Why I Will Always Be A Better Investor Than You

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James Shack

James Shack

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 1 200
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Which bias do you relate to the most?
@ScipioAfricanus809
@ScipioAfricanus809 3 жыл бұрын
“The investor's chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself” Benjamin Graham.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
@@ScipioAfricanus809 the technical knowledge required to invest is very basic. But investing is actually very hard, because of this 👆🏻.
@seraho
@seraho 3 жыл бұрын
Risk aversion. I'm a coward and the fear of losing my money was kept me away from investing for the longest time. Even when interest rates fell below 1%, I still opted to keep saving because at least there was no risk of losing my money in a savings account and then I learnt about inflation. 🙃
@garethgazz9332
@garethgazz9332 3 жыл бұрын
I'm too optimistic and believe in a companies story quite easily when it is covered in some article or whatever. Is there a bias for that? I have to have a rule where I don't buy anything unless I have sat on it for a day or two first. Great vid by the way!
@jamesc328
@jamesc328 3 жыл бұрын
I was very risk averse up to March 2021, then during lockdown started watching and learning about Index funds. It is scary, that I had so much ready cash roughly 50% cash 50 % in HL ISA and Sipp. Everything is with Vanguard now. I have increased my portfolio by 41% (8% is growth), the rest from cash invested. Currently got plenty of years cash for backup if anything goes wrong, so in August I have 30k maturing out of a Fixed Rate Account, so will be looking to invest that. I already have a lot in the S&P 500, some in ESG and might look at the U.S. Equity Index Fund - Accumulation for the 30k. I eventually want to get myself down to 2 years worth of ready cash, which I know is still probably too much. Also always watch your videos to the end, keep up the great work
@javi7602
@javi7602 3 жыл бұрын
" If you can't control your emotions, you can't control your money" - Warren Buffet
@brassj67
@brassj67 3 жыл бұрын
A good investor is a person who continues to regularly invest and invests in the long term . If you genuinely believe that a stock is under valued then it is always a good idea to invest in it, especially when there is a downturn in the markets. The more you buy and sell, the greater the risk of under performing but the more you buy and hold, the greater the chance of at least matching the markets the longer you hold on to the stocks. Patience is a virtue
@user-do6jp1zg5r
@user-do6jp1zg5r Жыл бұрын
👍👍Another way to get out of the "dont sell at a loss" mode is to view each stock/fund like a traffic jam. All the other lanes are moving faster than yours, so just switch lanes. Then switch again when the current lane stalls (obviously not immediately for investing, Id give it a few months). If you jump back to your original stock/fund in a few months time, wont you be ahead compared to not changing lanes? 👍👍
@michaelnorman6176
@michaelnorman6176 3 жыл бұрын
James - Yes I always watch these videos to the end... I find them really informative.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌🏻
@judokasniper
@judokasniper 3 жыл бұрын
Hi James thank you so much for putting the time and effort into these lectures, the information, insight and perspective are fantastic, it makes me wish I’d learnt more about financial education when I was younger, and the missed opportunities I could have benefited from with some simple guidance early on in my financial career.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Hey no problem! Just make sure to share!
@jam99
@jam99 2 жыл бұрын
Great stuff, James, thank you. The probability questions were unfair though. Probability only works statistically if the same bet is taken multiple times. You did not ask the question that way. You implied the listener was just making this bet once ("Which would you rather"), not multiple times. Obviously someone will only choose the chance not to lose rather than the sure lose if someone only has one stab at it. Just like most people would choose the sure win of a slightly lower amount than the gamble of a slightly higher amount, IF they only get one chance. The statistical analysis is only valid when the dice is rolled multiple times. Most of your stuff makes sense but this was utterly invalid because of the trick you played in the wording of the test questions. (I would give you a thumbs up but emoticons are a pain in the arse on this system.)
