service is terrible.

[@quinto190]

@@jagolago-bob I disagree on that one. People are always friendly in the shops in the region where I live. There are others, where this isn't the case, though. Service in large cities seems to be less friendly, people are more in stress there.

[@FunkyDouch3000]

ah, people who don't understand how energy systems work. how cute. Let's just say that wind and solar don't deliver what we need them to, and leave it at that. The functioning and demands of our energy grids is an interesting and critically important rabitthole to dig into a little bit if you want to understand in particular Europe's trajectory in the coming years.

[@fredaap]

You are not as good as you think when you are on top, and you are not as bad as you think when you are down. And this also applies for countries. Great video!

[@tsc416]

It's almost as if humans are able to adapt their societies and government structures to solve the problems they face instead of being a static being incapable of change.

[@Jose04537]

There is no "workers shortage", it's a wage shortage.

[@thegreatdane3627]

the key word here is "skilled" workers. It doesn't matter how many unemployed people there are, if they don't have the right skills. If you need a specific kind of welder, then you can't just hire someone without that skill. Sure you could raise wages, but you would just attract workers from another company and move the shortage to someone else.

[@TheGreenguard]

Not going to mention the German electrical price doubling or that the gas prices tripled and that there is no easy fix? Energy kinda important especially for a manufacturing nation.

[@ToriZealot]

Nah, just ignore the facts, everything will be fine

[@cbruegg]

The electricity price has been back to normal levels for a while.

[@olska9498]

@@ToriZealot It's actually you who ignore the facts and repeat memes you read on the internet. The gas prices now are actually lower than before the crisis. In the longterm, the LNG gas costs 0.01€ more per kwh than the gas supplied per pipeline, so this is not a problem.

[@mr.fantastic7756]

​@@olska9498and WHY is that? Because it is heavily subsidized by the government, running debt is no big deal?

[@calin6327]

No?​@@mr.fantastic7756

[@chitorixvettel9204]

2:31 I think you’re missing out that the problem with people losing their jobs in the automotive Industry is that they are getting payed a LOT of money for their “simple” job, compared to similar jobs in smaller branches. Yes, they will ultimately find another job but with the cost of significantly lower wages. Which in return will reduce the flow of cash in the economic cycle, which will lead to slower growth.

[@guffmam6995]

That was a lot of Copium. Here's a tip pretty much every Western country is complaining about a "skills shortage" its not a sign of a booming economy its just businesses wanting skilled workers for low pay and having a tantrum when it doesnt happen. Its probably more a sign of low productivity growth.

[@erickentroller4132]

What you say about well functioning democracy is absolutely right in my opinion. Government collapses and the rise of alternative parties are a sign that the people are not satisfied with the performance of the government. They need that lesson so that they can reform and become more effective for their population from time to time. It's what keeps democracy fresh and healthy.

[@Treyrizer]

Important things to note. 1.) Germany's Austerity is killing the economy...its underinvestment in public infrastructure is causing a huge economic decline 2.) Germany being a highly export oriented economy usually requires suppressing wages to keep imports cheap which it has done through collective bargaining agreements. If Germany were to focus more on growing its service sector which prioritizes more consumption and higher wage growth this issue would be solved. 3.) Its digitalization crisis is making things worse

[@mvdp3784]

Infrastructure and digitization are problems Germans can solve. People are way too negative.

[@zemm9003]

Consumption reduces the potential growth long term. It depresses the savings rate which is the most important indicator of long term prosperity. That's why, assuming you cannot print money, economic prosperity is associated with trade surplus that go into reserves.

[@duartesilva7907]

How low are German wages compared to other Western European ones?

[@astaroth0316]

Don't know, I would never migrate to Germany, salaries are lower for Engineering positions and taxes are crazy high. Myself and other engineers would love to move to the US for salaries way higher than here in Mexico, but surprisingly engineering salaries in Germany are almost equal than here, and actually lower in places like Spanish. Europe is in frank decline.

[@LA97Luis]

Please don't come stay in your narco state.

