😱 Why is NIO Not Speaking About This (anymore)?

[@karimc8379]

Thanks for the vid. If regulatory credits is a free market, a potential buyer could negociate a low price given Nio's current balance sheet and stock price. If Nio needs money, at current share price, issuing more shares is not the best. So if selling reg credits is Nio's only source of financing, the buyer would be in a better position. Flip side: if the ballance sheet and/or share price improves, Nio would have the upper hand in a negociation

[@cervelo9465]

We reached 50,000 subscribers. Well done. I have been watching since middle of year 2020, almost 4 1/2 years time.

[@jimmytran511]

Thanks Marcel and happy Thanksgiving to all Nio fans

[@manik00]

If not carbon credits, what other sales they could have made? It would be good to know from the management if they are hoarding carbon credits.

[@trent1615]

Looks like a surprise quarter is coming maybe this quarter maybe one of the big quarters next year. Looks like they are sitting on the credits.

[@lsiws01]

Very interesting and informative. Thanks Marcel.

[@lkolonis]

If they had regulatory credits, they would likely be using them. Given the scrutiny they’re facing over their bottom line, it doesn’t make much sense for them to hold onto those credits instead of using them.

[@Cheekyoctopus]

Interesting point Thank you Marcel. Can't help feeling something big is coming soon

[@niosanfrancisco]

I agree on this

[@XII19755]

NIO is saving the credits for big surprise. 💪🏻🇨🇳

[@crystaln644]

Agreed!

[@aetasch]

Don’t get it. As NIO is only producing in CN they can also just sell certificates in CN. Ist that right? In CN there is already a high penetration of EV ->weak demand for certificates? Are there any numbers of other CN OEM selling this in China like XPENG or Geely? This might bring the answer…

[@landyrandall3727]

Maybe they are trying to burn shorts, the Onvo EO did recently come out to say NIO doubters beware.

[@niosanfrancisco]

Love the data 📈 Marcel

[@Fliptop95]

This is great news Marcel! Thanks for the video and Happy Thanksgiving! I say it would be good to use these on they're 2026 note.. I think they paid 1/3 so far. Or, maybe burn shorts on a earnings call! 😃🤙 sneak attack!

[@abdul-rahmanbajunaid3225]

Can you make a video about battery swap, according to my napkin calculations, each swap station on average, they swap 15 times a day. These swaps include free swaps

[@flukeylukey7559]

If nio hold onto the carbon credits, it stops other car makers faking greenness, and will have to actually build evs.

[@barr96]

Im still confused on who will buy a not so cheap firefly EV that does battery swap, yet there isnt a single battery swap station for the brand. To build one out will take years and millions of $$. Madness 😅

[@davedavycrocket]

I agree. It is MADNESS! It absolutely ridiculous that they are not modelling the Firefly on the NIO/ONVO Swap platform! WTF!! This is a STUPID STUPID MISTAKE and probably a deal breaker for me to get into this stock unfortunately because I do like the NIO/ONVO Battery swap platform strategy. Unless management do a MAJOR RETHINK on the whole separate and unique Firefly swap station buildout plan, they are going to inadvertently sink this company with unnecessary and unsustainable debt. Very poor management decision with Firefly. Very very disappointing.

[@4sky]

You'd have to think if they did build costly Firefly swap stations, why would they come out and say profitability by 2026?

[@barr96]

@4sky so what swap stations are firefly to use? 😀

[@flukeylukey7559]

​@barr96 could be they'll use the Catl swap station for firefly. Firefly will be a competitor to smaller luxury brands like MB, Mini, I'm sure it will be priced under Onvo which will be still quite affordable, but not in the byd price bracket.

[@SPCE_BOYY]

nio stock isn't higher because it was selling a PREMIUM PRICED car that actually sold very well for a car in that segment. Now it has introduced ONVO the FIRST AFFORDABLE battery swapping vehicle at $28K! to be followed by FIREFLY an even more affordable. 2 MINUTE BATTERY swaps are the future!