@rajlakhani2958
@rajlakhani2958 3 жыл бұрын
👍I watch everyone of your videos from start to finish. Very informative and thought provoking. It would be great to have a video on more exact details about the processes you mention to avoid our cognitive bad behaviours.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Hey Raj, thanks for the continued support! I'll get round to that for sure!
@lawrencesinderson
@lawrencesinderson 2 жыл бұрын
Always watch to the end. Your investing/pension planning ideas have helped me revalue my investment and retirement plans. The hardest part is always finding the best way to stress test my plan
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 2 жыл бұрын
Great stuff. What are the levers that you think make the plan vulnerable, are you aiming for a high withdrawal rate?
@lawrencesinderson
@lawrencesinderson 2 жыл бұрын
@@JamesShack I started late in life (52) and comfortable taking high levels of risk. I think its realistic that I will retire mid 60s with a very comfortable investment pot. The main threats to the pot is (1) not investing enough over a relatively short period of time (10-15 years) and (2) choosing the wrong year to invest in. I am fortunate that the job I do is working from home and its common for workers to stay with the company even in retirement. So my strengths are that my retirement date is flexible and I have a safety net should I need to delay it by 1-5 years. My other other lever to failure is my mortgage, again, started late and its due to end when I am 74. I am unsure of the direction I want to take with this as yet.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 2 жыл бұрын
Things to focus on would be, like you said, longevity in your job but also in your health. Starting later is fine, you can always push things back - so long as you stay healthy for longer! You can get Lifetime mortgages these days if over 55 which can help solve that problem. No one know what the markets will do in the future, so now is as good as any time to invest. It's only in hindsight that we can look back and say that was "good" or "bad" but it wasn't really - just luck! That uncertainty is hard to accept but that's the truth of it. If you're still 10+ years off retirement, that's still plenty of time to see growth.
@OfficialTommyEch
@OfficialTommyEch 3 жыл бұрын
👍🏻 great content! By the way, regarding your bets examples, I think more time should have been placed on the statistical analysis. Some of these bets make lots of sense on a repeated instance, but become risky if you know the occurance of it is limited to once. For instance, a 50/50 probability of either losing 1000 or winning 5000 is a good or bad bet depending on (1) how much 1000 is of your total assets and (2) how many times your repeating the bet. If 1000 is, say, 80% of your assets and you do the bet only ONCE, the value of those 1000 far exceeds the potential benefit, because 50% of the time you will become broke. Now of you know its a bet you can repeat, say 10 times, it becomes a no-brainer because the bet is free money at this point. Therefore the probability calculations are important for the decisionmaking.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the feedback Tommy, yes I’ve heard that from others . it seems I didn’t quite frame is all correctly.The reference point of how much money you have certainly affects decision making.
@jtsanders
@jtsanders 2 жыл бұрын
With these cognitive errors in mind, how do we decide between the right approach: between cutting a loss on something like BTC for example vs not selling at a low point and holding on for recovery.
@charliecooper8234
@charliecooper8234 3 жыл бұрын
👍 love your content James. It's so great to have a professional, calm opinion through all the noise around finance. Keep it up!
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Cheers Charlie!
@Kefford666
@Kefford666 2 жыл бұрын
👍🏻 The discussion about aversion to risk of losing money reminded me of the story recently where a US men’s football team took a risky contract but the women’s team negotiated for a less risky contract.
@roblowry9457
@roblowry9457 3 жыл бұрын
Yes - watched to the end. Always enjoy your videos.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌🏻
@davidthomas-ot4cl
@davidthomas-ot4cl 3 жыл бұрын
I love this! I used to sit through movies I wasn't enjoying just to get my money's worth or eat a meal I wasn't enjoying for the same reason. It's ridiculous. You're right, we need to think more clinically and cut our loses.
@ArcanePath360
@ArcanePath360 3 жыл бұрын
These are actually good life lessons, not just with investing. One of the better videos out there. I like how you got my attention with the click bait offensive title :)
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Haha glad it worked!
