⬇️ Why NIO Stock Really Dropped

[@ohasli38]

Thanks Marcel for this update.I hope that when you are in China you will be able to test drive the ONVO and give us your view of this product.Have a safe trip and a pleasant stay there

[@MoneyMagnet119]

Onvo L60's delivery numbers are currently lower than Xpeng Mona's, primarily due to Onvo's smaller store network. As of September 19, Onvo had only 120 stores and is aiming to expand to 200 by the end of 2024. This means Onvo plans to add 80 stores within the next three months, and by March 2025, another 80 stores are expected to open. With this rapid expansion, it's natural to project that Onvo's production and sales will scale accordingly. If Onvo expects to produce and sell 10,000 units by December 2024, it’s reasonable to anticipate that this figure could double to 20,000 units by March 2025. In contrast, Xpeng already has a significant advantage with 420 stores (126 dealer stores and 294 directly operated stores), enabling broader customer access and higher deliveries. Moreover, NIO, with its 137 NIO Houses and 258 NIO Spaces, offers an even more expansive network. A third brand under NIO, Firefly, is expected to leverage this infrastructure for production and sales. Given these dynamics, Firefly is also likely to outsell Onvo in the near future.

[@reinerwahnsinn4037]

OG is back ❤

[@trieunguyen5897]

Nio spend a lot on R&D this company is build for the future. It’s basically what investment is all about. Holding 22000 shares at $6.

[@williambassett969]

Give me a reason to ever invest in NIO again? I’m so angry at this lost cause. The long term Chinese averages are low. Ok. Don’t sell. But by no means will the west, the vast majority of majority, invest. This used to be a 10x. Now it’s a loss. My hedge on Burry keeps me invested. And long term lines. But Nio has proven to be bs. Stuck.Bag holder. Since 2020.

[@ThierryDubois-d5r]

Me too holding 46900shares now 6.22 . But is als myself every time should I sell half and take new opportunities, and every time I think of it surge then😅but it didn’t. So I missed so many opportunities

[@XII19755]

NIO is positive cash flow and near profitability hit! This should help NIO to deliver massive stock rally!

[@BenG-r2k]

?. Nio lost over $700 million in Q3

[@SuperReyand]

@@XII19755“soon“ is 2026, in their words.

[@jkuntz67]

pfff

[@BenG-r2k]

Well, that would certainly be nice to see, but I’ll continue to wait for lower prices. This head and shoulders pattern is getting ugly and with the extremely slow Onvo Ramp I’m going to sit by and see if they actually deliver on a forecast

[@BenG-r2k]

I have been patient since I sold in 2021 at $50 on the way down. It has served me very well getting out after the pump as the very predictable gap filling ensued. Good luck to all

[@ricardosentosa]

Best buy both xpeng and nio

[@benplumlee751]

Watched an interview on MSNBC that explains the China tariffs are 10%. Basically the deals are already done the day Trump takes office. NIO and BYD were mentioned as building plants in USA with our workers.

[@i6power30]

I highly doubt that would happen. Trump has made it clear he is anti-China and protect Tesla's interest. No Chinese OEMs will never sell their cars in NA. He may allow technology transfers from Chinese EVs to GM / Ford, and sell rebadged BYDs under Chevrolet, that's the most we can hope for. NIO brands in the US? 99% doubtful.

[@mickeyhughes7244]

Really? That's massive news if true

[@barr96]

6:30 I understand that NIO houses / spaces are located in larger / prime / expensive locations compared to xpeng?

[@jimmytran511]

Thanks Marcel. Looking forward to your video on Onvo next week.

[@muhamedberisha1]

Hi Marcel, The comparison of efficiency between the number of stores personally i think it doesnt have the same weight as when Xoeng had negative margins. Last qrt the reported double digit margins and as such, maybe their stores arent as efficient as they suppose to be, but they are delivering positive growth!

[@kennynguyen8106]

Thank you for your updated information.

[@davidsearle8486]

Great coverage as always Marcel, I really appreciate your thorough approach when analysing Nio. Thank you for your balanced opinion.

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Much appreciated!

[@Drgnrt]

Thank you for your updates!

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Always!

[@scottlink9864]

Had to reduce some of my portofolio on NIO as I couldn't resist such volatility. Was hoping some better reports but this is like a lottery ticket. Ill buy more if they give signs of improvement. But if they dont do something in Q1, well ... at least I wont get wiped out.