[@ActionAlligator]

Salaries are also determined by supply/demand. Lower salaries doesn't necessarily mean 'Europe is in decline', it can mean that there are enough engineers in Germany such that competition occurs between job seekers rather than employers, hence employers can offer lower salaries and still maintain a full workforce; likewise, in places like USA, Mexico, and.. 'Spanish'? Spain?, they may have Engineer shortages, which pushes competition between employers rather than job seekers, hence much higher salaries offered because job seekers have more choice on where they'd rather work. And that's just one potential consideration, there are probably many, many more factors to consider before jumping to "decline" drums. If Germany is declining because of demographics, then every country in the world is basically in that boat except those of Africa and some other pockets in the middle east and Asia.

[@windygreychannel]

Well...but we have free education, affordable healthcare, better quality food at lower praises. 20-30 vacation days (sick days are apart of them), and it is not exactly expected workers to make long hours at work just because. I think Europe is still pretty much fine.

[@Charlie43348]

Coming from a Mexican desperate to enter the US... Lol. German salaries equal to Mexican ones and lower than Spain?? What drugs have you been sniffing

[@quinto190]

The US also has much higher costs of living there. Ok, Germany also has some expensive cities (Munich).

[@uncanalmenor]

Most Europeans have been so comfy for the last 70 years that they confuse set backs with collapse.

[@msdoom2k]

My opinion exactly. Greeting from Austria 🎉

[@bobi7152]

100%, especially in the West

[@jojoxoxo-x5c]

As a greek living in western Europe, I agree

[@Alexander-z6x]

The rundown of economists in 2012 was that during the times of 2022-2028 the economic growth of germany will slow down or come to a halt due to redistribution of energy production. This is broadly the fact as its happening rn. HOWEVER the same economists also said that the cutting off of oil will free up ALOT of capital from 2028-2030 onwards, truely unleashing its economy. Heres to hope

[@jameskamotho7513]

​​@@Alexander-z6xWhat does "cutting off of oil"even mean?

[@spxdesu]

Bro really forgot the ongoing energy crisis and it's resulting costs for production and the heavy taxation if companies and citizens. Germany is rich but Germans are getting poorer and poorer. Germany needs a dramatic shift in politics or it will continue to decline slowly.

[@ezvak]

Germany has faced serious economic crises in the past, but has often been able to emerge from these crises with strong reforms and continue to grow. While the current challenges are deep, past experiences show that Germany has the capacity to overcome these difficulties

[@yucelmutlusoy]

Germany's economic prosperity were based on two things, 1) ability to produced globally desired/demanded products 2) strong exports. The problem is most German products are not considered as "cool" or "best in class" anymore or they have much steeper competition. Also there is definitely "less demand" for their existing products. However, I like your optimistic view and I hope things turn around very quickly.

[@jbdbuilders01]

Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them. People prefer to spend money on liabilities,, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable.

[@marie-louiseleroux828]

You are so correct! Save, invest and spend for necessities and a few small luxuries relatives to one's total assets ratio.

[@thihanhphan7777]

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[@chandraprakashpanday6244]

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[@mdionise]

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[@mdionise]

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[@jjl3530]

I live in Munich and problem is I’m high skilled some points to touch upon: companies do not hire - I don’t underhand. There are more than 2 Million unemployed Germans. This isn’t making sense with reality in the ground

[@MMartec]

Well explained.. I'm quite confident that Germany will succeed as always. ..indeed the EU as a whole is far more resilient as many people think 😉

[@marklynch8781]

The three things that I think would help the German economy, improve quality, cut prices and avoid those over modern design changes that serve no purpose.

[@M43782]

The question is not if Germany's economy will collapse, the question is if German economy will experience similar, long stagnation as the UK after Brexit.

[@michaelrenper796]

Oh no, please don't compare us with the Brit, that' outright insulting. Anybody, but not the Brits.

[@paxundpeace9970]

​@@michaelrenper796He has not been that wrong to be frankly. In the past few years germany and the UK had been both close to stagnation at 0% growth. Germany being hit harder by the war in Ukraine and energy prices. Trade war and slow transformation to electric cars being another issue. VW is not the only car maker struggling. Stallantis (Fiat Chrysler Ram Dodge Citroen PSA Opel) has problems selling its electric models and slow sales for combustion models. Ford is having similar issues selling it's electric cars and is cutting stuff in Germany too.