@NoName-ql1wk
@NoName-ql1wk 2 жыл бұрын
Agree. The videos are simple enough for the average Joe to understand and really should be taught in school mandatorily. Excellent channel. Wish I discovered it at 26 not 36 but nevermind. I at least now have money to invest.
@Oneofakind123
@Oneofakind123 3 жыл бұрын
The question did not state i could repeat the same bet. It is a big difference flipping a coin once and 1000 times. Considering a one time bet the responses makes sense.
@willlsmith8063
@willlsmith8063 3 жыл бұрын
Im a big fan James...........great stuff buddy
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Cheers Will , thanks for the support!
@gusdogbrownlab435
@gusdogbrownlab435 Жыл бұрын
👍 60 years old UK guy just retired from teaching and doing part time work to avoid taking too much of my pension pot. I watch a lot of your videos James. Very interesting
@HamperedPath34
@HamperedPath34 3 жыл бұрын
And again, you've smashed it out the park. Quality is definitely greater than quantity. I watched to the end as always. Found this really informative and really just corroborates the fact that direct debits or standing orders into investment funds are the best option. I think the riskiest part (for me atleast) is when it comes to the annual or semi annual re-balancing. Could we get a video on that?
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Haha! Thank you. Yes i've started to realise that it's worth slowing down and even doing 2 vids a month just so you can put more thought into the ideas! Yep, I'm gonna do one on that very soon. Some title like "Why you should sell your winners and buy your losers"
@alkro86
@alkro86 3 жыл бұрын
The reason why most people are scared of risks is that the potential gains would have a very small positive impact on your life, while a loss can have a severe negative impact on your life. Would you toss a coin to win 10 homes but if you lose you lose your home? Unless you want to be at the absolute top of wealth you should try be as safe as possible with your personal finance.
@Lucky13_537
@Lucky13_537 3 жыл бұрын
You should not take risks with money you need. Such money (emergency funds, money to buy something in the next 2 years) sits in my savings accounts as cash. So long as one is doing that, I think one can take a lot more risk with any additional money they invest.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
The reference point is very important as you say. If you've only got $100 then you should not be taking the bet. Which is why everyone says you should only invest money you can afford to keep invested for 5+ years
@daveschmarder-1950
@daveschmarder-1950 3 жыл бұрын
I watched to the end. I found behavior to be more important than the actual mutual fund or ETF I own. 2020 was a great example.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Yes indeed. Unfortunately this can only be learned through experience, it can’t be taught!
@johnanth
@johnanth 3 жыл бұрын
While I agree with what you say, I wouldn't be so harsh on people that took out their savings when everything crashed in March. Not everyone was fortunate to be employed, lots of relationships were tested, and for corporations, no one knew quite what they were in for. But yes, it's better to hold the course than take a loss.
@67eamonn
@67eamonn 3 жыл бұрын
How about a follow up video explaining the strategies you mentioned to avoid the errors you've highlighted?
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Yes, that's been a popular request!