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Reasonable

[@johnstock1039]

Not necessarily. I will go to the nearest store to buy a car and thus the distribution splits among stores. If there is only one store within 15-20 miles, I wont have any option but to go there only.

[@kennybui753]

Onvo has lot of demand but they can’t deliver now

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

yes

[@AndreaDeBernardi]

Should NIO go dual primary NY/HK and get access to stock connect? is that a possibility?

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Yes!

[@MegaTonyng]

Never understood why Nio/ONVO has such challenges to ramp up production. No such issues with BYD, Li Auto etc😅

[@Alberto-xw8vx]

It's very easy, because of almost 96% automation in Hefei, but this way profitability Will be sooner than Tesla. 😊

[@jameskahl1598]

LI isn't full electric

[@funnywilliesue]

What will happen to Firefly? will it have its own swap stations? not shared with Nio swap stations? If Nio is working with other car partners, and they could make their own car compatible with the same swap stations, does that mean Nio R&D have some problem? Firefly will not be deliverable in the Q1 2025, I think Firefly swap stations will not be available during that time neither, does that mean Firefly will have a slow delivery number in next year? currently there are some car already under 150k yuan.

[@i6power30]

Nio has too many competitors. Not just Xpeng which I think is too much of a Tesla copycat. Geely I think is the rising star - they even have their own batteries with the highest charging speed and fire safety. Zeekr and Xiaomi caras all look very attractive and high performance. Li auto, BYD etc. NIO is only most high profile US listed Chinese EV stocks, but the US investors sentiment towards China is low. I don't see NIO excel in this environment.

[@barr96]

That Electric Viking aka 1 white shirt, needs to start watching Marcel's videos. That guy is way off the mark and constantly pumping Xpeng. Well, since he sold his NIO position.

[@ericjfarrow78]

Investors just do not believe the guidance anymore. They have failed to meet guidance multiple times. Especially the ET5. The ramp up of the L60 based on registrations is making November and Q4 numbers look very difficult to hit.

[@Starlight_glimmer04]

People and institutions still betting XPEV acquisition by VW, also XPEV deliver is coming back, and NIO delivery ramp up still not fast enough (ONVO), I think the most important thing is when NIO can turn profitable, CEO said 2026, so we still won’t see price went back even higher than XPEV.

[@ДенисПерфильев-х8ц]

Если я правильно понимаю, то половина поставок xpeng занимает Mona 10k+ $, Продают они ее кстати с маленькой маржой

[@NIOTrending]

Great point about Q1 as an indicator...thanks Marcel can't wait to see you with 100k subs! 😁

[@PGD..]

Thanks Marcel ❤

[@NIOforLIC]

Hallo Marcel, Tolles Video wie immer 👏Hast du Informationen wann Nio in die Schweiz kommt. Ich würde gerne demnächst das Auto wechseln möchte aber kein BMW oder Mercedes mehr kaufen. Die Schweiz wäre so oder so der bessere Markt gewesen um zu starten das Einkommen ist höher viel kleiner mit den Swap Stations die Deutschland jetzt hat wäre die Schweiz schon fast abgedeckt zumindest die Autobahnen die Marke wäre sicherlich schneller bekannt geworden und nicht vergessen keine EU Zölle LG

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Danke. Ich habe mal ein video dazu gemacht, als ich selbst durch die Schweiz gefahren bin: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rHbHnIesmb2hqKs Ich denke auch es wäre die bessere Strategie. Aber leider sehe ich keine Anhaltspunkte, dass NIO in die Schweiz kommt.

[@NIOforLIC]

@ wow danke für die schnelle Antwort ja das Video kenne ich toll ein Nio in der Schweiz zu sehen leider nicht meiner 😢auf jeden Fall guten Flug nach 🇨🇳

[@carlenlara2057]

Thanks Marcel

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Welcome

[@AliAlizadah-k2k]

Thanks friend

[@nio4128]

Thanks Marcel 👌

[@philipbrown8014]

You told me i should sell my NIO stock if i don't like NIO house, so i did!!

[@Christopher-tr1xu]

Good. No need to comment anymore.

[@Alberto-xw8vx]

Bye! 😂

[@jameskahl1598]

I hope you're not this gullible...

