Why Probability Can Save Your Life

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Dive deep into the volcanic landscapes of Naples as we uncover the awe-inspiring Campi Flegrei, a colossal volcano with a history of massive eruptions. Not far from the well-known Vesuvius, this ancient caldera poses a significant threat with its potential future activity. 🌍💥
In this video, join our thrilling discussion on the fascinating world of probabilities. How do we calculate the chances of a volcanic eruption? 🤔 Is there a method that can predict such catastrophic events more accurately? From Bayesian to Frequentist and Propensity probabilities, discover which approach can best estimate the future activity of Campi Flegrei. 📈🧠
We'll also dive into philosophical and statistical questions like "Will the sun rise tomorrow?" and explore how these seemingly simple questions relate to predicting volcanic eruptions. 🌅➡️🌋
🔬 Featuring a blend of historical data and advanced probability theories, this video is perfect for those who love science, nature, and the thrill of unraveling the mysteries of our planet. Whether you're a stats geek, a history buff, or someone fascinated by nature's power, you'll find this exploration both enlightening and terrifying.
👍 Like this video if you enjoy deep dives into science and nature, and don't forget to subscribe for more thought-provoking content! Have questions or insights? Drop a comment below-we love engaging with our community! 🗨️💡
🎥👉 Watch now to see how understanding probability helps us prepare for and possibly prevent future disasters!
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#VolcanoEruption, #NaplesItaly, #CampiFlegrei, #Volcanology, #ProbabilityTheory, #BayesianProbability, #FrequentistProbability, #PropensityProbability, #NaturalDisasters, #EarthSciences, #GeologyRocks, #VolcanicActivity, #EruptionPrediction, #ScienceEducation, #STEMLearning, #NatureLovers, #HistoryBuff, #DisasterPreparation, #EmergencyManagement, #StatisticalAnalysis, #ScienceExploration, #RiskAssessment, #DataScience, #ScientificResearch, #PredictiveModeling, #GeographicalStudies, #EnvironmentAwareness, #ScienceAndNature, #EarthquakePreparedness, #DisasterAwareness, #ScienceCommunication, #VolcanoWatching, #Geophysics, #SeismicActivity, #VolcanicHazards, #CatastropheModeling, #HistoricalEvents, #AncientCaldera, #ScienceVlog, #EducationalContent, #NaplesVolcanoes, #VolcanicRisk, #SurvivalTips, #PreparednessTips, #EmergencyPlanning, #NatureDocumentary, #LearnGeology, #EarthAndEnvironment, #EnvironmentalScience, #ClimateChangeAdaptation
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Vesuviuscommons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Vesuvius 2, I, Pastoriuscommons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi... commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Solar system
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Electroncommons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Music:Bushwick Tarantella di Kevin MacLeod è un brano concesso in uso tramite licenza Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Source: incompetech.com/music/royalty-...
Artist: incompetech.com/

[@pedrums1989]

The end 😅

[@NaN_000]

What is the probability that moon fall on earth tomorrow? 🤔

[@dibeos]

Good question. Do you have any guess?

[@shaunmodipane1]

plus or minus 13 Billion years.

[@rileythesword]

For the uniform probability distribution is p a specific value, or we just assume it to be a specific number? Also does this type of calculation only apply to binomial outcomes, ie. It happens or it doesn’t, can this be extended to events with three outcomes

[@dibeos]

Hey there! So with the uniform probability distribution, we don’t pin down p to a specific value. Think of it like a blank canvas where each potential value of p is equally possible within a range. It’s as if you’re saying, 'I don’t have a clue about the likelihood of this event, so let’s say that all outcomes are equally likely to start with.' And yep, you can totally extend this kind of reasoning beyond just 'it happens or it doesn’t' scenarios. For situations with 3 or more possible outcomes, there’s a fancier version called the multinomial distribution. The principle stays the same, we’re just adding more slots to the picture. Hope that clears things up!

[@rileythesword]

@@dibeos yeah, I’ve dealt with multinomial theorem in math before and knew it could be used in this way but I never connect the dots as to its application. Now I understand! Thank you

[@dibeos]

@@rileythesword yeah, it is really fascinating. You’re welcome 😉

[@mr.liphut2774]

you have to make a new channel because you don't get many views on such cool videos.

[@dibeos]

Thanks for calling my videos cool! Let’s pray to the KZbin algorithm to promote it :D

[@narutouzumaki2157]

Nyc

[@narutouzumaki2157]

First

[@dibeos]

And we hope not last ;) see you in another video