@OldJoeAce
@OldJoeAce 3 жыл бұрын
👍I listen to the end because what you say is informative, interesting and fun too.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌🏻
@ChrisShawUK
@ChrisShawUK Жыл бұрын
I'm glad I sold my Orange shares earlier this year. I held onto them a decade too long. Since selling them, and reinvesting in the S&P, that has performed relatively worse than orange in the intervening period. But I still feel better. The glory days for that stock are definitely in the rear view mirror
@tracythompson4024
@tracythompson4024 3 жыл бұрын
👍 informative as ever James, always look forward to your videos.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌🏻
@Radictor44
@Radictor44 Жыл бұрын
I suppose that's the beauty of an index fund. 👍
@FrazerBriggs
@FrazerBriggs 3 жыл бұрын
👍🏻 Great content again James - it’d be interesting to see how people’s risk aversion changes when the potential loss increases. I imagine many more people would happily risk losing $100 from a coin toss for the chance to win $150, compared with those who would accept the risk of losing $10,000 against winning $10,050 even though the expected return would be the same. And if you could toss the coin infinite times of course you’d be crazy not to accept the bet.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Hey! So typically it falls off between 1.5-2 times the loss. So $100 loss for $150 gain up to $100 for $200 gain. After 2x it really drops off. This is a test of people's attitude to risk. You should check our Daniel Khaneman's book Thinking Fast and Slow. It goes way deeper than what i've done here and across even more biases
@deanej1
@deanej1 2 жыл бұрын
Again, agree with your point about risk aversion, but not with your maths. Statistics 101, expected value is rarely, and sometimes never, the likely value - and so is meaningless. You probably meant that you might expect to gain from the bet if you could repeat it enough times. Unless you’re allowed to repeat the bet as many times as you want, a 50% chance of losing is fairly high (depending on your appetite, I guess). Suppose the bet was get a free big house or lose your own existing home - maybe your appetite is different now? “Do I really need a bigger house enough to risk losing the one I am perfectly happy with?”, for example.
@markaw9243
@markaw9243 3 жыл бұрын
it was offensive to me until you clarified that youre better with my money vs myself. im a god trader and investor and next meme follower
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Haha, so I’m guessing you relate most closely to Overconfidence bias ?!
@FoxtrotWTA
@FoxtrotWTA 3 жыл бұрын
Everyone’s thinks they’re a genius in a bull market 🙂
@louiswarren5343
@louiswarren5343 5 ай бұрын
👍 - ive recently started watching your channel, only currently 21, and once i have finished university and have a full time job, one of the first things ill be doing is getting a financial advisor. Ive been investing from 18, but there is always more to learn and im still not even close to the 100k figures. Currently making my way through 5 figures though, thanks to some good last 2 years :)
@Windowswatcher
@Windowswatcher Жыл бұрын
My late husband always maintained that if a stock had dropped and it was basically a sound company…then to buy more. So why sell?
@MaroonedInDub
@MaroonedInDub Жыл бұрын
👍I thought KZbin gave the figures about how much of the video is watched. (So as you can see I have never done a KZbin video). Thanks for the good and useful info👍
@chrishayward4649
@chrishayward4649 2 жыл бұрын
Late to this video....found it funny, harsh but mostly revealing about my own experience/behaviours. Starting to suffer a bit from info overload in my finance/drawdown/SIPP/investment 2022 education drive. Anyone got a time turner from Hogwarts I can borrow to tell my younger self to not over think things?
@Indowaindowa
@Indowaindowa 2 жыл бұрын
Great video, I read Daniel Kahneman Thinking Fast and Slow; and Nassim Nicholas Taleb Black Swan etc...your ideas fit perfectly with their observations.
@King_Harrold
@King_Harrold 3 жыл бұрын
To the end. Your video length is spot on and engaging throughout.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Cheers Lee! Much appreciated!
@markthomas9370
@markthomas9370 Жыл бұрын
👍👍 great video, though I think when you look at the money aspect I think a lot of the choices you make are based on how much that amount of money means to you. As an example, if I play with £10 bets, I'm going to be more likely to take a risk than i'f I'm playing with £100,000 bet. Emotional reactions are always difficult to control, from the sending of a stroppy email, arguing with your kids or using the car horn, there are many times when we have to put the chimp in the box and keep it under control.
@ytschan5505
@ytschan5505 4 ай бұрын
👍 But I thought this data should be avaliable in the creator panel? There is a view time anaylsis for each video.
@ApostolosAntonacopoulos
@ApostolosAntonacopoulos 11 ай бұрын
👍 Thank you, James for your very informative videos. Could you also perhaps discuss/compare overpayments into a pension fund over contributing the same amount (taxed) into an ISA? Thinking about a longer-term scenario of fund growth (at least 10 years). Some pension funds do not offer the flexibility for as high growth as a general stocks+shares ISA does and perhaps it is better to pay tax up front in the smaller amount going in rather than on the larger amount being withdrawn later?