[@williambassett969]

As a long investor with 50k DKA in this position how can you respond to the electric Viking? I used the hate him because he always disparaged NIO. Two years ago I hated him. Because I had my position. Now with time we are here. I don’t care anymore about 10x. I’m looking for an exit. I’ve done my time. 5 years. Why should I keep this position? I’ll keep my position only because long-term averages say we’re going to get better, but I have no confidence and Nio anymore.

[@BenG-r2k]

Your sentiment about finding an exit at your cost basis is the kind of selling pressure that will not end. Think of the people who have a cost basis of $20 or more? They will likely never see their money. I read these comments about being patient for Nio to ramp up a Onvo and then read an article this morning Xpeng just rolled the 10,000th P7 off the line line 20 days after launch. I was also a Tesla IPO investor and I was patient because Elon ran that company like a sweatshop and was focused on profitability at every move. Had he been spendthrift like this company? I never would have invested long-term.

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

Ben I don't think you are sincere. If you REALLY were in Tesla during that time (like I have), you'd have seen that Tesla was making 500M - 800M quarterly losses just as NIO is doing now as well. But somehow you don't give NIO that runway to have losses before breaking even. Meanwhile you need to understand that the P7+ is based on an already existing, old vehicle platform and architecture. The Xpeng MONA as well. ONVO in comparison is an entirely new architecture that hasn't been used and scaled before. This makes a HUGE difference in automotive production scaling, whether or not the supplier are already onboard for a platform and whether you've already churned out other models in volumes with the same vehicle platform. I fully expect the next ONVO models that will come out in 2025 to scale just as fast as XPeng's current models.

[@BenG-r2k]

No doubt Tesla had Their struggles they came within a couple of quarters of outright bankruptcy, but I never had to worry about whether or not the company was laser focused on turning a profit as soon as possible . Nio is laden with all kinds of distractions like a phone or hundreds of thousands of square feet of useless showrooms. The reason I was patient with Tesla is because they didn’t waste money on things that I think don’t lead to a profit. Years of free swapping? A race car team? A winery in France? I totally understand the swap network is an investment particular to this technology, but I feel they have long since passed the point where they can take their foot off the spending in this department and grow organically. Clearly, if more swap stationsNio Houses led to more sales they would not be stuck where they are. You could be right about Onvo , but I’ll just continue to wait and be impressed and they very well could meet their delivery. With the 0% financing deals from Li Auto and Tesla and the already high rate of cancellation for Onvo it will be very interesting to watch. I still think the technology of baas is exciting. At the time I lived in Fresno, California just down the road from where Tesla built there short experiment on swapping a battery for a model S. I was never so disappointed when they abandoned it and a few years later when I caught news ofNio

[@bernhardforstner75]

On my opinion, Nio is on the path to fail. Loosing money while delieverings are weakening. Not good. I haven't sold may Nio shares, but I have fully written off all of them. If Nio should recover the next years, it will be fine. If not, it would not surprise me. Currently, investing in Nio was a big mistake. But that's the risk in investing in a highflyer stock (in 2020). I don't hope, but realistically Nio stock is about to die, if the 3,70usd beaks to the downside...

[@stephenogrady267]

Deliveries are at all time highs snd the company has projected significant increases. Stop the misinformation.

[@henpil7098]

And more losses 😂​@@stephenogrady267

[@MrCasablanca82]

The main issue that attracted me to NIO is the swap. I think it is a very good option and saves NIO owners from degraded batteries. However it seems that Chinese consumers don't care about it, which is bizarre as this is an amazing feature. Am I wrong, or am I missing something.

[@i6power30]

Newer CATL and BYD batteries can last almost 1 million km, well over the life of car. Who cares about degradation?

[@jameskahl1598]

Because the new batteries can last so long it doesn't matter now... unfortunately.

[@MrCasablanca82]

@@i6power30 Source please

[@stephenogrady267]

And if new batter technology comes along or your battery is damage you are screwed.

[@nassifyassine6234]

This company shares they have been control by shorts and analysts. And the company has no ability to do anything about it

[@Lucatube7655]

Who is the interest patient in Neil all done this spending too much money. We need a new CEO fast.

[@vardanarakelyan5214]

Great analysis 👍

[@junqi1767]

Is china economy really bad right now?