[@captainreza1]

CEO said FireFly is not going to be a cheaper model. It can not use the existing BaaS to swop and therefore needs it own dedicated infrastructures. Very poor business model I am afraid.

[@i6power30]

No one cares about battery swapping now that there are 500kw charging stations

[@captainreza1]

@@i6power30 that’s not true. Battery Swap is useful specially in dense urbane areas, or people with time constraints like cab drivers (robtaxi). Super Chargers reduce the lifetime of the battery (its chemistry and pushing large amount power V*I into the matter). Industry doesn’t want people know these tradeoffs …

[@andrewdavis6100]

@@i6power30really showing your ignorance there bud.

[@thomaswolek4017]

⁠@@i6power30🤡🤡 500kwh charging 😂😂 maybe in the lab, in real life people struggle to get +150 kwh if there is just half full of cars at the charging station.

[@LetsLearnEconomic]

Maybe NIO will try to win over better sentiment during COP29 to raise their 1 credit to 1 ton of carbon offset as one example. So if I were NIO, I wouldn't focus on disclosing credits awarded now until regulators start realizing the higher carbon offset through NIO imo. Which could shock wallstreet without being considered insider trading.

[@Eddycook-d8r]

Thanks for all the updates

[@SanteriVanhakartano]

Good stuff 👍 Hey Marcel! Im one of your subscribers. Thanks for the great job you are doing 🙏 I’m an advocate for Nio as well and have been since IPO. Just thinking of the unofficial registration numbers especially for Onvo. Just thinking because they are weekly numbers so the ones, 1000 unregistered that you brought up, may not be included the last week numbers? Maybe intentionally by the competitor, what do you think?

[@AliAlizadah-k2k]

Thanks friend

[@dennista42069]

There is a mistake in your chart with other revenues, in Q1 2022 other revenues were US$105.1 million not the 195 million in your chart and Q4 2021 was 107 million usd! What is nice to see is that other sales made up a larger chunk of the revenues in percentage: 2019(5,8%), 2020(6,5%), 2021(8,1%)(spike with credits??), 2022(7,2%), 2023(11,4%)

[@peterpeter1829]

I wonder if they should maybe sell the credits to do more swap stations?

[@Slaytheday388]

Just a matter of time , when NIO get envo deliveries up to 20k per month we will be looking very good.

[@carlosvizcarra5821]

Is Xpeng report showing that they are selling these credits?

[@davedavycrocket]

Hi Marcel, I greatly enjoy your videos and research and appreciate the detail and insight you contribute to the 'Nio world'. I was wondering if you could address the proverbial 'elephant in the room' - that being: Why is NIO management building out the Firefly that will NOT BE ABLE TO USE THE EXISTING SWAP STATION INFRASTRUCTURE OR BATTERY PACKS?! YES I know the target market is primarily for Europe and perhaps the rest of the world - but so what? They are already building out the legacy NIO and ONVO power swap stations in Europe and soon for the rest of the world, so why would they want to start an entirely unique power swap station and battery pack infrastructure dedicated ONLY TO FIREFLY ??? Not only that, but why would they want to limit Firefly sales to countries OUTSIDE CHINA??? Just imagine IF Firefly becomes more popular than either Nio or Onvo? Wouldn't it be smart if management left the door open for DOMESTIC SALES (inside China) so Firefly could utilize the ALREADY EXISTING and EXPANDING Nio/Onvo Powerswap station infrastructure? Having a unique battery pack for Firefly would not necessarily be a problem IF they made it available for swapping at EXISTING Nio and Onvo powerswap stations by adapting those powerswap stations to accommodate Firely size batteries. Furthermore, this will only CONFUSE potential buyers about NIO AND ONVO power swap stations and battery packs being entirely NON COMPATIBLE with FIRELY. A better plan would have been to build out powerswap stations at the beginning of the buildouts with the FORESIGHT of anticipating different sized battery packs for different types of vehicles. That WOULD have ensured a universal compatibility with ALL types of battery pack vehicle. FRANKLY THEIR THINKING ON THIS WAS and IS NOT LOGICAL. This seems like a colossal BLUNDER and I firmly believe Nio will do great harm to their company by trying to do this. They are already on thin ice trying to ramp up the EXISTING powerswap infrastructure and trying to convince new buyers of the future relevance of powerswap stations vs. the coming soon to be mainstream SOLID STATE battery packs with twice the range, half the weight and a 10 minute 80% capacity charge time. They MUST do an 'about face' and redesign Firely to be fully and universally compatible with EXSITING powerswap station infrastructure - or MODIFY EXISTING NIO/ONVO Powerswap stations to become UNIVERSAL SWAP STATIONS that can accept not ONLY Firefly, but also ALL OTHER MODELS coming in the future. By making Firely and ALL their vehicles - in addition to the Powerswap partners vehicles - FULLY UNIVERSAL AND COMPATIBLE with EXISTING and FUTURE Powerswap Stations.... .... they have a chance at making their Powerswap Stations the 'gas stations' of the future. Failure to do this, will ensure the failure of that vision.