@UKGeezer
@UKGeezer Жыл бұрын
👍Thanks James, this is why I am hiring an advisor so they can give me objective advice. I know what I need to do which is to invest a big lump of cash, but I keep questioning myself.
@paulevans2246
@paulevans2246 2 жыл бұрын
👍 watched all the way to the end. Fascinating stuff. Can you provide examples of the processes you have put in place to mitigate the biases please? 🤔
@JohnSmith-ch9lp
@JohnSmith-ch9lp 2 жыл бұрын
👍 I enjoyed this video more than you did! 😀
@Alex-Popa
@Alex-Popa 11 ай бұрын
👍 I now find Netflix binge watching even more counter productive than before.
@MrPW2009
@MrPW2009 Жыл бұрын
Hi James, thanks for this. As I was watching and considering your questions, it became obvious that one-off choices are more risky than repeated ones, because repetition tends towards the more probable outcome. One coin toss is either heads or tails, but 1000 coin tosses is likely to be close to 500/500. And so it is with the bets you offered. Even if the odds are in your favour, you'd feel pretty stupid if you lost. So a trader maximising wins and minimising losses can be profitable with less than 50/50 success, though success is likely, over time to be 50/50. But a long term investor making a single deposit is vulnerable. Cost averaging, I suppose, is the simplest answer to that. Depending on the investment time frame, there is a regular option to pull out, or to grit your teeth and keep pushing money in!
@n.8899
@n.8899 3 жыл бұрын
how do you give a thumbs up if you are watching on the pc?
@markedgeworth5772
@markedgeworth5772 2 жыл бұрын
👍 Absolutely brilliant! Where was this stuff when I started investing 30 years ago?
@Bitachon
@Bitachon 2 жыл бұрын
*Confirmation bias is powerful*
@mrcmdjd57
@mrcmdjd57 3 жыл бұрын
Good talk and I listened to the end but cannot figure out how to leave a thumbs up!
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you anyway!
@russellsharpe288
@russellsharpe288 3 жыл бұрын
11:40 "It's so important that you totally ignore the past performance of all your holdings..." But what about reversion (regression) to the mean? Doesn't this imply that if a stock has done well in the recent past, it will likely do not so well in the near future, and that if it has done badly in the recent past, it will likely not do so badly in the near future? Or have I misunderstood this concept? (BTW I watched to the end but have no idea what "put a thumbs up in the comments" even means)
@iainreeve4522
@iainreeve4522 3 жыл бұрын
I think the problem with regression to the mean is that we don't know what the mean value is for a particular stock. If a stock falls in value, does that mean that it's automatically going to improve in the future or is it in a terminal decline because it is selling products that nobody wants? If the stock was certain to increase in value the market would drive the price up. So a cheap stock could either be an under-appreciated gem or deservedly cheap. The market doesn't know, so neither do we.
@russellsharpe288
@russellsharpe288 3 жыл бұрын
@@iainreeve4522 Isn't the relevant sense of 'mean' here the overall performance of the market? So that if over a recent period a stock performs well (badly) relatively to the overall performance of the market, it has over(under)-performed and can be expected not to perform so well(badly) in the near future. Not always, of course, but "on the average"?
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Regression to the mean is real, but is typically used for whole of market analysis, individual stocks have too many individual company risks that mean it is not reliable. You could try to do it by looking at a whole sector, but it's still hard. Momentum however is something that is very important which requires looking back at past performance, typically over the last 12 months. But the key thing is not to just look back over how long you have been holding the stocks, what it's done since you've been holding is irrelevant, just look back over the last 12 months no matter if you own it or not.