[@Ganymede559]

Yes, because Germany is in a double recession.

[@azelucy1798]

@@michaelrenper796hehheheh bre

[@redamarzouk]

Loved watching your channel for the non-biased approach, but man, this one really missed the mark. I really had to double-check my information. So the two main arguments are that Germany will benefit from fragmentation and will sell machinery to the next "factory of the world." However, you didn’t address two critical issues: 1. U.S. Tariffs: With Trump back in office and vowing to turn the U.S. into a tariff nation, even targeting EU companies (albeit less than China), wouldn’t this significantly limit Germany’s ability to benefit from fragmentation, especially in one of its largest export markets? (accroding to the financial times, there will be a 15% reduction in German exports to the U.S) 2. China’s Machinery Competition: Emerging industrial hubs like India and Vietnam might find it cheaper and more convenient to source machinery from China rather than Germany. Plus, fragmentation could favor trade within their bloc, making them less reliant on Western imports altogether. It feels like these challenges should have been part of the discussion.

[@termitreter6545]

Those are challenges, tho IIRC Trumps first presidency failed to curb imports at a larger scale. China also got everything but a healthy economy, they lack exactly the flexibility of western economies. The chinese government is trying to keep the economy running by producing insane amounts of wares that people dont really want. Theyre flooding the market with stuff, which is dropping prices and part of why theres now much more aggressive tariffs on chinese goods. I think its the point of the video to show positives, and point out why the doomsaying is getting ridiculous. If the german economy cant hold up, then what countries economy can?

[@Biophytum]

as a German I can say that this video is a total waste of time. It doesn't feature Germanies real problems.

[@sparty1928]

It does, demographics, underinvestment in infrastructure, lack of innovative new companies. But like him, I am quite optimistic.

[@SirBalageG]

Germany’s biggest problem is that there’ll be sooner a 20th round for toilet paper acquisition for the third floor toilet then actual decisions in any important matter. Not to mention the coalition with Scholz became the laughing stock on the whole continent. Angela Merkel should really write a book on “How to ruin Paradise and make a hellhole in 16 years” though I’m almost certain she was a russian spy

[@SamFlightlevel49]

Ja genau, immer jeden Zeichen der Optimismus und Komplimente an der eigenen Wirtschaft ablehnen. Wie wäre es mit etwas Optimismus? Uns würde es viel besser gehen, wenn wir etwas mehr davon haben 😉

[@SodaDjinn]

Yeah but that's more because you're German rather than the video doing anything wrong. We're hopelessly pessimistic people.

[@greentoby26]

Does "real problems" mean brown people by chance?

[@ALFarrell-kv6ok]

I have 100% confidence that Germany will be back soon. The country has all of the ingredients for recovery. Stability, democracy, human rights and freedom. And advanced technology and science, a highly-educated population, a great infrastrucure, and a huge market on its doorstep across Europe and further afield as well.

[@Alexander-z6x]

The rundown of economists in 2012 was that during the times of 2022-2028 the economic growth of germany will slow down or come to a halt due to redistribution of energy production. This is broadly the fact as its happening rn. HOWEVER the same economists also said that the cutting off of oil will free up ALOT of capital from 2028-2030 onwards, truely unleashing its economy. Heres to hope

[@mvdp3784]

Nice, this is in line with dependency on coal, gas and oil significantly decreasing in the EU over the coming two decades.

[@Alexander-z6x]

@mvdp3784 and the last 2 aswell, although its obv wildly unpopular across the nations participating.

[@xXdnerstxleXx]

Alright, german economist here. No the economy is absolutely not fine. What we are seeing is the tip off the iceberg. The layoffs are worse than in the 2008 crisis. Consumtion has been down the drain for a few years. No consmption, no sales, declining production and so on and so on. Typical deflationary spiral while at the same time having inflation due to money printing. It a complete and utter disaster.

[@user-et6cr6qd8v]

Und ihr werdet wieder die cdu wählen die sämtliche probleme verursacht hat....nicht das die ampel besser wäre

[@Qefx]

Also most complex economy and diversified: Most stuff is made for cars (including colors, chemicals etc) lol

[@jontalbot1]

I am a sympathetic Brit. How do think things can improve?