[@ЗеновіяПриймак]

Investing in stocks is planting a tree for your future; with patience, it will bear fruit.

[@abdelghaniainouss]

Marcel what is your opinion on Nio making Firefly non swappable. I think this could be a good response to the competition and could improve the bottom line. It also makes sense for overseas markets, EU would probably impose a minimal price cap on Chinese EVs, so super cheap Firefly is not an option. I hope the Nio management could consider this option.

[@raffaelerossi6173]

from the images you can clearly see that the firefly car has a high wheelbase, I presume higher than 2.9 metres, despite the car being small in size, I believe around 4.2/4.3 metres, so it could be able to use the Onvo baas stations

[@adedomini]

@@raffaelerossi6173 the problem its the width

[@flukeylukey7559]

The small swap stations are for the partner brands as well. Even if firefly starts out with a few swap stations and builds from there, then it's evs are still upgradable, franchise and petrol companies can pay for some of them.

[@AbdulRahman-od1dg]

Based on the other sales trend, it certainly seems to be the case of NIO not selling it yet and piling them up. Hope we see it in the report soon sending the other sales to over $600 million +

[@abdelghaniainouss]

I think traditional automakers don’t need to buy these from NIO anymore because they are not selling that much vehicles.

[@ors381]

Just another speculation: May be these regulatory credits are not sold on a regular basis but handed over towards the Hefei local government as part of an agreed compensation for the bail out in 2019?

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

No

[@markwaszczak7516]

Great info. I new nothing of this. Hope this helps a lot

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Hope so!

[@javajav3004]

😂😂

[@jamalhasan2195]

How about not paying suppliers over 295 days? Is this practice normal in China?

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Good for NIO, more working capital during the time where the money is still with them. If the supplier accept those terms, its fine ...

[@jamesp5301]

The graph makes it clear they are selling the regulatory credits as they go along. I assume the big spike it when they sold credits they had been hoarding before. Come on man

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

I only see "other sales" going up in sync with the cumulative fleet, as it should since more people are buying "other services". What I don't see anymore - since a long time, are those spikes by credit sales, like in the past.

[@deonkumar1420]

Wow great work.

[@Ballin10X]

very cool video!

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Thank you! Cheers!

[@jaybavis5896]

Im disappointed with NIO. China is garbage. The company seems to make great cars . I think the company should move .

[@fredericracine6323]

lol . Are you a joke ?

[@luckarl]

Why so many hates on a country?!? I was there many months and met many great people. Chat GTP is also propaganda machine.

[@jonatanhernandez7677]

It's normal that China is not doing well, the US government attacks them with tariffs, sanctions and bans in the technology sector and short attacks by investment institutions and they have a real estate crisis that they are overcoming over time. China will be a winning country in the future, whether the US government wants it or not.

[@Sidekick618]

@@luckarlracism is the underlying issue.