@atul9380
@atul9380 3 жыл бұрын
Really enjoyed listening to how we can be our own worst enemy and these cognitive biases apply to so much that we choose to watch online. Thanks James 👍🏽
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌
@juliettan3767
@juliettan3767 Жыл бұрын
👍always watching your videos from start to finish and like coming back and watching them again because I see I tend to forget a lot with time
@paulthorpe766
@paulthorpe766 2 жыл бұрын
'In the cut and thrust of financial life, always back self-interest, because you know it's trying!' A quote by the great Malcolm Turnbull Ex-Australian P.M. And yes I could write a book on Loss Aversion theory - ps studies suggest it's about 2 to 3 times more pain of losing something over joy of gaining something eg say a £50 note in your suit trousers !
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 2 жыл бұрын
Great points!
@mimeke
@mimeke 2 жыл бұрын
Old but...👍 appreciating the content
@markwaite6463
@markwaite6463 Жыл бұрын
👍just found your channel, James, and the content is superb. Thank you for generously sharing your professional insight.
@loungeranger
@loungeranger 2 жыл бұрын
👍Love your content James. Comprehensive, summarising the academic aspects really well, as much as needed to support a practical approach to investing. My favourite financial commentator with a middle approach between Ben Felix and someone like Rob Berger.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you, very kind words!
@josephbrown3647
@josephbrown3647 2 жыл бұрын
Are you on Spotify? I'd love your videos to he in audio format so I could listen to you on my long drives to and from work
@Stevenc1984
@Stevenc1984 3 жыл бұрын
Sent your last video to a friend and he instantly subscribed 👍🏻
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌🏻
@andyelizabeth5832
@andyelizabeth5832 Жыл бұрын
Hi , a year late , but thanks for the information and yes i did watch to the end 👍
@djornfevrier4799
@djornfevrier4799 3 жыл бұрын
👍 always try to watch till the end, successful 90% of the time
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌
@MrFrobbo
@MrFrobbo Жыл бұрын
Great content James, keep it up. Especially like the psychology link which I as a inexperienced investor fell foul of. Learnt my lesson, DCA all the way, no matter if I have the cash in the bank or not, DCA!
@JamesShack
@JamesShack Жыл бұрын
Thank you, I will!
@bazwan6396
@bazwan6396 3 жыл бұрын
Watched to the end, and have concluded I am still an emotional investor with the savannah mindset. I am working on it but it has been built up over 50+ years, so am finding it very difficult.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
You'll get there in the end!
@kevinrichards6506
@kevinrichards6506 3 ай бұрын
Guilty of so many of these at various times - removing the emotion from the process is key. I learned a lot about myself when the National Lottery was in its infancy. My wife and I used to buy the same numbers every Saturday £1 each -a bit of fun, poor chance of winning, yes, why not ? BUT also a big concern that if we changed numbers each week then our previous numbers might come up 😂 But the irrationality of it all was highlighted one weeked when we were so busy and didn't buy our tickets. That was the most attention we'd ever paid to the Saturday night draw - watching a lottery where we didn't have tickets just in case the numbers we would have chosen came up 😅 Also have held on to funds in a SIPP waiting for them to recover 😮 - although I must say platforms are very good at showing long term performance (you really have to dig to get recent data) helping feed my bias. Hopefully I've learned to spot my own silliness 😊
@RandomCyclist
@RandomCyclist Жыл бұрын
👍🏻 interesting and some good points to consider in a number of areas, not just investment.
@nickyyap1663
@nickyyap1663 3 жыл бұрын
I am a simple investor... Any good valued stocks fall, l will buy some.. Going back up is not my problem, it is more of a problem for them to get back on their feet and l am very sure they are more eager than me to regain their profits.