[@alexgraf149]

Hopefully no one bag holding from its highs around 2020-2021😢

[@Fliptop95]

Sell then

[@thomascrump1165]

Lol short sellers are hurting the stock

[@Alberto-xw8vx]

Nio is the target of the shorts because America is afraid of what NIO could become... 😊

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

True

[@unclevolli1982]

Nio need sell nio, onvo and new brand in same house, just keep cost down if you sell 1 car in 1 day in every store, why onvo need own stores. Just make for every brand own corner in the shop and save money, our money. And how much nio make with battery swap? Nobody dosnt take this out in earnings never. I dont see any progress in nio right now, and more money spending in small hybrid, we have toyota already. Cant wait nio go back to 10$ and i can get out.

[@jameskahl1598]

You clearly have no idea what you're doing... What you just said makes me so happy you are in no ownership position of this company.. I don't even know why you own this stock if you don't understand the basics..

[@sheldonvandernest7647]

Hopefully BYD can buy us out and rescue our bags.. Terrible management

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

bullshit

[@Fliptop95]

Sell then!

[@fairfeatherfiend]

If BYD buys Nio, you will lock in your losses.

[@sabinaabrahim7786]

This is one worst company

[@adebayokehinde]

If you were better, you wud be ceo of rivian 😂😂😂😂

[@Fliptop95]

Sell then! Bag holder 2020... holding n loading Nio 🪨

[@adebayokehinde]

@@Fliptop95 me too, average was $30 before with 300 shares, now I have 1250 shares at an average of $8.60

[@Christopher-tr1xu]

Then sell and no need to come back to such videos and comment

[@Alberto-xw8vx]

That transforms you automatically in the worst investor...😢(Tell me you aren't the sharpest pencil of the batch without telling...😅)

[@VENGADOR007]

However we want to sugarcoat NIO’s efficiency I think they are failing terribly, projections are over promised and execution is poor or is it simple that demand is not there?

[@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity]

For ONVO its not the demand side but the production ramp that results in current numbers. I always thought ONVO numbers will be what they currently are in the beginning. But I guess you guys have different expectations, partly maybe also triggered by some management statements. However, I think they will meet their December goals. I don’t know where those super high expectations and fast scale targets are coming from. Not from me ..

[@alexrich9202]

By the way NIO has grown vehicle deliveries over the past 5 years by an average of 50% per year. Where are you getting this metric that they are failing terribly. Management puts out very bullish benchmarks that they don’t always hit but they are still growing relatively fast

[@MrCasablanca82]

@@alexrich9202 It is an issue of perception, If Nio says that they will deliver 72k too 75 K in Q4 and they don't, it will be perceived as a failure even if their actual sells are higher. Investors like positive surprises not negative ones even though we should look at the actual sells increase.

[@VENGADOR007]

@@alexrich9202 there, delivery numbers for November disappointing aren’t they? 15k main brand now they need at least 30k to reach the lower protected numbers to be in line, over promised like I said

[@Fliptop95]

Thanks for the video Marcel! Nio 🪨

[@Fliptop95]

Nio is doing everything right! Right investers CYVN, GOV, right vision moving forward, BAAS!!!!! Long play and currently manipulated heavily! I keep holding and loading!!! Nio 🪨 💪💪💪💪💪💪

[@captainreza1]

Correlation does not mean Causation. The Cause for NIO's downfall is poor decision and "prioritization" of the development by the management. Period! They should "balance" the expansion of costly BaaS in accordance to the usage and traffic, with some margin to accommodate the future traffic. new US admin, with illiterate but aggressive China Trade negotiators is another catalyst for the fall, but again the argument ia applicable to the entire Chinese. As you mentioned Macro is a big cause, but it is applied to the entire EV industry and not just NIO. Comparing NIO with Nikola which is a bankrupt, constantly diluted (stock), and criminally charged entity is Wrong. You don't have to look for excuses to simply justify the poor execution of NIO management. William Li needs a wake up call. Who is going to make the call :o) Cheers!

[@Christopher-tr1xu]

Invest in something else

[@captainreza1]

@@Christopher-tr1xu didn't ask for your advise kid.

[@Christopher-tr1xu]

@@captainreza1 didn't have to, it's free 😉

[@stephenogrady267]

So much disinformation in your post, I don’t knoe where to begin.