[@SawChaser]

"Having inflation due to money printing" yeah, you are not a real economist

[@lesand5484]

Printing money is literally a myth that doesn't lead to inflation. If you believe in monetarism, it's no surprise that your analysis contradicts itself. There is a lack of investment in Germany - I think we can both agree on that. There is also a lack of consumption. And what could change that? More investment by the state to increase investment in private sector and increase consumption.

[@edisonyi1188]

This is great. We need more people to counter alarmist rhetorics

[@Vortid]

Hi, I really like your videos, no nonsense and well researched and also referenced. I do not have a degree in economics, only 'general university level educated', so some things sound very simplified to me, but maybe they are fine in the economic discourse. Good example is in this video, you say it would be better (or at least not a big loss) if a company moves production away from Germany, given that the country lacks skilled workers, and the company moving frees up some workers. But a) is it so easy to assimilate skilled workers elsewhere? Skills might be very specific to a company's production. And they might have to move far away, maybe they don't do that, or it is a very slow process. b) Isn't it simplified to look at a country as a very homogenous entity? A region in germany probably is fairly independent, and if, say, all industry abandons the south, maybe the south ends up very poor. And a while the country might not worry too much about that, the region should maybe fight tooth and nail to retain its industry. Again thanks for good content. :)

[@junkahoolik]

the first two are simply reframings of the problem. but there's an issue with that... if you just reframe the way you look at the problem without doing/having to do anything, the problem is still there

[@useyourbrain1232]

No more germoney

[@taylorfredrickson7750]

Completely anecdotal but part of the lack of startups could be high taxes. A German friend moved his startup from Germany to UAE because German taxes were so high. He was paying about 50% of his income. He pays 0% on anything less than 100k in UAE. If you are in ecommerce, SaaS, or similar there is no incentive to start a company there.

[@arekkusub6877]

Germany is for sure going down the river, there aren't enough young people, a lot of unqualified foreigners. The taxes are stellar high and salaries low. Germany exports a lot of goods because the salaries are very competitive (low compared to the high efficiency). There is a sort of crazy federal law, which forbids the government to borrow the money to invest in the infrastructure and education. All state agencies are underfinanced. I earn 7K brutto and receive only like 4K neto. Small apartment in a big city costs like 1.5-2K Euro etc. I can hardly imagine how the life with an average salary and children might look like.

[@isawrooka4]

Unless you live in Munich you don’t pay that for a small apartment. We live in a nice 65sqm apt in a pricier city in NRW and pay 1000€ warm. Contract is only 3 years old, so it is not an old contract either. We considered moving to a slightly bigger apartment and found that 80sqm with 3 rooms would be 1200ish per month warm.

[@stygian4011]

Maybe look for an apartment that isn't located in the most popular cities?

[@arekkusub6877]

@@isawrooka4 Munich, Hamburg, Berlin, Stuttgart usw.

[@arekkusub6877]

@@stygian4011 Sure I could move to Bulgaria and do the home office from there

[@azelucy1798]

Frankfurt 1000 euros warm mite normal salary 2000 neto plus 200 groceries and other stuff at the end you have like 500 euros for myself if i had kids i would be in debt😢

[@nonnoyobisnis8705]

Germany strooong! Currently industry (VW, Thyssen etc.) are wilfully tanking the sentiment in Germany in order to make way for Kanzler Merz and to prevent Kanzler Habeck. Same thing happened in 1999. The industry instituted a hiring freeze, sentiment went way down and Schröder became chancellor. In his first year he lowered the top tax rate from 53 to 42% and corporate taxcfrom 25 to 15%. He also midwifed the Hartz laws. Not a bad deal for the rich and industry.

[@Jacques-vh4mu]

If you are skill worker, you lost job, you won’t be able to easily find a new job because small to medium size firms don’t have the capital to hire new labor

[@tomv7986]

The problem is that sales are down and Germany has become less competitive due to sky high energy prices. Germany is reluctant to invest. They prefer economic decline over potentially higher inflation. They might get the latter anyways.