@craigross341
@craigross341 2 жыл бұрын
5:50 Diminishing marginal utility tells you that the certain $900 is better. These calculations equating two expected returns are only true if the game is played many times. For anyone not rich on a one-off the certain is better, because the additional $100 is moving them along a flatter part of the utility curve.👍
@dcocz3908
@dcocz3908 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks, none of this helped with my mates toxic relationship. I offered to take on responsibility of managing it for him in an effort to take away irrational behaviour, that didnt work either
@ericrobinson2611
@ericrobinson2611 Жыл бұрын
I understand emotional risk, but you're incorrect that these are the "same question" or that the choices are "identical". Yes, they have the same expected return, but that doesn't mean the probability distributions don't matter. If I'm in a situation where I *really* need to pay for a surgery and it costs $800 more than I have, then it is *definitely* more beneficial for me to take the guaranteed $900 than it is for me to risk potentially getting nothing with the $1000 option.
@ericrobinson2611
@ericrobinson2611 Жыл бұрын
Or another way of putting it, but your sampling matters :-P. Yes, given the extremes of the results here, you're likely proving your point, but bias and life situation *has* to factor into these decisions.
Жыл бұрын
👍 At the moment the thing I'm mostly affected by is Confirmation bias. I came here following one of your links that I thought would take me to a video on Factor investing. I'm glad I stuck around to the end of this video though.
@paull285
@paull285 3 жыл бұрын
I could have listened for another hour- so many truths, we all fall into the traps but great when someone takes the time to tell you where they are 👍
@harrison805
@harrison805 5 ай бұрын
Loss aversion and your expected value 'irrationalities' are not inaccurate. It is indeed worse to lose the same amount of money - and it should be evident without examples or having to explain.
@MartynThomas1
@MartynThomas1 2 жыл бұрын
👍Not sure if leaving a thumbs up is still useful a year after this was posted but the video was still useful and interesting to me.
@srappywoo
@srappywoo Жыл бұрын
👍🏼 Thanks for your excellent explanations.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack Жыл бұрын
My pleasure!
@yogabija
@yogabija Жыл бұрын
Great video, I watched to the end. I like they way you explained it.
@8linck8
@8linck8 3 жыл бұрын
That one example about taking my stock, giving me cash, and asking whether I'd buy it again really put things into perspective. I never thought of it that way! How does that mesh with not selling at a loss though and just holding til things recover? 👍
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Certainly hold onto it, if you think it will recover, but if you think it will recover, and you're not buying more.... then maybe you don't really believe!
@Alan_Duval
@Alan_Duval 11 ай бұрын
Just to note, in both of the polls, you only asked about a single instance of a bet. In a single instance, the bet that most people made is the rational choice; it's only when the bet is made multiple times (enough for the proportions of wins and losses to be shown to be true, say, 10) that the rational choice moves from the sure thing to the 90% option. This is something that shows up in a lot of psych textbooks, too. Yes, 90% of £2000 is equivalent to £1800, but as any single instance is a bet on one or other outcome, not the average outcome across multiple instances, the rational choice is the sure thing unless you can afford to take the risk (which is, after all, why one of the golden rules of investing - or at least the riskier kinds of investing - is to only invest what you can afford to lose). As such, the people who voted for the 90% option in both polls either knew the broader context and were assuming that's what you were getting at, or they were irrational.
@prodavnicayugo
@prodavnicayugo 10 ай бұрын
👍another great lesson- thanks James!
@Brownbeltforever
@Brownbeltforever 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your good advice. We all need to hear this line of thinking over and over.
@Hindsightisgreat
@Hindsightisgreat 4 ай бұрын
Always interesting content . I watch till the end , I am probably risk adverse but now I have studied and learn more about how to calculate risk etc I am getting better
@schajaffar5792
@schajaffar5792 2 жыл бұрын
👍Thats a very informative video, can yourecommend a book to read based on cognitives biases. Thanks!
@imull7044
@imull7044 2 жыл бұрын
Always great content this must be my 3rd time I've watched this and it won't be the last😁
@davidosalsero2519
@davidosalsero2519 Жыл бұрын
Very gòd, and, yes, I am still watching till the end. Cheers.
@davidosalsero2519
@davidosalsero2519 Жыл бұрын
....and, I think that when I am in the casino next, I will put it all on BLACK!
@Bomag
@Bomag 2 жыл бұрын
👍 Seems like the best way then is to pair up with a stranger and manage each others money, that way it removes the emotional bias.
@simbals
@simbals 2 жыл бұрын
👍 really good video. I really enjoy your style and the way you present the concepts. Thanks for sharing.
@rolandashdown4903
@rolandashdown4903 3 жыл бұрын
Thumbs up from me! :) Would be interested in hearing/seeing your personal "processes" to try and remove bias from your personal investing. Cheers.
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
Yes, I've had that request from other, will do it for sure!
@EcommerceGold
@EcommerceGold 3 жыл бұрын
Very interesting topic and why I take a hands off approach to investing. I watched to the end 👍
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌
@anthonyjanes9973
@anthonyjanes9973 Жыл бұрын
Thanks James another great video
@lkearney7299
@lkearney7299 7 ай бұрын
Watched all the way through. Great content, thanks
@wholovesyababy5574
@wholovesyababy5574 Жыл бұрын
👍 Watched to the end. How do you know me so well when we've never met? LOL. I'm terrified of losing a cent. That keeps me from taking risks. That said, can you make a video specifically for older people? I'm in my 60's. I've missed the time boat. But I have some money. What do I do now? Remember that the biggest segment of Boomers are now 65 and over. Please make a video aimed at us and what we should be doing. Thank you.
@jjmarquete
@jjmarquete 3 жыл бұрын
Mind Blown! Thumbs up! Wink!
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌
@gazzatatts4228
@gazzatatts4228 Жыл бұрын
Legend buddy love your honesty and insight cheers gazza australia
@The-TW
@The-TW 3 жыл бұрын
👍🏽 always watching to the end. Very informative as always James
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌🏻
@Christian-eh8iu
@Christian-eh8iu 2 жыл бұрын
Excelent video. Really makes you think👍
@oscarpicazo808
@oscarpicazo808 Жыл бұрын
👍 Hi James. Thank you for the content and taking the time to make your videos. I learn something new with every one I've watched so far.
@wildtill9
@wildtill9 3 жыл бұрын
👍Good stuff - thanks
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
🙌
@peterwhite5002
@peterwhite5002 2 жыл бұрын
👍- Another great video. Thanks James
@161x10
@161x10 3 жыл бұрын
Hey bro, how come I can't anything about you on the web regarding wealth management?
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
I use a stage name... www.linkedin.com/in/james-shackell/
@paulhughes9391
@paulhughes9391 2 жыл бұрын
👍 Phycology is the most important part of investing & financial trading. Your degree is far more useful for Financial planning than Economics or Business studies would have been. Good content cheers
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 2 жыл бұрын
Thank Paul, I'm glad you enjoyed it!
@sevensorrows2595
@sevensorrows2595 2 жыл бұрын
👍👍👍👍👍...! Watched it all. 10/10 as always, James.
@playingFTSE
@playingFTSE 3 жыл бұрын
Not sure if you've spent any time listening to David Gardner from the Motley Fool, but an awful lot of this is in his general thinking about stocks - he calls it "Rule Breaking Investing" because it goes against general thinking/what you'd think is naturally right. "Add to your winners" ringing in my ears right now! 👍
@JamesShack
@JamesShack 3 жыл бұрын
I have not, but will check it out!
@julianf1970
@julianf1970 Жыл бұрын
This is a fun video, from a psychological point of view. My brain is still whirring around. There comes a point where I find myself performing 'infinite regression' wondering: am I doing this because I don't want to do this, or am I doing this because I do want to do this but realise that I'm only wanting to do this because my instinct is telling me not to do this? Arrrrrrgh!
@mhall9048
@mhall9048 Жыл бұрын
👍 always providing gold content.
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