[@KohlieVarak]

While it is nice to hear some voices on the more positive side of things and I also thought about it in that way more often than not, I have to think these projections are too optimistic this time. Covid and the Ukraine war made it clear that the way Germany or rather its political cast and people go about things is utterly wrong and foolish. On one hand Germany is the country of philosophers and thinkers and Germans like Emmanuel Kant are the masterminds behind the "responsible and enlightened citizen" who thinks for himself and makes educated decisions for the individual and society as a greater entity, on the other hand the general public in Germany is incredibly gullible, stubborn and votes for politicians who promise a quick buck of pention rather than fixing the pention crisis through their vote, and blaming young people below 40 to not have enough children. Next problem are said politicians. Complacent, negligent in pointing out actual problems and therefore irresponsible and more concerned with being reelected/the needs of their biggest voter base (elderly people), instead of fixing said pention crisis, investing in infrastrucre, education, the military etc. the list has no end! These too underlying caveats of German society paired with a mentality of being tied up, begrudgingly looking down on innovations and "new things" and in some cases quite unfriendly towards foreigners, lead to a country without any perspective in transforming its economic make up to a more modern kind of economy, or propping up its workforce in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, there are barely any politicians with an actual vision of the next 30 years or basic understanding of certain economic basic concepts that, which exacerbates the problems. For instance, Merkel opened us up for foreign influence by making as more and more dependent on cheap Russian gas and Chinese labor/market and now the German public and its manufacturing base suffer greatly. Especially making the energy system dependent on Russia is borderline criminal since her oath sounds in part like "...I swear to prevent harm to the German people...". In conjunction with that she started the transformation of the energy system half-heartedly, with a lack of grid infrstructre and then scheduled decommisioning of the nuclear plants 20 years early. Scholz is doing more of the same and saw himself unable to take back the order for decommision of the nuclear plants after the invasion of Ukraine and loosing the main supplier of energy. This is a problem, not only for the energy system and its stability as a whole but also for the future development of keeping the manufacturing base running and also keeping the lights on if we want to use AI to its fullest potential, while transforming the energy system in full to renewables. Due to the aforementioned issues and lack of reforms for 20-30 years, unwillingness to solve the problem with taxation and bureaucracy, the problems in the energy system and the population with its strange mentality that is overaging rapidly, I do not think that Germany will bounce back for the foreseeable time. If there are no reforms, changes in mentality and massive investments in every sector, Germany will go through an incredible recession due to millions of additional baby boomers leaving the labor force in the next ten years. ...and I did not even touch on the subject of mass migration and the rising problems it entails. The outlook is very dire, especially for younger people.

[@boozessc]

@@KohlieVarak let's face it, there is also a chauvinistic feel to the average German rejection to "new things". Sometimes they don't like such new things just because they are not german, and therefore suspicious And to be fair, I get that when you have always had a car from a known brand and it has worked just fine for 20 years, you trust that brand. I totally love my VW Golf now, but if I need an electric vehicle in 5 years time and a Chinese brand is 40% cheaper with similar outcome or quality. What would you do? I think the problem with German rejection of 21st century technology is also in part that Google, Apple, Tesla, Amazon etc are US companies, and therefore "suspicious"... And even companies who build hardware / things / cars, now new a state of the art software tu run these things and in this field German companies are not la creme de la creme.

[@robertmazurowski5974]

There is one problem with democracy. What if what people want is short term good for even more longterm pain? What if things the people want are things that will take them to collapse?

[@number2and3]

Why would Germany want more Turkish, Syrian, and Afgani imigrants to get on welfare and not work? They were a net ecnonomic negative in recent years, and they were unskilled workers on the far majority, which keeps wages lower for Germans. You skipped that part...

[@toyotaprius79]

Talk about easy scapegoating of race/ethnicity and not the very economic nature that creates wars and poverty in the global South for desperate immigrants to be profitably exploited.

[@chrisgeyer4002]

​@toyotaprius79 That's a different discussion entirely though. Has nothing to do with scapegoating either. Germany doesn't want or need any more migrants to come sit on welfare especially with all the economic issues they're facing.

[@micheal6898]

@@toyotaprius79 Its not scapegoating they are getting a better Deal than anyone in the world, Free asylum, Citizenship , welfare and support in housing To lead a new life while working people Cant afford to immigrate legally. and then Just Spit in everyone's face by sitting on welfare and being Religious fundamentalists.

[@tetrusadima]

Well you don't eastern european skill workers with almost native english skills and basic german also. I went there and was treated really bad. Stop advertising you want skilled workers if you actually don't want them. Pathetic country.

[@number2and3]

@@toyotaprius79 I pointed out the three obvious groups that have migrated most to Germany and of them are historically not skilled workers. Last time I was in Germany the hotel had big signs that said no Doner Kebab allowed here. I also met a very nice and awesome restaurant owner who explained to me how Afganis took advantage of the welfare system and how difficult hiring and firing is because the government, this is an anecdote of the local sentiment. That said a lot of data has been coming out of individual countries on the massive economic negatives with little assimilation or skills to make any logic for Germany to accept them. Economics doesn't have your morals in it.

[@Pestbringer89]

bro points out a graph vom 4 years ago and acts like it came out yesterday.

[@SodaDjinn]

In terms of time windows for national economies, it's from yesterday.

[@hge437]

One point that I don't understand is regarding the third point - a working democracy: how would it be easier for the next government to fix these issues? I mean, the cost of living crisis may be a temporary thing (and my impression is that the current government did have measures to provide relief to people), but how do you solve inefficient government, red tape, and demographics? These are not easy things to fix.

[@alko_xo]

And the third reason is like... Come on, dude? Are you even serious? This whole video is just an essence of toxic positivity.

[@Fidwor]

If you think that Germany can be written off in the long term, then we should let history teach us. At the beginning of its young history, Germany was in conflict with the Roman Empire and was able to assert itself. Even the Huns and or Hungarian could not break this country; on the contrary, it made them inventive. Germany had a 30-year war and the plague, and yet Germany rose from the ashes like a phoenix. In the first and second world war, Germany went through hyperinflation and total destruction, and yet it awoke again from the ashes of destruction. The young phoenix that awoke again in 1949 is now old, weak and powerless. Let us let it rest and depart from us, for it will once again awaken from the embers and it will be stronger than it ever was before. Just as it has always been.

[@fallonmassey4714]

*Germany is DONE... Stay off the Drugs!*

[@lv3609]

🤣 👍

[@blah163]

It's great to hear an optimistic forecast.

[@intebuddy]

All I see is discounted market, which will be dominant again

[@chrisgeyer4002]

If they don't have people to work how will it be dominant again?

[@Marvin-ii7bh]

​@@chrisgeyer4002"no people" - we have 83 million and rising. Additionally, robots and incresingly ai have already made the average German worker way more productive than in the past.

[@chrisgeyer4002]

​@Marvin-ii7bh your population is only rising due to migration much of which is unskilled and contributes nothing economically and actually is a leach on the economy. Your native population particularly the working age population will be growing smaller and smaller as each year passes. AI can help a little bit it's not going to be enough when your working population shrinks by a third over the next 20 years. Germany will be as poor as a Latin American country by the second half of the century baring a miracle.

[@Charlie43348]

​@@chrisgeyer4002 😂Mexico's GDP per capita in 2050 is predicted to be $42,000. So over the next 26 years, you expect the German economy, not even to have 0 growth. But to decline by 0.87% a year. That is degeneracy and will never happen. Cope.

[@chrisgeyer4002]

​@Charlie43348 You cleary are clueless and naive to how bad an aged population with no young people of working age will be for your economy😂true cope. Good luck 💀💀

[@aswinasok6039]

Sad state of affairs here in Germany. The price of food items in the supermarket has increased by almost 40 to 50 percent. No country in its right mind would want to destroy a cheap natural gas source and buy it from a country that lies across the Atlantic. Hope everything turns well for Germany!

[@Bahsushwbsv62622gsc]

Sounds like a bunch of wishful thinking.

[@alko_xo]

2:17 If Volkswagen or Miele move their production to other countries, it doesn't mean that the highly qualified workers who are freed up will easily find other similar jobs. You have to look at their average age (which is high) and their professional and national rigidity. So these assumptions are wishful thinking.

[@ashishpatel350]

germany ended world colonization because of ww2. let that sink in.

[@multidimensional_holographer]

I don't think that was their intention

[@exosproudmamabear558]

​@@multidimensional_holographerYeah but it still happened